Thought experiment: You have $25,000 what to do.
 

I'd like to throw out a thought experiment to members:
You have $25,000 to spend in the next 3 months and another $25,000 in the following 3 months.

What names, sets, eras, are you buying?

There's economic pain around the corner for most folks, hell my buddy just put $300 in his gas tank of his stupid ass truck. My friend owns a taco stand and now has to charge 10 bucks a taco to make a living.

My personal feeling? Cats here have known about pre-war for decades, new money discovered us 6-8 months ago and it's a brutal landscape now. So, my 50k over six months is pretty simple. Anything Cobb, for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, the earlier the better.

I'm probably shooting myself in the foot here but I love this sub so please don't outbid me on Cobby for the next 6 months.

I pay off the motorhome; can now afford the fuel; go out Cobb hunting.
Agree, Phil.
The motorhome thing gave me a giggle.
Ben
"I love baseball history backstory; especially when it involves cards."

https://www.net54baseball.com/pictur...ictureid=32488

Ben, you need to change the name of your rig to the Cobbmobile.

Ruth, Cobb, Jackie, Mantle And Mays. No one else. The best nicest Centered Example you can afford. No odd ball, just regular issue.

When you buy quality you lower your chance of losing, when you get cute you get your ass handed to you.

Ha!!! Love it Phil.
To blather the point further; I had no say, in the formal name, in the first place! lol. The former tow vehicle (my 2500 van and 2nd vehicle now) has "Santo 10" plate on the front. She named it the "Banxten".
And so it shall be.
Ben

This is sage advice. I would recommend a "flaw free" PSA 4 - 4.5 Green Cobb or PSA 5 -5.5 Other Cobb (Red, Bat On, Bat Off) with your first 25K. And a 1933 Goudey Ruth 4 to 4.5 with your second 25K.

It's kind of like buying Apple stock instead of the latest "hot" stock that may (and most likely will) fade.

Assuming you mean strictly for appreciation/investment- Babe Ruth. End of conversation (but not a cartoonish strip card)

I have a feeling Cobb>Ruth over the next 6 months in regards to appreciation

I would put all 50k into the S and P 500 in the next 6 months. Sit back, relax, and watch your money grow.

You can't do that, you have to invest it in cards over the next 6 months with 25k per 3 months.

Good luck with the S&P when the Fed is unwinding its $9T balance sheet and raising rates substantially in the face of significant inflation pressures. Hope I am wrong since most of us (myself included) have a vested interest in the stock market doing well.

Who knows but at least once a week for the past 20 years I get some doomsday prophecy from someone selling a newsletter about how it's all about to go to hell.

Can we stay on topic please? What would you invest in Over the next 6 months Peter?

I would try and find the “under appreciated Ruth Cards”. They have all been going up but some like the 1921/22 Ruth throwing pose have been spiking for an extended time and have gotten to point where they will go up in value but not as much as others. And the 1933 has done the same
So I would look for 1921 to 1928 for some comparative values(the Oxford confectionery, the American Caramel holding ball, the exhibit postcards, )


Cobbs are also good, real good but to me Ruth first

Casey Just Park your $25k in those 5 Names I mentioned above with a strong focus on centering with the best grade you can get for your money. I’d do 3/4 cards in the $5,000-$7000 range cards in those names. At that those levels I believe you’re most liquid especially for in person non AH sales down the road. More average guys can afford those cards then can say one $25k card. If you need the cash you won’t have to give to a AH get a check nah nope you go to one major show Philly, Chantilly, White Plains and you will sell it :-)



Do it again 3 months from now, You will be happy.

Unfortunately I'm a collector and not a seller. I wouldn't invest in Robinson or Mantle in the next 6 months. Agree on the Ruth 21 exhibits, 33 Goudey has taken a rest. Early Cobb is where I see the greatest appreciation.

Well, I am not a doomsday prophet who thinks things are going to hell. I hope the economy and the stock market do well and that the Fed and Congress get inflation under control. That will require some hard choices that I don't know if the American people are willing to accept. I am a patriot and stakeholder in this country.

