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Posted By: <b>Paul</b><p>The Robert Edwards Auction brings back to mind a question that I've been wondering about for awhile. How many people out there have the resources and the willingness to spend, say, $5,000 on one lot of vintage baseball cards? And to do this not once in a lifetime, but several times a year?<br /><br />I mean this question very seriously. The percentage of people with that kind of discretionary income is very small. Combine that with the percentage of people with a serious interest in vintage cards, and the number is even smaller. Yet, in auction after auction held by REA, Mastro, Lew Lipset and a few others, dozens if not hundreds of lots of vintage cards are sold for many thousands of dollars each.<br /><br />The membership of this board collectively probably knows every serious vintage card collector in the country. I would be very interested to hear your estimates of roughly how many folks there are out there spending this kind of cash on vintage cards. I am absolutely not asking for information about anyone's personal finances. I'm just interested in the overall state of the market. Maybe a different way of asking my question is this: How large is the potential universe of bidders on vintage card lots in the 5K plus range?<br /><br />Thanks.

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Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>It's likely that a number of people are investing in sports memorabilia, which means they are putting more than collecting money into an auction. My guess is that a number of investers spend their money in the big auctions and skip eBay.

How much money is out there?
 

Posted By: <b>ted</b><p>To keep it short....i'm sure some people use cards instead of stock market, i'm sure a few use loans and mortgages and such....and i'm sure a few are fiscal in other aspects of their life to leave them extra funds for big purchases. That being said, you'd be amazed at how much liquid is around this country. Those people, take olberman or candyman, are wealthy for whatever reason and can drop 200k and not blink. Furthermore, i'm sure some people lake the financial prudence necessary to sustain a healthy lifestyle and at the same time, collect something they love. In otherwords, i'm sure some of you out there buy it b/c you love it..not b/c you can afford it...<br /><br />BlackSoxFan

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Posted By: <b>Brian Lindholme</b><p>That limit has been officially declared by my wife <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Seems the 8 yr old minivan needs brakes and the sofa is sagging...kid just got braces and the dog got neutered.<br /><br />Sounds like a bad country and western song !!!<br /><br />I'd rather buy a few more Fan Craze cards and finish off my T205 set but I don't want the song to be D-I-V-O-R-C-E <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />I think this is a good topic, but I also know that ALL grown-up hobbies get expensive. What about my neighbor with the new truck to pull his new boat who is building a bigger garage for the RV Bus ? I'm thinking "This guy is NUTS...why he doesn't just buy some graded Cobbs or Wagners and stop fooling around ??? hahahaha<br /><br />Take care,<br />Brian L.<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>That is a very interesting question. Apparently there are a lot of them. But other than the big auction houses, we don't know if it is a thousand people winning one or two lots each or a much smaller number who win multiple lots. Most likely some combination of the two.<br />JimB

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Posted By: <b>Joe_G.</b><p>For every collector who bids big on a lot, there is a seller (who is also likely a collector) who now has big money to do as he/she pleases. In some cases the seller is getting out of the hobby but there is more than enough new blood to take his/her place with disposable funds.

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Posted By: <b>DJ</b><p>That is an interesting question.<br /><br />I for one am a collector true to heart, like you guys. I did purchase two separate collections a year ago that would set me back twice the paid amount today and I basically purchased the collections for a handful of cards. I was able to sell off the rest for a small profit and have those kept cards pay for themselves.<br /><br />I have met several 'new' collectors who got into the buying market because it is the hot thing to do now as they are unhappy with the current state of the Stock market. Purchasing a collection for four figures is kind of like the tech wave where people were purchasing stock that they knew nothing about but noticed they were increasing on a daily fashion. Are vintage pre-war trading cards in the same family as 'beanie babies'? Do I need to compare Charlie Buffington to 'Tabasco the Bull'?<br /><br />I used to purchase around a dozen decent cards a month for my collection and that is now down to maybe 2-3. I see $60 cards selling for $200 and $300 cards selling for $600 and I haven't been able to add an OJ in three months where I would pick up at least two a month. It's good for my private collection now (the soaring values), but I'm having trouble making sense of the current market...my card family 'ain't growing'. While us VBC members ogle, enjoy and love our cards (and the history behind the players on the cards), a rich wig who has no idea what a W514 is or a T217 is high bidder on something he knows nothing about. <br /><br />As far as REA, I've given up. 0-3. <br /><br />DJ

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Posted By: <b>Rob</b><p>I have that one - the one with the red feet. Is it worth anything? Regardless, it's a keepsake of sentimental value.

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Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>There is a core of collectors out there (like me) who work extra hours to generate extra income to use on cards. Thankfully, business is good enough right now that I don't have to sell off cards to finance my habit. <br /><br />There are many collectors/dealers who primarily buy for themselves but who grab bargains where they can be found and try to sell those cards, or who hold them for later use as trade bait and/or rainy day sales.<br /><br />There are some collectors who are also sold on the idea of cards as investments. They not only buy what they collect, they buy what they think will go up in price, meaning that the current pricing is not an issue to them. Who among us would not have happily paid twice the then-market price on caramel cards in 2002 knowing what we know now? I know that around my house lately I am not getting any **** about buying cards instead of putting the $$ into an "investment" like stocks (which have always struck me as about as intelligent an investment as betting on black in roulette, but I digress).<br /><br />There are some investors, but I suspect that number is far, far less than many think. There simply hasn't been the press coverage like there was 15 years ago that propelled casual people into the market. <br /><br />Finally, the items that are selling big are really tough to find. All it takes is a half-dozen serious collectors to skyrocket an auction when they all want the items in question.

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Posted By: <b>dan mckee</b><p>There are several serious, longtime and some new collectors that are not "posting" to this board that can spend $5000 at lunch 3 times a week and not have it phase them.

