Would you buy a 1933 Goudey Ruth Raw?
 

Title says it all, but I know Net54 loves specifics :D, so I will set the stage.

You are at a card show and a reputable dealer has a raw 1933 Goudey Ruth for sale. Card appears VG and does not look altered upon examination. Price is very fair for the card. Dealer says they will back up that it is real. Would you buy the card? Love to see your reason (s) on why you selected your poll answer.

I posed this exact question with some friends over the weekend, love to see Net54's take. I will give their takes in a few days.

Not to throw in a variable but if I'm at a large show and there's a TPG onsite, I'd be more inclined to make a deal dependent on the review for authenticity.

Absolutely and if I wasn't comfortable doing so I would stop collecting. I understand a new collector needing some help. A raw card has no more of a chance being altered than a slabbed card. In the real world it probably has a way less chance of being altered as they are altered to get into slabs.

For what a 1933 Goudey Ruth costs, I would not buy one raw. Sure, it could be ok. But chances are high that there is a reason why a card of that value is not in a holder.

He said it's bought from a reputable dealer that will back it up if it's "real." Unless, you weren't exactly quoting him?

I would clarify if it's altered or not real, will he give a refund?

if he says yes, then of course I would buy it. If he says no, then I wouldn't buy it. Otherwise, I voted yes...
.

I would not buy raw at those potential price points.

I am not skilled enough to judge what looks at different levels of the grading and would be comfortable it was a real card but unsure as I value as a result

I have more than enough trust in myself to buy a raw card.

I would pay a fair raw price if I was in person and can handle the card. If it's online, I would possibly lower an offer for risk of trimming or coloring dependent on what I see.

I don't think I'd buy one over the internet, but if I can examine the card in hand as in this scenario, I don't see why not.

I was under the impression that most of the trimmed pre-war cards were trimmed before any TPGs existed. Is that not correct?

Massive amounts of trimmed cards in PSA/SGC/etc. slabs have been outed as trimmed the last few years. Trimming did not stop with the advent of graders who seem unable or unwilling to detect a halfway decent trim job.

Kind of agree with Packs on this one.

I think far far more have been trimmed post TPG. 30 plus years and counting, and God only knows how many of these scumbags (I mean leading hobby figures) are still out there every day.

The greater the profit and the easier the profit is made, the more fraud there will be. I see no reason to think fraud is not an all time high in the hobby the last few years with how easy it is to do and how immensely high the returns are. We are probably at many, many multiples of 1990 fraud levels in terms of real dollars, inflation adjusted dollars, and quantity of incidents but I don’t have data to prove that.

I would have no hesitation to buy it without TPG assurances under the scenario described. I would not make the purchase, because nowadays I would not be able to afford it, even at a very reasonable price.

Brian (I bought my 2 piece 1933 Goudey Ruth in a group lot back in the day, and I valued its share of the purchase cost at the lowest possible 3 digit number)

Generally, no. Although a graded card can be undetected altered, at least its in a slab and can easily be sold if you might be suspicious. But a raw, if it comes back un-slabable, what are you going to do now ?

I believe this has a lot to do with why so many do not care about card alterations. If they find out their graded card is altered they can still easily pass it on to the next graded card collector/investor. Kinda like the modern game of hot potato with prospects.

Definitely easier to sell the problem to someone else and pass it along to the next sucker if it’s graded. I would hope people wouldn’t do that, but of course they will.

I would absolutely buy a raw card under the same conditions I would buy a slabbed card. Is the seller reputable? Will he refund money if it turns out something is wrong with the card? etc.
What I would not do is pay based upon some theoretical/made up grade. Just cause it looks like a 5, doesn't mean it will grade a 5.
Also, I would be much more inclined to buy a card raw in person, unless I knew the person or knew of their reputation. There are many on this board i would have no problem buying something raw from.

33 Goudey Ruth
 

Yes, I'd buy raw at a show as I'd trust myself to evaluate properly-

Trent King

I put maybe. If I get to hold it and examine it, then yes. If it's based on scans, then probably not.

I voted yes.

I have no problems buying raw period. Big ticket items in person viewing is a must, small time online browsing is ok. We should be well educated and evolved by now to spot all major imperfections, alterations, fakes etc. and after all that if your still pressed to get it graded just submit it… next

I trust my own judgement more than that of the opinion sellers, and I wouldn't charge myself as much.

