Printing More Money vs. High Card Prices
 

I have been wondering about a question I have so thought I would put it out here. If this gets political it will be locked. That is not what is intended. This affects both sides of the aisle.

Do yawl think all of the money being printed by the treasury, and the many trillions being doled out, has anything to do with card prices? It almost seems like there is too much money in the economy but I am far from an economist. A freaking 3.5 of this card just went for over 20k. So much for me getting an upgrade. LOL

http://luckeycards.com/r319rutha.jpg

Hi leon dont think so .But the market is insane ,,im selling all my labrons ,,people have gone nuts ,,its insane.

Yes.

where can you park your money

real estate - covid killed a lot of landlord(lower rent, not able to pay rent, therefore can't pay mortgage), so not looking into getting more

stock - overprice , it keep going up just cuz of money keep pouring in

cash - no interest at the bank

Card - at least something we enjoy, stock if it drop 50% , it's just number, a ruth drop 50% you still hold and enjoy the ruth right. and I know in 10-15 years most likely will worth more than what you pay

Leon,

I'm by no means an expert, while I do think the stimulus checks shouldered a little bit of the blame early on, I'm thinking now it's more because people are looking to cards as an investment opportunity and big money is getting thrown into the Hobby by people who would normally spend it on other things.

We still have portions of the Nation who do not feel safe traveling, or going out of there house, but still earning an income, the end result, I think is that money gets poured into the hobby. Combine that with the fact people see rising prices as an "investment opportunity" so new money starts entering from people who don't really know what a reasonable price is for a card and we get this result.

We also have the issue of card prices shooting up on various older players that are still alive because people want to capitalize on their eventual demise. Look what is happening to Mays' cards ever since Aaron died.

I have not been in this hobby for nearly as long as half the people on this forum, but frankly I do not think it's sustainable, at all. I do think some of the high end Vintage stars will maintain their value, but we see some sort of correction eventually.

Yawl is a sailboat.

Short answer to Leon... not directly. However the easy money is somewhat related as I do believe that the stock market is more likely tied to the rise in card prices. There are an awful lot of people in the US that make far, far more money and have far greater assets than they or their families will EVER be able to spend. Nobody NEEDS $1B, let alone hundreds of millions. At some point it's just a way to keep score and the whole concept of money as reality goes away.

Some with unlimited resources just want stuff and will outbid anyone else...well, because they can. And it only takes two to tango in an auction.

Imagine if Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos decided they wanted a certain high-end marquee card!

I also believe there is a certain level of "pump and dump" action going on.

My 2 cents.

FWIW I'm in the bottom 50% statistically, and got both stimulus payments of which 100% went to pay bills.

I agree that all the printing of money has caused prices to rise. I noticed prices on modern cards taking off when stimulus checks hit and now some of that is flowing into vintage. Also, people not being able to spend money in recreational areas frees up money for cards. If you didn't spend money on season tickets or vacations, why not put it in cards. It has also created a volatile stock market and people are looking to diversify into other investments like cards. There are plenty of influencers who got in at floor levels that are really pushing cards as investments.

I don't know if I understand how stimulus checks are related. Personally, I've received less than $2,000 the entire pandemic. I don't see how that would open a door for me to buy a 20K card.

I agree. People who can afford to pay 5 and 6 figures for cards are probably not doing it with stimulus money.

The question is not about the stimulus money that people received. You are correct, people are not spending 1200, or whatever they got, on big cards. The question is about the fed “stimulating” the economy buy continuously printing money to keep us from imploding. So yes.. without a doubt.. it is a HUGE player in driving card prices up. I have to run, but I will explain later if someone doesn’t beat me to it.

Correct. I got 600 dollars. That isn't going to buy much nowadays in nice cards. It's the feeling and sentiment of easy money that is my thought on the subject.

.

The Fed's Easy Money Printing Def is a big factor.

What I fear is happening is a lot of collectors are in somewhat of a panic mode of FOMO thus running up their credit card limit's on purchases because they're afraid if they don't buy now they will never be able to afford 6 months from now. This Upward Cycle in Ever/Always increasing values of cards doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon. If it does it could get ugly.

This is incomprehensible to me




25 highest-paid hedge fund managers made $32 billion in 2020, a record

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/-25-...n-in-2020.html

There are people getting the full 3600, with another 2800 coming, that don't need that money. Add in money not spent on vacations, going to cards shows, going to games, going out to eat and to movies, etc and there is plenty of extra money being spent on cards.

