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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>bruce dorskind</b><p><br /><br />The strength of the market for super high grade pre WW II cards can not be questioned.<br /><br />Even when said cards are auctioned on E Bay they continue to bring prices that<br />ran range between very impressive and simply astounding.<br /><br />The great caution, as we have indicated on numerous occassions is that the<br />market remains relatively thin.<br /><br />Let's look at the results<br /><br />Total number of T 206 PSA 8 cards auctioned on September 13 17<br />Total value of prices realized $90,391<br />Average price realized per lot $ 5,317<br /><br />Note: There were 5 cards with a pop 1 They represented 44% of the total value $ 39.444<br />Averaged price realzied for a "pop 1" $ 7.889<br /><br />Average price realized for the 12 non "pop" 1 psa 8 T206 $4,4245<br /><br />Number of collectors who won 1 or more items 6<br /><br />Three well known "set registry" collectors won 14 of the 17 items<br />Each of these collectors finished second on one item<br />One collector won only 1 lot but finished 2nd 8 times<br /><br />In 13 of the 17 lots, the four major players were both the winner and runner-up<br /><br /><br />We'd be interested to hear your comments regarding this auction and its implications<br />for other high grade pre-war collectors<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>If the market is indeed thin then some of the prices you see may be unreliable as indicators of the state of the market. The deeper the market is and the more people who collect in a particular area, the more reliable the information is.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p> Hi Bruce,<br /> What the EBAY system doesn't show, is the number of snipe bids that were never placed. I bid on 4 of the cards, but my snipe bid of 4500 at 3 sec was already beat by 2 people with bids of more than 9000. It's quite possible that 3-4 people had snipe bids in the 5000-8500 that we will also never see. <br /> The market for super high graded T206's and low pop's maybe be thin, but it's more than 3-4 people, it's probably closer to 15-20. In the last few months I've sold several 8's offline to several different high grade collectors, who did not bid on these cards. Or if they did, there snipes were too low. Be well Brian<br /><br />
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>martindl</b><p><br />My first thought in watching the cards go one by one was "sheer registry madness". These are some great condition cards and I think I understand why some people find appeal in the registry, but I question the sanity of the differential in prices attained (value?) based largely on the population reports.<br /><br />For the high grade pre-war collector I think the impications will be severe the minute a matching grade card comes to the market and that Pop 1 suddenly becomes a 1-of-2. You can never be assurred of having that highest graded card, so why pay such a premium for the current highest?<br /><br /><br /><br />
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>The highest grade lowest pop cards have the best shot at achieving record setting prices but also exhibit the greatest volatility. The same card in VG-EX will trade at a fairly consistent level and there will never be a shortage of buyers. I'm not saying there is a shortage of high end buyers, just that there is a greater likelihood of price swings.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>How come the Dorkskin group didn't win any of these cards if they are such great cards to own? You spent money on a pedestrian Double Play card, but won't pony up for t206s?<br /><br />To quote an old movie line, "Show me the money" cuz we certainly don't see you spending it on anything more impresive than Double Play cards. <br /><br />Jay<br><br>I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>joe brennan</b><p>If these 4 or 5 collectors obtain all the cards that they need to fill their sets the real price of these cards will be realized by the people that under bid at $4-5K. I think the prices are inflated by a select few. JMO<br><br>People said it was a million dollar wound. But the government must keep that money, cause I ain't never seen a penny of it.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>peter ullman</b><p>while I agree with most opinions thus far...since the hobby is everexpanding and growing...despite the fact that a select few registry types are certainly driving prices into the stratosphere...this sect of the hobby should be growing to a degree as well...just like the rest of the hobby. so...yes...the prices are ridiculous...and volatile...but shouldn't they remain relatively stable. just playing devils advocate. <br /><br />pete ullman
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>stay the hell out of boxing cards! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Although I would like to (and do) believe that the market for Vintage, pre-War cards is hot, the utter madness of the PSA 8's and 9's is not an accurate representation, overall. <br /><br />Only a handful of people collect these cards (or can afford them) and are clearly in a league of their own. Similar to other statistical analyses, the high figure(s) and low figure(s) are omitted in determining a true picture.<br /><br />So...As encouraging (and discouragining, as I simply can't afford these cards) as this trend is, I don't think the orgy over multi-thousand dollar cards is (necessarily) representative of pre-War issues in general.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>I wonder if the same bidders were bidding on the high grade E93 Group in mastro?