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Posted By: <b>Josh</b><p>Interesting topic, I too am amazed when I see these prices, but when it really comes down to it, 80-90%+ of these items being sold at Mastro, REA, etc. are rare investment quality items, and a $5K investment is really a small piece in the big picture of one's portfolio (assuming one has some sort of investment portfolio, whether it be as simple as a bank account to stocks/bonds to real estate, and I highly doubt the majority of the buyer don't have something together).<br /><br />Two weeks ago I purchased a lot from the Mastro auction that I paid $4,700 including juice. Yesterday, I won a lot from REA that will run me $5,200. While the $10K layout may seem hefty, I think my $10K here will hold up as well if not better than if I had gone and poured in into say, 150 shares of Altria.<br />Obviously, not everyone has $10K just laying around burning a hole in their pocket, but this is money that I have essentially budgeted from my income specifically for these type purchases. I think there are a lot of other investor/collectors who think along the same lines, and these are the people who are laying out $5-10K.<br /><br />

How much money is out there?
 

Posted By: <b>Scott Forrest</b><p>Josh reminds me of: "...I've got 20-20 vision, but only looking back."<br /><br />I think most people who dump large sums into vintage cards are kidding themselves when they call it an "investment" - that's usually just rationalizing the fun they are having. Since many "investment type" cards have risen over the last few years, these so-called "investments" are making the collectors look mighty wise, but as Barry has pointed out, this hobby has had dips in the past and will have additional ones.

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Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>you still have cards. When my enron stock tanked all I had left was a popcorn fart, which is nothing at all...

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Posted By: <b>Texas Ted</b><p>Without sharing more information than is prudent, I got into cards as a way to diversify my investments. A few years back when the dot coms were flying and stocks seemed to be hitting new highs every day, I decided it could not last, and sold a bunch of stock to put into cards. While I did not expect them to earn huge dividends, I just did not want to have all of my eggs in the stock market basket.<br /><br />Well it did not take long for the market to drop, and I have friends whose portfolios took hits of 50% or more. My cards have either maintained their values or gone up a little.<br /><br />I have since taken many of those large lots and sets, and sold individual cards or smaller lots to make small profits. Since I am semi-retired, I have the time and energy to do that, and do not need to depend on the income to feed my family. All the dollars I get from sales net of expenses go right back into cards. As a result, my initial "diversification" has done much better than what it would have done in the market, and has been a whole lot more fun.<br /><br />Now I guess I am a small time dealer, and would like to protest against some of the anti dealer sentiment and rants I have seen on the board. Dealers provide a service that helps your hobby. We in fact make a market for the cards you love. We bring the buyer and seller together and make a little for our efforts. If all sellers had the time, talent and desire to market their cards individually, they could realize the highest return for their cards. But most don't want to take all that time, and are willing to take something less to get their money immediately without a lot of work. That allows me to do all the scanning, listing, mailing, record keeping and dealing with the occasional moron, non paying bidder and check bouncer to supply the cards y'all like to collect. True, some dealers are jerks and money grubbers and there are the frauds and shysters out there too. But many "dealers" are not bad people.<br /><br />Thanks for letting me rant.<br><br>Texas Ted<br />Starting my third attempt at a second childhood.<br />

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Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>I had a friend whose all tech portfolio peaked at $2.1 million during the boom. He resisted the temptation to diversify or cash out and today hasn't got a pot to pee in. I myself was forced to leave lots of money on the table because I could not talk my better half into selling off our tech holdings until well into the slide (actually, I surreptitously sold off half our holdings without telling her then got her permission; had I waited for her to pull the trigger nearly all of the profit would have evaporated instead of just about 50% of it). <br /><br />Like I said, even if the cards tank (and over the last 30 years, they haven't dipped any worse than any other asset and have always rebounded), I still have my little works of art to enjoy.

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Posted By: <b>Scott Forrest</b><p>say GOLD

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Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>As far as purchasing art and memorabilia for the long term, I am a firm beleiver in buying high quality items that you love and that you feel are well undervalued/underappreceated. High quality today is high quality ten years from now, and the worst thing that can happen is you end up with high quality items that you love.<br /><br />Also, an investor in this type of stuff should avoid overpaying at the start because he beleives the material is sure to go up in the future. This is a common error for beginners investing in modern rookie cards or whatever. That PSA graded Goudey Babe Ruth isn't the investment. The investment is the amount of money you paid for that PSA Babe Ruth Goudey. Strangely, many beginning investors in memorabilia beleive that two people purchasing exactly equivelent items but at different prices are making the same investments because they both purchasing the same material.

How much money is out there?
 

Posted By: <b>Scott Forrest</b><p>Some collectors with loads of discretionary income spend "whatever" it takes to get an item they want, then call it an "investment", when really they simply wanted the item and had the firepower to blow away the competition. It's possible the item will be re-sellable later at a higher value, but the thought process that went into the bidding probably wasn't as thorough as what David would go through. I know this to be true because I've spoken with such bidders and what it came down to was "I really needed it" or "I had to win SOMETHING" or "I fought it out with the other bidder and WON". Doesn't sound like strategic investment decisions.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>I have to agree with Scott. Baseball cards are not an investment; it’s a great way to rationalize spending large sums of money. But if you were to sit down with a financial planner most would laugh at the idea. <br /><br />This is not to say invest wisely in your collection, watch market prices try not to pay more than something is worth. Its also smart to leave yourself some room for positive returns when you buy items you may decide to sell in a few years. <br /><br />The simple fact of the matter is cards are not the stock market they can be loosely compared sure any collectible can. Enron may have bombed true. But if you spent the $62,530.94 dollars you would have spent on the 2 cards bellow on Microsoft stock in August of 2000. In pretty sure you would not have sold the stock for $45,875.00 in May 2005 for a loss of $16,655.94 five years later. <br /><br />Cards are cards buy them because you want them, can afford them etc. Sure there better than going to Vegas or the horse track. But don’t kid yourself that they are sound financial investing. <br /><br /><img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/smileys/small/32806.jpg"> <img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/smileys/small/Item_2058_1.jpg">

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Posted By: <b>PASJD</b><p>I would be very surprised if many people buy cards strictly or even principally as an investment. I would suspect those who say it is more a rationale for spending discretionary income are correct. Not that it can't work out well sometimes, but I just don't believe that the prospect of appreciation (which would have to include serious study of current prices and expected trends, and would mean that one would only buy cards one thought were relatively underpriced) is what is motivating the vast majority of purchases.

