Are We Slaves To The Registry?
 

This may just be a variation of the state of the hobby, but focusing on specific issues within the hobby in terms of what has created "the current state of the hobby" may shed light and insight as to how we got here. A series of basically "what if" questions are listed. Comment on one or more or add a question to the list. Please note there are no rules to restrict posting on this thread.;)

What if the PSA Registry did not exist?

What if Pop reports did not exist?

What if TPGs did not exist?

What if VCP did not exist?

What if eBay allowed only 99 cent opening bid auctions without BINs?

What if high end cards didn't cost so much? Would less nefarious and fraudulent behavior be attracted to the hobby?

Are current products dependent on manufactured scarcity going to survive? What if there were no current products? Would the vintage market be adversely affected?

What if auction houses didn't sugar coat their "lots" with flowery descriptions and just laid them out like a flea market?

What if all cards did not have borders? Would centering fanatics go insane?

and finally

What if you couldn't find this thread because Net54 was banned from the internet? :eek::eek::eek:

Net54 banned from the internet? Interesting concept. Sometimes I think about what would happen if I just deleted the board. It is a 1 click function in the admin. Poof.

I double dog dare you.:D

Well, it won't happen but if it was done how could you respond? :eek:

And I think Frank asked too many "what if's".

.

Just a menu Leon, so members only have to decide which question to answer, rather than what question to ask.

We maybe, me no (answer to subject line question).

Brian

I was only joking. Sorry to derail your thread.



What if the PSA Registry did not exist? The world would still be here.

What if Pop reports did not exist? See #1

What if TPGs did not exist? See #1

What if VCP did not exist? See #1

What if eBay allowed only 99 cent opening bid auctions without BINs?
See #1

What if high end cards didn't cost so much? Would less nefarious and fraudulent behavior be attracted to the hobby?
no

Are current products dependent on manufactured scarcity to survive? What if there were no current products? Would the vintage market be adversely affected?
See #1

What if auction houses didn't sugar coat their "lots" with flowery descriptions and just laid them out like a flea market?
See #1

What if all cards did not have borders? Would centering fanatics go insane?
yes

.

It would be a lot like 1990. Except with eBay instead of the SCD -- and also except for the part where someone (aliens?) trim the borders from all cards. It was OK, but I was operating in the dark much of the time.

True, and certainly much of what has happened in the last thirty years has gotten the hobby to its current state. But to be clear, the questions are a menu. In a restaurant you rarely order everything on the menu, and on this thread you need not answer all the questions and come up with a unifying concept.

For example, for those of us who eschew the registry and its impact on pricing the answer to the title question is “no” as we are not slaves.

or

My problem with pop reports are the plethora of ways that the information may be totally inaccurate, leading to incorrect assumptions regarding rarity.

I wonder how many posts have used both eschew and plethora.

My responses
 

I don't know.


I hope that my responses help to clarify my positions on these important issues.

Rick

What if....
 

Frank forgot the most important question:

What if Leon's quarter never existed?

Answer: Bufferfly effect!

Patrick

I eschew gum...among other things.

What if eBay allowed only 99 cent opening bid auctions without BINs?

I would have a lot less cards as I rarely win auctions.

The answer to the first four are that the hobby would be less wide spread and, even though my involvement with the registry is pretty minimal, I believe worse than it is today.

How would I respond? After one month - "Leon who....?" :p

Now about all those "what if's?"

TPG + Registry + Pop reports have all contributed to this hobby getting a bit whacky. Are they negatives? That depends on your interest in the hobby. For a lot of collectors it's just increased the price of card board. For others it has increased the value of their "card board portfolios".

Was listening to this crust classic just thing morning.

Slave, slave, slave
From the cradle to the grave
You made yourself the system's slave

Amebix- Slave

And if you escheat, you will be estopped.

I have a client that is really into 1950's classic cars. He has 18 that are in perfectly restored condition. He can tell you about every component and why each is valuable but the first thing he tells you about is how many were made and how many still exist.

The registry is nothing new to many forms of collectibles and it was only a matter of time until it came to cards. Something that attempts to track scarcity in quantity and quality is what drives collectibles markets so the registry shouldn't be viewed as something that is a negative.

Just this week Joe Orlando on his Twitter feed disclosed that PSA graded a 1932 U.S. Caramel William McKinley. In 28 years they have only graded two copies. Without the registry many would say this card is very rare and only a few are known. With the registry you can confirm that in 28 years PSA has only assessed two copies so it proves just how rare it is. Information is the key to confidence in collectibles so the more you can display the better.

The fact that a population report exists is extremely positive for card prices and I think it is a wonderful thing for the hobby. This scenario isn't slave like under any circumstances. Why anyone tries to fight the trend makes no sense to me. It isn't getting smaller but only exponentially bigger.

