Will a Colorado Rockie EVER be Elected to the Hall of Fame?
 

I have not studied all the away stats for Walker, Helton or any of the current players, but I guessing it would take some really impressive stats away from Denver to make it possible.

What's your opinion?

Also, why would any pitcher, draftee or free agent EVER want to pitch half his games there?

Someone should get to the HALL from the Rockies.

I am not a believer in penalizing a player because of where they play.

Todd Helton should be given strong consideration, as should Larry Walker.

IMO Larry Walker is a HOFer. Even in Colorado you don't hit 360 or better 3 years in a row by accident. I think he was a better player than Andre Dawson and Jim Rice too.

His sabremetric numbers are pretty decent, based on these it would not be a crime certainly.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...alkela01.shtml

Interestingly he ranks ahead of Gwynn in JAWS, Gwynn does not hold up too well I guess because he didn't walk and he didn't hit for power.

I think he probably would have had a better chance with a few more years and a few higher lifetime numbers, he barely broke 2000 hits and didn't break 400 HR although obviously he was of a similar or better caliber than players who did.

ADD Also seems he missed more than his share of games due to injury keeping his counting stats down.

Probably condemned to the Hall of the Very Good along with guys like Jim Edmonds.

I agree with Peter. Walker was an amazing player, but a non-catcher position player that only has one season in which he played at least 144 games is going to have a hard time getting elected. Walker missed over 700 games in his career for various reasons.

With Helton, his road numbers are just not that great. At home he is Ted Williams, and on the road he is Willie Horton. Without Helton ever having played elsewhere, we will never know exactly where he should fall on the list. He could get in, but somehow I doubt it.

I think the Rockies HOFer is going to be someone that puts up all-star caliber numbers on the road. Nolan Arenado?

Helton posted good road numbers. Let's not under sell him.

Yeah, with a quick look, I noticed the difference between Helton and Walkers Home/Road splits were nearly identical with each other.

Walker however did spend his first 5 full seasons playing in Montreal, so I don't know how much it skews things for him on his overall lifetime splits.

It does seem odd that two guys with lifetime OPS rates of around .950 who had no allegations of steroid use, will likely not sniff the HOF. That's a career season for most star caliber players, let alone a career.

Great Discussion, Guys! Just what I was looking for.


Now for the Pitching question:

Pretend you are the agent for a very high draft pick just chosen by Colorado.

Do you have him play for the St. Paul Saints for a year ala J.D. Drew?


or...

Pretend you are the agent for one of the best pitchers in Baseball who just became a free agent and Colorado is offering BY FAR the best deal.

Do you remind your client of Mike Hampton, etc. or tell him you will take half your normal fee if he signs elsewhere?


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Pitchers are such a crap shoot in the draft.

I would almost draft bats, and chase arms in FA. At least then they would have gotten TJ surgery out of the way, or they have held up and won't need it.

SP

If I'm the Rockies, I want ground ball specialists and off speed masters. Those 95 mph fastballs will eventually get hit and go a long ways.

RP

I want heaters in my pen though. That fast ball is going to be nasty after facing those SP.

I think Walker gets in. Maybe not on a ballot, but he will be one of the first Vet committee guys put in. He was too good for too long and the best Rockie probably ever.

I'd trade the 400 homer and 2,000 hit plateaus for 3 batting titles, an MVP and Gold Glove defense.

Batting titles alone won't get you there, Bill Madlock had 4.

Not sure how a player can be punished for playing in Colorado. If it were so easy to put up fantastic numbers, why haven't more players done it?

To be fair, one of Madlock's titles was a strike season. His numbers don't compare to Walker's though. He's at half Walker's WAR, no MVP and no Gold Gloves.

As for the initial question: yes, eventually. Who it will be, I dunno. Maybe Walker by the VC. Maybe Tulowitzki will age well (no indication of that so far). Maybe Arenado ages well.

I really don't think that pitchers should be worried about signing there (nor should agents be worried about pitchers signing there). By now everyone knows that Colorado distorts pitcher performance, and we've even got a good idea of how to adjust for it. Hampton's 2001 was just about league average, once you adjust for the fact that he was playing in Colorado at the peak of silly ball. His 2002 was dismal, it's true, but pitchers man. That could just be the inherent unpredictability of pitchers (as compared to hitters).

Because they don't play half their games there.

