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Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Guys,<br /><br />Let's say the bottom dropped out of the T-206 market. I'm not talking about a price adjustment. I'm talking about a major drop. I'll give you a possible scenario. Let's say that the steroid scandal got out of hand and people just felt that baseball was no longer America's pastime.<br /><br />The prices of T-206's were dropping each and every hour. Evertime you bought a UZIT back, the price of UZIT's would drop another hundred.<br /><br />Come on be real here, how many of you would still buy and if you continued to buy, which cards would you buy. Also, would it be important to you whether the market turned around. Why or why not.<br /><br />Peter

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Posted By: <b>Steve Dawson</b><p>I would love it....I might actually be able to get a Plank and Wagner <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!<br /><br /><br /><br />Steve

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Posted By: <b>Kevin</b><p>How about a more realistic scenario?<br /><br />Let’s say that any T206 card could be forged. <br /><br />As in counterfeit money, printing has never been the big problem...it’s the paper. IMO with some effort printing a T206 could possible be duplicated. If they could do it 100 years ago it doesn’t seem like it would be much of a problem with modern technology. Getting the exact paper with the proper cuts would be the only set back. <br /><br />What if the paper with cuts could be made and the printing somewhat perfected to the point it would be difficult to make an accurate assessment as to which is real and which is fake?<br /><br />Kevin <br />

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Posted By: <b>dennis</b><p>it would be great,just like the 70's, i would love it!

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Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Guys, <br /><br />Here's the point I was trying to make, most of you would either stop collecting or hope that the market turned around. This is the point I was hoping to make.<br /><br />Right now we collect T-206's because it's fun and the market is trending upwards. I'll be frank, it's more fun when the cards are increasing in value faster than my 401(k). And although I would still love baseball, it would be a lot less fun if the market continously trended downwards. It would come to the point where I just went to games and stop collecting. Or at least I would wait until the market started rebounding.<br /><br />Peter

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Posted By: <b>Dave</b><p>Saying it would be less fun and you'd possibly stop collecting....well, aren't the modern cards you collect not going up in value the same as pre-war cards are now?

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Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Well if the prewar stuff dropped then the modern card market would probably follow. I would stop collecting both.<br /><br />Peter

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Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>Kevin's post? Be afraid, be very afraid.

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Posted By: <b>Dave Hornish</b><p>I would buy Buy BUY! Especially pre WW1 stuff. Everything is cyclical so a downturn would mean more buying opportunties just like with the stock market.

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Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Kevin, Steve<br /><br />Well, isn't that what the grading companies are suppose to protect us against. Their the ones that detect counterfeiting and protect the hobby against the unscruplous.<br /><br />Peter

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Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>I think Kevin's scenario suggests that maybe the fakes would be so good that even the grading companys could not detect them. <br /><br />Remember too that this "scenario" is coming from someone who knows of what he speaks.<br /><br />Be afraid, be very afraid.

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Posted By: <b>Mark L</b><p>If the bottom fell out because people stopped wanting the cards, I would buy up as much as I could because I think they're really great. I would regret the money I spent on them when the price was high but would console myself with the money I saved in not completing all those early sets. But if someday we found a glut of pre-war cards, I suppose I would feel less urgency to pick them up. If you want a realistic scenario, how about the following? The other day a member allowed that he owned 60,000 pre-1920 baseball cards. What if he and ten others with similar collectors decided to sell everything they had. Let's say a million pre-war cards hit ebay on the next dump day. and another million or two turned up the next week. After the collapse, I would pick up a few of the Wagner and Cobbs that I still want, finish some sets, and turn to other pastimes.

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Posted By: <b>john/z28jd</b><p> Peter, I think the collectors would still collect especially if the prices went real low,then they would be bidding against themselves and depending on how much extra money they had it might drive the price right back up. Its hard to imagine with baseball cards that they would drop like coins or stamps or art could because baseball players have stats and teams behind them.<br /><br /> Whos going to sell their collections when the prices have bottomed out anyway? Would you rather have a few dollars or the cards you collected? Even if youre an investor,you wouldnt sell low,you would buy low and sell high so i could see investors as well as collectors keeping the t206 market from ever dropping out. You would need the market to get flooded then and with cards that havent been printed in almost 100 years now,thats just not going to happen out of the blue

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Posted By: <b>john/z28jd</b><p> Hey Steve,lets assume the cards are so good that even collectors and experts cant tell the difference, then whos going to know? How would you know theyre actually fake and if they are wouldnt that just affect high grade cards? You can always tell when a new card has been artifically aged so mid and low grade cards wouldnt suffer....and thats assuming that this person making these undetectable cards would settle for lower prices of mid grade cards which they would have absolutely no reason to do when no one can tell the high grade cards are fake

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Posted By: <b>Kevin</b><p>"Their the ones that detect counterfeiting and protect the hobby against the unscruplous."<br /><br />They are the ones that try their best...and do a good job. As proven, an advanced card doctor can get almost anything by. If it can't get by then I'm sure almost anything can be completly created. <br /><br />BTW...in addition forging the T206 card, throw in a reprinted flip and clean slab too <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>.<br /><br />In our hobby just when you think something is not possible you realize anything is possible.<br /><br />Enjoy!<br /><br />Kevin Saucier<br />

