Ohtani CARDS are Mostly UNDERVALUED
 

I’m sorry - but I will die on this hill

The greatest most complete ball player cards are mostly undervalued

This feels like “Brady cards” after 2004

Guy can’t pitch this year ? Ho Hum - gets a 40/40 here in a couple weeks

Wrong board, my dude. This is a pre-1945 board. Your topic belongs in the post-1980 section of the Postwar Cards area.

Jesus H. Christ, draw up legal papers then.

Nothing wrong with his post that would warrant your post. Chill out!

Crap. My bad…

Great response. BigfootIsReal could learn a thing or two from you.

Or, Ohtani is overrated. ;)




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Next Babe Ruth?

Or…next Pete Rose?

The hype machine needed to be turned way down for this guy. You just don't compare someone to Babe Ruth, plain and simple. The odds of living up to such expectations are practically nil. For me personally, all the hype turned me off from caring, but I don't follow modern baseball to begin with.

If the media had toned it down a few notches, far more people would be impressed by him. His stats are pretty nice. .667 PCT over 5 seasons? At this point, he's won exactly twice as many games as he's lost. When Babe Ruth is the bar you're expected to measure up to, you're basically left to twist in the wind if you can't prove you can walk on water.

I don’t follow him all that much, mostly due to east coast bias, but this year he’ll get his third league MVP award in four years. The year he didn’t win he came in second. Guy is a smooth and powerful wrecking crew. Even if you leave aside the fact that he can be a top line ace (which is a big thing to leave aside), he has to be considered the best or at least a top three player in the game over the last 4 years.

I don't mind the comparisons, because what Ohtani is doing in this era, relative to his peers, is incredible. We're in an age of intense specialization, where players have dietitians and strength coaches, and pitchers come out of academies that focus on spin rate, stride length, release point, etc. etc.

The fact that Ohtani is able to dominate both half-innings in that environment is incredible. I only wish he weren't doing it for the Dodgers.

If his cards are priced like he's a modern day Babe Ruth, he is not undervalued. If he continues on this path and hits 500+ HRs and end up in the HOF then yeah I suppose the cards could go up, but more likely he goes the way of Mike Trout cards, which I have heard are down massively from their covid highs, despite the guy being a guaranteed first ballot HOF'er.

Fully agree, and your thoughts came to me after I posted. What you wrote can be seen just by checking out his stats. I must say that I was impressed. That was the first time I've given him much of any thought.

I find it hard to argue that he's overrated as a player for all of the reasons that others have stated. I'd go as far to say that he's one of the top 3 most impressive athletes in the world in any sport, given what he's been able to do in a major market US professional league -- where the sheer amount of money at play ensures a super high level of competitiveness.

In terms of his cards, I find some of his Japanese rookie cards (like some of the short-printed 2013 BBMs and Calbees) to be most interesting. The US ones from 2018 onward are an exercise in artificial scarcity since he was already a hyped star in the making by the time he hit US shores.

There are a ton of artificially scarce cards that sell for $50,000+ every week in Goldin. Some of them for $150,000+.

LOL, yes but in a few years they will be in bargain bin boxes for $1. Not long ago Yasiel Puig was going to be the greatest ever and his rookie sold for 30k or 40k. PT Barnum would be proud of the pump and dumpers in our hobby.

Yasiel Puig didn't win two MVPs and isn't headed toward his third either.

A third MVP for Ohtani would put him in some pretty rarified air and I don't see a single bust among the players on that list except for Rodriguez and Bonds, who cheated, but still enjoy a strong following anyway.

Where's the dollar guy in this group of three time MVPs?

Barry Bonds,
Mike Trout,
Albert Pujols,
Alex Rodriguez,
Mike Schmidt,
Mickey Mantle,
Yogi Berra,
Roy Campanella

Yasiel will be on the Hall of Fame ballot soon, Ben. You may have to eat your words.:D

if ohtani's cards are undervalued...then babe ruth cards are a downright bargain.

