Who will be selected to the MLB HOF next Tuesday
 

Derek Jeter should be a lock to be chosen. Who else will be picked? Bobby Aubreu, Cliff Lee and Jason Giambi are some other big names that are in their 1st year of eligibility.

Out of those three only Lee stands a chance at election this year, and I don't think it's a good one.

Isnt Bonds currently tracked over 75, with clemens, Walker and Schilling at 70?

I realize its not their first year, but makes for interesting discussions

Through 150 ballots (a shade over 38%) Jeter has 100% of the votes, followed by Larry Walker and Schilling at roughly 85% and 80% respectively. Actual totals always drop quite a bit from the tracker, usually around 10%. If history is any teacher it might be Jeter alone though I think Walker will get in because people will vote for him since, A) it's his last year on the ballot and more importantly, B) the logjam of sure HOFers ahead of him has cleared up significantly over the last few years. Schilling will probably fall slightly short and looks good for next year. WAR darling Scott Rolen is making quite a lot of noise at over 50% of the votes and also looks good for induction sometime in the future. Of Abreu, Lee and Giambi, only Abreu currently has enough support (7.6%) to even remain on the ballot. I say Jeets and Walker by a hair. The PED guys are both tracking below 75% at the moment and will likely fall short.

I think you more or less nail it. Jeter at or near 100%, Walker eeks in (I think/hope).

Schilling has a shot in 2021...Bonds and Clemens? Tough to say.

No way Curt gets in.

Ever? There is no way that the BBWAA is going 3 years in a row without electing anyone. He is the best clean player on the ballot until Beltre in 2024.

Wow, that's amazing to think about...after the recent 5+ year logjam on the ballot. I mean, for a good number of years, there were 15 guys on the ballot who had strong cases to be in the hall, and voters could vote for a max of 10.

But yes, we have Jeter this year, Ortiz next....it's really thinning out.

I credit the rule that votes become pubic and the cleanup of the voting base with finally clearing up the logjam.

MLB just lifted the lifetime ban on deceased players. This could greatly affect the HOF. Haven’t read terms but can’t imagine it in effect this year since voting is almost final but imagine a 2020 induction ceremony with Derek Jeter and Shoeless Joe Jackson??!! For a sport in need of positive headlines that could be huge.

That was a very interesting press release by MLB today. Without saying they changed their minds, they just said that players are removed from the MLB ineligible list when the die and that MLB is "agnostic about a player's eligibility for the Hall of Fame, whether they're dead or alive."

It's been the HOF's rule (at least officially since 1991), not MLB's, that does not allow players on the ineligible list to be listed on the ballot for the HOF. The HOF could have chosen to include Jackson, Rose and others on their ballot if they so wished, but now if they keep in alignment with MLB, then at least Jackson could have a possibility to be elected by the Early Baseball committee which will meet this December. Joe Jax in the Baseball HOF - say it could be so.

Personally, I would not vote for either if they appeared on a ballot (and I was a big Pete fan growing up).

I want Pete in the second he dies. Just so he can be looking up at the ceremony cursing the fact that he couldn't be there.

Not sure that putting a player accused of taking bribes to throw games would be viewed as positive.

Agree on Rose after he dies. He could be in based on his playing days with a note on his plague about his ban. I just don’t want to see that <insert your favorite 4 letter word here> at the podium in Cooperstown on a nice July day.

Maybe they need a “year of the cheaters” to get it all done at once - Jackson, Rose, other Black Sox, Bonds, Clemens, etc.

Some fans will see this as a long awaited correction, others a travesty (but one that is at least over with all at once).

These guys being IN the HOF would actually get them less attention after induction than being on the outside looking in.

I mean, look at Bert Blylevin.

I agree. If Rose were elected while alive, his speech would trash Bart Giamatti and Faye Vincent, he just can't help himself, Manfred or whoever would never allow that.

You’re right. I was originally thinking about Jackson with a collectors popularity bias. It would definitely raise debate both positive and negative and given whats currently going on it would probably be quite negative.

Most recent numbers I saw earlier today look very good for Walker.

The deal with Walker is that he usually gets more support from the writers who release their ballots than those who keep them private. Based on the degree to which his support has dropped (between public and private ballots) in the past, Walker should be right on the line. Nate Rakich, over at 538, has developed an algorithm to model this and he predicts that Walker gets 73% of the vote. Which is obviously close enough to fall within any reasonable margin of error. One way or the other, it's going to be close.

But also, if he doesn't get in, it would be unprecedented for a player who gets this much support from the BBWAA to not get elected by the VC (or the Era Committees, as they're calling it now). So Walker might get in this year, but will almost certainly get in eventually.

That should say "the cheaters who got caught".

Whitey Ford has readily admitted to being Harris from Major League in his later years (doctoring the ball). Mike Schmidt was the incredible hulk from PEDs. And it's hard to imagine what else used to go on. Most of it was just accepted back then, as long as you didn't throw games to spite a backstabbing owner or get caught betting on games that you managed

If the Hall didn't have any cheaters, there'd be a lot of space open there

Where did you see that Schmidt used PEDs to bulk up? I've never seen that and I doubt it happened. What he did say was that he took Greenies (amphetamines) later in his career. The only problem with that was that it was common practice in baseball in the 50's - 80's, in fact, the trainer's used to doll them out like candy. Check out Ball Four on that one.

