I dunno, with Wall Street getting involved this may turn out to be an industry wide pump and dump... great time for sellers, buyers not so much...

Well, my #144 is still in transit to his new home, and, while I do miss him, I do have a Net54 label pin and T-Shirts displaying that same Babe Ruth image (along with a reprint and scans of my 'ex'-card)...that will have to suffice until Leon comes up with another way to share that image with the rest of the world...and I'm on board with a pre-order.

I believe Modern 1980 and up there is a lot Of Major Pumping and Dumping Over Inflating because they have bought up all the cards and cornered the market.
Vintage they ain’t or weren’t able to get cheap, hard for them to P&D.

Some prices really make you scratch your head though, to the point where you have to believe this. Like the recent action on Rickey Henderson, or George Brett. I'm not doubting there greatness but so many of those cards were made and are around, these prices don't make sense.

It's the same thing with the Michael Jordan RC. I own one, (Though I'm pretty sure it's fake) but regardless of that, so many Jordan RC's exist. From what I've heard you could practically get them for free when they first came out, I get it, he's the Greatest Basketball Player but his Rookie in a PSA 10 should be nowhere near 700K with the amount that exist.

The short answer is that yes, in general "printing money" drives inflation. It's not related to the stimulus checks but to the money supply. Here's a very simple illustration.

Imagine an economy with just 2 people, a can of BBQ beans and $100. In this economy a person has to spend all their money every day. One person starts with $100 and the other person starts with the can of beans. Because there's only one product, the price of that can of beans is $100. Now if we print another $100 and leave just the one can of beans. So there's still one can of beans and $200 available to be spend each day. The price of the can of beans is now $200.

I know the illustration isn't perfect. It's a ridiculously simple example, to show the effect that printing money has on inflation. Most goods are replaceable (e.g. food, clothes, etc. etc.). More corn will grow and more clothes will be made. So long as there aren't major shortages, prices might rise with demand but nothing outrageous.

For assets that are in limited supply like real estate, art and vintage baseball cards things work differently. The supply of these assets is limited. When more money is slushing around the system, some people choose to save that money...but others choose to spend it. A small number of people jumping into a an asset can make a big difference. That's where printing money drives asset prices (e.g. bubbles). It's not the only way that an asset bubble can happen, but it is one way.

People assess the value of assets in relation to other assets. That also helps to increase demand. "John's house just sold for $500K but the house that I want to buy is bigger. I'm willing to pay $700K for it." or "Geez, that 2010 Trout Refractor just sold for $500K. A T206 Cobb should be worth more than that". This further increases the demand and creates a sense of normalcy in people's minds that the prices are justifiable.

Asset bubbles aren't new. Bubbles tend to pop when there's a shock that changes the economic balance. In 2009, it mortgage defaults started to increase and banks stopped lending. It was the plentiful, cheap loans that helped drive the bubble. When the banks stopped lending, the bubble burst.

https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/...0921111206.jpg

What'll change this time around? Will the Fed stop printing money? Will interest rates start to rise? Will someone find a warehouse full of "one of a kind" Mike Trout Refractors? Will a new MLB doping scandal cause the bottom to fall out of the modern card market? Take your pick and make your bets.

Leon, there were multiple events that happened in the past year that I feel fortuitously mingled to simply get more people involved in the hobby, thereby organically stimulating a market that was undervalued. A hobby that is considered a safe haven by all stripes of investors.

The first round of stimulus back in April was timed right for the hobby because, quite simply, people were stuck in their homes looking for...a hobby! It helped that some in the middle class who never got laid off got $2-4K and maybe bought that Goudey Ruth or Aaron rookie they'd been thinking about for years. Or they bought a 2020 Topps Chrome hobby box. Also, card breakers on Youtube went nuclear because their format was perfect for the pandemic.

Increased media coverage during a historical crossroads may have contributed to the most recent bump, from mid-january to current.

Auction price headlines and the unfortunate and sudden passing of our giant Hank Aaron came right around the same time that a sea of what I propose is "dark" stimulus money was printed: the Gamestop stock cash out. On Feb. 1, this stock crashed and many, many of the sellers made profits. And it's a brand new generation of collectors. The common story I think was that you bought in at $11 and sold at $300. This injected new blood into our hobby because if you look at the timing, I believe it's clear that a lot of that money is now in our hobby.

My theory is this new generation's buying started with mint condition rookie cards of all sports, anything Ruth, then T206 portraits. There's others I'm sure but these were the most noticeable to me. Stuff that had been on ebay for years (e.g. Dean's) was bought at asking price.

Bitcoin reached its all time high back in December, which freed anyone who may have been stuck with it since its last big crash in 2018. If you bought last summer and cashed out there were healthy profits to be made. Its $46,000 per coin as of this writing; in March it was $5K.

In summary, I feel the traditional government stimulus was just one of many reasons new money has found its' way into our hobby. Students of history will recognize the uncanny collision of circumstances that make these moments abstract and somewhat hard to process as they occur. And there is evidence of an overall V-shaped recovery on the horizon which could make a strong bear position attractive to these new collectors.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/05/04/br...d-the-pandemic
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-GME/
https://www.npr.org/2021/01/27/96125...red-in-atlanta
https://www.tmz.com/2020/12/17/kurt-...-million-rare/
https://www.tmz.com/2021/01/14/micke...n-sets-record/
https://www.ebay.com/sch/m.html?_nkw..._cards&_sop=16
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/b...omic-boom.html

Something is broken when you go from one bubble a century to one per decade.

I think that summary skipped a few; off the top of my head it missed the Crash of 1893, the Panic of 1907, and the Hunt brothers trying to corner the silver market.

Then what do you think is? It certainly isn't due to Jordan putting up 50 against the Knicks last night.

