Questions About "Modern" Cards
 

1) Is anyone trying to collect sets of anything "modern," as in post-1980 or so?
2) If we say that cards at the National were 75% modern as opposed to vintage, to pick a number, what are they? Insert cards from the 90s onward, rookie cards of modern and current stars, etc.?
3) Pretty much by definition, it strikes me that anything scarce in the modern category is a result of artificial rarity created by the manufacturers. Is this what all these dealers and flippers are at the National and other shows selling and in search of? Are there any actual collectors of these cards to speak of?
Any other observations re the modern side of the hobby would be helpful for my understanding of it, and welcome. Thank you.

I don't collect modern cards, but there are obviously player collectors out there who legit are trying to collect as many cards of a player as possible. The popular guys like Lebron, Curry, Mahomes, etc, there are people who genuinely want to collect their stuff, especially the rare/auto'ed stuff. Lots of people just treat modern cards as assets to flip short term to recognize a profit. And the hobby needs liquidity from people like that, so I never view it as a bad thing.

This is essentially the Junk Wax 2.0 era now, with regard to base cards

Thanks. I have never thought of anything, short of fraud, as good or bad in the hobby, just trying to understand it. Couple of questions from your answer: please explain how liquidity (meaning cash sloshing around, I assume) benefits the hobby outside of the modern sector--is it that some of that cash will move into other sectors?; what are base cards, and what happened during the first junk wax era, which I take to be the late 80s and 90s? Any other insights will be welcomed.

Several nights this week I watched the modern folks have trade night at Loews in their big lobby and outside the conference rooms. There were hundreds of people each night, and they were there starting around dinner time until past midnight.

I can't say that I understood exactly what they were doing or looking for, but a few observations:

• It was nice to see the during camaraderie across the group -- no matter what their card motives (collecting vs flipping) -- people of all ages and backgrounds were interacting in a respectful way. Many of them were just sitting around talking and hanging out which was great.
  
• I saw a few vintage cards in the mix... Red Cobb, Aaron, Robinson... Even a couple 52 Mantles just on the table or carpet floor where the younger folks were hanging out.
  
• If only three to five percent of modern folks filter down into vintage in the coming years, I wouldn't be surprised if that's enough to sustain the vintage market.

Also, while modern has manufactured scarcity, the players are relatable and accessible for the kids. I realized how the cards line up with pre-war:
In T206, Piedmont and Sweet Cap are the "base set". American Beauty, Polar Bear, Cycle, etc are the Refractors, and Broad Leaf and Drum are the 1/1 Superfractors.

Steve

What I mean by liquidity is the consistent flow of cards in the hobby. Without people flipping and selling cards, you'd have a lot less supply on the market, making it tougher to find cards you are looking for.

Base cards are non-serial numbered cards. For example, cards 1-600 in a Topps set of cards. Those cards are not serial numbered, and each card has the same quantity printed, and Topps/Panini have been printing TONs of them, so they are not in any way rare.

Yes, the first junk wax era was the late 80s-early 90s. Topps/Donruss/Fleer/Upper Deck printed an insane amount of product as interest in the hobby ramped up. They printed so many of them that the cards basically lost all their value. A similar thing is happening now with Topps/Panini base sets, where they are printing insane quantities of the base cards, and then adding tons of different inserts/parallels into every set they release, which is diluting the market. Rookies no longer have 1 or 2 cards, they end up with 100+ cards in different colors/sets.

This morning, I was wondering the same show split modern vs vintage (75/25, 80/20, 50/50)?

Hi Hank. I don't collect modern sets, but I collect modern singles. In modern, Topps flagship is called "paper" versus Chrome. You have base cards, short prints, super short prints, parallels, inserts, and insert parallels.

You are asking about scarcity: manufactured vs natural. If you wanted to collect natural scarcity in the modern market you would want to collect SP and SSP. These do not come in parallel form. They are very popular, but they don't seem to command the prices of manufactured scarcity. Even non-rookie SP and SSP are highly collectable for stars.

I'm pretty sure you understand the parallels that are numbered /99, /76, /50, and etc. Today, set collectors have been replaced by "Rainbow" collectors. These collectors want to get all the border combinations for a certain player. Rainbow collectors have two choices - paper vs chrome. Paper rainbows cost less. Chrome rainbows cost more.