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Posted By: <b>Kevin</b><p>"You can always tell when a new card has been artifically aged"<br /><br />Ah, but can you tell when an old card has been made to look newer then artificially aged? I can't and neither can the best graders in most cases.<br /><br />An example: Nazi forged pounds almost ruined the British economy.<br /><br /><br />Kevin Saucier

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Posted By: <b>john/z28jd</b><p> The slabs would have to correspond to numbers that actually exist in the companies system so you would have to do that while not tipping off a person who collects high grade cards and would be your number 1 customer,and could possibly have the exact same card youre trying to sell. If someones going to go thru all of that trouble,wouldnt it just be 100 times easier to just steal a scan,run a bunch of auctions all at once for expensive cards and then once they have the money go into hiding. I cant see a criminal taking this much time to get the printing exactly right,actually go thru with the printing,then having slabs made and looking up all the labels to make sure the grades correspond,then running an auction,or mailing it to an auction house and waiting for their money while the whole time hoping that no one else finds out theyre commiting a federal crime.....or they can just steal a scan

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Posted By: <b>john/z28jd</b><p> In that case Kevin,its still an old card and worth more than the 5 cents a reprint is worth no matter what the condition it was normally in.That isnt a new card on the market and would still affect the high grade guys who care more about the slab number than whats actually in it

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Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Kevin,<br /><br />In order for counterfeiters to spend time counterfeiting there has to be an economic incentive. If the bottom-dropped out of the T-206 market it will no longer worthwhile for them to counterfeit. Actually counterfeiting isn't that easy to do. Like you said you need to purchase the paper get a printing press together. Furthermore, obviously there is also the threat of criminal prosecution. So when the value of T-206s dropped low enough, people would stop counterfeiting.<br /><br />Peter

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Kevin,<br /><br />I owe you a call. I do want to speak with you-- sorry.<br /><br />Don't post anymore Kevin--people will think you are serious.<br /><br />Actually, I would venture to say based on what I know about him that Kevin knows more about card restoration than anyone on this board and possibly as much as anyone in the hobby(including the grading companies).<br /><br />And it is very scary--which may explain why I have not called you yet Kevin.<br /><br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>You all say that you will buy up everything and keep collecting, but this just is true. For those of use that have been around long enough, we know it's not true. All you have to do is look at the recession of the early 80s and market in the early 90s. People were bailing out left and right, including supposed "true" collectors. When prices of something valuable start to drop, people panic and start selling to try and get as much value before the market totally bottoms out.<br /><br />What you think you will do and what you actually will do are in all likelyhood, two very different things, as history has proven.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>John,<br /><br />Actually, I had a client that did that to all their creditors. My client was a distributor of computers and computer related equipment and making lots of bucks. They paid me a monthly retainer of $2,000 every month in a timely manner. As a matter of fact they would pay me faster than any of my other clients.<br /><br />One time I happened to run across their banking records and I realized that they had a line of credit that allowed them to purchase over 10 million from various manufacturers. <br /><br />The interesting thing was I also ran across their accounting records and I found out that even though it appeared that they were doing well, in reality they were just breaking even. Well one day they simply purchased over 10 million worth of computers and computer-related products from various manufactuer's and simply packed their bags and left their warehouse headquarters. Of course, they didn't pay their retainer that month and I couldn't locate them.<br /><br />The rumor was they had taken all the computers and computer-related equipment and took off for Latin America. At the time there was a thriving grey market in the U.S. and in Japan for computer products. The grey market is like the black market where employees and others stole computer equipment and chips from their employers and sold the equipment and chips at a discount to buyers.<br /><br />The rumor went further and speculated that my clients had gotten cheap warehouse space in Latin America and was selling the computers and the equipment on the grey market at a discount.<br /><br />Although I was contacted by the FBI about the situation, it was obvious I didn't know anything. It's been years now, and there has been no follow-up by the FBI.<br /><br />Peter<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>john/z28jd</b><p> Well Jay when people bailed out that means someone was there to buy them because you cant sell stuff if you have no buyers. Those people who bought then would probably realize that they could do the same thing,hold on to the cards and make money in the future.People who are trying to put together a set as collectors will see their chance to finish the set cheap. I dont collect t206s anymore but if someone told me i can get a ton of vg commons for $5 each im jumping all over it,i dont care what you say

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Posted By: <b>Judge Dred (Fred)</b><p>This thread of hypotheticals is fun... would I like to see the bottom fall out of the card market, SURE, then I could pick up material reasonably and the material I paid dearly for would be damned but it'd still be mine.<br /><br />High quality counterfeits would probably be detectable through some type of testing. This would only lead to higher prices in having cards slabbed. There'd be two slabs - the first being the cards slabbed before "greater detection" and the cards slabbed with the "greater detection". I think John's right, it's fairly easy to tell if a low-mid grade card has been altered. Those cards would probably be safe. The unfortunate grouping of cards would probably be the high grade cards. Just my opinions.<br /><br />Seriously, like I've always said, I could care less if this cardboard turned out to be worth only a few dollars a pound because I'd pick it up cheap and it would make the hobby that much more enjoyable. I'm in it for the stats, teams and history of the game not to pad my retirement. After I retired selling off a collection would be difficult, it'd be like trying to figure what child you'd like to sell. I'll leave that up to my family after I'm dead and gone. I would hope that they would keep a couple of the cards for my memory, but if they sold them all and decided to buy a bigger big screen TV with the cards, that's their choice.

