Skyrocketing Card Values Lately - Theories?
 

Hello,

I am noticing some outrageously high card values/sales on eBay lately. This includes auctions as well as Buy It Now's.

It's not only Michael Jordan, but a few other key names in modern basketball as well.

Does anyone have any theories as to what is going on?

All I can come up with is that the government has been giving away lots of money over the last few months, and that people aren't spending money on vacations or at restaurants/malls these days til this all passes. Also, maybe that people are investing in the stock market less since it crashed in March.

The big question though is:

Will buying at these skyhigh prices be a mistake?
Once life returns to normal and people are all back to work, will the values of some Jordan cards and other refractors come back down to Earth?

Any insight or theories is greatly welcomed and appreciated.

Thanks

One Key Question
 

Ask yourself one key question: Why do I buy cards in the first place?
Don't chase prices. It's a sure way to be disappointed. Buy what you love so that IF card prices in ANY sport collapse next month (don't worry, that won't happen!) you can still enjoy the cards and the memories they bring you. Admittedly I'm old school (in my 60s) but that's my two cents. Peace.

My theory:
Alot of guys 40-55 have been staying home the past few months.
Saving money on dining out, gas, and entertainment.
Not as many opportunities to do their typical hobby and no sports on TV, so they are bored.

Extra money and boredom. Hey, let's get back into the sports card hobby.

It is a combination of the NBA not playing and the international appeal of the sport. Money that would be put into new product and current year rookies is being directed toward known players like Jordan and LeBron. Also the 10 part Bulls documentary caused people to seek out players from those teams. Basketball has become the sport to collect because there are collectors all over the world seeking out their cards. Baseball and Football cards are primarily collected by those in the US and Canada.

Yes these are ALL very good points and thanks for the replies.

Do you think once people are less bored and all the sports return, that certain Kobe and Lebron cards will still be so absolutely sky high? Or could we see a decline in these values as we return to normalcy in life globally? Or will they continue to rise until a Kobe rookie refractor is literally more than a t206 honus wagner? Because the Kobe rookie refractors are already doing close to 50k-100k.

Guessing you havent seen prices on new panini boxes and zion, Luca etc. They are also through the roof.

I expect a plummet. There are a lot of sneakerheads (Collectors of basketball shoes) and bitcoin kids and gamblers who are getting in on baseball cards because they're following baseball card savants like Vegas Dave, Gary Vaynerchuck, and other people you've never heard of on Twitter. Most of them are buying up card segments, then telling their followers what is hot, and then seeing their cards skyrocket when those newbies blindly trust what they're being told.

Look at Topps Project 2020 as an example. Cards with print runs of 40K copies started selling for $200 each even though they were printed by Topps days ago. Now they're dropping to $150 > $130 > $100 > $80 > $60 over the course of two weeks. EBay sellers who sold those cards at $140-200 are getting refund requests because these kids didn't think cards could go down!

They're also the reason you can't get any blaster boxes at Wal-Mart and Target; they're buying them up when they hit the shelves (or supposedly extorting the middleman to force them to sell to regional managers instead of ever hitting the store shelves) and then reselling them online for quadruple or more. It's a huge bubble market right now and you can already see the bubble bursting. Now that those kids' PayPal credit cards are due and they're underwater, it's only going to keep sliding.

Swarmee,
Thats an interesting take and thanks for providing a specific example and rationale for an upcoming dip in prices potentially.

Thanks for the reply.

Do you think the Lebron insanity taking place in eBay right now is a bubble also?
No joke, some of these cards have seen their values MULTIPLY BY 4 in only 3 months. And the sports not even on right now! Madness.

Current superstars may take longer to drop back than retired guys. This new blood even made nearly worthless sets (like 2012 Panini Prizm Baseball with no MLB logos) have huge gains just because the basketball Prizm cards are valuable. I think once they have sports they can gamble on and stores they can camp out to buy shoes from, they'll take their money elsewhere. Kobe is sky high since he just died at the beginning of this coronavirus stuff, and once he enters the HOF, I think his stuff will gradually drop. They're basically running out of new buyers, and they have to resell their product to afford to buy more.

It was either you, John, or someone else who wrote a post about that? I haven't been following along much but I am not the least bit surprised to read what you just wrote.
I seen these cards on EBay shortly after the last post about this and seen prices in excess of a thousand dollars asking and it just made me shake my head.
Personal opinion, I thought the majority of the cards sucked, but then again I am not an artist by any stretch nor am I a follower of these supposed new wave artists.