I don't collect rainbows because I don't have that kind of money. I prefer to get cards in just a couple parallels. I like Xfractors, and I like the new Mega Box refractors sometimes called Silver Pack. If you are collecting the rainbow, anything /99 or less is desirable. Some collectors I know start at /50 or less for what they collect.

Let's look at 1993 Topps Derek Jeter. This existed before Topps Chrome. However, it's a nice introduction to parallels. You have the base paper RC, and then you have four parallels: Topps Gold, Inaugural Rockies Set, and Inaugural Marlins Set, and Topps Mini.

In 1996, Derek Jeter's rookie year coincided with the release of 1996 Topps Chrome. However, Topps did not release Topps Gold parallels that year. So in 1996 you have his base paper card, his base chrome card, and a Chrome refractor.

By the late 1990s, Topps Chrome began to expand their refractor parallels into Gold and Black. And in 2001, Topps brought back the paper Topps Gold parallel. This coincided with the rookie season of Ichiro and Pujols, and those parallels are expensive. By 2002, Topps had introduced the Xfractor. The 2002 Bowman Chrome Xfractor of Joey Votto is the big ticket item from that year. I wish I had one! And the Bowman Chrome gold signature parallel is another card that brings big bucks. I'm not sure gold signature is still around - I don't collect Bowman prospects.

Bowman is the real set where collectors flip and make money. When people complain about flippers, they make their most money with Bowman First prospect cards. This is where people spend $100k for an unproven prospect.

1) Yes, lots of people build sets. There's just also tons of base and so it isn't expensive or a challenge.

3) I mean, this is almost always the case in all of hobby history. Scarcity is a reflection of print run; they didn't make many Drum backs for some reason, they don't make many gold superfractor's. Now they short print the inserts to produce a chase factor, but that's been the case since the early 90's in most sets, and dates back much further (many vintage sets have particular cards within it shorted). People actually collect inserts.

Wow, Tim, what a fabulous tutorial, and directly to the heart of my questions. I have to wonder how many of those cards the "Becketteer" kids of the 90s left on the floor as they tore through packs looking to extract the special cards might be worth something today or some day, as it seems as though those sets, deemed worthless at the time due to the assumption that an unlimited number of them would be put in protective holders without so much as being touched by human hands, are and will be increasingly collected up by fans of those generations. Scarcity is scarcity, no matter the reason, and as long as there is demand for those, they will get collected up and become more and more scarce and valuable. I find it so cool to find out that succeeding generations to mine aren't just in it for the money, but are instead true fans of the players, teams, sports, etc., they love, and those with the collecting gene are continuing the traditions of the hobby pretty much unabated and unchanged. What us old farts used to refer to derisively as "shiny stuff" just turns out to be the cards of heroes of the newer generations, not a bit different from the cards of our heroes. Not sure why I'm so surprised by this, but it's great to see. And the assumption seems to be that a substantial percentage of these collectors will at some point move into vintage as well, although I'm not sure why that even has to be part of the equation for the hobby to continue on in great health. That might just be showing a bias on the part of us older guys with vintage collections, and one that turns out to have little basis in fact. I don't know why a kid who grew up in the 90s should care about Mickey Mantle, Carl Hubbell, or Walter Johnson cards. And when they start having the disposable income to dip into the older markets, maybe they will, maybe they won't, time will tell. Anyway, thanks again, Tim, you've really opened my eyes to the intricacies of the modern hobby, and I appreciate it.

This morning over coffee I was checking ebay.

My first search - Walter Johnson both PSA & SGC
2nd search - Mathewson PSA & SGC
3rd search - Andrew Abbott "Newly listed" (this kid has game, brought up in June with the Reds, so much fun to follow a rookie pitcher, I am impressed!)
4th search - Derrick Henry

I contacted a seller, we made a deal on a sweet looking Derrick Henry card with a great looking action shot, very nice PSA 10 card.

Collect what you like, pre war, vintage, modern, ultra modern. It's all good. With the modern, there is so much out there, refractors, parallels, serial #, inserts, etc. Honestly, I find it fun to check out the new stuff just as much as the oldies. Plus it's a lot cheaper, haha. Keeps me in the collecting game.

For some years now I've been curious what will happen when the hobby boom kids grow up and reach that "re-enter the hobby for nostalgia" stage and have disposable income.

