Market flattening definitely
 

Watching last few auctions, definitely feels to me that with rare exception prices have flattened out and are not rising like we saw last year. In LOTG, Heritage, and REA, I walked away with nice Gehrig/Ruth items at prices lower than I anticipated. Not complaining. On the positive side, things seems a little more orderly and weeding out "irrational exuberance" in the market is probably a good thing. Also positive in that to the extent the market has corrected there is no widespread crash of any kind as many have predicted on this board.

On the negative side, I haven't recovered as much on items consigned as expected. Goes both ways.

There is no doubt there has been an influx of very high quality cards in a short period of time recently (at least to me). That has to have depressed things a little bit. When auction after auction has incredible cards some of them have to fall.

I've used it as a buying opportunity, although, I must confess, that I have over extended myself a tad. I've tried to focus on value and buy non-mainsteam items that don't come up every day. I picked up a E253 Cobb last week at just over 1/2 my snipe. I was floored! We'll see - fingers crossed.

The market is a bit flooded right now and for better or worse, the big auction season is tax season. I guess you gotta spend your refund on something. Everybody will take a breath and then we'll see a ramp up of activity as we approach the National.

I don't think this is true
 

Steve, have you seen the recent prices on T206 Cobbs? CJs? '48 Leaf Jackies?

Sure, maybe the market has cooled on '55 Clementes because there are 1000s of them. There are winners and losers right now, and claims of a market-wide flattening is not an accurate assessment.

High end cards, postcards, T206s and the cards noted above are more expensive than they have ever been. A PSA 8 1914 CJ Cobb sold for 144K the other night; it sold for 44K less than three years ago.

I have to agree with the last 2 comments. The pre-war cards I've been watching and bidding on seem to all be going for record prices. Cobb, Jackson, and Ruth seem to be pretty hot right now. A psa 3 e90-1 Jackson just went for 60k or so. And a 14 cj psa 2 for 30k.

The prices of a lot of cards have fallen since last summer, but not all of them. When collectors started seeing the insane prices high-end Clementes, Gretzkys, Ewings, etc. were bringing, they decided to put theirs up for sale as well, and like Wondo says, this ended up flooding the market. Now the ones that are still going strong are those that very few collectors own. If we see a high-end 51' Parkhurst Gordie Howe Rookie selling for a crazy price, can hundreds of other collectors list theirs for sale too? Nope, because there are not that many out there.

Insightful

More Steve and less Courtney.

I am way less in-tune with the market changes than some of you guys, and my targets are on a completely lower level most of the time, but from what I've seen, prices seem to still be steadily increasing. Not sure if this is true, but it seems that the lower-end T206/Pre-War HoFers seem to be steadily rising in value. Lajoie has popped nicely over the last year, year and a half. Some of the other guys seem to be increasing in value by the $10s (if that makes sense) which might not seem like a lot to some of you, but to me it's a decent pop.

I love the card market.

For some of the card that may have flattened, like high-grade CJs, I think we are now seeing a bump in the appealing low grade and mid grade cards as collectors look at what has happened to the high-grade stuff and figure that they had better get an example of what is a relatively rare card while they still can.

48 Jackie is an iconic card. And prices are going generally DOWN over the last year.

Even more dramatic for the higher graded Paige Leaf card.

PSA 7
This year: $66,000
Last year: $108,039

SGC 84
This year: $52,000
Lasr year $71,820

i guess prices are catching up...or back to the shills!

Is this the part where some of us cite cards that are going up in value? I never get the point of this fairly regular exercise, when no one really collects the true entire spectrum/market of baseball cards.

In other words, at any given point, some cards sell for a massive increase, others a modest increase, others modest or larger declines. One guy cites a PSA 7 Paige, the next guy hangs a lantern on the Shoeless Joes at Heritage or the Mantles at REA that sold for record highs, and on and on the cycle goes.

So why truck in broad generalizations? We can't lump together all sportscards into one "market" anymore than we can lump together all cards in the same grade.

I agree, you can obviously cite cards going the other way (up). All I said in my original post is that in watching every major auction this year I can say pretty confidentially that a large swath or cards is either flat or down from last year. Obviously their are cards that have gone up. But when one of the first cards someone cites back to me is the Jackie Leaf card, and a quick search of VCP shows that card is actually trending down, I think that's worth pointing out.

