The Willie Mays price boom
 

As I noted here last week, I have returned to collecting after a four-year break (and an unfortunate sell off of most cards BEFORE the recent value surge) to finish another book and two films. So I am looking around with fresh eyes and noticing some amazing things. I'll do a separate thread on the astonishing t206 surge but for now, what about the steady climb (and still going) for all decent Willie Mays cards? Why now and why him? Of course, he was my favorite growing up, and now "greatest living player," but that's been true for quite awhile....

So why now--and will it continue?

And are all '50s-60s greats now about to follow in his wake? Someone mentioned last week that several giants have not surged, such as Frank Robinson. Well, last night at PWCC a Frank Robby 1961 PSA 8 more than doubled its previous high. Will Koufax and Aaron follow etc.? Or maybe there will be just a NM and above frenzy....Anyway, it's clear the HOF '50s and '60s are hot. Maybe it's because to older people, that era--after more and more years have passed--now seems like a century ago, and these cards feel more and more like pre-war and not from our childhood. And certainly to younger, news collectors, they certainly seem ANCIENT.

I think there is a lot of room to go with Willie Mays card values.

Many think he is not only the greatest living player, but the greatest player period. For example, the Athletic (Behind a paywall), has Willie Mays #1 and Babe Ruth #2

Buster Olney (ESPN analyst) has said Willie Mays is the greatest player ever as well.

And yet, you can buy Willie's '51 Bowman rookie for just over half of what Mickey Mantle's costs. This is not a knock on Mickey Mantle, but they were both Centerfields, and Willie Mays was better at basically every facet of the sport, with the exception of maybe clutch hitting in the playoffs.

I think as far as investments in post-war go, Willie Mays is up there with the best going forward.

A while ago, inspired by a local young person who proudly showed me a 51B Mays 5MC which he had purchased for a few thousand under "comps", Dr. Beckett and myself did a 15 minute podcast about Mantle V Mays.

I suspect many of the topics to be discussed in this we touched upon

https://beckettinsights.podbean.com/...th-rich-klein/

Rich

It's not just Mays. Aaron, Jackie Robinson, Frank Robinson, Bob Gibson, Minnie Minoso: there were a lot of players that were undervalued that have been taking off compared to the Mick.

Just looking at 63T for example in PSA 8. Mantle is up 100% from May 2018, basically doubled from $2300 to $4600. Mays is +220%, Aaron is +230%, Frank Rob +150%, Gibson +120%. To look at some non HOFers, Rocky Colavito is up 200%, Earl Wilson is up 130%.

Just one year and one grade level, I know, but I think if you expanded your search to other players you would see there is a whole class of players that have been popular over the last few years.



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Maybe Mantle has just always been overpriced?

It's interesting. I've always liked Mays better than Mantle and think he was the better all-around player (although I do find some arguments to the contrary have merit). But it's never been a surprise that Mantle was the more popular player and that his cards ended up being worth more.

1. Yankees
2. All-American Aw-Shucks WHITE player
3. World Series Titles 7 to Mays' 1 (see Yankees) and playoff HRs 18 to Mays' 1
4. The 1961 HR race
5. Yankees

No matter how great an athlete Mays was, how superior a defensive player and base stealer, how close (or some would argue superior) a hitter, he just can't over come the 1 ring, 1 playoff HR, note being a Yankee.

And Ruth was in a league of his own. My personal opinion/analysis is that Athletic and Olney are way off. Yankees mystique aside, you have a guy hitting more HRs one season than any other TEAM in baseball. I'm not a slave to WAR but think it really supports Ruth as the GOAT. But that's for another thread....

I agree Mays is probably a good buy relative to the other top players. It's nice to see his cards and those of some other great players really make a good run up in value, and I expect he has some distance het to go. He certainly deserves more credit, whether or not that is ever perfectly reflected in card prices (at least relative to Mantle RC and Ruth cards).

I don't want to say it, but at 91 years of age, it needs to be said...

422. Mourning Track Power
Buying up cards of a very old former player, for the sole purpose of selling them at exorbitant prices on the gigantic bubble that will surely come after he passes away.