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Posted By: <b>RIchard Lloyd</b><p>I guess the way I look at it...BUY what you like as long as it is vintage and LONG TERM collecting will take care of its future worth... My cards are not for sale for another 20 years!!! buy the right stuff and TIME will take care of future worth... I am in it for the long RUN..Somethng "you always" here in buying stocks and bonds.. I NEVER think what a card cost today an 1 year from now what would it may be worth... to me..thats not the correct mind set for a COLLECTOR!!!<br /><br />TIME WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CARDS WORTH...long term thinking!!<br /><br />Best

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Posted By: <b>David Vargha</b><p>I have <b>always</b> lost money on <b>every</b> card transaction I have ever made. They are a very bad investment.<br><br>DavidVargha@hotmail.com

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Posted By: <b>Paul Arpasi</b><p>I'm a collector and a physician. I try to always get a good deal in order to make the card an investment piece. The gentleman above who said that the investment is the price you pay for the card not the card itself is correct, in my opinion. I find that the large auction houses offer rare opportunities to obtain stuff you infrequently see on ebay or at shows but, unfortunately, buyers premiums and hobby millionaires keep me from looking in those arenas for cards. I choose therefore to continuously improve my collection by selling cards, buying cards which are a deal and trading cards adding discretionary income as I see fit. The fun after all is not paying whatever price is necessary to get a card. The fun is in looking looking looking and finally finding an item in a deal and at a price which is rewarding.

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Posted By: <b>ted</b><p>Hey Paul!!!! Glad you found your way to the forum

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Posted By: <b>Dave H</b><p>I am in investment advisor at a national brokerage house. Cards are most certainly an investment, but like any investment, your return will come from your skills at obtaining good value for your purchase (good purchase price) combined with your skill at recognizing which 'cards' the market will assign the most growth in price to over your holding period. <br /><br />the current problem is, while individual issues will do better than some in the near term, we are probably at or near a longer term peak in prices as we speak. card cycles are similar to stock cycles, this one mirroring the move to 'hard assets' starting in march 2000. cards are participating in the recent (5-6 year cycle) upturn in commodities/real estate/art markets as investors moved away from financial assets (stocks). <br /><br />ironically, peaks usually occur when a large amount of unsophisticated participants enter a market (much of what you are all saying here in essense) and have no sense of true value, purchasing an assett simply because is has gone up and they expect it to go up again (greater fool theory).<br /><br />stick to your hard pricing principals and let the cards pass if they are too expensive. inevitably, as always, the market will turn and you will be there to pick up the same cards on the cheap when the blood is in the streets.

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Posted By: <b>Scott Forrest</b><p>in summary: buy low, sell high?

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Posted By: <b>Wesley</b><p>&lt;the current problem is, while individual issues will do better than some in the near term, we are probably at or near a longer term peak in prices as we speak.&gt; <br /><br /><br />Dave, Are you saying this is a good time to cash out of our sportscards?<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Sorry I still don’t see cards as an investment anyone or I should be putting too much into. Collecting for the fun of it sure, its like buying a new boat, fancy car, stereo or new plasma TV. You most likely will not make money or get a return. <br /><br />Also I doubt many of us will grow to attached to our IRA or stocks like we will or baseball cards. I was always under the impression that in the long run cards are really only worth what someone is willing to pay you for them. I don’t recall being able to work down the price of a share of stock. Or being offered only $40 for a share of a stock that was worth $60 because the buyer felt it was a fair price. <br /><br />Not arguing that you can make money with cards sometime. But if I had my choice of $100k worth of Microsoft or $100k worth of baseball cards for my retirement. It’s a no brainier.<br />

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Posted By: <b>robert a</b><p>John.<br />You do have your choice. Sell your cards and buy microsoft. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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Posted By: <b>Richard LLOYD</b><p>The folks who bought George C miller cards, Star candy cards,Uncle Jacks cards,...etc. in the 70's-80's are making a killing today!! GREAT INVESTMENT!! The "RIGHT" cards will increase if a collector takes the long term approach..<br />its years not days to look for a return!!<br />Best

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Ironic you would use the Microsoft vs cards analogy. About 5 years ago I sold 300 shares of Microsoft at $71.00 ea. With that exact money, and a tad bit more, I bought the Four Base Hits Kelly. The Microsoft is standing about $25 ea share now. The Four Base Hits has probably close to quadrupled in value.....yes, this is only one instance but I would say you might be careful when making these analogies. Who knows when, of if, the bottom will fall out on cards but they have done better than most stocks I've bought. regards

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Posted By: <b>rob</b><p>Not to bring you down Leon, but microsoft split 2:1 in 2003, thus your sale is still certainly a good one, not as juicy as you have represented in your posting. I would rather have a vintage baseball card than a stock these days anyway, congrats on rolling over into some nice cards.

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I would have to go back and look at the timing of the split, and my cost basis to see how poorly it did, but regardless it has done mediocre at best. The weighted graph is still from $40'ish a share in '01 to $25'ish today. To me that's around a 30% loss....and the card has gone up 300%-400%....depending on the price it would bring.....take your pick.....regards

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Posted By: <b>rob</b><p>much agreed, thats why i said the sale was still a good one. I was not disputing the clear excellence of swapping into a different investment, just trying to clarify some of the numbers...again, well done!

