$15,000 to spend on 1-5 cards...WWYD?
 

I would like to invest $15,000 on a larger investment type cards(s). Would love to hear everyone's opinions on what they would seek out if it were up to them.

The fact of the matter is, I have a chunk of change I would like to park, and don't feel the best putting it in any financial instrument at the moment.

I respect everyone's opinions here and eager to hear what you would do? Card(s) you would lean towards?

This is a tough one to say. The number one rule would be at what discounted level you can purchase said card or cards in relation to their true value. Bidding in an auction would not work. A much better chance to accomplish my number one rule would have to be a private deal from a collector. I would stick with Regular Issue Highest Grade Nicest Centered one of these Players, Mantle, Ruth, Mays, Jackie, and Cobb. That’s my best advice.

Personally, no rush and no special intent of how/where to purchase. First is to establish player, era, etc. The above-mentioned names are the usual suspects. Eager though to hear specifics people suggest based on their own bias and opinions.

You should also establish a time frame on when you want to sell it for profit.

If I had $15k to spend only on baseball card(s) I myself would buy:

1) 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth #144, or

2) Complete set of 1958 Topps (1958 was a very good year for Topps cards, IMHO). Adjust for condition.

I'd buy a tough regional of Willie May's. Briggs meat or the like.

The usual suspects are completely overpriced based on historical values. Supply will outpace demand IMO. If you wanted to buy something now, that's what I'd do. At least the supply is limited.

I'm looking at a minimum of 5-7 years, up to 20 years at the most.

Pick your player(s) and set(s) first.,...

One idea,
Do the best you can with T206 Cobbs.... IF you buy them right, I think they are as blue chip as anything.
I bought one of these 3 yrs ago, and 2 of them 1 yr ago, and feel they have all appreciated.
.

With my limited experience and knowledge, a Cobb T206 would probably be my first choice due to liquidity, popularity, and fit right in with my own T206 collection.

T206 Red Cobb with Old Mill back and a 1952 Topps Eddie Mathews.

My initial short list:

Cobb Bat Off
Cobb Portrait
51 Bowman Mantle
51 Bowman Mays

Then, there's the more scare/rare items (early Cobb, Ruth, others)

$15k
 

The best and most presentable low grade 1914 Cracker Jack HOF player that you can get…maybe Wagner.

Stick with a main-stream issue of the big names listed above, do not buy a regional or odd-ball issue. Also, do not buy a card with issues, no matter the grade. No one likes qualifiers or cards with obvious distractions.

While I mostly agree with this statement I think, to Leon’s point, the “right one’s” have a much lower supply and will always have a market.

52 Topps Jackie Robinson centered. I think this card will continue to close the gap to Mantle as the years go by.

52 Topps Mays would be my second choice.

My choices would be a nice T206 Cobb, The best 33 goudey ruth you can find for the money or a 51 Bowman Mantle.

I don't think there is any way to predict the future value of cards with any accuracy. So, buy what you like to look at, especially since you'll have them for a minimum of five years.

Ruth. Period. End of discussion. Which one is up to you.

I too think the T206 cobb approach is ideal. Especially if you can get a nice 2 or 3 graded green portrait. Otherwise I think The Goudey Ruth is a close second.

Bill

+1 my thoughts exactly.

Phil yeah, but relatively speaking it seems a pretty safe bet that Ruth and Cobb are going to hold or increase value better than, say, Dizzy Dean or Arky Vaughan, just common sense. One need not be a complete nihilist about this.

I would go for a t3 Cobb as an investment personally. A very beautiful investment...

No doubt, assuming were in the Big 5 pre war and Mantle/Mays market. I would invest in cards I like to look at within that group like a 21 Exhibits Ruth as opposed to a strip card or Sanella.

The best card in the best grade. Only one card. Can’t go wrong with the players mentioned, but pick one player in the highest grade.

Got it, I thought Mark's comment was more general but I may have misunderstood. Agree that within a narrow elite range it's hard to say which turns out the best.

Great centering and eye appeal on those Leon. Congrats!


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Centered 1952 Topps Mays
Centered 1952 Topps Jackie
Another T206 Cobb Green Portrait


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This isn’t much in terms of advice, but since no one else has mentioned it:

Buy what you like! Whatever will bring you joy and make you a little bit happier every time you see it or think about having it in your collection.

In my humble opinion, that should be your primary focus when buying cards, particularly nice ones that cost a lot of money.

If you’re hoping to make money on it, then that’s just a nice side effect, and icing on the cake. But also somewhat unpredictable, even with the excellent suggestions and hopes and dreams that others have suggested here. You might make some money on it, and you might not. But your personal enjoyment should be something that you can predict with much more confidence.

