I don't get the insane Julio Rodriguez Hype
 

That was a very nice season by a 22 year old, don't get me wrong. But it wasn't other-worldly. .853 OPS and we're all losing our minds? Really?

How did you feel about Griffey after his first season? Is it always hype?

He had a 147 OPS+ which was Top 10 in all of MLB, as a 22 year old rookie, that pretty special.

Definitely over-hyped, as most young players are these days.

Potential though to be a very good player.

He kind of choked in the Playoffs last year, but again he is young, so we'll see.

Griffey Jr was only 19 his first season, Rodriquez was 22. 3 year difference is pretty big. No way I compare him to Jr at this point.

But again he could/should be a very good player. Just over-hyped at the moment.

He’s a generational talent playing centerfield for Seattle. Why not talk about him in relation to Griffey?

Because it's one year. We treat these guys like they're guaranteed careers like Griffey (and frankly you can buy Griffey rookies cheaper, but don't get me started) Let's say he turns out to be George Springer. That's great for the Mariners as Springer is a fine player, but when's the last time you saw anyone give a damn about his cards?

Don't make me hop in the wayback machine and bring up our disagreement of the value of Corey Dickerson :D

Who wasn’t hyped in your opinion? Meaning who did you hear about see play and think it was the real thing? If not Julio.

Griffey was a god before he was a MLB superstar too. There’s a reason he was the first card in 89 UD. He hit 264 that year. People had a feeling they knew what they were looking at though.

So many come hyped and then flame out look at Gary Sanchez former Catcher Yankees and was supposed to be the next generation of catcher’s and instead he cannot even stay on the field because of his defense and strikes out way to much.

I hope Rodriquez succeeds but his season was good but agreed over hyped

Every year lately someone gets overhyped because flippers are looking for the next Mike Trout hobby darling. Luis robert, Jared Kelenic, Wander Franco etc. and every year someone overpays and gets left holding the bag when everyone moves onto the next prospect


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He had a great rookie year and certainly looks like a great player, but this is baseball, who the hell knows what the future holds. Some like him have gone on to be great players, many have not.

Its the potential thats the drug to the bidders but the bar is very very high , to meet the bar the first year is a little bit easier then the 2nd year......if no huge improvement the 2nd year, on to the next rookie, unless the player is 20 years old etc..

greg jeffries, gary thurman, kevan maas , ben mcdonald, matt nokes...brien taylor........those guys occur a lot more than griffeys..

As do guys who end up with a nice career but not a HOF one. Strawberry, Gooden, Eric Davis, Canseco, Mattingly, I could go on.

the strawberry topps traded rookie was a biiiig deal, there is the new artificial scarcity now with the modern that was not present during the old days of boggs and gwynn days..

The 86 Donruss Canseco was the biggest thing on earth for a while.

Yeah but I was asking who you think wasn’t hyped. What I’m getting at is whether or not it’s possible to be the next big thing without being criticized over expectations.

not about criticized over expectations generally , the issue I have is I am critical of the prices being paid for these cards. Many of the potential great players get criticized as far as their future but the card prices are not nearly as high like Julio Rodriguez.

Lebron James certainly was worth all the hype...however what is the ratio and remember a lot of these hyped cards will end up being worth 99% less 5 years later than what they sell for in the first year

It is an oddity of modern collecting that if Rodriguez has a really good next 10 years, appears on the Hall of Fame path, etc....his rookie cards will likely be LESS expensive than they are right now.

Fred Lynn at 23 as a rookie had OPS+ 162

Rice was at only 120.

One year of good numbers may mean something or may not.

Pete Alonso was 148. Dick Allen 162. Jose Abreu 173.

exactly so many other factors...what city he plays in how many championships any huge individual feats like 60 home runs etc Dude can hit .320 with 25 homer a year and 20 steals on average for 10 years and cards tank

I think the issue is that you guys are trying to fit the pre-war model of collecting into the modern model and it's never going to be the same game.

