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Poll: Final Hammer Price - 1914 BN Babe Ruth vs the 1952 Rosen Topps Mantle
REA will be auctioning a 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth in their upcoming auction: https://robertedwardauctions.com/baltimore-news-ruth
What do you think the final hammer price will be compared to the 1952 Rosen Topps Mantle, which sold for $12.6 million in Heritage in August 2022: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ttering-record Babe sells for more, less, or roughly the same? |
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I guess decimal points are important. |
I think it sells for more. The inflated grade from SGC will help.
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I think the rarity of the card, especially compared to 52T Mantle, should contribute to a higher price. |
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It will be interesting for sure. |
I think and hope it sells for more.
Estimate $15 million Both cards iconic but so many Mantles at all grade levels and the difference from the 7’s on up is so little and so few Ruth. I am also biased as a Ruth collector. But so many Mantles both in selection and quantity out there. And the ‘52 though amazing looking and considered iconic it is his second year card. Baltimore news 1914 Wow |
i think the ruth will sell similarly to the mantle...in light of the timing...values are down a little since the mantle sale.
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Skin in the game
These threads about the price of cards that the overwhelming majority of us can never bid on or afford should be coded.
If you have ever purchased a card for more than $100,000.00 post your comment in green. If you haven’t ever purchased such a card, then post you opinion in red. If you don’t know how to change the color of your post, I’m not interested in your opinion either. Those who are willing to have skin in the game matter or they are fools. |
I'm not really convinced that the general cardboard market has an impact here. Does anyone really think that the bidders will set their max bid based on how the general cardboard market has been trending lately? I'm not seeing it.
This seems like a relatively straightforward competition. A crazy rare item, (arguably?) a rookie card, of the game's most well-known player. Get all the biggest fat cats from our world with virtually limitless resources together and they start bidding. It's anyone's guess when they will stop. Given all of the advertising around this auction, it's not like a serious potential bidder is going to miss it. So it's really just a question of how high the last 2 bidders are willing to go, and when does the underbidder finally tap out? The final price will likely boil down to psychology and how emboldened that underbidder is feeling at the moment. There are theories around here that crazy rich people are disciplined and not susceptible to the same sorts of emotions and passions as us commoners. But I would argue they're just as human as the rest of us. Trouble with the wife (or mistress), a drop in their company's stock price, a lawsuit that just took a turn for the worse, and the bidder is likely to be just a little less determined. But a few of them will go nuts because they decide they can't live without this piece. Since their bank account balance starts with a B, they won't be constrained by petty resource limitations like us mortals. Personally, given how infrequently these come onto the market in any condition, I'm taking the over. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $20M, and it might even blow that away. |
My guess: $17,750,000
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It’s a rounding error for the crazy rich with a MUCH steeper upside by acquiring. Imagine just 2 of the many Fortune 500 CEOs who wants this on display at their HQ or personal collection. Imagine the international investor or royal with endless capital. Imagine 1 of hundreds of PE firms clamoring for this. Imagine a loaded movie star with power and influence? The question isn’t how much will this go for, but will this or a PSA 10 1952 Topps Mick be the first $100MM card we witness in our lifetimes? |
An hour in and it's already at $4.5 million.
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Bidding increments are at $250K? Won’t take long to get to $10M+… |
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Fair enough, but not sure last time this was offered to the public, so with the recent crazy run up and proliferation of cards as an asset mindset, unlike Wagner T206 with 60+ copies typically offered 1 up annually, this Ruth is much more scarce and of a player with better public name id, so poised to smash records.
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I know there have been times when we withhold bidding on cards we know one of our hobby friends is chasing. I hereby announce that this is one of those times, and I want my dear friends here to know that I will not be bidding on either the Mantle or Ruth cards, so you may bid away knowing that I am not running up your costs.
You're welcome. |
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My guess is that one of the fat cats that has a PSA 10 52T Mantle will decide they can’t live without this card and will go nuts. Why now? They don’t come along every day. There are a few others, but you might have to wait a while for another to come along. And these buyers are probably not all that young. So they might not get too many more bites at this apple. Also, $20M ain’t what it used to be. |
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Kendrick almost won the World Series. He should be spending that money on Blake Snell or Juan Soto.
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I wonder what the likelihood is that a major serious bidder may actually represent a group of investors collectively going in on this card, or even a corporation.
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For a big corporation, they've got more important things to do than fuss with baseball cards. They go around disclosing that they spent 8 figures on a baseball card and every shareholder will jump on a suit for going beyond the corporate mandate to dabble in nonsense. And if we're talking about a smaller corporation, then why wouldn't the owner just buy it for themselves? I guess you could have a group. But I think a lot of that has died down with the collapse of a lot of the fractional ownership platforms. Obviously someone could put together their own little club deal with their buddies. But I would wonder why they would go to all that trouble. I suppose anything is possible, but these seem less likely to me. |
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Tay-Tay could easily by this ,
Christmas present for uncle Travvy :rolleyes: |
Next time I submit to SGC, I'm going to ask Brent Martin if they can re-grade a few of my cards on the "Baltimore News" curve. I could turn a few of those 1s into 5s.
