Would you buy a high end (10k) raw card?
 

Love to hear opinions on this.

Example: Let's say you had the opportunity to buy a raw T206 Cobb that was worth 10k for a fair price. Would you do it? Caveat: no guarantees from the seller on what the card would grade, only that it is authentic.

Edit.. you can view in person and examine.

My thought is that 80-90 percent of collectors would not buy that card ungraded, even it was a good deal. I just think it is the era we are in.

I think you will get 2 very different responses if you ask that question on this board and if you ask that question on a random facebook group. My experience board members here are going to be far more trusting of their own instincts where as other groups can't believe raw cards exist that aren't fake. Personally, I've topped out at $5k for a raw card but wouldn't have a problem going higher if I knew the seller or the card was rare enough. I'd be less inclined to do it from a random stranger or for a run of the mill T206 Cobb, Goudey Ruth, etc.

Depends on a lot of things. Can you view it in person and check it very close? if not, depends on who seller is and how clear of pictures you can get. What you think expected value is if graded or authentic?

If it was an exceedingly rare card I'd be way more inclined as opposed to an easy to find type of card.

My wheelhouse here would be postwar vintage, but yes - I trust my instincts and knowledge there for raw cards I buy like at the LCS that I can inspect first. I'm not spending thousands of dollars, but have bought more than a few $500 range cards that way. Online, I'm more inclined to look for a slab just for peace of mind.

No chance for me, not good enough to determine alterations. Authentic, yes , altered, no.
That being said , I have bought a modern Cobb Auto from Flawless, (still encased in original flawless holder w/ sticker) for 9K.
Thomas

I would not buy a 10k raw card with no guarantee of a numerical grade. I bought this 2k one recently and was guaranteed it is not altered. If the seller wouldn't have agreed to guaranteeing, I would not have bought it..

No, my wife would kill me. Everything after that is moot. :D

Cheers,

Butch

Added to the post, you can view in person and examine.

Absolutely not. Why would anyone sell something that is genuine and unaltered in raw form when they could profit significantly more if it's graded. There are no free lunches!!

It would depend on the buyers familiarity with the particular issue, if they feel they can determine fakes, alterations etc..., and how much of a discount they feel they're getting as opposed to buying a graded one. Unless it was a rare card or issue I knew very well and felt I was getting a nice deal from a seller I was comfortable with I probably would not. But under right set of circumstances I may bite, and more so if it was a rare issue.

Unless I knew the seller personally and they could vouch for the ownership history and that it wasn't altered, then no, I wouldn't do it.

I'm making assumptions, but my guess would be that seller may have purchased it in an "authentic" slab, and cracked it out because it has good eye appeal.

Hence, he can only guarantee it's authentic and nothing else.

I agree - Every single high dollar card I have has been slabbed and graded. "High Dollar" means different things to different people. For me high dollar probably starts at $500. Slabs tend to give me a sense of "better protection" (maybe a false sense?) so the grade to me isnt quite as important as the protection and the bonus of a "better valuation".

would you invest in a place that promises you 10% returns?

basically you can always get away with one buy being legit..but in the long run if you do 10 of them..you are going to lose in the long run

why is there always some key card in some KSA or other strange holder when can be in a PSA holder.

Now for low end cards, the costs of grading are prohibitive and i can understand huge discounts versus graded ones

This would be my fear as well. If you’re positive it’s at least authentic and the price of the raw is less than what authentics go for, that could be an option.

In general I have confidence in buying raw cards with examination, even ones online. What I don't have confidence in is my bank account. At that level, which I have never come close to even considering a purchase, I would question everything my eyes and experience would be telling my brain.

I think my hands would also be shaking, and I would possibly end up damaging the card.

Brian

I agree - Every single high dollar card I have has been slabbed and graded. "High Dollar" means different things to different people. For me high dollar probably starts at $500. Slabs tend to give me a sense of "better protection" (maybe a false sense?) so the grade to me isnt quite as important as the protection.

Nope...not even for a moment, if I'm investing that much. I'd need a guarantee from TPG or that it will grade relatively accordingly to condition from the seller or I can return it.

Bill

It depends…I might? Early on during the pandemic I spent almost 40k on raw cards off eBay. It turned out just fine for me.

This is where I am as well. I would buy it if it was being sold for the going price of Authentics but probably not much more than that. Also agree that I would have to view and handle the card in person first.