Everyone is always quick to point out how much product was produced back in that time frame but they never mention how horribly ineffectual those cards have been stored these past 30 years and how we're going to see the largest influx of adult collectors re-entering the hobby than ever before.

What is going to happen when that occurs? Might be time to buy a Greg Maddux RC.

Arthur

I don't collect modern sets but I enjoy modern cards and modern players.

It was made clear in Chicago that “modern” to me means something very different than it does to “modern” collectors. I’ve always wanted that Score card of Bo Jackson with the bat on his shoulders. I coveted that card as a kid but have never owned one. It’s not expensive or rare, it has just seemed to elude me for decades. Anyway, I asked a couple dealers with shiny stuff and they both said the same thing… “I don’t do vintage.” I’m only 44, but you know you’re getting old when your modern is someone else’s vintage. :)

Hank...

Great topic. I think about the part highlighted in bold all the time. But then I set myself at ease by realizing that our generation never saw Cobb, Lajoie, Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Greenberg or even Joe DiMaggio play. Not to mention the really early guys like Ewing, Ward, Anson, Cy Young, etc. But we still respect and value their cards to the utmost extent. We may have grown up idolizing Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Clemente and Bench, but you naturally branch out as your hobby knowledge evolves.

I think that same thing will occur with future generations of collectors. Perhaps in a different way, but there will always be people out there who value and revere baseball's rich history just like we do (even if the player's image appears on dull paper vs, chrome!)

Even tho I primarily collect 1955 Topps Baseball and T206s - I have always had a soft spot for :

1980 Topps Baseball
1983-84 Donruss Baseball
1987 Donruss Baseball

One corner of my collection is rookie cards of the top 50 players from each sport, so occasionally a current player will move onto that list, and then I'll add one of his cards. I added Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler earlier this year to my NBA group and just picked up Max Scherzer in the past month. I prefer the base/"paper" card just for consistency's sake to go along with my 1969 Topps Alcindor, 1958 Topps Jim Brown, 1954 Topps Aaron, etc. I have very little interest in the other cards from any of these sets but will occasionally buy a shiny autographed modern card of a prospect I particularly like.

That's the truth. Kind of like the music you grew up listening to now being played on the "classic" radio station.

I think what really drove it home for me was a group discussion online a couple of years ago about what was the first episode of The Simpsons that aired after you were born.

I buy cards that appeal to me aesthetically even if they are junk otherwise.

Junk wax has its place. 1982-2000 cards sell very well at shows to people going after specific players, if they are priced right. I moved hundreds of them at the last show I did and expect to do even better at the Labor Day show in Anaheim in a few weeks.

I learned a lot from this post, Tim - thanks

I'm on the hunt for various junk wax commons all the time, but for autograph purposes. I don't deal in unsigned anything, but do have a lot of unsigned cards from this era (80's). I trade them to many people I've met online who still hand collate Junk Era sets. I will swap them their needs for my own.

It's really refreshing to see people eagerly collecting this material simply for the fun and memories. You know, growing up in the 80's and collecting modern in that era may not have made most of these then-kids rich, but it means that anybody of that age on any kind of budget can jump back into their youth for next to nothing! It's not completely a bad thing!

As a huge plus, the folks I've met who are into this sort of thing have been by and large very positive, kind and fair traders. Who doesn't need more of that in their lives? It also brings a bit of a chuckle to deal with people who will take the time to describe the slightest of dings in a one cent common and offer to send a photo to ensure I'm OK with the card! Bottom line, junk wax has really become an unexpected positive on this end. Who'da thunk it?
I get to help people complete sets that most of the world has consigned to the dustbins of their lives and I end up with some cards which will later get autographed.

(Hank--probably not what you were after at all, but thought I'd chip in with this, seeing as it does partially incorporate the "modern era" to which you were asking.)

I buy a pack now and then (probably less than $50 worth per year) and a factory and update set every year.

Hi Hank! I’m a big WNBA fan and I have a registry set of the rookie cards of the top 25 WNBA players ever, as voted in 2021. I also collect rookie and signature cards of other players I like. Up until a few years ago all the cards were either produced by Fleer or Rittenhouse. There are some genuine rarities amongst these. Rittenhouse, for example, released the cards as boxed sets. The largest printing for any year was 500 sets. That means that the total population of Breanna Stewart rookies is 500. Maya Moore’s rookie season of 2011 had a release of only about 200 sets. Those are incredibly low numbers. Panini has now taken over and we have huge print numbers with all the colored refractors. I don’t like the change but I’m sure it represents increased revenue for the league which it could surely use.

