Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>If someone on the board has a suspicion that an ongoing auction is questionable (due to forgery, alteration, shill bidding, etc.) would you prefer that be posted on this forum, "outing" the auction, or not be reported?<br /><br />edited for clarification:<br />This poll is about reasonable suspicion; obviously if someone has 100% proof of a forgery, no one is going to be bothered by said auction being "outed." The poll here is on a strong suspicion of one of the above; as Peter suggests, the OP is 75% sure, but it is not conclusive. <br /><br />Vote:<br />A) Never out any auction<br />B) Only out forgery/alteration with 75% or above confidence but never out shilling, even with 99.9% certainty.<br />C) Out forgery/alteration/shilling with 75% or above confidence

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>absolutely "Yea"...<br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>Yea.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>Matt,<br /><br />Obviously this is in response to my comments in the Std Biscuit Cobb thread. I will reiterate, just because I don't want there to be any misunderstanding, that my comments were not about what you posting that particular thread.<br /><br />You explained yourself in the other thread and did something in good faith and in the spirit of help. I was just commenting on the possible outcome. <br /><br />Joann

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Al Simeone</b><p>Matt,<br />I would be in favor of it just for Forgery and alterations.<br />But I wouldnt be for shill bidding. It goes on all the time and is very hard to prove.<br />so yea for the top 2<br />nea for shill

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Matt,<br /><br />It's yea, but you need to be at least 75% sure.<br /><br />Peter C.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>If the card is something you know is wrong, or the seller has a bad history of which you are personally aware, then it is a nice thing to do. Otherwise, it just invites an argument about "outing" an auction in progress. If in doubt, I'd err on the side of not outing an ongoing auction.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>I'm with Al. Forgeries and alteration have one threshold of evidence. Shill bidding has a higher limit. It's too hard to ascertain.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Marty</b><p>I agree with Al. I doubt that anyone here will pay more than they are willing to because they have been shilled. It is almost imposible to prove. I am currently receiving unwanted bidding activity. I have a low grade 53 Bowman Color Mantle that is just over $100 with more than 40 bids. I know for a fact that I am not having this auction shilled. Just because it looks like shilling does not mean 100% that it is.<br /><br />Fake and altered cards could be pointed out with no issue if you are positive that you are correct. If you just want a second opinion, email some one. That way you do not out a good auction.<br />Marty

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Tabulating (the poll in it's present form):<br /><br />Yea (3):<br />MVSNYC<br />Steve Murray<br />peter chao<br /><br /><br />Nay (4):<br />Al Simeone<br />boxingcardman<br />Jim VB<br />Marty

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>NO, No, No! <br /><br /><br />Al, Jim and Marty all had qualifiers allowing outing for all but shill bidding. &lt;LOL&gt;

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>"Suspicion" and "questionable" are not enough proof for me.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Jim - you can only vote once! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> <br />As the poll is formulated, were talking about cases where the information is not conclusive, but the OP is 75% certain. Are you suggesting that if you're 75% sure its a forgery you're OK with outing it, but if you're 75% sure there is shill bidding it shouldn't be outed? <br />I understand that doctoring or forging is more conclusive generally, but if the case we're talking about is where it's not conclusive, what's the difference between outing that listing vs. a listing where you're 75% sure shill bidding is occurring?<br /><br />barry - nobody is asking you to convict anyone off of "suspicion" or "questionable" the poll question is, would you rather know that the item is seen that way by board members (the discussion would obviously follow the outing) or would you rather not know at all?

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Al Simeone</b><p>Thanks Jim! Yes Matt please re read what I and the others said.

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Posted By: <b>Al Simeone</b><p>Matt,<br />I want a re count!!! There was a "HANGING CHAD" on my vote. And if thats the case Im a YEA!!!

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Al - I think your 4:29 post and my 4:30 post crossed in cyberspace. Please read my response to Jim in that post.