In the last few years, cards of every all-time great who had suddenly passed away skyrocketed in value. Add to that the sheer legendary status of 'The Say Hey Kid' and you better buy now while the (overpriced) getting is good (not as badly overpriced as it could be).

Again, not happy to be a realist here. :(

Substitution Effect. The decrease in sales for a product that can be attributed to consumers switching to cheaper alternatives when its price rises.

As collectors are priced out of prewar superstars they are going to turn to postwar stars instead. Just as collectors priced out of higher grade cards will turn to lower grade cards instead.

Willie is 91 years old, and is more or less considered the greatest position player of all time. Morbid or not, there is speculation on his cards right now in what is assumed to be a run-up to his death. When Hank Aaron passed last year, I know there were at least subtle whispers of Willie being the only player of that caliber left. That's not exactly wrong.

Some cards, like the '52 Topps Mays - were almost criminally undervalued for years in comparison to even garden variety Mantle cards. That at least is no longer the case. It's also nice however to see even midgrade 60's Willie cards getting their due in the value department.

Frank Robinson - eeeh, yeah. But that guy has been undervalued for the entire history of the retail hobby for more than 40 years now. He could eventually get his due much the way Jackie and Satchel cards eventually exploded - but honestly it would be surprising. There are others like that - where besides a rookie card, things are widely affordable. Stan Musial, Willie McCovey, Bob Gibson, Mike Schmidt, Tom Seaver - take your pick. Many other A, A- and B list HOF'ers still have a lot of room for growth in their card prices in my opinion.

The 'problem' with Frank Robinson is that he has to compete with Mays, Aaron and Musial int he same league at the same time. He was really great (#17 WAR) but all three of them were even greater. Being in the top 5 on leader cards isn't really the same as being the big headshot guy. Plop him into the AL for the first several years of his career and he might be regarded more highly.

I could see people recognizing him more eventually though. First black manager, still the only man to win the MVP in both leagues. I would agree he's not better than Mays, Aaron, or Musial - but at the same time he's definitely not given his due.

Frank Robinson is definitely undervalued.

Certainly being 5th fiddle behind Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Musial has something to do with it. And despite being a better right fielder statistically than Clemente (overall, but definitely not fielding), he also doesn't hold a candle to him either, from a popularity/value standpoint.

But for me, the reason I don't collect his cards is because he just doesn't have the nicest looking cards. I had one of his rookies graded, it came back a 6.5, but it did nothing for me and I sold it.

I own his '62 Topps, and there are a couple others I like, but I think his joining the League after what some to believe is the Goldin Age of baseball cards (early to mid-50s) has a little something to do with it.

Its crazy to think that a guy who won the Triple Crown and was the only player to win MVP in both leagues wasn't flashy enough, but that may be the case.

Maybe one day that will change, but I am not holding my breath.

Wasn't always that way. When I was a kid in the late 80's - yeah, Clemente was popular and recognized as a HOF'er, but I don't think anyone thought he was better than say a Musial, and certainly from a popularity standpoint, he was behind Mantle, Mays, and Aaron. Again depending on perspective I could be wrong but I don't recall 80's Clemente having the popularity twist from also being Latino, and a humanitarian - that he seems to have now in the 21st century. I've just always thought he was a badass.

I don't know if people recognize Clemente as better than Musial. And I still think he may be less popular than Mantle, Mays and Aaron. But I think he is right behind them in popularity (maybe tied or ahead of Aaron?).

I believe the humanitarian award named for him was created shortly after his passing. I was born in 1980, and Clemente's always been my favorite player, and a lot of that has to do with his humanitarianism.

But I see your point that he has had a surge in popularity related to the growing Latino population in this country and the continued popularity of baseball in Latin America.

I also think that during Clemente's career, he had limited recognition until he won the MPV in '66 more than a decade into his career, and then it took off with the World Series MPV in 1971, late in his career. He started off pretty quietly statistically, and didn't make an All Star team until his 6th year.
http://www.espn.com/sportscentury/fe.../00014137.html

Yeah, not saying he was better than Musial - just saying that on-field greatness and how that translates to a hobby and popularity can sometimes be odd. True that he wasn't recognized nearly as he should have been during his career. There were also the 4 batting titles which seems to me were treated somewhat quietly. I was born in '77, but it wasn't until the last 15 years that I really began to think of Clemente differently in terms of his humanitarian efforts.

