Predict the grades? $20 for "closest to the pin" guess
 

Thought I'd try something new (at least new to me... probably done here before).

I have these 9 cards that I may submit to SGC for grade to be able to sell so I can buy more great cards here from fellow Net54 members

If you experts don't mind predict the grade each card will get from SGC and I'll pay whomever gets closest to the most right (or near right) a cool $20 bill... (probably Paypal, F&F)

Totally making up a point system here:

Correct grade = 100 points
Miss by 1/2 grade = 50 points
Miss by 1 grade = 25 points
Miss by more than 1 grade = zippo points

If there is a tie, will ask Leon to pull name out of his favorite baseball hat to pick the big $20 winner.

(speaking of Leon... I hope this is OK! Just thought a little contest with small prize might be fun and helpful. I think the kids call it crowdsourcing, right?)

Please list predicted grade for each card:

51 Bowman Doby
57 Topps Lemon
80 Topps Henderson
60 Topps Kaat
51 Redback Kiner
48 Leaf Kiner
58 Topps AS Musial
93 Topps Jeter
62 Topps Billy Williams

9 cards, 9 guesses... let's see who has the best SGC eye?

Only 1 guess per member…

Fun!

51 Bowman Doby: 5
57 Topps Lemon: 8
80 Topps Henderson: 9
60 Topps Kaat: 9
51 Redback Kiner: 10
48 Leaf Kiner: 3.5
58 Topps AS Musial: 7.5
93 Topps Jeter: 10
62 Topps Billy Williams: 5.5

Sorry, meant to say… asking you to predict grades for all nine cards… make sense?

Guess
 

Here we go:

6
6
9
7
7
4
7
9
7

I hope I am wrong they are all + 1 !!

51 Bowman Doby - 4
57 Topps Lemon - 6
80 Topps Henderson - 7
60 Topps Kaat - 8
51 Redback Kiner - 6
48 Leaf Kiner - 5
58 Topps AS Musial - 7
93 Topps Jeter - 9
62 Topps Billy Williams - 6

51 Bowman Doby 5
57 Topps Lemon 7.5
80 Topps Henderson 9.5
60 Topps Kaat 7.5
51 Redback Kiner 6
48 Leaf Kiner 5
58 Topps AS Musial 7
93 Topps Jeter 9.5
62 Topps Billy Williams 5

Game
 

Here are my guesses:

7
6
8
7
7
5
6
9
6

Great cards!

1 Bowman Doby: 6
57 Topps Lemon: 8
80 Topps Henderson: 8
60 Topps Kaat: 8.5
51 Redback Kiner: 9
48 Leaf Kiner: 4
58 Topps AS Musial: 7
93 Topps Jeter: 9
62 Topps Billy Williams: 6

And I should probably set a deadline… let’s call this a Boxing Day contest (ie, the day after Christmas, December 26th, 9:00 pm EST

I’ll submit to SGC early next week and will report back to this thread once I get’em back

Jeff

Contest grades
 

Doby 6, Lemon 5, Henderson 8, Kaat 5, Kiner 5, Kiner 5, Musial 6, Jeter 9 Williams 5. Thanks Joe

51 Bowman Doby - 4.5
57 Topps Lemon - 6.0
80 Topps Henderson - 8.0
60 Topps Kaat - 7.0
51 Redback Kiner - 5.0
48 Leaf Kiner - 5.0
58 Topps AS Musial - 6.5
93 Topps Jeter - 9.0
62 Topps Billy Williams - 4.0

I hope you do better than my predictions!

51 Bowman Doby 5
57 Topps Lemon 5.5
80 Topps Henderson 8
60 Topps Kaat A
51 Redback Kiner 6
48 Leaf Kiner 4
58 Topps AS Musial 6
93 Topps Jeter 7
62 Topps Williams 5

51 Bowman Doby 3
57 Topps Lemon 5
80 Topps Henderson 7
60 Topps Kaat 3
51 Redback Kiner 3
48 Leaf Kiner 4
58 Topps AS Musial 5
93 Topps Jeter 7
62 Topps Billy Williams 3

I hope I am wrong and they all get better grades

51 Bowman Doby 7
57 Topps Lemon 8
80 Topps Henderson 9
60 Topps Kaat 7
51 Redback Kiner 4
48 Leaf Kiner 5
58 Topps AS Musial 6
93 Topps Jeter 9.5
62 Topps Billy Williams 4.5

51 Bowman Doby - 6
57 Topps Lemon - 6
80 Topps Henderson -7.5
60 Topps Katt - 6.5
51 Redback Kiner - 9
48 Leaf Kiner - 3.5
58 Topps AS Musial - 8.5
93 Topps Jeter - 8.5
62 Topps Billy Williams -6
Always fun to guess how things will comeback.

Yikes! Me too…. Hope Kaat is not trimmed!😳

SGC Grades......
 