Without cheaters in there it would be more like the closet of fame. Soon you will have all the Ford and Schmidt fans saying they are innocent. At least you didn't call out Nolan Ryan and Tony Gwynn.;)

I haven’t heard the Schmidt accusation before, either.

I have heard “there is already a PED user in the HOF”
(and have heard so for years).

If I were making baseless guesses, Schmidt wouldn’t be on my short list.

If Derek Jeter gets in on 100% of the ballots, the voters have lost their damned minds, and the Hall has lost all credibility. He's a Hall of Famer. But 100% of the vote? Jeter? LOL.

We crossed that bridge a long time ago.

Whoever doesn't vote for him should have their voting privileges revoked for being a complete moron. I don't get why so many in the past didn't get 100% of the vote. I get there are players that are borderline but with players like Jeter there is no question on if he is a HOFer or not.

I heard that also, but always thought (but it has never been confirmed) that it might be Reggie Jackson. I base that only on his last year with Oakland and playing with the Roid Boys, as well as it looked to me like he was a bit bigger. Like I said, pure speculation.

Gil Hodges received over 50% 11 times. Over 60% 3 times with a high of 63.4%. Walker has only received over 50% one time, last year and most likely again this year. These are different times, but Hodges is still waiting for his call. With Joe Torre and Phil Rizzuto getting in, you would think that it is time for Hodges with his combination of playing career and managerial career to get elected.

Another very strong player who played a long time and took a physical beating on the base paths AND played with those A’s team is in the HOF. Again...just baseless guessing.

The right answer is probably some scrawny guy we’d never expect! :p

Making ballots public made a lot of the “dumb votes” no longer something we see (as often). The throwaway to the local favorite, the “HOF but not 1st ballot”, even worrying about the percentage once over 75%...the voting process has had a lot of “stupid” built in over the years.

The only legit reason I could see for not voting for Jeter is if you legitimately felt there were 10 other players who were deserving, so left Jeter off since he was so obviously going to get in.

I never really cared that no one had been voted in with 100% of the vote and still don't think anyone should. I think it would be safe to say that before Mariano Rivera that no Yankee player received a vote from a Red Sox reporter and no Red Sox player received a vote from a Yankee reporter, and I think that any teams with strong rivalries should be the same.

And I also think it would have been kind of funny if a shoe in hall of famer got dropped off the ballot because everyone figured that everyone else was going to vote him in and no one voted for him.

I didn't say he wasn't a Hall of Famer. I said he shouldn't be a first ballot, 100% vote getter. If I had a vote, I would wait until the second ballot. Would I be a moron? He's not the greatest to ever play his position. Not even close.

He was a real good player. He's nowhere near an immortal. He's not in the class of Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio or Mantle. Not even freaking close. He was a shortstop that hit for real good average. Had pretty good speed. Decent power. Awful defensively, and he struck out way, way too much for a guy with his middle-of-the-pack power, and didn't walk. 1,082 walks in 12,602 PAs is putrid, as is 1,840 strikeouts.

He led the league in runs scored twice, and hits twice. That's it. For a twenty year career, a first ballot Hall of Famer should be more dominating than that. And a unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer? LOL. Please.

He never won a batting title. Never won an MVP. Only three top 5 MVP finishes for a guy that was "the face of baseball", on the most visible team in pro sports, a team that was consistently in the World Series during his career. Yawn. When I read discussions about players in other sports, those things matter. When goalies are debated for the Hockey Hall of Fame, "did they win a Vezina Trophy? If not, they can still get in, but shouldn't be on the first ballot. Jeter was never the best player in the game, or in his league. And it can be argued he wasn't even the best at his position.

He had a 72.4 career WAR. That's 88th all-time. Mike Trout who is a great player, has more WAR in 9 years than Jeter had in 20. Larry Walker, who is on his final ballot, in three fewer years, had .3 more WAR. Walker won three batting titles. Led the league in home runs once. Led the league in on base twice. Slugging twice. OPS twice. Had a season with 400 total bases. And it wasn't Coors doing that. His 1997 MVP season, when he hit .366 with a league leading 49 home runs, slashing .452/.720/1.172 (all led the NL)--here are his splits:

Home: 20 HR, .460 OBP/.709 SLG/1.169 OPS
Away: 29 HR, .443 OBP/.733 SLG/1.176 OPS

He was better on the road than at Coors. But the narrative is that he was a product of the thin air.

Walker's career OPS +, which factors in ballpark, was 141. Jeter's was 115. Walker, unlike Jeter, was actually a pretty good fielder when he won those seven Gold Gloves. Jeter...was not.

Yet Larry Walker, a "product of Coors Field" who had a composite 137 OPS+ his last three years in Montreal, is on the ballot for the last time. He may not get in. Yet Captain Ame....I mean, Jeter, will be a unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer?

What a joke.