In terms of some of these what if's. It is pointless to even discuss because they do exist. We don't live in the great depression. There is money coming from every corner of the world so keeping a lid on prices just to appease a few isn't even possible. Why wouldn't people who collect things of value monitor and track prices? Of course they do that is a major driving force on how people determine what they think something is worth.

Puffery? Every consumer product has some level of puffery. Why do women where lingerie? To make you want it more. It takes seconds to take off but it certainly does the trick and entices you. People can pretend all they want that the fantasy descriptions don't help but they do. Humans like to read something and get excited and many auctions houses do a great job of putting lingerie on cards.

All of the information that is available to collectors has helped the hobby and I for one have no interest in going back in time.

Which flavor?:D:eek:

When rarity is related to condition?

And when condition for registry purposes is related to grading?

And when the difference between a “9” and a “10” is so trivial that if the same card is submitted 10 times and receives a “10” twice and a “9” eight times?

And when on the days that the card is in a “10” holder it is worth 10 times the value of the days that it is in a “9” holder?

And when the most valuable graded card with a 00000001 cert number has been trimmed?

I do believe there is problem with delusion of those who

1 - believe in the integrity of the Registry game

2 - willingly support the exponential price escalation to add a point to their registry set for self-aggrandizement

3 - demean competing third party graders as grossly inferior because of valuation differential between identical cards

4 - seem to think that hobby would be better served if there was but one monopolistic third party grader selling a myth.

I respectfully disagree and will tell you how I really feel if requested.

I have no problem with classic cars though.;)

Agree with Peck...
 

I don't know why many of the Net54 old-guard and frequent posters to this board want to look down upon the increasing trend of popularity of the PSA registry. Maybe they don't like the idea that the hobby has changed.

I have put forth the theory on earlier posts that I believe the PSA registry and its' network effect is the most important reason for the persistent gap in prices between the graded cards of PSA and other TPG's.

Call it being a slave to the registry if you want. Call it Kool-Aid. But despite what the septuagenarians and sexagenarians of this board may believe, the hobby is changing and the registry is a big part of it. MLB is not going back to 154 games. Kids are not learning cursive anymore. Kids write with only one space after a period now. And the registry is not going away. Embrace the change rather than mock it.

Skewed logic. The only fact you can confirm is that PSA has graded only two copies of that particular card. It does not speak to rarity. Your statement is based on the assumption that anyone and everyone who owns that card would want it in a plastic tomb with an artificial number attached to it. There could be any number of non-sports collectors who don't give a rats rump about getting their cards graded and tracked. They could be happy just owning the cards and keeping them as they are.

Let me count the ways:

1. It devalues knowledge. Putting together a top registry set doesn't require that the collector learn how to assess a card, just how to read a flip.

2. It increases competition between collectors, needlessly IMO. Registry geeks are constantly measuring themselves against other collectors rather than enjoying their compadres' collections.

3. It drives up prices by giving rich collectors reasons to battle over top specimens, which has the collateral effect of pricing many of us out of certain issues.

4. It dramatically increases the cost of collecting: slabbing stuff is expensive.

5. It makes storage of a substantial collection more difficult.

6. it grants a third party with a profit motive tremendous power over the hobby and its participants.

Actually, it only proves that the people who get paid for their opinions have seen at least one copy of that card, but possibly two different times.

The registry is here to stay, but like many other collectors I ignore it because it has nothing to do with the way I collect. I don't compete with others and don't really care who has the best cards. I'm interested in baseball history, not slabs.

And as Adam said, it drives up prices to ridiculous levels. It becomes a "1%" hobby, and I can't play on that level. To each his own.

“Are current products dependent on manufactured scarcity to survive? What if there were no current products? Would the vintage market be adversely affected?”

I am not a big card collector but I love this discussion. I started with cards in the late 1980’s like many 40 something’s but focused on autographs when I reentered the hobby 16 years ago. When I caught the bug to buy a few of my favorite cards from the 80’s I found out about the ‘registry’. To be honest, it has kept me away from collecting cards more than a dabble here and there because I don’t like the insanity surrounding this concept. But most people love it and I understand both sides.

Regarding the first question above, I’m sure this has been discussed over and over but PSA also creates manufactured scarcity when they slap a 10 on a flip. I have always wondered if there is some unwritten rule of how many 10s a grader can give out a day. There is so much wiggle room for a grader that they really control the market. I am waiting until grading is fully computerized and PSA launches a separate registry for those cards. Then I’ll be on board.

You obviously have no clue what you are talking about. If there was a plethora of them out there after 28 years of card grading more would have worked their way to third party graders. If this recent grading specimen comes for sale the "puffery" used will be glorious.


