Willie Mays
 

I believe we can all agree (I know, this is Net 54) that Willie Mays is the greatest living ballplayer and certainly among the top 5 of all time. I know nothing more than he is 90+ and in good health and long may he continue to be so.
I have watching the price movements of his vintage cards for about a year and it is clear to me that the gap between Mantle and Willie's cards is shrinking. For example, in the current Premier Auction, or whatever they call it, there are 2 beautiful PSA7 1951 Bowman RC's of both. At the moment, Willie's bids are around 9k ahead of the Mick. Early days, but I have never seen that scenario before. Perhaps due his longevity collectors are beginning to realize what a fabulous player he was.
I actually had the pleasure of seeing Willie play in 1954 when my Dad took me to the old Polo Grounds for a game. He electrified the field.

I grew up in an AL city, Washington, but saw Willie at an all star game towards the end of his career. As a kid, it was a thrill.

Unfortunately, this is how I see it...

422. Mourning Track Power
Buying up cards of a very old former player, for the sole purpose of selling them at exorbitant prices on the gigantic bubble that will surely come after he passes away.

The price disparity between Mantle, Mays, and Aaron cards is crazy. One Mantle card typically costs more than the combined Mays and Aaron cards in the same year and grade. Most have Mays and Aaron ranked higher on all-time great lists, yet it’s almost a two-to-one price ratio with the lesser player having the most value. Obviously, there are several factors that contribute to this, and I understand them, but it’s still astonishing. I’ll personally take two cards and the better players over Mantle.

This is purely anecdotal, but it seems like there is a growing separation between Mays and Aaron as well. In my memory they used to be on par, but it feels like Mays draws a premium over Aaron in most sets.

I think there are a couple of factors with Mays closing the gap on Mantle. Advanced stats have given us a better appreciate for how good Mays was (and specifically how much better than Mantle he was over the course of their careers). I also think the population who grew up idolizing Mantle are aging out of the hobby or dying off. Younger collectors don't have direct memory of either player, and largely rely on the numbers to decide who to collect and how to value them.

^^this^^

This

Somewhere, on Net54, I posted something about Mays being the best ballplayer I ever saw play in person. I had not recognized that until I perused Bill James's Historical Baseball Abstract (I still think its best form is the original edition, hardbound). At that point, I reluctantly let go of the idea that it was Stan Musial (seen in one game in 1963 and thereby becoming a lifelong Cardinals fan), and that instead Willie Mays was better. I saw Mays play in the old Sportsman's Park, then the cookie cutter Busch Stadium, and also in Candlestick once. Willie was entertaining along with his greatness. He'd break late and slow on a ball close to him, he seemed to always catch the ball while moving. He could hit, hustle, run bases, drive in runs, he was a force out there. I have a handful of his cards from his playing days. None are mint nor near mint, they're maybe VG-EX... A couple I collected as a kid, I think the rest were gathered after he was voted into the Hall.

George Davis is a subject in the T206's. In the late 1980's I was looking through the T206 lists, and I realized Davis wasn't in the Hall. But to me it seemed like he should be, and that maybe one day he would be. I think I bought 2 of his cards, and then waited. And he got elected!!! I sold one maybe 2 or 3 years later. And then I sold the other a few years later when I sold almost all of my white border cards.

Point is, I've bought cards anticipating someone getting elected into the Hall. But I've not bought any cards anticipating someone would die. I'd not thought about that before, and I'm sure people will buy cards anticipating that, but I don't think I will be doing that.

