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Posted By: <b>bruce Dorskind</b><p><br />The Three Whales' Impact On The Prices <br />For Ultra High Grade Pre-War BB Cards<br /><br />For the past 36 months, we have tracked every E Bay auction in which<br />we participated.<br /><br />Our primary interest is in ultra high grade pre-World War II<br />cards. We identified three competitors (we will not name<br />names but many of you know them as "three whales" ) <br /><br />It was particularly interesting was to look at the impact that these three<br />collectors had on the final sales price.<br /><br />When one or more of the whales bid, the final price zoomed to more<br />than 30% over the Vintage Card Prices average. If none of the three<br />whales bid, the final price was 25% below the Vintage Card<br />price average. <br /><br />We also found that if one of the whales bid, there was almost no amount<br />one could bid to secure the card.<br /><br />Our belief is that the pre-war ultra high grade card market is <br />dependent upon less than a half dozen active buyers. <br /> <br />If two or more of the three whales drop out, we can expect to witness<br />a severe drop in price.<br /><br />What do you think?<br /><br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>peter ullman</b><p>Bruce...which whale are you...sperm or baleen? Sorry Bruce...that was uncalled for...not surprising though...when money is no object...the sky's the limit.<br />

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Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p><br />I agree. It only takes two to drive the market. I've seen this on other types of cards that are lower grade, but tough cards (for us bottom feeders).<br />

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Bruce - perhaps the reason the "whales" may or may not bid on a card has to do with the card in question and therefore the premium for the card has less to do with their involvement then it does with the item being offered. In other words, your experiment has no control.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>It takes two or three guys to drive up the market, but when they are done the cards they are competing for will be the ones that will fall. Timing is everything.

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Posted By: <b>Alan</b><p>This thread reminds me of the Seinfeld episode when George is talking by phone to those Texas owners calling them sons of.... & ....<br /><br />LOL<br />

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Posted By: <b>Eric B</b><p>That helps confirm what I have always believed. But it's interesting that the average is right smack in the middle of when they bid and when they don't.<br /><br />The same thing happens to me on one particular non-sports set. If I bid on something I need it usually costs me $150. When I don't the other guy gets it for about $30. So I'm the Grouper of non-sports.

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>(Another) Good post Bruce and absolutely true. There are a small number of very wealthy collectors who are big not only into the pre-war cards but also into 52 Topps, 53 Bowman, 53 Topps and a few others. Without exception they are interested in the highest grade possible. The high prices such as the $600,000 for the 51 Bowman Mantle PSA 10 are dependent upon the owner or the auction house successfully playing one of these off against the other.<br /><br />However, collectors can fight back. Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was intertested in. For me trying to build psa 8 sets it just means I have to step aside frequently and let the whales battle it out and hopefully another copy will surface.<br /><br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Jim - "Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was interested in."<br /><br />I've always wondered about such arrangements; it's seems like it would be collusion and illegal, but I also see it is a buyer's yin to the seller's yang of potentially shilling.

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Bruce is obviously right. It only takes one of the whales to skew the market and make it appear that prices are stronger than they truly are. For example, there was a PSA 7 T206 card I desperately wanted; I sniped very high and lost the card at around $1500; the winner was one of the big guys (a friend of mine who always -- and I mean always -- outsnipes my most outlandishly high snipes). Literally a week later the same card came up in PSA 7 (and there are about 6 examples of the card in PSA 7); I got it for $850.

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I thought the term "whales" was used in the gambling industry? Oh wait, sometimes cards are a gamble!! I think the precipitous DROP in higher grade (but not highest grade) PSA cards values have been a real eye opening to some folks. I am glad I don't have a ton of 8's right now... In speaking with the largest PSA auctioneer in the past few days he tells me that he thinks the 8 grade might no longer be the grade that will be highly sought after. It will be the 9 grade. Personally I like to collect cards so it doesn't matter at all to me. As for knowing things within the hobby with respect to large sales I would concur with Jim on that issue. Knowledge is king....he who has the most will be most successful. best regards

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Posted By: <b>dennis</b><p>good post, somehow the major players ought to get in touch....i just wonder if that is possible?