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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>Matt,<br /><br />If I can only vote once then you can't ask me three part questions!<br /><br />I'll leave all questions about the difference between "preponderance of the evidence" and "beyond a reasonable doubt" up to Jeff L. His parents put him through law school. Mine did not. He's good at it. I'm not. <br /><br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Jim - it's a 1 part poll at the top of this thread (plus I used a smiley when I said that!). The questions I asked in my response to your post were for understanding your position. If you would answer those questions it would help me understand,.<br />thanks!

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>Absolutely 'NAY' - with regard to shill bidding.<br />would not want to see that reported.<br /><br />As far as Forgery or Alteration - I vote Yea.<br /><br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>As many seem to be splitting their vote, I'm hoping someone who is doing so can answer the question I posed above, namely:<br /><br />"As the poll is formulated, were talking about cases where the information is not conclusive, but the OP is 75% certain. Are you suggesting that if you're 75% sure its a forgery you're OK with outing it, but if you're 75% sure there is shill bidding it shouldn't be outed?<br />I understand that doctoring or forging is more conclusive generally, but if the case we're talking about is where it's not conclusive, what's the difference between outing that listing vs. a listing where you're 75% sure shill bidding is occurring?"

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Al Simeone</b><p>Matt,<br />I just re read it and it says "on a strong suspicion of one of the above" Im in favor of 2 of the 3 above . So hence forth and to wit in the presence of 2of the 3!! Our votes should be changed! Help me Jeff L. I need a few more legal phrases!!!

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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>&lt;&lt;Are you suggesting that if you're 75% sure its a forgery you're OK with outing it, but if you're 75% sure there is shill bidding it shouldn't be outed? &gt;&gt;<br /><br /><br />That question? <br /><br />My answer is "Yes!" <br /><br />I have seen cases where I am 75%, or more, sure that an item is a forgery, or altered. I have no problem outing those. <br /><br />I can't conceive of an instance where I'd be 75%,or more, sure of shill bidding.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>My point was that if it is not definitive, then I wouldn't care, and therefore wouldn't want to know. It could be misinformation.<br /><br />I need to clarify my response. If there was a suspicion that a card was altered, that is important. If there is a suspicion of shill bidding, but no proof, I would not need to know. In that situation I can take care of myself. If a lot is worth a dollar to me, I will bid a dollar and walk away.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Rob</b><p>I guess i'm pointing towards "nay". Like Al & company said, doctoring/forgery/alterations should be outed. Those auctions are offering items different than whats is stated/shown.<br /><br />But if I think an item is worth $x to me, and i get it for that price or less, I'm happy. If there is 99%+ proof that I got shilled, then I dunno what I'd do, but I still got the item for less than what I wanted to pay. Outing it may make the price go even higher than the shill due to new bidders!!!<br /><br />Rob<br /><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Jim - If the OP WAS 75% sure or more of shill bidding you'd still rather not have the listing outed?

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Jon Canfield</b><p>Just my personal opinion but I have no problem with outing auctions at all. This board finds every auction in every obscure category. Sure, you can argue that by posting on this board, it will get 1000 views from the public exposure when maybe 1, 5 or 10 other board members might have discovered it the auction if it had not been outed. But out of those thousand views, how many are actually interested in that piece? Also, there are times when auctions are outed to discover more about a piece or ask what the heck the item is. I know many will argue that instead of outing a particularly rare piece of memorabilia or card publically for all to see, you should privately email a board member to get their opinion on value, authenticity, what it is, etc. The problem I sometimes find is if I have no freakin idea what the piece is, how the heck do I know who to email? <br /><br />There are great arguements against outing auctions and I respect those that are totally against it. But I also personally have nothing against anyone who outs an auction.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>i want to clarify, i agree with Joe D:<br /><br />"NAY- with regard to shill bidding.<br />would not want to see that reported. As far as Forgery or Alteration - I vote YEA."

