“Someone got a great deal on that”
 

Why do I think we are going to be hearing a lot of that in the coming months?

Market is totally resetting. Won’t be every item but will be most.

At least we are not modern baseball or modern basketball. Vintage will be fine. Some bumps in the road but fine.

I agree totally.

Hope it resets on some of the cards I want. So far, no such luck...

Vintage aint’ slowin’ down…my suggestion is to buy as much vintage at decent prices - and then continue to buy more - at decent prices…..the “fad” crowd spending hundreds - thousands - tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands and more for post 80 “limited” - “special” - one of ten cards will be begging you to sell your vintage….why anyone would spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on Brady, Trout and LeBummer “cards” is beyond comprehension….

IMHO

I predict I will be hearing that the card market is about to drop from collectors who want to get more cards, and that I will simultaneously hear that it will inexorably go up, up and away forever no matter what and everyone should go into debt and empty their 401K’s to buy more cards from those who stand to profit from such behavior.

LeBron? Brady? How about spending over a million dollars on a Justin Herbert card?

I learned from a longtime board member here who has helped me put together my collection, has givin me a lot of advice, and put things into perspective.

Know what you want to collect and be patient. Collect long enough and you will see these things go through cycles, he's been through a few. Buy what you can when you can and build your collection slowly, sometimes you'll overpay and sometimes get great deals. And the best part about this hobby is the relationships you make.

I don't think in the past 15 years there has been a day when some thread about which way the market was headed wasn't on the front page.

I’d be surprised if this wasn’t the case. The takes seem to be leaning a little more extremist and absurd than normal lately (not referencing the original post of this particular thread).

Not something I give that much thought to. Like Wall St and real estate they go up and down. I have benefited from both and been bitten by both. I like what I own. I will continue to buy at market prices knowing presently the cards might become less valuable in the short term. What I have seen in vintage is that whatever I have overpaid for in the past is worth far more today, even as prices adjust.

I don’t disagree, but with every asset class I can think of generally dropping at the moment, seems a bit of a stretch to argue that vintage cards won’t be affected.

If you are a pure collector, prob not a big concern. If you also collect as an investment, may affect you a bit more.

Obviously if you are looking to add something pricey, a drop in the market is a good thing.

Now that’s only I could get rid of these Zion Williamson NFTs …..

In the short term, I expect a general drop, but no crash. Personally, I am not buying common material, my Topps want list is just sitting and waiting right now. I'm 'going strong' on material that rarely comes to market for my boxing collection, but commodity cards that are available every day, I've sat out this year as prices have already fallen and I think will continue to.

We may get some nice price reductions coming. The Fed appears to be aiming to kill the job market to make people cut spending and help their "transitory" inflation problem the government made, and the White House and Congress appears to want to continue to spend like there is no tomorrow whatsoever. The economy is probably going to worsen over the next year again, which will have to have an impact on the vast majority of cards. It's going to be a long and ugly fight to reign in inflation while the government is pouring absurd amounts of billions into its agenda, and then try to resurrect the stock market and bring the jobs back.

Then again, I root for a total collapse of the card market. As an all collect no invest, I'd love for them to become worthless so I may buy more for less.

stuff that sells every day/month will take a hit. the market went bananas but the rare stud cards you might see once a year are strong imo

The biggest thing holding me back is that the items I’m looking to pick up used to sell for $30-$50k. Today they sell for $200-$300k. And my budget doesn’t go very far with price tags at that level.

I am in the same boat as you are on some items. That there are good deals to be had in a market that is correcting does not prevent me from pulling the trigger. Not having the money to pull the trigger is what prevents me.

At some point, it just gets boring, no offense to anyone.

I’m not clever enough to come up with OC posts.

Meanwhile, back at the collecting ranch, I'm super excited to finally close on a
Rare Bird that a member has been graciously holding for me.

Ain't that good news, man, ain't that news. :)

Tomorrow let's talk about whether cards are investments for the 973rd time, shall we? :D

I find a lot of threads to be incredibly boring. Like discussions of Magee error cards and polar bear backs on T cards. When I see a thread about them I don’t read them. Problem solved!

I agree. The joke you quoted is at my own expense.

I’ll follow it up with a thread about how I have noticed that there appear to be different brands of cigarettes advertised on T206’s, not just one.

This is a great post for us collectors. Thanks for sharing Phil.


.

PSA vs. SGC. Rewind, repeat 1000 times.