Here's another modern slang term I forgot: color match.

Color match is when the parallel color matches the team jersey colors. It has aesthetic value, and brings additional $$$. It can be any serial number. Here is an example of a color match RC Joey Votto. This is an extreme example, since it is #/25. This is a niche collector, but they exist, usually for team collectors or individual player collectors. Kind of like collectors that go for numbered parallels that are #1, jersey number, or the last serial number exp 99/99.

Then here is an example of a Joey Votto rainbow: Chrome Refractor, Xfractor, Blue Refractor, Copper Refractor, Red Refractor.

Cards not mine.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...fe99ec6947.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...415402a619.jpg

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Those are pretty cards! Not as nice as T206s, 33Goudeys, or 55Ts, but what is?

Tim been collecting vintage "Rainbow" for years :D
Have a few sets of '55 Armour coin variations
& a few collectors do that w/ exhibits & '41 Goudeys

https://www.qualitycards.com/pictures/21495226.jpg

Don’t forget the PSA 1-10 rainbow.

that was a great summary tim

as a hopeless set collector…i love the parallel chase for completeness in any given year. not THAT expensive, but not THAT easy, either. i do it with flagship and chrome…and try to add the SPs. i binder them up and i think all the parallels look awesome all together. for the 93s i have the base, the two inaugural, the gold and the micro…the ‘84s have the base, tiffany and nestle…with the o-pee-chee in the back since it wasn’t a one for one.

i love all eras of the game and of the cards…some months i do more modern, some more vintage. keeps it all fresh and fun

I love this post!

I have a huge soft spot for the Nestles. It has to be residual carryover from the 80s craze for them!

Here is an incomplete example of what you're describing. I think the KGJ run with the half grades is pretty interesting. I'm shocked how much some people are willing to pay for the elusive half grades.

I've seen the Armour coin rainbows before and I think they are really cool! I've also seen the Exhibits come up occasionally with the standard, blue tint, purple tint, and green tint. Is there another color? And I know some of the cards come with different signature lines. As for the 41 Goudey, I'm not sure I've seen a rainbow for them before.

The modern collectors would use the fire emoji for this. I love your 1993 Topps binder! This was the first set I ever tried completing. I had no clue about the inaugural sets until decades later.

+1. a collector.

From my personal experiences, which are somewhat limited, it seems the younger generation is all about gambling on the next prospect. There just aren't that many young, true collectors, it seems. There's nothing wrong with it, it's just diffferent.

and a card...

...and those of us who've already dealt with people trying to get us to buy 100 Monty Fariss RCs in 1989 to put our future kids through college have been through this rigmarole a time or three. Old news to us.

Is there a huge difference between gambling on prospects and all the threads about which pre-war cards to invest in that get posted all the time?

No. It's just that collecting antiques is considered a respectable pastime, so you have a plausible alternative explanation for your hobby if you're trying to buy low and/or sell high with pre-war cards, as I assume we all are if we place any value on our net worth.

Some of us buy cards we like because we like them. But there are always posts about what to invest in and what cards have the biggest room for return, etc. I'm not sure that's really collecting either.

I personally agree with this prediction, Mark, but a difference could arise from all the history of the game we learned from the backs of our Topps cards as well as all the reading we did from "Big-Time Baseball" in 1950 to "The Glory of Their Times" in 1966 and the succeeding generations of excellent biographies, team and era histories, etc., that whetted our appetites for older cards and collectibles. I'm not sure the younger generations today are indulging in that history and absorbing much of it into their collecting pursuits. If I had to guess, I'd say that many of them will at some point begin directing their disposable income toward vintage if for no other reason than that the older stuff is just so cool looking and so different from the modern designs, not to mention their so-far proven value as commodities.