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>to be clear -<br /><br />if you are 100% certain there is a shill going on in a live auction.<br /><br />I would not want to see it posted.<br /><br /><br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Thanks you for clarifying Joe D. I will re tabulate shortly with 3 possible voting "buckets"

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Posted By: <b>martindl</b><p><br />I don't mean to gunk up a good yea or nay thread with perspective, but as Marty P pointed out, the appearance of shilling does not mean that thats what is happening.<br /><br />I sell postcards and I've had an instance in the last month where I was blessed with a zero feedback bidder who for some reason liked my offerings. He/She decided to bid on a bunch of random offerings (some town views, some Greetings, some Foreign, etc.) and by all appearances it sure looked like shilling. It wasn't, but I bet it kept some bidders away and some that won probably felt like they got run up.<br /><br />I vote yea on the obvious forgeries, nay on anything that might look like shilling.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>martin - what about forgeries that are only 75% certain?

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>No way. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> I hereby amend my response:<br /><br />I want to clarify, I agree with Joe D:<br /><br />"NAY- with regard to shill bidding.<br />would not want to see that reported. As far as Forgery or Alteration - I vote YEA." <br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Al Simeone</b><p>Matt,<br />It looks likw what I stated from the beguining. Make a poll change, to leave out the shill biding or make it a seperate catagory. What you may find is 95%-100% are in favor of outing the auction based on forgery and alteration.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Josh Adams</b><p>I say yes, out the auction.<br /><br />On another note, I don't see what is so bad about outing an ongoing auction anyways, regardless of possible shilling or any other type of shenanigans?

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Tabulating:<br /><br />A (3):<br />Marty<br />boxingcardman<br />martindl<br /><br />B (7):<br />Steve Murray<br />Joe D.<br />MVSNYC<br />Rob<br />barrysloate<br />Jim VB<br />Al Simeone<br /><br />C (2):<br />Jon Canfield<br />Josh Adams

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>"75% certain"...<br /><br />how can we quantify this percentage anyway...?<br /><br />how do we know what is 75% vs. 70% or 80%, for that matter?<br /><br /><img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Al Simeone</b><p>I guess us "B"s are considered YEANEAs!!!!

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>MVSYNC - I assume by the smiley you're being facetious? Obviously you can't concretely quantify it. The point is you think it's "reasonable likely" meaning, you have evidence to support that but it's not 100% conclusive, but it's also more then a 50/50 possibility, which I suppose means you'd be willing to bet money on it. We work on such assumptions every day.<br /><br /><br />Do I have everybody in the correct "bucket" now?

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>&lt;&lt;If the OP WAS 75% sure or more of shill bidding you'd still rather not have the listing outed?&gt;&gt;<br /><br /><br />For about the third or fourth time (only counts as one vote though)- <br /><br />HELL NO! <br /><br />I can not conceive of a case where you can be sure of shill bidding (51% sure, 67% sure, 75% sure, 99% sure). <br /><br />Use this auction as an example. I still see 0% shill bidding. You saw 75% or more. Although you had no real impact in the end, you could have cost the winner some money and you did impugn the reputation of the seller. Whatever you saw had zero impact on the winners top bid and, apparently, none on the underbidder. <br /><br />There was nothing to "out." <br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>martindl</b><p><br />Matt - you asked "martin - what about forgeries that are only 75% certain?" - personally, I'm either sure or I'm not sure. I couldn't put a percentage on my not-suredness, so I'd vote Nay, unless you're sure.<br /><br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Jim - do I have you tabulated correctly now?

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>Matt- i was being facetious, several of you guys are getting techincal (75%, 50/50, etc.)...i just was making it clear that it is near-impossible to quantify such subjective thoughts/opinions...<br /><br /><br />p.s. that was a "wink" <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14> not a smiley <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Al Simeone</b><p>Matt,<br />I saw that it was a Winking Smiley!! But dont tell peter C about it he hasnt yet figured out how to post a winking smiley!!!!

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Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>I want to change my vote to 2.

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I vote C.

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Tabulating:<br /><br />A (3):<br />Marty<br />boxingcardman<br />martindl<br /><br />B (8):<br />Steve Murray<br />Joe D.<br />MVSNYC<br />Rob<br />barrysloate<br />Jim VB<br />Al Simeone<br />Gilbert Maines<br /><br />C (3):<br />Jon Canfield<br />Josh Adams<br />Jeff Lichtman

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Tony Andrea</b><p>I vote "C".

