What is happening with baseball card prices?
 

Header says it. I collect 52 and 56 Topps. And observing the prices, some players are going gangbusters. For example, Robinson and Mays in the 52 set. I bought a PSA 6 Mays, dead centered in 2014 for $2600, and just in the last week, a PSA 5, badly centered, sold for a whopping $12,600.

Part of me thinks maybe I should cash out. But I'm not in this for money, and I love my collection. But I'm trying to be real about it. Is this a bubble? Or are we seeing a correction on cards like the Mays and Robinson that have been historically undervalued when compared to the Mantle?

Do I hang on to the card, or take the money and reinvest?

I’ve thought a lot about selling my best cards for what should be an insane profit based on what I bought them for over the years but when it comes down to it I just can’t sell.

If you’re like me, the cards you sell you’ll just end up needing to buy again.

It is tempting though - thinking that I could maybe sell a selection of early 50s topps and buy a card or two I never thought I’d be able to own with the proceeds, but what good does that really do when I’d just have to turn around and buy a new 52 Mays or 55 Clemente to fill in the hole.

I guess it just depends what you’re in it for. There are profits to be had, but I’d still rather have the cards.

I guess the one caveat is the fear of being priced out of something. If I don’t pull the trigger soon on a 33 Goudey Ruth I may never be able to afford one. So maybe it makes financial sense to sell a 55 Clemente and Koufax to get one. But even then I think I’d be more upset about parting with the 55s than I’d be happy about getting the Ruth. I don’t want to break up the band!

There's a lot more investor, new modern collector going into vintage. If you look at how much modern gain last year. This is nothing. They just throwing money they already made in a they think undervalued market.

It all depends on your personal financial situation. If you don't really need the money just hang on and enjoy your cards.

This crazy parabolic increase is being caused by FOMO and easy pay day dreamers. People asking 2-3X actual cards values (VG Mantles at 75k and EX Mays at 25 plus) just seem like desperate attempts to capitalize. Holding off on my big purchases for the time being.

Maybe this isn't the best analogy but I sold my highly graded 8/9s Fleer 86-88 Jordans (Michael James) and immediately bought for same price 6 and 7's and a raw sticker, which are on fire too.

In another deal got a 3 after I sold another 5--and 3 raw stickers. So I'm downgrading but it's not like I'm ever going to be #1 on the registry...and I'm a mid-grade collector at heart. I'm happy when I complete a set.

Cash Out Now On Any Grades Lower then 7

It is tempting

I’m 100% serious, take this profit now 👍

I think a lot, but not all of it - is pandemic boredom and some FOMO creeping in when people look at what Ruth, Cobb, and other popular prewar cards have done in the past two years or so. The postwar HOF key cards and marquee rookies are in the same boat.

I would not expect the bubble to last forever, but some cards will probably not dramatically lose steam even if it doesn't. I don't think multiple rounds of government checks and sports gamblers having to stay home for so long have helped us at all in the past year, however.

Yes.

The cards you cited were undervalued. They are now part of a bubble. When it pops it will drop some but I don't think back to where it was.

A 1952 Mays PSA 3 vg, for example, was a $800-$1200 card for years until it started up. It is now over $3K and likely to go up more before it pops. Will it drop back to $800? Doubtful. That hasn't been the pattern for greatly appreciated cards over the decades. They go up and come down some. Assuming, of course, that the world doesn't turn to shit on us all at once.

There are a number of factors in play
 

1) Finite supply of vintage cards
2) HUGE increase in demand for 2 primary reasons including Sports cards and memorabilia being recognized as a legitimate "investment" and the "covid effect" - many people rediscovering collecting and getting back in the market.
3) Lots of money sloshing around the economy courtesy of the stimulus.

Only if we see a significant drop in demand (which I am not so sure is coming) would there be downward pressure on prices.

The 1952 Topps Mantle is a great example - you can go and buy one any day of the week - the supply exists. The price has continued to go up in response to demand - think for a minute about the fact that a PSA 9 just sold for 5.2 MILLION dollars! If the Mantle is the yardstick - what are the rest of the significant 52's worth? Or many other vintage cards?

