Prices coming down...
 

This may have been already rehashed over a few months ago but looking at values recently on VCP ,prices have dropped dramatically. I know there was talk of a "buyers group" but does anyone know what caused the drop off? It almost seems like around November of last year is when it went "back to normal"....

What goes up must come down particularly when the up was manipulated.

Here are a couple of good graphs from VCP. High grade Roses and Ryans and Koufaxes and Clementes and such forget which is which now.

Here's another one.

Here's the Bench rookie and that wasn't even a prime target (PSA 8).

Yaz 8.

Staubach 8.

Look at the bids at Heritage on the auction closing tonight and then tell me the sky is falling.

Prices
 

The sky is falling on high grade 50's and 60's rookie cards. Manipulation is over.

Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gerig , Cy Young, and rarer items continue to rise.

The syndicates were very busy indeed last Fall. Hmm.

Exactly.

Just for fun, let's see the chart for the green T206 Cobb.

Thanks for the charts Peter. Very informative. Looks to me like a healthy market with modest appreciation has returned after a Hunt brothers-type spike.

https://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/edu...hunt_bros.html

Unfortunately some Ruths (e121, Goudeys, a few other more obscure issues), T206 classics (i,e,m Wajo portrait, Cobb portraits), and others were also manipulation targets, with varying degrees of success. The occasional mercenary *@#$ who tries to use sportscards to make some fast money isn't picky about the side of WWII on which he plays his games.

One additional observation is that while the higher pop card offers a "dumper" more opportunities to sell at an inflated price, the problem with the rarer cards is that manipulation can last longer, since fewer come up for sale to eventually "outlast" the manipulation.

No kidding!

It still blows me away what people pay for the bidders premium. :eek:

$30, $40, $50g's+ seems to be the norm for these high end auctions.
https://sports.ha.com/c/search-resul...73015-interior

Very true. Lots of people still seem to have lots of disposable income. Sheesh

what about what the sellers are willing to give up potentially. However if noone wanted the cards at the prices they wanted in a direct deal they have no other choice really if they want to sell the card. Easy to say on a 100k card with BP why did the seller give up 5-20k but if he couldnt sell the card for 80-85k lets say, in the private market.what else he he supposed to do...

But some of the high grade rookies are remaining fairly high, just not to the extremes with the fraudulent manipulation we saw.

can someone explain the "manipulation" that occurred to me? thx

It will never just go away. Think of gas when it was 4$ a gallon, then I heard a few muttons heads talking last year "hey gas is unda two bucks", that seemed like a steal!

You can add Mantle to your list above, as continuing to rise...check out Heritage.

Long story, subject to 1000s of posts here. If I had to summarize it a long run-on poorly crafted sentence I would say that there were a stunning explosion in the "value" of some post war cards (mostly 50s and 60s rookie cards) in a brief few month period of time where after the fact there appeared to be some pretty good evidence that some (many?) of these record breaking transactions were likely sham transactions that were never actually completed, but merely designed to document "sales" in Vintage card Prices and elsewhere in order to run up the prices of these cards to inflated levels so others could then sell into that frenzy to make some serious money.

Just because some cards that were previously undervalued (like some of the ones you mention) went up in value, I don't think they were necessarily manipulated. There is a genuine high demand on all Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig cards. I think the high grade 50's and 60's rookies were the real targets here. If you find any Ruth, Gehrig, or Cobb's that have gone down in value, let me know so I can buy them. I think it is possible that when we saw the 50's cards getting manipulated, we bought pre-war at a premium for fear that they would explode next. Doesn't mean that they were manipulated.

Orlando, the manipulators will try and play their game with cards that collectors generally perceive as undervalued; that is what allows the hustle to succeed, because it is very hard for anyone on the "outside" to parse manipulation from overdue appreciation for such cards. No question and I agree that there is some genuine appreciation out there, alongside the other kind. I also agree that there was some appreciation in value on some cards that were bought thinking they could explode next, so get'em now; that is a great point, and it makes those premiums paid "fruit of the poisonous tree," to some extent.

As to your question, yes, I can point one out for you to buy: the e121 Ruth in PSA 3 grade. Per VCP, the card was a 5k to 7k card— then out of nowhere it hits 22.8k. As to the cause for one anomalous sale of any card, could be any one or more of a number of factors, many legitimate, some not— from pent up demand, to the perfect storm of buyers, to a fake sale or manipulation attempt.

There have been three successive sales since in the same grade, and each has declined, from 16.4k, to 14.7k, to 12.7k.

The good news I would imagine is that most of us collect for love of the sport and love of cards, and in terms of daily happiness in life those things far outshine the Sturm und Drang that comes when the focus shifts to money.

