National pricing
 

Will be real interesting. Anyone who doesn’t realize prices have come down hard in many corners of the hobby isn’t paying much attention. I’ve mostly been buying memorabilia, primarily ticket stubs and photos lately. Prices are down pretty hard on most of what I look at. Things that exploded up to 7-8k are now down 50% or more. If sellers are going to stick to prices from last winter and then add a National premium on to that …. going to hear a lot of stories like “good crowd …. didn’t sell as much as I wanted”. I dont envy sellers in this environment. Seems the economic pressures have now really impacted the hobby significantly. Will alway be the multi millionaires buying the $800,000 cards …. but the guy making $75,000 or $100,000 is not buying the way he used to. I see the same stuff sitting on ebay and sitting and sitting. No, no one is going to pay you $5000 for a ticket stub that just sold at an AH for $1700. No one is going to pay you $12,000 for the photo you bought last year for $2700.

Although I won’t be attending, I wonder if the smart strategy this year would be to attend later in the week and see if sellers are more willing to negotiate (assuming they’re holding firm on prices earlier in the show). Of course, that would be if you’re not looking for super rare items which I’d think could go day 1.

Super rare will always sell. If it's a card people spend years chasing someone will open the wallet quickly. It's the PSA 4 and 5s that we see in every auction that are really hard to price in this market.

Hey all. This will be my first National as well. I'll be looking for 1914 Cracker Jacks and a few other pre-War vintage. I was planning to use VCP for a starting point on prices, but also hoping to get some good value for paying in cash. I'm more of a negotiator than haggler, so hoping good vibes are on my side.

The vintage market is strong no one is giving anything away no one ,,dont know what steve is looking at ??

I follow Gehrig cards to what some would say it a rather obsessive degree. It's like 95% of my collection. Prices have softened. In some cases rather significantly. Here's one rather striking example.

Heritage just sold a 1925 Gehrig Exhibits 3(MK) for $75,000
LOTG sold a 1925 Gehrig 3(MK) Exhibits in March 2021 for $160,000

Just like the stock market . . . not every stock moves in tandem.

I'm still seeing record sales on high grade 1950's stuff. Stars, commons, doesn't matter. High condition centered cards always have a strong market.

Signed cards have never been higher!

Signed 52t May's psa 3...40k!!!

You realize this is/was a 3-5k card?

Or no the "market was wrong" for 30 years and "just discovered" it is worth 75-125k?

5k to 75k in less than a decade Certainly isnt "crashing"

Who said anything was crashing?

I just think for the vast majority of cards sellers are not going to get 2021 prices for them. Big boy cards will continue to do ok largely. People who pay $200,000 for a card aren't too concerned with gas prices and rent going up. But supposedly the economy is the number one concern of most Americans by far. If that’s the case would be awfully peculiar if our corner of the world is somehow unaffected.

Rich people will continue to buy new BMWs. Will people who aren’t rich going to continue to buy new Toyotas and KIAs?

I have no experience in the world of 5- and 6-figure cards, but for 3- to 4-figure prewar cards, recent AH results and the bst here sure seem to indicate an overall downward trend in prices from 1-2 years ago.

But apparently people who only focus on the marquis waterfront cards don’t see this.

That Gehrig example is pretty dramatic and, I think, surprising.

Market got a little frothy last year. We were all bored and inside all day trying to keep ourselves amused. Now things are a little more “normal”.

My intent was not to dump on the market. But just to say that while there is usually a National or big show premium tacked onto to nice stuff, I suspect this year there will be a lot of inflated asks. I hope seller’s get what they ask. Good for them. But for people setting up with cases full of cool shit we do t have a show at all.

I hope I find a lot of cool shit to buy. I also hope I make massive money playing cards. If they both happen I will be the happiest guy in AC.

Might even hit the Boardwalk after midnight. :):D

Prices on 90s basketball have absolutely cratered. I suspect this is more broadly the case in many modern segments.

Whatever the reality, based on reports I have heard since time immemorial, I expect people going to AC will see mostly aspirational prices at least until the end of the show.

It's down pretty hard out there, not crashing though

People are going to be spending like it’s no tomorrow; the vintage card market, significantly higher end, is Stronger than ever and will see higher and Higher sold prices. The consumer who buys vintage higher end cards is in very Sound financial shape.