SGC

51 Bowman Doby: 3
57 Topps Lemon: 5
80 Topps Henderson: 7.5
60 Topps Kaat: 7.5
51 Redback Kiner: 7.5
48 Leaf Kiner: 3
58 Topps AS Musial: 5
93 Topps Jeter: 8.5
62 Topps Billy Williams: 4.5

Thanks! Mike

PS Just a thought, since you have a group of cards, it might have been fun to add up your grades when they come in and see who is closest to the TOTAL. this would tell you who was really the most consistent. Just a thought for the future! Thanks again!

51 Bowman Doby - 3.5

57 Topps Lemon - 6

80 Topps Henderson - 6.5

60 Topps Kaat - 6.5

51 Redback Kiner - 4.5

48 Leaf Kiner - 2

58 Topps AS Musial - 4.5

93 Topps Jeter - 8.5

62 Topps Billy Williams - 4

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk

Fun!!!!

Henderson 9

Lemon 7

Doby 6

Leaf Kiner 4

Red Bk Kiner 6

Kaat A

Billy Williams 6

Jeter 8

Musial 6

Thanks for all of the predictions so far! And Merry Christmas to all Net54ers who celebrate… let’s see your predictions! I’ll figure out how to do a summary of the range of predictions by card tomorrow when this little game ends.

Enjoy the day, all!🎄🎅🤶

51 Bowman Doby - 5
57 Topps Lemon - 8
80 Topps Henderson - 9
60 Topps Kaat - 8
51 Redback Kiner - 8
48 Leaf Kiner - 4
58 Topps AS Musial - 7
93 Topps Jeter - 9
62 Topps Billy Williams - 6

'51 Bowman Doby - 4.5
'57 Topps Lemon - 7
'60 Topps Kaat - 7
'80 Topps Henderson 8.5
RB Kiner - 8
Leaf Kiner - 4
AS Musial - 5
Topps Jeter - 8.5
'62 Topps B. Williams - 6(MC)

Allow me to preface this by saying that I have no idea what I'm talking about:

Doby: 6
Lemon: 7
Henderson: 9
Kaat: 9
RB Kiner: 8
Leaf Kiner: 3
Musial: 7
Jeter: 9
Williams: 4

Beautiful cards.

And let ME say that I hope YOU are right! 3 9’s would be AOK by me!

Jeff

Thanks for all of the submissions…. Last day to predict is today so let’s see who has the SGC expert eye here

I’ll send a summary once the deadline passes so you can see the range of predictions for each card

Thx and happy Boxing Day to all!

1 Bowman Doby - 5
57 Topps Lemon - 6.5
80 Topps Henderson - 8
60 Topps Kaat - 6.5
51 Redback Kiner - 8
48 Leaf Kiner - 5
58 Topps AS Musial - 7
93 Topps Jeter - 8
62 Topps Billy Williams - A

51 Bowman Doby - 5
57 Topps Lemon - 6
80 Topps Henderson - 7
60 Topps Kaat - 6
51 Redback Kiner - 4
48 Leaf Kiner - 4
58 Topps AS Musial - 6
93 Topps Jeter - 8
62 Topps Billy Williams - 4

Doby 4.5
Lemon 6.5
Henderson 8
Kaat 7
Kiner 7
'48 Kiner 4
Musial 6.5
Jeter 8.5
Williams 4.5

Thanks for the contest!

51 Bowman Doby 5.5
57 Topps Lemon 7.0
80 Topps Henderson 8.0
60 Topps Kaat 6.5
51 Redback Kiner 9.0
48 Leaf Kiner 4.5
58 Topps AS Musial 7.5
93 Topps Jeter 9.0
62 Topps Billy Williams 4.5

51 Doby - 5
57 Lemon - 6.5
80 Henderson - 9
60 Kaat - 7.5
51 Kiner - 8
48 Kiner - 4
58 Musial - 6
93 Jeter - 9
62 Williams - 6

Almost done!
 

Ok, this has been kind of fun so far! Thx for all of you who have submitted your SGC predictions… with about 40 mins to go in the “contest” here’s a summary:

23 submissions so far

51 Doby - high of 7, low of 3
57 Lemon - high of 8, low of 5
80 Henderson - high of 9.5, low of 6.5
60 Kaat - high of 9, low of A (ouch! Hope not)
51 Red Back Kiner - high of 10 (woot!), low of 3
48 Leaf Kiner - high of 5, low of 2
58 AS Musial - high of 8.5, low of 4.5
62 Williams - high of 5, low of A

Thanks again, all… this group of 9 will be heading in to SGC tomorrow and I will DEFINITELY post the results when they come back to see who is our big $20 winner!

Thx again all…

Jeff

Contest closed…
 

Aaaaaand scene!

No more submissions since it’s after 9:00… will report back when grades come in

Thx again!

Jeff

Thanks Jeff!
 

I'm shipping a group from Vermont on Monday as well, it will be interesting to see how close they come back in terms of days. I wish I had done the same thing you did but mine have been packaged since Thursday and I chose not to send them over Xmas weekend as I thought they would just sit somehere!

Thanks for the opportunity for a free Andrew Jackson! You could just send the winnings to me now but I won't get too cocky! lol

Peace, Mike

I think I'm ineligible now, but I'll still post for fun.