You can't compare Ruth and Ohtani. Ruth didn't have the option to pitch and DH. If he had, who knows what he could have been. This year, all Ohtani is doing is hitting, he isn't playing in the field. He has an OPS+ of 174. Ruth's career OPS+ was 206 and he played defense too.

As for pitching, Ruth started 147 games, completed 107 games and threw 17 shutouts. Ohtani has started 86 and had 1 complete game and shutout. Ruth led the league in ERA, something Ohtani is yet to do. Ohtani has a better ERA+, but he only pitches 5 1/2 innings per start, unlike Ruth who was expected to go through the lineup more than twice.

Ohtani faces a higher quality player pool post-segregation. So there’s that.

And he is not the best hitter in baseball. That would be Aaron Judge (who also plays a solid outfield).

Ohtani and Judge probably the two best hitters in the game. Judge has never pitched to my knowledge.

A lot of board people didn't think all that much of Judge either.

Judge is awesome. His late start is what holds him back a little. Looks like he may catch and pass Trout in counting stats before it is over.:D

The gambling situation is admittedly a valid response to this, but seriously what is there not to like about Ohtani?

Looks like he has it wrapped up in a weak field this year, especially since Ketel Marte got hurt, but has a DH ever won MVP before?

Puig will never be on a HOF ballot unless he comes back to the majors for a couple more years.

At least for now, Soto is in that discussion IMO.

He's about to become the first 45/45 guy. How is that Pete Rose? Or anything even remotely close to Pete Rose? Rose's career high in HRs was 16 and 20 in SBs.

Judge is the best hitter in MLB now for sure. The only other players I'd put in that top echelon are Ohtani and Witt.

Undervalued? Seems to me that first ballot HOF entry is already 1000% baked into everything of his. Every single one of his 100 million cards printed is being treated like gold.

I don't think the comparisons to Babe Ruth will ever be in the realm of realistic but Ohtani is clearly playing well above expectations and is in a class of his own in the modern game. But there is no comparing to Ruth. Nobody will ever compare to Ruth.

Ruth hit 59 home runs but he also batted 378 that year. The year he hit 60 he batted 356. He's a career 342 hitter with 714 home runs. Nobody will ever be that good.

And now a card:

https://live.staticflickr.com/1876/2...f80f1b2cb1.jpg

Such a disgusting autograph. With his star power, I wish he'd put a little bit into his own brand by at least adding some recognizable style to it.

Jeter's autograph is not up my alley, either, but you can at least spot it from a mile away. Even Trout's "autograph" is recognizable to so many (can't even be bothered to lift the Sharpie up between a whopping two-lettered autograph). Everyone is so concerned about their "brand". Definitely an overused, nausea-inducing term, but a stylistic, if not even legible autograph should be a part of that. That thing shown above is just a scrawl that an angry toddler could convincingly emulate without even meaning to.

90 percent or more of modern players sign like this.

Doesn't make it right. And precisely why I quit collecting current players' autographs nearly 30 years ago.

...

The past was definitely beautiful in more ways than one...

It was a reference to their potential similarities off the field.

Betts and Witt too. Henderson knocking on the door.

Mookie Betts is a good player but he's no Aaron Judge. Even at his peak he is overshadowed:

Betts MVP season: 186 OPS+ - pretty incredible year BUT
Judge MVP season: 210 OPS+ and his OPS+ right now is even better at 226

Bobby Witt Jr, Aaron Judge and Soto could show him what they use gloves for. He's just a glorified DH and the MLB poster boy that the MLB Network shoeshine boys promote.

He's a great enough hitter that the Dodgers may not want to risk a career ending injury by letting him pitch again.

Witt is too young IMO to make any judgments yet.

69.1 WAR and he's only 31. That's more than a "good" player.

Sure but he's not Aaron Judge even on his best day and that was my point.

IF the Dodgers allow Ohtani to pitch again, I'll take Ohtani over Judge every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

As a complete player sure but my comment was in reference to who the best hitter in baseball is. I believe it is Judge.

Soto put up a 200 OPS+ in 2020 during a short season. I think you have to go all the way back to Frank Thomas in 1994 to find the last 200 OPS+ season and that was still a strike shortened season.