I see little drive up coffee shops springing up everywhere, will the economy effect them. My nephew is replacing his small business parking lot cost $75,000. When will people start walking into junk food restaurants rather than wrapped around the building waiting in the drive through line using gas- on and on and on, look around-who cares-Why should we worry to much about the cardboard market--grading will fix it, especially 10's

I agree with much of what Phil said, but I think at least for "elite" cards there's been a general long term upward trend superimposed on the up and down cycles. I can't imagine for example we'll ever see certain price levels again for most Ruths and Cobbs and Wagners.

Good Sam Cooke knowledge Peter, I would expect nothing less.

Well, what color sticker from a fraud ring or total rando is attached to the slab? That’s where the real difference is.

He was the best.

I have just bought what I wanted not caring about the future value of them. Everything I have paid for, I felt they were worth what I paid for them. I quit trying to predict the future. The crystal ball didn't work so I put it in the closet.

Well said Bruce.

I've paid a bit too much judging by current values countless times, but it's mostly worked out over the long term.

Finally, a card for this thread, and a good one too.

Sorry to hear we’re boring you. Did you have a titillating subject you’d like to discuss instead?

T206 background colors for sure. PSA v SGC, absolutely. Most underrated player is always good. Thinking on it still.

Sounds like it’s time to step up and start a new thread!

I’m down for the Sam Cooke thread. That seems promising.

My favorite T206 background color is still fuchsia. I think Barbie pink goes better with the art style on a Goudey though.

My favorite Sam Cooke song is "Wonderful World", though you really can't go wrong with Sam Cooke.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_UrVgmA964

Favorite error card?
Is it too soon to talk about strategy for "Nationals"?

It is hard to imagine a list where I would rank that any lower than five. Absolutely perfect song. It's such a great song that even the bubble gummy Herman's Hermits version is great.

Much like real estate this is true, rare vintage pre war is like beachfront property. If a Cobb I want was 3k but is now 6k the only question is can I afford it, because at the next up cycle it will be worth 9-12k.

It's the type of simple but sweet song I love and you don't hear much of anymore. I'm a sucker for the classic era Motown. It's a hard song for anyone to ruin in a cover.

Look up the Teskey Brothers from Australia and report back.

For me, My Girl is on the same level. Very few if any songwriters on the level of Sam Cooke and Smokey Robinson.

My Girl and It's Growing from the same album. Basically anything with David Ruffin on lead vocals through around 1973. Ben King's Stand By Me I can never get tired of either.

Yeah I was going to add that David Ruffin was otherworldly. The orchestration of the song is brilliant too, the whole thing is perfect.

I'm one song deep on YouTube and this is straight fire already. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBFZNVxG86o

Thank you. I really liked Leon Bridge's first album that did fairly well and is basically a soundalike record of Sam Cooke.

His gruff voice is inelegantly perfect. His "I am My Brother's Keeper" album with his brother is one of my favorite overlooked gems. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfOroYBb0uY

Eddie Kendricks was no slouch either. Get Ready is so classic.

Okay. I guess music is it.

If we’re going there, then we should probably talk about the Man, the Poet, the Master Storyteller, the Legend.

Best song by Sting. His work with the Police is fair game, because why not?

Two divisions:

1) Songs everyone knows because they’re on the radio every day.
2) All the rest.

I’ll start first:

1) Roxanne. You might question the wisdom in selecting a song about a lady of the evening, but I would argue that this is actually about true love and seeing someone for who they really are, and not based on their imperfections and mistakes in life. You might argue for Tomorrow We’ll See since it covers the same themes, but then again, they don’t play it on the radio, so it’s disqualified.

2) Seven Days. I mean, if you’re going to have an ultimatum, then you at least need time to think about it. Plus anything with unusual time signatures is bound to be worth bonus points. And the fact that we are left with a cliffhanger, wondering how he actually responded to the ultimatum? Pure gravy.

Another excellent pick. I’d let you DJ my parties

Interesting that you would think of stiing in those terms. Not being critical at all. Just that I am a bit older and I would speak that way of Bob Dylan and Paul Simon for example, but not Sting. Each generation/age group see it differently.

Insane…..sorry, but it is….

Going back to the original topic but have no problem with the latter.

Resetting and having some auctioneers bidding up others lots on eBay and elsewhere to buy for their next dates. There are the pitfalls to caution against.

Then, of course, shill bidding.

This thread in songs:

Card values will fall: well it’s too late baby now it’s too late.

Card values will go up: I’m walking on sunshine and don’t it feel good

Card values will stagnate: you’re still the same

I’m a superior collector who just collects for love and doesn’t care about values anyway: We're still having fun and you're still the one

I predict the market will go up or down or stagnate. Some people will get great deals, some will make stupid buys, and some will do nothing at all. We done?