51 Bowman Doby - 5
57 Topps Lemon - 5.5
80 Topps Henderson - 8
60 Topps Kaat - 7
51 Redback Kiner - 7.5
48 Leaf Kiner - 4
58 Topps AS Musial - 6
93 Topps Jeter - 9
62 Topps Billy Williams - 5

Results are IN! Guess the grades...
 

Just got word that my SGC grades are in... and the averages of all submissions were pretty close in some cases, and over quite a bit on a couple.

(Drum Roll please...)



Guess Avg/SGC Actual
51 Bowman Doby 5.1/5.0
57 Topps Lemon 6.5/5.5
80 Topps Henderson 8.1/8.0
60 Topps Kaat 6.5/5.0
51 Redback Kiner 6.7/5.0
48 Leaf Kiner 4.1/3.0
58 Topps AS Musial 6.4/6.5
93 Topps Jeter 8.7/8.5
62 Topps B Williams 4.9/5.0

So, looks like our little crowd-sourcing Net54 grading experiment yielded

Nailed it! - Doby, Henderson, Musial, Jeter and Williams

Respectable - Lemon, Leaf Kiner,

Come ON SGC! - Kaat, Redback Kiner


(I'll be back later with how we can figure out who wins the $20 "closest to the pin" guess the grade... I'll probably ask each submitter to calculate their own points - see value at the original post - and I'll double check the math of the self-reported winner. Sound like a fun way to spend a Friday night??)

Fun experiment - thanks to all who played along!

Jeff

1951 Doby = 5
1957 Lemon = 6
1980 Henderson = 8
1960 Katt = 7
1951 Kiner = 5
1948 Kiner = 4
1958 Musial = 6
1993 Jeter = 8
1962 Williams = 6

I am usually a fairly poor guesser on these type of contests, but here goes anyways...

51 Bowman Doby 5.0
57 Topps Lemon 5.5
80 Topps Henderson 8.0
60 Topps Kaat 5.0
51 Redback Kiner 5.0
48 Leaf Kiner 3.0
58 Topps AS Musial 6.5
93 Topps Jeter 8.5
62 Topps B Williams 5.0

Crossing my fingers!

Brian

This reminds me when my mother in law would be watching the Red Sox and see the replay of the HR that was just hit and would start to yell, “Oh my god! They just hit another one!”

(But thx for playing anyway, Brian… your submission is just a touch late!)

Jeff

100 points

51 Bowman Doby 3
57 Topps Lemon 5
80 Topps Henderson 7
60 Topps Kaat 3
51 Redback Kiner 3
48 Leaf Kiner 4
58 Topps AS Musial 5
93 Topps Jeter 7
62 Topps Billy Williams 3

I put mine in as well....I did not see the grades and had no idea they were posted. I am an above average grader and could honestly be working for any of these grading companies, but I can't afford the pay cut.

Looks like I got 525 points. Fun game, thanks for posting.

475 here. 3 hit dead on, 3 within a half, 2 within one, and the 1960 Katt was off by 2 whole grades.

As the OG poster here, I’ll tally the submissions that made it in within the time period to see who wins my Andrew Jackson… something to do tomorrow during our upcoming Snomageddon!

Bingo....
 

I still feel as an overall "best guess" you should have added all the grades up to see who came the closest. That is because I'm pretty good at getting an order "guessed" as a whole.

In fact, your total grades = 51.5
My total grades guess = 51.5

No surprise to me!

I lost however based on the exact guesses. I am a supremely confident and accurate loser! :)

Thanks for the contest! :)

Mike

It looks like I am the likely winner...each one of my guesses had bullseye accuracy. Maybe there is a spot for me at one of the grading companies. Perhaps in the post-grading label checking department.

Brian

Brian (duplication of my name accidental, but quite appropriate)

This would be a terrible way to gauge which guesses were the most accurate. The total sum means nothing. You could be miles off with every card and still get the same total. If you want to "improve" the scoring algorithm, you should use the root mean squared error. Whoever has the lowest RMSE is the most accurate. But it doesn't matter anyhow. The OP already set up the scoring. It's directionally accurate and fun.

That pretty much describes my professional reputation as well… directionally accurate but fun.

lol
 

If I had been 6.5 grade points "over" on the entire order I'd probably take the same stance as someone who was about 10% off on the entire group.

At least I admitted my faults in my post! lol

:cool:

QUOTE=jcmtiger;2178307]Doby 6, Lemon 5, Henderson 8, Kaat 5, Kiner 5, Kiner 5, Musial 6, Jeter 9 Williams 5. Thanks Joe[/QUOTE]

AND WE HAVE A WINNER!

Joe (Cobb spikes high) scored and impressive 575 points… Joe got 4 of 9 exactly right (Hendy, Kaat, Kiner Redback, and Williams) and was close on most others.

We’ll done Joe! PM me your PayPal info and I’ll send your $20 winnings straight away.

Thx for playing along, guys… (and if anyone runs their own numbers and thinks they beat Joe’s 575 pts, please let me know)

….now, anyone want to buy some newly graded SGC cards??!! (Actually, funny thing is that I already sold the Henderson, Kaat and Musial!)

Happy Saturday all - maybe we’ll do it again soon.

Jeff