A Hell Of A Year!
 

So given in this past year we've had to deal with the pandemic, historically unprecented price surges, the privatization of PSA, the news of Topps looking to go public, the dreams and fears of AI finally being looked into by the TPG community, the craziness of TPG grading and it's backlogs, submission suspensions, and unprecedented grading fee increases, the emergence of new, major players in the TPG industry, the potential partnering of Goldin and PSA in the card business, the emergence of NFTs, the sudden booting of PWCC from Ebay amidst accusations of shill bidding, and now the news that Topps is losing its license to produce MLB cards, what the hell is next..........ragnarok, the apocalypse, WW III, an alien invasion???

And the year isn't even much more than half over yet!

Has our hobby ever seen this much, happening this soon, in this short of a time period before? This seems almost surreal at this point and who knows where things are headed now.

Anyone care to share any thoughts or feelings on all these overall things that are happening to our hobby all at once, and the future impact(s) they may have on it? No need to get into any of the aforementioned specific issues on this thread as all these occurences and events have already been covered in other threads, multiples in some cases.

Frankly, for myself, I have no clue what it all means and where things may go from here. Thoughts anyone?

If this is posted in the wrong place, feel free to move to the proper forum. Figured since most of the specific threads for all the things happening were already on the main forum, that would be the place for this thread as well.

Sounds like it's not just Topps & MLB, but also Panini with NBA & NFL. All 3 major sports players associations have signed a deal with Fanatics per WSJ reporting. Pretty crazy stuff. The players want in on the cut. They see what's happening with sports cards and they want more of it.

I wouldn't be surprised if this somehow results in an entirely new distribution system too? Who knows.

Don't forget PSA graded Goldin into their 10s family.

All about the money and players want there cut. And Fanatics wants to be the Amazon of the industry and dominate.

Interesting thread
 

I keep an eye on all of these things, but hardly any of them cause problems for me because I rarely use the grading services, I don't collect modern cards, I rarely buy new packs or boxes, except for gifts for my grandchildren, and I have no interest in a T206 Honus Wagner card.

I keep plugging along collecting my low grade tobacco cards and collecting a few vintage non sports sets. My eBay sales, (mostly low grade, low cost items), have hit a new yearly high, and it is only August. The sales in my Flea Market booth have been insanely great, and so far this year, I have had a lot of fun going through the 750,000 cards that I was able to purchase.

It has been a great year in the hobby, as far as my little niche is concerned. And, tomorrow, my wife and I are taking 4 of my grandsons to the card show in Wisconsin Dells.

So, to me, the things that you mentioned in your post are just noise in the background.

Rick

Right now all the Breakers are where the bulk of the initial card distribution/sales are happening with consumers. Before that it was card shops that flourished for a while into the 90s, and prior to that it started out at all the local drug, convenience, and dime stores going back to the 50s.. The Breakers basically do everything online so aside from some minimal consumer sales still going through places like Target, Walmart, and the few card shops still out there, the initial consumer market is mostly over the internet anymore. Now that could start changing as we eventually come out of the pandemic and more shows start occuring again, and maybe even some more card shops open up. But do you think it possible that this new licensing company taking over the production of sports cards from Topps and Panini, Fanatics, may just eventually cut the Breakers out? They are already involved in their own online marketing and sales of licensed sporting apparel, so what would stop them from just expanding that to include sports cards they will also produce? Will be interesting to see if they continue with autos and game used cards and other manufactured rarities that are being produced by Topps and Panini now to mostly fuel the demand from Breakers for product to then sell to their consumers. You know the major sports leagues and the athletes see all these stories about record card prices and everything, and are then wondering why they aren't getting even more money. Now that they also have a stake in this company that will be producing all the sports cards in a few years, can only imagine what they may try to do and come up with so they can possibly make even more off the secondary card market.

Heck, what if they even went so far as to cut out the TPGs and encapsulate some of these manufactured rarities and rookie cards themselves, straight out of the factory? Forget 9s and 10s, how about Uncirculated cards? Think about it, they could sell their cards similarly to how Breakers do in a lottery type format. They don't even necessarily have to have actually produced the cards before they sell them yet. Run random lists of cards to be going into each case or box being sold. And then you announce to someone what they've won and that they are going to be getting some rare rookie or game used/autographed card. And by the way, before we ship it to you we'll encapsulate it right at the factory and send it to you as Uncirculated if you like. For an additional fee of course. That way as long as the card stays in the original factory holder there is no wear and tear, no damage that can be done to it, oh, and maybe the best thing of all, no chance for a card doctor to get their hands on it. Think about how going forward such an Uncirculated factory holdered card would take the place of PSA/SGC/CGS/Beckett graded 10s. And think about all the rookie cards people would likely pay extra for to have factory encapsulated as uncirculated as well. Since no one can usually tell if a rookie will end up making it big, and eventually even make the HOF, till at least a few years into their careers, collectors will go crazy in paying to have any good rookie's cards factory encapsulated, because once you pass on doing it, you've lost that chance forever and then have to pray there's no subsequent damage to the card in its delivery and your receipt, and then keep it that that way till maybe years later when you finally decide it is worth getting graded and holdered after all. But now you have to take your chance some TPG will actually grade it a 10. And also by exclusively offering such a factory holdered Uncirculated service only from sales that go through the Fanatics site, it makes it less likely people will want to buy from other potential outside sources (like Target, Walmart, etc.) and means Fanatics would likely sell even more from on their site for the same retail price, and get to keep the extra profit that otherwise would have gone to Target, Walmart, etc. Oh, and they'd probably be able to tack on a little S&H charge they can additionally profit from as well. And that's just a fews ideas off the top of my head where Fanatics could make more money for themselves up front by selling sports cards directly to consumers.

