Another card investment thread
 

Hi all,

A family member has about $10k that they would like to invest. They asked me about doing coins/precious metals but I think those are generally not the greatest for returns. They have other investments (mutual funds/stocks) so I think this is kind of to diversify and/or for fun. I have seen huge returns on popular cards lately and I think vintage is probably the safest way to go. What are some if the cards you would say have the best upside in the next 5-10 years? I’m thinking a nice Mick (1952 prob out of the range), but think maybe getting a few nice cards would be bettr than just 1. Any thoughts would be appreciated! Thanks a bunch!!

1907 dietsche cobb fielding rookie.

That would be a great one, but it will cost over 10K--there is a psa 2 going in a auction right now at 16K with the juice----I think lower grade 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth's and T206 Ty Cobb's would be a good investment for under 10K.

T206 commons in PSA 6-7 range

you're right...you won't go wrong with centered cobb/ruth cards

I couldn't agree more but they are going up quickly it seems.

http://luckeycards.com/r319rutha.jpg

Early HOFers
 

Best guess, other than the generally accepted Ruth/Gehrig/Cobb triad, would be for well-centered, mid-grade Cy Young, Nap Lajoie, Walter Johnson and Eddie Plank cards from mainstream sets like T206, Cracker Jacks, etc.

Also, some specific sets have cards that I think have potential over 5-10 years, such as Diamond Stars Bill Dickey, low # and high # cards, in higher grade, the #1 Lefty Grove card in high grade, 1934 Goudey Foxx, 1938 Goudey Feller, and many others similarly situated in mainstream sets.

There's resources out there, like the top 100 or 200 cards in the hobby, that can give you guidance on what is viewed by some/many as the most desirable or valuable cards, many of which an be had for under $10,000 in very desirable shape.

Good luck!!

Better yet, figure out what they're going to add when they change it to the Top 300 Sports Cards in the Hobby and buy the highest graded PSA examples you can afford of those 50 cards.

You will get as many answers as there are posters. Which I am sure will be helpful.

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

Years ago I always went to the barber shop to get investment advice, but since I now have no hair, I’m stuck with Net54.:eek:

Great point.

I would suggest they get a box of 500 silver Maple Leaf ounce coins for about $8,500 and the best PSA graded T205 Joss they could get for the remainder of the dough. To me, that is the most under-rated card in that set.

I'd recommend fine 18th century english furniture...always in good taste!!!!

I hope you followed the sage advice not long ago to buy bitcoin.:eek:

I think it's just a sly way to get people to divulge what they're hiding in their collections.

Not anymore than people who blindly put money into the stock market or their 401k without researching the funds they have chosen. People should have a full understanding of what they are investing in regardless of the type of investment.

I'd put the money into multiple blue chip cards over one card. Let's say you buy that Cobb PC and you make $5,000. Maybe that's good, but I'd rather buy all the Green Cobbs I could with 10K and then make the multiples later. If you bought 5 Green Cobbs for 10K 5 years ago you're looking at a huge windfall now.

Based on the rarity and where the green Ty Cobb T206 is, Cobb's T205 has seemed undervalued to me for a while.

This was my first thought. This is not good. Once people who have no idea what they're doing start getting in, it usually signifies a problem.

leons card is gorgeous

I hear 18th century English furniture makes excellent fire wood.:)

10k
 

Something Ruth related...

Quoted for truth

My opinion. Invest in the bluechip sets of T206, 1933 Goudey, and 1952 Topps. People will always come back to those sets. Of the 3 sets, I think Goudey have the greatest potential for growth. Many of the key Hofers are undervalued IMO.


And if you're looking outside of the Big 3 sets, I think a good investment is picking up the true rookie cards of HoFers. Oldcardboard.com has a great list of HOF rookie cards. Postcards and Exhibit RCs that were once ignored are now seeing a surge and they will only go up. Collectors more and more care about first appearances and I think the Bowman Chrome Prospect craze has fueled that.

I would not "invest" in cards.
THAT SAID, there are ones I clearly think are going to decline, long run.