I would sell enough of my current collection to add to the $15,000 to get one of these.
_

Post 17.:eek:

Upon further review…

Since only one other person has mentioned it, and even then only somewhat briefly…

Buy what you like!

I agree with these most likely in reverse order.

I think Peter is right. I might buy the nicest 1921 Ruth exhibit I could get for the money. I would also look at Old Judge HOFers with sharp images. I would pay up for a King Kelly or Ed Delahanty with a sharp image. Especially in that condition they are scarce and I believe undervalued.

Babe Ruth has much wider and deeper iconic/cultural appeal than Ty Cobb, great as Cobb was. Ruth is #1 on every single list you can find of all time greats. Ruth is still arguably the greatest home run hitter ever. Ruth is the Yankees and multiple WS wins, Cobb isn't even in that discussion. Ruth is The House That Ruth Built and the called shot and the stomach ache heard round the world and hitting home runs for dying kids and however many other famous stories, how many does Cobb figure in? Etc.

This type of question has been asked for the past 20 years in this forum (and its predecessor). The answer is always exactly the same because people are predictable.

Not many will venture beyond the most commonly collected sets… so T206, Goudey, Cracker Jack, etc

Not many will venture beyond the most commonly collected players… so Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Joe Jackson, Wagner, etc

Put them together and you will have the answer to your question. :)

If you want to be a bit contrarian, instead of playing it safe, you could attempt to identify a currently under loved issue, and go nuts on it. That Briggs meat Mays suggestion could be an example. Although I’m currently the only one on the PSA set registry who collects that set, so you might not want to go there. But maybe that’s precisely the reason to get in now before the crowd goes nuts and bids them up to the stratosphere.

I have a Green Cobb and want a 1952T Mays & Jackie but would not be upset with another Green Cobb.


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Extremely nice looking cards for the grades assigned!

2-3 high graded willie mays cards… if pre war is your thing I’d get a few cobbs. Can’t go wrong with mr Cobb.

I personally only collect the stuff not included in my answer so by my nature I am a contrarian. Common sets have never really appealed to me but I understand I am in the minority and so if one is looking for investment advice buy the commonly collected sets & players.

Buy what you like? Well now that's just too broad as I have way too many interests. That's my first problem.

Hence why I have even contemplated spreading the 15K around and picking off 5, 10, even 20 cards that appeal to me, am actively trying to persue to complete projects, etc.

Investment isn't the end all here, but I would hope that something beautiful, rare and in demand would appreciate.

Most of us have a list that we keep. For some of us, the list grows every year, even when we pick up a lot of the things on the list.

If I were you, I’d take some time to ponder what you want to have on your list. Make it as long or as short as you like, and start with the stuff at the top of the list.

There’s no right or wrong answers here. It’s your list, not mine, or anyone else’s. It sounds like you might even have a pretty good list already, and maybe you just need to decide which items are the most important on that list.

Then it’s just a question of quality or quantity. Do you buy just one item for your $15k that is the nicest you can afford? Or do you spread it around and buy 10 or 20 items from your list that are lower quality?

In some ways, that might be just as important a question to figure out. And if you’re looking to invest for a return, there are good arguments for both sides. But I would argue for buying one piece that is the nicest that you can afford with your budget, particularly if you’re going to buy popular players from popular issues.

I think most people would tell you to buy just one card if you are buying more as an investor than a collector, you're going to get either a card at a better tier or in a significantly better grade than if you split it two or more ways.

One card I haven't seen mentioned yet is a high-end 34 Goudey Gehrig #37. Admittedly, Ruth is probably a safer bet to appreciate than Gehrig, but I'd put Lou in there with Mays, Mantle, Jackie, etc., in the next tier down.

10K in an Ibond for a year and see how things shake out. $5000 for a nice preesentable Topps set from the 1950s or one nice big card.

Funny you should mention the IBond. A buddy of mine mentioned it to me this afternoon. I have never heard of them but they pay a great interest rate.


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Your original OP said investment only, but what you're really asking is "what should I collect that I'll enjoy that will appreciate over time"

The good old value minded collector thing. I subscribe to that.

Have to buy it direct from the US Treasury. They put a cap of $10k per year on you. If you withdraw after less than 5 years then you pay a penalty equal to your interest earned for the previous 3 months.

And the rate is nice now, but it will fluctuate based in inflation. So it could go down, depending on just how transitory inflation really ends up being.

My amateur take on it was that it provides inflation protection over a period long enough that one probably doesn't need inflation protection.

A few options
 

1) As previously mentioned - whatever the card you choose - be picky about the "right example" - be willing to pay a premium over grade for a card with strong eye appeal and unusual qualities for the grade - especially centering.