Modern, I have no idea…the current is the same as Bally’s; it’s a Casino.

As someone trying to add mid tier HOFers, I have not seen the market move at all. I am actually surprised as I figured these would fall hard.
The prices I am seeing are still $300-$500 for something graded "G" with solid presentation:
Joss, Rube, Bender, Baker, etc. I won't be paying those prices, but I don't expect any for less at the Natty.

Perhaps the ultimately bellwether is $900 for any of the 3 Lajoies in "G".
have not seen these come down, will see.

I agree Steve, I get what you’re saying however, there will be a lot of inflated asking prices; I've spoken with several larger dealers about this. They told me they’d instead hold on to their material at high asking prices because said dealer made so much over the past two years they’re OK with holding. They further said the market would get hot again, and the cards would be just as high, if not higher, so they’re not letting go.

Every thread needs some cards. Love early Gehrig cards from the 20s. Here are a couple color variations that you don’t see often.

Those Gehrigs are in no danger of crashing anytime soon. Beautiful amazing cards.

The true indicator will be REA which opens tomorrow. My guess is that prices on better baseball material will do just fine. But, like they say, time will tell.

There is one constant about the National, outside of an arrest or two. Prices are overrrrpriced. That, however, is down from overrrrrrrrrrpriced. The word "bargain" is rarer than any rarity.

If you are going to the National looking for deals, you will be sorely disappointed. Prices have soften, but you never know that from dealers.

My prices at national.
 

Honestly my stuff is priced between don’t care if it doesn’t sell and should sell because it’s less than ebay or vcp and I’ll discount off that. The stuff that’s high I Ike so I don’t mind keeping. The other stuff I might still like but not as much and have to sell Some things to pay bills.

If we're talking about rare cards, say less than 10 examples, the "good deal" is access to that card. The network is what's valuable, "I know a guy who knows a guy" etc. Price at that point is secondary depending on how bad you want that card. Are there good financial deals at that point, I believe there are, I had a friend find me two cards at the National that are pretty rare for what they were at a negotiated price I was happy with, but he knew the dealers and they knew him.

For me the problem in recent years wasn’t the prices; I expected them to be high. The problem was that there was virtually no scarce 19th century baseball material except on the auction house tables. Hopefully, that will not be the case for those attending this year, but that would surprise me.

Fine idea, as long as you are packing.

I know during the amazing run up junk era was selling like crazy. Stuff I couldn't give away was suddenly selling like crazy. Now it has really slowed down. Not back to can't give it away but nothing like big run up.

Richard M always has a nice selection of rare 19th century cards and TIK still comes up with some stuff.

while I agree that many segments of the hobby are down from their pandemic highs...while the cream of the crop still sets records when they transact. The national is ALWAYS full of mostly overpriced cards...especially the good stuff! Why should this year be any different?

Same as it ever was!

sometimes the best move is get the guy’s card and reach out to him in a week with your fingers crossed. has worked for me. has also not worked.

As an exhibitor, I never expect to get 100% of my asking price for most items. I am even negotiable on the rarest of the rare.

I tend to sell at 85% to 90% of my asking price, and this year I am showcasing ten showcases or more (all locked) of the common to the rare. But I am also focusing on significantly rarer items that could feasibly sell in the $10,000 to $100,000 range or more.

Some of those items I am not that negotiable but it depends on whether I have a good show or not. You never know.

I have not experinced this decline in prices that the rest of the market keeps talking about. Well maybe in non sports cards and sets. I expect to have a good show and if not, I will curb my buying during the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

Steve Sabow
DynamicTwo@aol.com
914-522-3853

Booth 1100 6 booths in the main entrance

Report back in this thread next week how you did please.

im guessing you have better stuff than most!!!!

I guess that I work hard every year to find rare items. I would say I am in the top 10 percent, but what does that really mean.

The last time we did AC, I barely made my goal, but I hope I will do that quickly this year.

I am making a display in 2 of my showcases of Topps Test cards, wrappers and unopened packs. I also will have many proof cards as well.

If you are a collector of test cards, you really need to see my display, It should be interesting.

In fact, if I don't sell it before the show, I will be highlighting some really rare Topps test packs including only the second 1968 Topps Test Basketball pack ever found. Imagine pulling a Wilt Chamberlin test card that PSA lists at $50,000+ in a PSA 8. Imagine a 9 or 10?