If I were making baseless guesses about "baseless guesses", it wouldn't be about a guy who (while having Pete Rose make funny quotes about how amazing Schmidt's body was) hit basically 700 HRs for the era he played in and scooped up everything near third base like a vacuum.... all while admitting how easily available greenies and other forms of PEDs were available in the past, and while saying that he would've taken steroids had he played in the '90s, among other statements where he basically infers that he didn't have the willpower to avoid those temptations at a younger age. Quotes from his book and HBO interview, btw

My post is about if Jeter is a HOFer or not. You say also say he is.

Larry Walker has not been voted in for very good reasons and should not get voted in this year. Unless they changed the name to Hall of Above Average.

Also, when it comes to Schmidt, even if none of the PEDs made him bigger or stronger, it seems pretty clear that he took part in activities that enhanced your results from them. And yes, they were "handed out like candy", but steroids were pretty available too to just about anyone who played in the roid boys era. It's not like only the best players used them then either.

The point is that readily available PEDs (and other cheating methods in the past) likely turned some really great players into superhuman ones, just like the situation with Bonds, Clemens, etc. And how that makes it senseless and unfair to shame/blackball only the roid boys

If they were told drinking whale sperm would make them play better, they'd drink it.

See, to me the guy who admitted to using other things and saying he'd consider using strikes me as a guy who probably would admit to using if he used, not saying he might if he did.

But I'm far from an expert on such things...the one thing the whole steroid thing has taught me is that you never know. I mean, for example, everyone thinks of the sluggers as users, but once testing was put in place, more pitchers got popped than hitters.

Just my opinion, but if a guy is a Hall of Famer then I don't concern myself with whether he got in on the first try or the 20th try or what vote percentage he got. There's no "first ballot wing" and their vote totals aren't on the plaques. Rivera to me isn't more of a HOFer because he was unanimous. It's more like, how could anyone not vote for him? The fact that writers found insane logic to not vote for others in the past doesn't mean that same logic should be applied to future elections. And it doesn't make Rivera a better player than the HOFers who were elected before him. In my mind, the vote totals are more of a reflection on the voting body than the players they're voting on. I'm admittedly a big Hall guy, I think a HOF with 20 guys in it would be pretty boring. So I try to recognize that there's varying degrees of greatness. Sure, compared to Aaron, Mantle, Mays... the big guns...most everyone falls short. But if compared to 6 or 7 thousand other players, you're the best in the room, well, I'm totally ok with those guys getting a plaque.

Can you name another just above average player who hit 360 three years in a row?

Or how about just another above average player who hit 360 or above three times in their entire career?

A lot of players did some great things a few times. That does not make them a HOFer. Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles does that make him a HOFer?

Larry had 2160 hits, 383 home runs, 1311, RBIs and a .313 batting average. If those are HOF #s there should be a LOT more people in the HOF than there is now.

Bill Marlock didn't hit 360 once in his entire career.

How far apart do you put Walker and Vlad in their careers? Walker's got a significant lead in WAR, a higher OPS and a higher OPS+. He's also got 7 gold gloves.

Vlad was elected in his second ballot.

I guess if those are the only stats you use to judge a HOFer, then sure. But there are certainly many more contributions a player can make.
I'm open to the idea that Walker isn't deserving, but you'll have to raise a point that isn't countered in this story first:
https://www.cooperstowncred.com/larr...eld-conundrum/

It does seem like Walker won't make it now (I think he will in a subsequent Veteran's Committee vote). Funny that Peter Gammons, who has voted for him in the past, dropped him from the ballot this year, certainly denting his cause as Walker's voting will really go down to just a handful of votes.

You obviously can't compare Coors field batting averages and OPS numbers to anyone else.

Walker, Helton, Arenado. All hit 60-70 points higher at home with an OPS a mile higher. Not to mention that the three in a row .360 Walker years were during the late '90s when the ball was popping off Mario Mendoza's bat.

IMO the only HOFer out of that group should be Arenado b/c of his glove too. Assuming his career stays on the same path

It is all just opinions. The HOF is just a tourist trap invented by someone to attract tourists. They even used a made up story for years to attract those tourists. Any argument about who should or should not be displayed in a tourist trap is silly.:D

Interesting thing to say when discussing Walker, who has 7 gold gloves. As far as I know Coors Field doesn't make it easier to win gold gloves.

Why didn't everyone else hit 360 while Walker was?

1997: Walker hit 366. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 318. Difference of 48 points.
1998: Walker hit 363. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 331. Difference of 32 points.
1999: Walker hit 379. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 320. Difference of 59 points.

You should see Royce Clayton's splits at Coors field.

DJ LeMathieu hit .390 at home in 2016 and .303 on road . in 2014 hit .316 at home and .216 on road (100 point difference)

Carlos Gonzalez hit .336 at home and .160 on road in 2014..


dont know about HOF but Braves will win the World Series 2020..

So what did the next closest players hit at Coors and away?

Not sure. I'm not doubting that Coors Field isn't prone to inflated numbers, but suggesting that just anyone could have done what Walker did by virtue of playing there isn't true. He was exceptional and much better than anyone else on the team.