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Posted By: <b>Jason L</b><p>I would love it!<br />I am a fan of the game of baseball first<br />I am a baseball card collector second<br />and I am a baseball card "investor" third<br /><br />So, if the market for cards dropped through the floor because the game fell out of favor with the collecting public (which is the only demographic that matters here), then I would be happy as a pig in slop, because there is no reason for the game to stop being MY pasttime, I would still be a collector, and the opportunity would likely turn me into a major "investor."<br /><br />I love collecting the cards, and I enjoy the history they represent. The physical cards would be the same, history wouldn't have changed - just the future value would be in doubt...but with contiually falling prices, that important barrier to entry would be evaporating, hourly, as you say - so, BUY BUY BUY!!!<br /><br />Now, if the market fell apart because of some other macro-factor like a depression, global war, or say, the Cubs winning the Series, well....that's different.<br /><br />One strategy would be to complete all the sets you had your eyes on before the drop...but wouldn't this be fun instead: Focus on one or 2 cards or sets and hoard them so that when the market returns, they cannot be found, except for whaterever price you set!!! How exciting would that be? <br /><br /><br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>Well I'd keep collecting them if their cost plunged. I didn't commence collecting them with a hope that they'd appreciate in value. Their value isn't all that significant to me. And I figure that for those who think it really is about the money, those folks won't be able to understand my thinking.<br /><br />If printing is easy, and it is the paper that is difficult, then why not buy T58 Fish or T60 Flags, bleach them down to nothing, then print on that??? What about a hotknife that separates slabs... Buy a PSA 7, separate the slab, reload it with a decent looking 5 or even a reprinted card, then seal it back up... Wrong. Criminal. But I think some folks that focus on slabbed cards wouldn't notice...<br /><br />I'd keep acquiring the cards if the price bottomed out. The cards I have aren't held as any sort of an investment, no bid deal if prices dove.

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Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>John, yes, there have to be people there to buy the cards that people are unloading, but odds are that most people on this board won't be the ones doing the buying. True, diehard collectors like you, me and others will suck up everything we can, but most people on this board would be unloading their collections if the market bottomed out.<br /><br />I'd be willing to bet that the first major casualties if the market bottomed out would be the set registry freaks. And yes, there are exceptions. Give me a break on that count. There are exceptions to everything, but most of the people heavily involved in the set registries would be bailing fast.<br /><br />Jay <br /><br />I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Jay,<br /><br />The first to bail will be the investors and the modern day collectors. The people that bought the Derek Jeter error cards, those people probably didn't have any idea of how common the card is. These people will bail first.<br /><br />The deepness of the drop really depends on how big of a segment the spur of the moment buyers and the investors are. Also how big of a market are the serious collectors. Look you may buy one Walter Johnson portrait card, but will you buy a hundred. If the answer is no, then the market will continue to plunge.<br /><br />Peter

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I agree with Jay that if the bottom fell out not every vintage card collector would be buying up all the spoils. There would be a really bad vibe in the hobby, and many who saw their collections plummet in value would bail out. In that scenario, if the market were flooded with cards that might still be going down in value, there would be a lot less buying than people think.

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Posted By: <b>George</b><p>I would find out who is responsible for making the forgeries, and I would kill him.

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Posted By: <b>Mark Lutz</b><p>Didn't something like a crash take place in the stamp market about 20 years ago? I assume that was caused by a gradual and general loss of interest in the stamp hobby. From what I can tell, there are still stamp collectors out there even if you don't see stamp shows at the local mall anymore. But I understand that very rare stamps still fetch big prices in some auctions. So I would expect a baseball card crash (due to loss of interest) might wash out the majority of collectors but would still leave us with a bunch of people who would compete for a Cobb/ Cobb or a Baltimore News Ruth. Now, if Kevin's scenario unfolds and every card is readily available, then I don't think the baseball card hobby would last very long. It would be as dull as a paradise in which everything is available to everyone all the time. A few people would finish some sets and everyone would eventually move on to something else.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Kevin,<br /><br />I have to ask, it seems like almost all of your posts are geared around some sort of conspiracy/forgery thing why?<br /><br />Do you have some secret knowledge of this, if so why can’t you bring this issue to light? Are you the guy printing them? Will the people who are printing them hunt you and your family down if their operation was made public?<br /><br />I just don’t get it? I mean I understand what your saying, but this applies to most anything. Forgery has been an ugly part of many hobbies, art, manuscripts, currency, memorabilia etc. I know its possible to be done, but unless you or I know who’s doing it and plan to stop them, it all chalks up to another conspiracy theory. <br /><br />Also each time you post and drop these hints I cant help but wonder if the reason you are tad nebulous in your posts is that you have been, or are currently doing this right now?? Perhaps you’re trying to help and that’s cool, but it’s coming across a bit shady the way you’re going about it.<br /><br />Maybe I’m the only one who feels this way? If so my apologies…<br />

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Posted By: <b>Mark L</b><p>One thing is clear: If Kevin were selling forgeries he wouldn't write about forgery.