You got me. As I was typing, the e121 Ruth came to mind as the one example. I agree on that one. I would argue that it is still higher now than it was before though. Sometimes the manipulation makes us realize just how awesome and undervalued a card is and the value still evens out higher than it was before. We finally pull the trigger on a card we always wanted after realizing it almost flew out of our wheelhouse.

Just have to chime in and say those graphs on VCP are very nice....

E121 Ruth
 

While I agree, generally, with your analysis of the recent E121 Ruth pricing, I would add that the notion of "buying the card, not the holder", is perhaps even more important when looking at lower graded cards. Based upon VCP images, it looks like the card that sold for 12.7k has some paper loss front/center of the card (overgraded?). If anyone has for sale or knows of a nicely centered, PSA 3 - E121 Ruth (with no paper loss) for 12.7k, please let me know!

I'll add that I recently purchased an SGC 3 - E121 Ruth, with good eye appeal (in my opinion), and paid in between the low and high figures mentioned. With that said, I am a collector, and not a flipper, with no intentions of selling the card. Short term, if I did want to sell it, I'm not sure that I could get back what I paid for it.

Regards,

Andrew

Anyone selling a decent looking E121 Ruth in PSA or SGC 3 for $12K, please PM me. I'm looking for one also.

They are a great feature.

Ok so the "fraudulent manipulation" occurred.....did we figure out why it stopped so suddenly? If this has been discussed on here before, just point me to the thread, no need to rehash it...

yikes....super

i actually thought it might be this:


Lets say someone(S) has some PSA9-10 , 50s/60s ( Clemente, Koufax for instance)

They see some PSA 8s come up for auction, and them and someone else, considerably over pay ( Example, what would maybe go for 4000, they pay 10,000)....now that then shoots up the value of their PSA9/10 that the subsequently put on the market....make a profit, then hurry up and turn around and sell their PSA8 they just bought at 10k, for at least what they paid.....

Cool to see the charts. I don't think we will ever know what actually happened but my favorite theory based off of the charts/activity/the way my brain works because of my profession is that someone (and maybe a couple of his/her buddies) with some cash to launder got hip to the sports card game.

Dirty money in. Clean money out with no real concern for loss. No regulation whatsoever. Pretty smart timing given the massive amount of auctions in the spring and national in the summer. Most liquid marketplace of the year.

Like I said who knows but that's what has always stuck in my head.

I've heard from a reliable source that what you described was the impetus for some of the shenanigans.

No doubt a bunch of side agreements exist between the "players."

There's an sgc 3.5 for 21.5, plus my 10% ;)

Speaking of down, I can't remember the last time I saw a 52 Topps Mantle graded as a 2 sell for less than $9k legitimately.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-S...p2047675.l2557

A mere 7 years ago, I was underbidder on a PSA 2 for $4500. Not a lifetime ago. It just seems like they have been high for awhile. The run up is recent.

Nice card but it does have a pretty big crease in his head....sort of generous 2 imo......I would get a 1.5 if I submitted it :)....

Leon, I was about to say same, but didn't want to offend the winner of that card...it's also pretty off center. Actually, price seems about right.

also remember some people remark how certain cards were getting '4' money for a '2' but we all know there are many candidates of '2's that with a little bit of polish can be 5s etc.... so to me theres a difference of a card being bought as a '2' to be put on display...or a '2' to just be polished and flipped..

It seems like some people are concerned about this but shouldn't we be happy prices are going down?

I think some folks are more concerned at this point with proving they were right all along or in seeing perceived evildoers take it on the chin. Or both.

well super...it took me about 20 seconds to think of that scheme....imagine what could be done with time....:confused:

Thanks, but I'm looking to pick up those beautiful copies where the price is dropping like a rock, and $21.5K for a 3.5 doesn't seem like a firesale to me. :)

(In fairness to the seller of that card, it's a really nice card with the Babe not in quotes, which is the rarer variety. A 5 went for $43K over the weekend in Heritage.)

I see prices climbing ^^^^^ on the old school stuff.
Did ya see the 1916-20 Big Head W-UNC Babe Ruth on Probstein?
Wow. Didn't know only 3 graded by PSA. I could of swore a board member had one here.
Wonder if its this other guy on Ebay selling his?
(PROBSTEIN'S)
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1916-20-W-UN...vip=true&rt=nc, .
(EBAY SELLER)
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1-of-3-Scarc...3D371868324127

WOW! That's a nice example...of a rare strip of a cartoon ruth that looks nothing like him!