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Who'd a thought that many years ago that stocks vs cards would be a relative investment comparison. It seems that almost ANY pre-WWII card has done well over the last 5 years. Let's hope it continues. My thought's are that it will for the reasons pointed out in this thread. There are quite a few folks using cards as an investment vehicle and when you enjoy it at the same time it can make for exploding growth. Add to that technology and the availability it brings with it, of extremely rare cards (which is an oxymoron anyway), and away we go.....happy investing....uh er......I mean collecting....

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Posted By: <b>dan mckee</b><p>John, I wish cards were not an investment. We would then have all collectors and no investors and no grading companies like it used to be, it was alot more fun then.<br><br>Dick, those of us who purchased the millers and others in the 70s and 80s did it for collecting, not investing. Dan.

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Posted By: <b>Richard LLOYD</b><p>You are RIGHT Dan and thats my main point that collect the RIGHT cards and have fun and the value will take care of its self... LONG TERM thinking!! keeping the Miller..etc.. cards because you enjoyed them eventually took care of the $$$$ value.. so, the way that I look at it is buy the cool or odd ball cards and have fun with them and 10-20 years from now you will say gee- they are worth XXX% more and I had fun doing it.. The value will increase proportional to the rareity of the card today..which means.. providing you buy cards that are sought after!! they will still be sought after 10-20 years from now..<br /><br />Best

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Posted By: <b>Adam J. Moraine</b><p>I agree with Mr. Lloyd, 110%. I am 24, and collect nothing but vintage cards. Vintage cards/ memorabilia. Pre WW2- mid 1960's. My friends collect newer stuff (game used memorabilia cards). I believe that 20 years from now, my 1953 Topps Mickey Mantle (I know NOT vintage by boards standards, just using an example)will be worth a lot more money than a card of A-ROD with a little piece of game used jersey attached to it.<br /><br />Best Regards,<br /><br />Adam J. Moraine

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Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>On a percentage basis, I wouldn't rank The George Miller cards as one of the best. I remember around 1985 paying $200 for a really nice common. At the same time, I was paying less than $10 for NM t206s. Also, commons have far outperformed HOFers on a percentage basis.<br /><br />In the 80s, I did a lot business as a consultant building collections as an investment. My first piece of advice I gave to them was to buy things that they had some connection to such as a favorite player, team, etc. That way, when the market gets soft or bottoms out, you still have something that makes you feel good when you look at it.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I like to sit outside drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: <b>calvindog</b><p>As someone who spends 6 figures a year on cards, I can tell you that this 'hobby' is hardly thought of as an investment. Josh, Altria is a good buy right now and unlike T206 prices, is not at a peak. While I certainly agree that the stock market is hardly a place for prudent investing over the past 5 years, why not compare card collecting to the real esate boom instead of comparing it to the price of JDSU? I rationalize my ridiculous outlays by knowing that, at worst, I may only recoup 90% of what I spend should I sell in the next couple of years. As for the future, I'd like to think that this commodity will not become hit the skids. The reason why people like us ultimately cannot view card collecting as an investment solely is that we are in love with these precious bits of cardboard and the clear thinking required to treat them as strictly investments is simply not there.

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Posted By: <b>richard lloyd</b><p>And "why I believe" the reason why prices will never hit the skeds is because there will always be "COLLECTORS" looking for these wonderfull piecies of cardboard and if you think it is tough to find these "HIGH SOUGHT" cards today..just think how tough it will become 10-20 years from now to find them.. <br />ATTRITON!!!!!

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Posted By: <b>Bill Stone</b><p>I wasn't sure whether to post this under this heading or the T210 thread but either would fit my thoughts . I have been attempting to collect the players on the Frankfort baseball team in the Blue Grass League--T210 Series 6. In the past year I have acquired one from a fellow board member and secured scans of all but 2 of the total of 8 cards in that series( thanks to the assistance of other board members). While I would pay dearly to acquire the remainder of the set(the money is out there) it is really to include them in my research for a history of the team and then to eventually donate them to the City of Frankfort,Kentucky museum. For me,the pleasure of owing them really is in sharing their history with others. Is there a museum/library that houses a collection of baseball cards ----that is open to the public to view?

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Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>If you do a search on the Burdick collection on this site, you get a lot of pertinent information regarding museums and their views and how they handle baseball cards donated to them.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I like to sit outside drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: <b>richard lloyd</b><p>baseball hall of fame has many on the 2nd floor...

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Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>*

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Leon I simply used Microsoft as a recognizable name vs. many of the stocks of companies you could have bought in 2000. Stocks aren’t the only things you can invest in IRA’s, real estate etc. <br /><br />There’s no doubt Leon has done well. But I’m sure Even he would have to admit not everyone does as well as he did. Are there other “Four Base Hits” Kelly cards I can invest in? Seeing as I believe he has the only one around it seems like a very limited investment opportunity for a guy like me. <br /><br />My point is not everyone can invest or is buying one-of-a-kind cards. For every guy like Leon there are 20 guys buying $30,000 1952 Topps Mantle’s and game used goods. Baseball card prices are also subjective and don’t really have a true set market value. Plus how many people here have bought forged real estate,fake IRA’s? or trimmed stocks? <br /> <br />I wont argue that you can make some coin here and there and even make a killing once in a blue moon. But if people are out there buying up cards in the hopes of retiring early or using cards as replacement for traditional sound investing or are hoping to make a fortune. I really feel the bulk of these people will be very disappointed. <br /><br />I used the T206 auctions above because its something I follow. And there is a perfect example of an investment, which lost money. I would bet as of the past 4 yrs there are many more items that have lost money or broke even, rather than made money. Interesting to hear you thoughts. Maybe we can prove baseball cards are the next major moneymaker after all.<br /><br />Dick ANY person who bought ANY pre-war card in the 1970’s and or the 1980’s has made a killing. Those deals aren’t available to us anymore. <br />

