Wagner Auction
 

Have we talked about this yet? Didn't see it on front page so here it is: https://www.yahoo.com/sports/rare-ho...152712789.html

Can't help but think these prices are not sustainable. I'm probably wrong though.

While I agree many (perhaps most) of the prices recently realized by cards are inflated and/or unsustainable, I do not believe that is the case with the t206 wagner. This card is so rare, iconic, and desirable that each new sale establishes a new comp that will serve as the low water mark/floor for the next sale. In other words, the t206 wagner will not, ever go down.

I don’t take issue with any T-206 Wagner selling for over $1M. It is the granddaddy of them all, and checks all the boxes: (1) legendary player; (2) legendary card set; & (3) legendary story behind scarcity (plus 110 + years of organic scarcity).

It blows my mind that any modern card would approach, let alone blow past, even a poorly graded Wagner. Think about this - A person could almost own three poorly graded Wagner’s for the cost of that Trout card! Only in 2020 is that Trout card worth almost three Wagner graded one cards.

I agree with all of this.

While other “less iconic” stuff could see a decrease, this isn’t that.

I've always found it interesting, but not surprising, how articles like this use the word rare in reference to the Wagner T206. I believe they said some form of rare 6 times in a very short article. There is zero doubt about the iconic nature of this card, the rarity of it in analyzing the T206 set as a whole, the stories, the supply vs. demand, etc. However, as someone that appreciates type cards, there are Wagner cards that are much more rare than his T206 card. Certainly believe the T206 card will only continue to rise in prices though.

Aunt Suzie would probably know what a Honus Wagner T206 is, surely not a Honus Wagner E105 Mello-Mint Throwing. :D

This card isn’t going down.

This is a status symbol and that is only going to continue to attract more interest and higher prices.

It’s a proven winner.

If the size of the collector base increases it may continue to appreciate. If the reverse happens it can go down in price. It's not a rare card, it is just scarcer than most T206s. If you want to see rare look at the 19thcentury. With 60-80 copies the Wagner is scarce at best.

It’s not even the rarest Wagner “T” card. It’s a status symbol piece for the rich that transcends the hobby

Agreed. This card will always increase in value. Let's be honest..it will only be purchased by people that have ridiculous disposable income. And for that type of buyer, a few hundred grand more won't stop a sale. It is widely known; even by people not in the hobby. Articles continue and new buyers with money will always look to buy them if available. There are only 80??? I feel buyers that aren't even sports fans buying one just for the "prestige of owning one. From what I can see..it's reaching a point where the people that own them could care less about the money, they just want to own one. I think it's great for the hobby and congrats to anyone that owns one..

I get this card is the symbol of the hobby and "iconic" like no other card. That being said, I dont get why some other rare cards of wagner aren't worth more than they are currently. The 1914 Cracker Jack would be one that comes to mind, nearly as rare as the T206 and from an iconic set.

I get what you're saying but it's not the rarity per se, but the rarity in comparison to almost every other T206 which is the most popular pre-war set (with apologies to 1933 Goudey) If there are 5000 of the average T206 (a number I'm pulling out of my... um out of thin air) and there are 67 Wagners (which I think is the real number) the population of Wagners is 1.3% of that of every other card.

Yes the MelloMint is rarer, but every Mello Mint is rare. The comparitive population of Wagners to others in that set is likely to be over 100% as there's a greater chance a super star like Wagner got saved as opposed to a common.

Also, the collector base Mello is infinitesimal in comparison to the base for a T206. As a percentage that compared supply and demand the T206 Wagner is, in essence, rarer than the Mello Mint.

Like I said, I'm "probably wrong" but $1.4 for a card missing a corner and creases through the face? It's getting to the point that you could buy an actual work of art by a master(1/1) for a similar amount. I think we forget that this is print advertising and not "rare". It literally was printed , cut from a sheet and distributed in a pack of smokes.

Here are some of my rarest Wagners- some are the only ones known, and many less than 5 known. I would rather have the t206 than all of these combined

The card has a 90 year history of only increasing in value. Only 57 known copies. There are far more people who want one. To buy one you are going to have to pay more than the last one sold for or the owner will hold on. The higher they sell for, the stronger hands hold them. Wagner is the safest buy for those with the financial means to do so. Much better place to have your money than Trout or Giannis.

