Ok, we've all been speculating . . . .
 

Where will the market be in a year? I'm checking back in 2/27/22.

I'm sticking with my stance that in general we'll see somewhat of a correction but the prices on high end vintage will remain strong. Your Lower graded stuff will come more back to earth.

But this is all speculation on my part, I also though Bitcoin was going to collapse and quickly sold my two after they doubled from 400 to 800 some years back. So maybe don't take advice from me :D

I’m optimistic the COVID card mania will end this summer, when things start to fully open back up. There will be less dollars chasing the same card supply (or even an increased supply if the purely COVID collectors sell off) which will significantly drive prices down.

I can’t see people, who have been cooped up for a year, foregoing a nice vacation, live ballgames, concerts, or other experiences, because they want to sit in their house and still purchase expensive cards. The entire market will significantly correct, even the high-end items, other than the rarest of the rare.

If I were a seller, I think the last call is almost upon us.

I am confident that every card on my want list will increase at a stupid rate and become more difficult to find. I do think that once we have more to spend money on things will stabilize. I don't think prices on the big names are going to correct much.

As long as investor groups have a part in auction houses the high end vintage stuff will keep strong.

A benchmark quality card in our vintage arena - the T206 Cobb red, PSA 5 (no special back) is about $10.k right now +/- for centering. In a year do you all think this card will be more, same, or less?

My guess is this price will stabilize at this point, slightly higher odds of it going up a bit vs. down.

The sheer quantity of post-war actually out there amazes me - never thought I would see in a single auction a dozen '54 Banks, or similar. My guess here is prices may either stabilize, or dip a tad. Might be a time to sell this stuff.

Modern, just can't see it keeping the upswing outside a few iconic cards - Jordan RC type stuff. When I have time after tax season, I will be selling this stuff (getting a PSA sub back soon).

Steve - what do you think?

I look at it this way. The reason the condo market in Florida crashed is because it was built solely upon investors selling to each other at ever greater mark ups. Nobody was buying a condo to LIVE IN IT. The utilitarian buyers were priced out and made other plans until the market corrected

If nobody is buying cards at inflated prices because they actually want to keep the card, how can the same thing NOT happen? You need a baseline of people who want to pay "x" for a card because they love the card. While investors certainly move "x" in any market, when they are the only ones seeing value at multiples of "x" it's only a matter of time and finding out what "x" actually is again.

As long as short term rates remain at near $0 I think it is a lot more fun owning cards/memorabilia than having it sit in a bank earning nothing.

Treasuries did jump over the last few weeks, but I am not sure we will see that sustain for a while.

As a side note, I am not looking at this as an investment, but clearly plenty of the new buyers are in that mindset.

Like others have said, my personal investing history belies anyone relying too heavily on my crystal ball . . .

I think truly rare, highly desirable major iconic prewar cards will continue to appreciate in the next year. Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb. Also Jackie and Clemente.
Investor groups will buy these like they'd buy a small company or some kind of investment vehicle. Don't see that ending.

I think the modern era rookie stuff, say like Rickey Henderson PSA 10s, will correct sharply. I think same for Michael Jordan stuff. I don't think people realize how plentiful that stuff is.

I hope really important vintage memorabilia and photographs appreciate, but it doesn't seem like that's where the focus has been with the big speculator crowd.

What I'm most fascinated with is the modern modern crowd. The guy who spends $180,000 today on a Jasson Dominquez card. A DUDE WHO HASN'T TAKEN AN OFFICIAL SWING YET IN ORGANIZED BASEBALL IN AMERICA. ON ANY LEVEL! Does this turn out to be an uncanny amazing purchase, or does someone piss away a real chunk of change. Honestly, unless you are Bezos or Musk, that's real money to take a complete flyer on. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Am going to keep the good stuff, pretty much earmarked for my retirement a solid decade or so away, think prices will be just fine by then...I hope.