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Posted By: <b>Kevin</b><p>"people will think you are serious"<br /><br />Jim, I can assume you've been talking with one of our mutual friends lately <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>. If I were serious I would have never posted.<br /><br />My only objective is to make collectors aware that anything is possible and to watch and examine your cards and slabs carefully. I am a collector and card doctor...albeit an honest one. All my work is either with me or in "very trusted hands" and will not enter the hobby.<br /><br />Other posts showing card alterations have been spread out over several different threads. This one camera shot should sum it all up and relieve all doubt that the previous pics were not digitally created (maybe that YouTube post of the guys laughing could be deleted now LOL). <br /><br />Independently alteration A, B or C would be concerning. Put them all together and...well...yikes:<br /><br /><img src="http://i151.photobucket.com/albums/s139/only_child/blanks.jpg"><br /><br />&lt;“If printing is easy, and it is the paper that is difficult, then why not buy T58 Fish or T60 Flags, bleach them down to nothing, then print on that??? What about a hotknife that separates slabs”&gt;<br /><br />The cuts and cardstock for each series of cards is slightly different. Above are a few 206's and (if remember) 205's. Hard to tell without inspecting them again, each are completely blank...front and back. I can also show more modern blanks if wanted and/or put a blank in a slab with a blank flip all assembled.<br /><br />Bringing the stock down to nothing would be sloppy work IMO and be very obvious. I dunno but I think a hotknife would more than likely melt the plastic...just a thought. Besides resealing without a slab machine is very tricky.<br /><br />Enjoy!<br /><br />Kevin Saucier<br /><br /><br />edited - a few spelling errors.<br /> <br />

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Posted By: <b>Dylan</b><p>When talking about counterfeiting remember too that people who counterfeit money are hoping someone just glances at it and takes it. People examine high value cards with loops and experts grade them. This is a whole different scenerio.

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Posted By: <b>Kevin</b><p>&lt;"Perhaps you’re trying to help and that’s cool, but it’s coming across a bit shady the way you’re going about it."&gt;<br />Just trying to help, that's it! With that in mind...how many here now would think twice before buying an expensive error card or printing flaw? <br /><br />Yes, I can see where it would seem shady but then again this is all new to most, so it would seem shady. I'm still waiting for that post stating "So what, you show the stuff but your not telling us how it's done." No how-to questions please.<br /><br />&lt;"One thing is clear: If Kevin were selling forgeries he wouldn't write about forgery."&gt;<br /><br />Bingo!<br /><br />&lt;"People examine high value cards with loops and experts grade them. This is a whole different scenerio."&gt;<br /><br />No difference really, I think we put too much faith in the experts. IMO only a select few are truly experts...and even they should to be trained and updated. Just like the the way Tom Hanks still goes to acting school <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>.<br /><br />Kevin Saucier<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Kevin,<br /><br />Empty slabs don’t concern me, neither do blank slips, I buy cards not holders. You don’t even have to get fancy with hot knives etc, just ask WIWAG….<br /><br />I have also been collecting for sometime I know a fair amount about the cards I collect and what to look for. Could I be fooled, sure we all could given the right fake and level of the counterfeit in question.<br /><br />If you want to make collectors aware, perhaps author and E-book detailing the things to look for, show some of the basic tell tale signs of doctored cards, just a thought. This doesn’t have to be a how to guide to doctoring cards, just a how to spot armature work etc. <br /><br />If you can’t do this and all you can show are the above pics, you’ve really added nothing more than the baseball card equivalent of the “Grassy Knoll” IMO.<br /><br />If I’m being totally honest with you Kevin, photos of cracked slabs don’t upset or concern me, its statements like the one below that do give me reason for concern. Not questioning your integrity Kevin, just being honest.<br /><br />“I am a collector and card doctor...albeit an honest one. All my work is either with me or in "very trusted hands" and will not enter the hobby.”<br />

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>To answer your question Peter, let the bottom drop out. I was collecting these long before I knew of any financial gain, and I will collect long after the so-called bottom fell out of them. I remember the days you could count on one hand the cards that could pull 5 figures; LOL and if you had more than 2 cards in your collection worth more than 4 figures you were a collecting god. <br /><br />In fact if it did, we wouldn’t be having half of the discussions we have on here if it were more about cards, and less about money.<br />

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Posted By: <b>Kevin</b><p>&lt;"If you want to make collectors aware, perhaps author and E-book detailing the things to look for, show some of the basic tell tale signs of doctored cards, just a thought. This doesn’t have to be a how to guide to doctoring cards, just a how to spot armature work etc."&gt;<br /><br />The book is about 3/4 completed...although not an e-book <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>. IMO to write a book one must first establish trust, knowledge and respect amongst peers and experts.<br /><br />This was a start: <br /><br /><a href="http://www.psacard.com/set%5Fregistry/display_rsets.chtml?setid=226&set_name=1991%20Topp s%20Desert%20Shield" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.psacard.com/set%5Fregistry/display_rsets.chtml?setid=226&set_name=1991%20Topp s%20Desert%20Shield</a>

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>If the bottom fell out of the market- and I don't think that will happen- somebody will of course be buying baseball cards because they will all still have some determined value. But the pool of buyers will be a lot smaller.<br /><br />Regarding the drop in the stamp hobby, I was not active twenty years ago; but one main difference in stamp collecting is it is not drawing in a new generation of collectors, and the older ones are leaving us. There are enough serious collectors today though that will pay a big premium for high quality rare issues. The more plentiful ones, however, can be had for a song.