Agree on that. The key thing is that may all the cards we want in our collections take a nice dip right as we find the one we want to buy!

I just checked on the leaf Robinson and Paige. The last 2 PSA 7 Robinsons were way off center, and should have been expected to sell at a lot less than previous nicer examples. As for the Paige the sale at over 100k could have been just two guys bidding it up. One happened to hit a month later so the previous under bidder didn't have as much competition. It's tough to predict the status of the market as a whole from one transaction. But both Paige sales were well over the amounts from a couple of years ago.

We need to create a baseball card index... top 25 PreWar cards that are liquid enough to see price movement. Focus on varying grades... then we can have a real apples to apples comparison of what is going on.

Yet another broad generalization based on limited data. The pricing arrow for every grade other than 3, 7, and 8 is up. 6 should be up but it doesn't reflect the Heritage card which doubled the average this past weekend.

We can trade limited data points, but I'm using this data to REFUTE your assessment that there is a hobby-wide slowdown. As I said, there are winners and losers, and if the particular cards you collect are heading down, and you're a buyer, congrats.

Speak to someone who owns one of the auction houses that advertises here. I have.

One of the hallmarks of mania is the rising incidence and complexity of fraud. (The big short)

I've been following the 49 Leaf Jackie's pretty closely the past year in grades 4 to 6. I've been the underbidder many times until I finally got one- the SGC 70 in the last REA Auction- and I can assure you prices for that card have been strong every time. In fact, the PSA 6 in Heritage that closed a few days ago sold for 16.8 K with the juice. That is astonishingly high.

Likewise I am stunned at the prices for T206 HOFers in almost every grade. I only got back in the market this past year after years of being inactive, and my jaw drops pretty regularly. Green Cobbs, Young portraits, among others are just nuts.

Market seems awfully deep and very strong for most cards. Sure, some of these 100-200K cards are overpriced and will see a dip. Take one or two bidders out of the mix, after they win one, and the market will be affected for sure.

impressive! :eek::eek::eek:

The Jackie 6 that sold for Heritage was about 250% higher than one sold in Match. I'll be interested to keep my eye on that one. Could have bought three of them for that prices in December. Odd.

It had incredible eye appeal and great centering. That might explain it.

Nothing posted on the internet is "confidential" ;)


Steve

Can we at least agree that the market is not flattening "definitely"? Is that ok to say?

IDK about a dip, I mean I am the member that started the other thread about all the money in the hobby.

I cannot really comment on these modern post ww1 cards, but tons of stuff from pre-1915 are continually seeing record prices and have for awhile. t206 green Cobbs have gone insane, absolutely insane and they are everywhere. CJ stars have steadily risen while Jackson, Cobb and Matty go thru the roof.

Didn't REA set a record for a sports card auction in regard to gross revenue this Spring?

in the past month or so REA, Heritage, Memory Lane and Goldin have generated about $30 million in sales. I guess it would have been 50 mil if the market wasn't definitely flat.

PSA 7 Ruth sold for $552,000 and 1907 Seamless Steel Tubes Ty Cobb with Cobb writing content for $84,000 as the last Heritage auction. Seamless Cobb in Good 2 went for $24,000 in the last REA auction. Autographed 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb--$26,000. Non-autographed Fielding Pose just under $11,000 at auction in 2015 in PSA 5, up from the $4,000 I paid for one in the very same grade in 2011. I'd say rare and significant items (condition rarity for the Ruth) are doing quite well.

Regards,

Larry

Also that jackie final hammer price may of be because of a 2 person bidding war.....

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

After the Ruth rookie card, the second highest grossing card in Heritage this week, the Mantle gem 10 56 Topps, only dropped $22,000 from the one they sold last Fall.

Bottoms up . . .more purple Kool Aid. Line is forming.

Third highest grossing card in Heritage, the Mantle 1951 Bowman, exceeded the last sale but is comfortably below the average sale price for the last year.

But everything is going up. Terrible how confused I was.

Drink up.