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Matt- I kind of hover between B and C. I would out shilling if you are virtually certain; but I personally don't care about it as I would place my bid anyway.<br /><br />But if you are only pretty certain and have no proof, then I am still a B.

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Posted By: <b>Dave Hornish</b><p>I vote C

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>1880nonsports</b><p>because the only way you are in the "C" category is if you're the one doing it. 99.9% certainty (and even 75%) of occurances of shill bidding seems unattainable as there are so many variables and so many unknowns. You can catch an idiot that exposes himself in a blatant manner - like 2 dealers that used the exact wording which included 2 of the same made-up words and same sold material. Other than that it's mere speculation and as mentioned before could be used in a self-serving manner relative to a card or seller. I think we lose as a group more than we gain by allowing the outing of suspected or imagined shilling. With 150,000,000+ registered on eBay ya doesn't have to go to a neighbor or a dummy account - like any auction anyone can ask someone else to place a bid.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>dennis</b><p>i would only out an auction if i were 100% sure it was altered or a forgery. 75% not good enough and can hurt a sellers reputation if you are wrong. so i vote A <br /><br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Tabulating:<br /><br />A (4):<br />Marty<br />boxingcardman<br />martindl<br />dennis<br /><br />B (9):<br />Steve Murray<br />Joe D.<br />MVSNYC<br />Rob<br />barrysloate<br />Jim VB<br />Al Simeone<br />Gilbert Maines<br />1880nonsports<br /><br />C (5):<br />Jon Canfield<br />Josh Adams<br />Jeff Lichtman<br />Tony Andrea<br />Dave Hornish

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>That was fun!<br />Now lets have a poll on what constitutes a Net54 quorum.

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Dewey hasn't defeated Truman yet, the polls are still open!

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>1880nonsports</b><p>only serves to bring it to light. Most if not all people buying something want to know if there's something wrong with the item that isn't disclosed. Only my wife knows everything. I don't see the harm in discussing for the benefit of all - attributes that appear inconsistant in a relevent auction if you are reasonably sure it's in question AND you know something about the issue. As for shilling I assume it's going on some of the time when I bid in auctions. I try not to let it bother me as I could never tell. If your view of the world is negative I suppose you go into every transaction as if you're getting taken. I prefer a lighter view. I don't condone it; but I don't let it eat me up either. An artificial reserve is just like an undisclosed reserve in some auctions. Part of life......

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>Good thread. I've actually changed my view of this from reading some of the thoughts here, and considering the concept of certainty.<br /><br />Questions as to alterations, forgeries or shilling? Never. Ask someone via email. Asking on the board is outing without any benefit of warning anyone of anything.<br /><br />Believing there is alteration or forgery: Yes, but only if you are absolutely sure. Even 75% isn't enough to wrongfully accuse a seller or possibly out an auction that someone had missed.<br /><br />Shilling: Never. You just can't be sure enough. Also, bidding history is there for any bidder to see and each bidder is better able to protect himself by looking at bidding history for signs of shilling. It's not the same as fake/altered, where HOBBY experience is in play and the signs more subtle or unique to a particular issue. It's not worth the false accusation or unnecessary outing.<br /><br />So I guess I don't have a category. I'm not really an A because I don't think that Never is the right answer. I'm kind of like a B, but think it should be absolute certainty, not 75%.<br /><br />Joann<br /><br />(And one comment on it being impossible to out a properly listed auction. I increasingly disagree with that. I have a steady search regimen on ebay, and I still have people email me and tip me to items I would otherwise have missed - even if they are properly placed. You never know who will miss a single day or whatever, even in the main card areas on ebay. It could be that all it will take is one - just one - person that missed the auction to see it and really go after the item. Many auctions end with only two bidders that thought an item was worth 3x more than the next closest bidder. I guess that's why it would take strong certainty and a sense that someone needs a warning for me to out something live.)