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Posted By: <b>Bill</b><p>"One thing is clear: If Kevin were selling forgeries he wouldn't write about forgery"<br />-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Not true. Not talking about you in particular Kevin, just speaking in generalities. Criminals are caught for one main reason, they talk about the crime they've taken part in. It's in a criminal mindset, they talk about what they've done or plan on doing. One outrageous example, Ted Bundy once wrote a pamphlet for women on precautions to take in order to avoid being in a situation where they may be sexually assaulted. There is a long laundry list of people who talk about what they do. It's a common thing done that the perpetrator thinks draws attention away from him/her, when in actuality does the opposite.<br />Again, not accusing you of anything Kevin, just speaking in generalities.<br><br>Change your socks, drink water, and drive on.

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Posted By: <b>Brett</b><p>So many people just buy pre war cards and sell them just to make a buck, so I doubt very many people would buy them if t206 Cobbs were worth $10 in poor shape and commons worth $1. I just buy cards of players I like, or of cards that I like from certain sets. The value of them doesn't matter because I hardly ever sell any cards.

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Posted By: <b>Mark L</b><p>Bill,<br />I think that forgers are a special breed and that they are very unlikely to call attention to a crime the very existence of which they wish to conceal. I agree, however, that Kevin is not comparable to Ted Bundy. The picture I'm getting of him is more like that of Dr. Moreau.<br /><br /> <br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>1. If the bottom dropped out on vintage cards I'd buy like hell (assuming the bottom didn't drop out on everything else along with vintage cards, and I could still afford it). I would have all 4 T206 Cobbs, along with portraits of Johnson, Matty and Cy. I may never be able to afford those now, and would love to see and own them. I'd grab an E95 Cobb that right now is still out of reach, along with a T227. I really think I'd still be buying - I love the way these cards look, and don't think value plays that big a role in the fundamental decision to collect - although it may have a part in each indivdual card buying decision.<br /><br />2. If the bottom dropped out because the market was flooded with undetectable counterfeits I would stop buying the sets affected. One of the things I like about vintage cards is the very idea that they are so old. If I didn't know they were old, they would lose a lot of appeal to me.<br /><br />3. Sorry Kevin - I'm with John Wonkaticket on this one. I don't doubt you are very knowledgable, and I take Jim C's endorsement of your expertise seriously. However, to be honest it's just really hard for me to get all worried about very vague warnings and indefinite descriptions of a vintage doomsday. Maybe because the posts are so vague, they tend to fade into the noise of all of the other theories of the unsound footing of vintage cards (eg - XXX% of all cards in PSA Y holders are trimmed). That sort of thing. At some point you just tune it out, unless it's something like Ryan Christoff's posts about the Cuban Polar cards. In that case, there was enough clear detail, along with Mike's somewhat contrary findings when he had his physically analyzed, for collectors to make informed decisions. Just my opinion.<br /><br />Joann

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Posted By: <b>Bill</b><p>Well, being somebody who has partaken in the field, this type of behavior is not limited to certain types of crimes. And Ted Bundy was just an easy example for me to use as many people know his story.<br><br>Change your socks, drink water, and drive on.

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Posted By: <b>john/z28jd</b><p> Barry I still think the players on the card is what makes them valuable because they have teams theyre associated with and records of what they did.You cant compare stamps to that because their value is based on condition and rarity as opposed to the player. Otherwise every t206 card would be valued the same as long as they were just as easy to find.It would make Cobbs the same price as Bill Bergen.The ones that stand out would be cards like Demmitt and O'Hara who are relative nobodies but hard to find,they can be associated with rare stamps and probably retain a good deal of their value despite the drop.<br /><br /> Im actually hoping for a huge drop in the Old Judge market, I might lose value in what i have already but ill be adding cards as fast as i make money when it does happen.If someone asked me if id rather have 200 OJ common cards worth $20,000 or 1000 of them in the same shape worth $10,000 id be making room for 800 more cards

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>posted twice, odd.

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Posted By: <b>Max Weder</b><p>Someone must be forging your posts wonka <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Kevin--they don't get it--<br /><br />Of course I know you are legit. <br /><br />What was the quote by one of our mutual friends--if people knew what you know and it got in the wrong hands it could bring down the hobby as we know it today--something like that.<br /><br />What is funny to me is when collectors on this board lecture others to know their cards and they "know" when cards have been altered or not.<br /><br />As Kevin could tell you, the best doctors can fool the best graders--certainly Kevin could--but he has not gone over to the dark side.<br /><br />Kevin will say this I know --as he has said it to me-- but PSA and SGC need to hire a card doctor to show graders what they are doing to the cards.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Kevin- while I do believe you understand the extent of forgeries and the type of restoration being done, I've got to go with the crowd and say that that is the only thing you ever talk about. You have never offered one positive thing about the hobby, but just kind of wait for your opportunity to fill us all with gloom and doom. Perhaps some more balanced posting would add some credibility to what you have to say.