I do get why some people only buy for investment or monetary value though. I’m not talking the guys with the pelican cases. I’m talking guys here buying pre war. As you get older you really have to look at your investments. I’ve known guys that have gone from huge collections to 4 or 5 excellent cards. I would still consider them collectors even though they are now mainly concerned with returns on their cards. Modern collecting has its place too. It’s the reason for all this interest and huge prices on vintage cards. I do see a lot of people who jumped back into the hobby the past 3 years have big interest in 50s-70s cards. It’s nice to see guys get weaned off the shiny stuff. I have my share of shiny stuff too. I stopped in 2018. Too many products. I don’t mind the amount of refractors etc, but the amount of stuff to buy is astronomical. They have wax products and online products, the better stuff was harder to come by. If it’s the right player I have no problem selling this stuff. Ohtani stuff was easy sell as was Judge second year cards. These people buy this crap up. Modern cards are thriving especially now with Fanatics having breaks. These newer collectors eat this stuff up. I couldn’t really tell you if these people are baseball fans like people on this board or just casual fans.


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The difference between the majority of investors here and the investors in modern is a lot smaller than people pretend. Modern is more higher risk higher reward but the approaches aren’t all that different. The biggest difference I’ve found is the distaste the vintage collectors have for the new guys while the new guys don’t really about the old guys.

That's kind of where I was going. It's a phenomenon repeated throughout time: people get old and think their interests are the pinnacle of all interests.

Just like when your parents asked you why your hair is long, or why you got a tattoo, or what's so special about the internet?

Funny that I just drafted a reply that said basically the same thing, but deleted it so as not to offend anyone.

I never, or very rarely, hear a young, new to the hobby collector, cut down a vintage collector, etc. I read a lot of posts from vintage collector's that either make jest off, or run down the modern collector. It's not right and I don't agree. The truth is, modern collectors are what keeps this hobby alive and thriving. They are the future. We may not agree with the methods or reasons why they collect, but unless it does damage, real not perceived, why should one care? We should be elated that young people have joined the hobby.

I don't think that 'investing" and "collecting" need to be absolute opposites either. I think you can collect what makes you happy while also keeping a view for some modicum of value.

I love my vintage cards...and I love my modern parallels. when my heirs ultimately deal with these, I have written little notes with thoughts on how to proceed.

using my '84 or '93 binder projects as an example: i have collected those, displayed them, and enjoyed them the way I love...but have also tried to collect high end condition for them. so, when they finally are sold, either they will find a home with another "master set" dude like me who will recognize and appreciate the value...or the auction house can break them up, grade the mattinglys and jeters to maximize value and sell the rest , etc. We're talking hundreds of dollars, not thousands...but over 25 years of "master" set building with SSps and parallels , it adds up

Thats perhaps not the same as maximizing value on graded T3s, but I would like my successors to still maximize the value. is that investing or just being prudent?

A big +1 to that! What a drag it would be to be passionate about a hobby you knew was going to die away with your generation, it might make me wonder what the hell I was doing collecting these things! In defense of my generation, I think a lot of the disparagement arose from the assumption that the "shiny stuff" taking up more and more of the table space at shows would be rendered a fool's quest by the seemingly infinite numbers of those cards produced and the fact that practically none of them would ever get thrown away by moms or put in bicycle spokes or go into paper drives, so the supply would always be more or less unlimited and therefore be only temporarily of collector's interest. And until quite recently, I wouldn't have been able to tell you if I thought the vintage collecting of my boomer generation was a "one-off" based on our nostalgia for the cards of our youth and then trickling down to the older cards of players we had come to idolize from our reading about baseball's long history, or if succeeding generations would have similar feelings about the cards and collectibles of their peers. Now it appears to be the latter case, and to me it is a wonderful thing to behold.

Tim, Here's the 4 colors via reprints that I saw online
This will give you an idea of them

https://cdn11.bigcommerce.com/s-mqv5...001982.JPG?c=1

I have a near complete run of Mickey Mantle cards but recently got into more modern cards. I now have a run of Aaron Judge rookie/pre rookie cards and working on a run of Anthony Volpe rookie/prerookie cards. I generally avoid signed, relic, or other artificially scare cards of them, so mostly just have the junk base cards. And I’ve purposely limited myself to just buying from their rookie year and prior, given the vast number of cards produced each year. Will I ever see a return on my purchases? It’s highly unlikely. But, purchasing modern cards has led to a renewed interest in baseball and allowed me to purchase some cards when I’m pretty much priced out of Mantle. To each his own.

