Crypto Influence on Current Prices
 

This is just a food for thought �� question?
Over this current year Jan 21 to Now I often wonder on big high end Purchases Specifically in the big major auctions was Crypto used to fund these purchases ? If so what percentage of high end items were purchased with crypto?

How would a major correction in the crypto market affect the current state of this inflated card market ?

Yes, it definitely has a measurable influence. As for myself, my two biggest cards were both purchased with bitcoin.

Both cards and crypto fell in February/March, and only crypto has rallied back to new highs (I am solely basing it on the cardladder50 index, which skews modern).

I don't think the two markets are as related as people think.

They are only related in the sense that the markets are all flooded with liquidity and the same phenomenon running up the prices of crypto, cards and many assets are all interrelated. Crypto speculation is probably more related to modern card speculation than Vintage but hard to completely separate the two.

I think it has less to do with crypto in particular than asset inflation in general so people have a lot of cash (or equivalent value in liquid assets) to throw around. Assets that either amplify/leverage the inflation or are further out the risk/reward curve (and in many cases those may be the same) just make it that much more obvious. But maybe crypto is a the most visible example.

Thinking about it, what is the difference between someone's bitcoin going up 5x and their SPAC stock going up 5x (or the warrants even more)? Or their house doubling in value (and if they put only 20% down, that's roughly a 6x return on their leveraged investment). In any case, if they decide to convert to other assets or cash in and have some play money, it could buy some very nice cards.

So people may use crypto to buy cards or just feel richer because of their crypto holdings and buy cards with cash or other assets, but I think that's symptomatic of something larger.

I think you are correct. Personally, I think crypto has value beyond a marker/play on asset inflation and own some bitcoin and ethereum. If that's correct, then we'd definitely expect more long-term divergence (or at least less correlation) of crypto and card prices.

It will be interesting to see where card values go if the Fed ever really removes its extraordinary asset support.

PS: Darn, Paul beat me to it and more succinctly.

To me the recent run of card prices is directly related to Cyto and or stock market highs. That’s just me.

100+ agree

Depends on what your definition of "is" is. Anyone who can afford to drop six or seven figures on cards isn't worrying about short term gyrations in other investments. Those of us whose spending is capped at a much more modest level very likely do not own a meaningful amount of crypto as compared to home equity, securities, retirement accounts and (if you've collected for a long time) cards.

Personally, I'd like to see crypto crash or be regulated out of existence just so all of these smug millennials will STFU. They remind me of those first-wave Internet a-holes ca. 1999 or the real estate jagoffs of 2007.

And stay off my lawn!

I don't think you can avoid the psychological effect of Covid on the mad buying of assets these days. Here today, gone tomorrow sort of thing. And so if you wish to use some of that fat bank account, please buy old baseball cards.

The uptick is definitely tied to crypto and speculative investing. Just look at how the Wagner was paid for in the recent REA auction. Paid with crypto.

I tend to agree with this.

In addition crypto "money" adds money to the Card Collection Realm that may not have been there otherwise and results in more and higher prices on cards with more and new bidders.

The record-setting Wagner was not paid for with cryptocurrency. REA offered to accept crypto for the purchase, but that option was not chosen by the buyer.

Brian

Not sure where I saw it but I did see a chart showing a direct correlation of Crypto price increases to the top 50 card prices.

The bottom line in our economy, as any person even half educated knows, is there is too much money chasing too few goods. Inflation. And whomever says it's transitory is an effing idiot. When wages go down, and the govt quits giving free money to half of America, the prices will go down. And that time is never.

As for crypto, it's just more money in the mix, imo.

Every thread needs a card...
.

I'm not sure how much Crypto has had an effect, but there is a ton of New Blood and returning collectors in the hobby. The government has also been furiously printing money. 40% of the current cash in circulation was printed in the last 12 months, inflation is through the roof, wages are stagnant, I'm not gonna claim the skies are falling but something's going to give, eventually. When that "eventually" is, who knows?

The CPI has increased by close to 7% in a 12 month period, it's the larges increase in 31 years. We're going to hit a wall.

Investing
 

In times of inflation, holding cash is a losing proposition. Other losing strategies are money markets, many bonds, CDs, many annuities, etc. with low interest rates. IMO

So therefore, many investors will put money into a scarce asset, such as collectibles or real estate. These are more likely to increase in value with inflation, IMO. For example, the last big era of inflation (late 70's to early 80's) was a huge time for baseball cards.

Now this is what cracks me up about the so-called free market capitalists. We get an earful of the free market protestations when there is a discussion of taxation, regulation, public benefits, unions, etc., but when labor refuses work at the wage offered, they act like the sky is falling if the market is allowed to function. Any non-hypocritical free market capitalist understands that if the workers won't work for the wage offered, you gotta pay more and either absorb that cost or pass it on to the customers.

There's no simplistic answer to these macro-questions; we are in an unprecedented time after a massive sharp drop in output and demand due to COVID so there is going to be pent-up demand unleashed. Not to mention that we have a supply chain mess rippling across the world. A 6%-7% inflation rate pales in comparison to the 20% increases we are seeing on real estate in the larger population centers, the stock market run, the increases in hard asset value, etc. Did anyone really expect that people who've been stuck in a house for over a year and who feel prosperous are not going to go out and spend?

It will pass.

As for cards, might as well just enjoy the ride, use it to reallocate some of your collection away from things maybe you don't like all that much. Or just hold cash for the inevitable correction and then buy when prices drop. Because they will.