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Posted By: <b>Richard Lloyd</b><p>I would think that main stream cards such as common t206, t205, 1952 topps...etc.. would not change in value alot over time..maybe +- several percent..and from an investment prespective not a good choice...<br />However, regional food cards and pacific coast league cards have JUMPED ALOT.. to me, W-cards are very under valued and collectors will begin turning to them because of the high price of traditional main stream cards like OJ's,Cracker jacks and rare backs.. I also think Cuban cards will grow because of the limited number and awareness of them.. I am 80% collector and 20% investor but in order to do well as far as return, you need to buy the "CORRECT" cards that are undervalued and that will grow for the next 10-20 years... like my previous statement said, just collect the "RIGHT" stuff and time will take care of value down the road with a little luck..<br />I would "STRONGLY" agree that cards should not be your main form of retirment..its an added feature!!! or iceing on the cake..<br /><br />If a collector has the attitude of how much is it worth the day after it is bought then he/she is not a collecotr but a dealer!!<br /><br />Best<br />Dick

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Posted By: <b>DJ</b><p>When I purchase a card, I purchase it because I want it for my collection, but in the background, I know that when I finally do sell my collection, I should get a decent return on the original purchase. It's not like I'm buying something stupid that won't appreciate like my ex-fiance' who owned an $800 purse. When I see that purse, I think "Hmmm...I could buy two Ned Williamson Old Judges for that price!". What will her purse be worth in the future? It should also be noted that she thought 'cards were stupid...that it was just pieces of paper'. How can I live with someone with an $800 bag telling me this? <br /><br />You can't compare pre-war cards to cars, TV's, stereo's or anything that loses it's value shortly after the purchase and the money is never recovered. You have to look at cards the same way you look at artwork, stamps, coins, antiques and such. <br /><br />An investment can best be described as something that appreciates in value and if you look at a Beckett from 1980 and then a 1985 and then five years after the fact, cards hold their own and there is a steady increase:<br /><br />I.E:<br /><br />1983 Beckett- T206 Honus Wagner $18,000 <br /> T206 Cy Young Portrait $25 <br /> T204 Ramly Set $7500 Mint<br /> N300 Mayo Hugh Duffy $125 Mint <br /> N172 Old Judge Charles Comisky $100 Mint<br /> <br />1991 Beckett- T206 Honus Wagner $125,000<br /> T206 Cy Young Portrait $550<br /> T204 Ramly Set $24,500 EX-MT <br /> N300 Mayo Hugh Duffy $600 EX-MT <br /> N172 Old Judge Charles Comisky $800 EX-Mt<br /><br />Amusing how 'Mint' was an option in the old days. <br /><br />I worked in a Stock brokerage for three years and I will tell you that there is little buyer confidence there at this moment.<br /><br />The 'bubble'(people who invested in companies like Global Crossing, CMGI, Cisco, Enron, Corning etc.) and fraud (can you compare trimmed cards to what happened to those Enron stock holders?) have caused 'paranoia' and people are looking to place money elsewhere. They figure that if they purchase $10,000 worth of these silly pieces of paper, that maybe in ten years, it will double in value. <br /><br />The problem lies in the fact that prices are so out of control right now (listen, the price guide is flying out the window) that it's hurting us 'die-hards' add to our collections. This has been my experience from talking to those who are paying through the nose for cards and who have removed funds form their portfolio. If I had a choice- $50K worth of cards or Microsoft, I would go for the cards to be honest with you.<br /><br />This isn't your grandfather's stock market anymore. But, will there be a pre-war 'bubble' in the horizon? <br /><br />DJ

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Posted By: <b>Texas Ted</b><p>I am amazed at how this thread has wound its way along into extremes. Once you mention the word investment it has quickly jumped into an attempt to get rich quick.<br /><br />My earlier post mentioned "diversification". I shifted some of the money out of high tech stocks and into cards (and mostly unsexy 50s cards at that), not as an investment with getting rich in mind, but merely as a hedge against a big drop. It was not unlike dumping dot com stocks and buying plain Jane Municipal bonds paying 2%. Well guess what? It happened.<br /><br />I was not looking for big investment gains, but loss avoidance. And I liked the cards I had also.<br /><br />I remember many years ago when I was considering buying a Miro print, the owner of the gallery told me to only buy art you like and never buy with the idea of making money. After all, if it loses value, you still have to look at it, and if you do, its only pleasant if you like it just for the art.<br><br>Texas Ted<br />Starting my third attempt at a second childhood.<br />

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Posted By: <b>Judge Dred</b><p>DJ,<br /><br />You are going to be a closet collector that doesn't tell your wife (the girl with the $800 bag) what you just added to your collection. The way things go you will probably quietly hoard a lot of nice material and then when the stuff really pushes the envelope and prices go really crazy (as if they aren't already) you will decide to tell her about the little "investments" that you've made in card board. Within a short period of time the bubble will burst and you'll have a nice collection but not worth near as much as you figured. She'll then swing that $800 bag at you and hit you square in the forehead where it will promptly leave a huge mark in the shape of the metal logo which you so despise (most of us do). <br /><br />Do you think that the prices can get any "worse" for collectors? Do you think that there's going to be a huge influx of cash into the hobby? I keep thinking that it's already hit a peak. Perhaps that is just my wishful thinking. Actually I can't wait for the bubble to burst so that I can start picking up the material cheaper.