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Cobb seems like a blue chip legend but if even a TASTE of the social justice movement gets into this hobby, he is going to take a serious hit. I know I avoid Cap Anson cards for this reason. Try selling that in 20 years for a profit (over inflation).

I bought Cy Young as one of my first cards because it seemed cheap for a guy with contemporary name recognition (CY Young Award hit the news every year), and he will never lose the most wins record. But I think there's a ceiling to his appeal, and it is approaching.

Ruth is the king. The gold standard.

Fair point, but even when the baby boomer generation dies off, kids of baby boomers will still want to collect Mantle as it was their father's favorite player of that generation.

And I think 30 years from now, the 1952 Mantle will always be a top 5 card in the hobby. That card single-handedly started the card collecting craze of the 1980s/90s. Now kids from the 1980s/90s are in their 30s and 40s and they will have spending power for quite some time.

Huge difference in that the stock market has been the traditional vehicle for investments. The same cannot be stated in any realistic or tangible way regarding baseball cards.

If you want a rare cobb you might be able to offer around 10K. I think the seller may take it (and no, I am not the seller and do not know the seller) :D

https://www.ebay.com/itm/PSA-7-TY-CO...kAAOSwGIZcU24N

This is it in a nutshell. More people put more money in blue chip stocks or index funds without due diligence than in sports cards, and I'm sure EVERY investment (or quasi-investment) has a certain percentage of people doing this.
One of my biggest lessons, whether for my PC or cards I intent to flip, is to buy cards that I will enjoy even if the market collapses. I may lose, but I will still have something to enjoy.
With that in mind, I'd also suggest that your family member consider other places to invest this money. From your description, this $10k isn't going to make or break them, so I would ask them what they are interested in or passionate about and find something that they can get personal enjoyment out of. Art, wine, comics, tulip bulbs (ok, maybe not that), vinyl, whatever. This could be more than an opportunity to make money, this could be a chance to develop a hobby and gain more experience and expertise in a field they enjoy.

I think it's completely realistic and tangible to say that people put money in the stock market and in baseball cards without doing enough due diligence. And real estate, currency, stamps and on and on, traditional or not.

LOL

And Barry, I don't personally care if people want to invest in cards without knowing or even liking them. It's American and I have a laissez-faire attitude.

I can only speak for myself, but as someone in his 30s whose father liked Mickey Mantle, I will never buy that card anywhere in the same universe as the current prices. He's below Dimaggio on the collector scale to me. I got Mantle in my Ted Williams-tier price range. Seeing the 52 sell in the MILLIONS.....uhhh, that is going to crash. If I didn't know any prices, I'd think a 52 Mantle PSA 7 would be worth about $8,500 to me right now.

Agreed on Ruth. I think Gehrig and Jackie Robinson have transcendent appeal too.

One word: Plastics!

Sorry, while I agree that people should know what they're investing in, this logic is spurious.
Line up people with money to invest and ask them which they would sooner choose, baseball cards or the stock market... with no knowledge whatsoever of either, most if not all will choose the stock market. Again, one is tried and tested, the other, not in any perceivable way, hence, the comparison is not apt.

If you were investing in Confederate statues I'd worry. I wouldn't overly worry about a similar dynamic on vintage baseball cards/players. If it does hit vintage cards there will be much bigger issues to be concerned about than our hobby.

Prices reflect that you are definitely in the minority regarding this thinking. There seems to be no cap on Mantle's value, and to say they will "crash", with all due respect, seems utterly ridiculous.

invest
 

Wow, everybody and the mother got opinions on how to spend 10 grand of somebody else's money !

Me Too - I say find an incredibly high end graded( 8's and 9's .or higher PSA registry top 5 ??) complete set from early 70s …..there will always be somebody somewhere,someday that will pay big bucks for that type of thing

Zeenut Joe Dimaggio

Late 1980's Buick Grand National, original and in cherry condition.

i think 19th century photographic cards have started to pop. That would be my recommendation.