Soon to be under water? :p

a tale as old as time, will always see a thread like this every year or so..

No worries. If it makes you feel any better, your preferred artists aren’t particularly inspiring to me. I mean, I’ll take Me and Julio Down By The Schoolyard, but probably leave all of Dylan.

I went to walmart the other day and decided I would go see if they had a box of cards I could open. A year ago you could not find one. Well, there had to be 200 boxes on the shelf. I couldn't believe it. Guess the new card market is taking a hit.

I love my latest addition, with more coming to me similar to this, and we know who this guy is. I am grabbing everything I can on him for numerous reasons. How about his performance last night? Guess we know who still owns “King” James, none other than the greatest……….

Don’t ask how it got a 7 either, but it is graded by PSA & sealed from the era that matters!!

Don't care much about the shiny shit.
Not even a little bit.
But I know one thing is true.
Vintage will stick like glue.
What a wonderful world it would be.

it not really the new cards...cards are like the gum these days..the inserts or 'rarer' version of the base cards are the cards

And to me Roxanne is a good song but I can live without the rest. I think it's a matter of what we grew up with sticks the most.

Really? No love for:

Every breath you take
Fields of gold
Every little thing she does is magic
King of pain
If I ever lose my faith in you
Don't stand so close to me
If you love somebody
Brand new day
It's probably me
We'll be together

And those are just the ones they play on the radio all the time...

None of them do it for you?

Every breath you take - Will always be a classic even if overplayed
Fields of gold - Horrible
Every little thing she does is magic -Decent+
King of pain - Better than decent
If I ever lose my faith in you - Hurts my ears
Don't stand so close to me - Decent
If you love somebody - Not great, not horrible
Brand new day - Not great work
It's probably me - No idea what this is
We'll be together - Horrible

I was 13 when Synchronicity came out so I have fond memories of songs from that album. Sting solo is not my cup of tea and in my opinion, very overrated.

The new card market is doing well, Topps and Panini have increased supply to meet the new demand and aren't having the same massive delays from Covid regulations in getting product made, out the door, and shipped in a timely manner (like all the 2021 sets released months into 2022).

Whether it will continue to do so is an open question. I don't see why vintage would outperform the top modern cards of top stars the buying market will have memories of. I doubt buying high end Lebron will really backfire over the long haul.

And,

Bob Dylan >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Sting

All right. I guess I'm among philistines...

And I'm okay with that. Enjoy your Dylan.

I know the songs, I don't dislike them, just wouldn't be on my play list.

If Dylan is uncultured and unartistic philistinism, then I am a happy Philistine ;)

What do you consider his best work? I guess most hard core fans would choose Highway 61 Revisited or Bringing it All Back Home but my favorite is probably Blood on the Tracks.

I wonder if guys on Sam Cooke and Bob Dylan collector chat boards comment about the state of the market for their mementos and artifacts and then other guys call them out on how boring an issue that is and how it's been beaten to death and then for some reason start steering the discussion towards variations in T206 tobacco cards?

Just wondering.

I think his best is the Freewheelin' Bob Dylan, The Times They Are A Changin' and Blood on the Tracks. Blood on the Tracks I have probably played the most.

Nashville Skyline is a favorite LP, but I do not think it is objectively all that good, I just like the country sound of that recording personally. I also really like his fairly recent music. "I Contain Multitudes" from a couple years ago is a beautiful poem and a favorite now (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU-e...joWaUg0GKoL-UV). Tangled Up In Blue and Boots of Spanish Leather are probably my two most played tracks from him.

I get why people don't like him, he is really bad at actually singing from an objective standpoint, but I love literature and poetry and so he really does it for me. He has a wonderful way of piecing together images and metaphors into an oft vague but meaningful whole.

I am sure they also sometimes wander off into other things and have a good time together. I am sorry for partaking in the hijacking. Come sing and dance and be merry with us

Totally.

And are you admitting that you wander over to those boards to talk about T206s?

If phrasing and connection not just voice make a great singer, he is a great singer. Billie Holiday comes to mind. Judy Garland. Jagger.

I think that needs a qualification as to only Dylan recordings prior to completely losing his voice.

I have seen The Police and Sting solo, also seen Dylan but I would fully advise against it as he is now a barely understandable shadow of his youth. If we are comparing albums Dylan is a genius, if you are planning your summer concerts skip it and spend on some vintage vinyl.

front 6 song set for the Concert for Bangladesh is also IMO among his best work, live with George Harrison and Leon Russell up frpmt with him. His voice sounds a little different, I don't think I have heard him sing quite that way on any other album.