Almost his entire prime was spent in Colorado, but look what he did with it. An MVP, three batting titles, 5 out of 7 of his gold gloves were won there. He isn't just some guy hacking away in Colorado. The team was full of people like that; Dante Bichette, Andres Gallaraga, Vinny Castillo. Larry Walker was heads and shoulders above them and that's why he's the only one with a HOF case.

Also, just to illustrate how much better Walker was than any other homer happy Rockies player, in the three years Walker hit 360 or better, he was the ONLY player on Colorado to put up an OPS over 1.000.

amazing he did have 230 steals

but power in 1998 he has almost 3x more homers at home versus on road and 1999 he had 26 homers at home and 11 homers away...

in 1997 he did have 9 or so more homers away , still you can see power greatly impacted at home ...batting average isnt everything...unless you are close to 3000 hits etc.

"Everyone else" didn't hit .360 because that's still awful tough to do, regardless of when or where. No one is denying that he was a great hitter. The point is that the numbers are still highly exaggerated because all the great Rockies hitters' home/road splits look like that.

And I know he was a really good outfielder too. His defensive WAR numbers don't show his skills (compared to Arenado), but I should probably give him more of the benefit of the doubt for that.

Walker is, at minimum, very close to HOF standards. but it seems unlikely that his numbers would've gotten him in had he not played for the Rockies. It's a close call.

right he is a great hitter but lets not kid ourselves, .360 is a shiny number...if its .320..its a great number but not shiny and HOF likes shiny numbers and the .360 is because of coors.

If Walker was great in the postseason (Andy Pettite) that would be something to consider but still hasnt worked for Petite.

however hitting .320 for 12 years is better than 4 shiny .360's or whatever, go and get 3000 hits (shiny number) and end the discussion..

And to be fair, there are other parks that should get almost as bad of a rep as Coors (when it comes to inflated hitting numbers). Especially Fenway. People know that places like it and Yankee Stadium are hitter friendly, but they don't take it into account as much as they should.

If you switched Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn's parks, one wouldn't sniff the hall of fame and the other would've had lifetime numbers like Ty Cobb

Jake hits are meaningless, Jeter has more than everyone that has ever played but 5 people. There are still people that would not vote for him.:rolleyes:

I know what your post said. I was demonstrating how absurd your thinking is. You say Derek Jeter is a slam dunk Hall of Famer, and anybody not voting for him is a moron, right? Yet Larry Walker is "above average", and not worthy of induction. More on how ridiculous that is below.

Well, then, I guess Joe DiMaggio shouldn't be in.

.325 AVG, 2,214 hits, 361 HR, 1,537 RBI.

Might as well boot Hank Greenberg out.

.313 AVG, 1,628 hits, 331 HR, 1,274 RBI.

Hasta la vista, Johnny Mize

.312 AVG, 2,011 hits, 359 HR, 1,337 RBI.

Your thinking is so beyond old, it's comical. Hits, home runs? Really? You do know it's the year 2020, and we have far better methodology to evaluate a player's greatness than counting stats, right?

What exactly did Derek Jeter do that was "great"????

It wasn't hit for power. 260 home runs in 12,602 PAs is pretty weak for the era he played in, even for a shortstop. Nomar Garciaparra was a shortstop, in the same era, and had far greater power.

Jeter 260 HR in 12,602 PA. A homer once every 48.7 PAs.
Garciaparra 229 HR in 6,116 PA. A homer once every 26.7 PA.

Do I need to bring Alex Rodriguez's power numbers into the conversation? No?

Jeter was an average power hitter as far as home runs go. At best, and that's being kind. 15 home runs per 162 games, when he averages 743 PAs per season, is actually pretty terrible. But surely he made up for it with other extra base hits, right? Doubles and triples must be where he added power to his game. After all, he had that speed.

Oh wait, nope. 544 doubles, 66 triples.

There are 26 players with over 3,000 hits since 1919. Jeter's 8th in plate appearances, but 17th in doubles, and 16th in triples. He's 20th of those 26 players in extra base hits, and the guys behind him all have at least 1,400 fewer plate appearances.

https://i.imgur.com/KrckOMe.png
Modern era 3,000 hit club members, sorted by singles.

The only modern hitter with over 3,000 hits that had more singles than Jeter's 2,595 is Peter Rose. Rose had 3,288 more plate appearances. So, Jeter had no power. Zero. The great "no brainer first ballot Hall of Famer" was a dink hitter.

What about his walk rate? Surely, if Jeter wasn't loading up on the extra base hits, he was walking, right?

Ah, no.

https://i.imgur.com/EHiUSq9.png
Modern era 3,000 hit club members sorted by walk rate.

Jeter is 20th of the 26 Modern era 3,000 hit club members in walk rate.

He didn't hit for power, not home runs, or extra base hits.
He didn't walk.

Where's the incontrovertible evidence of Jeter's "greatness". Anybody that dares consider not voting the great Jeter in immediately is a moron.

The numbers would seem to suggest that he's a bit over hyped.

He played 20 seasons. 18 of those would be considered full years; in all he appeared in at least 119 games. That's about 75%.