I am also exhibiting a 1968 Topps 3D Baseball pack and a 1968 Topps All Star Baseball Plaks pack. Among others!!!

I just revised my packs for sale list about an hour ago, so contact me if you want a copy.

Steve Sabow
DynamicTwo@aol.com
914-522-3853

Thanks Steve for the insights. And if you can point that out to all the people on eBay who are outbidding me I would appreciate that too.

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

Some prices are coming down but it is mot consistent and sometimes the next auction the prices look like they are going back up depending the bidders and card.
Right now it might seem a little soft for some but is that because of summers auction fatigue? Every summer there seems to be a ton of auctions at the same time plus Nationals and there is only so much money to go around for all those cards. I am finding that as I bid on cards another auction opens with cards that I want more than what I am currently bidding on(wish I could get them all) so I stop bidding on that card or I am not bidding at all until I see what is coming in the next auction so I do not miss out.

Related to eBay I find that many people put their collection on eBay just for viewing and not really interested in selling but just a place to show off so they put prices that no one would want to pay. I have seen many cards on their for years and years and literally seen them not only not sell but they raise the price

I think the February to April 2021 period was a peak speculative run in many parts of the market. Prices corrected in the next few months and to me appear to be steady to strong still since then. One reason is that many interesting cards in PSA 8-10s (thinking 80’s hockey and basketball) never gave people reason to grade them and they weren’t readily available before the price runup, so they hit a frenzy but then supply eventually (and PSA backup loosening) caught up and prices took a decent hit.

Of course the more rare and vintage, the less available and its hard to see too much evidence of the correction. Lower grade Ruths are still strong, but some of the prices in that period were a bit high perhaps. Something like a Gehrig is 3(mk) might have been a fever pitch auction, but excepting that, the Gehrig card remains strong. It probably has more volatility than others because it was so neglected for so long and has had a huge run.

That said, it’s hard to see that the general harsh repricing of equities and bonds and many assets will not spillover to take some of the fluff out of cards here. Thus far it still seems generally strong.

Ten years from now we will all be looking at these prices and saying to ourselves man that was cheap back then.

All the good stuff is going up up and away. Get it before it's out of reach.

I would bet the big '52 Mantle at Heritage will help fuel vintage prices. Don't see how the Mantle auction would have a negative affect of nice vintage stuff. I am still having hard time pulling the trigger on similar such cards I used to buy, but now the gap may even widen. My recent motto, "don't sell what you have, just be sure to keep it, 'cause you probably aren't going to replace it."

The Topps era cards that show up most often in the auctions are generally down about 50% from their peak. It's a fool's errand trying to predict what they'll do over the next year, but it's easy to predict that sellers are not going to be extrapolating from the past 17 months of downward slide in setting their prices today.

Check out today's article in the Athletic about the current state of the card market. Good stuff

Haven't read the whole thing yet but skeptical when seeing this early comment in the article:"What is happening now, those within the industry told The Athletic, is that some cards are coming down in price — market corrections, mostly in resale — and the overall market is slightly cooling off of 2021’s record year for retail and resale."

If looking at the hobby as a whole, not vintage, I'd suggest that MOST cards are coming down in price and the overall market is SUBSTANTIALLY cooling off of 2021's record year.

Pretty much everyone interviewed in the story has a vested interest to maintain that the market is healthy despite the recent downturn.

ya weirdly written stating over and over the market is healthy...yet noting numerous areas where prices have come down. quite verbose as well.

Damm. Starting to think I was the only person seeing this. Lots of people told me I was dreaming or crazy.

Personally, I think the Athletic article (Link) is very reasonable in its analysis, and I agree with a lot of it. With the stock market dropping significantly, inflation, recession, etc, it makes sense that the card prices should also drop. However, there are still a lot of folks with plenty of money. The iconic or really rare prewar cards that everyone wants are not going down. (Modern is a different story with too much artificially created supply such as refractor variations.) I remember a few years back saying that I was waiting to buy the E98 Black Swamp Cobb PSA 9 when it hits $3-5K. That was a pipe dream that is never happening. I seriously doubt that the 1921 E121 Ruth in PSA 3 will ever come back to 10K or the 1915 CJ Cobb PSA 4 will similarly come back to $10-15K. Everyone wants these cards for their collection, including me!