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Cobby made a good point, and that is it is as if the people buying these cards are transacting as members of a completely different hobby. There is no intersection between what they purchase and what the typical collector buys.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>Based on the data you presented, Bruce, a pop 1 PSA8 t206 purchase puts less than half of the purchase price at risk.<br /><br />To evaluate this risk vs. a potential reward, we would have to be able to estimate the potential reward. Although this can not be forcasted accurately, Id estimate that reward (if the cards remain 1 of 1s) as 2x the purchase price.<br /><br />As Jay points out, based on your option to not bid, you clearly are seeking a better situation, or you disagree with my analysis.<br /><br />Please explain your assessment.<br /><br /><br />Edited to add:<br /><br />Useful information which I do not have includes - % t206 population currently graded above PSA8.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Dan Kravitz</b><p>That was not necessary. Let's have a little respect for fellow collectors who post on this board. Every person on this board has a different style that should be respected. It would suck if we all collected the same thing. Come on!
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>What'd I miss??? See what happens when I step out for a moment!
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>Damn, what did I miss? Leon, shoot me a copy if it still exists. I need some good humor after a bad night of bowling.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Whomever "lentel" is made a sharp jab at a board member and did it anonymously. Remember, if you want to jab, you better put your real name by it, or be well known by your net54 handle. Personal attacks should, for the most part, be kept off the board. We all know there have been heated arguments before but not anonymously..Each situation is considered when enforcing rules....as every situation is different...The rules are there for a reason...It's actually been fairly tame lately, which is good by me......kind regards
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Thanks Bruce,<br /><br />There is no better investment than high grade vintage cards--the results of this seem to fly in the face of the assertion by some that high grade T206's are trimmed--or at least it shows that high-end collectors do not care if they are(unlikely). This represents another leg up for T206 high-grade prices.<br /><br />I will consider any offers for my T206s(150 or so PSA 8s) on the PSA Set Registry that are in line with these prices.<br /><br />Wonderful example of the economic benefits of grading cards.<br /><br />Jim
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p><b>--the results of this seem to fly in the face of the assertion by some that high grade T206's are trimmed--or at least it shows that high-end collectors do not care if they are(unlikely). </b><br /><br />Jim, go ahead and keep your head buried in the sand. Just don't come crying to us or anyone else if the collecting world finally wises up and quits bidding on the obviously trimmed cards that reside in PSA holders. There are far to many knowledgable people on this board that know there trimmed cards in PSA 8 and higher holders to just dismiss these claims out of hand. Then again, you are the perfect example of buying the flip and not the card.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>OK, you guys are starting to convince me. If the Spade (link to ebay auction in post above) turned up on ebay raw, with a seller I didn't know, I don't think I'd bid $15 on it. Really. That slanted top border would put me off it in two seconds. <br /><br />I obviously can't say whether it is trimmed or not - I have no idea. But I know I wouldn't give it a second look raw. Hmmm. Maybe I should be rethinking that if they sell for $2K+ in a PSA 8 slab.<br /><br />Joann
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>ItsStillOnlyGil</b><p>Certainly you realize that if you are unresponsive, that is what your inquirys will yield. To reiterate:<br /><br />To evaluate this risk vs. a potential reward, we would have to be able to estimate the potential reward. Although this can not be forcasted accurately, Id estimate that reward (if the cards remain 1 of 1s) as 2x the purchase price.<br /><br />Please identify your analysis.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Let's see...Perfectly-straight borders and 70/30 vertical centering???
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Greg Ecklund</b><p>Jim,<br />If "there is no better investment than high grade vintage cards", why would you consider offers for you PSA 8 T206's that are in line with current prices? Why not hang onto them if, as you say, there is no better investment?