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Posted By: <b>Darren</b><p>I also collect rocks, insects, and leaves.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>“Kevin--they don't get it—“<br /><br />Not sure what I’m suppose to get? Kevin really hasn’t posted anything other than nebulous posts, eluding to some mysterious stuff going on. What am I supposed to draw from these kinds of posts Jim???<br /><br />People post all over the Internet that we are visited by aliens every day Jim, without proof of some sort I’m not going to start looking for little green men…<br /><br /><br />“What was the quote by one of our mutual friends--if people knew what you know and it got in the wrong hands it could bring down the hobby as we know it today--something like that.”<br /><br />Enough with the secret squirrel crap already, do you have something to add to better the hobby/protect us or not? The question applies to both of you? If you don’t then all you have is conspiracy theory’s..<br /><br />Who really killed JFK?<br />Did Hitler live after the war?<br />Alien Autopsy’s in Roswell NM?<br /><br />And now…..<br /><br />The ”Of course I know you are legit.” Theory…yawn.<br />

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Posted By: <b>Max Weder</b><p>Wonka<br /><br />How can you dispute the alien theory and Roswell, New Mexico? Here is proof....one of 74 home runs --- without steroids! <br /><br /><img src="http://www.baseballreliquary.org/images/Bauman.jpg"><br /><br /><br />m

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I can't be fooled by a forgery. Or a trim job. And I too am legit - in fact, too legit to quit collecting high grade vintage cards. But I am scared. Very scared. Hold me.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p><img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/bauman2.jpg"><br /><br />Not sure I’m convinced Max, look closely at the photo under hi-res analysis it seems to be a little green man there, and his hands seem to be calling the shot to boot!<br /><br />Explain that, this whole thing may go deeper than we thought!!<br />

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Posted By: <b>Max Weder</b><p>John<br /><br />I think you're seeing things....<br /><br /><img src="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/176/425980248_79154f08e1_o.jpg">

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Posted By: <b>Kevin</b><p>"Enough with the secret squirrel crap already, do you have something to add to better the hobby/protect us or not? The question applies to both of you? If you don’t then all you have is conspiracy theory’s.."<br /><br /><br /><br />Aggressive and somewhat insulting, yet not surprising at all. Matter of fact it was expected...what took you? Would it be preferred that these subjects be avoided?<br /><br />Your answer in the form of a question; Would you now, knowing what you've seen, buy a ghost, blank back or other error card without at least considering the possibility it might be altered?<br /><br />It's not all doom and gloom. It's more like "be careful" and "watch out" because the area of alterations is not just about cards being trimmed and recolored.<br /><br />Kevin Saucier<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Kevin, no one was insulting you. The board just expects some specificity instead of innuendo. That's not asking a lot.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Kevin- I'm sure it is possible for many altered cards to go undetected, but you make it seem like nearly every card out there is tampered with. Collectors might as well just throw in the towel. Frankly, I don't think it's true. Do you see anything good in the hobby? And please don't say I don't want to face the truth, or something to that effect. That is not a defense of an argument.

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Kevin,<br /><br />You are right--it is to be expected. Thats the kind of treatment you get here by some.<br /><br />If you have serious topics concerning restoration you are better off just talking about them on LTS although as a members only board you don't get the wider audience.

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Some people are just ahead of their time and simply cannot be understood by mere mortals. I think Brian Wilson wrote about it on Pet Sounds, "I Just Wasn't Made For These Times." Dan? Oh Dan?

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Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>Actually, if Kevin has serious topics regarding restoration he will get a great reception if he posts them here, not on some members-only board. <br /><br />He has shown some interesting before-n-after scans, but really has only accompanied them with generic warnings. I'd love to see this kind of post with a step by step explanation of what was done (not in detail as to turn it into a tutorial on card doctoring). I'd also really like to hear him ring in on some of these misprints that show up on ebay or even here, and let people know if he thinks they are natural misprints or doctored, and why. Right now all we really have is some interesting scans accompanied by "now do you dare buy?" kinds of commentary.<br /><br />By all means post serious restoration topics here. <br /><br />Joann

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Joann,<br /><br />From everything I know, he is as knowledgeable as anyone about restoration and perhaps even more so.<br /><br />Kevin, if you are still paying attention that is what happens on Net54. You bring up a serious topic--get ridiculed--and then someone calls on u-tube and posters talk about music.<br /><br />At least you said you were not surprised by it so you were warned over the treatment you would get here.<br /><br />I do plan on calling you--<br /><br />Jim<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>I don't have the slightest doubt about his knowledge. Not one bit. I'm just wishing he would share it in a slightly different, maybe more targeted, way.<br /><br />Joann

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Joann,<br /><br />Par for the course--a real expert has something highly value added to say--despite being "warned" that this would happen, he feels insulted by the ridiculous comments of a couple of posters.

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Posted By: <b>Jason L</b><p>I'm starting to hope for a meltdown of confidence, a massive Ebay failure, and the collapse of one or two grading companies. Maybe collectors will be forced to meet at more frequent shows...<br /><br />Look, the only reason this crappy topic keeps coming up is because collectors who can afford to keep paying up for the rare, high-end stuff are becoming increasingly paranoid about the integrity of their product. As long as the prices stay high, the incentive to forge product is there, and the paranoia is justified. Learn your product better than anyone, stick with your tight trusted circles, and then stop worrying so much. The doomsday what-ifs have become absolutely intolerable. You people are going to kill yourselves with worry at this rate.<br /><br />Peter, if the market falls, the people who care about the value will sell out and walk away...that's really all there is to it

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Jason, bingo! Fear is quite the motivator. <br /><br />Somehow I suspect Kevin has thicker skin than perhaps some of the more delicate people who post on the board. I mean it would be almost physiologically impossibble for him not to have thicker skin.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- Kevin is not being ridiculed by anybody. Some are asking him for more specific information, some are questioning why he continues to post the same thing every time, and I have asked him if he sees positive things in the hobby, too.<br /><br />If you feel he is correct that such a large percentage of cards are altered, then you must feel this impacts your own collection.