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Since day one I have always collected the obscure and rare and got luckey in that nowadays they seem to be worth a lot more than when bought. I absolutely DO agree with you that a lot of folks that don't know what the hell they are doing could/have come in and are buying "wrong". My cards are a percentage of my overall investing strategy, not all of it. When I first started ( a mere 8 years or so ago) I didn't think of them as an investment. I love baseball, collecting, and money <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> so they are a great fit for me. Ask Scott B how much I fret about that T205 Johnson I bought from him or John Spencer how much I was stressed over my E102 Cobby purchase. Then when I realized that it was always going to have to be big bucks for good cards, and they could be worth more in the future, it was ok. The wife took a few more years to be somewhat comfortable with it. She asked me yesterday how much I spent in the REA. I told here and she said "WHAT!!" and then went back to watching t.v. regards

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>I hear you DJ, but we also have to take our pre-war blinders off here. We are not the mainstream we are the minority. For every one of us who collects old judges for potential investment or just to collect in general there are 100’s if not 1000’s of people buying Sammy Sosa jerseys and cards. Why do these people buy these items? Because of the precedence’s we have set in the pre-war market. That old stuff is worth money, there for when this Sosa card is 40 yrs old it we worth as much as that 40 yr Mantle card. <br /><br />Millions and millions of dollars are spent in this hobby on new goods which do depreciate just like cars, stereo’s etc. The stuff that retains value for the most part A.K.A pre-war has a fatal flaw. There is not enough supply to fill the investing or collecting demand of today’s market (hence today’s prices). There is plenty of opportunities in investing be it stocks, real estate, 401k’s, IRA’s etc. In pre-war there is not. If pre-war baseball cards are such a perfect moneymaker, and so much safer and more profitable than any form of investing today. Why isn’t every person in America buying antiques? <br /><br />Most everything goes up in value with time or as it gets older, Stars Wars figures, clocks, furniture, cars, coins, glassware etc. Baseball cards aren’t alone here. All of these hobbies have had their dips too. I think ours is fast approaching. <br /><br />Dick mainstream or not actual rarity or availability of items has very little effect on price. Perfect case in point T206 Wagner vs. Leon’s “Four Base Hits” Kelly card, which is more valuable and more in demand. <br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Leon thanks for the response. <br /><br />I’m not trying to beat anyone up I too am a collector and have very little money invested in my collection. If and when I sell I plan to make some good money. I just think its very dangerous what we say, or insinuate about cards being such a great investment as a way of justifying or dirty little habit. It can sometimes bring in un-educated investors into what is being described as a fail-safe gold mine. This in turn drives up prices and may very well hurt the hobby.Everyone here can point out the good buys, but there have also been some bad ones too I’m sure of it.<br /><br />And Leon I too would take your “Four Base Hits” Kelly or Western Playground set over Microsoft any day. But I’m a collector. Not an investor.<img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/smileys/143.gif"><br />

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Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>and as you acquire the things life is made of (spouse, home and kids, for almost all of us), your ability to control what you do with your money shrinks. When I was single and living in a dumpy little apartment I had an income many times that of my costs. Now, I have a minimum nut to cover every month so large that I know that the first 90% of my income goes to that and that alone. Almost all of that money is consumed (although the mortgage payment could be viewed as a real estate investment), meaning it is paid out for things that we either eat, use or that have no real remaining market value after I buy them (I don't count garage sale type value as any value). What can I do with the remaining crumbs:<br /><br />1. Consume it on luxuries<br />2. Invest it in something "safe" that will earn me maybe 4.5% a year, tops<br />3. Buy stocks and hope that the ones I choose are more Google and less Enron or Worldcom or Global Crossing or Tyco or...you get my drift.<br />4. Invest it in hard assets and hope they appreciate or at least hold value relative to inflation. <br /><br />I'd enjoy option #1 but at the end of the day would probably regret the consumption (some wise older folks in fact recently told me not to do that because they are now regretting it in their 70's). Option #2 won't lose my money but a single really good move in option #3 or #4 would do in 1 year what 10 years of option #2 does. Since I am relatively young, that's why every financial analyst preaches looking to go long when possible with an investment that has the best ratio of risk-reward that you can stand. So we are left with #3 and #4. My wife gambles in #3, heavily. I don't want to put the last bit into it too. That leaves hard assets, either real estate or chattel. I could buy income producing real estate, except that I don't want to take what little time I have to managing and maintaining income producing real estate--tangible hard assets never have broken toilets, they don't need to be evicted for non-payment of rent, they don't need maintenance--nor do I want to pay perpetually out of pocket for someone else to manage real estate. Plus, with a house I am already effectively "into" real estate more than I'd like to be (I wish I could put in a stop loss on my house value). So we are left with hard assets that don't need to be managed or maintained: art, gems, bullion, collectibles. Art is frought with fraud and unless you are dealing in masterpieces, it is extremely hard to recoup your investment because the market is controlled by a cartel of dealers and auctioneers who have most of the inventory and make the market. Diamonds/gems? Again, frought with fraud and controlled by a cartel that effectively sets the price by restricting supply. Bullion? I remember my father making a killing in gold in the late 1970's by buying and selling Krugerrands during an inflationary spike. I have often thought of buying gold instead of cards for the long term. But hard gold (not securitized gold, which is really just a variant on #3) only makes money in times of calamity. In other words, it is the ultimate timing-dependent asset. That leaves collectibles. I don't find other forms of collectibles to be interesting, so cards are it. Which cards, that's like choosing stocks. I've been remarkably successful over the years in picking what cards to buy for investment; I'd like to think it is because my enthusiasm for the task leads me to make good predictions.

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>FYI I sold the Western Playground set.....it wasn't a good investment or anything (joke)...I do see your point about pre-war cards and the euphoria surrounding their surge in prices. It reminds me of back in '97-'98 when I bought stocks and they automatically went up. They never went down...it was like "if I buy Microsoft I should make 50% or more all of the time" which of course is a fallacy. So I do agree with you in that respect. Also, when I sold that Keefe G & B I took a $1400 loss....so there is a downside to this stuff too... very good points made. take care

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Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>Star Wars is a dead market, even with the new movie coming out. I recently sold a nice group of 14 figures on eBay that went for a whopping $17. 5 years ago, they would have gone for close to $100, if not more. I still have the Imperial Shuttle Tiburion and am scared to death to sell it because I fear what it might sell for. It used to be $1,000 piece, now, who knows.<br /><br />But yes, in general, various collectibles tend to appreciate over time. And they are always a good hedge against inflation. <br /><br />the best is advice is what I told everyone in the 80s and has been mentioned here a few times, buy what you like and love. If it goes up in value, great. If not, you still have something you love to look at and own.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I like to sit outside drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>I have a PSA 7 OC Imperial Shuttle Tiburion. That I wouldn't sell for all the money in the world.