The only real answer here is "it depends" and it really does, on a lot of factors.

Yes and I have done it. I knew the issue very well and did it from scans. The owner was a respected guy in the hobby. So, that helped in giving me confidence that he had the card in hand. I should note that in this case, the card was rare enough that its value was not based on its technical grade (which was pretty low).

As for a card where the difference in grade would amount to the difference between $1k and $10k for example, I'd be much more tentative.

I definitely would but there has to be some guidelines. I would prefer the transaction in person or from a known/reputable hobby person if not in person. The value would have to be in the A/1 range or the card would have to come with a numeric guarantee based on a value of a perceived higher grade.

ALL of my cards are raw, and will stay that way. I couldn't give a hoot in Hell if no one wants to buy my cards, because they're not for sale, though I have made a couple of successful trades. I do not care if another human thinks my cards are fake or altered or whatever. I truly could not care any less.

In person if I can see and hold the card.

Yes. I trust my own evaluation than a TPG. That said, I don't buy high grade stuff either, so if I were buying a grade rather than a card, my opinion on the matter might change.

I would not buy a Raw card at that high $ value.

For several reasons.
1. I am not experienced enough to tell with my own eyes/judgement
2. I do not sell cards often but when I sell or trade cards most people are more comfortable dealing with something being authenticated and graded. as a result the market for it is tougher with a smaller crowd of people dealing in raw cards.
3. The casing also helps protect which is an added value
4. For me to get and get it slabbed with a company will cost me more money and time and for the unknown of what you are getting

This sounds vaguely familiar...if only I could turn back time...

This.

And yes, I've purchased many high value "raw" cards...all of which are so rare that condition didn't matter. I've certainly made a few mistakes over the years, but in the long haul, I've come out ahead from trusting my instincts and learning how to spot fakes, etc. after years of doing this great hobby.

I never have and likely never will pay $10,000 for a single card, but if I were going to, I wouldn't limit it to graded cards.

This.

Aye Chihuahua Mierde !!
 

; Don Pedro -- damnnnn-- ; you owe all of us on here a helluva thread and some kickbutt pictures. I personally will buy you a hot dog and a diet Pepsi at the next National . . Gracias , amigo.

..PS , I want to show your post to TheWidowGarcia and point to it and proclaim loudly " SEE !! ",..ummm , yeah... but I prolly won't. MG54

..

The caveat that you may hold it and examine in person means there is no reason not too. I am certainly fallible and may make a mistake, but I see no evidence PSA and SGC make less mistakes than I do. I will trust my detailed examination over some guy at PSA looking at it for 30 seconds.

I have paid $10K for a batch of 5 raw cards without getting to exam them in person. Worked out just fine. Would do it again. The amount of cards I would pay $10K for is very, very small. There's only 1 or 2. Being raw wouldn't be an obstacle.

More generally, I think a lot of it would depend on the item. A nice condition card of a very common commodity item raises more red flags raw than an obscure/extremely rare card for which the condition is not of much concern. Getting to exam in hand though would waive this doubt for me.

Amen to this, exactly.

I will add that I have cracked out all the graded cards I have ever had, and I know others who only collect raw cards just like me. I love this forum, but it is thoroughly dedicated to those who invest in graded cards.

Not something that I do often, but several years ago I purchased a 52 Topps Mantle #311 raw from someone I had never met. I purchased the card for $2500 cash. He seemed like a nice man and knew a lot about cards. He showed me pictures of several other vintage cards in his collection. A couple of weeks later I hand carried the 52 along with a 53 I had to PSA for their walk through grading service. At that time it was $100 per card. I waited for a couple of hours, had lunch, and returned to get my cards. Both the #311 and the 53 graded a PSA 1. The #311 had some small paper loss on the reverse, but otherwise was a good looking card. I sold the 52 about 6-7 years ago and still have the 53.

Yes, I purchased a 52 Topps Mantle #311 raw from someone I had never met - and it was authentic!

I bought this Yellow Chance raw (it now its in an SGC flip, I think a 3). Seller guaranteed a numerical grade, but no minimum (could have come back a 1 and I was stuck). This is not the first big boy card I have acquired raw.

I also bought an entire E107 set raw, which includes several cards that are worth over $100k each and many 5 figure cards (see examples below). The set now sits in SGC flips.