From PSA card facts.


The classic 1932 U.S. Caramel Presidents set (R114) contains one of the most highly-sought non-sports cards in the hobby, the extremely scare William McKinley card. The McKinley card was actually not confirmed to exist until the early 1990s and is so scarce that the set is considered to be complete at 30 cards rather than the 31 with McKinley included. Distributed in limited supply to encourage continued sales of their product to children attempting to complete their set. A redemption was available by sending in a complete set of cards to be exchanged for a one-pound box of assorted chocolates. In fact, the cards would also be returned with the candy, though defaced by cancellation stamps or punch holes.

I started reading this forum in 2010 and didn't really start posting much at all for another five years or so. Back in the early days when card prices were just starting to take off the spread between SGC and PSA in terms of prices was fairly modest. This has always been an anti PSA and in love with SGC board and so it was easy to have the position of I hate PSA and they are what is wrong with the hobby even though they were dominating from a new card submission standpoint. Fast forward to today when there isn't a week that goes by where a thread is started highlighting the extreme spread between the two in prices and now it is no longer fun and games but hurting people in the pocket. I get it that people are upset because they know that the market has moved in a way that doesn't financially support their position or to its fullest extent and that hurts.

I can't help but laugh when people say that putting together registry sets doesn't take anything but money. That is completely flawed logic. Anyone who is putting together registry sets generally submits cards on their own, picks and chooses cards from other TPG and tries to cross them through either an in holder cross or a crack out. When I am staring at a raw card and determining if it is worthy of submission there is no flip on it and I need to make a good decision one whether to submit it because it isn't free.

Manufactured scarcity is what the hobby needed because sales of new cards had fallen so much that creating a lottery ticket scenario was the only way to get people to buy packs. If there was demand for 2 million of each card a year they wouldn't be doing this but those days are never coming back. The onset of third party grading population reports is met to do the same thing. It has been extremely effective in doing just that and is only going to get bigger.

There is one thing in life you can't do and that is stop change. It happens whether you like it or not and the card business was for ever changed when third party grading entered and that trend is only getting stronger and so one can either change with the times or fight it that is their choice.

Corollary #1
 

As an appendage to my prior post

If an item is truly rare, the sky is the limit on pricing. For example, if there are only two of an item extant, and ten people feel they “need” to have it in an auction, then have at it.

However if there are only two of an item based on a PSA Pop Report such as a “10” of any card, and if there are 87 “9” s of the same card or item and 342 “8” s of the same card, all of which are barely discernible as different without an electron microscopic, then there is something rotten in Denmark.

If you cannot differentiate between these two examples, you have missed the point of this thread. I am not on an campaign to eliminate the Registry or PSA, nor am I eager to return to the early years of the twentieth century and get my Cobbs by smoking Piedmonts.

Members of this board are entitled to have different opinions. Mine is not unique. Has the hobby become a lottery ticket or a casino based on manufactured rarity? If so, I consider that unfortunate change. I prefer to collect baseball history rather than sit at a blackjack table, and I have done both successfully.

TPG has many positives, but what I like least about it is that it has, IMO, resulted in the slabbing of a vast number of altered cards, enriched many a criminal card doctor, and created a generation of collectors who seem to have no knowledge of or concern about alteration.

David- I agree with you completely that the hobby is changing. Everything in life changes, and we don't always accept those changes easily.

But are you suggesting that part of what makes the new hobby great (my word "great") is buying raw cards to get them slabbed, and to look for undergraded cards to get them crossed-over? That doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy. If anything, it corroborates Frank's original point that we are becoming too beholden to third party grading.

Another way the hobby is changing is that set breaks have become extremely popular at baseball card shows. From what I hear, they have become a rage. But it seems to me that they could just as easily take place in a Las Vegas casino as they would at a baseball card show. It's really more a game of chance, like roulette or blackjack, than it is a form of card collecting.

So while these changes may be embraced by some, they make me long for the good old days. Hope the old fashioned way never goes out of style. Again, the history of what I collect is much more important to me than what label a quasi-expert slaps onto a plastic slab. That said, collect whatever you like, however you like doing it.

I'm definitely an old timer about collecting, in sentiments if not age, and am apt to criticize, and sometimes mock, the registry and grading. Believe it or not, I've never sent in a card for grading and have owned a total of perhaps 10 graded cards. However, there's no one-size-fits all to collecting, and if people enjoy set breaks and the registry that's no harm to me.

In the 1990s, I collected and sold modern cards (along with old), so I never criticize modern collectors or modern cards (sans those dumb autograph cuts ones). I think many modern inserts are rather neat.

To each his own.