The rich have cash to burn so they are parking it in collectables - other hobbies - such as muscle car prices - have went insane during this time period as well. The poor are spending the cash as soon as they get it on necessities - but guess who own/sells the necessities? The rich guys!

Personally I suspect there may be tax 'benefits' to holding something small and easily/anonymously exchanged as sports cards in some of these situations as well.

The Hunt Brothers trying to corner the sliver market....ah the good ole days. I remember my older brother going to sell his books of Washington Quarters and his Kennedy Half Dollars when silver hit $45 p/oz.

The infographic from the Wall Street Journal was in no way complete. If anyone's interested in the topic of bubbles and maniacs, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay is the definitive treatise on the subject.

I think the reason the card spiked is because it's been fueled by faux sales, like a lot of cards have. Seller X doesn't actually sell the card, but it looks like it "sold" for a huge price tag. Someone on this board makes a post along the lines of "how did X get this much for this card?". I see that post and sell my similar card expecting that price as a benchmark. Other people see the faux sale and think that it's a real sale too, so if they get my card for the same or similar price they think they've gotten a deal and I'm happy with all the money I got.

But the card that raised the price point for mine didn't actually sell to anybody. Now seller X seems to have a never ending supply of the same card that all hit the block after the benchmark is set.

That’s exactly what is happening.

Seller X can be defeated if everyone stops bidding. But doing that is going to be hard of course because people want stuff.

Yes believe me if anyone else says otherwise they are either just fooling themselves or being contrarian.

The stimulus checks are a smaller part. I have a few friends that got laid off. They are getting normal unemployment checks and a huge extra check every week. They are making WAY more money not working than they would make actually working. I could see this increasing the sales of cheaper(under 2K) cards but not the insane rise in the 2K+ cards.

It is not one thing.

--Some cards have been undervalued for a long time and haven't gone up in price hardly at all in years until relatively recently. $400 for a mid-grade Jim Brown RC was an asinine price. Take the 1972 Topps Dr. J rookie card. That card was an $800 PSA 8 for years and had gradually crept up to about $1500. It was one of the first pump-dump cards, going from that to nearly $10,000 in a few months. It then dropped back down and has stabilized around $3500. Was $800 too low for a nice RC of one of the greatest of all time? I's say absolutely yes. Was it pumped/dumped? Definitely. Is the current price more in line with where it should be? Probably.

--Some cards were driven by outside events. Kobe's death just before the pandemic, the documentary on Jordan and the Bulls. A growing understanding and appreciation of Jackie Robinson's legacy and place in the pantheon. The pending NL 100th anniversary and NL statistical absorption into MLB.

--Some cards are substitutes. Satchel Paige has four active-career MLB cards: 1949 Leaf, 1949 Bowman, 1953 Topps and the 1949 (ish) Exhibit card. That's it. The SP Leaf went to the stratosphere, people turned to the Bowman, which went up too, and then realized if you want a mainstream gum card of Satch, you better get a 1953 Topps. That card skied and people realized the Exhibit was left.

--Some cards have increased because collectors woke up to them. I think of the 1933 Goudey Ruth cards. Always popular but considered common and not a priority. Priced pretty stable for years. The idea that as of the last National I could pay high three figures for a low grade but presentable 1933 G Ruth but didn't bother makes me throw up a little in my mouth. Again, were they perhaps too cheap at the prior price? I'd think so. But definitely being pumped now.

--Some cards are simply up for demographic reasons: cards of the 1980s-1990s have been driven up in part because the collector kids of that era are now in their best earning years. I know a lot of guys who've bought their childhood dream cards. Many of them are PSA or Beckett believers and opt to pay a premium for a PSA card.

--Boredom: half the population of this country believes in the COVID lockdown and have acted accordingly. Lots of unused cash and frustration.

--Interest rates. What else are you going to do with your money? My high yield savings is yielding 0.5%.

--FOMO: there is a get in now mentality for some cards that are seen as going to the moon, esp. if they are staples of collections: T206 top HOFers, 1952 Topps, etc. Everyone who bought a 52 Mays last year is loving life right now. Everyone who didn't and who is working that set is pissed.

--Actual sales of mega-cards drive up prices of lesser versions. $5.2 mm for a 52 Mantle in top condition? Why wouldn't a 1 be 1% of that?

--It's a bubble. Once that is touched off, forget the rest of it. Remember 1991? 100,000 people at the Anaheim National ring any bells? Rugby scrums to get promo cards that were worth $100+ instantly when you walked in and found a dealer? The E card bubble before the Great Recession? The bubble on boxing cards around that time? Ringing any bells here?

I'm using this to clear out appreciated cards that i don't really appreciate, and to trade.

/thread.

Exactly. The money printing has everything to do with card prices. There is so much money around, especially at the high end of finance. Its overwhelming the supply when people want cards.

Thank you for all of the insights. It’s helpful to have perspectives from a recent span of time of what has happened from 2000 onward as to how the market for graded vintage has risen and fallen. Keep the insights coming!


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people invested in crypto and/or high growth stocks have gotten rich.
paper profits make you feel rich.

those are the people pushing up prices because they are indifferent to paying an extra $10k for a card

Exhibitman, Spot on!

I would add that those 1980s kids are also interested in vintage. They either couldn't afford or find vintage cards back in the day, pre internet.

There is probably some artificial inflation on some cards that is driving some of this, Rickey H is a good example. I don't think there is much justification for this price.

Let's also add rampant fraud and shilling. My rule of thumb in analyzing a card price is to throw out all PWCC and Probstein results.

Good post adam

A yawl in Texas is definitely not a "ketch".:eek:

But you can "catch" a yawl with a stinkpot. Trust me.;):p:D