I am purposely excluding Bonds / McGwire / Sosa for reasons I think are clear.

You can have him! I'll take the judge!

World Series

Ohtani vs Judge

Ten AB's and I say Judge is good for a bloop single

Whether he's the best or not, if Ohtani isn't in your top-5 hitters in all of baseball anywhere on the planet I don't know what to say.

MVP caliber hitter. CY caliber pitcher. Unless one wants to pick on Ohtani's ability to pitch 200-ish IP as a pitcher, both stand strong.

Guy is about to hit 40+ homers for the 3rd time in 4 years. He's going to join the 40-40 club. He's recovering from Tommy John surgery while doing it. wtf...

3.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 481.2ip

It's easy to ignore his pitching based on injury, but based on results when healthy it isn't.

His biggest knock is he doesn't play the field and if he did, it would most likely be below average.

Long story short...I've never seen anyone like him in my lifetime with skills this elevated and I'm not sure anyone else here has, either.

He's not a rare player, he's not a generational player, he's only being compared to Ruth because who else are you going to compare a guy with his skill set to that played in 1900+? He's a very unique player.

Bagwell too. Bagwell was 213, Thomas was 212. Soto was 217. The last time someone was that good was Ted Williams (233) and Mickey Mantle (221) in 1957.

Ah, I didn't see Bagwell had also done it in the 1994 strike season.

I think that demonstrates just how good Judge is. This will be his second 200 OPS+ season.

Marcell Ozuna may win the NL Triple Crown this year and nobody seems to care. Certain players are always hyped the most by the press.

True. Nobody really batted an eye last year when Yandy Diaz hit 330 and led the AL either.

Ozuna is fantastic. He’s not Ohtani. WAR has Ohtani 1, 2, and then 1 in all of MLB the past three years. Fine for someone to think Judge is better but if anyone argues Ohtani has not been amazing they are treading into odd territory.

A few factors at play here:

1) Ozuna had just just two seasons with an OPS above .800 in his 20s, and one was during the short 2020 season.

2) He's not a good fielder, so all of his value comes from his bat.

3) He was terrible in 2021 and 2022. If this represents a breakout year, it will come at age 33.

Collectors just don't get excited about guys like that. Baseball Reference compares Ozuna's career stats to the likes of Carl Everett, Geoff Jenkins, Jason Bay, Vernon Wells, and Frank Thomas (no, not that Frank Thomas... the other one).

I agree 100%! The guy has had a couple good years and all of a sudden he is being compared to Babe Ruth? Cmon! And he is 30 years old and a 41 bWar. He wont catch Ruth.

Don't forget Chuck Knoblauch and Danny Heep

Grantland Rice over here waxing poetically on the guy that’a a two time MVP, on pace for the first 50/50 season in MLB history, made 80 starts over the previous three seasons with a sub 3.00 era, and is recovering from a torn UCL during said first 50/50 season. Truly marvelous.

It’s really something to behold. “But he doesn’t field.” I don’t know - just maybe the team that saw fit to make him the highest paid player of all time due to his pretty unprecedented hitting and pitching abilities decided to take advantage of the DH to keep him doing those things better than anyone else. Not a dumb move.

Both Judge and Ohtani are simply marvelous this year but as Sparky Anderson said after the 1976 WS when someone compared Thurman Munson to Johnny Bench:

"Munson is an outstanding player and he would hit.300 in the National League, but don’t ever embarrass anybody by comparing him to Johnny Bench."

Same for Ruth; don't embarrass Judge and Ohtani by comparing them to Ruth. Judge doesn't compare because he can't pitch. Ohtani can pitch but he's 38-19 with a 3.01 ERA and a lifetime batting average of .277 with 2900 ABs. OPS+ .989. Ruth went 94-46 with a 2.28 ERA, hit .342 and over 8900+ ABs, has a career OPS+ of 1.164. He had ten years with WAR above 10; Ohtani has had zero (best was 9.9). Judge and Ohtani are fantastic and great drawing cards and guys too (as far as we know) but comparing them to Ruth just isn't fair to them.