I think J-Rod is pretty darn good. He's likely to lead off for an absolutely stacked Dominican team in the World Baseball Classic, which should be fun.

Hey. He's gotta be pretty good if he can make already packaged Topps cards out of what looks like cookie dough.


( courtesy of the marginally imaginative minds at MLB network).


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well pre war people sell a wide variety of cards , and very few lose 99 percent of their value, so thats the issue with the model. Seems more like a pyramid scheme for the julio rodiq types. the last one holding the bag when the music stops is in trouble..

I agree he looks good but also his super expensive cards can fall in value...he can be great and still have huge loss of value in cards....

That's true for the most part. There are some silly things that sell for a lot of money on the pre-war side too. I might be in the market for one anyway but I'm not going to like what I spend on a Ten Million Obak when the time comes.

Flipping lottery ticket winnings before they devalue isn't collecting.

sort of like buying meme stocks..... Gamestop and Amc, its a different form of stocks buying in the past you can argue i guess is the same argument being made of modern v vintage.. i think you got it right how you said it

matt olson
 

will likely have a better career when all said and done that Julio...

Fred Mcgriff harold baines...look out for a marginal HOF player to join you....

All you can do with any very talented player is watch and wait. See if he stays healthy, see if he develops a weakness other teams can exploit, see if he has the mental resiliency to wait out slumps, see if he can stay patient at the plate, etc.

right and then thins out 99% of these guys...yet every there there are 2-3 rookies that their cards sell as 'cant miss' guys

But why does it bother you?

I guess you directed that to person that started the thread, doesnt bother me
'I don't get the insane Julio Rodiquez Hype'

You said you were critical of the prices paid for his cards. But why be critical of what people pay for cards that you're not interested in buying?

He was the number 3 prospect in all of baseball heading into the season. Then he made the All Star team, won ROY, a Silver Slugger and finished 7th in MVP voting. Who else would be hyped if not that player?

critical still does not mean bother...

ROY sure doesnt mean top tier player..

again its question of degree.....terrific prospect but at any price for the card? My opinion is that people are paying too much for this type of player as a ponzi type scheme where the people at the bottom end up losing their money....it happens in stock market too...I would be critical of people buying Gamestop stock at 300, but it doesnt bother me..

I can send you a list of former ROY or former number 3 prospects if you would like that did not pan out at all who had huge pedigree and its more likely than not that they do not meet elite status that people are paying for....

I don't mind at all what people do with the money they earned.

My only fault is that the prospect market is a grift. 99% of these prospect prices during a release year will come at a long-term loss even if the kid becomes a HoF player. There is no way to maintain the hype for a full career anymore as the prospecting has eliminated the excitement of getting a long term win.

In my mind, it's lose-lose. Much better to play the injury game and buy at a low on an off year and bet on a full recovery.

No matter what he does, his cards will drop in price. That's the modern game. Juan Soto cards have dropped. Bryce Harper cards have dropped. Ohtani cards have dropped. It's just a silly game where new propsects are hyped to ridiculous impossible levels by people who run breaking websites and auction houses, dubious bidding groups run prices up to the stratosphere, and then like a game of musical chairs the musc stops and a lot of bagholders have no idea what just happened. Like a ponzi scheme, it's good going if you get in at the right time, but basically 99% of folks end up losing big time. I've seen the same cycle ovr and over. A few years ago there were insane prices for Bo Bichette cards.

With respect to the hype machine, helps if you have a cool or unusal name or nickname. Best prospect of all time could come long named Joe Smith or Bob Jones and, believe me, his prices aren't gong anywhere. Bobzu Smith yes.
Bob Smith no. Could call it the Zion Effect. Or the Jasson Dominquez effect.

right and some people that get stung may be done with the hobby..so i criticize the artificialness of it and also market manipulation in play as well i would assume unless only angels in that venue..

I don't really think you guys are following the modern market. The examples of Juan Soto and Bryce Harper aren't really apt comparisons.

