SMR's non-linear relationship to reality
 

There's often talk around here about how SMR prices are absurdly low, usually in connection with high-end cards. Now, I'm not into high-end cards (because I would like to stay married), so I'm curious about how it does with lower-tier cards. For instance, I recently bought a lot of three low-grade 1933 Goudeys: Lazzeri, Frisch, and Combs. The Combs is definitely poor, which SMR values at $28. Frisch has one big crease, but otherwise only ordinary wear. Let's call it poor as well. $45, per SMR. Lazzeri looks nice but has a big mark. To be as generous to SMR as possible, let's call it poor. Also $45. All raw.

Now it's true that not all poor condition cards are the same, but none of these cards are missing chunks, they don't have any paper loss. Frisch and Combs have been banged about, Lazzeri just has a mark (albeit a large and conspicuous one) and would be VG-ish otherwise. The point: although damaged these cards are not destroyed.

So by SMR this lot should be valued at $118. I won it for $36. And I don't think that I got a deal on it. There were ten others who put in bids. It's just that low-grade cards aren't worth very much. Now I know that SMR is only supposed to be used for PSA graded cards, but it's not like these cards need PSA's blessing to verify their condition: I'm assuming that they're all in as low of a grade as possible. There's also value added by authenticating cards, but the risk here is tiny. Having these cards graded wouldn't do anything for their value.

So here's the non-linear bit. Does SMR over-value low-end cards, and under-value high end cards? And, if so, why the difference?

It's just "supposed" to be a guide. NOT gospel! A more accurate guide is VCP, but then again, with all the craze surrounding centered rookie cards, even that is not a good guide (but it is better than SMR).

+1

For frequently traded cards, recent eBay sales history is the best guide of all. For thinly traded cards, you've just gotta bid 'til it hurts!

In all seriousness, the Beckett people do the best job by far in tracking the graded card market. Without discussing some of the issues we have discussed forever on this board, they work very hard on their graded pricing.

I know, because I email the head of pricing about 3-4 x a week and he emailed me back to say they were processing a several thousand page graded card market report for their next graded card pricing book

That is in addition to whatever they do to keep pricing accurate on the hotter cards the rest of the year

Rich

Agreed. SMR, as well as other in print guides, are done on a monthly basis and do not give the immediate true market value for an item in high or low grade. VCP is really the way to go to gauge values.

+1

+1

A couple years ago I looked at the Beckett printed guide to try to find mistakes. It was spot on with accurate, reliable and provable recent sales data. I was surprised and happy. Otherwise, I agree print guides are outdated almost when they are printed, so it seems nowadays.

I agree with Daryl, eBay is the current viable price guide. Beckett is pie-in-the-sky pricing.

Hey Mike
LMAO, almost all of the Beckett sales I tracked, in their print guide, where actual historical sales with data to back them up..... You weren't reading the same guide I was, that is for sure. Unless you think they are in cahoots with ebay and all of the auction houses to distort and distribute historical data.

Mike:

You are a truly good person, but in this case I will disagree with a caveat.

There are many modern cards for which there is no real way to keep up with their values which when you see them at a show are 10 percent of less of the Beckett BV. When you finally drive down to my show with Mike and Kyle, you will see we all agree on that. I (we) still owe you a meal from like 2004.

However, in the field of graded card pricing, Beckett really does a very thorough job on pricing. Their market report for the upcoming graded card book is several thousand pages. I have no reason to doubt the pricing manager who I send several emails a week to when he apologizes for not responding because of having to work through that pricing tome.

And while I have not seen, nor do I want to go through any of that data, they do have access to ALL Ebay Data, the Beckett marketplace, all the auction houses big and small and other ways as well.

Regards
Rich

Leon- I have the utmost respect for the folks at Beckett and the sales I track are not the high end stuff anyway. But for the average collector that is not buying graded material eBay is the best reflection of what pricing is today.

I will also add that while I have not purchased a monthly guide in years I eagerly look forward to their new vintage magazine, the articles have been great fun.

Rich I am looking forward to a visit and hope to do so in the near future, by the way Mike and Kyle have given your shows very high marks!

We miss them, they need to do my show more often. They did great in a 3 hour cameo last month!

At $36 be glad I didn't see it. It would've cost you more. I think it's a great deal.

We appreciate all of the positive things said about VCP. The one thing that separates us from the other price guides is ours is the only one that updates on the fly. When a eBay auction ends it posts to our site within 15 minutes. We are currently tracking over 125,000 auctions waiting for them to end and finalize to our site. We do not update once a month but 1000's of times everyday.