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Bruce Babcock</b><p>My 2 cents worth:<br /><br />*If I bought cards with consideration to risk-reward ratios I wouldn't be able to sleep at night. Cards to me are a hobby and one of the purposes of a hobby is to divert our attention from what keeps us awake at night! <br /><br />*It is ironic that the prices some graded cards bring have created an incentive to trim cards and hope that they grade high when one stated purpose of the grading services was to protect the buyer from trimmed cards.<br /><br />*The average price Bruce cites, $5317, is eye-popping. If I were to spend that much on a single card it wouldn't be a T206 common. No offense to those who do. These T206s are very rare in PSA 8 condition, but the cards themselves, condition aside, are not particularly rare. To put such a premium on what amounts to sharp corners, for my budget, would mean that I would have a very small collection.<br /><br />*I try to keep it simple. I buy cards that I like. I bought some cards at the National which I had never seen before and might never see again. Did I overpay? Probably. Did I have fun? Yes. Do I enjoy the cards? Yes. Can I sleep at night? Yes.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Bruce- as I mentioned earlier on this thread, the way you collect and the way set registry people collect are for all practical purposes two completely different hobbies. You collect in an interesting manner looking for scarce or rare material and to a degree keep an eye on some type of reasonable budget. Set registry people have an awful lot of money and it is important for them to say they own the best. Whether it is an investment issue or simply a way of proving self worth, it's tough to say. But it's two different philosophies altogether. The only thing that connects them is the pursuit of something baseball.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Amen, brother.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>Set registry people are a very big population - perhaps more than a thousand people have sets registered at PSA. A very very very very very small percentage of those are involved in paying 5K+ for a PSA 8 T206 common. Perhaps only 5 people. Those 5 people are not typical of all set registry people - they are their own subset to themselves.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Bruce Babcock</b><p>Another good point. I have one set registered, almost by accident. I have ten Tango Eggs which were already PSA graded when I bought them individually so I went ahead and joined the registry. Ten cards is only half the set but this was enough to put me at number two. I haven't added a card in nine years.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>There are many ways to look at this phenomenon, and let me posit one: If I am not mistaken, one of the PSA-8 on Bruce's list was Lattimore, and if memory is correct it sold for $7700. I looked at it on ebay and I will not deny that it is a very sharp looking card. Now let's say I too wanted a Lattimore but only had $50 to spend. I could probably get a nice VG-EX that would have no creases and a bit of softness at the four corners. Using this example, it would cost me an extra $7650 to get the same exact card with the corners squared. Call me naive, but gentlemen, you sure aren't getting very much for your money. I know, I know, some collectors will settle for nothing less than best...but other than the fact that there will be some other guy who will probably pay more for it six months down the road because he too won't settle for anything less than the best, are you really getting your money's worth? I won't even go into the fact that Lattimore is among the most boring players in the T206 set.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>residing in SGC "A" holders. Beautiful cards, including a Johnson Pitching, McGraw Finger in Air, Lundgren Chicago and Powers. All appear right, maybe a teeny bit short? Do not appear trimmed. What say I crack them out and submit to PSA and let's see. Anyone want to take bets on results?
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>I may be intersted in gambling. What terms are you looking for?
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>get its initial fee submission package. Will submit 10. Over-under is 4. I'll let you pick. I win, you pay grading fees. You win, I'll buy your book.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>That's it? I thought this was for real money. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> <br /><br />I'll take Under 4 (out of 10 or 11 cards) are graded with a numerical grade. <br /><br />Here's what I want from you:<br />- send me scans of the cards in the SGC Authentic holders<br />- once you have it submitted, give me the PSA submission number and your zip code so I can track along with you on PSA's site<br />- tell me how much your total grading fees + shipping fees are ahead of time<br /><br />my email is cmoking@yahoo.com<br /><br />If more than 4 grade, I'll happily pay for your grading fees.<br /><br />Win or lose, I'd be happy to send you a copy of my book.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>Are the "set registry people" the handful of big names in the hobby with collections worth many millions or the majority of people on the registry with much more humble collections? <br /><br />I think there is a tendancy to draw large conclusions about broad and diverse groups of collectors. More often than not the broad strokes and generalizations do not tend to be accurate when applied to individuals.<br /><br />I have a high-grade E93 set on the registry which I mostly put together before the caramel craze of the past few years. I don't consider myself a "set registry person" but many here may think of me that way by virtue of putting one set on the registry. I did it mostly because it has been a great way to hear from other caramel collectors and to get wind of available cards that would fill holes in my set. The vast majority of my collection is not high grade like that set.<br /><br />JimB
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>and a 4 is a push. I'm going out tonight but will email you the scans tomorrow. Terms acceptable.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>Excellent. This will be fun. I will leave it up to you whether you want the results to be public. I won't say anything either way.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Steve and King- that's a really funny bet you two guys have going. But watch out for King- he's a professional!
