CAN WE SOLVE THIS HOBBY (SPORTS CARD) CRISIS? Video and Discussion
 

I watched an excellent podcast last night about the state of the hobby (warning, it is 31 minutes long)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cevkO8bZVM

While the focus of this video is modern, I do think they are some takeaways for vintage as well. I found the video and the comments section interesting.

My take on it is that it will be interesting to see how the hobby strives post the last 3 years. An issue have seen recently is a "disinterested" collector. Some friends who have been in the hobby a while and some who have recently joined are taking a pause on buying and collecting. Could be a variety of reasons, but it is not like it was a few years ago. Maybe this will pick back up next year.

Crisis?
 

I am not really sure what "crisis" you are talking about. It is a hobby after all. Everyone has their own way of collecting and people go in phases with it. I am on the younger side (especially for pre-war), and I have adjusted to prices by offsetting, whether people like it or not. Not sure the term "disinterested" applies to the vast majority. Seems like a small sample size imo.. but maybe this is more for modern.

-Times change, markets change, collecting goals and needs change, i would not label this as some crisis, maybe a bump in the road for some but overall i tend to think the hobby is still lightyears ahead of where it was 3-5 years ago.

Yes how about looking at the hobby before the pandemic set in. A time when junk wax was still junk wax. Look ahead to a few years when what is currently being produced will be the new junk wax!!

For those of us too lazy or too busy to spend 30+ mins on the video, could you boil down the gist for us?

Is it primarily that prices are crazy high?

Or is it that the modern market rose so much, and then has fallen so much?

Or something else entirely?

I agree that crisis seems like a pretty strong word to use, particularly in light of the stakes being that this is a hobby for a small section of the population, with hopefully no one spending more than they can afford on their hobby.

The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.

Modern and Ultra Modern are in trouble, big trouble. Quality blue chip kind of like that post the other day vintage zero signs of trouble only clear skies ahead... up up and away territory.

While the "hobby" and the "market" are closely interconnected, those that care more about the market have seen the peak and are looking their exit (or repositioning, such as high-end desired vintage).

I've sold a lot more than I've bought the past 2 years because of elevated prices. I do plan on buying more when the hobby cools off.

I'm not in the market for high-end desired vintage, and that may never cool off. I don't know, it's beyond my scope. I'm in the $100s/1000s camp, not the $10s-100s thousands camp.

That new stuff seems to be in trouble...and there's a lot "market" people into the new stuff.

I don't know how long the "affordable" $80-$120 hobby box with a "relic or auto hit" can last. Return on investment vs the desire to gamble is getting sketchy with the odds and throwing a few more border color parallels with stamped numbers are diluting things. The higher priced hobby boxes aren't keeping pace, either.

I Perused the video it is strictly concerning the modern card market which I agree is in trouble. Anyone who got into the stock market, the crypto market, the NFT market, the sports collectibles hobby, when everything was only going up up up and was only concerned about the money likely did not do well.

If anything this post belongs in a different area of the site…imho.

The modern market has idiots paying 6 figures for a player in their rookie year. Modern has crashed and vintage and pre war continue to go up. No complaints here. I left modern in the 90's for vintage and it was the best hobby decision. I'm sure as time goes by many of these modern collectors will wake up and move away from modern to vintage and pre war.

What crisis? Pushers, flippers, manipulators, influencers, certain AHs were able to artificially inflate the market for a while on modern. Of course it had to come back to earth.

Maybe the crisis is for all the vault lenders now that their ultra modern collateral is worth a lot less than the loan balance.

Oh no. The speculators who are still buying in and thinking we're still in the pump stage might not make a huge profit now? I guess it depends if one cares about a 'hobby', Fanatics profit margin, or making bucks flipping. As a hobbyist, I don't see an issue.

Ditto!

For those who didn't want to watch the video (I do recommend it), here is the premise/highlights:

What is the pulse of the hobby right now?

Lower excitement of the hobby.

Why are collectors selling? Some need money and some want to get out of the hobby "while they can."

Status of dealers, how are they feeling?

General malaise in the hobby.

Many pressures on the card market right now.

Sellers are outnumbering buyers at higher levels.

For buyers, should they buy now or wait 6 months when things will be cheaper?

Card shops that opened in the last few years are closing up this year.

Are you currently buying?

People bought high and won't sell low.

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

Thank you for summarizing!

This quote depresses the hell out of me:

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

Researching older players is literally WHY I collect. It's the best part. I've read/listened to countless books, newspaper articles, etc, on 19th century ballplayers to gain that knowledge and it's been an absolute pleasure. If there wasn't this aspect I don't think I would collect, yet it seems like that's the main barrier for the younger crowd (I say this as someone in their late 30's).

One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.

For the modern collectors who don't want to sell low, as Peter likes to say, no one can stop you from being buried with your cards!

And if that's not your preferred exit, then I suppose we get to the classic question:

Will you remain solvent long enough for your [modern cardboard] bets to pay off?

agreed interesting watch(dragged at points) and great summarizing.

Seems like Vintage is the safer play

Maybe a new Gary Vee will arise from the crisis and pump it all back up. Julio and Jasson!!! Or are they already yesterday's news?

Ya think?:cool::D

Exactly! That's what makes it fun!

I suppose that is why I enjoy diving into the history (mainly newspaper articles) of 19th century players. I've read the wonderful reports from Ed Williamson while on the 1888 Spalding World Tour, and I've read the well documented eccentricities of Dude Esterbrook, as well as pouring over the existing stats of all 19th century players.