.002 percent with the bank or 15-25 percent selling cards?
 

Banks paying .002 percent interest offering a whopping 1 percent interest for four years and with the stock market volatility, flipping cards and new boxes making 20-50 percent is attractive right now--?

White collar men ages 30-70 make the vintage baseball card market. Most are gainfully employed or comfortably retired and many have more cash than places to put it to work right now. You can’t get much ROI in bonds or real estate. Stocks are trading at historically high valuations. So alternative investments like vintage baseball cards are attractive. That seems unlikely to change for a while.

Sure, the vintage baseball card market could crash for a host of reasons. But I heard many of the same arguments in 2008-2009. What happened then is that the market in “commodity” vintage baseball cards (i.e. low- to mid-grade commons) got soft for a couple of years before roaring back. Hall of Famers never dipped much at all. I will add that I have personally sold quite a few mid- to high-grade T206 cards to young professionals in the last couple of years. There is fresh blood in the hobby—and with this fresh blood comes fresh resources.

No doubt current prices are strong. But I think prices are more likely to plateau than drop precipitously. Heck, prices may even continue their relentless ascent. Aside from David Hall’s rare backs, I have not seen a lot of quality T206 offerings come to market recently. Or offerings in other sets for that matter.

That is good to hear! :)

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...ostcount=25597
This was 11 days ago, and the value just keeps dropping.

I think there are three factors at work all of which have to do with wealthy collectors (who are the only ones who can afford to affect the market for high value stuff).

1) Wealthy collectors aren't getting economically hammered by the lockdowns and resulting layoffs like everyone else is;

2) Wealthy collectors are bored and stuck at home. They aren't able to spend money on their other hobbies right now, so they are spending more on cards.

3) Stocks are pretty risky right now so they may also see plowing money into cards as a safe investment.

If any of these three things change, you might see a price correction.

cards going up?
 

Let me ask you this..... do you really think the cards themselves are going up or is it just the holders they are in? A truly rare card that is sought after will bring a good price almost no matter what the condition where many of the current "hot" cards are only up in a "10" or a "9" holder...... look and see what they are selling for as a 6 or a 7 ( or raw for that matter) and look at those 7s and tell me they are really much different from the ones selling for 100x more! Guess you can tell Im kinda old school eh???

I think the OP is mainly asking about modern cards (1980+), and a lot of you are answering about top tier vintage cards. The placement of this question on a Pre-war board is probably what's causing the confusion. Vintage cards are going up some this past quarter, but nothing like the bubble market happening in modern basketball and baseball.

I agree with this, although the change would have to be very significant to see a meaningful price correction in vintage. More likely the economy returns to something like normalcy and we see a slow march higher.

My comments are limited to vintage baseball cards. That’s what this board is about.

I don't know if I would call buying Zion rookies an investment. More like speculation. And there's no fun in speculating unless the risk and rewards are high; so you've got a lot of people pumping right now. But if Zion is Greg Oden and Luka cools off you'll see the same dump.

Even if Zion is the next Lebron James I don't think those prices can sustain themselves. There is zero room to go up

But there's a lot of money to make after the PUMP. You just don't want to still be left holding the bag after the dump.

I'm astounded that a 1981 Topps Magic Johnson PSA 10 has gone from a $400-$500 card to a $3700-$4000 card in less than 2 years.
A bought a 1981 Bird last year way above the current market (at that time) for $1125.00 because it was truly a spectacular card. I figured I bought well into the upside, but I love the card so I just moved on and enjoyed it. I have come to find it's a $4k card now. That is ridiculous. I guess it only takes 2-3 guys to blow a market out of sight, but I have never imagined how hot these cards could have become. Frankly, I hope the market comes down quite a bit. There are many cards I figured would creep up over time, but I had plenty of time to find and collect. Now I'm totally priced out. I loved Magic. I wanted an exceptional 1981 Topps card of him. No chance, Lol.

Guys, basketball and baseball are two completely different markets.

--Basketball cards truly are global in reach. I've seen card shows in Europe and they focus heavily on basketball. Asia also has tremendous basketball collecting.

--Nearly all basketball cards are postwar, so there isn't the vintage-postwar-modern gap and resulting disdain that baseball card collecting has. No derisive references to "shiny crap".