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>I can hold my own. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> (jacklitsch a/k/a 2005XKR)
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- I agree that it is not a good policy to stereotype any group, even the set registry crowd, but would it be fair to categorize the people who spend several thousand dollars on each T206 common as very wealthy? Some may be wealthier than others, but can we say all of them have deep pockets?
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Maybe I should lay a bet on who will win your bet. Are there odds on each of you?
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>underdog. 4 to 1 but it will be fun to see. The cards residing in SGC "A"'s don't do much for me anyway.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>You may be an underdog - but you stand to lose nothing! A complete free-roll...great bet for you. So what do I get out of it? Some interesting info for myself. That's worth it for me. Looking forward to it.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>it will be an interesting experiment one way or the other. I'm out of here, wife is screaming at me, so I'll get those scans out tomorrow.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I want in on this action. I say less than four of them come back graded, and I'll wager a vanilla milkshake (that's my standard bet, I never wager more than I can afford).
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>Barry,<br />Sure, somebody who spends thousands of dollars on T206 common has deep pockets. But most people on this board have discretionary income that they spend on cards, whether that be $30/month or $30,000/month. We can judge either by saying that it would be a lot better to give that money to charity. But who are we to judge the taste of different collectors? I would love to have a PSA 8 T206 set. It probably won't happen, but not for lack of desire.<br />JimB
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I just find it fascinating that people are willing to pay multi-thousands of dollars for T206 commons. I just can't fathom why they do it. Doesn't make it wrong, just leaves me baffled.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>No one is saying that every trimmed card submitted to PSA get slabbed with a number. What we are pointing out is that far too many trimmed cards ARE getting slabbed. I don't card what volume of business you are doing, if your business is to detect cards, then none should be getting through. We shouldn't be seeing the large number of questionable cards that we do in high grade PSA holders. <br /><br />And yes, we are aware of size variations in the cards, but don't you find it curious that it's only the short cards that survive in high grade? Take a look at population of t206s in general. There should be a roughly equal number of short and long cards, since cutting a card short means making another card long. Yet if you look at all the t206s out there, oversized t206s are few and far between, yet you see an inordinate number of short cards. A lot this can be traced back to when Jim Copeland started paying huge money for NM t206s. I saw many collectors and dealers running around shows looking for oversized t206s they could trim down and hopefully pass off on Copeland or one of his buyers.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Jay,<br /><br />I think you are the one that's crying--I have no reason to cry--my psa 8s have probably risen 20-fold on average since I bought them.<br /><br />Face it, the trend of the industry is graded cards--my point is if in fact some of the T206s are trimmed and they got in PSA holders(which is undoubtedly true), the market does not seem to care.<br /><br />Educate yourself and adapt.<br /><br />Barry and others,<br /><br />There are a few set registry people who have thrown tremendous amounts of money into high-grade vintage cards. Why not? It has been a tremendous investment. Why not build the worlds greatest set of what many feel is the greatest set ever made? To do that you are going to have to pay $6-$10,000 for pop 1 psa 8 commmons. For someone who is worth what these guys undoubtedly are that is not a big investment.<br /><br />Jim
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Elliot</b><p>I would also point out that if Steve submitted each if those 10 cards 25 times and just once got one PSA 8 he would be ahead of the game financially. I've got to believe that sooner or later, if he kept resubmitting most of his 10 or 11 would get a numerical grade. I'm sure the Spade and Tannehill didn't get an 8 the first time around, but sooner or later.....<br><br>
