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-   -   Baseball trick for math nerds only (http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=215641)

jason.1969 12-24-2015 05:59 PM

Baseball trick for math nerds only
 
It is common nowadays to see a hitter's performance represented as BA/OBP/SLG. Ignoring HBP, SAC, and various oddball ways of reaching base, it is then a simple matter to deduce each of the following, per 100 plate appearances.
  • AB
  • H
  • BB
  • TB

However, it is not possible to recover similar values for 1B, 2B, 3B, and HR other than in rather extreme cases such as when SLG = BA or SLG = 4.000.

That said, I have developed a rather crude algorithm for guessing these values. To put it to the test, I am requesting that you choose any season for any active hitter, don't tell me who it is, but tell me the slash line.

I'll respond with the results of my algorithm. Then you can either tell me if I'm close or tell me the hitter and year, at which point I can check for myself.

WillBBC 12-29-2015 09:48 AM

2006 slash line...

.282/.371/.514

I love this idea, can't wait to see where this is heading!

1952boyntoncollector 12-29-2015 10:29 AM

I would guess with that line someone would have like 40 or so doubles and 25-35 homers and people with that much power usually don't have much speed so maybe 1-3 triples...who knows......what does the math say?

WillBBC 12-29-2015 11:15 AM

You're spot on with your estimates, very very close on all of them. Looking forward to seeing the result.

rsdill2 12-29-2015 01:20 PM

2005: .303/.350/.436

jason.1969 01-04-2016 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WillBBC (Post 1485636)
2006 slash line...

.282/.371/.514

I love this idea, can't wait to see where this is heading!

Sorry for the delay. Went offline for the holidays.

Okay, per 100 plate appearances, I am arriving at 14 singles, 6 doubles, 1 triple, and 4 home runs.

Let me know how close I came. Thanks!

jason.1969 01-04-2016 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsdill2 (Post 1485723)
2005: .303/.350/.436

Am getting 19 singles, 6 doubles, 2 triples, and 1 homer per 100 plate apps.

rsdill2 01-05-2016 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jason.1969 (Post 1487755)
Am getting 19 singles, 6 doubles, 2 triples, and 1 homer per 100 plate apps.

It was Ichiro in 05

Actual numbers per 100 PA: 21.38 1B, 2.84 2B, 1.62 3B, 2.03 HR

jason.1969 01-05-2016 08:31 PM

Back to the drawing board!

wilkiebaby11 01-06-2016 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jason.1969 (Post 1488518)
Back to the drawing board!

Ichiro was a rare talent so it's no surprise that your algorithm didnt hit him spot on. I bet that for an average day player, your algorithm would be pretty good, with 95% confidence.


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