No not even close. Clemente's 63T PSA 8 is at $1000. Mays is $1900, Aaron is $2000.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

How many Frank Robinson fans do you know?

That's why his cards will always be undervalued based on his stats.

Clemente's sacrifice in service of humanity will always ensure he is popular beyond his merit as a player, just like Jackie Robinson. Roberto Clemente and Jackie Robinson are the two baseball players I most admire as people.

Mays RC PSA 8 264k
Clemente RC PSA 8 99k
Aaron RC PSA 8 64k

Mays cards were about the same as Mantle cards until NY dealers bought them up in the mid 80s driving prices of Mantle up. Mantle has been increasing at a higher rate than Mays for ~35 years, but in the last 2 years Mays has separated himself from Clemente and Aaron and is closing the gap on Mantle.

There are far more Aaron rookies than Mays, which accounts for much of the price difference between those cards. There are only 59 52T Mays cards in PSA 8 and 193 54T Aarons. Also, the fact that the 52T set is the gold standard for many collectors probably creates more demand for those cards.

Looking at an early year for both players, the 1957 Topps cards of both players in PSA 8 most recently sold for about $4500. You can check some other years and grades and I think you will find the prices between Mays and Aaron are pretty close.

I would say Mays and Aaron are pretty close to parity in terms of like-for-like pricing. You can't compare the 51/52 Mays to the 54 Hank because of pop counts. To do a fair comparison you really need to get into the late 50s and beyond and it's pretty close.

I don't think vintage is booming anymore. It's probably inevitable with the market tanking and crypto crapping the bed that vintage is going to take a bit of a hit this year. I have seen signs of weakness and have sold quite a bit, although you can't have my Yastrzemskis and I don't want to let go of my Aaron RC either even if it might decline some.

I am probably in the minority but I put Henry above Willie in the Pantheon. Hank had a higher lifetime BA, and is the HR King*, the RBI King, the total base King, and had more hits, greater durability. Willie leads the War battle 156-143 and OPS .940 to .928. It's pretty close and you could make a case for either. I prefer Aaron's place in history and he also had a certain class that is hard for Mays to duplicate, not that Willie lacks class.

Some people think Willie's cards will go even higher when he passes on and I'm not so sure about that.

The '52 Topps Mays is a special card to me and it has really exploded in value in the last two years. I'll take it any day of the week over the Bowman issues. Heck I hope they all keep going up but I'm not so sure. I cringe a bit when I see guys selling vintage with the sales pitch that "it's only gonna keep going up." I am tempted to call them out on this assertion but I like to avoid internet battles whenever possible, despite them being somewhat enjoyable and a way to pass the time.

The thing about the '52 T Mays is that not only was it a total buyers' market for that card before the pandemic (one of my simplest acquisitions early on during my set build at the beginning of 2020), but it also took a long time to participate much in the pandemic boom.

Al or others, is there any truth to that card being triple-printed for a semi-high? I still remember the story of the huge number of them in the mr. mint high number find. Regardless, it seemed to be treated that way.

Then once it eventually went nuts in as 2020 wore on, we were getting close to the Feb '21 peak. Reminded me of how the stock market sometimes acts during a bubble....when the former dogs of the market start getting bought up like the leaders, you know you might be near a top.

Heritage auction closes in couple days. I have a few bids in the serious yet reasonable realm, see how it goes. Am tracking many cards and will be interesting to see the closing prices and the state of the current market.

Same here - good luck!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Heritage will definitely be interesting. A lot of prices for key vintage cards are still well below the prices of the last 18 months. If some of them hold, it could be a bit of an inflection point.

Well I was the winner of the SGC 1.5 1952 Topps Mays in the Heritage auction. Never would have thought in a million years that I would win a Heritage auction. The higher end stuff always was something that was out of my league.

Willie was the last card I needed for my low number run. I have much regret for passing on many better conditioned versions a few years ago. I committed a few months ago to getting the best version of the card I could in the low $4k range - and I succeeded here.