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>I do not agree with the largest auction house on this one. Every single one of the whales builds sets. In fact the vast majority of PSA vintage collectors are set builders. Although we are dealing with very wealthy people here, building sets in PSA 9 or better could be prohibitively expensive as well as unattainable as the cards in some cases do not exist.<br /><br />As far as the drop in card values of high end PSA cards I think that this is isolated to a few sets and low pops. For the pre-war and 48-59 sets I am building I do not see any general decline in the prices on high grade cards. Trust me Leon as I building over 100 sets and stay on top of values.<br /><br />Lastly as to collusion, I have never participated in this but I am not a buyer of the psa 9 Cobbs and Ruths--just give me an 8(or even better an 8.5 upon review) and I will be happy.<br /><br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>good post bruce. this is something i've mentioned before when discussing the pricing on high-grade T206. i know the "three whales" that you speak of, and have sold/traded with all 3 of them many times. i am even proud to say that i outbid and won a PSA 9 T206 2 years ago from the biggest of the "whales". <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />when there is a card up for auction, and 2 or more of them need it...look out. fireworks.<br /><br />be well.<br />michael sarno

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Posted By: <b>Rich Klein</b><p>For those customers who come into card shops and purchase the modern high end wax boxes of a couple hundred dollars or more<br /><br />I also realized watching this, of a old story once told me -- Hage's dairy cards when put on EBay were being sought after if needed by 2 very big collectors (one of which was the late Larry Fritsch) -- if these 2 collectors both needed the card, the EBay sale could be up to $500 -- if both had it -- the 3rd collector who had more patience would buy those cards for $30-50.<br /><br /><br />Regards<br />Rich

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>From what I remember you said before it sounds like Joe will be giving you lots of 8.5's very soon. I am sure the thousands of other PSA 8 collectors will be overjoyed......best regards

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Michael,<br /><br />Nice going--the Dons and the guy with a country named after him can be tough to beat. Also the Cali CEO would be tough to beat if he had to have the card. The whales identities change a bit as get into early post-war but same concept.<br /><br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Leon,<br /><br />Likely you won't but I am sure many of my collecting friends will be happy for me. Law of averages says that if you submit 20,000 that you will get a fair number of 8.5s. Of course all the big collectors are resubmitting.<br /><br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>Brian</b><p>90% of all people think they are above average

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Steve Novella has been listing a Donlin seated PSA 8 for $4995; it just went in the SCP auction for $1300. Prices are falling.....

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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>"The same thing happens to me on one particular non-sports set. If I bid on something I need it usually costs me $150. When I don't the other guy gets it for about $30. So I'm the Grouper of non-sports."<br /><br />Shoot me an email when you get a second. Your thoughts echo mine exactly (in non-sports). I want to make sure I'm not your "other guy". <br /><br />Jim VB<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>Jim - "Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top (sic) be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was interested in."<br /><br />Matt- "I've always wondered about such arrangements; it's seems like it would be collusion and illegal, but I also see it is a buyer's yin to the seller's yang of potentially shilling."<br /><br />I disagree Matt. We minnows do it all the time. If Patrick is keen on a particular catcher card that he knows that I too may be interested in an exchange of emails will settle it. No need to run up a fellow member. It's a matter of congeniality we all expect from fellow collectors.<br /><br />Now if a Halla or Bohen comes up, Bob, Ben, Richard, Brian, Peter, and all of the other Z11 collectors just stand back because it will be dog eat dog <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />As for the whales we all know who they are. When I win one from a whale I know that I just paid at least two times what I would have but for him.<br />

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />No doubt true for T206 psa 8s and low pops that are no longer but I do not see a generalized downturn--disagree?

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>"Jim - "Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top (sic) be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was interested in."<br /><br />Matt- "I've always wondered about such arrangements; it's seems like it would be collusion and illegal, but I also see it is a buyer's yin to the seller's yang of potentially shilling."<br /><br />Steve - I disagree Matt. We minnows do it all the time. If Patrick is keen on a particular catcher card that he knows that I too may be interested in an exchange of emails will settle it. No need to run up a fellow member. It's a matter of congeniality we all expect from fellow collectors."<br /><br /><br />I didn't make the case on way or the other; just said I was conflicted about it. However, respectfully, saying that you do it all the time doesn't logically make it right.

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Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>is that you and I have done it.

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Steve - what we did was entirely different since I decided I wasn't interested at all, even at the minimum bid. I wasn't bowing out so as not to run the price up on you, knowing that you would outbid me anyway. But, even if what we did was the same, I can still be conflicted about it.

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Posted By: <b>Bobby Binder</b><p>If auction houses are allowed to place reserves and then bid them up to make the acceptable sale. I see no reason why a group of collectors can not get together and decide who is going to bid on which card they want.

