T206 Dahlen HOF Price Impact - Seeking Opinions.
 

I asked this question in the T206 future HOFer thread, but it was quickly buried by all of the other discussion going on there. I'm looking for some opinions on what a HOF induction does to the market price of Dahlen T206 cards.

It looks very likely that Dahlen will get in, probably more a question of "when", not "if".

Being as his cards are already priced a a premium vs. your standard common, I'm wondering what members think.

Already Priced in. "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Everyone has been buying/hoarding thinking he will get in. The day he gets in, everyone will be selling which will be a good time to buy IMO.

I thought no more pre 1940 era players were going to be allowed into the hall of fame by the veterans comittee

^^^ Wrong. Three different Veteran's committees, covering three different time frames: 1) Pre-integration era, 2) Golden era, 3) Expansion era. They each vote every three years, on a rotating basis.

http://baseballhall.org/hall-famers/...re-integration

As I mentioned in the other thread, Dahlen will likely go in next December(2015).

He got 10 votes last time and three guys were elected in, while no one else on the ballot got more than three votes. He needed 12 votes(out of 16) to get in. The voters had a maximum of four votes, so while Ruppert, Deacon White and Hank O'Day got a total of 44 votes, that left a maximum of 20 votes for everyone else.

Ten of those 16 voters thought he was worthy, while there is a chance those other six were deciding between Dahlen and six other players for just one vote.

Another interesting player on the ballot was Tony Mullane. I think a few people are already holding on to his cards just in case he gets elected because the OJ prices take off. I have three of them and I can guarantee one will be on the market right away if he goes in.

Basically, if you have an extra Dahlen, it's worth holding on to just in case he makes it, but you'll want to move the card quickly because prices will jump up immediately, then settle down over time. There will be HOF collectors who want one right away

Mullane was a fine pitcher, but I think the voters, if they think of him at all, think of him primarily as a terrible racist and secondly as a very good pitcher, so unless the character clause is thrown out I don't see him getting elected.

And yes I have heard of Ty Cobb.

I don't think he would have been on that final ballot if there were serious questions about him. They left off players from his era like George Van Haltren, Bobby Mathews, Jimmy Ryan, Dummy Hoy, Lave Cross, Bob Caruthers, Pete Browning, Dave Orr, etc. You could make some kind of case for all of them, but Mullane was the one on the ballot.

They may think of him as a bigot, but while Cap Anson, the person that is considered the primary reason for the color barrier in baseball that Jackson broke through, is in, I really don't think it can be a primary reason to keep anyone else out.

I am kind of surprised by the whole Dahlen argument. He is marginal at best IMO, though the HOF has honored a few marginal players from that era. I think Larry Doyle is much more deserving and he never gets a mention.

I am kind of surprised by the whole Dahlen argument. He is marginal at best IMO, though the HOF has honored a few marginal players from that era. I think Larry Doyle is much more deserving and he never gets a mention.

Dahlen is helped by the SABR stats. Going by WAR, he is the seventh best position player in the first 40 years of baseball. All-time for shortstops, he is 5th highest ever. Defensively, he is the tenth best player ever. Going by those stats, he is far from a marginal player, he's a legit mid-tier HOF

Then you are making the mistake of only looking at the offensive numbers and not the whole picture

Larry Doyle 2B WAR= 45.3 (Position Rank 28th) / WAR7= 30.3 (Position Rank 41st) / JAWS = 37.8 (Position Rank 31st)

Bill Dahlen WAR= 75.3 (Position Rank 7th) / WAR7= 40.2 (Position Rank 21st) / JAWS = 57.7 (Position Rank 10th)

The only other person with comparable numbers to Dahlen not in (and eligible) is Alan Trammell. Even Bobby Wallace another comparable player from the era (and t206 member) has worse WAR (13th) and JAWS (14th) is in.

The people who saw him play, the 1936 and 1938 HOF voters, gave him 1.3% and 0.4% of the vote, respectively. He does not deserve to be in the Hall.

They didn't have access to the microprocessors and mutivariate statistical analyses that we have. They weren't stupid. We just have tools now that do a considerably better job of assessing a player's impact on his team's ability to win games than eyewitness memories do. Shame on us if we don't use them.

I disagree with this assessment. I doubt many voters in 1936 saw him play in his heyday during the turn of the century. It wasn't like he was on TV or his exploits be heard on the radio.

Those same voters gave Jesse Burkett 2 votes one year and one the other. Tim Keefe got one vote total. Kid Nichols got 3 votes each year.

Dahlen .272 lifetime, that speaks for itself. He should not even be in hall of fame discussion. It's like putting closing pitchers in the hall it absolutely absurd. If you can't pitch more than one inning, you shouldn't be considered a pitcher.

So only one stat matters? If he would have got 28 more hits for every 1000 at bats then it would be a different discussion? And the rest is discarded? :confused:

+1...

A small sampling Hall of Fame position players with less than .272 lifetime batting averages. Want to kick them out?

Johnny Bench, Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew, Eddie Mathews, Willie McCovey, Joe Morgan, Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Ozzie Smith

The game evolves and as it does the people who dominate in the roles that emerge deserve the same consideration as everyone else. Relief pitching has become a critical element of the modern sport and its practitioners are every bit as valuable to their teams as starting pitchers, perhaps even more over a short series. It is not that they "can't" pitch more, it is that they are most valuable to the teams in their role. Mariano Rivera was a huge component of the Yankees' success over the last two decades and deserves HOF consideration--personally I consider him a 1st ballot shoo-in.