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>*No.<br /><br /> *If you "win" a suspect item (or it has ended), immediately post the link here prior to payout. You'll find out in short order if it's a wise purchase. It's your Patriotic duty. <br /><br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>definitely, C, if that is the most liberal outing of an auction. Let folks know if a lot is suspect.<br /><br />I don't have that much of a problem with outing an auction outright. The auction is about the money the seller will pay, and that the buyer wants. It shouldn't be a hide and seek game. True, I'm tickled if I find something others overlook. But if I sell something I'd want all potential buyers to know of it. And if these cardprice sites are to have any validity, surely they should report what a card would sell for, and to remove that hide and seek factor.<br /><br />I understand that lots of folks are against auction outings, but I think that it isn't such a bad thing. If I know some collector is after some odd seldom seen set, say maybe he has a few 1913 Cleveland Indian post cards, and is after the two he lacks... if I were to see one on eBay I'd let him know about it. That isn't so bad, it helps my collector friend and helps the seller.<br /><br />Any of you guys collect 1913 Cleveland Indian post cards??? If you were missing one, would you like to know when one comes up? Oh yea!!!

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Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>be a 'b'<br /><br />declare your 'b'-dom.<br /><br /><br />embrace the b.<br /><br /><br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Ken Wirt</b><p>I vote B.<br /><br />I agree with John Canfield. Sometimes you just want more info about an item because you've never owned anything like it before. I realize that the best thing to do would be to privately email someone, but that can seem intrusive unless you are personal friends. I've never met anyone here in person (hope to someday), but generally trust the board's opinion as a whole. This can, indeed, be a dilemma.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>One problem I have with this idea about outing an auction for shilling:<br /><br />If you suspect somebody is shilling his auction...and you go on a public chatboard and out him...and you turn out to be wrong....you are going have one really angry seller, and he has every right to be angry.<br /><br />And I can assure you some of the time you are going to be wrong. It's putting it in print for the whole world to see that bothers me. You better be 100% certain if you are going to take that route.

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Posted By: <b>andy becker</b><p>"i would only out an auction if i were 100% sure it was altered or a forgery. 75% not good enough and can hurt a sellers reputation if you are wrong. so i vote A"<br /><br />how true.<br /><br /><br />shill bidding is speculation at best, under no circumstances am i in favor of making accusations that cannot be proven. <br /><br /><br /><br />and fwiw matt, i know you were trying to do the right thing this afternoon. i don't think it's ever appropriate to "out" a current auction, but your intentions were noble. in the end, they're just baseball cards. no biggie.<br /><br />now, if these were football cards..... <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>Ah Joe - you can tell I'm just dying to be a B, can't you?<br /><br />Joann

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Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>And in my hour of darkness <br />She is standing right in front of me <br />Speaking words of wisdom <br />Let it b<br /><br />Let it b, let it b <br />Let it b, let it b <br />Whisper words of wisdom <br />Let it b <br />

Poll: Should Suspect Auctions be Outed?
 

Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>I think we should have a separate poll for whether outing an auction do to probable shilling is better or worse for the seller. In this thread a few posts intimated that it was worse for the seller and he should be angry. In the other thread people were suggesting it was driving up the price, which is good for the seller. <br /><br />I also don't see a difference between shilling and doctoring in this regard; if someone is 75% sure the card has been doctored, and turns out they are wrong, the seller would be just as upset as he would be if they were wrong about shilling. So, the wrath of the seller wouldn't seem to be a reason to differentiate between options 2 and 3.

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Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>To me, shilling is of no consequence, I am a sniper. Therefore, it is not a reason to out an auction.

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Posted By: <b>Marty</b><p>Was this auction shilled?<br /><a href="http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=120172274063" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=120172274063</a> <br />It is closed.

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Posted By: <b>dennis</b><p>i think that the auction was not shilled.<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>I agree, that auction was not shilled. The major (in # of bids) bidder has a history of buying baseball cards.