Where's the evidence of this narrowing Mantle Mays gap? Seems in line to me with what it has been for a long time

1965 PSA 8 Mantle last 5

/23/2022 $3,995.00 8 175118348292 eBay mjschillaci Auction 49865113
1/11/2022 $4,516.00 8 363674561810 eBay probstein123 Auction 55018495
9/28/2021 $3,859.20 8 543 Lelands Late Summer Classic 2021 Auction 20094480
8/12/2021 $4,212.75 8 366 Mile High Card Company July/August 2021 Auction Auction 12581809
7/31/2021 $4,301.00 8 144119876379 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 09074020

1965 PSA 8 Mays last 4
12/12/2021 $1,499.00 8 234332009171 eBay pb19991 Auction 23502925
11/29/2021 $1,246.79 8 265410046760 eBay 4_sharp_corners Auction 06025614
11/25/2021 $1,567.00 8 373794998777 eBay probstein123 Auction 11205557
11/9/2021 $1,619.00 8 384478175189 eBay probstein123 Auction 41747188

More the gap I was thinking of were cards between !951-3 in exmt and above. The example I used in the current PWCC auction, fresh as it is, was something I had never seen before, 2 RC's, same PSA grade, the same auction. I am sure Mick's card will top Willie's by auction end but an interesting moment, nonetheless

True, it feels like the gap is closing but the data does seem to show mantle and mays are acquiring value proportionately

The fact that you're picking their rookie and earliest year cards, and in a very high condition, is exactly the kind of cards the flippers and investors normally go for. And because of that, and I hate to say it, but Jollyelm may be right on the money and there is possibly a deathwatch on Willie Mays, with people just waiting to take advantage of his passing so they can dump his cards at a big profit. Or it could be people anticipating the rise in the value of his cards when he passes, so they're possibly looking to buy them now before prices go up even more.

Either case, it may have a lot to do with his age and remaining life expectancy.

Isn't the fact that he is not going to live forever already priced in? :eek: I mean who is going to say, damn, he really died, now I need his rookie card?

Bob, I have to agree on all points and it just makes me sad that there is a segment of the hobby that is on sort of a death vigil for Willie. My point in making the post was that in the early going of the PWCC horserace of RC's that Mays has a 2 length lead, something I have never seen before.

John,

Definitely agree, but we both know how people can be when it comes to making a buck. A lot of them will do anything, including taking advantage of someone's passing and the sentiment and memories it evokes in others. It turns out to be one of our not so admirable human natures, but it is what it is.

It could also be possible that the recent deaths of Kobe and Aaron, and the immediate skyrocketing of their rookie cards has caused Mays collectors to accelerate their rookie grail card plans for fears of being priced out completely in the event of his death. It only takes 10-30 newly motivated buyers to dramatically change the landscape for high-end vintage cards. My grail card, the Joe Jackson Cracker Jack, has gone from "I will plan to save up for a nice PSA 4 in a couple years" card to a "can I tolerate a BVG "authentic" poster cut/blank back with 15% of the right side missing" question. I imagine there are many Mays collectors that see a hole where the 51/52 issues are supposed to go that feel like their options might be slipping away if they don't act now and outbid the competition.

Well, you and I may think that, but don't forget we're now dealing with a lot of younger flippers/investors who are looking for even the slightest advantage, like a hot stock tip. And what are you doing being a bit contrarian with me? :rolleyes: You know as well as I do there are always going to be some people coming out of the woodwork when something good or bad happens to famous people/athletes. Just like when someone pretty much everyone knows is a lock for the HOF, you expect their cards to have already been priced at their HOF level long before they ever actually get in. And yet, when the actual election occurs and their induction is confirmed, you still always seem to see a jump in interest and price for the cards/items. Human nature in that there will always be people who need that trigger, like someone's passing, to re-create interest in that person. LOL. Just the way it is.

Exactly!

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet, but there's also another factor in play which is that HBO is going to release their documentary on Willie Mays this year. A lot of people are buying up his cards while they still can. It's not always about "making a buck". His cards are going up. They've been going up for a long time now. High end vintage in general is drying up. If you want his cards, yesterday is the time to get them. Despite the outpouring of nonsense to the contrary though, don't feel bad for buying a Willie Mays card. It really doesn't make you a bad person. Honestly, it doesn't.

Welcome back, Snowman!

