Market direction
 

Pre war is tough to track unless you sign up for an online service or are monitoring auctions.

I've been trying to do both . To me it seems things are trending down a tad bit. But overall , things are flat.

I specifically look to HOF major cards in collector grade, not worried about the fringe stuff or ultra high end rarities.

All that being said, what do you guys think? Is the market relatively flat or trending in a direction?


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I would agree that high quality prewar cards overall are probably flat in last 6-9 months. I've been tracking for example nice Ruth and Gehrig Goudeys. No real hard numbers but I'd say they are flat to slightly down in the last 6 months. Seems like the AH's that actually market their higher end cards are holding up better than the ones who just throw cards up on eBay and mutter profundities like "certainly worthy of consideration . . ."

Re: Market direction
 

Bryan,

I am not an economist like my dad, but I don't think there's much to worry about.
One has to remember a couple of variables. First, there's always speculation when
a new President gets elected. (I hope this post doesn't get hijacked and turn into
a political free-for-all.) Next, it's the holiday season. Many folks have other things
to spend their money on this time of the year.

If you've been following the auctions and say there's a downward trend I'm won't
argue with you, but in the casual monitoring I've seen prices relatively healthy.
If this trend continues for a quarter or more then you might be onto something.

Best,

ErikV

Post-war high grade HOFers are still through the roof. A lot of the prewar stuff is leveling off I feel. One specific card that went crazy and has taken a decline is the 55 Topps Clemente Rookie in PSA 8. Last year it made it up to 6 figures and recent sales have been around $40k.

Market direction
 

Pithy points across the board! Holidays are tough to gauge by for sure. Overall healthy yet flat seems to be about right.

My intent is to sell this season. I dumped all my post war Collection in the fall. Including a mantle , Clemente and rose rc. It was tough to part with them, but the time was clearly right. Pre war is tougher for me as there's not an obvious spike to sell into and there's a stronger emotional tie to them for me. That being said, they say anytime you don't sell you're basically buying it for current market value. And I can always buy back if the mood strikes as none of my items are one of a kind. I'm holding onto my cherished goudey near complete sets , but think I've just talked myself into letting the rest go to market as my only concern was a predictable down trend that would hurt my margins ;)

I'm not claiming to know the market well enough to set my own prices. As such,
I use a great AH and let the market tell me the value. Short version is you might see another shoeless Joe 1915 CJ in PSA 3 hit the block this spring


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Let me get out my crystal ball. Oh damn, it's cloudy.

I hope pre-war bottoms out and dumps in value... then I can buy more of it...:p

I'd take a nice looking PSA7 for a fraction of the cost... Even $40K is nuts....

LOL. Whatever happened to the new world order.
Latest Auction Prices for: PSA 8 - Average Price: $49,559.25


12/4/16 Goldin Auction | Image 7 $36,000.00
11/9/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions s***n 66 $38,500.00
10/30/16 Goldin Auction | Image 9 $52,675.00
10/13/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions 1***n 58 $50,401.20
10/7/16 Goodwin Auction | Image 7 $42,519.60
10/2/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions n***n 32 $45,999.00
9/11/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions r***p 30 $56,100.00
8/28/16 Heritage Auction | Image 13 $54,970.00
8/19/16 Mile High Auction | Image 17 $55,309.20
8/14/16 Goldin Auction 12 $62,400.00
8/13/16 Goodwin Auction | Image 9 $62,256.00
8/1/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions m***m 47 $55,700.00
7/17/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions a***g 57 $70,200.00
7/17/16 eBay Listing | Image mnmiracle2004 s***n Best Offer $107,500.00
7/7/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions i***s 88 $80,000.00
6/30/16 Goodwin Auction | Image 17 $150,391.00
6/26/16 eBay Auction | Image jstevec19 p***- 86 $94,600.00
6/10/16 Goodwin Image 14 $146,803.00
6/7/16 eBay Image manontherock n***m 53 $90,300.00
5/14/16 Heritage Image 6 $131,450.00
5/8/16 Memory Lane Image 34 $61,200.00
5/6/16 Mile High Image 23 $68,018.10
5/6/16 Mile High Image 19 $68,018.10

Interesting that both top values were with Goodwin. Wonder if those sales were consummated?

Unlikely the +$100K auctions were consummated. Maybe someone who knows can ask the AH's. (please queue the crickets)

From what I have been told from numerous sources, many of those Clemente sales from the summer did not get paid for. What a shock:eek:...not.

Couple other examples are Koufax and rose rookie PSA 8's.
Koufax rookie PSA 8's were selling for around $25k in the summer now are selling for around $10k
Rose rookie PSA 8's were selling for $15k in the summer now selling for around $5k.

So the answer appears to be that things are trending down more than a bit. Relative to T206's my observations are that hof's are down a bit if they are selling at all, I've noticed on ebay that sellers have not reduced prices but that cards are not selling. Prices on more common T206's are down 25% I'd say.

if the up prices were not real
 

then have they really come down? Honestly the Rose Clemente etc boom was manufactured and not real. It did in the end seem to push the market slightly higher then before the shenanigans but nowhere near the highest numbers they tried to establish as the new norm. Overall the market seems stagnant which is common this time of year. Prices and activity seem on par with last christmas season which is what i would judge it against as opposed to judging it against the spring/summer when cards are always hotter.