--The better question is whether basketball cards are catching up to baseball and football. I think that with the exception of certain mainstream sets and stars basketball cards have been underpriced for years. The proof is that prices are going up across a broad swath of basketball, not just MJ, LeBron and current speculative cards like Zion. For example, a PSA 8 Dr. J. RC (1972 Topps) has more than doubled in the last year. Now, is it overpriced at $1900 or was it criminally underpriced at $800? The breadth of price increases in basketball signals that something is up besides just boredom.

Not to say that the other theories are wrong. Far from it. There is a lot of easy money sloshing around right now. Lots of white collar and professional class workers did not lose their jobs and haven't seen the reductions in earnings that were initially feared, and some of them (the ones who own small businesses) are even receiving substantial free money in the form of forgivable PPP loans from the SBA. Add lots of free time and limited entertainment options to the mix (which reduces expenditures on event attendance, vacations, movies, concerts, restaurants, etc., to zero) and you get some cash freed up for collecting.

I don't think the prices on basketball will hold but I don't see a slide back down to where they were either. I've sold off all of my early MJ cards--way too much profit there to leave it alone--but I am looking for other cards actively to fill out my earlier basketball collection at the right prices.

Well said. Especially, the global reach of basketball and the vintage-postwar-modern gap.

Is the global market that much of a factor? eBay allows you to filter overseas auctions and block overseas buyers as a seller.

I honestly think the jump in prices you're referencing (Dr. J rookie, Bird / Magic rookie) is due to two factors:

The Last Dance
Kobe Bryant's untimely death

I think the real question is whether or not the prices are now standards or at their ultimate height.

Just this past week a guy I know on EBAY turned down $23,500 for his 1986 Panini Italian Mike Tyson PSA 10.

The buyer settled for the BGS 9.5 at $11,750.

The market is on fire. It is across the board and there is money coming in from every direction.

I'd agree the price jumps are people who are jumping back into the hobby or joining for the first time because of the lock down. I'm definitely a member of that group, I got re interested in cards because I was bored sitting around the house and was going through my old collection. I'm not one of the people spending thousands on a card but I have spent my fair share getting back into my old collecting interests.

I think there is a lot of truth to this. I noticed prices creeping up over a year ago. I am primarily a vintage set builder and I mainly get cards through local card shows and from Greg Morris on eBay. My rule of thumb was I'd pay 30-40% of Beckett high book for cards in EX/NM condition. I used to pick up 10 to 15 cards at a crack, from GM, sticking to that rule. Last year, I was lucky if I could get 2 to 3 and often I would strike out completely. All the other factors mentioned above certainly contribute. But, it all seemed to start with Gary V.

One example really sticks out in my mind. I am three cards away from finishing 1970 Topps. One of those cards is #550, Frank Howard. Beckett shows this card has a $8 high book value. In one recent Greg Morris auction, that card went for nearly $49. I will grant it was NM, but it's centering was 60-40 at best. That is just nuts.

I am also 6 cards from finishing 1968 Topps, one of which is the Ryan rookie card. Right now the prices are outrageous. I have a BGS 4 1956 Mantle that I could probably trade straight up for one. But, I'm more content to wait for the bubble to pop.

On February 28th there was a thread started on this main page about the stock market decline and I was one of the loan bulls on the card market. I remain as bullish as ever.

People just don't understand how many new buyers have entered the market. The number of watchers on marque items have exploded and bid lists are as long as ever.

There has been a fundamental shift in the market and while cards that have gone up 700% in a few months will naturally correct there are other cards that have been in steady long term up trends and have broken out and keep making new highs.

You are not going to see every card go back to even close to where they were and some will just keep going much higher.

I collect wrestling and prices on legends have just exploded. Just when you think they can't go any higher they do. One of the more common sets is the 1985 Topps WWF set. A Hogan 9 has gone from roughly $50 to $300 with numerous sales in the past few months. Will it hold the peak? Maybe. Maybe not but it isn't going back to $50 under any circumstances.

If you look at just the fundamentals of the market and forget about what you think the cards should sell for, it is the strongest the market has ever been in the ten plus years I have been super active. Nothing goes cheap. Anything that anyone thinks should have some value goes at full price or higher. It is what it is.

Those predicting some massive collapse were the first ones last year to say the end was near. Only to be so wrong it is not even funny. Prices that were supposed to collapse for high grade cards did nothing but explode. How anyone can take their predictions seriously is beyond me.