Ruth. If you want to diversity, Gehrig, Mantle, DiMaggio, early Jackies.

I'll buy Gehrig as a secondary but not the other three over the next 6 months

I would have 2 manikins in my house. One with a Wade Boggs Red Sox game worn jersey and the other with a Wade Boggs Yankees game worn jersey.:D

E102 Cobb.
All the time.
E98 Cobb Blue
Cobb - Orange Borders; just because.
Ben

25k
 

1948 Leaf Jackie. Maybe 2.

Investment
 

Strictly for investment and not for love of the hobby? Short term or long term investment?

When Aaron died we all saw the PSA 7s rookies run up to nearly $30k then really cool off.

I suspect we will see the same with 52 Topps Mays and 55 Koufax rookie when they pass. If you want to throw in football; mix in some '58 Jim Browns best centering you can find.

Not enjoying the thought of this, but your question is about investment. If you assemble a nice group of multiple examples of each; you will make a nice profit if you sell right after.

As for longer term, I agree with the Ruth advice. It just keeps going up.
Centered Cobbs as well.

1933 Goudey Ruth, and the best looking card you can get. It’s the most popular Ruth and the one collectors want.

One ounce Pamp Suisse gold bars with assay cards.

I agree with Cobby and the Babe...
these aren't easy to find. As shown before, just got it in the last few months...not perfect but not too bad...

https://luckeycards.com/cobborange.jpg

Out of curiosity, why, specifically, Cobb’s E102 card?

I’m assuming it’s because E102 is associated with coming out in 1908, which would make it the first tobacco card (postcards and other larger issues aside).

Cool, Leon.
Thanks for sharing.
Ben

That is what I figured, but the E102 set is definitely not from 1908. Late 1909 at the earliest.

Casey - sorry for hijacking your thread.

My vote would go to Ruth cards that issued during his prime, especially his Exhibit cards.

His 1933 Goudeys are great, but I generally do not like cards that were issued at the tail end of a player’s career.

1990 Fleer Jose Uribe? The nice people trying to sell them have told me it's a great investment. :eek::eek::eek:

In all seriousness, I would chase the following players:

• Roberto Clemente
• Jackie Robinson
• Mickey Mantle
• Babe Ruth
• Willie Mays
• Hank Aaron
• Lou Gehrig

My experiences buying cards for investment purposes have taught me that I either get something so esoteric that I overvalue it and overpay accordingly, or when the time comes to sell I've grown attached and regret selling. With that in mind, I'd stick to something that I wouldn't mind keeping around, regardless of what the value does. Either the nicest 1933 Goudey #144 I could find, or handful of T206 HoFers.

Much like other investments, it depends on your goal.

If you stick to the blue chips, they will usually end up ahead by a few percent a year.

If you look at some cards that are what I call "2nd tier" likely there is more appreciation to be had. Over the last few years it was Mays and Aaron along with a few others as an example.


Just going with what everyone else knows, seldom allows one to beat the market.

Very interesting that Joe jackson name has not been mentioned his cards having been on a huge upswing and now his 1915 CJ Joe Jackson are really starting to jump and his m101-4 and 5 have steadily gone up over last 2 plus years

Yeah, good point. Besides Ruth, I think a strong place to go would be Cobb and Shoeless CJs.

investment cards
 

You beat me by an hour, Jeff! Joe Jackson is a great call. And Eric Perry,
I am with you! Trent King

I've been going to a few local shows the last 6 months it seems like Jackie Robinson has gained a ton of interest.
John

For more evidence, take a look at the current REA auction. There are 10 Goudey Ruths for sale in this auction. Always a market for these cards.

52T Mantle would be a good bet as well.

Honestly, I would go low grade and try to grab every iconic card that was on the cover of a price guide when I was a kid. So essentially my collection would look the same, lots of 1's to 3's, but more of them.