Will be interesting to see where this could go.

I covered that with the comment about the potential partnering of a grading and selling company in the industry. Just didn' mention them name. Thanks, i may go back and edit that.

BobC, interesting thoughts. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did try something like that. But I would be surprised if it worked. Cards have to have at least a token connection to the traditional way of understanding cards. To completely break from that is going to fracture consumers’ acceptance or what a card is. It is a psychic bridge too far. The idea that these things can be found in the wild at random is part of what makes a card a card.

That is super Rick, glad you're doing so well. This change from Topps and Panini no longer having a license to produce sports cards in a few years really only has a huge direct impact on the modern card market going forward. Not so much vintage, and especially not pre-war. And since you don't really get involved withe TPGs, all that nonsense shouldn't bother you much either. I would guess for you, any possible impact would be much more (years) down the road if these changes start turning younger collectors away from taking over from oldtimers as they eventually leave the hobby. Doubt that would ever completely happen though, and if anything, can see some of these current/future issues actually turning more younger, modern collectors to vintage and pre-war cards more than ever.

Oh I agree, but look at how these younger people, and the influx of flippers and investors with all of their new money, are already making big changes to the hobby. For example, NFT's look likw the new big thing coming along, yet for the life of me I could never see wanting to own one, especially not at what people are already paying for them. Heck, I can't afford any of them. Yet you watch them keep pushing them, especially to the younger generation. And the majority of new cards are already being sold online anyway, yet sales of sports cards seem stronger than ever. At least for the forseeable future we should still have cards shows and card shops to still go find cards in the wild, especially vintage and pre-war, at least on a secondary market basis. So that should be good for some time going forward at least. It is with the new, modern card market where I think the biggest changes to the hobby may come, at least initially.

I'm with you and like to actually be able to hold, touch, see, and even smell the cards, but we're more old school collectors. Now it is all about the internet, social media, and so on. The younger collectors are going to change things whether we like it or not. Only time will tell how much though.

Seems like they may have the money and backing as well to possibly do so.

I must have missed this story. You bought 750,000 cards?! Where, how, and what were they? Were they all vintage or a lot of junk wax? Please start a separate thread or direct me to where this has been discussed on the board. I would like to read about it.

Just remember, markets do not like chaos or uncertainty.

Only Marines run toward chaos.

Enjoyed reading your post, Rick. If we spend to much time worrying about the future we forget how blessed we are today. Hope your have a wonderful time with your grandsons at the Dells.

Best regards,

Joe

I'm 35, all this talk about youngsters controlling the hobby makes me feel really old! :)

Anyway, totally agree that all of these changes have had little impact on my collecting preferences. I am eclectic in my choices and I don't use TPG, I don't collect modern rainbows, the players I collect have mostly retired, I have started buying SGA team sets, and MiLB team sets, and I collect more memorabilia than cards.

It's all water under the bridge for me except for Jonathan India. I like his swagger. Waiting for Topps Update to drop to grab his RC.

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Tough to say. It's certainly plausible though. If you try to imagine them making decisions that put the most money in their pocket, you can often predict what a company might do in advance. In this industry, it seems to me that they probably can't squeeze the collectors for much more as we're already paying ridiculous prices and those prices are dictated by supply and demand. Perhaps they could increase supply and dilute the market, that's certainly what the card manufacturers are already doing now though. But another huge opportunity for them to make large chunks of money is to become a direct-to-consumer distributor (which they already specialize in). It's baffling to me how much money gets scraped out of the market just by the middlemen in this hobby. Products are literally flipped for 5x-10x straight from the manufacturers for offering almost zero additional value to the consumer. What value does a breaker provide by buying a premium Topps hobby box for $400 and then opening it for me on camera for the fee of $3000? It just makes no sense. They're probably licking their chops as they eye that segment of the market. It's where the vast majority of profits come from in this hobby. Will be interesting to see if any changes get made there.



They actually do this already. Fanatics slabs cards right now. Have you seen them? I don't think they put a number grade on their slabs, but they do slab cards as a way to authenticate autographs or memorabilia. Here's a link to one on eBay: https://www.ebay.com/itm/293958780994

Yep, and without the pandemic we would not have seen the insane prices, corporate takeovers, new grading companies, backlogs, etc.

I think we still would have had nearly all of this growth even without the pandemic.

I thought they already did this for autos. I was just too lazy to look it up. Thanks for answering this.



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And lawyers. Show me chaos and I will show you lawyers flying lazy circles overhead. The Lawyer's Prayer: Lord, please bring conflict among the people so that thy servant may eat.

But I digress.

Bob I love the idea of the manufacturers pre-slabbing the chase cards. We already have that to some extent with many of the products offered online in factory-sealed cases. Like Topps Project 2020:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...20%20Efdot.jpg

Or many of the Vault offerings:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...g%20proofs.jpg

That would be so great, to get rid of the TPG lotto nonsense.

I'd hate to see what a Marine JAG does. :D

I was kind of aware that Fanatics was doing some things already, so the idea of factory holdered Uncirculated cards struck me as something I could see them pushing, and if it really took off and got accepted by the hobby, would be a big hit to the TPGs. I can't tell the difference between a 9.0, a 9.5, and a 10.0. So why not just mark it Uncirculated right from the factory and away the nonsense, right. Man, there is so much they could do.

Millions were stuck at home - not allowed to fly, not allowed to do this, not allowed to do that, this is closed, that's closed, etc. These are people who earn good $$$, so what were they supposed to do with their money? They just sat online and bought, bought, bought. And it wasn't just cards that went up - nearly everything did! I couldn't even get a watch that I wanted cause' demand was so insane.

Over the past half-year, society has been opening up and people have more places to spend their money, and prices have been softening at the same time. It's all connected, baby.