He led the American League in hits twice, and runs once. Well, considering where he batted in the lineup, and the offense he was a part of, I don't know if either of those are at all impressive. In 1999, he led the AL with 219 hits. He also led the AL with 739 PAs. Of those 739 PAs, 677 were from the #2 spot in the order. He hit great that year-a .349 AVG, and had 70 extra base hits, which for Jeter is like having 100. He also had 91 walks, which is by far his career high (by 14). Jeter's OPS+ was 153, with an OPS of .989. He'd never even approach that OPS again. Forget 2006, when he was MVP runner up. 1999 was his best season, with an 8.0 WAR. That was an MVP-type season. That, and his 1998 season, with a 7.5 WAR, are the only two MVP-type seasons Jeter ever had. He only had one other season with even a 6.0 WAR--6.6 in 2009.

In 2012, he led the AL with 216 hits. He had 740 PAs, walking a paltry 45 times. He hit .316 that year, which is pretty good. But of those 216 hits, only 47 were extra base hits. 32 doubles, 15 home runs.

He never led his league in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS. Only had one season of 40 or more doubles. Three seasons with even 20 home runs.

Jeter was a 115 career hitter by OPS. 15% above average. He was a poor fielder. A 115 OPS + doesn't get you into the Hall of Fame. And hitting was his calling card.

His career highs for OPS+

1999 153
2006 132
2000 128
1998 127
2003, 2005, 2009 125

His last seven seasons, 2008-2014, representing 912 games and 4,177 plate appearances, Derek Jeter was a league average hitter with a 101 OPS+.

He got 1,109 of his hits in those seven seasons. He was never good defensively, and was as middle of the road as you can get as a hitter.

Year, number of games played, OPS+

2008, 150, 102 OPS+
2009, 153, 125 OPS+
2010, 157, 90 OPS+
2011, 131, 100 OPS+
2012, 159, 114 OPS+
2013, 17, 52 OPS+
2014, 145, 76 OPS+

Derek Jeter, save for 2009, when he was 25% above league average, and 14% above league average in 2012, was a league average, or below league average hitter.

His last seven seasons, he was worth a combined 14.4 WAR across 912 games. That's 5.63 162 game seasons. He was worth, on average, 2.55 WAR per 162 games played. That's barely Major League starter-worthy.

Jeter hung on, and the Yankees let him, when he was way past his prime, so he could get his 3,000 hits. Jeter for roughly the last 1,000 games of his career was a stat padder.

The only reason he's in is because he got 3,000 hits, and he's "Derek Jeter". Don't give me this shit about how Derek Jeter is a no brainer Hall of Famer. He had two great seasons in 18.

A 5.0+ WAR is considered All Star level. Jeter, in 18 years, only had 6 that were truly All Star level (per BBR):

1999 8.0
1998 7.5
2009 6.6
2006 5.6
2001 5.2
1997 5.0

That's it.

2000 4.6 fringe All Star-level
2004 4.2

Ten full seasons Derek Jeter came in below a 4.0 WAR

This is a no-brainer Hall of Famer? He's beyond even question?

WAR isn't a perfect metric, but for a discussion of this kind, to compare Hall of Famer performance against other Hall of Famers, it's a great tool.

I looked at all Hall of Fame position players starting in 1945. Jeter isn't playing in 2020, so this is, essentially, a snapshot of all Hall of Fame position players from the past 75 years. For a few of these guys that started their careers prior to 1945 (Ted Williams, Enos Slaughter, etc), I used their entire career WAR and games played. Other Hall of Famers, like Joe DiMaggio, did play after 1945, but the majority of their careers came before the end of World War II.

This gives us 73 Hall of Famers. I created an average, games played per WAR. Expressed differently, how many games did it take that player to be worth one win above a replacement-level player?

https://i.imgur.com/AXrqhvR.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/s9xdLbJ.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/2pcD09l.png

I then did the same calculation for Jeter, and added him to the list.

This "no brainer, you'd have to be "a moron not to vote for him" was 52nd out of 74 Hall of Famers on this list.

Then, just for shits and giggles, I looked at where Larry Walker, you know, the guy that belongs in the "Hall of Above Average", would fit on this list.

1,988 games played
72.7 career WAR
Rate: 27.3452544

He would be 14th on this list of 74 players. Directly ahead of Rickey Henderson, Johnny Bench, Chipper Jones.

The only guys that were worth 1 win over replacement at a faster rate on this list: Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Eddie Mathews, Roberto Clemente, Frank Robinson, Joe Morgan, Wade Boggs and Jeff Bagwell.

But yeah. Derek Jeter is a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer, and Larry Walker's not even worthy of being in Cooperstown.

From 1994 to 2004, 11 seasons, Larry Walker had a 1.036 OPS, hitting .331 with a slash line of .422 OBP/.614 SLG/1.036.

For those 11 years, his OPS+ was 148.

Derek Jeter's best year ever by OPS + was 153. His second best was 132.

Larry Walker, for 11 years, was nearly the offensive force that Derek Jeter was for his best year.

Walker's career 141 OPS+ is better than Vladimir Guerrero's. Better than Alex Rodriguez's. Better than Duke Snider's. Better than Reggie Jackson's. Better than Chuck Klein's. Better than Ken Griffey Jr's. Better than Al Kaline's.