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>I love it ---learn your product--ha ha--I suspect Kevin could put 10ncards in front of most of you--5 altered, 5 okay and most would have a 50/50 chance of guessing whether it had been altered.<br /><br />Sorry Barry--those of you who try to pin this on the high end collector protecting his investment are overlooking the substantial alteration of mid grade pre war cards. Seriously Barry--you have a lot of mid grade graded cards in your auction--how many do you thing have been altered?

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Posted By: <b>dennis</b><p> "I suspect Kevin could put 10ncards in front of most of you--5 altered, 5 okay and most would have a 50/50 chance of guessing whether it had been altered."<br /> jim would the 10 altered cards be in slabs? it's hard to see when their in the plastic.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Aggressive Kevin, perhaps no more aggressive/ dangerous than this comment. Are you bragging to us, or warning us???<br /><br /><br />“I am a collector and card doctor...albeit an honest one. All my work is either with me or in "very trusted hands" and will not enter the hobby.”<br /><br /><br />Do you have first hand knowledge of the stuff you post about above Kevin or don’t you? Not aggressive just a simple question and if you do and don’t want to share it with us, why post at all?? Seems pointless, to point out things we cant protect ourselves from since the people who have this all-powerful knowledge can and I quote…<br /><br />“They are the ones that try their best...and do a good job. As proven, an advanced card doctor can get almost anything by. If it can't get by then I'm sure almost anything can be completly created. “<br /><br />“Ah, but can you tell when an old card has been made to look newer then artificially aged? I can't and neither can the best graders in most cases.”<br /><br /><br /><br />“Would it be preferred that these subjects be avoided?”<br /><br />No it would be preferred that you actually tell something useful vs. countless innuendo and vague speculation. <br /><br />Kevin, not out to get you but so far you’ve posted some blank case slips and opened PSA slabs. You’ve admitted you’re a card doctor with vast amounts of knowledge and your buddy Jim has eluded that you could use this to you advantage. <br /><br /><br />"What was the quote by one of our mutual friends--if people knew what you know and it got in the wrong hands it could bring down the hobby as we know it today--something like that."<br /><br /><br />You even admit you doctor cards and that these cards will never see the hobby or some unsuspecting schumck’s collection, I am to believe this how??<br /><br />If you’re trying to build creditability to help the hobby, and you have knowledge, which could do so. That’s very admirable, not sure the way you presented yourself so far has helped your cause if in fact that’s your cause at all?<br /><br /><br /><br />"Aggressive and somewhat insulting, yet not surprising at all. Matter of fact it was expected...what took you?"<br /><br />And please the martyr schiidct is a bit played out at this time be careful most of the time there is only enough room on a cross for one, not sure Crandell has room for you up there at this time.<br /><br /><br />So how about it? Are there any artists in the house? I would like to commission the 12 stages of Crandell’s suffering via Net 54 mural at this time, please let me know. <br />

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Posted By: <b>Frank A.</b><p>Kevin's 2005 SMR article about 1991 Desert Shield forgeries is quite impressive.<br /><br />It would be even more impressive if all of the info had not already been published a decade earlier in Beckett.<br /><br />What we have here is a hobby novice playing with bleach and trying to talk a big game.<br /><br />Only a buffoon like Crandall would take this Saucier clown seriously.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>“Sorry Barry--those of you who try to pin this on the high end collector protecting his investment are overlooking the substantial alteration of mid grade pre war cards. Seriously Barry--you have a lot of mid grade graded cards in your auction--how many do you thing have been altered?”<br /><br />Jim, are you implying Barry has altered cards at auction right now?? Sounds like a hint. Any proof of this or is this? Or is this another Crandell red herring??<br /><br /><br />But seriously I love you Crandell, nobody makes me laugh harder. Even Grigori Efimovich Rasputin didn’t take himself as seriously as you take yourself. <br /><br />And Jim relax Rasputin is a historical figure and is long been dead; he didn’t trim any of your cards or my entire armpit collector mid grade ones either…or did he……..<br />

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Posted By: <b>Adam Smith</b><p>"What we have here is a hobby novice playing with bleach and trying to talk a big game.<br /><br />Only a buffoon like Crandall would take this Saucier clown seriously."<br /><br /><br />Right on both accounts. Kevin has not shown us a thing. Everyone wants to be a big shot.

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Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>John, you wrote: "Kevin, not out to get you but so far you’ve posted some blank case slips and opened PSA slabs."<br /><br />Have you read the other threads that Kevin posted in? I've met and talked to Kevin several times in person, and he has shown me some issues with cards that have been eye-popping. Its tough for me to separate what he told me versus what he wrote on N54, but if I recall correctly, he did post some other stuff in other threads that you and others may find interest in. Maybe those other posts aren't enough for you either...I'm just saying your statement "so far you've posted some blank case slips and opened PSA slabs" is not true for his N54 posts as a whole.