Julio Rodriguez was supposed to be included in the original 2022 Topps Chrome product release. However, he and three other players were held out of the product due to manufacturing issues.

The only way to obtain the Julio Rodriguez short print rookie was to try to pull it from 4 card silver packs released after the fact. This base rookie sells for over a thousand dollars but it's because it's nearly impossible to pull.

The same is true for his Logofractor rookie. His Gilded Collection rookie has to be ripped from a $600 product and even then there are only 199 of them. So, premium product plus short printed rookie. This card also sells for a thousand and above.

There isn't really an apt comparison for Julio other than his contemporaries whose cards had the same print runs. Right now only Spencer Torkelson, Hunter Greene and Bobby Witt had the same print runs but they're all lesser players, except maybe Witt. But his cards sell well too.

You call it hype but there were actually a few unique and contributing factors to the high prices being paid for a flagship base Topps Chrome rookie and other rookies that fall under the short print umbrella.

I enjoyed your wit here.

I live in WA. JRod resurrected a fan base that has been quietly waiting for joy. Their specialty hats are selling out. I missed the AS hat I wanted, when I knew I should have ordered first thing. JRod is the next King Felix, next Ichiro, next ARod. He is the face of the franchise.

In addition, another post highlights how difficult it is to get the Topps Chrome RC out of the silver packs, and the Logofractor that was selling for $800 in December doubled in price in February. That's absurd, but the electricity is real in WA, and fans are excited for playoff baseball and the AS Game in 2023.

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I bought this Ohtani rookie auto in 2019 after it was announced he was hurt and wouldn't pitch that year. I rode the wave and bought low for only $250.

Two seasons later he won the MVP and finished 2nd last year. This card runs over 2K easy now.

Was Ohtani's hype inflated? I would say no and I would also say the market's tendency to shun anyone who doesn't immediately live up to their expectations worked in my favor this time:

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paying 2000 for it now and seeing where i goes from here woudl be interesting but again you can point to 1 and we can point to 20 others...

and its a big net loss to people overall...

again electricity can be real and yet you use the word absurd...its either absurd or it isnt....maybe the electricity is only battery powered and a storm with flooding is brewing..

Not if you invest in the right guy. You can't invest in everyone who's supposed to be good. That's not a strategy for anything.

Today, if you ask me who you should be buying it's JRod and Ohtani at the MLB level and if you want to prospect the next guys, my money is only being spent on Elly de la Cruz, Jordan Lawler and Jackson Holliday.

right but if you spend top dollar on those 3, cruz lawler and hilliday and they have the super rare 3000 dollars cards..i submit it will be a net loss or maybe even a total loss, you have to pick the right one and most will be holding the bag...

What bag? I have $275 invested in Elly and Jordan Lawler and $250 invested in Holliday. I expect a tidy return. Elly and Lawler should be up at the end of this year, if not sooner. And Holliday is already playing in spring training games after graduating high school this summer.

Elly could be the next big thing. I'd be surprised if he isn't up at some point this season.

It's true that you CAN buy the most expensive parallels of any individual player but you don't HAVE to. I buy base auto and if graded I avoid 10's because if I buy a PSA 9 and submit it on a different day, who knows anyway.

I just bought a raw Holliday first bowman auto this morning for $257. I remember when I was hemming and hawing over paying $150 for Juan Soto's first bowman auto after that came out. I'm not looking to make that mistake again.

I do agree that there's a lot of money being wasted. I'm not interested in buying Gunnar Henderson, for example. He plays third base and there's very little chance he'll be as good as Manny Machado is, and Manny Machado doesn't really sell. So, no thank you for me there. Same with Adley Rutschman. Sure, he'll probably be good. But he probably won't be better than Buster Posey and Buster doesn't sell so well either. So I stay away.

I think electricity and absurdness can co-exist. Logofractor had been on the market for a bit, and I thought the card had settled in at $800. I decided the next card I saw for auction on ebay I would jump in. But when that happened, the card was more than 100% above the previous sale price. I assume not being available on ebay for a stretch of time increased buyer desirability.

