Considering Population Numbers....
 

It's crazy how many auctions and posts and everything there are over some cards, when there's really- in absolute terms- very few of them!

Just look at the Goudey Ruths. yes the prices went nuts, but doesn't it feeel like they're everywhere? Every auction has like 5 of them now. But according to the PSA pop numbers, there's really only a few hundreds TOTAL. Doesn't that kind of melt your mind a little? Consider how many people are in this hobby, then consider how many big shots own 2,3,4,5,6 of those cards themselves. This stuff is really rare!!!

Are there any less famous cards that amaze you when you see population reports? I have a couple nonbaseball cards in single digit total pop but I also know there's probably 3x as many raw floating around (Specifically thinking of the N2 Chiefs set, where it's not crazy to have all the PSA slab owners in a booth at Dennys).

Funny you should mention it
 

The other day I looked at the 33 Goudey 144 Ruth with a combined pop (PSA and SGC) of I think about 2,000 cards - my first thought was that is a "large" supply. Then for the first time I started thinking how many collectors and dealers have been at the nationals I've been to and the larger regional shows and the many multiples of collectors and dealers who weren't there. Then throw in the new investors and all of a sudden for a player who's name is synonymous with baseball and a card that is essentially one of the "poster cards" for the hobby and all of a sudden 2,000 examples started sounding like a ridiculously small population compared to all the people who would likely like to own one!

Some other incredible cards with REALLY low pops

1921 Ruth Exhibit - Combined pop under 200
1933 Delong Gehrig - Combined pop 329
1968 3D Clemente - combined pop 79


There are many INCREDIBLE cards with single and low double digit pops - I am fortunate to own a few - I have found however that the incredible limited availability often seems to hurt the cards market value - presumably because they are so obscure - most collectors "don't bother" putting them on their wantlists or "radar".

Just checked the 1959 Home Run Derby Mantle on PSA and SGC, and there have been only 50 graded (41 by PSA and 9 by SGC). Again, very low for a popular set and a somewhat popular player.

By no means, could all of those owners fit in one booth at Denny's and be properly socially distanced. Just sayin'. :rolleyes:

Graphic example of supply-demand relationship. The demand for the Goudey Ruths far outstrips the demand for the 1921 Exhibit Ruth, so the scarcer card sells for less.

I don't really put much into the graded population reports. The number of people who crack and resubmit over the years I'm sure has greatly inflated the numbers.

There was some guy I saw on Blowout I think, years ago, who submitted the same card four time to BGS purely to see how consistent it was. Each time it got a different grade ranging from NM/MT to Gem.

Prices are high enough these days that it’s drawing more copies out into the market then normal as people decide to cash in.

Every Goldin Auction that runs these days is full to to the hilt with high quality grail cards that you never used to see for sale.

I think we really only scratched the surface. I have the feeling there's many older collectors out there, in there in the 60-80 age range that have incredible ungraded collections. I don't go by the pop reports, they're probably inaccurate.