An anecdotal observation - It seems to me there are a lot fewer higher grade 7-10 cards coming to market. I think about this in a context of old muscle cars - I used to be able to go to a car show and see rows and rows of incredible cars including some of the most rare. It seems these days most of these cars have been gobbled up and sit in private collections for years.

Another thought I have is the prices relative to other collected categories - How much does a great or rare painting sell for? Previously mentioned cars? Coins? Art other than paintings? Jewelry? In that context Sports cards and memorabilia are in their financial infancy.

One way or another, things are going to stay interesting....... Collect what you enjoy and you'll rarely be sorry.

I only seen a tiny bit of the last Mecum auction but how did prices compare to previous auctions?
I believe it was Carol Shelby's Cobra that sold for 5.3-5 million. I also believe that was a new record?

I don't think we've caught the Superman #1 comic yet. If one the Mantle PSA 10s ever sells during this, maybe we'll see. Not sure if one of those has sold in forever either though (dunno much about them)

I'm quite bullish on the next 6 months. After that, who knows. I can see a leveling off post Covid but that '52 Mays card is only going up.

Vintage baseball has seen a steady growth these past 12-18 months. Certain players went up substantially (Ruth, Aaron, Mays and Robinson in particular) but a lot of other players didn't move that much, especially compared to basketball and to modern.

In the past ten days since Hank Aaron's passing, vintage has made a big jump and it seems to be involving a greater variety of old cards. There's likely another stimulus coming and the sports card market has been in the news quite a bit lately. You've got mainstream sports media like ESPN and The Ringer talking about it (the first episode of The Ringer sports card podcast was horrid btw). The momentum is huge and the next 6 months should see more growth.

Yes, some collectors will be taking a profit, but more people continue to enter the market. Things look good and the bubble is expanding like 5-piece wad of chewing gum being blown by Kurt freaken Bevacqua. Put me in the bulls corner.

That is part of tthe point I was trying to make
 

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

Supply of many cards is drying up; no one wants to leave money on the table. This is probably a very good time to start selling off the chaff.

2 random observations.

1) I agree that the Ringer’s card podcast wasn’t good. “Clemens PSA 10 RC’s are relatively affordable”.

2) I think the surge in vintage softens slightly when Spring Training starts and everyone is projecting Soto or Tatis to win MVP.

That’s all. And as per forum rules,
Adam Wanaselja.

When everyone is talking about how easy it is to flip ( insert.item here) in a weeks time, be fearful. Just my opinion

Oh I meant the Superman #1. Looks like 2014 was the last sale for it.

Still a ways to go before getting close to top artwork. But then those are one of a kind

It’s crazy, the cheapest 52 jackie on eBay right now is $25,000 for a bvg 4

It sold for 275k in 2001.

If you think this is a bubble, and are calling a top (or close to it), then liquidate everything. Earmark the money for cards. Then, when the market declines, you can buy back all your old cards, plus many more, with the same money. Your collection will come out ahead in the long-run. However, calling a top is hard. I think it was Warren Buffet that said he would love just to be able to get within 20% of predicting a top and bottom.

I’m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

I am in the same boat as you. I never had the intention of selling.
It has always been in the back of my mind, but I was really hoping that my sons would take an interest. I would have lost my mind to inherit a collection a fraction as cool as i feel mine is.

It's hard not to consider getting the most out of the key cards that are exploding though. I will probably let this opportunity pass me by, as i really don't want to sell them plus I hate the hassles that come with it.

I am in agreement with this in that card budgets will drop as people return to vacations, movies and concerts etc.

One other aspect though is people like me who have taken advantage of the spike and sold a few big cards that I wasn't too connected to. I now have a bigger card budget than in the recent past. So I think some of it will continue based on people like me liquidating only to infuse it right back in.

I bought that Jackie (that exact card) for $6k a couple of months ago, and traded it for what I had in it, as the centering bugged me. It was $15k two days ago, then they raised the price $10k when all other '52 Jackies sold.

I better list mine for $20K

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...20Robinson.jpg

I had that card in VG-ish shape 20 years ago and sold it for probably $500. Whoops.

There appear to be no reasonable limits as to what people are willing to pay for cards currently. One example of this is the 1968 Topps #280 Mantle PSA 9. In 2005, I way overpaid ($1500) for a copy of this card. Until 2016, the card's value hovered around $1000. The buying events of 2016 caused this card to become a $3k +/- card. Fast forward to this month, two copies have recently sold for $16k and $14k???? I would not consider this card a low pop card as there are 177 copies in this grade.