There have been a lot of Rockies with big numbers:

Bichette, Galarraga, Castilla, Burke, Walker, Helton, Holliday, Tulowizki, Arenado, C.Gonzalez, Blackmon, Story (last year's Story)

Keep in mind, the Rockies are only in their 25th season.

I hope that you're wrong about Edmonds not getting in.

it'll be up to the committee as he fell of the ballot after only a year or so. IMO, if you are a Jim Edmonds fan, you should be rooting for Andruw Jones to get in as he is only 2.6 fWAR ahead of Edmonds and if Jones gets in, it buttresses Edmonds' case.

ETA: one thing that hurts Edmonds is roids. His best seasons were ages 32-35, that doesn't look very good.

I ding Edmonds for his appearances on Real Housewives. I mean, I uh, heard he's on that show....from my girlfriend.

Shouldn't they have recruited Evan Longoria for that show? Oh, Yeah. That was 'Desperate Housewives'.


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Everybody benefits from hitting in Coors. Larry Walker was no different, but his HOF Standards and HOF Monitor scores are better than average, not to mention he's up there in black ink. JAWS ranks him 10th all time among right fielders, the only one in the top 10 not yet in and higher than 13 who are already enshrined.

He was still a fantastic player on the road and many times as a Rockie hit .300 or close to it away from Coors.

In my opinion, he is a Hall of Famer. He is also part of the Hall of Stats and Hall of Merit.

I cannot imagine Andruw Jones is ever getting in the HOF.

he should, greatest defensive OF'er of all time (and it's not even close) 400 homers, top 10 in CF WAR.

Higher career fWAR than Duke Snider, Andre Dawson, Richie Ashburn.


anyone who is one of the ten best at their position ,all time, should be in the HOF.

A. Jones for the hall is probably a no-go, but he's got an interesting case. By the best way we have for measuring defensive performance, Jones is far and away the greatest defensive outfielder of all time. (Paul Blair and Willie Mays are essentially tied for second, and Jones has about a 33% lead on them.)

There are reasons to be skeptical of this. The way the system works is that it breaks the field down into zones and assigns levels of credit for plays made in each zone, depending on how often someone playing your position makes a play in that zone. (You also lose credit if you fail to make a play in a zone that you should be expected to make given the position that you were playing.) Some people speculate that Jones was able to range out into LF and RF and make spectacular plays that his fellow outfielders would have made anyway. (They were spectacular for Jones because CF to RF can be a long way to go, they would be easy for the RF because he's already right there.) I don't know if this holds water, but it's one criticism of Jones' defensive performance.

Another problem is that we didn't have this zone-based measure of defense for most of baseball history. We did have less accurate ways of measuring defense; but, knowing that they are less accurate, when comparing players across eras we regress the less accurate stats towards average. This means that truly unusual performances (both positive and negative) get overlooked. So Jones might not be as far ahead of everyone else as it looks like he is.

If Jones really was as good defensively as our best defensive stats say that he was, he's well qualified for the hall. If the worries I raised above are on point, then he's a more iffy candidate. (At least on the merits. I agree he won't actually get in.)

The Marlins are in talks to trade Ichiro to the Rockies. He will hit 6 homers there rest of year if he is traded now and most importantly that would land them a former player in the HOF

Andruw Jones has a case for Cooperstown. There is an argument for and against, but you'll be waiting a while if you think he will get in.

I don't think he gets in on votes. But the vet committee will get him in.

That being said, the voters are getting more and more metrics focused every year and this kind of thinking would help the cases of guys like he, Walker and Edmonds.

IMO, if Ozzie Smith is in and Brooks Robinson, Andruw should be too as he was great with the glove and a better hitter than either of them.

Segway to Maz
 

All this defensive HOF focus brings to mind Bill Mazeroski.

What's your opinion of him being in?

Was he that much better than his 2B peers?

How much weight did his WS-winning homer get?

Was he the result of some sort of 'unofficial' quota being used for each position? IE Was he the best of an average lot?


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I agree. It takes more than these awards but at the same time, these can't be ignored.
MLB

5× All-Star (2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006)
10× Gold Glove Award (1998–2007)
Silver Slugger Award (2005)
NL Hank Aaron Award (2005)
MLB home run leader (2005)
NL RBI leader (2005)
NPB

All-Star (2013)
Japan Series champion (2013)

I am not arguing the merits, I am just saying a .254 hitting outfielder will not get in, in my opinion. He really fell off the table at age 30, I can't remember now was it injury?