Here's my recent Gehrig pickup that I paid out the wazoo for.

My motto as well…

I don’t see a Richard M on the dealer list.

It is not just eBay. Check out the auction section here. We have a guy that starts stuff off at prices WAY higher than eBay BIN listings that rearely if ever sell. I am waiting for hm to list a half bottle of Crisco for $12 plus shipping and say it is below eBay comps.:rolleyes::D:D:D

I think that's a good assessment of most of the market..."higher than 2019 but lower than 2020-21".

I just want to say, unless you are looking for something specific, saying you can't find items at good prices seems insane. I got to walk around for about an hour after I set up yesterday and I could've spent my budget 5 times over just on things I could flip immediately.

Love it.

He is most likely set up with a Scott B and Jay M most likely will be around to

I picked a few cards at good prices

Steve, how are sales at the National?

I guess it depends on what you were looking for. When items were priced in cases at 2X what the SAME item closed for in last weeks Heritage auction - its not even worth inquiring. It was like that on just about every 1954 Hank Aaron on the show floor. I walked in with the intention of buying one in a 3/4 range. I walked out just saying I'll hit one up online for a thousand dollars cheaper.

I came close to pulling a trigger on a PSA 3.5 at $3900. But the dealer wouldn't budge. An SGC 3 closed in Heritage a week ago for $2300 and a PSA 3 closed last week for $2300. The PSA 3.5 was about what you'd expect for a 3 range but had a decent sized stain in the top corner.

The dealer was actually insulted I asked for a better price. He said "Its the cheapest one in town. I'm shocked it hasn't sold yet"

LOL

Edit to add: I didn't even bother mentioning the PSA 4s in cases all over for $6000 etc. I just walked by those.

How much are some of these guys carrying around with them in cash ? I can't imagine going to the bank and asking for $100k + in cash .

There were people carrying more than that and others were carrying cards that were very high end and showing them to people trying to sell it to dealers or other buyers. They were also trying to trade.

Some of the dealers had actual huge safes (approx 6 foot tall) and as they transacted they put the money in them for safe keeping.

There were a lot of cards over 100k and a lot more there for sale.

So carrying $100k in cash would not get you many of high end Mantles I saw or other cards that were $350k or more

Many dealers took check only if you had someone that could vouch for you that they knew and were comfortable with and some did PayPal FF but Cash is as king and many would not look at you if you did not have cash

I’ve never seen more hundred dollars being counted by dealers before in all my years of going to the national. People were spending everywhere. Recession, that’s comical to me, sure as hell is not in the card market.

I'm sure these dealers are paying taxes on all this cash !

Also, been watching on YouTube transactions with minors ( under 18) selling and trading cards for thousands of dollars ( are these transactions legal and binding).

National
 

Every dealer I spoke to said they were having a great show on Thursday and Friday at the National. The crowds were crazy both days, but I would estimate that the crowd on Thursday was larger than Friday's. I thought most dealers had their prices for cards from the 1940's to 1970s price generally at retail. Although the prime Rookie cards of those years were listed higher. I did find that most dealers were willing to accept less than their original asking price if you asked politely and did not ridicule their original prices. Dealers were even willing to move off their asking prices for Mantles. I got a high grade 1968 Mantle I needed for my set by asking what the dealer's best price was and he knocked 15% off what I thought was a good market price to begin with. My favorite "pricing" incidents were watching how dealers responded to people who argued with them that their prices were unreasonable! Most of the dealers I saw dealing with this confrontation tried to explain calmly at how they valued their cards. I only saw one exchange where the potential buyer swore at a dealer because he thought the dealer should have taken his offer. But, there were a lot of people arguing rather than haggling over prices. First time I had noticed this at a show. Probably not that unusual nowadays, but somehow I had not noticed before. Many, Many teenage kids and younger, almost all collecting modern shiny stuff. I also noticed a pattern that people of Asian heritage seemed to be overwhelmingly interested in recent modern card dealers tables. Just an observation that was hard to miss.