And that "Hall of Above average" comment? You're either being purposely disingenuous, you're hopelessly obtuse, or, you're just plain ignorant as to baseball history. Larry Walker is a little better than "above average".

In the history of Major League Baseball, there have been 12 men to finish their careers with a lifetime .310 AVG, 350 home runs and 1,000 RBI.

https://i.imgur.com/iAmmKq5.png

Larry Walker is one of those men.

Larry Walker was a better player than Derek Jeter, in every single facet of the game. Jeter rode his .310 lifetime average, and 11,195 career at bats, to 3,000 hits and Cooperstown, even when, for the last seven years of his career, he was league average as a hitter and dreadful as a defensive shortstop. Does a "great teammate" make his team carry him for seven seasons?

And Walker was a lifetime .313 hitter. The one thing that Jeter did truly well--hit the ball safely--Larry Walker did better!

Walker walked 913 times in 8,030 career PAs. An 11.37% rate
Jeter walked 1,082 times in 12,602 career PA. An 8.6% rate.

Jeter had 870 career extra base hits in 11,195 at bats.
Walker had 916 career extra base hits in 6,907 at bats.

Fielding?
Jeter 5 Gold Gloves
Walker 7 Gold Gloves

There is no argument to be made that Derek Jeter was a better player than Larry Walker. None. Jeter played a lot longer, so he got 3,000 hits when any other team would have dumped him after a God awful 2010 where he was worth 1.7 WAR. But Jeter had 2,926 hits, and everybody loved "Jetah".

Unfortunately for Walker, he didn't get to wear the pinstripes, and play on a loaded Yankees team. Unlike Jeter, Walker had the good sense to retire before he embarrassed himself.

Walker's last two seasons in the Majors:

2004 (age 37): 82 games, .298 AVG, 17 HR, 47 RBI .424 OBP/.589 SLG/1.013 OPS 154 OPS+
2005 (age 38): 100 games, .289 AVG, 15 HR, 52 RBI, .384 OBP/.502 SLG/.886 OPS 130 OPS+

In his second-to-last season, at age 38, Walker had a 154 OPS+. That's better than the best season Derek Jeter had in his 20 year career.

Jeter 1999-.989 OPS, 153 OPS+
Walker 2004-1.013 OPS, 154+

Your narrative is untenable. If Derek "no power, no walk, no glove" Jeter is a Hall of Famer, than Walker, who bests him in every conceivable metric statisticians have to assess a player's performance, deserves to be in as well, and anybody who doesn't see it is a moron.

Just for reference, here are Walker's home / away splits from his MVP season. Wouldn't this have been an MVP season for any player?


Home: 384 average, 20 homers, 68 rbis, 460 OBP, 1.169 OPS
Away: 346 average, 29 homers, 62 rbis, 443 OBP, 1.176 OPS

He also put up a 30/30 season that year. As far as I know Coors Field has never equated to an advantage in stolen bases.

Derek Jeter career OPS on the road: .801.
Larry Walker career OPS on the road: .865.

Doesn't matter where Walker was, home or away, he was a better offensive performer than Derek Jeter, by a wide margin. And he was better defensively.

I really do like the Fenway Park comparison. Just for fun, I took a look at Jim Rice's numbers. He played his entire career at Fenway and was supposedly one of the most feared hitters of his era:

Career Numbers:
Home: 320 average, 208 homers, 803 rbis, 374 OBP, 920 OPS
Away: 277 average, 174 homers, 648 rbis, 330 OBP, 789 OPS

But no one really ever says "he was a Boston player" about anyone.

Walker was playing at an All Star, near-MVP level before he ever got to Colorado. Funny how people fail to see that, as it doesn't fit with the whole "Coors made Walker" line of thought.

In 1992, Walker finished 5th in the MVP while an Expo (something Jeter did 3 times in 20 years), hitting .301 with 23 HR and 93 RBI, slashing .353 OBP/.506 SLG/.859 OPS. That was good for a 141 OPS+ in a down year for hitting. He won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger.

In 1994, his last year in Montreal, the strike shortened season where the Expos were 74-40, and robbed of a chance to play in the World Series, Walker was magnificent. .322 AVG, 44 doubles, 19 HR, 86 RBI, .394 OBP/.587 SLG/.981 SLG, 151 OPS+. Walker was worth 4.7 bWAR in '94. If Montreal had played in all 162 games, at that rate, Walker's WAR would have been 6.7. A 7.0 WAR is considered near-MVP caliber.

Walker's best WAR by season, with that adjustment:

1997 9.8 MVP
2001 7.8 24th in the MVP (LOL at that)
1994 6.7
2002 6.1
1998 5.7
1992 5.4
1999 5.1

Look at his Hall of Fame Statistics:

https://i.imgur.com/mfQSq8e.png

Black Ink, which awards points for leading the league in offensive categories, is a bit low. Ok. I would point out that Derek Jeter's Black Ink score is 10.

Gray Ink counts top ten appearances. His score would be a little lower as he didn't play nearly as long as many Hall of Famers.

Hall of Fame Monitor and Batting Standards he is way over the Hall of Fame threshold.