Well Frank...if TPG'ers didn't exist, neither would the majority of your questions?

I believe the registry is voluntary...so we are not slaves to the registry...we are slaves to the TPG'ers!

I can see how some people like the registry, others dislike. Whatever you like is ok. Years back I started a couple registry player sets, eventually stopped, not my cup of tea. The registry has helped drive up prices, that is good for what I own, no real complaints here on that topic. After all, don't we all want our stuff to go up in value.

As for TPGers, the biggest thing I like is being able to buy a PSA 7 card, and for the most part, you actually receive a true NMT card. Back before TPG, you often bought a supposed advertised NMT card, and was disappointed when you got it - not really NMT, overgraded and actually maybe EXMT. Then you get to haggle with the seller to send it back, the return, the wait, finally get a refund if all goes well.

Barry my comment was simply saying that it takes more than money to create a top registry set. You have to hunt and take chances and money alone doesn't do that for you. There is real skill involved in finding raw cards or cards in other third party graded holders that you think you can achieve grades that work for you. I have hunted every single day since August of 2009 to build my sets. Left work dinners to go bid on cards forced wholesalers to bring their I-pads to lunches prior to me having a smart phone so I didn't miss out on chances to win. Stayed up wayyy past my bed time to make sure I won. Whatever it took. You have to want it and have passion and this notion that people who collect high grade cards only care about the slab is ludicrous.

I don't poke fun at people who only buy 5's and 6's. For the most part people buy what they can afford and so if that is what is in someone's budget so be it. If they are getting enjoyment out of buying and owning trading cards fantastic.

There was no graded wrestling card market before I came along. There wasn't countless people that said wow that is a great investment I need to get in. I decided to collect a genre of cards that I cared about and that would give me enjoyment. That is the best reason to collect in my view but there are plenty of others that are just fine too.

Many on here play in the big boy space where cards go into the millions. No one can convince me you should be buying a card that is more than 5k and not have investment as part of the reason you are buying it. I think a lot of people try and convince themselves that they are only doing it for purity. There is no such thing. There is no right way to collect but what is constant around here is people taking shots at those that like to try and put high grade sets together as if they are what is wrong with the hobby. Who in there right mind would rather stare at a card that is beat to shit vs. near perfect? No one. High grade cards are drastically more ascetically pleasing and if money was no object everyone would collect them. You have to stay in your lane and collect what you can but firing shots at those that want the best is ridiculous.

I am not an average guy. Have no desire to be average and so it wouldn't make sense for me to try and collect average cards. It took me seven years to finally get the last card for my 82 A Wrestling All Stars set in a PSA 9 or higher. I cried when I put it on the wall in its new home because it stood for dedication and passion and kicking ass.

Third party grading is here to stay and so one can choose to live with it and ride the wave or keep their cards raw but it isn't going anywhere and the trend is only getting stronger.

Thanks David, and I understand that you collect the way that makes you happy. I think the registry has caused prices on high end cards to increase so drastically that there are only a small number of people who can even compete for them. I collect VG-Ex to Ex not because I like to see flaws on cards, but because high grade cards are out of my range.

When I saw the 1932 U.S. Caramel Hornsby sell for $52,000, I was astounded. I understand chasing after a Wagner or a Plank or a 52 Mantle, because those are iconic cards and there are countless collectors who would like to own them. But in my 37 years in the hobby, nearly 30 of them as a full time dealer, I never once had a collector come to me looking for a U.S. Caramel Hornsby. That's an esoteric set, and while Hornsby was a great player, his cards are not as popular as Cobb or Matty or Wajo. That price was almost surely a product of two registry collectors going head to head until one of them blinked.

So yes, as you said the hobby has changed and many of us are scratching our heads and watching prices reach levels that we could never have imagined.

The concept of a 100 year old card looking near perfect is difficult for many of us to grasp. I saw the PSA 8 Wagner on display in Beverly Hills before the Sotheby’s auction where it was purchased by Gretzky and McNall. It indeed looked near perfect, but there was a problem with the card that was not disclosed at that time. Near perfect is not synonymous with untampered with and authentic. The genesis of the Registry began with the grading of that card.

If I had millions to invest (and I do not), and despite my love of the game of baseball, I honestly doubt that investing in near perfect 100 year old baseball cards would be my cup of tea. Call me crazy. That’s fine with me.

Okay, you're crazy.:)

I just looked at the Pop report and there is one with none higher. I use term the best and someone will say it is not the best but only PSA says it is the best but regardless the new owner can say they own the best example that exists. The price reflects that.

One of the comparisons I have drawn in the past is cards can be viewed as art. In a case like this while $52,800 may seem like a ton of money for a single card there are pieces of art that go into the hundreds of millions. Many pieces that are not exactly ones that most even find appealing looking.