Any ideas what the next copy of this card will sell for?

Two economic forces will concurrently operate to push down prices at some point.

First, as previously mentioned, the demand for cards will drop when Covid eases up. People will eventually return to spending their hard-earned money on vacations, concerts, experiences, etc. Their laser-focused entertainment budgets, which are currently just on cards, will splinter into many different directions.

Secondly, when Covid eases up, some collectors, who will now have more entertainment options, will grow bored and exit the hobby. They will no longer have the money or desire to continue collecting cardboard. When the drop in demand starts sending prices down, these collectors will panic and rush to sell their cards to lock in decent profits/prices. This will in turn increase the supply for sale..

Decreased demand and increased supply is bad news for prices, but good news for us true collectors that buy and hold. Although I enjoy seeing my collection’s value increase, it is moot because I’m not selling. The increased value is simply on paper and will remain there. I’m tired of being priced out of the cards that I want. I simply refuse to pay 3x last January’s prices for cards on my wish list.

I can imagine if oen could somehow see the "order flow"

the selling side would outnumber the buying side by a high margin. There is a Goldin auction every month with millions of dollars of cards being..ahem "SOLD"

1952 topps joe black PSA 2 did 400 last night, right

I've lurked here for long enough and never felt the need to post until now.

I'm down to maybe a total of 50-60 cards to knock off 66T, 64 Philly FB, 67 T FB, and a handful of others and it's killing me to think I can't do it unless I spend $250 on a Horace Clarke rookie card - which I can afford but can't do on principle.

That causes me to think about selling my old sets or cashing in on my PSA 6 Rose rookie. But then I wouldn't have those cards anymore. This conundrum bothers me every day and I guess waiting it out is the only answer.

Glad I have my Horace...wow...just looked, Deans Cards has the cheapest example?? WTF? That says it all right there...wow.

Agreed, also when financial publications stop touting cards as investments.

I basically took the money I was going to spend on Hotels and transportation to the National last August and Comic Con in October and put thee money in a savings account. I'm just waiting for the speculators to exit and i'll take this money (plus the .001 percent interest) and resume finishing my vintage sets.

I realize prices will always be strong for Hi Grade material, but there is no reason why collector grade EXMT and lower should remain at ridiculous levels once everyone returns to their normal activities.

If anyone really thinks this is a bubble about to burst, where are the sellers? Inventory of good stuff is down to nothing. Some cards I've been looking for lately have no examples for sale, or no new ones.

This hobby is addictive, new collectors came in during covid period. some might left, but i bet many will continue. And these really rich people are buying it, for fun + SHOWOFF

Absolutely this. I'm only back in the hobby for several months, but it's pretty obvious to me that for a lot of people, it's not really about cards at all - it's just another (pardon my French) d***-measuring contest to see who has the rarest, the mintiest, the most expensive, etc.

I’ve noticed this too. Nothing showing up on eBay and also helps explain the numerous WTB threads here.

Fear of leaving money on the table is keeping cards off eBay. People don't want to sell goods cards and then see them sell for double the next day.

Guess they all must be going to goldin

Those guys are making way too much money, Ferrari is not as show off as 1/1 mahomes or 52 mantle psa 9. driving that you won't be interviewing by media , on the news. but buying a psa 9 52 mantle your face is all over the media. Every media is looking to interview you. when you have a couple thousand of these ppl , things are not coming back down. To them, these are tiny portion of their portfolio, it's cheaper compare to own than a ferrari for 15 years(including maintenance) probably holds or increase value

And they wont care when it is worth far less, if they need to liquidate or just move on to something else

He couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat! :)


I love my collection and spent so much time collecting and upgrading. It felt like 90% of the time along the way I was the sucker because I won an auction that was above VCP. But if I waited for VCP, I would have never got the card. Then someone gave me life changing advice. He said "you never pay too much, you just pay too soon" Obviously this meant that the price would eventually get there so stop fretting and just realize that it is a long game.