The bottom line is people like cards and will always like cards and when you have a dramatic shift in the demand curve and there isn't an ability to have a dramatic shift in the supply curve you have exploding prices. Then once prices rise people want the stuff even more and you have the perfect storm.

I have always said that prices are predicated on bragging rights and once something is perceived to have value the interest increases and prices go even higher. This is exactly what is taking place.

Will a Jordan 1986 Fleer have a correction of some kind? Sure but it isn't going to get even close to retracting its recent gains and longer term is only going higher.

The bull market is only gaining steam and prices just keep going for so many different cards. Gary V as I stated has certainly helped the market and has brought in so many more eye balls through Twitter but he isn't the only thing driving it. People see rising prices and love hard assets and this game is far from over.

StockX people are now in the card game like they do with Sneakers. And basketball is their sport of choice 1980-current

Darn fool kids :D

I could guess you had a brain...unlike the idiots:rolleyes:

Wow great info Swarmee, thanks for the link too. I also liked your previous reply. Thanks for more valuable insight.

The poster seemed pretty optimistic about a rebound on his collection. Do you know if the plummet has continued?

I agree that the global reach of basketball is truly the X-Factor here. I'm from NJ/Philadelphia and I remember recently hearing a story about a US traveler seeing a Joel Embiid billboard in India of all places.

And of course eBay has the International depot for mailing which i think is in Kentucky, so that helps open the door to selling to anyone in the world. Russia, China, whoever.

I think you may have hit it on the head here man! Well stated. Thanks for the thoughts.

I wasnt aware of that, but if its true (and I dont doubt you), then that could also play a factor now and/or in the future.

StockX is hugely popular at least in my area of North Jersey and New York City. Not sure about other places, but I assume theyre pretty well known all around. Thanks for the information!

I've seen this crazy rise, and agree with what most of the other folks in this thread have said. I think some cards will go down (e.g., Mike Trout RC, how good are his career stats going to be if he loses a season in his prime if most of this season is cancelled?) The rest, however, I think are going to stay at the current level with only modest drops, if at all.


The reason behind it is what most of the others have said. If you are employed, with a decent savings/investment account, where else are you going to put your money? This is a lot of the same reason why it seems the stock market is irrationally high even in a deep recession. The Fed is printing money like crazy, yet interest rates are near zero with little inflation. I think folks are treating baseball cards like gold because there are only "limited" quantities of it. And the fact that the values keep going up feeds more of the buying frenzy. If you've had your collection for a few years, it's most likely worth considerably more than what you paid for those cards. So if you sell some of them to lock in the profit, what do you do with that money? I have the feeling that people are just plowing that money right back into buying more cards.

There are plenty of economists that are discussing the white collar layoffs. Will they arrive? In my little corner of the world (WA state) government jobs are about to take a hit. Our county was already in trouble when the quarantine hit (i have nothing good to say about our county commissioners), so we now have a double whammy problem looking at loss of tax revenues.

Boeing has announced layoffs. This will reverberate across the entire state. They order aluminum from Spokane.

I don't follow other state economies closely, but my national union (NAT'L EDU ASSOC) believes 1.8 million education jobs are at risk across the USA. Lots of paras and classified staff will be negatively affected, as well as general staff at public and private colleges and universities. I got a very cryptic email about reduction in hours from my side job on Monday, telling me they will have more information on Thursday. I work at Whitman College library, which is a rather prestigious west coast school. I thank God every day I'm not low man on the totem pole at my public K-12 school in case a riff happens.

Tough times lay ahead for many people. White collar workers will face a reckoning eventually, and the bubble will burst for modern cards. And baseball is doing its part to ruin excitement as well.

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Prices on cards are up for all of the reasons mentioned. The Coronavirus has amplified that with even more people being online everyday. With unemployment being so high there are more people at home (surfing the net).