I think the point of comparison with the stock market is that both cards and stocks have uneducated people investing, which is apt because the risk inherent in that approach (regardless of investment type). This thread is not an "either/or" exercise about lining people up to pick sides, as I have read it.
Even so, on this tangent, I might take the side that the sports card market has at least some perceivable way been tested through a few decades of auction house results, even if this testing is in its infancy.

I would buy the cleanest Babe Ruth ball I could find.

If this "tested through a few decades of auction house results" was in any way whatsoever perceived as legitimate, investors would be lining up, as traders are constantly looking for the newest or next big thing. This is not happening in any shape or form.

And the original question postulated was should people putting money into cards with no knowledge be concerning to others, with the answer I questioned being NOT ANYMORE SO than the stock market....
so yes, there is an either/or as baseball card investments to an endless plethora would be MORE concerning - regardless of knowledge of either - because of the aforementioned reasons given, ie, established market, registered companies, accumulative gains/loses, feasible research and on and on...

Put it all in pre-1982 pennies. With the current meltdown value of just under 2 cents per penny, you could almost double your money in a few weeks. Just don't tell anyone. :cool:

Does anyone also collect/invest in higher-end art? I'm wondering if there are similar correlations between art and baseball cards.

I collect various forms of art but I wouldn't categorize them as higher end! In the art world higher end implies many many millions to me?

A little cold water: posts that begin like this usually signify market tops.

With this question, I'd say stick to something that isn't Mickey Mantle. Both the 51 bowman and 52 topps are very readily available if you're not concerned with price. I just don't see big upside there. I'd pick older stuff that may or may not be in favor right now. I don't think you can go wrong with a T205 or T206 Cobb or Young in the long term and I think those would appreciate faster than a Mantle.

As a few others have said, every post is a different answer and if we're discussing this, we're likely at the current market top. It will be interesting to see where the card market goes!!

I think we may be seeing things from a different angle. But from my corner of the hobby (and I am one of the smaller-scale collectors out there), and forgive me if this is addressing a different point than you are making, this IS happening in ways, shapes and forms. Investors do appear to be lining up, and have been. Various threads on this board address the numerous articles by Forbes on investing in baseball cards, collectors here and elsewhere often bring up the specter of "foreign investors" or somesuch when diving into price surges, PWCC has a section on their website for "Investors," the term "investment grade" is now well-established in the hobby, and even threads on this board dating from 2002 discuss investment in cards - and I'm sure there's many many other examples out there.
Anyway, I feel like this is a big tangent on a thread designed to help a board member's family in finding cards to fit their goals, and the tangent is perhaps belabored by now. Apologies to the OP if this has detracted from your inquiry!

For me not one bit. TPGs have limitations, but they are commoditizing (raw cards into value buckets) makes it easier to assign value, thus adding liquidity, thus adding value. In fact, the more we get to i) a market where graded cards are the standard and ii) price indications as a result of online sales research (ebay and auctions), the more our cards will retain value and withstand future market dislocations.

The fact that people are interested and looking into card collecting is a GOOD thing, not something to be weary of. (I'd be more weary of having no where to hide in this asset bubble environment we are in.)

That's perfectly fine, but my point was that if investors who don't collect are buying cards to sell to other investors who don't collect, that's not the bedrock for a solid market. People are of course free to do whatever they want, I'm just suggesting that it's the real long term collectors who make the hobby what it is. Speculators on the other hand create the bubble economy. You're confusing what we are free to do versus what is prudent to do.

Regardless of how you try and rationalize it, the point is irrefutable that investing in baseball cards in no way compares to making investments in the stock market, and never will. How knowledgeable people are is inconsequential, for investor security and peace of mind, the stock market will always trump fly by night investments... period.

PSA graded Michael Jordan rookies.

Dare I say that most of the suggestions are biased from actual collectors, not investors. I'm not claiming that Cobbs, Ruths, or some of the other suggestions haven't appreciated quite a bit. But, if you truly were in it to maximize your return, you probably wouldn't ask a bunch of collectors their opinions or base you approach on the last 12 months of anecdotal trending. I suggested T206 commons earlier because they seem to outpace most of the HOFers as a percentage over the past several years. Additionally, if you evaluate the risk of higher grade T206, 33 Goudey, 52 Topps HOFers being altered and at some point being "outed", the lower grade stuff or commons provide a little more security over the long haul.