Oh, and a vintage card:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...-32%20Ruth.jpg

I don’t know too many people, if anyone, arguing that Ohtani is better than Ruth. I think many people would say he’s the best pitching and hitting phenom to play the game since Ruth. Hardly seems like a comparison that should offend even the staunchest supporter of pre-segregation baseball.

Well said!

I feel like we could have had the opportunity to see several more over the last century, but when do any kids get trained for such a future? It's just not done, is it? It's one or the other.

I don't think two way players are that rare as you're developing in middle school and high school. I knew lots of kids who pitched once a week and played the field the rest of it. It's the combination of being major league caliber at both skills that weeds them out. If you have a real future as a hitter, you might give up your fledging career as a mediocre pitcher.

He was being compared to Ruth before ever crossing the ocean. The first time I heard the comparison, I don't know if my groan was louder than my eye roll. All I could think of was Matsuzaka...just in the sense of a ridiculously highly-touted prospect who cost some team way too much money and failed miserably. I don't wish misfortune on any prospect, but it always feels like the greater the hype, the greater the flop. To hear this kid being compared to Babe Ruth...I just felt bad.

But, much to his credit, he's done well! For all the reasons we've discussed, he will never and could never be Babe Ruth and it was wrong of the media to make that comparison, both for Ohtani's sake and the sake of it being an impossibe, incorrect comparison.

Right. I think it's pretty common up through high school for a star pitcher to also be the team's best hitter, being the best athlete. Not much incentive to pursue both beyond that as it's likely a career shortening move and the odds of being better than average at both at that level must be astonishingly low.

Yes, I'd agree, but I also wonder if there are more potential two-way kids out there, but their coach feels it a better idea for them to stick to their forte? For example, why risk injury to one part of the body as a pitcher when the kid is fine in the field and at the plate? Or vice versa. Because two-way players have classically not been nurtured beyond their younger days, the trend continues? Just some honest thoughts about the subject.

Also, with Ohtani now here, you know the number of youngsters wanting to emulate him has just exploded. Perhaps there may be a coach or three out there more willing to give it a shot. I'm guessing so.

There are a ton of guys who went failed-pitcher to hitter or failed-hitter to pitcher.

I remember seeing Josh Hamilton hit mid-90s in highschool off the mound. If he couldn't hit he would have probably been a highly drafted pitcher.

Recently, Bryce Eldridge (SF, 2023) could have been a pitcher or hitter, SF chose hitter. Nolan McLean (NYM, 2023) is a 2-way player, but his hitting is worse than his pitching and will probably eventually just be a pitcher.

More players are getting the chance to be 2-way, but none are proving themselves past the low minors or even pre-assigned FLA/ARZ camps.

Just remember that Bob Uecker was once thought to be the next Babe Ruth.

Anyone who legally changes their name could be the next Babe Ruth. (Yes, I understand this adds nothing to the thread.)

Technically correct is the best kind of correct.

Getting back to the original premise, can the OP tell us a bit more about which Ohtani cards are undervalued, and why?

I suspect that for a lot of his issues, there is abundant supply. The exception being any with manufactured rarity.

So if there are 10 million of any given issue, what makes them undervalued?

He has done well is a bit of an understatement. He has done better than everyone or just about every one else in the league for 4 years might be more accurate.

A silly comparison.

Ippei Mizuhara is being sentenced to a possible 33 years in October. He has been consistently grilled by the FBI and this has been looked at six ways to Sunday. He had every opportunity on earth to give any information that would ease his charges and gets nothing for a large quantity of his life gone. He plead likely to avoid a longer sentence when he was dead to rights guilty.

Ohtani is guilty of being ignorant about his finances but dragging a conspiracy theory forever without a shred of evidence is tinfoil hat territory.

Guilty as charged. Allow me to don my headgear.

Fixed it for you...

Attachment 632079

Does he sign his name in japaneese as well..

He can sign in at least two languages, one more than many people.