It is not like this happened overnight. Stimulus checks started hitting last April. Vintage really started jumping in January. That is plenty of time for guys to flip cards and have 5 figures to buy cards. There were huge run ups in modern cards, especially basketball and Project 2020, last year and guys have moved from prospects into legends as more stable investments. This is not the whole cause, but is one of several major factors.

I think money first goes to modern. And some gain so much start moving asset to more conservative and know vintage is better long run. They saw vintage market is undervalue for so long.

That's a lot of benchmarking and criteria to clear for stimulus money to have anything to do with a 20K card.

I think this is really a good point. While many people have been been greatly impacted financially by the pandemic (or more accurately the response to it), many others have not. Those that have not been negatively affected by the situation likely have disposable income that in the past was spent on tickets, vacations, etc. Some of that disposable income is now being spent on cards. Plus, at least with some of the higher dollar examples, it would seem that cards are now a trendy place to park ones investment dollar.

In my opinion this is 100pct accurate. It's not individuals getting stimulus checks, it's the new super wealthy that have significantly increased in number as a result of crypto price surge, the proliferation of spac issuance that instantly enriches the sponsor, real estate strength, etc. They are buying immense quantities of hard assets from the extremely rare to the limited quantity luxury items. Stories of individuals buying a ferrari dealership out of their entire inventory, super yacht shortages, low if non existent waterfront properties in prime locations. This will result in hyper inflation and will filter down into what was previously thought of as things that were considered available though somewhat limited in quantity to those making a decent living but were not wealthy. Things as simple as say lobsters (dont laugh), or BMWs, relatively fine wine etc. It is all going to be bought up.

I haven't seen a very good explanation for why a person with no previous interest in cards would suddenly decide they needed a 1953 Topps Satchel Paige.

I really don't see why there is a POV that the uninitiated are driving up prices. A 52 mantle, a T206 Wagner, sure, those kinds of cards will appeal to the same layman that Picasso does to people who don't collect art.

What drives a guy to buy a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson?

And so much for me hoping to buy yours after said upgrade! Watching whats happened to the 33 Goudey Ruths over the past two months has been pretty amazing, & REA last night felt like the end of my dreams... for now. Big regrets on my part just missing out on two 144s in major auctions in December :( In the non-Ruth realm, i was able to fill in quite a few holes in my ‘33 Goudey set last night.

Why can't it be both?

One Word MONEY

I*have to believe that the value of the dollar will have to erode longterm. The decision way back in 1948 at the Bretton/ Woods Conference to make the dollar the world's reserve currency was probably fine until Nixon went off the backing of gold in 1971, and all bets were off. Quantitative easing and Covid relief packages have left the country flooded in liquidity and the repayment of all these bonds plus interest will reflate even more. Let's face it the Federal Reserve's actions is almost a Ponzi scheme in that new investors are needed to keep the party going. I don't think we are at the stage where the prices of oil and gold are soon to be denominated in Euros, Yuan or Yen but do feel the days of dollar dominance are fading.
All of that just means that there should be ample surpluses of money for those who have some to buy sports' cards. Right now it is a wild and heady environment for those those who can play the game. My God, 90K for the Goudey #53 Ruth in last night's REA auction just seems surreal

Awesome card Leon - that batting pose is a classic!

We all know the fed/fiscal stimulus is the main reason for where stocks and cards are valued. Conceptually, it's not about whose getting checks. It's about how the checks are recycled (velocity) back in our economy. Say the $600 is used to pay for groceries or Pokemon cards. That cash is used to support the business selling those goods, who in turn pay the employees to sell those good, who in turn... Stimulus check keep our economy "moving" and bridges us to we normalize (whatever that may be).

More people are employed. At the lower-end, less people are in needs to selling their assets (stocks/cards) to make ends meet, which creates the demand/supply imbalance towards MOAR. At the upper end, that economic activity is supporting the cashflows of our cashflow producing assets, supporting the inflated values of our income producing assets. Until risk assets are valued using an almost risk free rate.... which is not sustainable.

And in a world where there is no alternative (TINA) to stocks because the Fed has pushed us higher in the risk spectrum for yield (as evidence by a 3.5% yield for high yield index!), the marginal difference for yield is not worth it (picking up pennies in front of a steam roller), and more people start looking for alternative places to store their wealth, whether it be art, Gold, Bitcoin or cards. There is no coincidence today that Bitcoin is down ~10% and Gold is up ~2%. People that are running out of Bitcoin are not putting it into stocks, they already predisposed with an alternative mindset for why they are in Bitcoin in the first place. But where did they get this money???

