Vintage Card Performance During A Recession
 

Did anyone use vintage cards as a safe haven in 2009? I remember gold spiking after the subprime mortgage crisis, and I've seen some encouraging signs from key card dollar numbers during the recovery. I wasn't able to clearly ascertain if there was a spike similar the 2011 gold boom.

I think traditional logic is that people sell trading cards/memorabilia at a loss during recessions to get liquid assets.
PWCC probably has the research done on it; look for some of their studies.

Any cards not high grade (NM or better. i.e. trophy cards), I would expect prices to drop by 50% or more. That's due to less demand and the flood of supply from less affluent sellers trying to raise cash to pay the bills during a bad downturn.

I'd like to think the same thing that happened to stamps won't happen to cards, but that remains to be seen as the baby boomer generation is eventually replaced by millennials who don't seem to care that much for the pre-war stuff. With stamps, the super high end of the market keeps breaking records, but the lower tier stuff is pretty much worthless. There just isn't enough new collectors to pick up the slack.

Here's the silver lining for the lower tier cards: Inflation. The next downturn could bring in a horrific spike in inflation that could raise the price of all commodities by a significant amount.

The US is running $1T+ deficits at the late stages of the economic expansion and it's going to end in an inflationary spiral.

Revisiting
 

With clearer recession signs emerging last week, I am still interested to hear how the vintage card market looked during the last financial crisis. Can anyone confirm demand slowed significantly?

Why would inflation be a silver lining for low tier cards? During inflation the rate of everything rises proportionally.

I was wondering about that comment also, but it appears Manny was banned this year

The best to sell cards is now.....the best time to buy is in a recession.

as long as your job is safe I would not worry

Cards were a mixed bag in the last recession. Even the most popular vintage was soft; take a PSA 4 T206 Cobb red bg as an example (prices from PSA):


7/21/2017
$3,099.99
4
132268288467
eBay
discountcdtoolsdvd
Buy It Now
18295420

7/6/2017
$2,700.00
4
263058172309
eBay
biglin847tl8
Buy It Now
31737907

6/29/2017
$3,120.00
4
80027
Heritage Auctions
2017 June 29 Premium Sportscard Catalog Auction - Dallas Ended Jun 29th
Auction
18295420

11/7/2015
$1,912.00
4
10464
Heritage Auctions
2015 November 5 - 7 Sports Collectibles Catalog ... Nov 7, 2015
Auction
19199199

7/23/2015
$2,220.00
4
6
Greg Bussineau Auctions
Summer 2015 Vintage Trading Cards and Memorabilia Auction
Auction
15658217

6/6/2013
$1,367.31
4
372
Goodwin and Co. Auctions
Masterpieces and Uncommon Commons XLIX
Auction
12498648

1/8/2008
$1,819.00
4
93
SCP Auctions
SCP Auctions January 2008 Internet Auction
Auction
90661364

12/16/2007
$2,031.58
4
133
Memory Lane, Inc.
Serious Rarities - December 8th Auction
Auction
04791456

People lose jobs in a recession. Bonus money for those receiving this type of compensation tends to be less. I see no argument where collectibles would gain in value during a recession. How much value is destroyed is anyone’s guess. It is most probably a function of the length and severity of the recession.

good points
 

Good points, and thanks for some stats, Adam. I knew a guy who thought that sports memorabilia is a good investment during recessions, but I don't think that is the general view. It might be time to sell some cards and raise some cash so that I can buy on the dip when the recession hits in a year or two.

Your last sentence is exactly what is s been doing over the past few years except for only a couple guys.

I imagine most cards will go down in a bad economy, but I would think a down economy presents a good time to buy, and likely is a bad time to sell. I view cards as a longterm investment (yes, I used the “I” word). Like real estate, if you buy the right stuff and are able to hold it for years, you will likely make out pretty well. At least, that’s my plan and I am sticking to it!

Not sure if this is what was meant, but I assume he meant that if the rate of everything rises proportionally, including cards, then they are a safe asset compared to cash, which will lose its value over time.