The guy who won the one last fall is out and no longer bidding (only a guess, of course). Take one heavy bidder out and the price will go down. The market for six figure cards is thinner than the one for meat-and-potatoes cards (defined as those that most serious collectors will regularly pursue). The loss of even one bidder on the high end cards may lower the final price. Also, some of the six figure cards are plentiful. There are thousands of Sandy Koufax rookies but look what the PSA 9 went for in REA. It's a crazy price given the availability of high end examples.

Two different cards, not the "same exact Ruth card." Cheaper one had poor centering, print lines and a soft corner.

Not sure why people who disagree with a blanket statement like yours are drinking kool-aid. My entire collection isn't worth a quarter of one of these cards you use as examples, so I don't care much if a "market" is flat. I've never looked at baseball cards as a market. In other words, I have no dog in this fight.

nothing goes up and up forever. last year there were artificial forces driving up prices of common high grade cards. this combined with the shilling/reserve/auctions bidding on their items...past/resent behavior of auction houses has artificially driven up prices over the last few years.

if a minor correction is occurring...or more normal valuations are being realized...who cares?

If you consigned the top three selling cards sold at Heritage this week you got about $200,000 less than they sold for a few months ago.

Yeah, sure, its up up up.

I remember a PSA 10 Rose going for that--honestly do not recall the Ruth selling for that at PSA 7. I know Tony Arnold sold one in NrMt for just under $300,000 about five years ago. Two transactions just months apart tell you very little with regard to any investment in any event, since ALL will show ups and downs in the short term. Look at the forest and not the trees over a multi-year period, and the picture is pretty clear (although I do think the Ruth will trend downwards--although the significance is immense, there are just too many to sustain those prices IMHO). A 1925 Exhibit Gehrig in G-VG could be had for right around $6500 ten to twelve years ago; now it'll take $30-$40K. Now, if you are talking gem mint 10's of 50's and 60's cards, or even "9's" in some cases, you should see an up and down trend continuing over time, as these cards exist in significant quantities in very presentable but slightly lesser grades. I prefer to think that the supply of "collectors" paying tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars for a plastic holder and paper slip inside is pretty limited at any one time, but will vary with the ingress and egress of investor-types. $20,000 for a PSA 10 Rickey Henderson rookie, and right around $450 for a very nice 9??? There is no way in the world that the "10" is 40-50x the card that the nine is in any rational mind!

But to each his own--what a boring world this would be if everyone thought exactly alike!

Regards,

Larry

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

Of course the thread degenerates into the dueling banjo data points. Tit for tat. And accomplishes what? Why would one care about what prices other people's cards are selling for? Just collect what you love to look at.

True collectors do that, but they tend to do it much more if what they've collected is consistently rising in value. There's nothing wrong with accumulating a little wealth doing something you love.

Best wishes,

Larry

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

Comparing the market for otherwise quite common 50's and '60's cards in ultra high grade with truly rare and significant vintage items (read: 25 or even far less in existence) is apples versus oranges. Sounds like someone spiked the Kool Aid.

Larry

With rare exception, the market has dropped in the last 12 for most of the cards you guys talk about on this board. Pre war and post war. Ignore it if you want. I agree with Matty, collect what floats your boat. But acknowledge the economics of the market.

Heritage is an amazing auction house. And I have no doubt that if I looked at the top 20 cards they just sold more than 3/4 of them would be down from last Fall.

what's your motive for spewing your crap?

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

To be clear, you made the bold assertion that the market is "flattening definitely." You were presented evidence refuting that claim. I didn't see one person boldly claiming the converse, that all prices were rising. So your drink the koolaid comments are misdirected. Why is it so hard to admit that there are winners and losers right now, and a blanket statement, either way, is a weak argument?

Steve, no one is claiming that the market is going up in order to convince themselves their collections are worth more than they are. They're saying so based on how much more they have to pay for the same cards they were buying a year ago. Yes, this is an anecdotal endeavor. But the anecdotes that are coming out suggest that your claim that the market is 'definitely' flattening out is just wrong. Cracker Jacks are up by a lot from last year. T206s are up by a lot. Rare postcards are up huge. This is covers a wide swath of the hobby. Some issues are down, no question, that's always the case. But if you speak to anyone who has a major collection and spends 6-7 figures a year on cards I'm fairly certain that they'll tell you that card prices on average are going up.