I have told the story before, but when I first got on the board, someone asked what they should pay for a 33 Goudey Ruth. There were about four immediate responses on top of each other and every response was a variation of "a grand a grade". So, around 2014, I began searching for a 4-5 for $4,000 or $5,000. I was not seeing it. In fact I was having trouble finding one for half that (and maybe I was looking in the wrong spot). I didn't want to be the idiot that overpaid, so I kept waiting. I will probably never be able to own that Ruth now - and definitely won't be able to won all four of them liked I hoped.

It is fun watching sold card prices these days. I bought my PSA 6 Aaron for about 10% of what it is going for now back in 2015. But, if I sold it, it would mean that I no longer have an Aaron and the money would either just go into my investment account or back into another card and I prefer Aaron. What I am finding now though is that the collection is starting to feel more like an asset class than a hobby. I fear fire and theft and the cost to insure continues to go up because the relative value goes up.

My only hope is that maybe, just maybe, those 86-90 sets that have been in binders and sheets that were worth more than the cards - will suddenly start having decent relative value to the late 70's/early 80's cards. I am hoping that folks will either throw them away or donate them to Tim Carroll so that he can make a picture. If that happens, and I am the last to hold onto them, they might end up with some value as well. I mean, there was a time when T206's were massively overproduced and it worked out okay!

He couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat! :)


I love my collection and spent so much time collecting and upgrading. It felt like 90% of the time along the way I was the sucker because I won an auction that was above VCP. But if I waited for VCP, I would have never got the card. Then someone gave me life changing advice. He said "you never pay too much, you just pay too soon" Obviously this meant that the price would eventually get there so stop fretting and just realize that it is a long game.

I have told the story before, but when I first got on the board, someone asked what they should pay for a 33 Goudey Ruth. There were about four immediate responses on top of each other and every response was a variation of "a grand a grade". So, around 2014, I began searching for a 4-5 for $4,000 or $5,000. I was not seeing it. In fact I was having trouble finding one for half that (and maybe I was looking in the wrong spot). I didn't want to be the idiot that overpaid, so I kept waiting. I will probably never be able to own that Ruth now - and definitely won't be able to won all four of them liked I hoped.

It is fun watching sold card prices these days. I bought my PSA 6 Aaron for about 10% of what it is going for now back in 2015. But, if I sold it, it would mean that I no longer have an Aaron and the money would either just go into my investment account or back into another card and I prefer Aaron. What I am finding now though is that the collection is starting to feel more like an asset class than a hobby. I fear fire and theft and the cost to insure continues to go up because the relative value goes up.

My only hope is that maybe, just maybe, those 86-90 sets that have been in binders and sheets that were worth more than the cards - will suddenly start having decent relative value to the late 70's/early 80's cards. I am hoping that folks will either throw them away or donate them to Tim Carroll so that he can make a picture. If that happens, and I am the last to hold onto them, they might end up with some value as well. I mean, there was a time when T206's were massively overproduced and it worked out okay!

Hell, even what I do - trolling around for reasonably priced mid-grade raw HOF cards - seems to be getting harder in the past several days.

Last year I sold some basketball cards that were going absolutely ape-shit crazy. I sold them on the way up, far above what I paid but well below where they peaked. I replaced them with lower grade examples for a tiny fraction of the price. Haven't regretted it a bit. Sometimes you just have to decide that this % of gain is enough and take the profit. I do not profess to know where that number is, but it seems to me that when inventory goes nearly to zero it is a good time to consider cashing out. For a lot of the cards that have soared in price and that have zero inventory, it might be worthwhile to list what you have at 2x the last sale price and see what happens. I am very tempted to do so.

And it was an awful 2.

But to be fair, his other high numbers did not get strong prices

In my case, almost all of my purchases come from eBay because the cards I need are there. I post wanting to purchase upgrades for my 53 Bowman color set on Net54 for two reasons: many sellers on eBay over-grade their cards and the amount that I've been paying in taxes on my purchases has added significantly to the cost of the cards I have purchased. I also look to collect through a like-minded community rather than the open market as it's enjoyable to read the multiple perspectives regarding our hobby.

hey dont you have one John! lol

I just cant believe the Jackie prices, If my highs were complete (sans mick and mathews) I'd list the whole dam lot and see if these "buyers" are really paying this kind of money for cards

I think they'll end up going higher as well. At least in the short term. A new stimulus check is on the horizon.