Sadly The consensus by the market movers, the ones who set the going market price bidding in auctions seems to be once the card is in a PSA or SGC Holder with a number grade It doesn’t matter what has been done to the card. It’s in a holder now blessed by PSA or SGC and is unaltered and authentic with a number grade. It is now highly liquid and has a greater resale value now and down the road.

Yes, as I never tire of saying, the flip is now the commodity.

I would get a background on the card. How it was obtained by the dealer. I most likely would buy it raw, with a thorough review of the card. I'm sure they would back it up for being real, but altered is a different story, so I would really review the card before buying.

That's exactly what it is…

Not only would I, I did so. Gehrig too. And Foxx.

I once bought a raw 1933 Sport Kings Babe Ruth off eBay, paid $500 for it and it graded a 2 by PSA.. this was about 20 years ago or so.

now days, I would probably still buy raw off eBay due to the authenticity guarantee.

Not directed at anyone in particular, but I would bet at least some of you would not catch some of the more expert alterations that top of the profession card doctors are capable of.

I won an ungraded ‘33 Gehrig #92 in an eBay auction with a 99 cent starting bid for sub $800 in 2007 or 2008. It is now in a PSA 5 holder in my safe deposit box. But it’s a different world. So I voted maybe.

Not during winter

yes

I did exactly that
 

At the Philly show last year. I asked the dealer to guarantee the card would get a number grade (Not an "Authentic"), NOT specifying or asking for a guarantee of any particular number. He agreed and I purchased the card. It ended up getting a 2.5 - the best I thought possible when buying it!

+1 (in terms of altered cards residing in numbered slabs).

Also... Why are people putting so much stock in TPGs? Do they not pay attention, or are they so insecure that they need someone else to tell them what their own eyes should easily perceive?

Take this 1956 Jackie Card with its mangled top border and multiple creases. Does anyone really think this card is a "5.5"? I prefer to trust my own judgement...

https://www.ebay.com/itm/28583419175...Bk9SR7LIgc3lYw

I answered yes based on the conditions of the sale. And as was stated a few posts above, I think most of us think we are great at catching alterations but I would wager (in honor of snowman) that most who think they can spot alterations would not do well on a grading test.

Only if I was drunk, drugged and blindfolded.

1933 Goudeys
 

I'm selling my collection of the 239 card set.I put it together
in the early 90s.Then I got very busy at work,and personal
problems.
So,I put it away until now.Grading was not in the picture?
We looped them,held them,and inspected them.

I don’t collect Goudey; however, tweak the original question slightly and I’d feel comfortable buying raw. A T206 Matty, Cobb, or WaJo? Yes, I’d buy it ungraded in person.

Knew it would be an old label before looking.

Lawyers don't represent themselves despite their grasp of law. It's because you might be seeing what you want to see.

I would definitely buy a raw Goudey Ruth as I've handled them over the years. I bought a collection a few years back that had a Goudey and two Sport Kings Ruth cards in it along with a bunch of other Goudeys.

Sure.

Interesting this would come up. I bought a lot of raw Diamond Stars off another group and when they came, they were all considerably short/thin compared to the rest of my set. I am aware of the variation in National Chicle, but was uncomfortable with them. The seller was good with the refund. He sold them to someone else and they all graded (none were of any notable value) and he sent me a note that they weren't trimmed. I am very sure they were not only because of the smallness but the borders seemed a bit wavy to me. It worked out ok for both of us as I would have been uncomfortable with them in my set (which I intend to keep the commons raw).

"We stand by the grade" :confused:

Yup. That guarantee doesn't mean much when they control the reviews.

So as of now, its 52 percent yes, 28 percent no, and 18 percent maybe.

When I posed this topic to my circle of 10 friends, it was 80 percent No and 20 percent yes. The yeses mostly gave answers like above.

The Nos said three things:

1. Concern over why a dealer would sell a 5k plus card raw.
2. No reason to buy. There are plenty of graded ones out there already.
3. Basically, not worth the risk.

FYI, I am in the Yes camp. I would have qualms purchasing the card in this scenario.

IMO people here are either overrating their own abilities or underestimating card doctors or both. There are countless altered cards now in slabs, and it's not just incompetence or corruption.

Peter, concur. But do you feel about the grading companies' ability to distinguish between a real and a fake 1933 Goudey Ruth?