I'm looking for a 53 and 58 Topps Willie Mays PSA 7-8 !!!

His cards IMO are highly undervalued along with Hank Aaron.

It's interesting to watch....

IMO These are the Have the Most Upside Growth with lowest Downside Potential. Plenty of other great names I left out. IMO these is the 5 best to own for the long-term.

Ruth
Cobb
Jackie
Mantle
Mays

What's the deal with the dozens of Mantle and Mays rookies on eBay listed at $1.00 opening bid but with a note that bidders aren't welcome?

One more scam.

Same hacker has been hitting eBay hard for a while now. They usually also list several Rolex watches. I put in low bids and then report them to eBay. Luckily they always get taken down quickly if you report them as trying to skirt eBay fees.

There's a FOMO factor to a lot of superstar cards right now, especially for cards that have 'only' gone up 300% in the last two years. I'm amazed what "A" cards get now; collectors just want in on some issues.

A little off topic compared to the price talk but I am a lifelong Yankees fan and my father grew up right outside NYC in the Mantle days.

I always considered Mays top 4 all time but
It is only very recently I've come to appreciate what an amazing player he really was.

It was this past year that I realized he actually missed all but 20ish games in his 2nd and what would have been 3rd years in the Majors due to the Korean War. He hit 41 home runs his 1st season back.
With that missing time he very easily could have eclipsed 714.
How did I not know that and how is it not talked about more?

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I've got a bit of this FOMO going on right now:

1) I'd like to own more Mays cards than I currently own.
2) The prices of his cards will very likely increase significantly when he passes.
3) I'd rather purchase them at pre-death prices than post-death prices, in the same any collector would rather pay 2018 prices for the items they pursue, than 2022 prices.

What I'm feeling has a lot to do with an expected price increase upon his passing, but it has nothing to do with me wanting to profit from that event. i hope that makes sense.

And a card..
https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...e7edb044_c.jpg

There was a thread like this about a Mays and Mantle card on the PSA threads a little ways back— it was about how in a Memory Lane auction, a PSA 9 of the 1961 Mays was blowing away the price of the PSA 9 Mantle after a few days of bidding.

When it was all said and done, the Mantle sold for double the Mays. Who knows what happens in this new instance based on these two cards in question, their relative eye appeal, who is bidding, etc., but I think judging any auction by early bidding is always tough to do.

That said, anecdotally I have seen guys looking to grab Mays cards now due to his eventual passing; some fearing a price spike and others just blood merchants looking to flip at that time— the latter is a bit dark yet it is just part of the card world I guess.

I’ve been a Mays collector for awhile, you can definitely see the uptick in prices. But I don’t see a huge jump when he passes. I feel like this is already starting to get baked in. I think people have been trying to “get in” before his passing for awhile now, Mays stuff shot up after Aaron passed. I don’t expect a huge jump when it happens, but as someone eluded to earlier… human nature will prevail. My bet is that bump will be short lived and prices will settle quickly. What you’re seeing, IMO, is more what the original poster was eluding too.. a gap closing between Mantle / Mays.

Could someone claiming a narrowing gap post evidence please? Subjectively I am not seeing it and I am not counting aspirational BINs. My post on 65T (admittedly one card one grade only) doesn't seem to support it.

+1 !

You should go back and see what other players missed out on due to WWII. Names like Feller and Spahn, and even Ted Williams. In fact, Williams was one of the few people to actively serve in both WWII and the Korean War. He effectively missed about 4 years of his career serving in the military.

Johnny, I dont understand you or many of your posts. Aren't you the same "Blue Collar Guy" who started an entire thread about how expensive the hobby has become and how you are no longer buying? Indeed, less than three weeks ago, did you not say:

"As a regular blue-collar guy with a family of 3 I can no longer pay these numbers."

"I would love to continue to collect as I have for years but it’s gotten out of my league." AND

"I’m gonna be blessed and happy with what I have and step away from buying for my collection."