Again, these are just my opinions and anyone serious about investing in cards should do a lot more research and a lot less listening to the collectors on this board. We're just going to tell you what we want and what we're willing to throw our wallets at.

Clearly at an impasse. I respect your unwavering commitment to not budge on the point, but will respectfully disagree that these two investments, or any two things in general, cannot be compared. I've had many a productive discussion on the matter and will look forward to others who are willing to explore the topic.

I pretty much agree with all of this... within the context of modest, steady growth. But when a market becomes so hot so fast that Joe Schmoe down the street starts asking about what cards to "invest in", that has historically signified the end of the food chain. That's when the insiders dump everything on Joe for inflated prices and leave him with the shit end of the stick. That said, I think you make an interesting point that grading has caused a bit of a paradigm shift which may very well be a permanent disruption. Only time will tell.

What is there to budge on? If you were able to provide a cogent counter to what I stated, you would've done so, and with all due respect, I saw no evidence of that. In my opinion, you were not able to dispel the fact that the stock market to most would be a safer investment than baseball cards.

It's nothing at all personal, you seem like a well spoken, intelligent individual. I'm sure there are many topics we would agree on.

And be fair, there are certainly things in life that are not comparable.... like maybe a Ford Pinto and Ferrari F40 :D

If this was what we were talking about, it was totally unclear to me. I wasn’t addressing this, and I didn’t get that train of thought from what I was reading.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks so much for all of the comments thus far! I sort of mentioned it in the first post, but this family member already has money in the market and is familiar with that, but wanted to branch out a bit from that or precious metals. It may be art or something else, but I am a sports card collector and having seen some of the gains being shown in the "blue chip" vintage sports cards, I thought I would ask the question since I haven't had that kind of money to potentially invest. I sort of doubt they will go the way of investing in cards, but just like art or wine etc., there is definitely an upside to collectibles if the right ones are selected. Thanks again!

Ummm...did you read the OP? They are asking questions of knowledgeable folks, like you would ask an investment adviser about which stocks/funds to buy. Face it, sports cards have become a commodity.

Ummm....Ruth was no golden boy. If the social justice movement is now asking to remove Thomas Jefferson statues and his name from buildings (they are), what makes you think they will ignore Ruth. Pretty soon Yankee Stadium will be "The House that Ruth Mantle Arod Whitey Billy Mo Built" Mo may be the only one left standing.

And back to the OPs question, I would invest in high grade, recognizable names - Ruth, Cobb, Mantle, Robinson, Aaron, Mays, Williams, Dimaggio, etc.

Yeah how offensive to name something after Jefferson. Who's next, Lincoln?

+1

Add to that...

Joe Jackson...Derek Jeter, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper.

Oh, and T206 rare backs.

PS- Barry (Hi Barry), where have you been brother? Non-Collectors have been dipping into the Hobby for YEARS! And as someone above mentioned, that's a good thing for the Hobby. Recognize that. ;)

I'd pick one card you'll enjoy owning and looking at for a while. Go with a big name and hope for the best. I'd stick with Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Joe Jackson, or Mantle.

I wouldn't worry about any social justice warriors. I doubt many are in the hobby and I also doubt many in the hobby care much for their opinions. I sure don't.

10,000 the spend
 

10,000 to spend

Checking some recent EBAY "sold"

1951 Bowman Mantle

PSA 7 $31400

PSA 4 $7800 - $8500

PSA 5 $9400

1933 Goudey Ruth (most colors)

PSA 4 $5800 range

1934 Gerhig #37

PSA 8 $28801 (PWCC)

PSA 6 $5996

PSA 4 $3153- $4276

1934 Goudey complete set VG/EX $5200 Jan/19 (Good Buy) #37 and #161 PSA 2.5

1993 Jeter SP

PSA 9 around $4800

PSA 8.5 & 9 $9500

I assume these might be bought off line at a little better price ? (except may be the 1934 Goudey complete set?)