So then

I would argue it's more like an MLM scam. Get in early and you make out good. Get in late and you're just a sucker annoying your friends lol.

"could be' how bold..... its not getting in the big leagues its staying there when you are high end prospect which is the real hard part

right pyramid scheme.. of course the people at the top are happy..

which cards exactly

Bowman base first autos for those guys. Other guys like Wander and Julio I like to settle for Heritage Minors autos if they're on card or I'll buy an in person signed card instead of the insert auto. I like to buy select cards of select players when it comes to modern but I don't really like to extend much beyond $300. I do follow the market and products though.

And then for the monsters like Trout I like to buy in person signed minors rookies. I bought a signed Soto Heritage in place of the insert auto too. Sometimes I think in the long run in person signed cards of modern players might catch up in prices to certified autos. It's only getting harder to get someone like Trout at the stadium and I don't know how many players will hit the show circuit considering salaries now.

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The real problem with prospecting is that it indirectly hurts everyone in the hobby.

When a set is sort of cool looking and I figure maybe getting some of the base set to open for fun, but no- it's hundreds of dollars a box because the prospect X chrome plated die cut game cracked fingernail card just maybe might be in there.... So that set as a base set becomes expensive for no sane reason, and is now priced way over what a normal person can pay.

And when people at wally world at target start robbing people at gunpoint in the parking lot, for their blaster boxes (oh the irony!) after buying everything on the shelf hoping for the big score... and the chain no longer sells cards at the store.
So I can't randomly pick up a box of ANYTHING here or there. And nobody else can either.

I go to Walmart and Target when I'm upstate and I don't have any problem buying blasters of anything. Maybe three years ago I might have. But not now.

Do you have an example for what you mean when you say a set gets expensive because there's a prominent insert? Every card can be picked up individually and individual cards of inexpensive players don't get expensive because there's a card of someone else in the set.

It wasn't that long ago when many guys on Blowout were absolutely giddy about Acuna. Not so much now, perhaps.

he may be the buy low now ..but really packs makes a point...i really not that familiar with modern as well as many others on this site..... so i have to defer a bit more on this issue to him as he appears to be very knowledgeable on modern and obviously more knowledgeable than myself

Yeah I was never interested in Acuna. Call it a feeling.

The hobby is down on Wander right now since he got hurt last year. His cards are still doing well but distant to JRod. I still think Wander will be the king prospect. He’s not going to hit 30 homers but I think he’ll hit 300 more often than not and might be similar to Jeter counting stats wise.

At the height of the pandemic, our local store Target had nothing in stock. Except maybe the tiny mates or whatever they call the like 1/2 inch tall plastic figures that are just generic with different names printed on them.

I had a friend that worked there, and he said they literally had people hanging around the empty shelves at stocking time and nothing lasted more than 10 minutes.
Not at ours, but others had parking lot armed robberies of boxes of cards. Not a give me your car or money, but literally "cough up the Topps series one or else" When someone in the midwest got shot in the parking lot over cards Target shut down all in store sales.
They gradually restarted them, but at least at ours it's nothing like it was, and there's still very little remaining in stock.
My friend has moved on to Lowes, where they have the same problem with 10mm sockets (Just kidding, a long running mechanics internet meme/joke that isn't as innacurate as most):D

A card set having some special card or insert or series of inserts that makes it more money has been nearly every hot set since at least the early 90's.
93 Finest at $25 a pack because of limited run bought by a few dealers and refractors being in it.

Whatever set had Randy Moss rookie in it. at something like 5x msrp a week after release.
And so on.

Whatever set has this kids card and is a $600 product wouldn't be a $600 product without the special cards, especially his.
Maybe that's MSRP, but without the prospectors a $600 price point is a difficult one to support.

I am thinking about the Upper Deck products in the late 90s with the relic cards - 500 HR Club, or Piece of History. And Topps Chrome has always been more expensive. UD SP was more expensive in the 90s, than compared to Collectors Choice.