Your potential warning sign reminds me of the one Joe Kennedy received, and acted on, a few weeks before 1929’s crash. A few weeks before the crash, Kennedy overheard a shoeshine boy intelligently discussing the market and giving tips. Kennedy famously stated, “[w]hen the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good.” He exited the market soon thereafter and saved his fortune. Will you do the same?

I have been...see above post. But

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...e/franklin.jpg

FYI:

In my other world, the one where most collectors exist, the prices on TOPPS FREAKING SERIES 1 Boxes are just out of control. Mind you this is TOPPS FREAKING SERIES 1, The flagship product for this sports card hobby.

https://www.dacardworld.com/search?S...es+1+Baseball+

Note: $29.95 is not totally terrible for a blaster box as after taxes it this is about 25 percent higher than if you bought it at a big box score.

Note the prices on the Hobby Box (Double SRP) and Jumbo (not sure what original SRP was)., And yes people are paying these numbers for these boxes.

Regards
Rich

Just look what the MSRP on a box of Donruss Basketball Hobby is at... Topps must be a bargain?

Hoops is just as crazy. I'm thankful I try to stay with baseball.

Rich

Hi rich and lamelo ball at $200 holy cow lol

During the mid '90s, I met countless "shoeshine" everyday people who thought they were Wall Street experts, and others (who also noticed that) that were using the same kind of Kennedy Sr. quotes to assume that stocks were ridiculously overvalued at the time.

There's a lot of selective memory used sometimes in remembering how accurate such indicators are. The reality of markets is naturally often a lot more complex and extremely difficult to predict.

For cards at the moment, I think the key to the vault is: "will this be just another junk wax fad, or will the renewed interest in the hobby be more of a mainstay"?

I admit that I really wonder what the answer might be to that. And if that were to go wrong, also fear for the possible downside of the endless string of PSA 9s and 10s of '80s - modern superstars that are worth 10 times what they were a year ago.

But I'm not gonna try to outguess the future too much

The shoeshine boy reference is more of an economic signal in terms of level of risk taking and level of demand over stocks for pieces of paper with registration numbers (stk certs)

I do find it funny as much as Wall Street have been waiting for the retail suckers to buy their large cap tech stock, they are getting derailed because these investors are instead speculating in Bitcoin, micro cap (weed, solar, ev...) names and SPACs. Now these same Wall Street egos are watching Bitcoin in angst. (We were so hesitant to put gold in our mandated portfolios before Bitcoin, let along pulling the trigger on Bitcoin now). If you look at proclaimed pm’s on Twitter, many don’t hold Bitcoin, but they are definitely following it on their follows...

But to bring back to topic, I find the analogy of prewar (to appease bird sticklers) versus modern to gold versus Bitcoin. The former is natural scarcity versus manufactured scarcity. The former is historically stable, but the latter is more in fashion. And most obvious, the former is significantly underperforming the latter. Time will tell.

I’m overweight prewar and gold...

good analogy!

Another less-frequently mentioned issue is the possibility of the next MLB lockout. That's one thing that really killed the 1990s card boon; the strike-shortened 1994 baseball season.
Everyone's saying the demand is here to stay, but a strike showed everyone back then just how fleeting that could be.

And if bitcoin and the other digital currencies crash, it could pull a lot of easy money out of cards. A rising tide lifts all boats, but a low tide hasn't happened in a long time. We've basically been in a bull market for stocks since 2008.

I completely agree on this point. Seems like the elephant in the room, especially for the modern speculative market.

I can't definitively say if Bitcoin will crash or not because I'm not knowledgeable enough about the subject. Still blows my mind that a currency backed by nothing is worth so much :confused:

Would be interesting to see if we get a repeat of history, if in fact we have another lockout again.

It’s all about demand. Regardless of whether it’s code of 0’s and 1’s where you cannot request physical settlement, or pieces of paper with dead men on it (as my wife calls it). Off my soapbox, finished my workout. Take care guys.

I contend that the US dollar, backed by the “full faith and credit of the United States Government”, which is wickedly insolvent and digging deeper with stimulus, is backed by nothing.