That said, I dont know what the 15K gets you in terms of grades of these cards off the top of my head, but these are the cards I would respond to your question with:

1921 Ruth Exhibit
1933 Ruth #144
1952 Willie Mays
1953 Willie Mays
1951 Bowman Mantle
1952 Bowman Mantle
1953 Topps Mantle
1952 Topps Jackie Robinson
T206 Green Cobb
T205 Cobb

Let’s hope you’re right!

I’d recommend buying the best early playing years Ruth caramel you can 1921/1922 or his 21 Exhibit. Myself I’d personally purchase the best early career Ruth or 33 Goudey I could for my PC.

Ruth. Preferably something from early 1920’s, and not a premium

Wagner portrait - D322 tip top, e103, e90-2, M116 (preferably blue)

Cobb- e102/101 pose is reasonable and I like D304. Although red and green t206 is most liquid

1933 Goudey Babe Ruth - Ruth is the greatest player of all time, 1933 Goudey is one of the big 3 sets in the hobby.

T206 Ty Cobb - T206 is the greatest set in the hobby, Wagner is way past 25k, so Cobb is the choice.

This gives you 8 cards to chase. The batting Ruth or green Cobb are ideal, but look for the best eye appeal and value for your 15k card. These cards offer the perfect combination of rarity and demand.

This. I would favor Ruth, but either way hard to go wrong here.

Another contrarian view
 

Here’s another hot take that I don’t think has been expressed yet, although Peter will correct me if I’m wrong:

If I were looking to INVEST in cardboard, I’m not sure that I would do it now.

If I wanted to buy for my own collection and enjoyment, then all day every day, to the extent that my budget allows. But the OP here seems focused on investment first and foremost.

To my mind, the runup in prices over the last two years has just been breathtaking, often as much as 500% or more, depending on the issue and the player. If I were investing right now, it’s hard to imagine that I’m not buying at or near the top if I’m investing today, particularly if I’m investing in vintage.

Now, I’m sure that the majority of the forum will heap scorn on this idea, and I fully respect that and expect nothing less than to be roundly condemned for my craven approach.

But for my money, if I’m investing strictly for a return, now is not the time that I would invest in cardboard.

People who try to time the market more often than not, if not usually, get it wrong. From DJIA 8000 to DJIA 20,000 I bet I got three emails a week telling me we were at a top and about to crash. In my humble opinion the time to invest, if you are so inclined, is when you have the funds. Don’t try to time. The vast majority of crystal balls don’t work.

1921 Exhibit Ruths are great cards and are a good investment as all of them are however I believe that card as many others have seen such rapid growth in a short time that you maybe able to find others with more upside.

However as a potential real long term investor as you mentioned that maybe a non factor in any that you chose

If you are looking for shorter term I would consider the 1925-1929 Exhibit Ruth Postcards. they are underappreciated in my opinion and have more upside potential.

However I do not believe you can go wrong with any thing that is mentioned in the thread especially over the long term.

Perhaps the only thing to try and avoid cards that are to obscure even from the big Names because sometimes if it is to obscure and does not sell often(in years) the potential buyers do not know what the true worth might be and it also shrinks the number of people that might want to buy it

So what you are saying is that I have a collection of cards to avoid? LOL

F272- Unc...

The big takeaway from all this jolly, carefree banter is...if I had (someone gave me) $15,000 I wouldn't spend it on baseball cards, or anything hobby related. I would probably remodel my kitchen. If you're rolling in money, while the rest of us real people try to get by, then go ahead, buy that Ruth or Cobb.

For me, it is Ruth, Ruth and Ruth. I'd add an Exhibit Ruth(s) that I don't have. It's pretty hard to go wrong over the long haul with Babe Ruth. I mean, he's Babe Ruth.

Second choice would be Jackie Robinson, probably either a 1949 Bowman or a 1952 Topps, or both if I could swing it. I'd probably lean towards upgrading my 52; it's a bit ratty.

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...20Robinson.jpg

But still one of my favorite cards.

Again, it's pretty hard to go wrong with Jackie Robinson.

Most players pass through baseball history, but Ruth and Robinson are baseball history.

A Babe Ruth Exhibit, the earlier the better.

And all of the people who bought bitcoin at $67k thinking it would go straight to $1M wish they had waited instead and bought today at $19k.

We all have our opinions about the current market for cardboard and where it’s going over the next few years. If there was any doubt about my opinion, now you know it. And naturally, others will disagree, as is their God-given right.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/eugene-...me-the-market/

https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/...he-nobel-prize

Almost every time I bought a (for me) significant card, people I know and talk to regularly told me to wait until the price dropped because it had gone up so much recently. That would have worked out real well.

In the face of withering and indisputable evidence, please consider my earlier comments to be withdrawn. Go nuts and buy everything you can while you still can. Cardboard only goes up!