I put an earlier pose, that the Fed increased its balance sheet from 3T in 2013, to 4T in 2018 and not 7.4+T..... so yes, that money is going somewhere.

This is separate from speculation, which is also in our industry and is cause for concern short term, but indifferent long term.

As it relates to the $90K ruth, one sale does not make the market. It sets the price, but only at that time. In times like this, if you can't axe the bid, then value your stuff based on an average of recent sales...

And
PSA 3 52 topps mantle way off center for 90k

Current government policy with what is being printed and distributed related to COVID has an effect, but I don't think it's the cause. The rest of the bubble I believe will be cyclical as we've seen historically with cards since the 1980's, and for those of you that can remember - likely longer than that. What I don't know whether or not is / is not on the level is all these reports of investment portfolios getting interested in both modern and vintage cards. If that's really true, then it could be a game changer if not temporary.

But that's not realistic. How would some everyman be driven to buy esoteric collector cards without being a collector?

There are no newly initiated people driving up the prices for many issues that have spiked. It doesn't make sense that they would look anywhere else but prime time for something they know nothing about.

If I'm getting into art, I'm not asking to see someone's Lucien Freud collection. I might have heard of Andy Warhol though.

"Young investors new slogan"
 

Cash is trash!!

So here's what I'm wondering. If stocks, real estate, cybercurrency, metals, art and baseball cards are all overpriced, isn't it probable that cash is overvalued? The reason I'm not ready to buy into the concept whole cloth. The reason for that is we are not seeing wholesale price increases in staples. People have been sitting around with nothing to do so buying cards has been a fair enough diversion. Those who have not been hurt by COVID-19 haven't been spending money on some of the things like travel and, to a lesser degree, cars and clothes that we normally would. It's a mystifying time. I would think stocks would be the first to adjust, but what do I know.

A couple thousand in a stimulus check is not going towards a $20k card, but a lot of people took that money months ago and put it into a card or cards of some sort and those cards may have increased in value greatly in the months since. It's very plausible that if someone put $2k into the right card that it could be worth $10k today, and after flipping said card they can turn around and put the profits into something they deem to be safer such as a great vintage card.

The recent surge in vintage coincided with a drop in a lot of modern cards. I think a lot of flippers who were playing the game buying modern cards like Luka in basketball started seeing how volatile that game could be when these current players struggle to live up to hype in a real time season. I believe a lot of people made a lot of money during the last number of months flipping these commodity cards of modern players and now could be sitting on a five or even six-figure bankroll that allows them to ''get serious'' and begin buying safe blue chip vintage cards that have traditionally held and gained value over the long term and won't be susceptible to the up's and downs of an active player's career. Ruth, Mantle, Jordan, Gretzky, Aaron, whomever... These guys won't break their leg tomorrow and see their value plummet.

I can't say this is accounting for everything we're seeing but I can tell you this, I've been doing the exact same thing myself going back to December of 2019. I've turned my 12 years of modern collecting equity into some amazing vintage cards for my PC that I never thought I'd own.

There are a lot of assumption being made that people even take vacations or go out to eat. Those are luxuries many people I know had to forego even before the pandemic.

Its odd, because people are not eating out, or traveling (less experience spending), they are spending on material goods. At the upper end, private planes, boats, second homes away from NY. At the lower end, people like me, baseball cards.... =)

Money is money in every other context really except the baseball card world, where now your money is worth the least it has been in quite a while.

If you managed to save 15K and that money means something to you, this is probably the worst possible time to buy.

Because they "always liked Jackie" and they want to collect them all? Never a Bowman fan, but wanted this one in my collection. Not so much the trimmed leaf rookie or ugly 49.

I think many small business's, received gigantic PPP loans that you don't have to pay back. They were discharged pretty quickly and free $$$ to the wealthy, I hear.

IMO, I think the pandemic and a 40+ age group with monay to spend created a booming market. There are many factors to it but I think this is the foundation. I'm 45 and have a certain amount of comfort in my life that has allowed me to purchase cards I only dreamed of having during the card boom of the 80s. I'm sure there are tons of people in the same situation. The pandemic gave people the free time to explore and revisit old anew interests. I picked up skateboarding with my son after 20 yrs of not being on a board.