It sounds like you're not taking the appearance of the specific card into consideration in the examples you've cited. Many of these price fluctuations for cards in the same grade are due to a big premium being paid for either a nice centered card, or one that looks like it could bump. When this is followed by an off centered or tilted card that barely made its grade, it can look like the market is tanking. More often then not this is just not the case.

For the cards and auctions I follow, 50s and 60s hof rookies are down from last year. Many other cards are up. The cards I've sold that were bought in the last year or two were sold for a profit. And the ones I'm after are going for more than I would have paId a year ago. If you think that means I'm living in a make believe world so be it. But it seems like reality to me.

I think Its easy to find arguments to make your point. Just last month Lou sold to Jim a Fielding Dietsche Cobb here in the BST for 1975.00 (unless Jim got him to even take less). The 25 Gehrig exhibit you mentioned, I agree could be had for 6500.00 3 years ago in G-VG condition. But using that same condition we look at the most recent sale of it in the Goodwin auction which went for a little over 18k and no where near the 40k.

Autographed cards are in an entirely differently collector arena. I would not even compare the same issue to each other. The Seamless Tubes Cobb is a great postcard. Like Barry said, if/when another one comes up, I'm pretty sure the winner of the last two (Heritage/REA) won't be going strong after a new example.

Most anything rare and good will always do well in a bear or bull market. Buy the nicest condition you can afford and buy stuff that has a known track record along with the right name (Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Matty, Wajo, Wagner, etc..).

I agree that postcards and CJs are hot along with other issues like SL Cabinets and auto cards. But those don't represent the entire market. Do I agree the market is flattening? No way! If anything, it's exciting seeing the realized prices on many issues and hearing about private sales that take place.

Welcome back, Barry! :)

collect
 

The point I see is that most of us are collectors who hope to recoup some of money in the future. At this point, if I need it and I spend twice or three times what the card is worth based on the next sale then I don't care. If I was an investor who bought heavy a couple of years ago and was still holding inventory then yes I would take a deeper look.

I think the key is to play consistently. Things go up and down and that's just how it is, but if you're in the market regularly, you'll do ok. I very seldom "make" any money from my cards...I figure the pleasure I got from owning them was the dividend.

Thanks Rob. Trying to have a little fun with it without breaking the bank.

I wouldn't base the market on Green W600s. Take the 2 top bidders out on those and you have 10-15k cards, imo.....

I find this thread very interesting.

You're saying the market is flattening definitely, yet list individual cards to prove your point.

If the stock market is down, does that mean each individual stock is down?
Conversely, if the stock market is up, is each individual stock up?

The answer to both questions is no.


Saying the card market is down, then using a few individual cards that are down, isn't an accurate assessment of the entire market. I'm not sure there's an accurate way to assess the entire market yet, at least across multiple landscapes. If you break it down into value categories ($50k-100k cards, $100k-200k, etc.), you can get somewhat of a more accurate assessment. But even then, it doesn't factor in what others have previously mentioned: if a significant bidder wins the card, they and their money are taken out of the market.

Only my opinion. No, I have not done a study of every card out there. The Dow Jones average is a sample of 30 (?) stocks that is used as a proxy of the stock market as a whole. People say the market is going down and obviously many stocks aren't. Like I said, if I looked at the top 20 cards just sold at Heritage (not unique one of a kind items like the great Cobb autographed card), I'd wager most of them, a large percentage, are down off their VCP recent average. The top 5 cards all are. Sure some aren't but I suspect most are. They are not crashing to the ground but I believe most have fallen. But it's a huge market and like you said operates on a lot of different levels.

The market
 

The market seems typical some up some down.

Go beyond just the flip grade...
 