We will see how I feel when I have the card in hand. Whenever I win an auction of this magnitude there is the immediate feeling of I overpaid - if no one else was willing to go this high, then I must've overpaid....

I'm now going to focus on filling out some other sets where every card should be available for much less than this. LOL.

Congrats on the great pick up Dave. You paid what you were willing to pay to finish your run, who cares what other bidders were thinking.

Not that I'm saying the boom is over, because we're clearly a long ways away, but I was looking at the 1951B Mays in PSA 8 today. In part because Heritage had one in their auction that just closed a few weeks ago. In part because the price seemed notably lower to me.

From what is publicly available about sales for this item:

2/27/01 - $276K (Heritage)
3/7/01 - $338K (Goldin)
4/2/01 - $209K (Mile High)
4/20/01 - $204K (Heritage)
5/10/01 - $234K (Heritage)
12/6/01 - $264K (REA)
1/30/22 - $222K (Lelands)
8/28/22 - $162K (Heritage)

I guess my first reaction is that they were sure coming fast and furious between late February and early May 2021...

I guess we can also debate whether everyone being focused on the Rosen Mantle caused this piece to get less attention in the same auction.

And we can give props to Goldin for hitting the highest mark at $338K back in March 2021.

But from the tippy-top peak to the last sale, the price is down over 50%. Especially noteworthy is that it was 7 months since the last one traded, which is a bit of a drought compared to 5 in the course of 2.5 months. So if there was a bunch of pent-up demand, I would have expected the August 2022 auction to be up a bit, not down. I'm sure that someone will observe that the last piece was a bit off on the centering, so perhaps that was a factor.

Admittedly, this may just be a blip. The next one will probably be back at $250K+, and I'll go back to dreaming that people are less willing to trade gigantic mountains of little green rectangles with dead presidents on them in exchange for a single cardboard rectangle.

For anyone musing to themselves at home, in what turned out to be perhaps my single most prescient purchase ever, I picked mine up in May 2020 for $48k, although it won't show up on the publicly-available data because I picked it up from a retailer's website. I guess I'm only up 200% now, instead of being up 500%+. And I'm definitely okay with that.

i have the same thoughts as you on this.

FWIW, my favorite willie card is the 54 bowman. willie may. and it's just a cool looking card. i have a low grade one, fits into my budget nicely.

Nicolo - You did well getting your Mays for such an inexpensive price Attachment 533378

More luck than anything. Plus a whole lot of convincing my wife that spending so much on one piece was a good idea!

Mass susceptibility
 

You may be right, but where is the rationality behind the phenomenon, if any? None of those guys were lowered into the ground with their coffins stuffed with thousands of their cards, so what is driving the "bubble" expectation? There is, of course, the projected scarcity of autographed collectibles, but that aspect of the market is relatively small compared to vintage cards in general. So, is the anticipated skyrocketing in value simply due to Willie's unexpected longevity compared to his contemporaries, with marketers getting anxious that he might even outlive them and cause them to lose out on the bubble expansion?:rolleyes:

I suspect it’s mostly a function of the attention and tributes that come when the end arrives. We humans, and Americans in particular, have a real short attention span coupled with an extreme recency bias. Something that grabs our attention and causes us to focus a bit on a particular person is likely to drive increased interest in that person, at least for a while. While not the end, think about how much Jordan’s pieces spiked in value simply because the attention from the ESPN 30 for 30 special. Similar phenomenon here, with maybe slightly less attention than the special received.

It would be interesting to see how long the phenomenon has lasted in the past, and whether some portion of the price increase sticks long term. Naturally, you would have to filter out the more general market increases (or decreases) to try to isolate just this element.

I think it can explained this way: for a long time his cards were inexplicably cheap. I felt the same way about Mantle. Six or so years ago I bought a 1951 Bowman Mantle SGC 10 for $1,600 all in. I specifically sought that card out because I knew it was an iconic rookie of an iconic player and for some reason I could obtain one in my price range.

I circled back for the Mays for the same reason but sadly missed the boat while I was doing the same thing with other players. I bought Cobb T206s and a T205 for what I considered to be modest prices even 6 years ago.