Those are cool, not sure I'm seen them before. Seems strange that such an obscure issue would get reprinted, but I guess the originals are crazy rare.

Hey Hank- I have always bought with my eyes and my heart and not what my wallet says.

Several years ago, when my collection was at it's peak value-wise, I was able to show off my best with two of my siblings, who were in town for a rare visit. I explained to them that the cards were more than just the cardboard, they were representations of different times in history...and are the source of many enjoyable associated stories.

Almost all of those great cards were one I found ASTHETICALLY pleasing. They just happened to be valuable too.

So, when the market got high enough, I sold off almost all of those old, pretty things (though I kept my two 'Double Walters'). I do miss all my Cobbs & Ruths & those Allegehenys, but I had to do it.
It was nice to be the 'owner' of those great cards for a few years.

What remains are graded cards of players in my lifetime: Koufax, Mantle, Aaron, Mays, Ryan.


As far as modern (post 1980) cards are concerned, I still go after those cards that appeal to my ASTHETICALLY - some of the designs and photos are outstanding, though most are not.

I will always collect Braves and players with local ties and I also collect Topps Certified Auto'd cards.
If it ever comes out that those are fake, it's going to hurt...but, I can't get to card shows, so I have to rely on someone, supposedly, further up the hobby food chain for the authenticity.


IMO, it's a fool's errand to even attempt building modern sets...even if you're just doing the base version.

That being said, I have also indulged in buying sealed boxes...wind up donating most of them to good causes (right Tim?) - but keeping the Braves.

At my age, realizing that nobody else in my family has even a passing interest in my cards, I will have to continue to TRY to 'cull my herd'.


.

One of the afore-mentioned 'Double Walters' - which I originally purchased, by the way, from Leon, his ownself.

Attachment 583543

Incredible card, Robbie, what's the other "double WaJo?" As far as culling, most of us have had to do that from time to time, and I have found it to be relatively painless in the end.

The other 'Double Walter' is the other 'Walter', Walter Mails, since they were his card set...which I still think is so cool.


.

Of course, duh-uh. I'm guessing that card is unique, a player having a card in his own set of players.

Raymond, I was thinking that your "other 'Double Walter'" meant that you had both the red and blue back versions of the WG7 card of WaJo. BTW, which back of WaJo do you have?

It was very much appreciated by every boy and parent in the room! thank you

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Questions About "Modern" Cards
 

I can’t keep up with modern on the whole these days, but I very much appreciate the fact that healthy new collectors means a thriving hobby - and more shops, more shows, more cash flow. With all those things of course, more vintage comes out as available too.

I will occasionally buy a box of something new like Topps flagship or Heritage, but I’m not spending the $ to do all the parallels, numbered cards, SP’s, SSP’s, and autos and relics. In an age when many new to the hobby actually throw base cards in the trash - I like them. Base cards were mostly all we knew when I started in the height of the junk wax days. One of my favorite modern cards is the ‘21 Heritage Shohei Ohtani (‘72 Topps design). It’s not worth much, but I just like the design and the picture. Base cards can be a cheap way to still have fun with the hobby and keep up with current MLB.


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There might turn out to be an interesting parallel between the "base cards" of my youth (50s and 60s Topps, etc.) and the base cards of the "junk wax" era
whereby the former were rendered scarce by bike spokes, flipping, basement floods, moms looking to clean out old bedrooms, etc., and the latter being left on the floor or discarded into the trash after the packs were opened and the search for chase cards completed. And maybe that is still going on in different forms of disparagement of more modern base cards that would lead people to toss them when going to college or into the Army, getting married and moving into small starter apartments, and the like. The perception of lack of future value, after all, is what has created scarcity for every one of the cards and other memorabilia that was issued in the millions a hundred or more years ago and now go for millions each in some cases. Not saying there is any kind of comparability between them, but it's interesting to contemplate the potential similarities.

Just chiming in here.

Every so often I'll buy something small from one of the modern sets. I feel absolutely overwhelmed with all the products though. So many different subsets, parallels, refactors, hell there's apparently something called a "tacofractor" with pictures of tacos on the card (I wish I was joking)

It's gotten too complicated, the market seems too over saturated, I'd argue it's worse than the junk wax era. One thing that I love about vintage, is that there were a couple of "main" sets and then a few regional sets sprinkled in.

This comment is gold.