Just the beginning. For those long time aaron holder. Our card value simply was stall for 6-7 yrs. We're just beginning stage to move up

So what should I ask for mine?

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ps%20Black.jpg

Recent quote from Ken Goldin on Sportscollectorsdaily:

“There are significant high net worth individuals who have decided to put millions of dollars into sports cards,” said Ken Goldin, Founder of Goldin Auctions. "New people are coming in each day.”

There's your demand, and we all know what that does to a fixed supply. I believe this has much more impact than the 50 year old guy returning to the hobby after 20 years off to pick up a few of the cards he missed.

I almost exclusively collect raw cards, but I'm seriously wondering if I should get these fellas of mine graded...

https://scontent.fmkc1-1.fna.fbcdn.n...58&oe=603F97B5

https://scontent.fmkc1-1.fna.fbcdn.n...96&oe=6042275A

https://scontent.fmkc1-1.fna.fbcdn.n...ff&oe=6042748C

Those are certainly worthy, and like many say and agree with, if you want to maximize your profits, then grading is the only answer.

Beautiful cards, Brian. Would love to own that Joe Black!

Yes, provided you are OK with not seeing them again until Thanksgiving. I've not bothered to have anything graded in more than a year. No need unless I plan to sell it.

Just joining the conversation but Adam I agree with this 100%. I have a few cards I have picked up recently that I am dying to know what they would grade at (kind of to evaluate my sense of spotting values in raw). They are personal collection only and have no intention to sell them. We’re talking pretty small potatoes like a few hundred bucks each if they get the grade range I think. As excited as I am to pull the trigger I know waiting another year or so will make the grading process - wait time and possibly even cost likely a lot better than in this “flip minded” current bottleneck!

Our cards being worth something is always kind of a nice fallback, a hobby which you can get something out of if you really need to - and not something like owning a boat where you just essentially pour money through a hole in the water as your "asset" only depreciates more and more over time.

What I hate about these boom and bust markets though, is how it makes us feel about our cards on a daily basis. Sure, I'm glad they are worth "something", but all this FOMO (whether we admit it or not...) creeping in causes us to question our decisions, and forces a financial view upon things when in some cases it wasn't necessarily there before. I don't blame people for taking an interest in what certain cards are worth, especially if whatever is stashed away in their closet or safety deposit box may suddenly be now exponentially more valuable. It's just human nature. Especially if it would help someone retire sooner, or something like that. But it forces that devilish catch-22 of having to consider some of the financial aspects, when for many hobbyists for a long time - it wasn't necessarily about that.

So, for me at least - all this valuation bubble stuff is very much a mixed bag of tricks.

Well said, exactly how I feel. Boom/Bust, I don't care, it's not why I love this hobby. If I ever need to sell, (I have before to fund other hobbys) it's just nice to know I can get what I put into it...and if that busts out I will simply by more at reduced prices. Win/Win

Thanks. I will admit though it's funny to realize that a card you thought was worth about $200 is now selling for $550 though. I found that out on something last week. No plans to sell though, so I'm trying to treat it like a big moot point.

I can't see the stimulus checks being the cause of the current prices in the hobby.

Someone making $75k and getting a $1400 stimulus check is more than likely not paying $25k for a PSA 4 '52 Topps Jackie, and I'd be shocked if they are looking to spend $400 on a PSA '52 Topps Joe Black.

The wealthiest have seen their wealth grow substantially in the past year. This is purely the result of people looking to park their money into other asset classes.

I suspect we will see a small burst in the bubble as COVID restrictions ease up, but we don't know when that will be. When it does happen, the drop in prices certainly won't be $GME-esque, that's for sure.

I’ve had this happen a few times recently. I bought a 10 lot of PSA 9 UD Griffey rookies for $500 a few years ago. Just seen that those are approaching 10x in price. One of those wtf moments. Still can’t justify selling them, as I like to hold onto stuff that I got cheap that much more. This same realization can be found on many other purchases as well.

I have a theory and I believe it is sound but nobody likes it on the main board. There are a few unscrupulous sellers who are known to shill bid their auctions or at least not do anything about their consignors shill bidding their auctions and over the last few years there have been thread after thread about them.