Assuming their best graders are involved and they're acting in good faith? I think they'd do pretty well but some of the elite card doctors might be able to fool them sometimes. I assume you mean altered, not fake as in counterfeit.

No, the latter, fake as in counterfeit.

I have to assume they could spot a fake, unless technology is already that good that they can't, in which case this hobby is doomed.

May I ask what technology? Why wouldn't the same exact easily available technology that made them to begin with be used again? Why would there need to be different technology?

Probably because that technology no longer exists or would be too cumbersome to reproduce that it's not viable.

How would you replicate the stock? Not sure it would be that simple to replicate the cuts either.

The stock could be the toughest part of a Goudey to try to counterfeit. But I am pretty sure that Goudey's in 1933 and 1934 were printed by silkscreen, assuming you could match the colors the silk screening process is very easily replicated.

How would you avoid issues like fluorescence? You'd have to find period materials and use period techniques to produce a period card. I don't think it's really possible to do that or the work it would take to replicate these things would not be viable when you factored in time, cost, and likelihood that it would work.

There are some very good alterations. If presented 500 cards, 100 of which were doctored by someone decent at it, I am positive I would not correctly identify a good number of them.

PSA has commercialized an appeal to authority - they are selling little but their (extremely dubious) authority. If you are going to do that, you need to be able to correctly judge what you are selling your authority on. Even worse, PSA is not just getting tricked by the best of carefully done alterations - they let tons get by that a 2 second glance can quickly tell a viewer is altered.

They generally are able to identify fakes in most issues, with some slip-ups. By and large there are few issues with convincing fakes extant.

LOL, same with the cuts. Just use the same readily available equipment they used the first time.

The other is also very easy to obtain but I won't post it on an open forum.:) I believe someone once told me "it is just paper".

It isn't quite there yet, but it absolutely will be someday. And yes, that is when the hobby as we know it ceases to exist.

I really don't think that would work. It would be 100 year old paper used today. How could you realistically expect the paper to even be useable or to maintain the same characteristics as it did when it was brand new in 1933?

We've all seen people try to forge vintage signatures using vintage ink and vintage paper. It never works because the paper isn't new anymore and it doesn't absorb the ink the same way. It's typically pretty obvious.

LOL yes I said that with regard to alterations. I could be wrong, but I don't think it's that easy to actually replicate the stock from the vintage issues.

Yup. This is the time bomb waiting to happen.

I won't give details but you are extremely uninformed on the subject. They counterfeit extremely high end entire books that are supposed to be hundreds of years old that pass all the expert reviews. PBS had a great special on the subject. I posted a link when it was first aired but it wasn't too popular on here.

Uninformed about what? Because you're talking about many different things at once. Reproducing a block printed book and reproducing a layered and multi-colored baseball card are two different things.

And anyone will tell you that old paper and new ink always look different than old paper and old ink. It's one of the first things you look for when someone is trying to sell you a cut. It's also why pencil is typically avoided. It doesn't have the same tell-tale characteristics as ink.

Yes I know, simple baseball cards would be so much easier.

If a crime is

1) highly profitable

2) easily or readily done

3) unlikely to be seriously punished

Then I would think there would be an awful lot of it. Conditions 1 and 3 are already met in the hobby. People are making and trying to sell fakes now, without any real punishment whatsoever for the fraud as the authorities are not interested in prosecuting these crimes, these fakes are just poorly done and obvious. That it is highly profitable to make undetectable or nearly undetectable fakes is obvious. So, if condition 2 is also met and it is pragmatically doable to make these, where are they?

It is not that it can't be easily done. It is having access to the correct stuff to do it along with also being a shady person. Now that is a rare combo. The crap counterfeits you see now are not being made on original type equipment.

Isn’t that like saying you could print your own money as long as you have the molds, same materials and equipment as the mint?

Would you buy a 1933 Goudey Ruth Raw?
 

So once we’re at the point where the paper stock and printing is a perfect replica (which will never happen) do the cards need to display 90+ years of authentic looking wear or does everyone just swoon over all these new-to-the-hobby 8s and 9s?

That nobody has managed to do this and make the many many millions of dollars it would net strongly suggests it cannot be easily or readily or pragmatically done. People will and often do infinitely worse for much lower gains. I’ve yet to see any evidence that there are any real ethics in this hobby and that the dirtbags abounding wouldn’t do this because they aren’t shady enough :)

I suspect they'll swoon as they do now over the trimmed ones.