Yes.

Huggins and Scott Auctions has a sister company in the same building which is a card shop. It's been amazing to me to see all the different types of people buying in to the hobby. Tons of young people, many more women and people of color, folks from all walks of life. Their question is invariably "what should I invest in?" Fascinating.

Hopefully this guy doesn't try and get a refund through eBay's generous refund policy in six months if the market drops significantly by then. That's one aspect of selling expensive cards through ebay that has scares the heck out of me.

The only difference I see is they wear nicer clothes.

Lots of people are looking at cards and other alt investments because they are disgusted with the banksters. Wall Street is a rigged casino we are stuck with if we have retirement accounts. I wouldn't put a dime into their garbage if I didn't have to do something with my tax-advantaged retirement accounts. If I could I'd pay off my house instead but the rules have been structured by Wall St. lobbyists to prevent me from lending myself the cash and paying myself interest instead. I can't even invest in alt stuff unless I give those pigs a slice of it via fund fees. I am by no means advocating cards as investment vehicles, but Wall St. retail investment is a sucker's bet too.

Dean, eBay recently terminated 'remorse return' rights on cards. As long as i get it there in one piece he can't just hold it and then months from now decide to return it. I do see the point, though, which is why the vast majority of my sales are now through AHs or private sales, and if a big card is involved I insist on payment via check or MO or cash or Zelle. No recourse.

The baseball issue will be important but frankly a bit less important than in 1994. Baseball is still the leading part of the market but,,, the older rookie cards are in flavor as are soccer and basketball cards thanks to overseas interest. Football just signed a 10 year deal so they are in good shape.

And have you seen the Pokemon market?

Rich

Plenty of ways to force a return, either through INAD by scratching a card or slab once you receive it, or by telling your credit card company something so you get access to the 180 day window.
The remorse return thing will only keep honest people from returning cards. So I wouldn't hang my hat on that.

This is just one data point, but:

For February Round 2, PWCC has 18 Ernie Banks 54T rookies cards going live tonight.

EIGHTEEN !!


https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/curr...ge=50&page=311


Similarly, SEVENTEEN 1955T Koufax RCs.
7 of the 17 are mid-grade PSA 4's.

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/curr...ge=50&page=312


But:
Only one 51B Mantle
Only two 51B Mays
Zero 52T Mantle
Zero 33G Ruths
only one T206 Cobb
zero vintage Honus Wagner cards.
______________

Is this a random occurrence?
Or are some folks cashing out B-level HOF RCs and still hoarding A-level HOFs?
I know it is a small sample size - but I've never seen 18 & 17 of the same vintage RC in the same auction before.

That's chaos.

Some think this is the top of the bubble and want to cash out

Out of those 16 koufax. Only 3 grade 6 psa/SGC and above

We're seeing less and less 52,51 mantle or high quality stuff on market

We'll see how this goes. Really more high end collectors buying off every quality stuff or bubble bursting. Either way my stuff is not selling.

I've watched so many youtube videos and read too many articles from non-collecting reporters that I get the sense that many of the collectors aren't really dipping their toes into vintage. A lot of the cards that are going up in value are not even post-war, but junk wax and current.

I feel that we've been here before when Baby Boomers got back in the hobby after graduating from College, getting better jobs or started having children and getting in it with them.

This may be a little different because Hedge Funds and companies are getting into the hobby as a way to invest like they would a piece of art. I think that's real stupid way to go by the way. I also think that collectors or investors go in on one card, sell it and split the proceeds, or keep it and sell at a later date and the latter can become very challenging if a conflict arises.

Personally, I dont think Hedge Funds have any business in the hobby and all the crazy money is from stupid purchases by people who lack any hobby knowledge or common sense. It's just my opinion but I was around during the crash of 1992 and remember how collecting modern cards was back in the 1980's and there was a lot of speculation gone wild.

Again, I dont see a lot of hobby knowledge with these new collectors and it appears that they're treating the hobby as a stock market. It doesn't seem that they care about the cards, players or hobby except that it's a quick buck based on speculation...or gambling. These guys seem like day traders to me?