Time has caught up. A lot of other people noticed the cards were in reach too. Now they aren't.

wow. you got a 10 for $1,600? i only got back into the hobby a few years ago, but that seems insane.

SGC 10 on the old green label system is graded poor, still an incredible buy.

This needs to be further explained or is missing a zero or two.

What explanation could there be? I won the auction. Not everyone waited for the pandemic to get into cards:

https://live.staticflickr.com/4581/3...3eef36a159.jpg

I bought this card in grad school 10 years ago. It cost $515 and I bought it on eBay:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...2e4fc9b01c.jpg

I'm not sure if you're implying that I only got into cards during the pandemic. Tone is lost in message boards! In any case, I didn't wait until the pandemic, I've been into cards a long time.

I misunderstood. I thought you had gotten a 10, like Gem Mint, for $1,600. Haha.

Oh, no, haha an SGC 10. Not PSA 10.

I was trying to back up my point. That for a long time iconic cards were in reach of modest collectors. Now you have to be pretty well stacked to get into these markets. Heritage just sold a PSA 1 51 Mantle with scrap book residue on the back for $9,300 with juice.

Point taken...
 

Your price point on the '51 Mays purchased six years ago reminded me of the card I finally bought to complete my '51 Bowman set in 2007. I had finished the set without the Mantle and Mays cards back in the mid-80's because I considered them both way overpriced at $300 and $200 respectively in EX/MT at that time.:rolleyes: In '07, I broke down and got the Mantle and Mays cards in VG for about $1600 and $700 respectively. Man, I shudder to think what they would have cost me just a few years later.

Signed May's have exploded.

1952 probably the best visually pleasing example

It IS mine for sale in memory lane


https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=71680

Way to out your own auction!

Obviously it’s already doing really well, and I’m guessing will pop significantly higher by the time the auction ends.

I think that Mays underappreciation in contrast to Mantle over the years has finally corrected to an extent over the last few years.

I'm listening to the James S. Hirsch Willie Mays book and it is excellent! It's definitely given me a new respect for the Say Hey Kid.

It definitely pissed me off to no end that Mays was historically always at a serious discount to Mantle. Particularly because (in my view) Mays was superior in every way to Mantle. Not looking to start a raging debate with the Mantle fanboys - just stating my personal (biased) baseball opinion. (!!!!!)

Of course, now that the price gap has shrunk, it pisses me off that I have to pay near-Mantle prices to get my Mays items!

Obviously the issue has always been the fact that Mantle is more popular than Mays, and Mantle collectors have always been willing to spend A LOT MORE than us Mays guys.

In some ways, it has almost taken on a life of its own. If you ask the average person on the street, probably the only two baseball cards that they've ever heard of are the 52T Mantle and the T206 Wagner. Those cards have entered a realm all their own in the popular consciousness.

It also reminds me a bit about how the Mona Lisa became famous - as much as it pains me as an Italian to admit it, in some ways she was the original Kardashian. You can read about it here: https://www.history.com/news/the-hei...na-lisa-famous

So over time, I've come to peace with the idea that Mays has a discount to Mantle. Not because Mantle was a better player. But because Mantle is more popular. And I'm okay with that, particularly if it means that I don't have to spend as much to get really nice Mays pieces. And I would really appreciate it if we could go back to a bigger gap between Mantle and Mays, so please stop bidding up all of his pieces! Thanks...

I hate to be the one to bring up the elephant in the room, but there's one other reason - that isn't mentioned very often why Mays, Aaron, Clemente, F. Robby, and even Jackie don't pull the prices that Mantle does.


Most of us collect those we can identify with- which is an extension of the reason why so many of us are so attached to THE GAME: Generally, you don't have to be exceptionally tall as in basketball or exceptionally big as in football.


In our dreams, we can see ourselves homering in the bottom of the ninth! So much easier if those who are actually doing it look more like us.



I'm a 66-year-old used-to-be-LHP and my three favorites have always been Koufax, Mantle and Ryan...but I do love me some Bad Henry and Roberto.


.

No discount for DiMaggio being my paesano?

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...rouchoMarx.jpg

Happy Friday!