Yabba Dabba Doo!

:eek:

+1000

I love vintage but this is 100% fact.

What was the previous sales record for a PSA 1 AND what did this example sale for the last time it sold??

I made thre times on my Wagner and it’s up about 30% since I sold it..

Just joking around a little with you Ryan, but you already have the T206 Wagner...and all those other rare ones.:eek::rolleyes::D

Simple supply and demand
 

As noted in a number of posts - there are many cards even of Wagner (Look at Ryans post for a nice selection!) that are much rarer (in lower supply) than the T206. That said, the one thing that the T206 set and the Wagner, in particular, have over all those other cards is exponentially greater demand! So there may be 57 or 67 or 80 Wagners, but there are many more than that number of people apparently with both the desire and the means to acquire it and the price continues to be driven up.
Many of the super rare (less than 5 known copies) are so obscure most collectors don't bother looking = lower demand and hence lower price relative to the T206 Wagner.

Here is an old thread that discusses other Wagner cards during his career that are probably rarer than his T206 card:

https://net54baseball.com/showthread...ghlight=wagner

Brian

Not too shabby, Ryan, but I'd be really impressed if your Wags collage included a T214 Victory Tobacco. :D

If I found one, no doubt PSA would grade it as authentic (spoiler alert - T214 Wagner does not exist); very few T cards of wagner exist.

Totally OT- here is a cool article about how/why Wagner and Plank are both super scarce on tobacco card issues even though they were mega stars

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spo...us-wagner/amp/

That's the right phrase. It can't fairly be compared to anything else in the hobby.

The distinction between "rare" and "scarce" needs to be stated, as these words are often interchanged, which can be incorrect and misleading.

A card like the T206 Wagner is SOMEWHAT rare - dependent on what you're using as guidelines for "rare"...
while the card can rightfully be called EXPONENTIALLY scarce, as the number of individuals who covet an example - which is forever increasing - far exceed the known existing specimens.

you are missing two, his rookie Natl copper plate, and his Sporting News following closely. my favorite Wagners such beautiful imagery...are their any other cards/premiums with written descriptions from the playing days even?

Wow, very nice, is that Copper Plate in a full book?

Yes. Rarity is a measure of supply. Scarcity is a measure of demand versus supply. Scarcity is fairly represented in price value. The Mickey Mantle 52 Topps isn't rare, but its book values shows that is definitely scarce.

yes (well, almost full book, was missing 4 of them I had to find separately to complete, which I managed to do!).

my book is led off by this Dummy Hoy. (!). the Copper Plates have Anson, and Ewing, and some other notables, the Sporting News adds Ed Delehanty and Cy Young among many other greats. they are my favorite sets.

I totally agree. I would even go so far as to say that no Trout card should ever sell for more than any T-206 Wagner. I would argue that the Trout card isn’t even as rare.

There are approximately 60 T-206 Wagner cards. That is it. However, there are approximately 1,956 2009 Bowman autographed Trout rookie. All these cards have the same image and the same autograph. The only difference between them are the border colors and some are numbered. That’s it.

There are approximately: 1,000 base/regular autographed cards that are unnumbered, 500 numbered chrome cards, 225 x-factor cards, 150 blue bordered cards, 50 gold bordered cards, 25 orange bordered cards, 5 red bordered cards, and 1 superfractor.

1,956 cards versus approximately 60 cards. I’ll take any Wagner over that silly superfractor that is no different than the other 1,955 Trout cards other than the silly different color border and the 1/1 stamped on the back.

I never understood the copper plates. What exactly are they? Do you have a link to a description/write-up/article? I have looked at a few sporting news over the year - tough to find not ripped (yours is great looking), but I don’t like that BVG is the only company that slabs them. As incompetent as PSA can be (slabbing a clear 1915 CJ reprint), I view BVG as being on par with GAI and I don’t want anything in a BVG slab.

Here are actual dictionary definitions:

Rare - (of a thing) not found in large numbers and consequently of interest or value.

Scarce - (especially of food, money, or some other resource) insufficient for the demand.

By definition they are not very distinguishable. Easy to say Wagner is both rare and scarce. My use of "rare" is specific to our hobby as I've always understood and best explained in David's explanation below. However, we've never quantified the two as a hobby standard. I would consider the Doyle to be rare and the Wagner as scarce but there is no standard to support my assignment.