I purchased a 1915 CJ Speaker. I can justify to my wife cards priced less than $1000. But when it breaks that barrier.... it's off limits.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

I love numbers like that, a lot of times you can sneak in and find a decent deal when there's that many choices. Let the slab Queens go after the high end stuff and pick up something in the middle while they're chasing.

"Slab Queens" -- classic. Gonna have to remember that.

Auctioning off that many mid-grade examples of the same RCs smells to me like a pumper is now a dumper.

Slab Queens. Very grateful you're not copyrighting that so I can use it— and liberally. I was always calling them Sticker Whores but I love Slab Queens so much more.

If you ever wanna try dialogue punch ups for TV or films holler at me!

I’ve seen some crazy things over the last year and no doubt this is a bubble... I think it has a ways to go though unfortunately.

I started collecting in 92/93, right at the tail end of the junk wax era. Whenever I would go to a card shop it was usually just me or another kid or two. My older cousin was really into it in the mid to late 80’s and always talked about how crazy packed shows and shops were back then but I never saw anything like that. This weekend I went to my favorite card shop for the first time since late last summer and was amazed at the number, and types, of people there. It was jam packed and the first time I actually experienced some of the craze that everyone who collected in the 80’s talks about. I’m sure a lot of that demand is not visual due to eBay now, but it was fascinating to say the least. I have a feeling that this will last another few years if not longer. I wish that wasn’t the case though.

An example of how crazy things are. Run a search on eBay for sales of Allen & Ginter cards of bitcoin...amazingly, people are paying into three figures for this trash. I thought it jumped the shark when people were chasing A&G 'bug' cards a few years ago, but cards of a fake currency...we're into Seinfeld 'show about nothing' territory

GEORGE: See, this should be a card. This is the card.

JERRY: What?

GEORGE: This. Just a non-existent form of money that we make up. Call it "cryptocurrency".

JERRY: (dismissing) Yeah, right.

GEORGE: I'm really serious. I think that's a good idea.

JERRY: A non-existent form of money that no one issues and no government backs? Well what's it about?

GEORGE: It's about nothing.

JERRY: No real money?

GEORGE: No, forget the real money.

JERRY: You've got to have something to back a currency.

GEORGE: Who says you gotta have that?

JERRY: And who supports this money? What does it look like?

GEORGE: I could be on the coin

JERRY: You?

GEORGE: Yeah. You could base a coin on me.

JERRY: So, there's a coin showing George Costanza?

GEORGE: Yeah. There's something wrong with that? I'm a character. People are always saying to me, "You know you're a quite a character."

JERRY: And who else is on a coin?

GEORGE: Elaine could be a coin. Kramer...

JERRY: Now he's a coin. (Pause) So everybody I know gets to be on a coin?

GEORGE: Right.

JERRY: And it's a currency that doesn't exist and is backed by no one and nothing?

GEORGE: Absolutely nothing.

JERRY: So you're saying, I go in to Topps, and tell them I got this idea for a card about coin that is nothing.

GEORGE: We go into Topps.

JERRY: "We"? Since when are you a writer?

GEORGE: (Scoffs) Writer. We're talking about a baseball card maker.

JERRY: You want to go with me to Topps?

GEORGE: Yeah. I think we really got something here.

JERRY: What do we got?

GEORGE: An idea.

JERRY: What idea?

GEORGE: An idea for the card set.

JERRY: I still don't know what the card is about.

GEORGE: It's about nothing.

JERRY: Right.

GEORGE: Everybody's doing something, we'll do nothing.

JERRY: So, we go into Topps, we tell them we've got an idea for a card about nothing.

GEORGE: Exactly.

JERRY: They say, "What's your card about?" I say, "Nothing."

GEORGE: There you go.

(A moment passes)

JERRY: (Nodding) I think you may have something there.

That was brilliant, you could definitely write Seinfeld fan fiction.;)
I'd read it.
What a show that was.

The hits keep coming.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...aign=editorial