Person who drew that apparently had no idea who Babe Ruth was. Scary bad. I have zero artistic skill and could do a lot better.

maybe it's Rube Marquard...

Hey, that's one of my favorite Ruth cards! Can't you see the resemblance? ;)

haw haw!!!!

It is valuable, in my opinion, because it is probably the only Red Sox era Ruth card that most collectors can afford. The Cobb Big Head, for example, isn't very expensive or coveted. I will never understand what makes one rare card worth more than another. My Orange Border Cobb just sold on pwcc for $730. There are like 9 known specimens! It is an early Cobb, it isn't a cartoon, and it is Ty freaking Cobb!!! Most guys spit on all strip cards, but will drop 6k on this Big Head.
And yes, there is a board member who owns one of these Ruth Big Heads. It isn't me, but he is a friend of mine, and it will be available for sale soon. It is nicer than the one that sold.

no message

How was that a fake sale?

It's a 2.5, and in a Beckett slab, with 25 minutes left, and slightly over $9,000.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/292031533167...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

It's hard to tell, with 100% certainty, due to the many conditions of this card we see, if they are truly coming down, or down much at all, imo. (Of course I am not talking about summer prices)

I think this 2.5 was an outlier because of the creasing in the middle of it. It was a bit of a generous 2.5, imo.,
Mine sold 3-4 weeks ago for almost double that but it was in a PSA holder too. Beckett hasn't done a good job on marketing their vintage grading. It's too bad as they have at least one of the best graders in the hobby.

'but it was in a PSA holder' thats key information, plus yours was centered great and you got 19k

Look at this sharpe, well-centered beauty. Went for a song on PWCC today. This is an example of a card that was manipulated and has come back down to earth.

Yeah, put that one in the file misnamed "I don't know why anyone would consign with any company other than PWCC . . .they always get the best prices."

I think other sellers do OK as well. While I have used PWCC in the past, they are basically doing the exact same thing that I can do. Scan a card, write a description and throw it up on Ebay. My consignments with them haven't noticed any astronomical pricing jumps that others have experienced. So I'll just keep doing it myself, until there comes a time that I can get charged a lower commission than doing it myself (and the way Ebay is going, that will probably be in the not too distant future).

Seems to me that its much more difficulty to manipulate the prices of pre-war cards (especially very old one like T206 or Allen/Ginters) than post-war, based purely on scarcity; I am not talking bid shilling, that can happen on any auction.

According to the PSA registry, there are 188 (with half grades and qualifiers) PSA 8, 1955 Clementes. Contrast that to the T206 Red Cobb, which has only 24 examples at an 8. There are over 8 times as many Clemente 8's than Red Cobb 8's. It follows that there is less opportunity and motivation to manipulate the Red Cobb than the Clemente, bc there are fewer examples use for manipulation and fewer examples to sell and reap a windfall from.

I am not saying the value of old cards cannot be manipulated. But it seems to me their scarcity alone creates one safe guard against manipulation and may explain why these older cards seem to be retaining their value when all the stud 1950's rookies have come down so much in price.

Wouldn't it be much easier? You have a T206 red Cobb and you manipulate the market and then profit. With a 1955 Clemente your plan might be ruined if other cards are sold during your manipulation or if other cards come out for sale the same time. The older cards are just fewer in quantity so they might not have them in hand to profit from manipulation.

That's exactly my point! There 188 PSA 8 Clementes, making it much more likely that one person (or a group of people) has a bunch of 8's to profit from once a single 9 (or a few 8's) go for crazy prices. Inversely, with only 24 Red Cobb 8's out there, the odds are much less than someone has enough 8's or 7's, etc. to make it worth the while to attempt to manipulate. Plus, the sale of a single high-grade Cobb at normal prices during this process can much more easily derail a manipulation, than a series of repeated, rapid sales of a 1950 HOFer all at huge prices thus establishing an apparent value. I am not saying it cant be done (and isn't done) with the older/scarcer cards, I am just saying it seems much harder and much less opportunistic than a 1950's card, which has so many more high grade examples.

And Clemente vs Red Cobb is a gratuitous example in that Clemente is a relatively tough/rarer card as far as 19050's rookies go and the Red Cobb is likely the most commonly graded T206. Juxtapose this against other 19050's rookies that are believed to be manipulated -- over 320 PSA 8 Koufax, almost 500 PSA 8 Roses, and over 1000 PSA 8 Nolan Ryan RCs -- against a more rare T206 like the Green Cobb with only 10 PSA 8's, or Cy Young Portrait with only 14 PSA 8's (and very few 9's, if any, of either).

Perhaps its all in which cards you are watching.

