Potential HOFers for active players
 

Hi

I saw an article on this an this is John Stark’s of the Athletic

https://l.smartnews.com/p-JpcNe/OUlPcg

And the article has the details and other categories like “ I wish there was a path”, “was in the red zone”, and case closed

Thanks for posting the list.

I think they could have easily expanded the list to include Pete Alonso (could make 500 HR club), Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Christian Yelich, Jose Altuve, and Xander Bogaerts.

I think Goldschmidt is pretty much a lock at this point.

I would agree Goldschmidt, is a lock. I think when it's all said and done he's considered better than Votto.

As a side note, it's a shame what has happened to Giancarlo Stanton. Injury Bug has really derailed a Hall of Fame career. Of course there could always be a miracle, and he manages to be healthy for the remaining 5-6 years of his career, but I thought he was going to be a lock for at least 500 homers and the Hall of Fame, a few years ago. I still think he can get to 500 Homers, but the Hall seems out of reach at this point, in my opinion.

I cannot see Yelich making the HOF. Altuve and Correa have forever been tainted by the WS cheating incident. I will be appalled if they make the HOF and PED users are left out. What hypocrisy that would be. --I advocate for inclusion of PED users, for transparency--

As for Jayson Stark's list, I am shocked Votto is considered a lock, and I am a Reds fan. In comparison to his 1st Base contemporary peers, he is pitted against Miggy Cabrera and Pujols. There are still lots of critics of Votto who just don't care about the OBP darling. If he was on a powerhouse team, say the Yankees or Red Sox, his stats would certainly be more padded than they currently are. So he has that going for him. But his numbers 2000 hits / 345 HR / 1100 RBI are nowhere similar to other 1st Basemen that are producing at higher levels. I agree with the prior posts -- there is a chance that Goldschmidt will outshine Votto. In my own projections, I think Votto is a last year on ballot type selection, or even a veterans committee pick.

On a different subject, look at the list of LOCKS for pitchers. WOW. Eye popping.

I missed that Altuve is already on Stark's list, sign stealing by Houston, notwithstanding. And if you're going to include Altuve, I don't see how you leave off Correa. Correa is only 28 and has already put up some great numbers.

DeGrom?

Tatis should be on the get back to me in 5 list IMO.

I don’t think either Greinke or Votto are “in right now”. If either of them get in I think it will be after a few years on the ballot.

Greinke has 77 WAR / 220+ Wins / nearly 2900+ Strikeouts. That is about the best that a modern pitcher can hope for. He's a lock.

For comparison, Kershaw has 77 WAR / 203 Wins / 2876 K.

I would feel very safe wagering on Greinke and Votto, though I agree they likely won't be first ballot choices.

Tatis, Jr is not mentioned by Stark, probably because of his PED suspension.

Perhaps, but I doubt it will keep him out 25 years from now should he have a great career.

You may be right that eventually there will be enough writers who don't care. I just started a new thread with a poll about who will be the first voted in with a PED suspension. Could be Tatis.

Kershaw win pct .690- Greinke.605
Kershaw ERA 2.49- Greinke 3.44
Kershaw ERA+ 156- Greinke 122

Kershaw also has 3 Cy Youngs.

Greinke was good but hes not in Kershaw's league.

Joey Votto?

Yeah I don’t see a comparison to Kershaw. Clearly a superior pitcher despite the stats picked. I think Greinke will get in after a while like Rolen did but that doesn’t scream “in right now” to me.

Agreed to me a VOtto should not even be on the list

Votto really benefits from advanced stats and his ability to walk. But even though those stats are often cited as justification I can’t help but feel like there is something artificial about Votto in the sense that he isn’t really that good.

I think Greinke is a lock now. There are not 300 game winners anymore. Kershaw is not the standard of a HOF SP.

DeGrom is probably a no. He is 35, has pitched 4 complete seasons and still struggles to actually pitch without getting injured. Even by today's standards of starting pitchers, he barely plays. He's won 10 games 4 times. He's pitched 1,356 innings. I have to assume more than 25% of voters will look at stats that are not rate stats and notice he's barely played.

Votto seems likely to get in and has the momentum. Pujols and Cabrera are not the standard for a HOF 1B and never have been. Mickey Mantle is not below HOF standard because Willie Mays was better.

Altuve and Correa will likely come to politics rather performance, and politics in 20 years is unpredictable.

Yellich is 31 and has been average to alright for 4 years now. I am not seeing how this is a realistic candidacy at this point. Who was the last guy to make the HOF on the basis of 2 years performance amidst a career of mediocrity?

Goldschmidt is getting very close to a lock.

Yeah, I didn’t realize just how bad Yelich has been since his two monster years.
He has little hope at this point of making the HOF

Selfishly, I'd like to see Votto get in so the rookie card of his he signed for me in 2008 will be worth more, but I doubt the BBWAA considers my net worth when filling out their ballots.

Judge will need to stay healthy; his best two seasons have been his rookie year, and his walk year. Call me a cynic, but I'm not optimistic that someone as large, old, and injury-prone as him, having just signed a fully-guaranteed monster contract, will suddenly become more durable.

If Correa is still in the running, isn't Lindor?

I do not think either are even close to being in the conversation

Lindor 38 WAR and he isn't even 30 yet I don't think.

I think Correa and Lindor are both in the conversation (see post #2).

I think people forget how rare it is to be a good fielding shortstop who can hit.

Correa has the 4th highest OPS+ of any shortstop ever at 127. Wagner is #1 at 151, ARod is 140, Arky Vaughan is 136, then Correa. Ripken and Yount are at 115. Correa is having a down year and his rate statistics will probably deteriorate with age, but he is only 28 and already has a WAR of 39.8.

Lindor has 4 top 10 MVP finishes and a WAR of 38 and is only 29 years old.

Neither of the Puerto Rican shortstops are shoe-ins by any means, but if they have solid years into their mid-30s they have a serious chance of getting in.

If Harper wins a third MVP (only 30 years old) he can retire immediately and be in then. I guess he's somewhere between "in right now" and "on the path". Hard to see him not reaching 500 homers. Even if he averaged 20 a year and played till 38 he'd have almost 450 of them.

That's exactly where Stark put him on the list.

Sorry I meant “red zone”. I think of all the players he listed there Harper is the elite player and ahead of everyone else with him. A third MVP clinches and he could retire the next day a HOFer even if it were next season. The rest of the list will need to compile to get in.

Looks like a pretty reasonable list to me. At first I was thinking Machado might be rated a category too high, but this 6.8 WAR season last year I think rightly pushes him into the "red zone" category.

Fyi, came across a similar article by CBS sports' Matt Snyder that is a much more exhaustive list from the beginning of the year: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/w...s-with-a-shot/

He also has Votto as a lock.

In addition to Lindor, Correa, and Bogaerts, he mentions two other shortstops that are on the outside looking in--Corey Seager and Trea Turner. Like the others, both could sneak in with a few more great years.