My decision to buy a raw card depends on several factors, including, among other things, who the seller is, if it is brokered by a 3rd party and who that is, if I inspect it in person, price, and whether the seller will guarantee me a numerical grade.

Generally speaking, I strongly prefer to acquire cards that are already graded and I am generally skeptical of high-dollar cards that are not graded. But some people do not grade and could care less. Those people exist and you cant let a good one get away when the facts and circumstances are right

I would buy a t206 Wagner raw at $10k as long as i can inspect that in person.

This attitude has made a lot of people a lot of money the past decade. I mean if every real/unaltered high value card was already graded there would be no more being graded. Yet we have new to the hobby, first time graded, big deal cards hitting all the time.

I respect your position but when did we get so lazy as hobbyists that we can't spot alterations ourselves, and what have the TPG's done lately to prove that they can?

FWIW I'm talking about cards that we know and collect. I feel very confident in buying raw, OPC vintage hockey for instance. I wouldn't feel so comfortable buying pre-war BB without a ton of research.

Buy
 

If you can see it in person and your gut says it’s good and a great deal. I would go for it.

This is why I probably wouldn't do it, although who the seller is would be a factor as well

Hell NO.. Nuff said..

How about a $10,000 raw vintage unopened pack ?

Yes, under the right circumstances, including that I know the seller to be of high integrity.

Yes I would. I trust my own determination of the card more than any grading company.

Yes for me, but only if I could examine it in hand in person.

Yes, but only if we can make the exchange in person, on a stormy night, in an abandoned warehouse somewhere in Cleveland...

Like Ryan said, if the parties involved are known, honest, and have integrity, sounds like a fun deal to me.

Fraudsters are very sophisticated and technology at their disposal is only getting better. I think the only way someone does a deal on a raw card at that price and feels comfortable doing it is if he or she is confident in it but is also getting it at what is perceived to be a nice discount from what the cost would be slabbed. Obviously the older the card the better. Harder to fake 100 years old than it is to fake 40 years old.

Anything of that value, the seller should be so confident it will pass grading for number or authenticity they offer a 30 day return. Conversely, the buyer should be so skeptical it is not authentic, they should send it in for expedited grading. If passes, win-win. If doesn't, can return to seller, no harm no foul.

Would you trust buying a house on your own eyeball examination and decline the services of a professional home inspector?

Would you buy an expensive car and trust your own personal examination and decline reviewing the car fax report?

Would you buy a franchise from someone and just examine the books yourself, or would you hire a professional accountant who does it for a living?

There are people on the board of who are 100% certain of their own powers to avoid fraud. I am not one of them.

Twice in the last decade I have bought counterfeit items from auction houses that are held in the highest esteem on this board. Honest mistakes that were fixed but still mistakes.

When you've been engrossed in a hobby you are passionate about for 40 years you develop expertise. Sadly with the mass slabbing of cards fewer and fewer people...especially those just entering the hobby in the last 20 years will never hold raw cards in their hands. They will never feel the nuances of varying paper/cardboard stock. They put their trust blindly in minimum wage employees at the grading companies. It's comical to me the attitude that all cards of value should be in slabs and if not they can't be real?

So anyway...per mikes request...here are my purchases. Both from EBAY...1 from a long time dealer/seller...the another from a widow.

The first was a grouping of 5 blue bird babe ruth cards. When I first saw the listing I thought...how crazy...to be selling all 5 together. Seller claimed these were acquired from the "find" of blue birds in the 80's I believe. Prior to this "find" this issue was virtually unknown to the hobby...and likely part of the reason they did not command much respect until the last few years.

It was a BIN...actually a fairly reasonable BIN...but I made an offer...and it was accepted.

The other I heard of through a facebook group. Someone posted questioning the authenticity of a raw E95 Wagner on ebay. I checked it out...it looked grreat to me...so I jumped on it. I then emailed the seller and asked if she had others. She had 2/3 sets of e93/e95 plus a smattering of a few dozen other random cards. I made a deal with her for all of it. She also "threw" in a bunch of other cards inclusing t205 cobb/johnson and a 33 gehrig.

I was nervous as hell waiting for all of these cards to arrive. When I had them in hand I knew they were all legit.

My plan was to sell most and keep a few...which I did!