Are some cards to popular for their own good?
 

I like rare vintage cards. Many members seem to like cards that are readily available in just about every auction. What is your opinion on what will prevail value wise long term...the cards that are truely rare either condition wise or pop report wise, or those that can be had in most auctions as long as you have the funds to buy them?

Ethan, I'm with you in regard to prefering rare vintage cards. But, never forget the rule(s) of supply and demand. For rare vintage cards to prevail value-wise long term, something must happen to bring about a significant increase in demand.

It is almost always about demand more than rarity from what I have seen. So my guess is the truly rare ones, compared to the more in demand ones, will continue to take a backseat in value. I like rarity personally but it sure isn't always the best investment, if that is the goal. This isn't a rare card but prospects are pretty good long term...
http://luckeycards.com/williams.jpg

Value is a factor of the ratio of both supply and demand. With a truly huge demand, even a readily available card like the '52 Topps Mantle will bring huge prices, at least as long as demand from wealthier buyers keeps growing (IMHO, the smart collectors are selling, not buying, at the current price levels). Just for me personally, I'd rather have a very rare Mantle (my '55 Exhibit Postcard back, for example?) than a '52 Topps any day, if I had to choose one to keep. But cards like Ty Cobb's rarest rookies (1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose; 1907 Wolverine News Portrait; 1907 Seamless Steel Tubing) will keep going up and up, while the '52 Topps Mantle has been and will be cyclical, because although the demand is less for the Cobbs, the supply is microscopic compared to the Mantle. It is the ratio of supply to demand (and the rather unquantifiable quality of the demand--whales vs paupers) that rules value. The 1907 Seamless Steel Cobb with Cobb written content which went for $80K plus not too long ago is, to me, a far better investment than what you would get for that amount in a '52 Topps Mantle.

On the other hand, should you plunk down that amount on a PSA 10 '93 SP Jeter, be prepared to lose most of your $$$ in the next 1-2 decades. At some point, demand has to be based on a solid, firm foundation, rather than hype, mist, smoke and illusion (not to mention a mere plastic holder and paper slip bearing a certain number), and there are literally thousands and thousands of this card in very high grades (with little substance to distinguish between the numbers on those slips). Plus. a 115 OPS+ is, at very best, a marginal HOF'er. That mark puts him about 3% better than Alan Trammel offensively (111 OPS+), and Trammel was the better fielder. Jeter was a compiler, whose signature hit was a fisted blooper to right field. Compare that to Mantle's blast against the facade at old Yankee Stadium, or his reputed 565 footer over the left field scoreboard at Griffith Park in Washington against the Senators!

Just my opinion, based on a thorough study of what other collectibles such as coins and cars have done over the last 2 and one-half decades, and the history of what values were and what has happened to them in these areas for decades and decades before that. There is a reason why a '71 Hemi 'Cuda convertible and a 1967 L-88 Corvette are worth in the 2-4 million dollar range all day long--They are each perhaps the most significant example of their breed, and each was made in quantities of 20 or less.


Best of luck to you in your collecting,

Larry

Perfect example: this 1952 Topps Mantle, graded PSA PR-FR 1, is currently at $5,222 on eBay with less than 24 hours to go (auction ending 9.46pm NYC time, 11/11/18).

https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/p...9_1016C3_1.jpg

I'm sure there are plenty of people who can afford to spend this kind of money for one baseball card, but can't afford a high grade example, who would see this as an opportunity to get a 52T Mantle for a "reasonable" price.

In the current LOTG auction there are some rare/unique 19th century cards that are selling for less than a low grade ‘52 Mantle. This shows that demand is at least as important as supply in price determination. However, a small bump in demand for these rare cards typically results in a large price bump. It’s not linear.

I always lean on the rarity side of the spectrum, but there are popular cards that I love and go for as well.

The blue chip hobby staples should be a good safe long term investment I'd think. The demand should always be pretty strong on key classic cards I think. However I think it's awesome holding cards that less than 25 or 10 or so people in the world have, especially of key HOFers!

As stated above it also doesn't take much to move the needle value wise when cards are that rare. One or two more well heeled buyers in the market at any given time can really ratchet up a price on a card when the supply is near non existent! But it's true its a double sided coin in that regard. A buyer or 2 less and value could really dip. No consistent price point comparisons to go on.

So, I'd say for safe investment stick with the classic key cards. Leave those weird rarities for the weirdos ;)

That being said the 52 Mantle is an all time Mount Rushmore classic in the hobby so everyone should try and get one! (Disclosure: the one in current LOTG was mine :D;) )

Demand for the truly esoteric, rare coins such as certain colonials and territorial gold, i.e., fewer than 20 or so in existence has resulted in quite linear and substantial appreciation, decade after decade. See also the book, "100 Greatest U.S. Coins"--great well-known rarities have done exactly the same thing for more than 50 years. Same with rare classic cars (you could have bought all six Shelby Daytona Cobras for $12,000 in the late '60's. Now, they are 8 figures apiece when you can get someone to part with theirs. With cards, just make sure it's a truly significant piece, such as a 1923-24 Exhibit Ruth, Felix Mendelsohn 1917-1920 M 101-6 Ruth (or maybe, just maybe, the 1924-25 Exhibit Champions Ruth), or something like or akin to one of the rare Cobb rookies noted above, and you will see the same results over time. That said, the '52 Topps Mantle, while commonly considered iconic, is quite readily available. Collectibles with those characteristics in other fields have been cyclical, going up and down in value over time. Not my opinion, simply fact. It is merely my personal preference to go after those cards of Mantle and other HOF'ers which few other collectors will ever have in their collection. To each his own, but I believe you are quite wise to pick this time to sell that one.

All that really counts is that your collecting is filled with pleasure. May it be so,

Larry

I can vouch for the fact that weird rarities have very thin collecting cirlces many times. For long term investing (if that is what you want to do) I agree in sticking with big name HOF'ers...

This one is too rare for it's own good too.

http://luckeycards.com/pr308foxx2.jpg

Thanks Larry

Everyone has to remember to collect what they love first and foremost for sure!

Does a half bordered 1923-24 White Border Babe Ruth still count? :D:eek:

I'm like the guy finding one of those few shelbys in a junk yard before it's scrapped I guess.

I like the Foxx Leon, probably the only one of those I've seen