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Posted By: <b>Richard Masson</b><p>1980s cards are up to $0.19/lb. Learn what happened last time baseball cards were touted as an investment. Buy them to enjoy collecting them, nothing more or less.

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Posted By: <b>Paul</b><p>As the one who started this thread, I think it's my prerogative to try to get back to my original question. How many potential buyers are there for a $5K lot of vintage cards? <br /><br />For those of you picky about details, the lot includes a broad diversity of items (from Old Judges to Cubans to Goudeys) so that it will attract at least a passing interest from every vintage collector. (I know, 5K isn't enough to have that kind of diversity, but I think you get my point). Oh, and the lot has no PSA 8-10s, so we can exclude the condition obsessed investors from the calculation. How many collectors do we have out there? 100? 1000?

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Posted By: <b>Greg Ecklund</b><p>Leon makes a great point about the market...a lot of people thought they were geniuses for buying JDSU or CSCO and making 100% per year when in fact they lucked into a raging bull market. Many people have a narrow view of the market and seem to believe that just because the Dow or Nasdaq hasn't done anything for years, that nothing has gone up. Those people have missed bull markets in high yield debt, commodities and commodity stocks, foreign stocks, Utilities, many restaurant stocks, etc. <br /><br />I have been investing and trading for a living for the past five years and can definitely say that it takes a hell of a lot of work in order to do it well. During the bubble years, too many people that didn't know what they were doing thought they could become rich by investing in garbage companies like DrKoop.com or TheGlobe.com - there was simply too much "dumb money" out there.<br /><br />If someone came to this board and announced that he or she was new to vintage cards and was now buying thousands of dollars worth of raw T206 Hall of Famers, they would likely be given friendly advice and also deservedly ridiculed. The experts on this board would ask the pertinent questions like whether the person could spot a reprint, a trimmed card, or whether they even knew how to properly grade and value a card. Stocks are the same way - if you don't know how to spot signs of fraud or how to do basic things like read a financial statement, then you are the equivalent of a baseball card collector who can't tell a T206 from a T207. As with any endeavor where your money is at risk, educating yourself is the best thing you can do.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Paul I think you may have a hard time getting an answer. We would have to know the financial status of all the collectors in the US to figure out who could afford to purchase the lot if they even wanted too. I’m not quite following where you’re going with this. Please help me out.

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Greg well said my point exactly. This hobby if you look at from strictly an investment point of view is just as unstable as any other form of investing. Its not safer or better in any way. We argue that it is because all of us here have a passion about the stuff and very few of us would ever have the same passion about a stock in any particular company.

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Posted By: <b>Greg Ecklund</b><p>Richard, that is one of the best comments ever on this board...I'm still laughing as I type this.<br /><br />I can just imagine them trading on the Chicago Merc too, right along with the pork bellies and cattle. <br /><br />"I need 1000 pounds of 80's Baseball Cards for June delivery"<br /><br />"Donruss, Topps, or Fleer?"

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Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Yeah Greg it’s a jungle out there I lost 23,000 pounds of Fleer to frost last year. Didn’t see that coming.

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Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>I lucked out. Rats chewed up all the 80s cards I had in the attic. The chewed up cards turned out to be great insulation which went a long way to lowering my heating bill.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>I like to sit outside drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: <b>Paul</b><p>I know there's no way to get an exact answer to my question. I was just looking for rough guesses on how many people you have seen drop that kind of money on a single lot of vintage cards.<br /><br />Based on what some others have said, it may actually be a huge number, since almost anyone can affort to buy a $5K lot of cards if they are willing to sell off most of them to pay for the few they really want. That was a possibility I hadn't really considered when I started this thread.

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Posted By: <b>Texas Ted</b><p>One thing everybody is forgetting is that for all the money spent on these auctions, somebody is selling. How much of the money spent is "new" money, and how much is just proceeds from sales of stuff in the same auction, or the prior one?<br><br>Texas Ted<br />Starting my third attempt at a second childhood.<br />