Of course there are way too many assumptions built into that line of reasoning for it to hold up in actual practice, but I think that must have been what he was getting at.

About the bigger question of what happens to cards in a recession, there is this article here about the art market, which is an obvious parallel:

https://medium.com/@masterworksio/wh...s-2cc9c20451b8

There are absolutely ZERO signs for a recession. That seems to be the new buzz word by the liberal media to make SOMETHING...ANYTHING stick against this president that they loathe. The economy is buzzing along.

Not an economist so can't comment on your ZERO signs of a recession proclamation, but I don't think there is any need for the media (liberal or otherwise) to make things up to disparage the president. He does that quite well for them with his twitter feed :-)

Right now the bond market and stock market are in disagreement over the possibility of a recession with the bond market saying it is likely.

Inflation most greatly impacts the things you need. The assets best suited to fight it are the most desired. In the world of cards that would be your blue chip items.

The previous statements about paring down to your core collection to raise cash for the future is a good strategy right now in my opinion. Having said that I would not sell anything that I would truly miss.

Exactly. But even the Jack ass is looking into more tax cuts because of the signs of a recession. so it looks like one of those typical talk out of both sides of your mouth moves from this POTUS. Take both sides of a position so you always claim to be right.

And the other side can claim he's always wrong. That's the beauty. Works both ways. :)

I'd be willing to bet we WON'T see a recession. However, should a Dem win in 2020, all bets are off.

Not a political forum for your rude reference to the president, no matter what your personal feelings towards him are.

Leon, request at least a warning/reminder please.

AND the only way that is if you work for yourself. There is no such thing as job security, maybe you didn't get the memo.:D:D:D

Not true either. You may be your own boss, but you don't work for yourself. Who pays you?

Your customers (clients)

No politics on Net54 please. There is too much of this garbage lately- keep politics off this board.

Not really sure how anyone can deny the reality of what's coming for the economy. The economy is not a political entity and neither party needs to believe in it for it to be true. Economists are the ones predicting it, not political pundits.

2021 yes possible 2020 No

Nothing will be more political, and important, to both parties during the upcoming election cycle, than the economy.

I will say this. Certain "economist" would love nothing more than the see a recession under the current administrations watch. They are literally salivating at the mouth. Since the Russian narrative fell apart and what not. That is why I take everything the "economist" are saying with a grain of salt. I know MY situation is the best it has been in a long time. All except for my crappy insurance. And that was the previous administrations fault. Not the current one.

The economy exists as it is regardless. Nothing about the likely recession is steeped in politics. Politicians might want to use the economy to support their rhetoric, but a recession happens whether your political party believes in it or not.

Unfortunately, I don't believe what you are saying is true. If politicians say something often enough, true or not, the general public may start to believe it. If the message is there is economic trouble ahead people may alter their consumption patterns which can lead to a slowing economy. Do I expect a recession in 2020-no. Can two successive quarters of negative GDP growth happen (classic definition of a recession), especially with the current trade war, absolutely.

To get this thread back on track a little, I would be interested in opinions on what areas of the hobby might be softest in the next decade or so, recession or not. For instance, do you think that pre-war will take a hit as even boomers age into retirement homes and start to pass away in greater numbers? Do you think that post-war vintage will suffer for the same reason? Do you think unopened is a bubble waiting to burst, but is getting an unreasonable boost right now as the children of the 80's start having more and more discretionary income? Do you think that all of the shiny new stuff will be like 1988 Donruss- way overproduced and ready to plunge? And if a recession hits, are there areas you think are softer than others due to people possibly selling off as much as they can to raise cash?
kevin

I have always thought that sometime in the next 10 to 20 years, when most boomers will be in their 70s and 80s you'll see mass sell offs of lifetime collections, which will mean diluting the market and disrupting supply vs demand pricing. If that does actually happen I don't see any way around a significant price drop on cards that are easily found in many collections: T206 Cobbs, Mattys, Johnsons, Youngs, Goudey Ruths, Gehrigs, etc.