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>If I worked at PSA and kept seeing the same cards over and over, I'd give them all 1's for posterity's sake and move on with my life. At least they'd get #'s.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>Jim, I'm not crying at all. No idea why you get that idea. I would also be willing to bet that I've got a better return on my money invested into cards than you do. As I pointed out in another post, I have just a little over a $1500 out of pocket expense on my collection. You can go back to that other thread to see some of the highlights of what I have.<br /><br />Here's a challenge for you, take $1500 and five years and see if you can build a collection that can come anywhere to close to mine. For some reason, I really doubt you could, mainly because you lack the knowledge to be able to do so.<br /><br />Jay<br /><br />I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>DJ</b><p>What other collectible in the world, can the very exact item be purchased for $10 or sell for as high as high as $20-30,000?<br /><br />Barry hit my thoughts EXACTLY and I guess it all comes down to being old school:<br /><br />Barry wrote: If I am not mistaken, one of the PSA-8 on Bruce's list was Lattimore, and if memory is correct it sold for $7700. I looked at it on ebay and I will not deny that it is a very sharp looking card. Now let's say I too wanted a Lattimore but only had $50 to spend. I could probably get a nice VG-EX that would have no creases and a bit of softness at the four corners. Using this example, it would cost me an extra $7650 to get the same exact card with the corners squared.<br /><br />I'm baffled as well.<br /><br />Questions about PSA8's.<br /><br />-Is he a player you admire that you want to collect in that high of grade?<br />-Are you planning on putting together a PSA8 set? <br />-Couldn't you just buy a pretty nice VG-VG+ set for around $35,000 and be satisfied? <br />-524 cards versus say 7 or 8 "commons"? <br />-Do you tell people that you have the only T206 PSA8 of _____ in the world at dinner parties?<br />-What if another one shows up in the market place?<br />-What kind of increase do you expect on these cards?<br />-Will that common be worth $6,000 next year and $10,000 the year after that? <br /><br />After all, what did the George Davis PSA8 sell for in Mastro? Something like $4,500? Davis, a Hall Of Famer, but because of the silly population he sells for less than a "common"? Makes sense to me.<br /><br />My two cents...this is a fun thread and I look forward to the outcome of the challenge. <br /><br />DJ<br /><br /><br /><br />
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>BcD</b><p>so many pedestrian collectors with not so tough want lists! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>John_B_California</b><p>Here's a T206 SGC 20 Bender that is quite short s/s,<br /><br /><a href="http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-T206-T-206-Chief-Bender-Portrait-HOF-SGC-20-Nice_W0QQitemZ150029366946QQihZ005QQcategoryZ57993 QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-T206-T-206-Chief-Bender-Portrait-HOF-SGC-20-Nice_W0QQitemZ150029366946QQihZ005QQcategoryZ57993 QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem</a><br /><br />And yet some fit exactly,<br /><br /><a href="http://cgi.ebay.com/CHIEF-BENDER-T206-TREES-SWEET-CAPORAL-SGC-GAI-5_W0QQitemZ190031499532QQihZ009QQcategoryZ31718QQr dZ1QQcmdZViewItem" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://cgi.ebay.com/CHIEF-BENDER-T206-TREES-SWEET-CAPORAL-SGC-GAI-5_W0QQitemZ190031499532QQihZ009QQcategoryZ31718QQr dZ1QQcmdZViewItem</a><br /><br />PSA certainly makes mistakes, and no one will get it 100% right all the time. Mastro has made mistakes (witness the Oscar statue fake this year), Lelands, no one is operating at 1,000 percent.<br /><br />If it was as easy as taking an oversized card and trimming it down, I would have expected to see...<br /><br />-More and more cards coming to the marketplace as prices have risen. It would be interesting to see changes in the pop report as prices have gone up. Goudey commons have exploded in value over the past 5-7 years (some up 1,000%+ and yet the numbers aren't even close to satisfying demand).<br /><br />-Previously rare cards becoming easy. George C Millers, T204s, etc. That would make me pause.<br /><br />-Greater discrepancies between the pop numbers of high dollar sets vs low dollar.<br /><br />Consider 1933 Goudey Indian Gum vs '33 Goudey baseball. The Indian Gum set has a higher percentage of 7's, 8's and 9's as a percent of the total cards submitted (.22, .176, .0059 vs .12, .09, .0057).<br /><br />'38 Horror of War vs '38 Goudey (.189, .209, .016 vs .16, .13, .007).<br /><br />Some of the non sport numbers are very high ('35 Mickey Mouse, .33 of all cards submitted are an 8).<br /><br />The comparisons aren't perfect. The high dollar baseball figures are more likely to be inflated by crackouts and resubmissions. Low dollar non sport cards aren't as likely to be submitted (not as much registry demand). But something to consider in this debate...