That said, more questions from the Mrs on "So when are you going to sell all of these?!"

So I might have to ship her off to a spa with some of the $50k as a diversion, perhaps in the same spot as the national?!?!?

Though the spas in Rosemont are probably not up to snuff.

The 1920s Exhibits of Ruth-Gehrig-Cobb-Johnson still have some relative bargains but they are rising fast. I'd also look at Fro-Joy, Babe Ruth Candy, and similar Ruth-related issues that have yet to really move. Also, as a purely contrarian play, some of the Star Michael Jordan early cards that rose like crazy in the wake of the documentary but have now fallen substantially back to earth. As a short-term play, early Magic Johnson cards. There is the series on HBO about the Showtime Lakers and Apple is releasing a documentary series on Magic next month. Figure a nice pop on his cards as casual sports fans become interested, as was the case with Jordan after the release of the docuseries on the Bulls. Sleeper there, as far as I am concerned is the Sportscasters pre-RC card.

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ohnson%201.jpg

Apologies for the lengthy post:

Phil, I do not believe in “timing the market” (probably bc my timing is terrible). Also, I am not a flipper. When I buy something for investment, whether it be a card, a stock, real estate, etc. it is because I am long on that asset and I believe it will safely increase in value over time. I also do not look for home runs. Rather, I weigh downside risk as much as upside. I am very happy with slow and steady appreciation with relatively nominal downside. I got back into collecting cards for investment (in 2015 after a decent-sized break), as a store of long-term wealth, not as a way to make short term money; the hobby seems to have different ideas. With that in mind, my "collection" is relatively narrowly-focused because (1) I want to be an expert in what I collect and it’s easiest to be an expert in a few things rather than many, and (2) I believe that only a small band of cards/collectibles fit my desired profile. Thus, I decided long ago I would focus on pre-war only, and buy primarily those sets and players that I felt were “blue chip” and/or had unique qualities/staying power:

T206, 1914 CJ, 1933 Goudey, e107, W600, Rose Co. PC, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson, and other issues of stud or unique players such as Young, Matty, Wajo, Cubs, Thorpe, Plank, Lajoie.

If you are looking to put $50k into cards over the next 6 months, this is where I would place it, and I would focus on rarest and/or best looking examples. For example, if you are going to buy a T206 Cobb, get a rare back. If you want a Cy Young, go after a W600 or Rose Co. If you want a Plank, get a T variation (bc they are rare) or the T206, which is likely now out of reach. I strongly believe all of the above will increase in value over time. I also think its ok to "over pay" for some of these things, especially when they are rare.

As far as longer-term items that I feel may be undervalued today, here are a few, in my opinion:

1. T205 set. T206 is getting unobtainable for most and T205 has most of the same players, lots of cool variations, etc. I think it is "silver" to T206's "gold"
2. T206 Magie error -- T206 has exploded, Magie is one of the "Big 4", and Plank has really taken off, meaning all those pining for Plank may now go Magie
3. T206 Demmitt and O'Hara Polar Bear -- these would be 5-6 in the T206 Big 6, so for similar reasons as above with Magie
4. T206 rare back HOFers, the rare the back the better and the better the HOFer the better (beating a dead horse with T206, but it is the greatest set of all time and appeals to the widest audience)
5. Lou Gehrig - his stuff just seems undervalued to me
6. Honus Wagner, especially portraits-- he is one of the best ever, part of the inaugural HOF class, and the face of the most famous collectable in the world. As the hobby gets bigger, his name will only grow and very few people can have "the" Wagner, but people will want a Wagner

If this $50k is a relatively once-in-a-lifetime event and you want to invest it long term in cards, go Babe Ruth. Ideally something from Red Sox days or early Yankee years. Cobb is amazing (like half my collection is Cobb), but Ruth is the King, plain and simple. Nothing is safer and more certain to increase over time than Babe Ruth.