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Prizner</b><p>"What we have here is a hobby novice playing with bleach and trying to talk a big game.<br /><br />Only a buffoon like Crandall would take this Saucier clown seriously."<br /><br /><br />Not true, Kevin knows alterations. Like King said, check out some of the other posts.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.network54.com/Forum/153652/message/1172121989/last-1172686539/Ghost+cards" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.network54.com/Forum/153652/message/1172121989/last-1172686539/Ghost+cards</a><br /><a href="http://www.network54.com/Forum/153652/message/1172653652/last-1172686539/even+more" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.network54.com/Forum/153652/message/1172653652/last-1172686539/even+more</a>...

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Cmoking if your going to quote me please quote me correctly please…<br /><br />“Kevin, not out to get you but so far you’ve posted some blank case slips and opened PSA slabs. You’ve admitted you’re a card doctor with vast amounts of knowledge and your buddy Jim has eluded that you could use this to you advantage.”<br /><br />I stand by that quote; I also saw the other posts with pictured cards with various jobs etc. Perhaps I’m wrong but Kevin never really goes into to detail on any of the posts I have read, if anything he posts and leaves it open to speculation. <br /><br />What’s the point of it all? To make us all paranoid or educate us?? I’m not questioning his ability as card doctor or knowing methods of card alteration. I’m merely questioning the point of all this brining things half to light with broad statements and images. Is this going somewhere or not? If you cant tell us what to look for and we cant tell for ourselves due to the quality of your work and others as stated below by Kevin himself, then what the hell is the point and where is he heading with this? I think those are fair questions???<br /><br />“They are the ones that try their best...and do a good job. As proven, an advanced card doctor can get almost anything by. If it can't get by then I'm sure almost anything can be completely created. “<br /><br />“Ah, but can you tell when an old card has been made to look newer then artificially aged? I can't and neither can the best graders in most cases.”<br /><br />Right now Kevin is not coming off as an educated hobby defender but more like a guy on a street corner with a billboard that says “The End is near!!”<br /><br />Also the only scary thing so far that Kevin has brought to light are comments he’s made about his own skill, openly admitting he’s a card doctor who could fool us all. I’m the only one who finds that odd, that someone would brag so openly about this???<br /><br /><br />“I am a collector and card doctor...albeit an honest one. All my work is either with me or in "very trusted hands" and will not enter the hobby.”<br /><br /><br />“If I was unleashing fraud (knew someone to say it...thank you), I wouldn't post about it and am quite sure no one would ever know. Enjoy your card as it is, a mystery to all!”<br /><br /><br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>I don't think I made a mistake. I quoted the relevant portion.

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Posted By: <b>George Dreher</b><p>&lt;I also collect rocks, insects, and leaves.<br /><br />My wife said there was a mental patient that had a booger collection on their wall and it wasn't framed.<br />

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Posted By: <b>Kevin</b><p>"Kevin- I'm sure it is possible for many altered cards to go undetected, but you make it seem like nearly every card out there is tampered with. Collectors might as well just throw in the towel. Frankly, I don't think it's true."<br />_____________<br /><br />I am a collector first and deep commitment the hobby. Most cards are not altered and reside in the correct holders if graded. Based on experience I estimate about 15% in slabs have been altered. Don't throw in the towel but do have a general idea what your getting for your buck. The end is not near but the subject is as important as any other. <br /><br />Many have a specific specialty; mine just happens to be identifying alterations and is what I can offer the hobby and (maybe) this forum. Before and after pics are appropriate for the alterations I've been showing. Details and more targeted step by step explanations could only hurt the hobby in an open forum...sorry. Not bragging at all, "awareness" is what I am offering at this time.<br /><br />As for Jim, I've only met him briefly once. Sure, we will talk soon in detail but at least his comments on this subject are accepted for what they are. Not saying I'm a card doctor regardless of the reason, would be hypocritical, it's the unfortunate part of getting to know the subject at hand. It would be like WonkaTicket stating he's is not confrontational <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>.<br /><br />____________<br /><br />"Kevin's 2005 SMR article about 1991 Desert Shield forgeries is quite impressive. It would be even more impressive if all of the info had not already been published a decade earlier in Beckett. What we have here is a hobby novice playing with bleach and trying to talk a big game. Only a buffoon like Crandall would take this Saucier clown seriously."<br /><br />Frank Alston, that entire post was simply uncalled for. I'm embarrassed for you and feel it's a shame you find the need to express those horrid comments in writing. Adam Smith you are not far behind. I'm no big shot and don't plan on being one. Both of you are obviously the bigger men...literally.<br /><br />That SMR article was a request by PSA to go beyond what had been written in Beckett and reintroduce the subject to new collectors. Both are different. Dare I say I've written several others? Please show us what either of you have written so that we may all enjoy the benefits of your educational topics. I'm certain we will not be disappointed.<br /> <br />___________<br /><br />"I'd also really like to hear him ring in on some of these misprints that show up on ebay or even here, and let people know if he thinks they are natural misprints or doctored, and why."<br /><br />This is exactly what I can do and would be more than happy to share what little I know.<br /><br />In person, I can go into more detail. Poor King (cmoking) once got a 2-hour class on card trimming.<br /><br />Have a good evening!<br /><br /><br />Kevin Saucier<br />