Trading cards are relics of history and so in reality as you are aware all it takes is two people with a lot of dough that want to own something and the sky is the limit.

Quite frankly when I see what some modern cards sell for it is easier for me to understand this price than some of those. I think a huge percentage of card prices are bragging rights. Getting to say you own something very few can. There really is no utility that cards provide and they are simply objects to admire. With there being small differences in cards that grade in this range the one thing you can revert back to is the idea that it is the finest known copy and so to someone that is worth a lot. It is a balancing act for me at times paying high prices just for condition rarity and in reality it comes back to the ability to replace it in that grade and the fact that I want to have the #1 set. Only one person from each set can say they do and this does fuel prices no doubt.

When I used to show people my wrestling cards they would laugh. I would say laugh all you want this is the only PSA 10 so far that exists. Are you serious??? Yeah. OMG that is really cool. This is just how humans are.

On the subject of modern cards, there are some amazing threads on Blowout about altered high end cards that get past PSA and Beckett. Scary stuff.

I have seen those and it is eye opening. The modern market is less registry driven and more owning stock in a current player.

Look what happened with Tom Brady cards and Tiger Woods cards. You can literally own something that if they perform it can perform just like a share of stock. That is pretty exciting in reality.

Spot on about bragging rights and the Registry.

Fortunately I am just fine with my paltry 6 figure collection. I never brag and rarely mention my collection to friends, who are uniformly disinterested. I’m sure some of them think I’m crazy as well, but they are kind enough to keep it to themselves. And I do enjoy the hobby.

There are much worse things you can do with money. I started pouring money into cards after getting hit pretty good trading options in 2008. I wanted something that regardless of the direction of the value I still had something vs. an option contract that just went up in smoke.

You have to have some cards that have performed quite well and I have found that when people here about the increases that have occurred they don't think the idea of paying for a piece of cardboard is that silly anymore.

I love telling people about what has occurred in the high end baseball card market. I don't own any of it but to me it is awesome that you can buy something that is tangible and it can perform in a similar manner to stocks. I think it is really cool.

My smartest move ever was buying about 100 Tiger Woods rookie sets at $9 just before he (and they) took off. LOL I sold them for as much as $400 it was insane. My dumbest move ever was not buying the other 400 sets I was offered at the same price.

Congratulations!

That must have been incredibly fun as it was unfolding.

I was dumbfounded what people were paying; the thing was the Tigers that came out of the sealed inner pack (he was on the bottom) usually had some corner wear so it wasn't like you could buy a set and be assured of a 9 or 10, not even close. But pay they did. To put it in perspective after his recent win they rebounded from worthless to the low 100s.

I was just having the conversation yesterday with my twin brother about cards and how one of the draw backs from collecting wrestling is that it is obviously a work so you don't have that ability to speculate on their performance like you do sports cards. The closest thing to a real competitor in the true sense of the word is Brock Lesnar and his cards haven't really moved in any significant fashion.

The recent surge in many of these top star cards can directly be attributed to their actual performance and that correlation is quite appealing to people.

There is a guy on Twitter Gary Vee that has recently been pumping sports card collecting from the investment angle and it seems reasonable that this past performance just like in stocks is going to bring in new money. This guy appears to be buying large lots of various cards and it doesn't take much of this activity to send prices soaring.

I don't know if it is a good sign or a bad one when speculators like this come in with gobs of cash because on one hand it is bullish on the other it could lead to a serious imbalance in the market and an eventual serious decline.

People do like to speculate and these enormous gains have really been incredible to watch. It is pretty remarkable that a Tom Brady card sold for 400k.

Jeter hasn't played in years and his cards have surged tremendously in the past two months. Baffling to me. Maybe it's Gary's doing?

It could be.

Obviously everyone by now knows who Evan Mathis is but to my knowledge he is the only high profile collector/dealer that was a professional athlete that is really known in the hobby. I am sure there are others but he is pretty visible. If more athletes or entertainers ever get involved it will get really crazy.

Lets say someone comes to me with their million dollars and says Dave I want to get this put to work right away. You can buy this sum of almost anything in the financial markets and not move it too much unless it is a micro cap stock and that wouldn't involve me anyway.

You can't say the same thing in cards. I could see "investors" coming in and saying lets get some cash put to work and if a Jeter used to be 4k they could easily move it to 6k just by trying to allocate some funds. The price elasticity of cards is really high and fresh capital can create a tidal wave.

Look at that guy Nat Turner with basketball. He has clearly moved cards in that market.

+ 1
 

Amen

Clearly in 2016 people moved prices on certain rookies quite significantly. And not to say it yet again, but man did I take grief from certain people in making the claim that the market was being manipulated or whatever verb you want to use.