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Cool, hope ya win it :) |
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A reasonable person would think that SGC just blatantly juicing the grade on any marquee card they get would start to hurt them and their reputation, but as it's the card hobby this is a feature instead of a problem.
The Mantle was not a 9.5, and this ain't a 3. Really awesome cards, it doesn't get much cooler than this Ruth. I'm sure whoever the new owner ends up being won't care the slab they dropped $10M for is a lie. |
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I think the Ruth card at REA will sell for more, but I will be honest in that I don't even really even understand why a '52 Topps Mantle (even a PSA 10) would sell for anything close to Babe Ruth's first card with a population of less than a dozen.
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I haven't seen all the other BN Ruths, but I suspect this decision was similar. Placed on the old grading scale. Had it gone to PSA, it probably gets a 1 despite being nicer than one already slabbed as a 2. |
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Yes, I’m sure it was the “right to move make” for the mone, that is the point.. Corruption is a feature, not a problem. It’s blatantly dishonest. A card with staining like that has never before been considered to be in 9.5 or in 9 condition. If I submitted a Dale Coogan in the same condition I would not get a 9 or a 9.5. If I submitted a common T206 in the same exact condition as this Ruth it would not get a 3. I would be lucky to get a 1.5. This whole show is a farce, grading is not to produce an accurate grade it’s to suit the market interests of a select group. |
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This is why you shouldn't move goalposts. |
Some goalpost movement is inevitable as the hobby changes, but moving them to the 50 yard line as they seem to have done is ridiculous.
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SGC should be ashamed at giving the BN Babe a 3, particularly with their supposed new grading standards. IMO it should be a 1.5, maybe a 2 on a sunny day. Me thinks there were serious political forces at play when Ruth was in the grading room.
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Buy the card not the grade
But someone with the money will be buying the Card with that grade. And super rare but a 3 will sell more than a lower grade on that same exact card slab |
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https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...ii.htm#ab_006) https://collectable.com/offerings/ba...sgc-3-buy-out/ |
I am surprised at the mainstream attention. There was even an article in The NY Times about it
As an aside I was looking for the Go Fund Me Page for Leon so he can purchase it and put it in the Net54 Museum but I did not see it |
From what I heard, the owner sold a approx 10% interest to the Collectible group and had an option to buy back. It was a $6mm valuation. It happened before Collectible went down.
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I'm thinking Steve Cohen will want to buy it & bring it to display in New York.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Cohen_(businessman) |
5.5 million as of Monday, November 27. Not much increase since the first day of bidding.
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5.75 million as of 1100 EST on Sunday.
I am surprised that there wasn’t movement yesterday. Feeling more and more confident that this card will go under the Rosen mantle. |
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Babe card
At the risk of being viewed as a heretic, I’ll go back to the actual topic (I know, I know, such a horrible thing)…Card sits at 5.75 million with no bids since the 29th of November. I still think it tops the Mick:). Trent King
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Many items in this auctions raced to fast strong starts that thought were already at strong full market value. So I wondering if many of them will pop off the charts and just stay as is since it reached its value already Will be interesting to see on the Ruth and other cards |
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30 minutes until extended, we shall see. |
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Another interesting question worth pondering is what would the SGC 9.5 Mantle sell for today if it were on the block?
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Welp!
$7.2M, with the juice. The crash is here!! |
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I don't think it's a sign of a crash - the estimate of over $10m never made sense to me. Prices are down from 21/22 and the seller paid $6m supposedly to buy it back in 2021. $7.2m isn't bad. Not sure why it would have sold for 2x a price when cards were peak covid heights...
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I thought that not selling the other BN lots was an odd choice (high reserves not met). It seems unlikely that they'll get more in an auction without the star attraction to carry them along. The reserve does help to explain why they were sold in a lot, I think. The seller was not prepared to sell the non-Ruths for what they saw as "low" final bids.
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While $7.2mm is much less than all the hype, it is a very solid price and a solid profit compared to what it was acquired for not too long ago. Also, I believe this exact card was recently available for sale on (the artist formally known as) Collectible for $8mm, and it never sold. If correct, I am not surprised that it sold for south of $8mm.
I wish it had gone for a zillion, billion million dollars. But $7.2mm is a very solid result in the real world. |
Does anyone think the cards will show up as individual lots in a future REA (or other auction)? And will average less than the $9K per card that they ended up at? I am leaning in this direction at the moment.
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