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Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>If I ever look to auction off any of my core collection...<br /><br />I need to take the three whales out to dinner first (individually) and try to get them excited about my items.<br /><br /><br />With that.... I wonder to what extent the Auction Houses schmooze the three whales.<br /><br />I am guessing instead of first class postage, heck instead of overnight delivery, the catalog arrives to a whale on horse-drawn chariot with trumpets blaring.<br />And that is just the tip of the iceberg.<br /><br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Joe D,<br /><br />When the president of the largest auction house graced us with his presence in New York and his no comments when asked about their practices of taking creases out of cards, he had just come from a meeting with one of the whales who lives in a place that is not that easy to get to.<br /><br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>Bob</b><p>Steve: "We minnows do it all the time. If Patrick is keen on a particular catcher card that he knows that I too may be interested in an exchange of emails will settle it. No need to run up a fellow member. It's a matter of congeniality we all expect from fellow collectors."<br /><br />Absolutely true. I have benefited from kind treatment from fellow collectors who bowed out and have often stepped aside on many cards, myself, when asked.<br /><br />"Now if a Halla or Bohen comes up, Bob, Ben, Richard, Brian, Peter, and all of the other Z11 collectors just stand back because it will be dog eat dog."<br /><br />I know <img src="/images/sad.gif" height=14 width=14> It won't be pretty.

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Jim, on just the T206s, the cards are coming down in value both for HOF and non-HOF players (and I'm just discussing PSA 7 - 8 grades). They're still above where they were 3-4 years ago but they are significantly off prices from a year or 18 months ago.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Want the Sloate pick of the day?<br /><br />Buy PSA 7 T206's at today's levels. They may still go down a bit but they haven't been this affordable in a long time, and they are classics...and I have a bunch in my next auction.<br /><br />Now that's objective advice!

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Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> Hi Barry,<br /> Actually I agree... Michael and I had this same conversation last week. <br />I don't normally buy hi grade T206's already slabbed, but 7's are a bargain at today's prices. However, I recently started 2 new sets, so I'm not sure how many I can buy..... but I will be bidding on some. Be well Brian

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Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>To prove this theory all we need is for someone to put an uncatalogued K-Bat up for auction. I have the feeling that there will be an audience of whale watchers waiting to see who gets harpooned for another $10K or so... <br /><br /><font color=blue><b>Edited to add: Yes, uncatalogued K-bats will go high. I meant that each bid increment would be $10K, not the final hammer. I remember a few K-bats on ebay a couple of years ago that started off easy and one ended up over $50K. Two "whales" (one you could call Shamu because he's a "personality" of sorts and the other another big collector of K-bats) flipped their tales and there was a heck of a wake in the collecting waters. Being a rank bottom feeding collector I sat in awe like Captain Ahab in a dinghy in the middle of the collecting ocean.</b></font>

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Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p>Hi Fred,<br /> If the KB was un-cataloged.... you better make it 100K....<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I just sold a common one in VG-EX for 7.5K. An uncatalogued one would be about where Brian projected.

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Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> Hi Barry,<br /> If yours hadn't had the slight paper loss it would have sold for 15k to 20k.... Be well Brian<br /><br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Brian- why do you think it would have sold for that much? It's a relatively common one as KBats go.

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Posted By: <b>DMcD</b><p>Help! I'm stuck on this tropical rock 5000 miles from the action. All I have to do is turn my head away from the keyboard to see whales doing a nifty floorshow in the Pacific waters below. Wrong whales, right? So who da guys anyway? Any names forthcoming for us less in-the-know types? Would be grateful for the information, coconut wireless is fine, e-mail mo' bettah.<br /><br />"Dons .. the guy with a country named after him .." - tantalizing clues. Don Bangladesh? Zimbabwe? Rhymes with a female body part. Dolores Latvia? Am I close?

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Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p> Hi Barry,<br /> Because it looks like it would have graded a 80 or 84... without the back damage,,,<br /><br /> Be well Brian

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Posted By: <b>Eric Brehm</b><p>For T206 at PSA, they are #1, #2, and #5 Current Finest:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.psacard.com/set%5Fregistry/display_rsets.chtml?setid=83&set_name=1909%2D11%20 T206%20White%20Border" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.psacard.com/set%5Fregistry/display_rsets.chtml?setid=83&set_name=1909%2D11%20 T206%20White%20Border</a>

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Brian- I'll say you are a tad optimistic on the price, although it did have a great front.