Both have become vehicles for those subscribing to the greater fool theory.

James, wages have absolutely NOT been stagnant. Here's the link to one of many such reports: https://apnews.com/article/business-...eb5a1111e1df49
This said, I realize that wages have not risen as much as the very recent huge increase in the CPI.

It's not a free market when you have extended unemployment benefits (free money being handed out) for people who aren't working, on one side, and government mandates (forced vaccinations as a requirement to be allowed to get or keep ones' job) on the other.

A free market capitalist would have zero, or very limited unemployment benefits that encourage people to remain out of the work force, and zero forced vaccination, which discourage some people to enter, or remain in, the work force.

The current situation is the result of manipulation, not a free market.

Agree +1

I admit when I'm wrong, I'm glad in this case that I am, a small uptick is better than no movement. Seems like everything is increasing in price though, that could be a dash of reality mixed with a dash of me imagining things.

Brian,

Thanks for the ground truth.

No, it is not. It is the product of workers finally learning that slave wages and crap benefits are not worth it. Government money ended and we have not seen a downward drift of wages or increased competition. The opposite; the Great Resignation has intensified. Vaccine mandates help attract employees in many areas of the country where people do not want to be around unvaccinated people, who they perceive to be selfish asshats who put others at risk needlessly. Me included: you want into my office, wear a mask and show me your vaccine card. No? Find another employer, because I am not interested. I'm a fat, middle-aged white man with asthma and high blood pressure. COVID would make me its bitch if I get it, so not interested in the excuses.

never mind..no need to rant.. :)
.

If people have decided it isn't worth working, and if government money has ended, then how are people surviving? Is everyone turning into a thief, or are they crawling into cardboard boxes and starving?

End the free money and end forced vaccinations (I thought women, and men too, owned their own bodies) and you'll have levels of employment like we had 2 years ago, when workplace participation was at an all time high.

By the way, I got vaccinated as soon as I was eligible. But I would never presume to force my neighbors, or their children, to do so. I get to live my life and they get to live theirs.

NOW, all of a sudden you are scared to die?

Sheesh. Diet and exercise probably too tough or a regimen.

It's easier to demand everyone else accommodate by getting themselves vaxxed, rather than assume personal responsibility.

This really does illustrate the different ways people look at life. Some want to control others for their own convenience, while others want to control their own lives and are happy to extend that courtesy to others.

Hey Adam, can it be assumed that you are not a registered democrat? :p

Leon, I hope this doesn't cross the line about "politics" in a thread, if so, my apologies. :)

Mark, I consider keeping my family safe as more than a convenience. If you choose to be unvaxxed your personal responsibility is to stay away from everyone. I don't know why people feel they have a right to spread disease.

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If you and your family are vaxxed, and you have confidence in it, then why worry about what others do?

The truth is, some vaxxed people are getting the virus too. So maybe you and your family should likewise isolate from the rest of us, since you are not immune either.

A big +1...... and by the way, it's NOT a disease as many like to say. It's a VIRUS with a 99.9+% survival rate for most IF you even get infected.

Another county heard from.

I will bet all you a Bitcoin that Nothing good will come from this thread (as the topic has turned)

I not surprisingly agree with Adam. Could be because he isn’t pretending science is liberal propaganda.and seems to have actually had some classes in economics and the social
Sciences.

I was going to make a smart remark about the volatility of bitcoin impacting the value of that bet, but I'm not clever enough to make it work.

So there :p.

You answered your own question. There is still a risk and the unvaxxed are perpetuating it. And you are right, we all have to deal with that.

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So glad I caught up on this thread. Thanks for the science lesson guys!

[QUOTE=Leon;2163983]The bottom line in our economy, as any person even half educated knows, is there is too much money chasing too few goods. Inflation. And whomever says it's transitory is an effing idiot. When wages go down, and the govt quits giving free money to half of America, the prices will go down. And that time is never.


Absolutely Agree -

You are so right! That is why I never look both ways when crossing the street. 99.9% of the time you do not get hit by a car and when you do, you are unlikely to die.

COVID is an abbreviation for "Coronavirus Disease." Coronavirus Disease. So COVID-19 is the Coronavirus Disease of 2019.

How is it "NOT a disease"? The term is exactly that, the name of a disease (the disease cause by the SARS-CoV-2 virus). I'm not sure what the poster thinks disease means, but there is a whole category of diseases ("infectious disease") caused by viruses, bacteria, parasites, and even fungi.

Regardless of one's political bent, this has to be one of the dumbest statements on the internet, and that says something.

Unless of course you meant inflation. As far as I know, inflation isn't a virus, but it might as well be.... In that case, I apologize in advance.

You mean we shouldn't be taking advice about science, medicine and economics from random online sports card collectors? :-)

One of my friends got COVID a month ago, fully vaccinated. He was ill for a while but not hospitalized, BUT he now has long COVID symptoms. He is a stand-up comic and the difference in his sets from pre-illness to post-illness is clear. He just is not thinking on his feet as quickly as he was and he is struggling to find a coherent structure to his jokes on stage. it is almost like he had a stroke.

The vaccinations are great at reducing hospitalizations and deaths for all but the sickest patients, but even so, long COVID is no joke and not worth the risk if you depend on your brain to make a living since no one knows who will get it. If you have a specific medical reason not to take a vaccine, that's something else entirely, but if the objections are not based in science, then you are just politicizing a deadly and debilitating disease. Do the vaccine, if not for you then for someone else's nana or pop-pop who may die or may be disabled as a result of your spreading the bug.