If you cant find Ruth, I actually put both Wagner and Joe Jackson on par with Cobb for investment, considering how expensive most things Cobb have gotten over the passed few years. As mentioned,. Wagner is the face of the most famous collectible in a rapidly growing asset-class and Joe Jackson was a great player, has hollywood and hobby lore, has the 1914-15 CJ cards (iconic), and there are so few cards of his. Thus, if you cant find a Ruth that makes sense, I would suggest a portrait pose of Wagner or an E90-1, 1914 CJ, or some other Joe Jackson item

As others have mentioned, you can't go wrong with Ruth, Cobb, Mantle, Gehrig. I'd probably start with the nicest green Cobb and Goudey Ruth I could find for 25k each if I didn't already have one.

I'm currently looking for a 14 CJ Cobb, and would put the whole 50k into that card if that is allowed for this experiment.

I didn't notice anyone mention Honus Wagner, but with the t206 well out of reach for most these are my two favorite cards of his.

I may be on a small island here, but Im in the Ruth and Mantle camp.
I have several Cobbs and love them, but investing objectively , I don't think you can beat Ruth, and Mantle is not far behind in name recognition. Speaking of name recognition , as mentioned before, Gehrig will forever be associated w/ that terrible disease, thus will be a name that lives on maybe forever. His cards , US Caramel ,Goudey and Delong have allot of upside when compared to the biggest names in the game.
Again, just my $.02

Both great but that e90-2 is out of this world.

What do you guys think of the cobb turkey red as a stable investment moving forward? Trying to learn valuations on them but it seems like you could put 20k or more into a mid end one these days.

Solid, Jeff and Jim.

Ben
"I love baseball history backstory; especially when it involves cards."

I am happy with this Gehrig. Hope to add a few more like Cobb, Jackson, Wagner and Plank. Always wanted a Jackson RC. Would like a well presented A at some point.

My 2 cents - The best you can afford with very nice eye appeal:

T206 Cobb's (but not the red - too many)
Exhibits Ruth & Gehrig
1941 Playball Ted Williams
1960's Aaron & Mays in PSA 9
1970's Nolan Ryan in PSA 9

Those would be high up on the want-list with some headroom to grow.

I am sure this has been discussed before, but I am curious why Ted Williams always gets left off the list of most important "vintage" ballplayers. Clemente/Jackie make sense from a cultural perspective, and obviously Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb and Wagner are pre-war titans. But, how is Ted Williams not part of the Aaron, Mays, Mantle level? It is not one or two omissions, he is consistently on a lower tier when I have seen folks listing the best player cards by era (whereas, he is almost always Top 10 by baseball analysts compiling "best of" lists). As someone newer to vintage collecting than many of the long-timers here, I am wondering why his performance is viewed as less significant than his contemporaries in the 40s-50s.

I would go with a Lower grade green Cobb portrait (2-3) and probably a similarly graded 33 Ruth for the first $25k. The second $25k I’d spend on a 1921 Ruth in whatever condition I could get or a solid looking early 30’s Gehrig and a caramel Wagner.

Bill

Late 90's Griffey. 1998 Essential Credentials in the first 3 months, then a 99 Star Rubies in the second 3 months.

Just guessing, but if you look at the players you listed and Williams, the differences that stick out are that:

1) He did not play for a New York team.

2) He did not set, nor still holds, what many may consider as a significant all-time MLB record.

3) He was not the first/only one ever in MLB to set, achieve, or perform some significant mark, goal, or event.