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Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> OK Barry, 12K.... happy? but this means you are not Penske material.... or Play it Now for that matter.... Do you use a Rascal when you go to the Bodega??<br /><br /><br />PS When is your next auction....

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>George just recommended Jerry and Elaine invest in a robot butcher...never cared that much for episode 5, "The Stock Tip."<br /><br />Yes, 12K makes me happy. We've got a deal. Next auction closes May 15.

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Posted By: <b>DMcD</b><p>Thank you, Eric B.

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Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>I guess this means when 2-3 whales get bored or go broke, there will be a glut of overpriced cards flooding the market and it will re-adjust to normal prices. Cool.

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Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>"Jim - "Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top (sic) be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was interested in."<br /><br /><br />It is wrong and illegal to do that. Assuming you (Jim) in this case was interested and did indeed back off.<br /><br />Put yourself in the sellers shoes, 10 yrs from now you decide to sell, 2 or more persons conspire on who bids on what. Now do you still like it? I am amazed that people talk so openly about this. What would you do if a seller came on here and openly made the claim that he shills his auctions? Because basically you are doing that in reverse. The amount does not matter either. <br /><br />I will now take the beating that surely will come my way.<br /><br /><br />Steve

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Posted By: <b>bruce Dorskind</b><p><br /><br />Dear Steve:<br /><br />Whilst you may believe it is :"wrong" to call another bidder and ask<br />him not to bid on an item which you have an interest, we can not<br />believe that there is a single state in the United States that has<br />law forbidding such an action.<br /><br />In fact, we have attended a plethora of coin and card auctions, where<br />major dealers sat in the audience and openly agreed that they would<br />not bid against one another.<br /><br />We're not even sure if there is an ethical issue here. People across the<br />United States and the world, for that matter, will agree not to bid in<br />exchange for some form of quid pro quo in order to lower their price.<br /><br />Thanks for your attention.<br /><br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Not taking sides on this one but how is two people conspiring to bid or not bid different than the auction house bidding on stuff to get to a reserve...in essence shilling....openly or not? I am not saying two wrongs make a right (insert any number of jokes here)....but really...I don't see too much difference....regards

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>It would just be awful if the auction houses suffered from a conspiracy to avoid bidding wars. Can you imagine if, say, auction houses used fake accounts to run up bidders? Or real accounts in which the owners of the accounts were unaware that they were bidding on lots -- but because they were friendly with the auction houses they were used anyway? Just awful. I'm sure many heads of auction houses will come on here and agree that such behavior is just awful. <br /><br />&lt;crickets chirping&gt;

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Bruce- there was a well known case of several art dealers who conspired to keep down the price of paintings in the major auction houses, and I believe they were arrested. I don't have all the details but it is illegal. If something is worth $1000 and you and I each agree it's worth that, but by arrangement we conspire to keep the price down and one of us gets it for $500, I'm pretty sure that is legally defined as fraud.

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Posted By: <b>Brian</b><p>What if the we is just a me?

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Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>I wouldn't call it a collusion of bidders if they agree to back off on certain cards for each other. There are quite a few collectors out there that are on limited budgets and WE just don't have the resources to beat each other up. <br /><br />We'll call three collectors the little minnows. If minnow A, B and C decide to bid on certain items (and not others) in an effort to more easily enhance there collections then so be it. It's a co-op of sorts. <br /><br />I'll clue you in on something, even if minnow A, B and C co-op the bidding there will always be a guppy or two to take their place. It never fails. In ebay the minnows can watch each other. In the auction house auctions this isn't really possible so you could have a minnow that turns into a cannablistic minnow eating dirt bag that breaks their word. Something else to consider, what exactly is it when we start threads wanting to split lots in these auctions? <br /><br />One more thing - I have faith in most auction houses and I like to believe that they don't shill their auctions. Once caught and that's the end of any trust collectors will have for that house. People have long memories. I have heard of consigners having friends bid up their auctions. That is something that the auction house really can't easily detect and prove.