I am sorry to say because we tend to ignore it in this forum, but unless you walk through a show in horse-blinders you have to realize that vintage has become a fractional segment of the hobby and hopefully always will be. To many dealers, as has been mentioned prior in the thread about the Bo Jackson card, the dealer did not sell "vintage". The ridiculous definition of modern we hold is just plain silly. 1980 was 43 years ago, I can get a Historical automobile plate for a car in Michigan after 26 years...thus a 1996 Honda Civic is a Historical automobile as weird as it seems.

I collect all years from the 1800's to tomorrow and enjoy every bit. It keeps me in touch with my son and I learn more everyday and keep the old man memory losses slowed down, lol.

I collected stamps as a kid and teen and watched the lack of new collectors kill the hobby. It remains only a bastion for the handful of old collectors still getting the classics like Graf Zeppelins but any thing else isn't worth face value most of the time. The USPS put the first nail in by making it a hobby for sticker collectors and killing albums then the collectors tossed the dirt on by being unwelcoming to anyone young. We don't want that future.

The absolute best thing for the hobby, bar none, is modern cards being successful and keeping the base growing. Those 14 year old kids with the backpacks and pelican cases at the show are far more important to the hobby than us and we should welcome them with open arms.

Agreed that we need young people in the hobby. Even if only a small fraction of them migrate to vintage, that is still a lot of people. And without them, the National and other big shows might not even be viable.

I recently started dabbling in modern, and it is utterly confusing. For example, there are 63 2018 Shohei Ohtani Rookie cards by one estimate. That doesn't include any of his cards in a Japanese uniform.

Another thing is how much the TPG matters. If you don't go with PSA, good luck selling your cards for a decent price. A 2018 Topps Chrome Ohtani paper (not the refractor) goes for about $350 during the past week on ebay. The same card in an SGC or CSG 10 goes for about $230. If you roll the dice and get a Pristine 10 by BGS, you can sell it for about $550, but if you only get 9.5, it sells for less than half of the BGS 10.

It makes you wonder if you can break out an SGC, CSG, or BGS 9.5 and get a 10 by PSA for some relatively easy money.

With all of the speculation and volatility, it is just gambling. I don't know if the kids gambling on modern will get the same rush they do from buying vintage. Obviously investing of any kind is speculation and a form of gambling, but some of this modern speculation in players that haven't made it out of single A takes it a more disturbing level.

Is there a big difference between someone investing in a minor league prospect and someone who bought a bunch of Ohtani material in 2018? He'd only played in Japan and other than Ichiro, Japanese players didn't have a great track record of becoming perennial All Stars or MVP candidates in America.

But if you had jumped on Ohtani in 2018, didn't you do well for yourself today?

I guess what I'm getting at is that there seems to be a need to put distance between different methods of collecting. But when it comes down to it, we're all mostly collecting in similar ways.

Not really sure where you are going with this. I think all forms of investing are gambling, but some are obviously riskier than others. Obviously, the earlier you invest in a player during their career, the more risky. But you may also be able to get the cards for less. What scares me is people paying 6 figures for a player like Jasson Dominguez who hasn't proven himself yet.

What I'm getting at is that although collecting modern cards is much maligned in the vintage arena, both segments of the collecting pool are collecting in much the same ways.

Whereas pre-war collectors seem to be looking to be the first to discover the next card to get a price bump, modern collectors are looking to be the first to buy or sell their own next card up.

I think we should all appreciate collecting in general, rather than try to disparage what or how another person might collect.

1986 Fleer Basketball is one of the most widely collects sets in the hobby. But other than that, I can't think of any other modern sets that are highly sought after.

I literally wrote a column on this last week. Here is an excerpt:

I am hearing a great deal of protest from modern card folks about the attitudes of collectors of vintage cards. Basically, it takes the form of a whine about how it isn’t nice to crap all over someone’s way of collecting, and it isn’t fair to label people who collect modern cards, participate in breaks, etc., as “stupid”.

That isn’t what is going on at all. People are not being called "stupid"; some collectors are being told they are engaged in highly speculative investment activities, spurred on by investment touting and log-rolling that tries to gloss modern cards as investment grade items, and they should watch their sixes. Collect whatever makes you smile. I am into utterly worthless but absolutely beautiful prewar Japanese printed invitations, greeting cards and postcards. But when you start talking the financial end of it, you walk into the buzzsaw of critical analysis.