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I think what this thread has shown us is that there are many different philosophies about how people like to collect. The guy who spends $7700 is likely to be happy with his purchase and the guy who spends $50 for his may be so too. It's really not a matter of who is right and who is wrong. This has and always will be a provocative topic.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />Couldn't agree more.<br /><br />DJ--<br /><br />In response,<br /><br />1)Nobody admires Lattimore--anyone who is paying $6-$10K for a psa 8 common is trying to do the set in 8.<br /><br />2)Unless there are no other examples available,high end collectors do not want off condition cards.<br /><br />3)524 vs 7-8 psa 8 copmmons--certainly not--they want all 524 in psa 8<br /><br />4)There is a lot of competition to want to have the best set in existense and for the popular sets they virtually all exist on the psa set registry.<br /><br />%)High-end collectors of collectibles will always be paying a lot more for quality and that is what is at work here.<br /><br />Jay,<br /><br />Good for you. You said if I came crying about my cards going down in price. Trust me--I will not cry--at least to you,
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- here's a question for you based on your last post: do you think that these set registry people really love the process of collecting, or has it become more of an exercise of outdoing the competition and being able to say "I am the best?" Again, I find the "I have to be the best" philosophy interesting, and that's why I think the topic is provocative. Do they like T206's or do they like feeling one up on everyone else? Not saying you have the answer, just curious to hear your opinion.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Please email me about something......thanks for participating ... I would like to have a chat....best regards
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />I sense it is a combination.<br /><br />1)First, I think these are very competitive people. They are very successful businessmen who probably got where they are in part by being so competitive. Its hard to turn it on and off. I( by no means am I putting myself in the category of collectors who will spend $10K for a T206 PSA 8 common but from time to time I find myself straying from my basic goal of completing sets in PSA 8 and better to getting ahead of a certain collector. The Set Registry will do that to you.<br /><br />2)These people do love the sport and have a real passion for collecting. They are big baseball fans--I know of one guy who just did a fantasy camp that is one of the leading vintage collectors.<br /><br />3)As you know, the trend in America has been the creation of a significant group of people who are extremely wealthy. Whether it is from stock options, Wall Street, the tech boom or just being a successful entrepreneur, there is a pretty good size group of people to whom $10,000 is like $10 to you and me. Some people you just cannot outbid on ebay.<br /><br />4)Lastly, the whole concept of grading cards has validated cards as an investment.10-15 years ago high-end vintage cards were going for a song as collectors had completely lost confidence in whether the cards were altered in some way. While some would argue that altered cards still get through, grading has given wealthy collectors the confidence to step up and put millions into the hobby.<br /><br />Jim
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>Your lawn gets brown spots, your tires go flat, your garage door opener don't open the door, almost eberything in life is imperfect (and deteriorating). However, a PSA8 t206 common is virtually fault free, won't deteriorate and can be yours - maybe the only thing in your pitiful existence with quality and staying power. (I hope your kids are good, but maybe not).<br /><br />And for several grand -- why not have one thing of quality? Not for snoot value, not because only the best will do, just because you can have one thing nearly perfect, or two, or more.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- that was a well thought out response and I agree with everything you said. You would think a lot of these Type A personalities would need an outlet like collecting baseball cards to unwind and relax, but collecting for them is just an extension of their need to be the best at everything. To them, that's a 24/7 job. Everyone is different, I suppose.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>or is it thread?<br /><br />I agree that the high grade set registry folks don't collect the same way as the rest of us but I wouldn't say they are of a different hobby altogether. Many of them take just as much pride and enjoy themselves just as much as I do. <br /><br />One thing I do note is that the folks who do these high grade/high price sets are not the ones touting the "investment" end of things. They realize that they are collecting cards they will likely die with and just don't make a big deal of it. The investment cheerleading seems to be the purview of others. It seems to me that if you have to actively worry about whether you can resell these supposedly fantastic investments, you probably shouldn't be claiming to collect them; what you are really doing is investing in them. And that's a totally different story. I realize I am generalizing but that doesn't make me wrong. Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean people aren't out to get me.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Corey R. Shanus</b><p>Suppose the 8 Lattimore clearly did not look like an 8 (which I'm not saying is the case but just hypothesizing to raise an issue). Do you think the card would have ended up selling for any less or is the set collector mentality completely focused on buying the holder and not the card? Or, to put it another way, while it is all well and good for a well-heeled set collector to want to say he/she owns the best T206 set, would he/she still get the same enjoyment out of that if he/she really felt that a number of the cards are overgraded?