Ryan, here's a link (https://oldcardboard.com/m/ncpc/ncpc.asp?cardsetID=1241). Basically they were the predecessor to the M101-1 set issued about a year or two earlier. You can tell them apart from the M101-1 as they make no reference to the Sporting News. Instead of being a supplement, they were issued as a bound book (hence my question earlier and why they will have the two holes on the side). Full books are quite rare and unfortunately I believe a dealer destroyed one probably 2-3 years ago to sell them individually. BVG is the only one to grade them as they are too big even for SGC/PSA's holder (maybe not the newest PSA holder?).

Thanks DJ

I would take it over all the Mike Trout super double refractor triple lenticular rookie patch auto die cut 1/1s getting similar money. Nothing against modern, but as soon as the printing press stamps a number and has a current player autograph it, its worth a tin. It just doesn't make sense to me.

this article explains it somewhat. seems like you could get them in a full booklet, or also they came in a larger size prints in smaller groups? I have the larger sized Kid Nichols...

https://sportscollectorsdigest.com/a...late-portraits

I agree that the lack of grading has hurt the "value" for collectors, but I don't care much when the pieces are that large and beautiful. they do look a lot better when not beat up of course. most of mine are in excellent shape, a few are rough (would replace if I could find them better).

it doesn't detract for me if this image of Cy isn't graded, but I guess I do hope that someday PSA does grade them and finds holders, I understand that many collectors want to know its authentic and what they would grade.

We're talking about pieces of cardboard with pictures of people who played baseball on it. Spending millions on such shouldn't make sense to much anyone.

It makes more sense than a painting of water lillie's to me.

To each their own.

Our society highly values collectibles and certain other intangible assets. People can love them because of aesthetic beauty, sentimentality and other positive emotions evoked from seeing them, the status that said societal value gives to owning highly prized ones, the possible investment potential stemming from everything above, and other reasons.

So you could argue that in first world countries of such prolonged excess and wealth for some, it should make sense that we've had some of the "best of the best" items go for more than a million dollars

I think its only a matter of time before some of these other rare key cards start getting more respect and seeing drastic increases especially the way this market is trending. Rare cards of key like Wagners mentioned above, Mathewson, johnson, ruth, gehrig, etc. Also, as some of these modern guys move to vintage they will be drawn to the big names and most likely some of the rarer stuff since that's what they seem to like in modern.

I agree but probably for a completely different reason. These awesome 100+ year old items could have been made last week. I know there are several that don't think it is possible or that they could tell the difference, they are wrong.:)

A gentleman made a complete 17th century Galileo Galilei book. It fooled ALL the experts for years before someone noticed the obvious flaws the forger put into the book on purpose. When someone can do that just imagine how easy it would be to make a simple baseball card. PBS had a awesome special on the book.

Here is a link with some info on the book. https://www.livescience.com/65847-ga...ook-fraud.html

For the modern day "investor", Did you miss the last 10 years?

I realize people have motive to be pumping "investments " but there has been an insane run. I'll push signed cards all day long as they are much more sentimental to me, knowing (maybe) a player actually held his card, and signed for a fan.

Just looking at one past buy

2009 koufax rc psa 7 paid 700, average sales now 3700.

I dont see this as being sustainable, buy could be a plateau. Any little dips will probably be bought up by "investors" until/unless they are forced to sell.

There was a person in the BST section that said they recently bought one. Does anyone know if this was that one?

Ryan did not buy his to flip it if that's who you mean.

Going from that, T213-2, 214, 215 are pretty much the same set, just different backs. So commons should be the same as any regular T213-2...

And similarly for T206 Drum, Uzit, Broadleaf.... Any common should just be maybe $100 if it's pretty nice, less if it's worn.

I could go for that, at least until I get a few...

+1. :eek:

When I began collecting 20 years ago I was told" No one has ever lost money on a Wagner." Twenty years later this has always been true.

Incredible collection of Wagners...but I would rather have all of them instead of just the T206 Wagner. The T206 Wagner kinda bores me (gasp! heresy!)...it would be cool if more vintage cards shared its intense spotlight amongst the general population.

Brian