He is the last player to hit .400, but he wasn't the first. He is the only player (that I know of) to literally miss almost 5 full seasons of MLB because of military service, which doesn't really count as a baseball related stat in people's minds. And yet, it is because of his military service that he likely missed out on setting, and still holding, some all-time MLB records. Had Williams not missed those 5 years for military service, and instead had 5 average Ted Williams years, he would very likely also be the current all-time MLB recordholder for RBIs and Runs Scored, and possibly for all-time Walks as well. And it probably would have boosted him, at least at some point in time, into the top 5/10 all-time category for some other batting records as well, including second all-time in HRs behind only Ruth, until Aaron would eventually pass him years later. And this is all in addition to the one all-time batting record he does hold for OBP. But for some reason fans don't seem to think of OBP as highly as they do RBIs, Runs Scored, and HRs. It is also possible he may have batted .400 for a season at least one more time as well, or who knows what else had he been able to play those 5 lost years. So, he does seem to get downplayed/forgotten a bit in relation to the other star players mentioned, and military service and not playing for a team in the right media market are likely big contributing factors as to why.

I do agree Williams and DiMaggio don't get the respect in the hobby that they deserve. Maybe because they didn't have many cards issued during their playing days.

Picked this one up a while back. I think signed vintage also has plenty of room to grow if looking for an investment opportunity.

Signed vintage hof names, signed HOF rcs and signed HOF hopefuls.

When you see 5 or 6 of the same card offered in one auction, it has to make one think about the supply aspect. People are selling in droves, buying from an auction and selling 6 months later or sooner. Irrational exuberance and no sign of prudence or reliance on past sales.


For years, the 2 most plentiful sets in every auction were t206 and 33 goudeys by the truckload. Plus people always saved the "good players"

I’m curious to hear thoughts on this as well, I was surprised to see his play ball rookie not included on more lists

Great card Jesse!

In addition to what others have said, Williams never won a championship, and other than a brief run in the late 1940s/early 1950s was stuck on second division teams his whole career. It wasn’t his fault; the Red Sox were terrible at developing pitchers (some things never change) but he still gets dinged for it.

Spread the money out, invest in a couple of ETF's that track lithium, VanEck's REMX for example, buy 100 shares of Williams Cos, WMB; buy stock in Occidental Petroleum OXY, Haliburton HAL, Apple AAPL, and Berkshire HathawayB BRK.B. After that, maybe a fellow should buy a few ungraded W514s and gather those before their value goes into low Earth orbit like other pre-war cards.

The play ball seems to be a hot card. My two cents is that it seems that he has a lack of great cards issued in his early days. Side note: Ted and Joe D are high up on most people’s list of best players of all time but they may both suffer from being considered a bit surly. Neither seemed to have the charisma of a ruth or mantle. Could be way off here.

I ask myself these questions what player does a Brilliant say late 20’s Wall Street Hedge Fund Manager Type who loves making money but has never watched or played a sport yet wants to diversify, who will he know.

I always come back to Ruth and Jackie.

Well, you know me Phil; I'd take a different approach to spending $50K in six months than just about everyone else who has posted so far.

First I would finish my E98 set with the Cobb, Wagner and Young (and it would still pain me to spend Cy Young money on an Irv Young card!). Then I would buy all the big cards I need for my post war sets (Mantles that I'm missing, Ryan RC, Seaver RC, etc.). Then as many decent prewar cards as I could get that I think are cool (T206 Johnson portrait and Mathewson portrait; E-Unc Blue Caption Wagner; E90-1 Speaker; any of the Jersey City cards I still need and maybe upgrade a few of the ones I already have; Horizontal cards (1909 Obaks and E cards); etc.)

I'd amass a bunch of stuff that brings me joy instead of dropping it all on 3-5 cards that will go up in value in the future. I enjoy the cards more than the values. Many of the cards I mentioned are fairly expensive cards, but I could get a lot of them for $50K.

Anyway, that's my take on this experiment. Cool idea for a thread by the way. I'm enjoying reading everyone's responses.




.

Cracker Jack Cobb and Jackson. These 2 cards are at the top of my fantasy want list and I will likely never own either. And they’ll probably do well long term as well.

Jokic and Messi. Put your focus on sports where the collector base is growing.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Not sure I agree with Jokic. Big men do not age well in the hobby. See Shaq and Duncan.

I suspect guys like that are buying more basketball than baseball.

RE: "(and it would still pain me to spend Cy Young money on an Irv Young card!)"