Sure, in person so I can evaluate it. Which is why my go bag for shows has a 30x loupe, 100x lit microscope, black light and strong flashlight.

People print money every single day. I hear that printing $10 is the least likely way to get you caught. Sadly even that doesn't always work or so I have heard.;)

Cards are nothing but simple paper and ink. Take any picture to any real print shop and they can make as many exact copies on any type of paper or card stock you want. But yes baseball cards are magic and somehow special.:eek::rolleyes::D

I doubt it would be impossible but it might not be easy to fake the uneven patina on pre war cards.
And don't be fooling around with the 144....(a 1 piece instead of a 2 piece, shown above)

.

As far as an outright fake goes, I believe it's possible to make one that will pass the grading companies.

There were few changes in lithography between about 1920 and the late 1980's. The sort of equipment the shop I worked for had is out of date for modern production printing but is readily available. A smallish press can be had for a couple thousand, and the other stuff is also available, camera, plate maker, cutter. Light tables are easy to make.

The stock wouldn't be that hard, I haven't looked for it, but it should be available.
Inks have changed, but the art lithography market has a lot of available inks.

Now, the question of "undetectable" really depends on who is doing the detecting and how seriously they look at things.

The angle of the cut may be different between cutters. I'll have to give it some thought, but older machines had a slightly different path for the blade. So that may be detectable.
Paper that won't react to UV is still made, almost all acid free paper doesn't include brighteners. It has a lot that's wrong, but comic book backing boards are not reactive to UV.
So with some knowledge and some looking, that gets you nearly all the way there.

Would modern stuff like inks and paper stand up to something like and XRF machine? Probably not. Unless you really really did some research to get as close as possible.

Is PSA or any other commercial TPG going to use one? No, not for the forseeable future.

I saw a fake 51 Mantle over 40 years ago. Shopped around to several dealers, very nice looking card. My local shop had it and just handed it to me and asked what I thought.
After looking at it for a few minutes "Very nice looking card, too bad it's fake"
"OK, why is it fake"
"I can't put my finger on why, but it just is."
"That's what we think, and the other 5 dealers who have seen it"

That was probably 81? While I was either still at the printers or had just left for college. Maybe 82.
I think today I could figure out the why. I'm not sure PSA could, and would bet that card eventually ended up in a very high grade slab.

I voted yes. with the card in hand I'd be confident I could tell a lot about it.

To look at it another way, would you buy an ungraded Goudey common? Other than having Ruth instead of a benchwarmer, and a much bigger price tag, there is really no difference.

Does anyone have an example of a convincing reprint they could show? There are several people who have suggested you could print a convincing 1933 Goudey today. Are there any examples? Seems like something somebody would have found worthwhile.

They’ve declined to show any of these examples so far. Let’s see them guys, very easy way to prove your point.

It's just not ringing true with me. People suggesting this are reducing the issue to this relatively simple and rudimentary process that anyone can follow in X easy steps.

Where are the cards?

That’s because it is not true, it’s just hobby folklore. An old wives tale that has circulated in some form or other for decades. From the ‘perfect counterfeit’’s of T cards supposedly made in the 50’s or 60’s using original equipment or the version in the 70’s and 80’s featuring unnamed dealers and movers faking many of the big finds (though never specified which finds) of vintage material to more modern versions like the Black Swamp fakes story to todays version of how some also anonymous counterfeiters are or readily can make undetectable fakes.

Nobody in any of these alleged counterfeit groups can ever be given a name. No place, nothing one can possibly fact check or validate. No examples can ever be shown. I have been waiting most of my life for somebody to produce some evidence. It has never happened, because it is not true.

We very well may one day have something like this actually happen, but pretty much every hobby has false tales like this of perfect fakes or crimes or very dramatic events that are always vague, have no evidentiary basis or source, and are just imaginary gossip people made up or talked about and over time get to be stated as if the possibilities are actually true. An evidentiary basis is so much less interesting than gossip, and so the gossip just keeps going stated as if it is true. People by and large believe whatever they like to believe, disconnected from what evidence there is to actually support the notion.

One person said they would have no qualms with purchasing raw cards. But they also cast doubt on what I said about it being pretty difficult or impossible to reprint an authentic Goudey card today. If you believed it was possible to print a convincing Goudey today, I would think you'd be more reserved about purchasing raw cards.