Now you're talking my friend. :cool: To the moon, Alice. And meanwhile, you wait patiently because the crash is surely coming and you surely can time it perfectly. :)

To infinity and beyond!!

In all seriousness, I’m not buying cardboard strictly to invest. If I happen to make some money, then all the better, but my personal enjoyment and the fun of collecting is as important if not more so than any return on my investment. Disclaimer: this statement is not intended to preclude my ability to assert my status as an investor for tax purposes…

And when cardboard prices are incredibly high, then I have other priorities in my life that bring me joy that I can allocate resources to. For the last 24 months, I’ve been focused on other priorities, while continuing to add to my cardboard collection at the margins, for pieces that I’m feeling I can get at a price that works for me.

And if prices only go up from here, that’s cool too. I’m happy to sit on my collection and just let it ride, without adding to it. Heck, if it goes up another 500%, maybe I’ll even sell, just to put my money where my mouth is.

And another Buffett quote, since he’s the man:

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

To my mind, it’s less about timing for jumping in and out of the cardboard market, and more about relative resource allocation. Allocate more when the market is down, and less when the market is triple the all-time high.

I don't look at any card purchase as a true investor would, but at the same time, with lots of exceptions admittedly, I try to buy cards I think are good long term value. So at this point for example I probably wouldn't buy anything but a rookie card of most players other than the very top of each sport. Post war that is, prewar I don't think the RC thing is that meaningful.

This comment clearly has undertones of much more going on. Real people? Rolling in money?

I make no apologies for having some $ that I would like to spend on baseball cards and that my kitchen satisfies my wife, as that certainly doesn't make me less of a real person, lol

T206 Cobb bat off/red
48 Leaf Jackie
51 Bowman Mays

pick two, highest grade/eye appeal you can find.

Thank you for the wonderful feedback on this thread. What's it's helped me to do is actually consider a wider range of cards that I may have not considered. In addition, given me jump off point to study and learn more about some of these items (as my knowledge and experience in prewar and early vintage is still limited).

A year ago, if someone asked me that question, I would have probably said "easy, go grab an early Mantle or Mays", which isn't a terrible answer, but short sighted and limited in scope.

After much banter and discussion, I've begun to put pen to paper and make a list (albeit long) of players and cards/sets that I love and want. These include the obvious suspects.

I lean towards Babe and Cobb in early cards such as exhibit, t206, caramel, sporting news, etc. While I understand the draw of Goudey and early Topps/Bowman, I believe I would enjoy owning something a bit older and a bit more scarce/harder to find.

Really appreciate all the great insight, advice and banter.

This seems to be a recurring theme. I do like me a good-looking early Babe Exhibit. ;)

Now that we've heard everyone's opinion on player/card/set, the real question is "at what price point", which has been bantered about earlier in the thread.

Personally, I (in my limited knowledge) see some value/upside in:

25-29 Exhibit Babe Ruth
1949 Bowman Jackie Robinson
1951 Bowman Willie Mays

Myself, I am eager to learn more about some early 20's items that some may feel haven't run up in price compared to others.

Is there such a thing as undervalued early 20th century items?

Timing the market, in the sense of absolute peaks and highs, is a fools errand.

However, it is usually very easy to see when things are on the higher end, or the lower end. If everything has doubled recently, it's usually not the best buying time. When everything has been falling for awhile, it's usually a good buying time.

When the government shifts signaled that there was going to be an economic boom in 2016, I bought quick and then held. When government shifts later signaled that they were going to kill the economy, I stopped buying. A few more months and it will be time to start looking at more buying as things have fallen significantly this year. Will I buy at the bottom? Almost certainly no, but I will be ensuring I am buying at a low point in the market and not a high one.

It's pretty similar for cards. Just like when stocks 'go bad', some actually do well and make big gains if you picked the right ones, but the majority tend to follow the same basic rules. You can't time perfectly, but you can generally ID the better buying times.

Everyone thinks his favorite cards are undervalued. I would stay away from that whole subject, honestly. You're not going to get any consistent answers asking a few random people participating in a thread.

The research I have seen suggests that over the long haul, you can't really even time approximately and beat the market. Look at all the countless professionals out there trying to do it. Over a long period of time, most of them do not beat the indices. Unless they have insider information.

Another word of advice....when everyone is saying the same items are guaranteed to go up....they already have, and smart money is getting out.

For decades low-mid grade t206s and 33 goudeys littered auction houses. They were likely the most collect and printed cards of the prewar era. Couple that with people saving everything of the superstars of the day, newpapers, photos, etc and you have a big supply. Demand is always the other side of the coin, but the supply side is only curtailed when people want to hang onto their items.