Thank you Andy! Whether it is E98 or some others; my skin crawls when, all I see is Irv; regardless of what got printed on the nameplate below. That is a tough one to swallow; at least if it was a raw, circulated or A, 1 slabbed. But still.
Ben
"I love baseball history backstory; especially when it involves cards."

While pondering the thought experiment, I put together a "top ten" list. There were three players on that list whom I did not include in my post above. Those three were Ted Williams, Christy Mathewson, and Honus Wagner.

In Williams' case, I left him off due to his lack of a World Series ring. He was a great player and an otherworldly hitter; however, Williams never got to the top of the mountain.

I have similar feelings regarding every perennial All-Star with barren fingers. There are posters who will likely attack this point of view and cite numerous reasons why "championships don't matter" in baseball. Ultimately, though, winning the World Series does matter...as it pertains to being an upper-echelon, top-tier player.

How many World Series did Ty Cobb win?

I believe the answer is zero. Cobb's occasionally deplorable behavior is also one of the reasons I left him off my list. I realize many collectors couldn't care less about either of those things. Villains have a certain appeal to some people. From a purely monetary point of view, it probably makes sense to pick up his cards. Still, my original list of seven will likely perform quite well...and I'd be thrilled with any of those.

Prewar: I would probably go with the nicest condition I could find of the generals...Johnson, Cobb, Ruth, Matty

Vintage 1951 B Mantle Rookie and a Leaf Jackie

Modern: it's hard not of love Juan Soto. He was the 6th youngest player on a major league roster this year. He also has 99 HRs, 486 hits, 375 walks and 338 runs scored already.

Long shot...pick up a few very high grade 1978 Glenn Burke cards.

Irv Young. The most painful part of putting together an E98 Master Set is having to do it 4 times...

lollllllll!
Lord help you!
Ben

If I am free to purchase vintage cards, I would take a very sharp looking SGC or PSA 5 1933 Goudey Ruth card, and I would be open to any of the four issues from that set.

I would purchase playing days Ruth cards. Especially any 1922 American Caramel Ruth's. I would also like to get a 1917 Boston Store Hornsby. I feel all 1917 Hornsby cards are undervalued (Boston Store , Collins McCarthy etc)

I'd make a list of the 25 greatest players, cross out anyone who's named more than once in this thread, and buy up whoever is left over.

I just picked up an e121 ruth montage. This makes me feel better about it!!!!!

I rarely buy cards anymore but if someone were to hand me a free and clear $50k to spend on the hobby right now it would go towards:

1. A new Graig Kreindler painting(s) (even if I had to wait years to get it). Or...
2. The nicest pre-1970 World Series player or coach ring I could find. Or...
3. As many quality Type 1 photo's or cabinets as I could find, with an emphasis on Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, N173's, W600's, Carl Horner photos, Charles Conlon photos, Louis Van Oeyen photos.

You may find better hot/trendy investments but I'll own things I love. :)

1922 Caramel Ruth's and Nielsen Chocolate.

I like the 1922 Caramel's better than the 1921 and the price gap is ridiculous from 1921 to 1922. The reason I like the 1922's better is because the 1921 is using an old recycled photo of the Babe. 1922 Caramel's and its Nielsen cousin show the Babe as he looked at that time and is one of the earliest to show an actual photo of Ruth as a Yankee on a card(not a drawing).


1947 Bond Jackie Robinson
1948 Swell Jackie Robinson

The 1949 Leaf is already in the stratosphere and is a great card, but these two cards issued before(and fare more scarce) than the Leaf are still underpriced relative to the overall hobby and to all of Jackie's cards. They will never catch the Leaf, but they are still ridiculous bargains in todays overall hobby prices.

I'm a collector, not an investor, but I'll play. Assuming I had $50k that must be used to purchase cards

In lower grade

33 Goudey Ruth #144
E121 Ruth Pitching, Burd, Montage
E220 Ruth

I have not figured out your Theme

But I Like it :D