3 cards I watched recently thru PWCC are as follows:

1970 Ryan PSA 8 - PWCC just ended at $483. The last 3 non-PWCC's went for $307., $315., and $320. respectively.

1966 Aaron PSA 8 - PWCC just ended at $798. The last 3 non-PWCC's went for $483., $499., and $499. respectively.

1962 Mays PSA 7 - PWCC just ended at $ 814. The last 2 non-PWCC's went for $350., and $305. respectively.

Most of the time, not always, PWCC gets higher prices. (for what I watch and am interested in). If I were to sell similar stuff, I would think sending to PWCC for sale would be a smart move.

providing they got to those levels honestly I would agree. I consigned 4 items with PWCC this past summer, assuming they would get blockbuster prices. Needless to say I did not shill, or pump the bids in any way. All four items did OK (right about what I could've gotten) but sold for significantly less than the identical items went for in both the auctions before and after the one mine were in. Coincidence?

Touche.....don't feel bad though. Honesty IS the best policy. It may not help your pocketbook, but....err......you know what I mean!!

i would never assume blockbuster prices....expectations way too high. Would depend on the cards you consigned...very few cards are 'identical' plus centering can be even a 50% bump in price depending so who knows. Not saying there was not shilling involved in other actions but could be legit reasons as well

Little over two weeks ago PSA 8 Clemente sold for $28K. Not even a year ago it sold for $150k. Almost two years ago, sold for.....$28K. Call if whatever you want, but manipulators need fools with money. And fools with money are begging to be shilled because they don't snipe. And AH's need the fools with money to believe that their anti-sniping software with endless bidding is unrelated to the massive shilling and non-payments. Gotta love this hobby.

Just got my plane tickets to the national with my son. It will be a blast.

Would love to know who paid 150k for that Clemente last year.

I really doubt money changed hands on that one. I guess can see when that Cert number shows up again..or maybe its in a PSA 9 holder and that guy got the last laugh..

I doubt it too, but then again I know of a lot of purchases that really happened that I have to shake my head at. People who fell for the manipulation, didn't listen, and panicked, apparently.

That card was off centered and wouldn't grade 8 today. Clemente RC is very hard to find to find centered, so you can't compare 8oc or off centered 8s to those that are well centered, which have brought as much as 45k this year. There is little doubt that the 150k or others that sold high last year never were paid for.

A PSA 2 t206 Wagner sold for 777k last year and 600k this year. Are prices on Wagners crashing or was the first in better condition that the second? All cards that receive the same grade aren't equal and no one should be surprised that when you find the worst one for the grade, that it is going to be the lowest sale.

i do agree that centering/condition of card matters more than the 'grade' Some PSA 8s are basically PSA 7.5 for the Clemente RC

Anyone that would pay that much for a card in the 50's is beyond me.

I don't have money like that to light on fire. Any idea how many of these are in the attic of a perfectly healthy 65 year old's house?

The guy that could care less if it is graded or tracked as part of a population of cards? Tens of thousands, and probably a few thousand with a condition 8.

I hope people are not planning on retiring on what they have in them, or anything else in that era. I am not sitting here thinking, "Damn, I have to have a Clemente rookie, because I have every other more important card in the hobby."

Not all of the Clemente 8s that sold for over 100K got paid for last year at the height of the market but some did and most that sold for 50K, 60K, 80K etc did get paid for as prices were being manipulated. This is true for many....,maybe most, of the rookie cards that had big run ups last year. What is true is that prices have come down and there are still many who are in complete denial about what took place last year.

So, I've got a noob question for you guys that follow the 50s RCs: Is now a good time to buy a Clemente or Aaron rookie in lower grade, or should I wait a little longer? I haven't been following the market at all lately because I wasn't going to pay the prices they were going for during the run up.

If anyone sees and t205's or babe ruth cards that have dropped in price please let me know... :D

Im not sure about any other cards buy just collecting those 2 types, i havnt seen a drop but a continued move up in price.

it's always a good time to buy low grade 50's hof'er rookie cards!

For whatever reason the high end game of RC''s, and their steep rise in value over the last few years, hasn't dribbled down to adding as much value to the lower end of the spectrum, so it seems to me.

I'm waiting for the next recession to buy high end cards. Patience is a Vertue, but it's super difficult when you love cards lol

9s and 10s have always had their own pricing structure and never really impacted the 1 to 8 pricing, in general. These always seemed to be two separate markets from my vantage point. It was not until the artificial market from last year that the 1 to 8 grades moved up in value together with the higher grades, which have now adjusted.

The lower grades are more plentiful so I could see how pricing would not hold on those cards as you go down in grade.