Some of those cards will never sell for those prices again. Others are in the process of rebounding and in the case of Jeter new highs have been made.

Once something is off the ground it can take on a mind of its own. What is the difference between 10k and 11k? Obviously $1,000 but it is only 10% at that point. How does one determine if something is worth $10,500 to them or $10,800? Beats the hell out of me.

+100, David. I got so sick of the disparaging remarks on Net 54 regarding auction house lot descriptions. They MUST represent the consignor with all their might. While it is true that many items are all too well-known, their fame must needs be refreshed for potential bidders to ponder whether they want to bid to own said item. Then there are items that were scarce when issued, and somewhat rare to downright rare today. All too many collectors have little to no knowledge of them, not to mention their significance. How are they going to learn, or become intrigued and then intensely interested, lest the auction house let them in on what they're looking at?

--- Brian Powell

Change is indeed inevitable. In the tobacco era kids picked up discarded Cobb inserts off the floor of the tobacco shops if they were not yet smokers.

In the 50s kids like me could always get a nickel or two from their mothers for those 5 cent wax packs of Topps cards sold everywhere. A few collected sets but many made their bicycles roar.

In the 80s and 90s we were lured back into the hobby by those billions of high end Upper Deck cards that were destined to be the gold mine of the future, just as the 50s Topps Cards were beginning to appreciate in 80s,

But now how many “kids” are buying those $100, $500 and &1000 packs of manufactured rarity without getting a secured loan, understanding they only come with an implied guarantee of possibly recouping your investment, if you’re lucky, actually only if you're pretty damned lucky.

When old baseball cards began to show significant appreciation, I tried to determine what new, future collectible should I begin to hoard. The result of my brainstorm I do not believe has come to fruition yet, but I considered rarity in making my choice.

Drumroll please

Unopened Happy Meal Toy Packets from McDonalds

If they had taken off in value, just imagine the national depression that would have ensued in the young adult population who had consistently ripped open the toys before touching their burger.:eek:

I guess the unease underlying all of this is the degree to which the registry proponents are willing to hand over control of their hobby to a monopolistic for-profit business, unregulated and beholden to no one except its shareholders, with all that implies. All the talk of markets and investments and so on, yet no consideration of the fact that the registry exists on the whim of whoever runs it, as do the awards, as does the difference between grades of cards, especially at the top levels with modern cards. PSA decides not to grade an issue or not count an issue and the registry doesn't reflect it. For example, PSA won't grade any exhibit cards except baseball. Which means that the player sets for other sports are woefully incomplete and inaccurate, often missing a whole run of a subject's cards that predate the PSA-approved rookie card. Or it won't differentiate between T205 backs, so a Drum or a Hindu counts the same as a Piedmont or Sweet Caporal because PSA acknowledges no difference.

Third party grading came about because it was a natural evolution of an industry that assigns grades to a tangible asset and that grade can have a significant impact on the value assigned to it. This is nothing new.

Cars, coins, stamps, diamonds all had third party grading services prior to cards.

I purchased my wife's engagement ring when I was 27 and didn't do an ounce of research. We found a yellow diamond and took the jewelers word for it on the ratings and just assumed it was the case and had our grading report tucked away for many years. Thirteen years later we celebrated our ten year wedding anniversary late last year and she wanted a major upgrade and the first thing I said to her was we need to do some research before we even consider purchasing a new one. It turns out the rating company of our ring was a much lower tier company and over grades the diamonds. I was afraid of this as soon as we started looking into it. The diamond is probably worth 30% of what I paid for it and such is life. That said once we had more information we realized the price range it was going to take to get what she wanted and shortly there after moved forward with purchasing a much larger stone and setting that is graded by the PSA of diamond grading.

This right here is exactly why third party grading is a necessity to the trading card market.

The only reason that cards have been able to achieve the level of prices they have is because a non biased entity gives their opinion and the marketplace has chosen to assign higher values based on it.

Not a week goes by that we don't read about a card surfacing on EBAY that is fake or a story like the guy who is pushing the idea he recently found an extremely valuable Babe Ruth and the third party authenticaters act as a referee and protect consumers from being scammed.

All three major third party graders had the same market opportunity and market forces decided that PSA was king. Was it first mover advantage? Was is better service? Was it marketing? Was it tough grading? Was it the advent of the registry? It probably was a combination of all of these but what really did it is that the most successful collectors that exist have either all or a huge percentage of their collections in PSA graded slabs. I can't speak for Marshall Fogel or Ken Kendrick or Donald Spence but something gave men like this the confidence in the brand and decided to pursue cards graded by PSA.