And JAWS? There are 26 Hall of Fame right fielders. Walker ranks tenth in JAWS. He's behind Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Reggie Jackson and Harry Heilmann.

That's some select company.

And look at his similarity scores.

https://i.imgur.com/rqO50r3.png

Duke Snider, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, Vladimir Guerrero and Chuck Klein. Are you kidding me?

How can Walker not be a Hall of Famer?

OK Bill you convinced me Larry Walker should be in the tourist trap built for the sole purpose to attract visitors to a town. Now if you could just convince the voters that put people into that tourist attraction.

You're right. I've looked at Walker's home-road splits for his time in Colorado. There was no pattern. None. You could have spit out a spreadsheet, stuck it in HAL 9000's input slot, and he would have blown his mainframe trying to predict future splits. It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen. Well, almost.

Further examination isn't necessary to blow apart this whole notion that "Walker was made by Coors". During his MVP season, he was better on the road. Sure, his home average is better (.384 vs .346--he's still playing out of his mind both at Coors, and anywhere else). If you look at his OBP as expressed as everything but his AVG, he's more disciplined on the road.

Home .460 OBP - .384 AVG = 0.76 of OBP from walks, HBP. 36 BB in 350 PA = 10.3% walk rate.
Away .443 OBP - .346 AVG = 0.97 of OBP from walks, HBP. 42 BB in 314 PA = 13.4% walk rate.

And look at the power variance.

30 2B/4 3B/20 HR at home. .709 SLG
16 2B/0 3B/29 HR on the road. .733 SLG

His isolated power metric was through the roof anywhere he hit.

In 1995, his OPS was 1.131 at Coors, .845 on the road.
In 1996, his OPS was 1.248 at Coors, .523 on the road in only 83 games.
In 1997, his OPS was 1.169 at Coors, 1.176 on the road.
In 1998, his OPS was 1.241 at Coors, .892 on the road.
In 1999, his OPS was 1.410 at Coors, .894 on the road.
In 2000, his OPS was 1.062 at Coors, .770 on the road in only 87 games.

At this point, 1997 looks like an outlier on the road. He still hits well away from Coors (.850 to just under .900 is still All Star caliber). Then 2001 comes.

In 2001, his OPS was 1.256 at Coors, .965 on the road. 20 HR at home, 18 on the road.
In 2002, his OPS was 1.124 at Coors, .917 on the road.

Very few players are going to OPS over 1.000 on the road. There are those rare guys who put up nearly identical numbers everywhere:

Willie Mays
Home: 1,490 games, 335 HR, .302 AVG, .387/.567/.953
Away: 1,502 games, 325 HR, .301 AVG, .382/.549/.931

That's sick.

Stan Musial
Home: 1,524 games, 1,815 hits, 252 HR, .336 AVG, .427/.582/1.009
Away: 1,502 games, 1,185 hits, 223 HR, .326 AVG, .407/.537/.944

That's a 65 point variance.

Mickey Mantle
Home: 1,213 games, 266 HR, .305 AVG, .428/.569/.997
Away: 1,188 games, 270 HR, .291 AVG, .413/.545/.958


I think the variance that is seen with a good number of today's hitters is due to the drastic changes in environment from one park to another. Think about a National League hitter until recently, that might have, in two weeks time, played in Coors Field, Candlestick, Chavez Ravine, Bank One Ballpark, and Miller Park.

A hitter might deal with thin air, wind blowing in from San Francisco's bay, artificial turf, natural grass, or a retractable roof in Phoenix or Milwaukee. I would think that's a lot of adjusting. It's only natural a hitter would be more comfortable in their home park. But Walker has demonstrated he can hit for power anywhere. And his fielding will play anywhere.

You're right. I've looked at Walker's home-road splits for his time in Colorado. There was no pattern. None. You could have spit out a spreadsheet, stuck it in HAL 9000's input slot, and he would have blown his mainframe trying to predict future splits. It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen. Well, almost.

Further examination isn't necessary to blow apart this whole notion that "Walker was made by Coors". During his MVP season, he was better on the road. Sure, his home average is better (.384 vs .346--he's still playing out of his mind both at Coors, and anywhere else). If you look at his OBP as expressed as everything but his AVG, he's more disciplined on the road.

Home .460 OBP - .384 AVG = 0.76 of OBP from walks, HBP. 36 BB in 350 PA = 10.3% walk rate.
Away .443 OBP - .346 AVG = 0.97 of OBP from walks, HBP. 42 BB in 314 PA = 13.4% walk rate.

And look at the power variance.

30 2B/4 3B/20 HR at home. .709 SLG
16 2B/0 3B/29 HR on the road. .733 SLG

His isolated power metric was through the roof anywhere he hit.

In 1995, his OPS was 1.131 at Coors, .845 on the road.
In 1996, his OPS was 1.248 at Coors, .523 on the road in only 83 games.
In 1997, his OPS was 1.169 at Coors, 1.176 on the road.
In 1998, his OPS was 1.241 at Coors, .892 on the road.
In 1999, his OPS was 1.410 at Coors, .894 on the road.
In 2000, his OPS was 1.062 at Coors, .770 on the road in only 87 games.