Ha, too funny - I just sorted some junk on top of a filing cabinet. There sits a handful of 1989 Hoops M. Jordan's - not even in penny sleeves. I think I robbed the sleeves to put with other more valuable cards few years ago. Just looked on ebay - the prices these now bring, even in PSA 9, holy cow! What a crazy market is is right now. There must be a zillion bjillion of these cards out there.

The lebrons im selling for 36 k will be 33 k ,,i mean cmon

Lol

The fact of the matter is no one has a clue what's going on in the sports card market, it's all speculation. The way prices continue to rise I certainly don't see a crash for quite some time, if there is one. The only thing that makes things crash is fear and panic. Right now I have no fear or panic at all. Frank

Ever hear "be fearful when others are greedy"

Modern started the fire, and modern will end it. Same as it was in 1989-1992. The feeding frenzy in modern attracts the easy money newbies and some of them start looking at vintage and putting some of their profits there. Right now there is a terrible bottleneck at PSA, especially on bulk orders. I suspect that people are paying a premium to get a PSA modern card as compared to raw relative to what they could pay when the PSA python finally digests the submissions puppy and craps out untold numbers of PSA graded modern cards, many of which are going to swell the pops of 8-9-10. What happens to prices as the number of available cards swells will dictate much of the rest of the answer, I suspect.

My $.02 is that as the submissions of 3/2000 and on start being returned and listed for sale, the demand will slacken on those cards and prices will stabilize then start to drop. People holding highly appreciated items will start taking profits, and prices will decline.

I am keeping the best guys: Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, etc., first-tier HOF RCs like Foxx, and selling into the rest. Selling my slabbed postwar and replacing it with much cheaper raw, if I replace it at all.

We didn't start the fire!

Maybe he did...

I sold almost my entire collection last year (a good chunk of it pre-covid unfortunately) and bought the cards I could only dream of as a kid. Williams, Musial, Aaron, Koufax, Clemente RC’s, Paige Bowman, my first ever T206’s etc etc. Waited too long for the Mays RC and missed that boat. After deliberating for the past few weeks I finally decided to move my small amount of 80’s RCs even though it seems I missed their recent peak. Selling off those cards will render the rest of my collection “free”. It would cover the costs of my previous collection that funded last years dream purchases. The prospects of that outcome are just too good to pass on. Eddie Murray RC PSA 9, Rickey PSA 9, Gwynn PSA 10, Griffey PSA 10, Trout Update PSA 10, Soto Gold PSA 10. If I ever get nostalgic for those RC’s of my youth I can buy a nice 8 or 9 down the road.

I think a Red Cobb PSA 5 with a common back and without serious issues listed at a BIN of $15K on eBay would sell within 24 hours. So I will take the over on $10K a year from now. I am at more like $20K.

It would be great to pick a few cards and list the now price and then we all guess at the price in one year on each card. Use cards that have a lot of sales.

1) T206 Red Cobb
2) T206 Green Cobb
3) 1933 Goudy Babe Ruth
4) 1851 Bowman Willie Mays
5) 1954 Topps Hank Aaron
6) 1968 Topps Nolan Ryan
7) 1989 Fleer Bill Ripken FFace PSA 10

This list plus or minus a few cards would work as they all sell in a lot of volume.

[QUOTE=bnorth;2074820]It would be great to pick a few cards and list the now price and then we all guess at the price in one year on each card. Use cards that have a lot of sales.

1) T206 Red Cobb
2) T206 Green Cobb
3) 1933 Goudy Babe Ruth
4) 1851 Bowman Willie Mays
5) 1954 Topps Hank Aaron
6) 1968 Topps Nolan Ryan
7) 1989 Fleer Bill Ripken FFace PSA 10

This list plus or minus a few cards would work as they all sell in a lot of volume.[/QUOTE

They are all going down, except for the Bull Ripken FF! ;p

I would say the 1851 Bowman Mays has the most upside, being pre-civil war and all.

A card ahead of its time, to be sure.