The Hof should be the very elite players. Not medicore players. Shouldn't be more than 100 players in. And it's insane how many people they put in that don't belong

But what happened to pitchers actually completing games? It's long gone, and saves are a joke. A great starting pitcher it 10 times more valuable than a "closer".

This is simply not true. There have been 18,174 total players in major league history and 211 have been inducted as players into the Hall of Fame. Meaning 99.9% have not been called by Cooperstown. The idea that the Hall of Fame is letting everyone in is simply hogwash. Not to mention of the several thousand negro league players who toiled in obscurity due to institutionalized racism only 35 have been inducted (that number should probably be doubled). There is room for PLENTY of more.

Well this is just my opinion, over half of those do not belong. And it will only get worse. It didn't just start though, there are plenty of T206 guys that have no business being in.

I agree with this in its entirety. Also, I think the NFL is much more forgiving and more easily attainable than the MLB, not even close...Just my 2 cents...

You can use stats to prove anything...Dahlen was never close to being the dominant player in the league, Doyle won an MVP, Doyle was the team captain of a team that was consistently in the hunt for a championship often acting as manager after Mugsy had been chased. He batted about 20 points higher on his career. I'd take him in a heartbeat over Dahlen, but both were merely very good players and whether you think they should be in or not depends on what you think the hall of fame should be. Both are also better than some players who are already in there.

Someone like Rivera, a failed starting pitcher, will get in on the first ballot and fairly easy I'm sure, but Bill Dahlen, one of the best defensive players of his era(when everyone played small ball) and an above average hitter, people doubt.

Dahlen batted 10,405 times, Rivera faced 5103 batters. So Dahlen spent double the time in the batter's box than Rivera did on the mound, plus played somewhere around 18,000 innings on defense,where remember, he was one of the best back then.

I don't know how anyone can think the relief pitcher that throws one inning is better than one of the best shortstops ever to the point one is iffy and the other is a sure thing. Shouldn't it be totally reversed when talking about these two?

They should have never let Hoyt Wilhelm in the Hall, because that led to Rollie Fingers, down to Goose Gossage, to Bruce Sutter and now we are putting in a one inning pitcher on the first ballot! How ridiculous is that, his position is pitcher, not relief pitcher. If a ball is hit to him and he throws the ball to first base for the out, it goes down as a 1-3 in the scorebook, not RP-3. Their position is pitcher and it's pathetic that someone like Jack Morris gets questioned with all his time on the mound and people throw in failed starters like they accomplished something special.

Dahlen and Mariano Rivera are not comparable. I get that you like the guy but come on.

That's right, Rivera is an complete joke! As are all closers, but especially him because the media worships him.

I wouldn't call Rivera a failed starting pitcher. He was an outstanding starter in the minors but only had a chance to start ten games in the majors which is not enough to establish whether or not he would have failed. If it was then Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine would not be getting inducted into the hall of fame this year. The fact of the matter is that Rivera never got another chance to start because he was so good when he came out of the pen not because he "failed" as a starter.

You are however right about Jack Morris.

Who decides who is "good enough" to get in? You? Me? Of course we have differing opinions on what players are hall of fame worthy but to say that half of the current hall of famers are not worthy is a pipe dream. You can't get a bunch of t206 experts to agree on whether Bill Dahlen should be a hall of famer let alone the rest of the hall.

That is how I feel, I just think it is crazy that DECENT players get in.

I don't think you understand the modern game.

This is such a typical comment when looking only at statistics like IP, CG, etc.

The game has evolved. Guys like Matty and Johnson could pitch WAY MORE INNINGS because the fact is, during the deadball era, pitchers didn't pitch hard until someone got to second base. They were almost lobbing the ball up there until someone was in scoring position. Maybe they would bear down when they had 2 strikes on the hitter, but they mostly conserved there arm until they needed it. Small ball.

This made a defensive SS like Dahlen mega valuable to his team.

I understand it quite well. But I do not agree with it. It is a bunch of over managing, over paid players.

Johnson was lobbing the ball??? It was dead ball, those guys were just trying to make contact. Johnson and Matty were by far the best two pitchers there ever will be.

Dahlen should be in, as well as Ed Reulbach.....Just my thoughts.

Reulbach's ERA was very very good.

+1...I dont know how he can be out... In addition to his amazing stats, he actually pitched consecutive 1-hitters in a double header game....Can you say amazing???

Jay,

I don't imagine most of the voters in 1936 or 1938 ever saw him play. By then he had been out of MLB for 24 years or so. And I feel pretty confident that the very few of those who actually saw him play saw him at the end of his career. That's sort of a different thing than seeing him in his heyday and voting on him based on that.

Yes. They didn't bear down until they had 2 strikes or a runner in scoring position. Do you really think Wajo threw 500+ complete games at 100mph?

Orioles1954--you may want to recheck your math, as should Kevin who agreed with it.

What exactly is the math?

Yes I do, he didn't get over 3500 strikeouts by lobbing the ball to the plate. He didn't need any "relief" he started his game and he finished his game.

Wow. The reason he isn't qualified is that his batting average was too low? I hesitate to call anyone a dumbass, but that statement surely qualifies. Joe Morgan's BA was lower then Dahlen's. Is he qualified?

Its become the Hall of Very good...

Nope shouldn't be in.

You got it Steven!!!!!!!!