At this point, 1997 looks like an outlier on the road. He still hits well away from Coors (.850 to just under .900 is still All Star caliber). Then 2001 comes.

In 2001, his OPS was 1.256 at Coors, .965 on the road. 20 HR at home, 18 on the road.
In 2002, his OPS was 1.124 at Coors, .917 on the road.

Very few players are going to OPS over 1.000 on the road. There are those rare guys who put up nearly identical numbers everywhere:

Willie Mays
Home: 1,490 games, 335 HR, .302 AVG, .387/.567/.953
Away: 1,502 games, 325 HR, .301 AVG, .382/.549/.931

That's sick.

Stan Musial
Home: 1,524 games, 1,815 hits, 252 HR, .336 AVG, .427/.582/1.009
Away: 1,502 games, 1,185 hits, 223 HR, .326 AVG, .407/.537/.944

That's a 65 point variance.

Mickey Mantle
Home: 1,213 games, 266 HR, .305 AVG, .428/.569/.997
Away: 1,188 games, 270 HR, .291 AVG, .413/.545/.958


I think the variance that is seen with a good number of today's hitters is due to the drastic changes in environment from one park to another. Think about a National League hitter until recently, that might have, in two weeks time, played in Coors Field, Candlestick, Chavez Ravine, Bank One Ballpark, and Miller Park.

A hitter might deal with thin air, wind blowing in from San Francisco's bay, artificial turf, natural grass, or a retractable roof in Phoenix or Milwaukee. I would think that's a lot of adjusting. It's only natural a hitter would be more comfortable in their home park. But Walker has demonstrated he can hit for power anywhere. And his fielding will play anywhere.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the final vote. Honestly, I'm surprised Walker has come to the final ballot. I might be giving the voters too much credit, though.

But what do I know? I'm still miffed that Dick Allen isn't in the Hall. He doesn't have the counting stats of a guy that played for two decades. And I know he was frigid with the media, and that creates backlash. And he wasn't a terribly good fielder. But he could absolutely mash.

When you've had a career of 1,759 games, and your career OPS+ is the same as Willie Mays and Frank Thomas, one point better than Hank Aaron, Joe DiMaggio and Mel Ott, and two points better than Manny Ramirez (with the steroids!) and Frank Robinson--how the heck are you kept out?

He's got the 19th highest OPS+ in baseball history.

well he is in now..76 percent of vote..needed 75..

so he got in.....real good player....with harold baines there...makes sense for what their voters would do i guess... i wouldnt want baines in there..but i agree Walker is better than baines HOF wise for me

now its curt schlling's turn..

apparently there was one person that didnt vote for him

Oh god....don't even get us started on Harold Baines.

There should be shame in the fame for something that lame.

Congrats to Larry!

I still don’t think Schilling gets in. Next year is the year if he’s going to do it. Pretty weak field. But don’t see him overcoming his personality.

/

I'm really glad to see Larry Walker got in, it was well deserved (for reasons the stache laid out above).

I think some other guy got in too, but who cares? Walker Walker Walker!!!

He gained 9.1% of the vote this year and needs only 5% of the vote next year. With no slam dunk candidates entering the ballot in 2021 you can pencil Schilling in now as a sure-fire Hall of Famer. I definitely see the case against him but barring a Twitter implosion over the next 12 months I don't see a scenario that he doesn't get in.

Harold Baines doesn't even belong in the same breath as Larry Walker. Completely inappropriate comparison.

Baines 38.7 bWAR in 2,830 games. He accrued 1 WAR every 73.82 games.
Walker 72.7 bWAR in 1,988 games. He accrued 1 WAR every 27.34 games.

Baines doesn't deserve in the Hall of Fame. Walker clearly does.

Todd Helton fans are doing cartwheels today.

And it doesn't seem like the hallowed OPS+ number actually accounts for it enough either.

Using the career numbers of Boggs and Gwynn again:

Boggs OPS: .934 home .781 road .858 total

Gwynn OPS: .859 home .835 road .847 total

Yet both have the same career OPS+ per season.

Not quite though. He needs 5% more next year and the same exact showing for that 5% to matter. I think 12 months is a lot of rope for a guy like him too.

I'm a lot bigger than I was in my 20's and 30's too, and it has nothing to do with PEDs. Unless they've categorized cheeseburgers and donuts as PEDs...

I'm so glad Walker got in. I think he deserved it for the reasons others have cited, but on top of that he's going to be one of the Hall's best living members. Just a really great guy...even though he's Canadian!

I'm happy about Jeter purely for selfish collector reasons. I have the home plate that he scored his first run on in 2014, along with a ball from the game that he signed.

i said Baines is not as good as Walker so we are in agreement on that

However, Walker is a HOF and so is Baines.......

there should be a separate wing for first ballot HOFs..perhaps there is? I never been there

Ok, now that made me laugh!!!

Bill- I am continually in awe of the depth of your research!!

Thank goodness you never listened to anyone calling you a stats nerd, or saying 'get a life'.

Your work is so very valuable to what makes this site so appealing to me.


Thanks Bill!


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