You have to take into account not just the numerical grade, but characteristics within the grade, i.e. centering, tilt cuts, print dots, color, focus, gloss, other tricky tack flaws. Absolute NO WAY all cards of the same grade are created equal. There can be big price differences within the same grade due to eye appeal characteristics.

can this thread be moved to the horseshit section please?

there was a thread on this months ago that was callled something like 'card market is faaalllling' something like that...

always a thread like that with lots of people giving their opinions....will be another one in 6 months..

that older thread i believe i gave my theory of the waterfront properties or shortly thereafter..i dont judge the market on the Wagner or high grade Cobbs/ruths etc...those are in a subset of their own... Just like when the housing market crashed, the houses on the water in certain sections did not feel the same impact. Need to do apples to apples etc..

Of course some cards are up and some are down.

But overall the market is very healthy. No matter what data you use, it would be hard to say the market is soft right now. I know I haven't been able to find any bargains.

I agree with Steve, but I use more feel than data. It just feels like it's correcting to me based on my searches. Could be wrong, but this comment above if hilarious.

i agree in that the cards that "should" be correcting are...and thats only because they were artificially inflated and are common in most cases.

but if I look at my current collection...all I see is dow 50K!!!!!!

Ruth Rookie
 

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

this is also totally true...im seeing more of a premium for well centered cards than ever!

Card Market Status
 

+1! Well said Jeff!

Putting the word "definitely" in a thread title is sure fire way to stir up controversy.;):eek:

Card Market Status
 

Absolutely Peter. Especially holy grail type cards such as the Ruth rookie; 51 Bowman & 52 Topps Mantles; T206 Cobbs, Johnsons, Youngs; Ruth/Gehrig Goudeys; iconic 50's/60,s rookie cards; etc. Extremely well centered cards are realizing up to 50% premiums in some intances, substantiati why VCP pricing points are rendered virtually useless when analyzing a well centered card's market value.

The 717k Ruth was badly off centered, about 75/25.

There might be pockets of weakness but the trading card market as a whole is in an uptrend.

From the CLCT press release on May 3rd.


That increase was driven by a $0.8 million, or 7%, increase in coin
service revenues and a $0.4 million, or 11%, increase in cards and autograph
service revenues.



Robert Deuster, Chief Executive Officer, stated, “We are very pleased with
the performance of our Company this last quarter and the growth in revenue and
profit achieved so far this year. The year-to-date growth in our international
and modern coin businesses are indicative of our focus on organic growth in
segments where brand preference, innovation and presence are important. The
momentum in our sports card business reflects the confidence collectors have
in graded cards and the rate of card submissions remains very high. Our US
businesses during the quarter provided strength to our overall global grading
activity, where Asian demand was lower due to seasonal holidays, resulting in
another record quarterly performance. Our outlook for 2017 remains very
positive.”

Ruth Rookie
 

Not even close. I just measured both based on super-sized scans. $717K Ruth approximately 60/40. $552 Ruth approx. 30/70 (give or take of course). That equates to a 10% difference on each border or an overall 20% disparity to the visual appeal. Bottom line is the difference between a 60/40 card and 30/70 card is immense. Now add in two glaring print lines and that strongly justifies the pricing variance between the two cards.

Who's buying all the green Cobbs?
 

I tried, I really did, to buy a t206 green Cobb in REA but I couldn't pull the trigger on those phat prices. And then they went for even more $ in Heritage. I don't understand it. Will somebody please take a needle and puncture that balloon so I can buy one at a semi-reasonable price, please?

On a different note, hey Barry how are you? I hope you're well.

One thing to note are both are currently available for purchase.

Ruth Rookie
 

Interesting. Thx for posting the 2 scans. The centering disparity between the two cards is quite obvious. 👍

Maybe it's just me, but the one on the right is more off center top to bottom, has a print line of its own (albeit more faint), and is darker and not as focused as the one on the left (this could be from the scan, however). The corners are sharper on the left too.

In my book, they are nearly equal in overall appeal.

Doing fine Aaron. Looks like we both dropped out of the hobby for a while and then came back around the same time. Trust you are well too. :)

And I agree about those crazy Green Cobbs. I'd like to buy one too but when I see those prices I just can't pull the trigger. I remember selling VG's for around $250-300 a pop. I guess those days are over.

I second that!

It is also obvious that they are both badly off centered. I measured them both too and they are both more than 2:1. I don't know how you come up with 60/40. It is 70/30 to 75/25.