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>Jim, I assume from your nonresponse that you won't be takingme up on my challenge?<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Corey,<br /><br />My experience is that it has some impact in certain situations but if it is a weak 8 and a pop 1 probably no impact.<br /><br />Jim
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>My questions are:<br />1. Why does everybody care so much about what a small percentage of collectors are paying for cards that you, yourself are not interested in?<br />2. Why is there such a moralizing tone to the arguments? I don't see any of the subjects of this debate coming on and questioning why collectors buy lower condition cards.<br /><br />JimB
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I think people like to debate this topic. It goes with the "human ego" sentiment/debate and is very interesting. I think we have also debated why folks collect lower grade cards too. Same thing...just different monies involved. For the record I do think the number on the slab, even if it's really a grade lower by most standards, has a huge impact on the value. That's kind of sad but no sin. Personally I don't collect high grade cards but if that's what folks want to do I will sit back and enjoy the game....It's all good...(and yes, it seems as though some people belittle those that do, at least to me)....best regards
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>I'm sure the people who drop these tremendous amounts of money on high-grade commons are smart. That's why they have so much disposable income, right? Thus, I'm sure they know that if the market softens, their "investments" will be th first to fall. Even if the overall market stays strong and there is the inevitable economic "adjustment," as with any industry, it's the high-$ product that is affected first. Personally, I don't collect to "invest" (doesn't seem like many on the Board do)- so although a downward trend would suck, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>bruce dorskind</b><p><br /><br />While I appreciate Jim B's point, as well as the "ego" issue that Leon raises,<br />the simple fact is this<br /><br />(1) In every collectible (at least every valuable collectible) condition matters<br /><br />Look at 18th century American furniture<br />Coins<br />Tiffany Lamps<br />Rare watches<br /><br />Items in very high grades or near perfect condition command prices of 10, or in<br />some cases 100 times, what lower grade items command.<br /><br />A number of baseball card dealers began their career in coins. They can<br />certainly speak at great length about condition rarity and its concomitant<br />impact on prices.<br /><br />Secondly, one of the great joys about living in this country is nobody can<br />tell you how to spend your money...whether it be 10 dollars, 10,000 dollars<br />or 100 million dollars.<br /><br />Some people have world class card collections and live in a $600 a month apartment<br />other people who buy beaters drive a $80,000 car or spend their money on wine,<br />women and song.<br /><br />It is not appropriate to condem someone because they have the means to <br />buy what they wish. I don't hear anyone saying that John Travolta should<br />not have his own 727 jet or that Bill Gates should not own a $50 million home.<br /><br />God bless the brilliant minds that were able to earn tens of millions of dollars<br />and chose to spend a small fraction of their hard-earned wealth on rare baseball<br />cards.<br /><br />You never hear those gentlemen belittling people who have more than they do.<br />They are rarely sarcastic in their comments. And the fact that someone believes<br />that he has built one of the most remarkable collections in the hobby on $1500<br />is no more a badge of honor than someone who has done so by spending 15 million.<br /><br />Remember this is about baseball...and the greatest team ever- The Yankees have<br />always won by growing their own talent and by buying talent when they had the<br />opportunity. Not only are the Yankees the most successful franchise in sports<br />history but they are far and away the most profitable one in America.<br /><br />My guess is that those lucky enough to be able to spend a million dollars a year<br />on cards will each do well when it comes time to sell, and they will enjoy the hobby<br />until they are ready to sell.<br /><br />For those with more modest budgets, they too should enjoy the hobby. I am sure,<br />however, that there are very few collectors, regardless of what they spend, who would<br />not like to earn a substantial return on their investment when it comes time to sell.<br /><br />I will end this message with a quote from Bill Mastro who spoke with me at great length<br />after I was outbid on a card I really wanted. He said, "Bruce, don't sweat it,,,remember<br />all it is a piece of old cardboard."<br /><br />
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Cobby,<br /><br />None of them collect to invest--they collect because they love it.<br /><br />Also doubtful that people of this net worth would change their buying habits in a downturn.<br /><br />My sense is if the downturn came as the result of a recession then there would be a further widening of the gap between high and low end cards.<br /><br />The one scenario I think that could cause high end cards to drop would be something which causes them to lose complete faith in the whole grading process.<br /><br />Jim