While I write this I find myself comparing the careers of King Kelly and Paul Hines. Both have wonderfully fascinating stories, and while Kelly was definitely the media "star" of his day and had a great bat, Paul Hines was the better overall player (just as good of a bat at times, and a MUCH better fielder). If we were picking in a schoolyard and I had my choice, it would be Hines, 10 times out of 10.

There hundreds of these boring videos on you tube yawn

The Covid Era reminds me of late 80's early 90's where the thought of baseball cards were going to make you rich overnight.. Did it?

The people who got in and got out quickly and flipped their proceeds into marquee vintage cards at the time.

The guys who sold the supplies--Levi Strauss didn't get rich with a tin pan.

And the guys who founded Upper Deck. Dewayne Buice made way more on his Upper Deck stock than he ever did playing for Anaheim.

This is cyclical stuff. The newbs are crapping themselves because they've never been through the cycle before and if they didn't take profits or diversify, their fortunes are sinking faster than a mammoth in the La Brea Tar Pits. At a card show this August some shmuck tried to trade me a whole case of super-high-end shiny inserts...of Walker Buehler...d'oh!

hee hee, that's good---yawntube.

It did. Not in a fiscal way, but I am rich in 1988 Donruss. 1988 Donruss is more colorful than the Benjamins.

I hope the hobby can't be saved.

Then, when all the dorks are gone, the rest of us can enjoy again.

Doug

^This.

How do we accelerate the process of hastening the exit of the goons?

I’m open to ideas. There’s no such thing as a bad idea when it comes to the de-goonification of the hobby.

I don't think there's any area of American life that couldn't use some de-goonification these days.

Uhhh... yeah! Nailed it.

Ya know, I get everyone saying that the modern is in trouble, but where I see trouble I the low grade, ceased cards that are selling (or at least being offered) for $1, $2, $3 K+ each, especially the 1950s stuff. I could see a softening in low/mid grade.

Agree it’s happening low grade and beat up vintage is everywhere it’s not difficult to find. Demand in the dumpster division of vintage is down.

Every veteran of pre war has said for years "buy the highest grade you can afford ", "and buy the Hofers first".

it's always been good advice.

Very Smart Advice !

There isn't a 'market'; there are several. What happens with all the shiny crap has no relationship to what happens to T206 Wagners, which in turn has little to do with the demand for 1933 Goudey commons, and so on.

BTW, the lower grade collector is alive, well and spending from his $100 a month budget.

I am also a long time Cub guy, over 50 years. But I also found over the years that by diving deep into Cub history not only deepened my knowledge of the Cubs but baseball entirely. I got caught up in the 80's and 90's craze because that was the thing at the time. I became a set collector so bought box after box to put sets together. However, when the 1 of 1's and the "insert" cards started coming out I realized I could not longer put a set together so got out and started concentrating on pre 1948 Cubs. I sold all my newer stuff. I think that is what this video is all about. Covid came and people got caught up in "buy the new boxes cheap, sell the most expensive cards" and repeat. They were and still are not, for the most part true collectors, they are entrepreneurs who are now losing their shirt and complaining.

Future sports cards hobby predictions--who knows?
 

The year 1986--Fleer basketball was distributed by all the Candy Co, the product wasn't that rare, it just didn't sell--Fact --the delivery drivers were instructed to pickup all unsold boxes in their area then given the opportunity to purchase them for $6.00/box--one driver bought 35 boxes and opened then all. Yep, he had over 100 Jordan RC (approx. 3 sets per box), in fact anyone had the offer to buy them at that price--even so the company returned 3 cases back to their Fleer distributor!---who would had thought, if discussing Train Collectors future, for a comparison, please chime in ?

Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.

Had to laugh when I saw this - I'm suffering through the same issue Leon.

From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.

In the past yes, I would agree with you. But not right now. There is some correlation.

"A rising tide lifts all boats". Interest in any area of the hobby helps the entire hobby. But concern in one area has impact, abit small, in other areas.

Shocking!

Except that a boat with a hole in it just becomes further underwater.

There was a post a while back about collecting goals for the next year.

Like a few of you have mentioned, the stuff in grades I prefer to collect (er, used to) is now out of my budget. So to fill the void, I have been dabbling in a small handful of the the brightest current modern stars. I have been buying raw cards on ebay, then send to PSA and have been pleased with the results. It has been fun keeping the hobby alive for me in this way.

However, my real goal has been to not sell any of my pre-war. And I have stuck to that goal. Enjoy and hold what you already have.

Sounds like a fun approach.

You mentioned that the grades have been pleasing. Out of curiosity, just how pleasing? 9s and 10s?

While not the only thing I've been doing, I've been taking a similar approach to some of my childhood stars with pieces from 1980-2010. But my grades have been almost exclusively 8s and 9s, which was sub-optimal.

And Topps got accused at about the same time of physically marking packs with a big hit for some reason.

It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?

I totally agree with you Leon. I still lose most anything I try to go after so, not seeing much of a crisis at this point as it pertains to the vintage stuff most all of use love.

Color me surprised!

Just in October, they had 429 items, with some of the modern pieces selling for 7 figures or close to 7 figures.

I think the recent comeback of card shows will fade as the market turns, particularly in those regional places you normally wouldn't expect to find one.