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Posted By: <b>DJ</b><p>The $800 bag is long gone and I'm happy to say that. I am a collector but I'm also a realist. There will always come a point when you have to say 'it's time to let some stuff go'. Then you guys will start a thread here on 'The DJ Collection' (you bet those babies are getting slabbed with my name) and you can talk about how my Scrapps set is over $250,000 (this is the year 2060) and a thread will be started about how one person needs the Hanlon and another needs Welsh. <br /><br />I may have to start a thread here shortly about what the loved ones in our lives think of our obsessions and why we can start a thread on beloved vertical cards and get excited to win a piece of paper.<br /><br />I agree one hundred percent at some of the comments left after I left mine. I know a man who invested $3,000 on J.D Drew (L.A Dodgers slug) baseball cards and another person who thought they could retire on rare 'Beanie Babies'. I just can't take anything seriously as an 'investment' born into the market suddenly like this. What has happened to those who saw an upside on rookie cards of players like George Brett, Nolan Ryan, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey Jr. and weren't we paying like $500-800 for PSA9's of Mark McGwire in 1998? I think I saw one sell for $23 a few days ago on eBay. <br /><br />The way I look at it is that there is so much demand in pre-war baseball cards because it's so limited and more people (more people with money) are discovering it. Not everyone can own a Ty Cobb T206 with a Ty Cobb back and I bet there are hundreds and hundreds that can afford one with only a small amount out there and everytime one goes up for auction, those waiting will get another shot and cause the price to rise more.<br /><br />Either way, I hope the bubble does burst (not too much of a burst) so I can increase my rate of purchase. <br /><br />DJ<br /><br />P.S NO WAY IN HELL WILL I HAVE MY STUFF GRADED WITH A PERSONALIZED SLAB! <br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Might as well get my two cents in here. Investing in vintage cards has certainly proven profitable over the last several years and that is undeniable. However, I get a sense that prices in certain areas of the market have risen too drastically and much of it makes very little sense. There is a very deep market for inexpensive and medium priced vintage cards. But when you begin to see some of the astronomical prices that some cards attain- a quarter of a million dollars for a 1914 Babe Ruth card, for example-it makes you want to look a little deeper at why some have risen so dramatically. From my long experience in the hobby I'm not sure the "crazy" prices are always an accurate gauge of the market. I would rather look at cards that trade with some frequency and seem to attain strong prices consistently. These are what I refer to as the meat and potatoes of the hobby.<br /> But all overheated markets, as this one can reasonably be categorized, do eventually correct themselves and there is no question the card industry may be in the early stages of that. I'm not talking about a crash- I don't believe that will happen- but there are so many auctions with so many incredibly rare (or hyped as rare) items that at some point the market will just have to take a breather. Nothing goes up forever. There's nothing wrong with investing some of one's money in collectibles but they can and do go down and even some of the high flyers like Old Judge, tough e-cards, and others will not go up forever. I've seen many market dips over the years, and with the economy slowing down don't be surprised if in the not too distant future we will see a slowdown in our industry too. There is an incredible amount of money being channeled into collectibles but there are also many people cashing in and leaving the hobby. The baby boomers who started it all are getting older and many have gotten out. If too much material keeps hitting the market the supply and demand curve will shift and you may see more things out there than people can afford to buy. And with problems in the economy, my advise is not to get too carried away. And that is just one man's opinion.

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Posted By: <b>Elliot</b><p>I think a lot of people are buying $10,000 dogs with two $5000 cats. Also, I think that when things turn they can turn quickly as dealers will not be as willing to hold on to their inventory when prices are falling.

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Posted By: <b>Scott Elkins</b><p>Just look at the second T206 Doyle auctioned by Mastro, after KO won his - huge drop in price w/o KO bidding and the card was a PSA 3 (while the one KO won for six figures was a PSA 2).<br /><br />At different dollar increments, you lose many potential bidders. $5k was brought up - when card(s) reach that level you lose a certain amount of bidders. Then at $10k you lose more, etc. etc. <br /><br />I still believe there are several cards hovering around $5k that are steals and should (and someday will) become $10k+ cards (just like the E98 Old Put Cobb Wesley purchased from me).<br /><br />The biggest risks I see are the cards such as the 1914 Ruth. When you get to price levels like that, tons of potential bidders are lost. However, with increasing incomes, these worst investments might not be all that bad.<br /><br />Anyone could turn a great investment into a bad one in vintage cards! This is done by clicking the bid button too many times. I guess the Texas Cattlemen are correct - "bought right is half sold"???

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Posted By: <b>Richard LLOYD</b><p>I think the person who bought the "RUTH" card for 210000+<br />are NOT thinking investment..they are thinking what a COOL card..

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Posted By: <b>dan mckee</b><p>Richard are you nuts? I think alot of things are cool, houses, cars, boats, cards, women. But I don't just spend $210,000 on them. That was an investment purchase and probably a damn good one. Dan.

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Posted By: <b>Richard LLOYD</b><p>Thanks Dan... sorry, but do not aggree... if you are spending 210000 for a single cards then you are worth MILLIONS of dollars in investments and this is something you wanted!! why would some one worth millions buy a card for 210000 for investment... does not make sense to me.. it was bought bcause he/she can!! and loves cards ..

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Posted By: <b>Richard LLOYD</b><p>Thanks Dan... sorry, but do not aggree... if you are spending 210000 for a single cards then you are worth MILLIONS of dollars in investments and this is something you wanted!! why would some one worth millions buy a card for 210000 for investment... does not make sense to me.. it was bought bcause he/she can!! and loves cards ..

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Posted By: <b>dan mckee</b><p>I guess you have me on this one, as I do not have that much money and really can't say how one would feel buying that card for that much. I can say pop feels great knowing he got a whooping $1000.00 for one and let another go for $8000.00. Now those 2 would have been decent investments!

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Posted By: <b>Richard LLOYD</b><p>Thanks Dan... I just think the person who bought the card is not worried 10 years from now what the card is worth... I am guessing that the person who bought the card used his interest from his bank account to buy the card!! think about that!!

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Posted By: <b>dan mckee</b><p>I used my interest to buy my 1993 Cal Ripken refractor. Now I have to build up my interest again from scratch.

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Posted By: <b>PASJD</b><p>We are all just speculating unless we know the buyer, but I tend to agree with Richard, I think whoever plunked down a quarter million dollars for the card is not viewing it as an investment, i.e. that person did not make a rational decision to invest a quarter of a million in that card as opposed to other cards, or stocks, or antiques, or whatever. Now it may well turn out that even at that "insane" price the item will only appreciate, as the PSA 8 Wagner did. And the maxim that the rich get richer will once again be proven true. But I still think the subjective motivation was to own a unique card, not to invest.

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Posted By: <b>Bob D</b><p>One thing to keep in mind when "investing" in vintage cards is basic supply and demand. <br /><br />I think that both supply and demand will be affected significantly by the general aging of the population. Large numbers of people did not start collecting vintage cards till the late 70's/80's. Since then more and more people have entered the hobby, without a similar amount leaving the hobby, resulting in greater demand. Right now I'd venture a guess that a large number of collectors are in middle age, especially for vintage collectors.<br /><br />Over the next 10-30 years as these middle age collectors start selling off their collections for retirement or their heirs do so after they pass on; there will be 1) an increase in the number of vintage cards returning to the market and 2) less people looking to purchase those cards, unless the number of new younger collectors is large enough to compensate for the loss of the older generation. I don't see that happening.<br /><br />