Now, the criticism/advice isn’t gratuitous. Those of us voicing the warnings on modern are not making personal attacks and aren’t doing it for s***s and giggles. We see ourselves less as scolds than as Cassandras. No one likes to hear "remember thou art mortal", but we say it anyway. Long-time collectors have real world perspectives on this: we are sitting on monster boxes full of it. What has been expressed is the wonder at how history repeats and how the lessons of the past typically are relearned the hard way by those who are new to the field and are convinced that this time it is going to be different than it has been in every single other speculative bubble over the last 40 years. Ignorance can be bliss, but in investments, ignorance is fatal, and as the hobby evolves into a form of alternative investment, more money than ever is at risk, yet many act as if risk was non-existent and us old farts are just being d**ks about it.

I happen to think, from what I see, that a sizable percentage of newbies are dangerously ignorant of the hobby’s boom-and-bust cycles. They have never seen, nor do they comprehend, what happens in the hobby when we have a basic, high unemployment, 6–18-month recession. Sales flatline and prices drop. Not a problem if you are holding a card with a population of a few hundred. It will come back. When no one is buying abundant, hyped cards on the flip, however, these newer participants are going to crap themselves then sell right into a price-demand death spiral. They always do. It crashes the items that are speculative, thinly collected, not otherwise subject to genuine collector demand, or with a massive pop. Does that mean every Kaboom! or Jambalaya is going to fall into the commons bins? Of course not. But prices will drop hard and fast and when your financial model depends on rapidly laddering prices, look out below.

I don't think there is a serious debate to be had that a sizable percentage of newbies are engaging in a form of young player/new card speculation that has a long track record of failure. The cabinets of longtime collectors are littered with the cardboard images of flashes in the pan, from Ron Kittle to Kevin Maas; we've all got piles of junk (damn you Keston Hiura). Most prospects will go sour, as will their cards. There is no reason to believe that the people speculatively accumulating cards of shiny new players will have a different outcome than everyone else who followed that strategy in the last 40 years. What does stand out today is the steep trajectory of the price increases and the resulting incredible sums at risk, so much more than in any other rookie card run. I don't really care that the twenty bucks I put into Topps Walgreens yellow Hiura cards is gone; I would be sh****ng egg rolls if I'd spent thousands on a signed shiny limited edition thingy. The scary thing about modern is that there are tons of very expensive signed shiny limited edition thingies that place really large sums of money at risk and that new ones come out practically every week.

The unprecedented level of hype is real too. What is shiny and new today is not so shiny or new next week. There is a strategy being deployed to manipulate people who do not have sufficient perspective into buying items and services that are not likely to have real value over the long haul. In that regard, Fanatics and Panini and all of the breakers and influencers remind me of stock bucket shops slogging dodgy IPOs. There is an epic degree of pumping by influencers, manufacturers, and the people who make money off the speculators (the service providers like PSA and Goldin). What is missing is end user collector demand for all this product. The proof of that, as it was in past crazes, is how many of these cards are being slabbed, sold and resold rapidly rather than disappearing into long treasured collections. 30 years ago, it was 100 count stacks of Gregg Jeffries and Gary Sheffield 89 UD cards. Today it is the latest shiny, varied, limited edition card. Both scenarios featured rapid price rises and frenzied trading of abundantly-available cards. That form of price laddering looks great but it has a nasty way of crashing, especially when the economy cools (e.g. unemployment rises); it is true with IPOs, it was true of every rookie card bubble, and there is no reason to think it will not be true here again. Take NFTs as a cautionary tale of hype without substance. The believers in NFTs are strangely silent now because they got cleaned out when the hype failed and the music stopped playing; Bored Ape NFT, anyone?

From a financial perspective, I am not sure the newbs understand that the hobby is a particularly brutal investment when it comes to new players and modern cards because the bet can go to zero very fast and there is no hedging or exit strategy available. Even in a falling stock market, you can set a stop loss and get out, and real estate never goes to zero, it cycles, but when Sam Horn goes down the tubes there is no exit and no bottom except the commons bin. Babe Ruth does not go down the crapper the way the latest, greatest thing will when his WAR falls to 1.8 (yeah, looking at you, Pete Alonso).

And a card:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...dy%201%20a.jpg