The threads all have a common theme: how is X getting this price for this card?

They're not. Nobody ever pays for the card. That's why the card gets listed over and over and over again by the same seller. It never actually sold.

BUT if you have the same card in the same condition and you SEE a sale price for a card that didn't actually sell, you're more than likely to use that sale as a benchmark for pricing your own card, believing that price to be market value.

As a result, you have cheap cards being measured against a price point they should have never reached. Thereby raising the price of that card.

I believe this to be true. Every record sale and outlier is creating these new “base” prices. People seem to have short term memory of those same cards not selling at a fraction of current prices.

Totally Agree and it's been happening for years....It's my guess it's legal/or extremely difficult to prove, Who is the Victim? Is it the Marketplace and Future Perspective Buyers? I don't know seems like a conspiracy to me but I guess without a true victim its hard to charge..idk i'm holding out hope .....but have little to no faith left. We know altering a card isn't a crime. We know TPG's won't back up their grade, we know most major auction houses will not accept returns, we know to expect to see the same card by same auction house to be relisted time and time again always selling or we are led to believe selling at a higher number. Very Odd Or How about a now expected to see norm...it's depressing.

I see no signs of this stopping.....it's Had No Effect on the Prices Rising.

Will it only continue to go up???? Who Knows.... I've been wrong before.

One thing in this hobby will never change, Buyer Beware. That's all you can do, protect yourself, no one else will.

I believe this is exactly why prices have risen. It's all artificial and not representative of any kind of market. On the main board there are a lot of guys who like to play economics chair and make all these points about the FED and interest rates and all this other crap.

Listen, I've been buying cards since I was 8 years old. Federal interest rates have factored into my purchasing power and decision making exactly 0 times.

When more and more celebrities start showing off their high value cards and making it a cool trend. Then it will go even crazier. Not sure if this is going to happen but the trend seems like it will

The vast majority of sales are genuine. Look at all the cards flowing through the auction houses: does anyone really believe that they are not selling the cards? I've done legal work for a few of them going after non-paying bidders. They take it very seriously and on high dollar cards will sue for their vig. I also know quite a few of the buyers and they are actual collectors who are tickled pink over getting their dream cards.

All that said, there is a great deal of speculation going on right now, lots of wannabe flippers. They are going to get their wings clipped badly when the corrections start, unless they have the discipline to set a specific target and sell when it gets there as the prices go up. I personally do not find this M.O. to be compelling, mainly because the transactional costs are so large (10% on up) for anything except a private sale and selling can be a PITA.

All these macro discussions about why remind me of an interview I heard once with Mark Cuban. He was asked about some sort of tax policy and scoffed at its effect on investment: he said that no one ever invests in a company or product based on taxes, they do it to make money and if there is a tax break it is ancillary to the main considerations. It's all BS too: no one 'knows' why things are as they are, just like none of the news organizations 'know' why the market went up or down on any given day. Individual decisionmaking does not aggregate into a collective consciousness, only into a collective outcome. Anyone making macroeconomic prognostications about why Willie Mays cards are going up or down is pulling it out of his ass, and more likely than not is coming to his opinions based on his personal biases and experiences. Of course the 1952 Topps Mantle is worth a fortune...if I own one of the MOFOs. Otherwise, it is overvalued and part of a bubble.

I would disagree that shilling, shenanigans, or skullduggery on the whole is responsible for the upswing of the market that started in 2020. Sure, it exists in pockets - but to take the entire market up? It would have to be so prevalent that you would be hearing a lot more legit stories of people caught doing such things.

Look at PSA's Auction Prices Realized page for some of the more popular vintage cards. It's a good mix, and (at least historically) while it's not inclusive of every single sale, it's a good cross section of what is sold in different places and includes a lot of eBay listings. A lot of people look at sites like that and VCP, and it would probably be pretty easy to string together evidence on multiple sellers who are simply reporting bad data and relisting cards, were that truly happening en masse. It isn't.

What I do to rationalize the prices is to cut and paste the PSA sales data and then delete all of the PWCC sales from the run. I think that gives you a better idea of what is really happening across the board.