The best case scenario for anyone is to try to time that period and sell high. Then buy back in when it hits and end up with better cards for less.

During a recession, some will have less disposable income to spend on a hobby item. The lower the demand for a product will result in a lower price for that product.

The companies that are affected pay me.... I still get paid, just not as much which is evident from the last recession:) At least, I'm not out of a job. :D

Personal Care Products aren't goin anywhere...ask your wife or your mother:D

Those cards aren't easily found in collections. What is and is going to take a hit are postwar Topps & Bowman. They are far more plentiful than tobacco and early gum cards. Most baby boomers collect what they did as kids. I think people holding prewar cards of the big names are fine.

The least three cards anyone wants sell are Ruth, Mantle, and Jackie.

I would not recommend chasing/buying anything right now..... now is the time to SELL or HOLD......

Remember these points when you have fears. I do not believe we are headed in to a recession.....we have two things against this industry, a looming major scandal, card doctoring/market manipulation along with the constant fear of economic doom and gloom by the media....the media has failed to hit it's target over and over again.... so now they try this.

Never let a crisis go to waste; whether real or fake.

Even though the person you originally commented on said "job", I believe the more appropriate word would have been "income". Doesn't matter who you work for (yourself or someone else) if the income stream isn't there. Are you implying that working for yourself is "safe" in a recession if your income ends up being 1/2 or 1/4 of what it was before?

no politics please. Thank you.

Thanks David.....Infractions and suspensions are going to start being handed out. There is way too much political talk on the board the last few days.

As far as cards in a recession, almost nothing is recession proof.

Economists are notoriously poor at predicting recessions, basically no better than the ordinary man on the street. There will certainly be another recession in the U.S. at some point, but neither you nor I know when it will be, or how bad it will be.

My tinker money is/has been going to stocks last chunk of years. Very few card acquisitions. Stocks have done well past few years. When the economy tide turns, will likely get out of stocks and will buy more nice cards if they decline.

+1 Those who want to believe this kind of shit, please keep it to yourself and your loony friends. This is a collecting board in case you didn't notice. As for a recession, when it comes it will affect everything depending on how severe it gets. And if you think the business cycle has been repealed, see the previous sentence.

The only reason people are discussing a recession is that there are certain signs that have presaged past recessions that are beginning to show up now. This doesn't mean that there will definitely be one, and it doesn't tell us when it will occur. It merely means there are worrying signs out there so it is in everyone's best interest to pay attention.

As far as the future of the hobby, we can only guess. I think there will always be money available for the very rare and the highest graded cards. Where the hobby might have problems is that there will likely be fewer collectors piecing together 1958 Topps sets in VG-EX condition. That area of the hobby is likely to shrink over time.

Things are changing and I think baseball cards will head in the same direction as coins and stamps- collectors are getting older and for every young collector who comes in, two or three older ones will either drop out or die. That could be troublesome for the future of the hobby. But this is only a prediction, not a guarantee of what will happen.

You can buy a T206 Cobb, Matty, Johnson or Young any day you feel like it. Same for the Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs. They're easily found. When the lifetime collections are divvied up and sold these are likely to be the cornerstone cards that go first. But I do agree with you on the postwar drop. Maybe people will still be interested in Topps or Bowman runs but I would think interest will take a serious hit. Who knows, maybe 80s and 90s junk wax becomes huge again.

What Recession? Recessions are caused by people who panic.

I don't think "certain signs" are the *only" reason discussions of a recession are picking up. :)

The inverted yield curve...I get it but compare to Germany which is paying NEGATIVE interest on bonds.

I know there are some cards that I own that I could sell quite easily. Sadly, they are the ones I most want to hang on to.

There are different opinions, of course, but that is my take. Am I right or wrong? I haven't a clue.

Yield curve inversion (2yr/10yr) is the indicator that is driving much of the speculation.