The third party authentication market is close to a monopoly at this point but no one is forcing anyone to use PSA other than the market. The market is built by a large number of participants and their actions have created the current climate. No one has to participate in the registry. Some think it is great others think it is completely stupid but the population reports that dictate the registry have clearly had a significant impact on values and will continue to.

No one has turned over the hobby to anyone. PSA doesn't set the prices for cards. EBAY doesn't require cards to be graded to be sold. PSA doesn't force someone who submits their cards to join the registry. There are 145,501 active sets currently so a lot of people have decided this is a route they would like to take.

I am a market guy and not a socialist so none of this bothers me. I can either choose to accept it or not. I have.

Not only all of this, but grading can also come in handy when buying/selling in an online world. My area is relatively small and rural compared to a lot of the country. The last show I went to was the 2015 National. Prior to that, I probably hadn't been to a show in ten years. That means that pretty much all of my buying and selling is done online. I am almost to the point to where I don't try and sell anything ungraded online any longer. It is just so much more cut and dried to have cards graded prior to selling them. By the same token, unless I knew the seller really well or had done a lot of business with him, there is almost no way I would buy ungraded cards online anymore.

The other end of this is that buying graded doesn't excuse one from doing his homework first. It is on me (if I am the buyer) to educate myself about the card(s) I am buying both in terms of pricing and in terms of any other nuances particular to that card. There is absolutely no substitute for knowledge. I am still buying the card and not the flip, and in many cases I am still pretty selective on whom I am buying from, especially if the purchase is substantial. I say all of this as someone who has not really been a "grading guy," but I am coming to grips with the direction transactions in this hobby are taking.

And YOU obviously drank the kool-aid from the people who get paid for their opinions.

Which is another way for me to say that it is YOU who have no clue what you are talking about.

There is NO WAY for you draw a correlation between the number of cards in the pop report and the number of cards that exist in total.

I happen to have four of these cards in my safe deposit box, and trust me when I tell you they will never be listed on the pop report during my lifetime.

During my last 40 years of driving around the country scouring baseball card and collector stores I have accumulated many other incredibly scarce cards the existence of which would collapse their markets if I released them all at the same time.

When my kids start the sales, you might be among those who run screaming from the collapse. Apologies in advance.

Doug "there's a big grin on my face right now" Goodman

To suggest you can't draw conclusions from a pop report is ludicrous.

A pop report doesn't tell you how many exist but if a third party grader has only reviewed a few after 28 years and has graded nearly 33 million collectibles it is extremely rare.

Using this logic I am to assume there are hundreds of Honus Wagner's floating around that aren't accounted for. Please.

Congratulations on owning four. Hopefully your children make a fortune one day selling them.

Apologies, you are correct, you can draw many conclusions from the pop report.

But, any of those conclusions that involve cards outside of the pop report won't be based on any sort of reality.

Question
 

Doug, you don't think the pop report can be used to draw any accurate conclusions in regards to rarity or condition sensitivity?

No.

The only certain conclusion that can be drawn from the pop report is that no more than the number listed have been looked at by the people who get paid for their opinions.

There have been numerous threads on Net54 regarding cards being resubmitted. I would be of the opinion that, on average, less cards have been looked at than are in the total pop report for many cards.

That's why I often joke that Dmitri Young should be used to submit cards to the opinion sellers, they always seemed to like his, even if they hadn't liked them previously (with a different owner).

I don't think anyone would argue that an unbiased third party who could examine cards for alterations, and set a grade to determine value, would be an asset to the industry. But from that premise, to what actually takes place, is a vast abyss.

The TPG's are missing altered and trimmed cards at an alarming rate, the grading is so inconsistent that a card can be resubmitted three times and receive three different grades (it happens often), and it is believed by many that certain high volume submitters get preferential treatment with their grades.

So why don't we say that third party grading solves some problems, but creates a host of new ones. A far from perfect industry that, IMO, could be doing better.

4 McKinley's? That is amazing. Are they cancelled?

Pres
 

Doug, here is a graphical representation of the '32 President set showing population total graded by PSA. You're unable to draw any statistically accurate conclusions from this?

I am completely baffled by your opinion on this topic. If someone thinks a Pop report is a perfect road map they are indeed mistaken as many cards are graded by one company and crossed over at some grade or cracked out and once again submitted to the other company falsifying the number of cards graded.

That said when a card comes from a very popular set of cards that have been heavily collected by advanced collectors for a long time time if there was a ton of them you would know it simply by looking at the Pop report.

Here is the sale from 2014 where they notate that less than ten copies are known. No where does it read that there aren't more but at this stage of card grading Robert Edwards is confirming it is indeed a rare card using the population totals.

https://www.robertedwardauctions.com...ly-discovered/


The 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth has three graded by PSA. Once again this doesn't mean only three exist but it is 100% accurate in conveying that it is indeed an incredibly rare card.