If we don't have people taking a week off work and traveling to CHI for the National this summer I think it will drive prices still higher. It costs me about $1500-$2000 to attend a National, give or take, and I curtail my purchases during the lead-up to the show to build my bankroll for the show. If the show is called off, I have no travel expenses, my show bankroll is unnecessary, and the frustration of not going will generate some 'consolation' purchases too.

I've been saying something akin to this for a while. And it's something that until you crunch the numbers you don't realize. Now while I can't speak for the overwhelming majority of America, I can speak for myself. Since the Pandemic started I have not:

Purchased Any New Clothes: No point If I'm not really going anywhere
Booked any Vacations
attended any Games/Concerts
Gone to a Casino

I'd say in total, from all of that I have probably saved, conservatively, $5000. Where did that money go? Cards. In the past calendar year I added 4 more Mantle's to my collection that I wouldn't normally have been able to add. Some went into the bank as well. My point being, People that were/are making a hell of a lot more than me are and continue to be in the same predicament. Our Hobby does not rely on traveling, It doesn't require us to going to an exotic destination, or to an arena/venue. We can all sit in the comfort of our homes, in our Pajamas, look at the cards we want, at anytime, and spend money on them because quite simply we have nothing else to do.

Normalcy will return, people will leave the Hobby, some will stay for sure, and prices will lower. Will we see Pre-Pandemic Prices? Probably Not. But we won't have to worry about a card that we lost at auction last week being listed for 4x its price this week.

This started with basketball cards. Someone making 150k who was already spending money on the hobby suddenly gets 2400, more if he has kids, and can't spend money on vacations, movies, dining, etc. He puts that money into the right players, such as Jordan and LeBron, and now ~8 months later he easily has enough to buy even a low grade 1952 T Mantle before the recent run up after seeing ~10x gains.

There are lots of people whose income hasn't been effected at all and some who have seen a rise (medical related fields for instance). With another 2800+ coming, what are they going to spend it on? I don't see any bursting in the near future.

And many new collectors came back into this hobby. And you know what, collecting card is addictive

I just joined an '86 Fleer hoops FB group, and this effect is front and center.

The cards skyrocket forever, and then a week without increases (or one particular example dropping back a little) and chicken littles come out of the woodwork everywhere. Often data mining to find an outlier that makes their point even more valid. In this case, taking a PSA 8 Jordan sale from PWCC with one of those letter superiority designations (not to mention it was one the best 8s I'd ever seen, and perfectly centered). And using that as the price point of the "high".

And sure, they could be right about this being the peak. But that doesn't change how strong the personal biases are when evaluating the marketplace

Who said it's happening en masse? And why would it have to? There are two sellers that this board has created thread after thread about for YEARS. So, yes, I agree, it takes time to do this. But that time has been passing all along. These sellers are responsible for thousands of listings every month. Those PSA sales, those VCP sales, how closely are you scrutinizing the seller of the item? I bet you'll find a couple names pretty frequently.

So you believe that the market is being manipulated, and prices are moving on the whole only because of a few sellers? OK.

Then do as Adam suggested, and take PWCC, Probstein, and I don’t know Dean‘s maybe out of those sales results and re-baseline everything. If your new averages for particular cards come out way lower, then yes a few sellers could theoretically be doing this, but as to the sales themselves, then to me that would insinuate “en masse” as to their volumes.

I don’t buy it.


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That's not how that would work. You would have to go back to pre-sale times when the prices of cards weren't being manipulated by auctions from sellers who bid their own cards up or allow consignors to bid on their own cards.

Like I said, if I consign a card, let's say a T206 Green Cobb, and I bid that card up to $8,000, but it doesn't actually sell to anybody, the next guy with the same card is going to judge it's value to be $8,000 because they think my cards sold for that.

It's a process that takes a long time. But that time has already passed.

I don't agree price move just because of few seller, more like covid period brings in a LOT of collector, especially the rich, look at the dude bought the 5.2 mil mantle, he's showing off everywhere, on tv, youtube etc... and all his 100 million buck buddies will want to do the same , it just have attracted the rich people into this hobby

There's just a huge demand for sportscard, especially the good ones
just look at the WTB in our BST section, never seen this before.
It is just Hot market, like tesla stocks, like bitcoin. and this hobby is addictive, and American now loves to showoff @ instagram, fb.