I had the pleasure of meeting SB1 at his table and it had a wonderful group of cards. A diverse group of 19th century cards that was easily the best table of items for sale at the show. I had my grandson who had me hunting down pokemon cards for his collection so I did not have much time to say hello to many old friends but we had a great time.
I got to show 1230 on Friday and was nervous about parking but got a great spot. Got 1 autograph that took up alot of our time. But I was very happy to find a ton of fun card products and activities for my grandson. Panini kid case lots of promos and swag to break up the time. I was happily surprised by how many more young folks (with cash to spend) were at this national vs 2016 last time national was here in AC. A large number of corporate booths pushing Card pricing data packages. I am 100% that that will thin out quite a bit by the next time national is back here in NJ..

There were definitely deals to be had, if you looked in the right places. I found some 52 Topps commons for 4-7 dollars a piece, granted they were in rougher condition, but that's still hard to find nowadays, with the popularity of the set.

I was able to secure two Mantles for very fair prices, especially the 67 that I picked up today, in a PSA 5. It took a lot of searching, and some haggling but patience was definitely key. Were there some booths that were overpriced in my opinion? Absolutely. But there's definitely some wiggle room if you go about things the right way.

Thanks, Justin!

Great report, thanks! I'm guessing there's some correlation between the actual arguing over prices, as opposed to haggling or negotiating, and the influx of younger collectors/flippers, which is good news otherwise. Those who have been around for awhile learn there's a right way and a wrong way to try to get a price down, and which side ALWAYS wins when the discussion turns ugly.

You are correct
 

Hank,

You are right. The people I saw/heard arguing over dealer pricing were all younger collectors, under 40 years old. It was quite interesting hearing them tell the dealers why their asking prices were "way out of line."
Those younger people apparently never heard the adage that you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. By the way, I did not see anyone who was arguing with a dealer about their prices actually succeed in making a deal.
Maybe if they keep having those experiences they will learn how to haggle calmly with being offensive.

Rich

When I was the age of some of these "collectors" I borrowed a quarter from my dad to bike to the local party store to buy a few packs, now these kids are holding handfuls of 100 dollar bills !

Rich it’s the internet social media transaction behavior, most are keyboard warriors. They talk massive Crap, they bully people on social media into lowering their prices. Usually never works in person with seasoned dealers.

bullying
 

Johnny,

You are probably right. It definitely did seem to have some element of bullying involved with the way they were talking to the dealer. The one particular dealer in mind looked to be in his 60's. I do not think he was terribly intimidated by the youngster who was yelling at him that he had unreasonable prices. In fact the dealer's patience was more than I would have had with the guy. I would have waved him away once he started yelling.

Rich

I hope people chill out and are humble themselves, it’s only cards. If you don’t like the dealers price there are only about 500 more tables at the show.

I just assumed everything could be gotten with a 10%-20% discount from marked price
and did minor haggling with that window. Respectful of dealer and that was not doable it was not doable. Zero reason to lecture or scream at someone.

Gehrig Rookie
 

ZERO comparison between those 2 cards. For accuracy, the “all in” pricing was $87K vs. $192K. The difference? The $87K example had obtrusive writing on the verso - a blatant MK version. The $192K example’s MK was virtually invisible on the verso - could not even see it unless you used ultra-heavy magnification. The bidders for the LOTG 3-MK treated it as a virtually clean PSA 3.

prices
 

On the cards I was looking at 1940s-early 1970s, I found that most dealers would take offers of 10-15% off asking prices at the National.

The only real right a dealer has is to price his cards as he sees fit. It is the way our capitalistic system works. Bad behavior is not the way to score deals.

And I presume you’re missing an “f” here?

Yes
 

Yes

I would discard all data points from Feb and Mar 2021 when making observations about the current state of the market. Those two months had extreme outliers in the data. The market artificially spiked temporarily and then immediately crashed after.

+1. I believe most dealers build 20%, give or take, into their prices for most items, and expect that negotiations will end up at that level. I did, anyway, and was always kind of floored when someone would say, "I'll take it," right off the bat. I figured they were new to the hobby or just shy about wheeling and dealing and willing to pay a premium to avoid it. I didn't like inflating my prices this way, I'd much rather have put my bottom line price on everything, but quickly learned how the game was expected to be played. As a buyer, I would never offer more than a 20% discount as to not offend, although on occasion, like at the end of the show, a bigger cut would be offered by the dealer in response to my standard question, "What's your very best on this?"