Enter the highrollers and speculators getting in on the frenzy and its anyones guess where this will go, a big inflated pissing contest that tanks or a lasting trend with stable highs and lows?

At this point I am thankful for what I have and defintely bummed that some cards I wanted are way way out of reach

I believe those are asking prices? Have they sold for that anyway? Considering what some of this junk is selling for, that is still a bargain, IMHO.

A PSA 3 is a PSA 3 is a 3 is a 3. Still a nice collectible card with many fine attributes, even if "way off center".:D Eddie, as in Anal Eddie. You wouldn't want my off center 3 and I wouldn't sell it to you. Not even for 9-0.

Agree, a 3 is a 3. I have no problem with off center cards, and i owned a few OC, i find great value for them.
that's the sold price, we'll see how heritage/goldin auction ends for these 52 mantle to get a reality of the current value

LOL. You never know when the good old centering debate will re-enter the equation! I would agree. A lot of the current thinking on centering preferences is the result of collective bias.

A lot of times, ppl compare a centered card with off centered but with similar aspect surface/corner, of course it makes the centering card look way superior
If you compare a beat up center 2 vs a bold color decent corner 2, i'll take the off center one every time.

Agree 1000%.

Not OCD about centering in any way, having always preferred clean surface, image, corners. Glad to be in this camp. It saves me $$. :D

More to topic... big time price for the last Uncle Jimmy Jimmie last night. It's a nice example for sure, but wonder if the fear of missing out on the Uncle Jimmy offerings had something to do with its premium.
https://www.wheatlandauctionservices...entoryid=19358

Leon-I don’t think it is that. I think what you are seeing is new well healed buyers entering markets where the supply of desirable goods is limited. If anything, it is probably analogous to Tulipmania, although Tulipmania was a bubble and I’m not sure that this is. If there was too much cash sloshing around in the economy I think you would be seeing widespread inflation and you are not.

It ain't a boat in Texas. LOL.

As far as the bubble aspect, regardless of the multitude and range of factors that have contributed to the rise in prices (stimulus, boredom, no travel, no meals out, etc. etc. etc.), some of the players will exit the market. They'll take their profits or losses, take that vacation or whatever. Not all of the people buying cards during this increase in prices will continue to buy cards. The pandemic will subside and many people will move on from cards for one reason or another. Prices will drop, whether this is a bubble or not, although I could see some of the cream of the crop retaining value and not giving back as much.
The big question for collectors is: how many new people who have entered the hobby will remain long term?
Then again, I've been very wrong about very many things before...

I think if the world ever gets back to normal and people start traveling and going out again regularly it will slow down some. We for example cancelled a Disney trip and another vacation to the tune of about ten grand. People are bored and cards are a good distraction and can be done from the comfort and safety of home. I also think there is a faction out there of rich folks making it cool to invest in cards. After the dust settles it'll be like any other collectable market and a lot of folks will move on to something else much like the junk card era or other collectable/investment booms. Vintage will always hold value especially the really cherry stuff but I think in time the hobby will correct itself and this current insanity will run it's course.

My primary clients are farmers, but a huge uptick in web sales for home gardeners when stimulus checks hit. In my case, printed money became a sense of food security for folks all over North America. Also, a form of mental security to combat the stresses of isolation. I believe hobbies, including cards, are experiencing the same impact. One man's hobby is another's business.

I don't think it impacts those cards, but it is enough to turn a $75 card into a $315 card, as another thread here was discussing. And if someone had spent their first check in the stock market when they got it, they could have enough to pick up a four-figure card, or get a good start on a five-figure one. With the tear the market has been on, someone could have relatively easily turned their stimulus check into a much bigger sum; QQQ was at $180 in March, and it closed today at $322. VOO bottomed out at $200 back then and closed at $355 today.

And what happen when next stock market crash. They just going to print more. Unlimited QE. Asset inflation even more

I agree, Jackie Robinson has transcended the hobby. Someone wants an early card of Jackie, can't afford his late 40s cards, but can afford the 50 Bowman.

However, I understand what you meant, I just think you chose the wrong name. Maybe you meant Warren Spahn, or Gaylord Perry, or Bob Feller......

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

$600 Stimulus checks are not causing Jordan rookies to go from $20,000 to $700,000.

I can only speak for myself but the two checks I got didn’t cover one months rent combined.