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Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>Bruce just because you can't believe it isn't so does not mean i am not right.<br /><br />Ask the lawyers around here.<br /><br />I made it clear that both parties had to have an interest in the item and then decided which to bid on. It is a lil different then 'just calling up a friend and seeing if he has an interest, but then again that is not what you said originally. <br /><br />Jeff, Josh, Peter will all tell you. <br /><br />Jeff, yes I know the sellers are just as bad (if not worse) however i was always told that 2 wrongs do not make a right.<br /><br />So to those that feel it is ok you should have no problem with people deciding which items they will bid on in your auctions? Or how much they intend to pay for any given item?<br /><br />Steve

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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>Brian,<br /><br />Wow! What a great question! The ramifications of the follow up are far reaching. <br /><br />If Bruce bids on an auction, as a "we", can he get in a bidding war with himself? If he bids as an individual, can he be accused of collusion and fraud for holding the bidding down? <br /><br />He's screwed either way.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Bruce- to continue my argument, what if you were the consignor of those lots and you were sitting in the audience watching dealers make secret arrangements not to go head to head? And what if you felt your stuff wasn't doing well as a result? Wouldn't you be pissed?.<br /><br />Auctioneers shilling bids, and bidders making deals to keep prices down, are doing exactly the same thing. They are equal transgressions. I'm not sticking up for crooked auction houses, just saying it goes both ways.

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Posted By: <b>dan mckee</b><p>Ditto to what Barry stated.

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Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>We're not even sure if there is an ethical issue here. People across the<br />United States and the world, for that matter, will agree not to bid in<br />exchange for some form of quid pro quo in order to lower their price.<br /><br /><br />Wow, that scares me. <br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Again, what is it when people bid as a group? That could take two or three bidders out of action. We do it right here on N54 all the time. <br /><br />Barry, not to put you on the spot but, how do you feel when you see those posts regarding groups bidding on lots to get a price break? You don't have to answer that (obviously). I'd like to see how Seinfeld would spin this... "well, if he doesn't answer.... WHAT DOES thaaat mean?" Sorry Barry, I'm just having a little fun with that.<br /><br />Maybe I'll check out some of those older posts to see if anybody here that doesn't agree with group bids have posted in those older threads advocating group bids.<br /><br /><br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Steve,<br /><br />To (perhaps) make you feel better, I immediately notified the seller(who is a hobby friend of mine) and told him what had happened. He was resigned about it and said what can I do--it was clear he just wanted to sweep it under the rug.<br /><br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>"Jeff, yes I know the sellers are just as bad (if not worse) however i was always told that 2 wrongs do not make a right."<br /><br />Steve, comeon, give me a break. Two wrongs? How about 1000 wrongs and an FBI investigation?<br />

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Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>The title of this thread should be changed to <br /><br /><br /><br />I can't believe what he just said.."<br /><br /><br /><br />Steve<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>Jim<br /><br />I am not here to feel good or bad over this matter, I am just giving my opinion. People can do what they want.<br /><br /><br />Jeff you lost me, I'm not Duke or Harvard , just NYMA.<br /><br /><br />Steve

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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>Fred, <br /><br />Actually, that has the potential to go both ways. 5-6 individuals may not have the resources to bid as individuals, but as a group may be able to add bids to the auction. <br /><br />Now, with only two individuals, and one agreeing to drop out... that starts to step over the line.<br /><br />But I have to admit, I have done it myself. I just never thought of it quite that way until now.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Fred- I used to partner up with those groups, but after giving the matter some thought I decided I would no longer participate.<br /><br />It's a tricky issue. In many cases if a 30 card E94 set is up for sale, it's reasonable that six different collectors might need only a handful of cards each, so splitting the set among them is a logical thing to do. Everyone can get a few cards, and all are happy.<br /><br />But the one person who may not be happy is the consignor. Often I've heard consignors tell me their sets did rather poorly, even though they were given to a major auction house. And it's usually because those six guys agreed not to compete. So it's a bit of a gray area; in the end the consignor loses money, but I also understand the argument that most collectors can't afford the whole set, and this would be their only chance to walk away with a few nice cards.

"I can't believe what he just paid.."
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- we said the same thing at the same minute. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

"I can't believe what he just paid.."
 

Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>I can't believe it's not butter.

"I can't believe what he just paid.."
 

Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>While I am no lawyer, I would think buying as a group (with one person doing the bidding for said group) would not violate restraint of trade and anti trust laws that 2 or more people colluding does. With that said we are now done with this.<br /><br /><br />Steve

"I can't believe what he just paid.."
 

Posted By: <b>Bob</b><p>Not just PSA 7s, 8s and 9s, tonight Whale #1 dove in to the Zeenut pool and sniped a couple of us minnows <img src="/images/sad.gif" height=14 width=14> Never saw it coming.