It was wrong of me to throw a flag in your BST post, my apologies. But come on man - three weeks ago the sky is falling and now you are touting the investment benefits of cards and bragging about what you are trying to buy?

Goldin just sold a PSA 4 1952 Topps Mantle for $120,000. Two sales prior in that grade were 63k and 90k. The Mays from the same set, same grade, last sale was 7500. Before that, 10.2k and 9.1k. It doesn't look much different in gap as the grades go up, either.

Even in the signed card realm, the record high for a signed Mays ROOKIE is 31.2k. A 1952 Bowman Mantle signed just sold at SCP for 39k.

I think Willie Mays was an astounding ball player. Nothing but respect for the guy. But card wise, the prices of his cards vs. Mantle are what they are.

I'm well aware of the WWII guys, Feller, Dimaggio, and especially Williams double service.

Williams in particular is mentioned often as having lost time to the wars often in boards, mainstream media etc. I personally just don't recall hearing Mays mentioned in the same way (not in my era anyway).

Was just surprised about that considering he was in striking distance of the all time HR record.

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One of my favorite cards, the image is art.
_

It is a beautiful card. I am having a piece of artwork of that card being made now.

Wow that is one outstanding example. So hard to find centered that well.

That ones been around a long time, the only card my dad and I ever bought together when I was a kid.

I think folks are aware of it but you're right, from what I remember, that it's not mentioned as often as the Williams time lost due to service. And I always thought the almost universal conventional wisdom was that Mays was the all-time #2 greatest, just behind Ruth. Surprised to see that some folks didn't necessarily think that.

It just occurred to me that Willie Mays isn't in the 1953 Bowman set. Does anyone know why he wasn't included? He is in the 1952 Bowman and the 1954 Bowman. What happened in 1953?

I think 2 is probably right because of his defense. But lots of prewar collectors like Cobb and put him higher.

And boy are Hank Aaron's offensive numbers hard to argue with.

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He didn't play in 53 because of Korean War. Probably that's why. Only played 22 games in 52 also.

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Okay, that makes sense.

Ruth is clearly the GOAT the difference between his WAR and that of the next closest non-pitcher is more than the career WAR of quite a few HOFers. if you take it as just WAR as a position player, he and Bonds tie, with Mays and Cobb next tier down (about 10 wins lower); I wouldn't quibble with any of Bonds, Mays or Cobb being #3, though my gut is that Mays has the best argument among the three, given when he played and what he did not ingest. Aaron, my personal fave, is just enough below that tier to be out of the running for #2 but definitely in the top 5.

Thread needs a different card:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...per%20Mays.jpg

But he is in 1953 Topps so that doesn't explain it to me. Jackie isn't in 53 Bowman either.

My bad then, wasn't sure you were aware of how many players had missed time for military service.

Maybe Mays had an exclusive contract with Topps that year, or Bowman couldn’t get a color photo to use since he was away?

Th only time I saw him was in 72 or 73 I believe? I'd have to check ticket stubs and box scores. I went to every Sunday day game at Dodger Game with my Grandfather from 71-76. Field Level, row 4 behind the dugout looking up the 3rd baseline.

I'll always remember my Grand Pa turned to me and whispered, "That's Willie Mays". Pointing him out as if I needed to know who he was for some reason. (Like he did the day they retired the big 3-Dodger's numbers and I sat next to Casey Stengel). I remember Mays dropped a fly ball in center and got picked off first base that day, LOL.

I read somewhere he only dropped 2 fly balls in his career. I have been truly blessed in this life. Good times.

That’s amazing. Reminds me of when I went to see Ripken in Camden with my family when I was a kid. We are from Rochester which was the longtime AAA affiliate of the Orioles so my brother loved Cal. He went 0-3 through the first 6 innings, all bad looking strikeouts. My dad, not a baseball fan, said they pay this guy how much?!? Well sure enough the got up in the 9th and just killed one. I still remember the crack of his bat. Sounded powerful.