Raffling off a T206 set?
 

My apologies if this has been brought up before. I realize it's rare that complete (520) T206 sets come up for sale or auction. I think it would be a great idea if an auction house or dealer or collector would raffle a set off. Each raffle ticket would be for one random card in the set. Maybe it could take place at the National to be all above board. It certainly would get a lot of attention.

As I try to get to the coveted 520, I would welcome the opportunity to "win" one of the pricey cards. The question is what would I pay?

$100 is a no-brainer. That's 52K for the owner.
$200 is also a no-brainer. And 104K for the owner.
$250 I'm still in. 130K for the owner.
$300 is where I have doubts. 156K for the owner.

These seems like good prices for the owner assuming a low grade set, like A's and 1's-2's if graded.

There are 20-30 cards that stand out value-wise. Probably nearly another 100 or so that command a premium over commons.

Assuming $250 a ticket...
There's a small chance (~5%) you would be ecstatic with one of the biggies. Another 100 (~18%) people would at least get a card that has good value ("regular" HOFers, SL's). Sadly, nearly 400 (~77%) would be "stuck" with a common. A $250 SGC/PSA 1 T206 common is definitely a loss, but I'd take it for the 1 in 20 chance of a Cobb, Demmitt, Matty, Cy Young, et al. And I wouldn't feel too "ripped off" with a Jennings, Griffith or a SL in a 1 or 2.

So what do you think? Am I crazy in thinking there would be 520 people willing to pay $250 a ticket? Is that way too high or low? What would you pay? Would graded vs. raw make a difference, assuming you could see the cards?

I don't recall seeing an idea like this, but I may have just forgotten.

I'm not sure of all the legalities, but I would love to see it.
And I'm not even much of a gambler.

Depending on the condition of the set would 100 guys buy a $1000 ticket to win the whole 520? I'd certainly be in on that one.

Way more than 1000 guys would buy $100 tickets for the whole set.

But that would reduce the odds of winning.

Right, but what would be the perfect combination of buy-in and entry cap to maximize the take for the raffler (trademark pending on “The Raffler” for a super hero name… or maybe super villain).

What the OP is describing isn't a raffle, it is a Break, just like all the Breakers do online. Wouldn't be a bad idea as many people would take a chance on getting a Cobb, or other valuable cards, for a very low amount. And the worst case scenario is they end up overpaying for a card that is still valuable, and could continue to grow in value over time. With a raffle, it is all or nothing.

Would be an interesting question/experiment to see how much people would pay for a chance to in a raffle versus a break. As one poster mentioned, with the raffle there is no limit to the number of people that may get involved, but as the number rises, so do the odds of winning.

I was assuming 520 tickets sold. You buy a ticket, you get a card.

A T206 set break at that price level would sell out in seconds


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a Dutch Auction for 520 total tickets would be an interesting idea. Then you aren't "underselling" by charging $100 each for 520 tickets if the market would command a higher price.

Then after you have 520 tickets sold, you go through the set alphabetically and do a random number generator for each card, after your number is called, you are removed from the subsequent drawings.

As the "Raffler" TM, I would value the set, add 20% and divide by 10, 50, or 100. Personally, I'd go for 10, easy to find 10 guys who would take a $12,000 flyer with 1 in 10 odds to win a 520. Of course the requisite pencil mustache, black top hat and cape would apply.

I would pay $250 for a 1/520 ticket