Maz was a poor choice. He was a great fielder, but also a lousy hitter. I think that the home run made a big difference. FWIW, after he was elected the hall changed the way the vet's committee works, making it much harder for them to elect players.

Think he was offended? - or just glad to be in?


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he started having knee issues.

HOWEVER, he was in MLB at age 19. If he had come up at 22 and played until 38 would anyone have an issue? Instead it was 19-35ish and people think he crashed.

and batting avg? c'mon man, not even the voters use that any more. (and the few that did were purged)

I agree 58th in career 2b fWAR

82 wRC+ is 18% below avg hitter

according to fangraphs' DEF stat he is 3rd all time at 2b with 200.5

Maz was a pretty poor choice who I indeed think was buttressed by one home run.. which is pretty lame really. They already had a display about that home run so it could be celebrated without heavily lowering the HOF standard by putting him on.

He basically did nothing after age 30 though. Up to that point he had phenomenal numbers.

still, top 10 CF'er all time, one of the 3 or 4 best defenders of all time at any position. that has to mean something.

Koufax left early......

Yeah, he did, as did Jim Brown, but they left on top as legends. Andruw left with five horrible seasons including two under .200. We'll see, time will tell I guess.

Then again Schoendienst got in too, his JAWS puts him at 36th at second base, behind such luminaries as Tony Phillips and Chuck Knoblauch.

see Steve Carlton?

Schendienst being in is as much about his post-playing career as it was what he did while he was on the field.

Not at all analogous, a few garbage seasons at an advanced age. Jones fell apart at 30. Plus are you seriously comparing a 329 game winner with 4 CYAs to Andruw Jones in terms of Hall qualifications?

Defensive stats are to me generally nonsense for outfielders. For infielders, they're a bit better because there are fewer missed events because of the nature of the game.

For outfielders, there are a lot more of what I called missed events above. Those are the things that don't happen because a player is better defensively, and that non-happening doesn't generate a stat.
The clearest example is a runner either not running, or not taking an extra base. That's more common in smaller parks, but is especially common with players who throw well. Like Dwight Evans or Ichiro.

I don't think they take the park into account much either. Sure, it's generally not an issue for guys that played in the 70's average sized symmetrical parks, but even good fielders have occasionally looked foolish in Fenway.

Steve B

In a general sense I think that can be true but anyone who watched Andruw Jones play knows he was the best defensive center fielder of his time, and maybe even all time. I don't think generalities apply to a player like him.

[QUOTE=Peter_Spaeth;1683766]Not at all analogous, a few garbage seasons at an advanced age. Jones fell apart at 30. Plus are you seriously comparing a 329 game winner with 4 CYAs to Andruw Jones in terms of Hall qualifications?[/QUOTE]


Not at all. Just tossing out a general comparison about declining years of any career can leave a lasting impression and still wishing that Carlton had heard the voices of reason a little earlier...it was so ugly. My own career ended much the same way, not that anyone noticed...it was a miserable thing to experience and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

He didn't "fall apart" he posted wRC+ of 96, 121,132 and 89 over his last 4 seasons. as 100 is avg, his last 4 seasons he was still 10% above avg hitter.

This is why using the traditional stats can be so misleading as they don't give a very deep portrait of production.

you want to talk garbage, look at Pete Rose's last 7 years, I think his total fWAR for those years is under 1

ETA: it was 1.2 total over last 7 years

If Cobb had had 5000 hits Rose would probably still be playing today trying to catch him. Yeah, he clearly hung on too long but I guess with the special circumstances it's understandable.

I just hope ARod once J Lo dumps him or vice versa doesn't decide he still has it in him to catch Bonds.

Now, I wouldn't mind seeing that happen...

Then bonds could come back and have a heart attack trying to regain what he thought he had...couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

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Understanding it's early, Nolan Arenado may be the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout. Going into this season, he would have appeared to have a 50/50 chance at the hall of fame:

Arenado just completed his age-25 season. The magic number here is 18. That means that 50 percent of the position players who had accumulated at least 18 rWAR through age 25 have made it into the Hall of Fame

He has done nothing at all to hurt that argument this year. Excellent hitter and a defensive 3rd baseman that is reminescent of Brooks Robinson.

At least this year, his home vs away stats are quite skewed. Hitting almost 50 points higher at home. 54 RBI vs. 35. Homers are pretty even.

They put Chuck Klein in the HOF. There's room for guys who play well at home.