I can confirm once more 100% that a population report can be used to determine condition rarity. I only have one set of cards that is rare like your McKinley cards but I have lots of condition rarities. How come there is not a PSA 9 or PSA 10 of the 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series B Ray Stevens? When looking at the pop report it is the only card from all three sets that one doesn't exist. You don't think it is easy to ascertain by looking at this scenario that this card for some reason is tough in high grade condition? I will give you the answer because every single copy I have ever seen is cut 70/30 or worse and so none will qualify. Will one surface? I don't think one will ever surface but it might. But I know for certain there won't be many and therefore incredibly tough in high grade.

I am not certain if your opinion is based on extreme position bias because you don't like third party graders or what but you are simply wrong.

Not in regards to how many exist in the entire world outside of the pop report. How could I?

It's certainly logical to assume (ASS U ME) that a similar breakdown proportionately would exist outside the pop report, but nothing in regards to actual counts.

Are there 10 more McKinley cards, or 10,000?

There is no way to KNOW.

Did the printer have a time machine hidden in his shed because he was actually from the future, and had gone back in time to print himself a bunch, but then he got stuck when his time machine got broken, so the extra cards he printed are being handed down to his (in the past) children, to eventually hand over to his (future) family so that they can all make a fortune from when they are worth way more than they currently are, to be sold just before my family crashes the market?

MAYBE!

Doug "maybe my grand father was that printer" Goodman

pop
 

Doug, you made the claim that no accurate conclusions can be drawn from the pop report, but you're now changing your claim to total population. I don't think anyone is making a claim that the pop report can be used to determine the total population of a card. As David pointed out, the pop report is far from perfect, but in my opinion, it is the best data source available, hands down, to analyze card rarity and condition sensitivity.

I am equally as baffled by your opinion, but at least I have some logic on my side.

No, you would not necessarily know that.

Auction houses like to use terms regarding how many are "known" If I open my refrigerator and note that based on the fact that I have one hot dog remaining from my Five Guys purchase yesterday (yes, their bacon cheese dogs are great), and say to you "I know of only three hotdogs" my comment would have no relevance or connection to the number of hotdogs in the world.

If by "incredibly rare" you mean that only three have been seen by the people who sell their opinions, then yes, you would be correct. That does not mean that the guy who lives up the street from you who you have never met doesn't have 8 of them in frames in his den, but he probably doesn't. But he COULD.

I don't know where to start with this paragraph, suffice to say that you CAN NOT "confirm ... 100%" as shown when you say "it might".

Actually my hatred of the people who get paid for their opinions is irrelevant to this conversation.

Prove me wrong, and I will apologize and agree with every comment you have made, and donate $1,000 to the schools or classrooms of your choice on https://www.donorschoose.org/

Doug "my hate does not define me, but your proof is not proof" Goodman

No further comments from me Doug.

I am not going to change your mind and you are not going to change mine.

You can draw various conclusions from the pop report, but none of those conclusions give you an accurate provable number on how many of a given card exist outside of the population report.

Yes, based on the pop reports you can ASSUME that a certain card is more rare than another, but it is an assumption, which can not be proven.

Man, let's forget this pissing contest where nobody is going to convince anybody of anything, to me the fact that Doug has 4 McKinley's is just huge.

Seems like you should try, if only to help the kids...

https://www.donorschoose.org/

A better place for the money that some of you pay to have people give you opinions about your cards.

And of course a better place for my money than the cards I buy.

Doug "I'm a riddle wrapped in an enigma, with logic sprinkled on top." Goodman


PS - I am not sure that all of my opinions expressed in this thread were actually opinions, many were statements of fact.

I'm not trying to convince anybody of anything, I am just pointing out fallacies in logic, and reminding those reading that not everybody kneels at the alter of those who get paid for their opinions.

Doug "but I have my knee pads if needed" Goodman

I think TPGs are a net positive for the hobby, but I don't really "get" the whole highest graded thing or the gigantic price disparity of a one grade difference.

Most of my cards in the $300-500 range, and none of them are worth more than $1,200, but at any price point, I would rather have an absolute rarity that only comes up for sale once a year or every few years than a condition rarity that can easily be found in very similar condition any day of the week.

I have one set listed on the PSA registry -- a set of 1972 STP racing cards. It isn't the highest rated set, and it never will be. But I love the set because there is only one other complete set listed, and the set is nearly impossible to complete in any grade.

The differentiation between absolute rarity and condition rarity is the key and well stated here.

A TPG has no control of the former and complete control of the latter, particularly at the 9-10 level.