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Hi Jim-<br />Your points are well-taken, but I have to say I do know at least one person who collects high-end cards to "invest" and not because he is mad about the hobby - which drives me crazy. (I got him into Vintage because I thought he would enjoy it like I do). I can't predict how his "investment" practices will change if there is a downturn (which I hope there isn't), but I can guarantee you I won't hear the end of his bitching and moaning about how I "got him into" cards. Yes, I got him into the hobby, but not into the investment aspect of it.<br /><br />I guess what most people are voicing is their dissatisfaction with (some of) the "have's" being "show-off's" and/or making certain cards out of reach for the rest of us. Sobeit, that's simple economics. I believe your assessment (subject to my caveat) that these people collect because they love it and that's great. But, with any group of people, there are always some who turn it into a "I have more/better toys than you do," which leaves a bad taste in people's mouths, especially with something that is primarily done for fun, for most.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Cobby,<br /><br />Points well taken--some of it is just human nature I guess.<br /><br />JIm
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>DJ</b><p>Jim,<br /><br />In all honesty, is that what we are trying to do? Build a complete T206 of "8"'s and own the world's greatest T206 set?<br /><br />If you pay a minimum of $4,000 for commons with some selling for around $6,000-7,000 and count the stars along the $14,000-20,000 range wouldn't you have invested roughly $3 Million on your conquest with extreme difficulties? Is it feasable in your lifetime? <br /><br />As far as Lattimore goes, maybe there is a guy out there who collects Lattimore and wants an "8". People do collect after all. My highest graded T206 (most are unslabbed) is a Jake Stahl at PSA7 because he's one of my faves and an attractive and colorful card. Of course I bought it three years ago for $190. <br /><br />I thought about it more after I posted and I asked myself "self, if I had all the money in the world, would that be my conquest as well?" and I said "nah". I would rather own other avenues (Yum Yum's, e107's in any condition) and go a different difficulty route. Collecting where only 10-12 examples in the world in less than appealing condition, not cards that exist in massive quantities, but limited in "pristine" condition. <br /><br />Too each is own I guess.<br /><br />DJ<br /><br />
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>DJ,<br /><br />To each his own.<br /><br />I would love to have a complete set T206 in psa 8 and better. I would rather though have a multitude of other sets in 8 or better. I have no interest in 7s or less.<br /><br />Remember, however, that some(a few) have the financial abolity and passion to do both.<br /><br />Jim
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim Crandall alluded to something earlier that we all seem to already know, and that is there is an ever widening gap between the wealthy and the middle class, and the rich keep getting richer. I guess that explains the equally enormous gap between a VG-EX and a PSA-8. A NR MT card has always been more expensive than a lower grade card, but I think it is the degree of that gap that is opening people's eyes and perhaps ruffling a few feathers. Maybe there is a little class warfare going on here, which might explain why this topic touches a chord with so many people.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>Bill Gates doesn't belittle anyone that has more money than him? I guess that's a true statement in a way since no one has more money than he does. And yes, Bruce, I know that jab was meant for me. I don't belittle every rich person I know, only pompous, arrogant asses like you who look down on us, how did you put it, pedestrian collectors of Net54.<br /><br />I would have belittle every person on Net54 if I was someone that belittled every person richer than me.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>John Travolta should not have a 727 jet and Bill Gates should not have a $50 million home. There, I said it.<br /><br />I don't care if people pay $10K for PSA 8 commons, so long as they're humble about it. But that was an inappropriate analogy, I think. Excess is the one thing that is behind most of this society's issues, IMHO.<br /><br />P.S. Not everyone who has ridiculous amounts of money has a brilliant mind. In fact, very few of them do. (Nothing personal towards Bruce or anyone, by the way).
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>I thought Bruce had excellent points and I agree with him.<br /><br />Jim
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An Analysis of the Yorktown Heights T 206 PSA 8 E-Bay Auction
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>Cobby, so true. The truely brilliant minds are people like Stephen Hawking. Travolta entertains us and our society overpays entertainers, including athletes. Bill Gates is basically a theif having taken advantage of some legal loopholes and basically ripped off the Windows OS from Apple.<br /><br />Gee, imagine that, Crandall agrees with Dorkskin<br /><br />Jay<br /><br />I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.
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