Hi Michael,
I sold baseball cards for thirty years, but never knew the level of commitment of each buyer. I didn't know who was a serious collector and who was a speculator. I just cashed the checks.:)

But my point is learn something about the hobby before you sink serious money into it. The more you learn yourself, the better off you will be.

When I was a kid - the Barber Shop had a Pristine example of a Jackalope mounted on the wall. Such a rare creature - Haven't seen another one since.

Yelich
 

Yelich

Unlike coins, which have an intrinsic value, Stocks (without dividends) only carry a perceived value, similar to cards. They are only worth what someone will pay, and are subject to a catalysts within and outside if their respective marketplace.

In this regard, cards are are a similar "investment vehicle" to (non-dividend) stocks.

A
 

I respectfully disagree on these points. Everything is “perceived”.

Coins intrinsic value is limited to face value which is nominal. Anything above is collectible value, same as baseball cards but without the attachment to history.

Stocks without dividends are valued based on its growth rate of future free cash flows (augmented by one time tax cuts, unsustainable accommodative central banks, and admittedly a strong economy) discounted by a historically low Goldilocks discount rate, and impacted by smoke and mirrors stock buybacks and positive headline risk fomo.

Cards are impacted by general asset (re)valuation, employment, and people’s liquidity requirements as it impacts short term supply and demand.

They all have different coefficients, but would suspect coins and cards have higher correlation and r squared than cards and stocks.

Beanie babies are making a comeback. Invest now! Especially those with a sick patch

Intrinsic - belonging naturally; essential. ie face value, even melt value


Stocks - you don't even own a piece of paper anymore. What does future cash flow, or this "value" growth rate you speak of, allow you to spend? it's only worth what someone will pay at a given time based on what they think it will be worth.

edited: and each there is someone selling a stock convinced it will go down, to someone convinced it will go up. This happens with cards sometimes

Location: Wisconsin

Biased!! :eek:

Well said Joshua.

I do believe that there will continue to be price appreciation in the best such as Jordan or Mantle rookies. Beyond that, though, long term I believe many bad investments abound. How many millennial or gen z kids exist that will shell out hundreds or thousands for high grade commons? What about middling hof rookie cards, tough or not. There may always be a hard core few who need a Kiki cuyler auto rookie but if I were holding these types of “investments” I would not feel any more secure than the speculative equivalent in any other market.

The card I bought as an investment that I worry about the least is my 86 fleer Jordan. Remember the best investments are those which appreciate quickest after purchasing. For me it is that card.

Don’t mean to hijack the thread to stocks but growth (no dividends) is particularly (over) valued in low rate environments because it’s the compound affect of discounting that future growth is muted.

Hence value without any dividends (spending $). Add demand from stock buybacks and lack of options being us (market) is the best house in a bad neighborhood and the reduction Of publicly availble stocks from pe buyouts, and you have a meltup

My nomination for the Net54 Bryson DeChambeau Award.

However you failed to mention the spin rate of the spokes in the card market, which is less of a factor in stocks with potential dividend accrual resulting.

I'd be lazy to do the book keeping - same way I feel about bitcoin. With my TD Ameritrade account I can make as many trades as I want - I know I'll be getting a tax statement at the end of the year.

I think it would be interesting if we started seeing funds that invest in sports collectables - maybe they already exist.

I tend to look at relative values. Like why has the green Cobb T206 skyrocked but the 150 series Young portrait hasn't? They used to be much closer in value. I'd pick up a nice Young or two. I'd also focus on nice eye appeal T206 portraits. Boring but solid. I'd also throw in a bet on a few of the top Mike Trout RCs in PSA 10 or Beckett 9.5 condition. They've doubled in recent months but given their potential for a LeBron like further surge, maybe worth it.

Beckett 9.5s are dead for the most part. Sell at a huge discount to PSA 10s.