And where else are you going to put your money right now? Cards almost seem safe compared to the stock market. LOL

I know that it low dollar compared to most of what previous posters have been discussing, but for a percentage gain, you should check out junk era unopened. Boxes like 1987 Topps, which for the longest time has been a $10 box, is selling quickly at $40. 1987 Donruss boxes, which were $25 boxes forever, are briskly selling in the $55-75 range. 1983 Topps, while not the junk range, is still more modern than this particular forum's focus. Boxes of 1983 Topps could easily be had for $250 at the National last summer. Right now, BBCE wrapped boxes are $750-1000. FASC even more. A lot of it is ridiculous, as the supply has not fundamentally changed and the desirability of these boxes has also not fundamentally changed. But I agree with a previous poster that the Corona checks, coupled with boredom, coupled with a lack of other avenues to spend "play money" like sporting events, movies, eating out, etc. has caused a momentary spike in prices. I think they come down in the next 3 months. Not back down to pre-Corona levels, but back down significantly.
kevin

As white collar workers lose their jobs (worst is expected in 2021), they will stop buying cards and do what has always been done before by stressed out individuals during a recession.... They will buy cigarettes and alcohol, and they will gamble. When people are stressed, they look for stress relief.

And retirees better hope the Senate does another stimulus package and give money to states and local entities. A lot of pensions could be stressed and shocked, just like Detroit in the last recession, then they had to file bankruptcy. A pension cut in half doesn't allow a lot of money to buy cards.

Of course the 24 rich individuals driving the boom will still be around to bid on cards.....

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I really was 'aimed' at getting this card, even went higher than prices i seen, because it is one of the best looking 2's i seen. But i be baffled, i got outbid on it.
This has to be a new 'record' price for this. Personally i think it will get bumped out of its slab to a 2.5 or 3. Its that nice!!!

Ended last night at Baggers
https://www.baggersauctions.com/Auct...6&lotNumber=32
https://www.baggersauctions.com/Grap...9_A56_PSA2.jpg

I really was 'aimed' at getting this card, even went higher than prices i seen, because it is one of the best looking 2's i seen. But i be baffled, i got outbid on it. Sat as top bidder for the whole week.
This has to be a new 'record' price for this. Personally i think it will get bumped out of its slab to a 2.5 or 3. Its that nice!!!

Ended last night at Baggers bid 4150 (4772.50 BP)
https://www.baggersauctions.com/Auct...6&lotNumber=32
https://www.baggersauctions.com/Grap...9_A56_PSA2.jpg

Everything seems to be selling well right now; good time to move all that bulk in the ol' collection.

Trending mid-grades--
 

Appears Mid-grade Ruth and Gehrig Goudey and T206 Cobbs are trending--if your assessment of a possible better grade on the Ruth shown, they got a good deal?

I’ve been tracking sgc/PSA Goudey Ruth’s in 2-4 and I think I’ve been priced out of the market. A decent looking #144 sgc 2 went for $1100 more today than it did 2.5 months ago (exact same card) for a 30% bump.


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I feel for you. In 2014 I was 4 cards away from finishing my ‘33G set...all 4 Ruths. It was the centennial of his rookie year and several people whose opinion I trust told me that his cards were inflated and to wait a year or two and they would come back down. Man I’m glad I didn’t listen to them. I scraped up every penny I could and bought all 4 that summer....they’ve just about tripled since then and there’s no way I could afford them now. Even the sun shines on a dogs ass every once in a while. But i know the shitty feeling of watching a card you want just sail away into the sunset.

Well, you all are welcome in advance, because I likely just popped the vintage bubble.

I've never spent more than $600 on a single baseball card before, but I've been slowly saving over the last couple years to buy a mid grade 1952 Bowman Mantle. I finally gathered what I thought was enough money recently, only to see midgrade (PSA and SGC 5's and 6's) 1952 Bowman Mantles are spiking right now.

So I had to decide if I should wait for them to come back down...or just go all in right now in case they keep going up and never come back to pre-quarantine prices.

So I bought an SGC 6 today.

And because of how my life works, I fully expect the market for 1952 Bowman Mantles to drop quickly and precipitously....starting today.

Congrats on pulling the trigger! I regret the things i didn’t buy infinitely more than the things i did. The way I see it, only one of 3 things can happen...1) it goes down (but you still have a sweet card 2) it stays the same (all good) or 3) it goes up....icing on the cake. Even the worst of the 3 doesn’t seem so bad for something that brings joy to your life.

I think it also has to deal with so many people coming back to the hobby, because there's not much to do but return to old hobbies, or start new ones. I pulled the Trigger on a 53 Bowman Color Mantle, for a little more than I would normally be comfortable with but, what's the worst that could happen? It goes down? I'm probably not going to sell it regardless.

I think Card's return to somewhat normal levels, once everyone's back to work in a somewhat normal capacity. I think post vaccine, it should be fine. I'll probably hold off on making any more super major purchases but there are always exceptions to the rule, so you never know.