Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards
 

I tend to detach myself from reading and posting as I believe the message boards offer the hobby a forum for discussing issues openly without the influence of businesses like ours. I’m writing this post to share my thoughts on how the hobby is changing due to an influx of buyers using sportscards as an investment, and trading them like commodities. This is in part a follow up to a post on the Net54 Baseball message board here about the ethics of “market pushing”. The purpose of this post is to share my opinion on the root causes of this phenomenon; and why this may be uncomfortable, is perhaps a sign of a maturing industry.

Those of us who have been in the hobby for longer than 10 years are surely seeing the recent market trends and simply shaking our heads. Clearly the world has lost its mind and we are undoubtedly headed towards the biggest bubble bursting event in the history of collectibles. Maybe… or maybe not. Here’s at least one argument for why what’s happening is both justified and has even been predicted.

In general, the “brand” of sportscard collecting is maturing. We’ve seen this trend trickle forward over the last five years especially for the top 1% of cards. Clemente RC PSA 8s traded readily in the $8000 range five years ago, then they went to $15,000 three years ago…. then $30,000 last year… and now $100,000 seems to be the new benchmark. How is this possible? A 1000% return on investment in five years?

For the overwhelming majority of the industry, the “hobby” element of card collecting remains strong and vibrant and seems destined to stay that way. However, the top 1% (especially top 0.1%) of vintage cards are re-branding themselves away from pure collectibles to instead take firm root in the world of commodities. Just like pork bellies, bonds, and orange juice concentrate.

Within this new “commodity” element, the only two variables that matter are supply and demand; that’s it. And there’s the catch… supply. Sportscards are some of the rarest commodities in the world where even the highest population high-profile cards (i.e. Jordan RC PSA 10s, Clemente RC PSA 8s, etc) are rarely seen on the market at any one time in quantities higher than 2 or 3. Sure the populations of these cards may be 100 or more, but who cares? Any highly-prized commodity with population in the hundreds or less is absurdly low; perhaps to the point of creating a sheer frenzy when these investments surface on the open market. And that’s what we are seeing.

It is important to note that when it comes to high-value collectibles, sportscards are not a trailblazer. In particular, coins and fine art are far beyond the current market of sportscards, even in light of the recent trends. Compared to these other industries, sportscards have a long (long) way to grow before competing for market cap alongside these other collectible based commoditized markets.

Let’s also take a moment to see the potential and speak positively for a moment; sportscards are a heck of a lot more fun to most people and certainly appeal to more investors than most other portfolio diversifications. What’s more fun to your average ‘guy’ investor… a fancy painting, some rare 5-cent nickel, or a Roberto Clemente Rookie card? Assuming the three options had equal investment potential, which would you most enjoy owning? I know what I’d say and I know a few other folks who feel similarly :)

One point of pessimism that I feel warrants discussion is the claim that “this must be a bubble because there’s only a handful of people responsible for most of the recent price increase”. In other words, this trend must be fragile indeed if only a few people are responsible for the change and what happens if one of them runs out of money or leaves the hobby? What if the market is flooded by the recent sales history and these few individuals can’t keep up? These are all fair and reasonable fears to harbor and I don’t have all the answers; to a large degree I am riding the waves with everyone else, trying desperately to keep some view of the horizon (and it’s been tough of late).

Let’s get a couple things straight:

1) Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.

2) Should even a few of these 10-30 people vacate their position and nobody replaces them then this could possible turn into a bubble bursting event for certain cards. Supply and demand rules supreme and if supply goes up too high or demand goes down too low, the market will lower. Just a fact.

The above statements are both true; no reason to hide from it or run for the hills. In light of these truths, I have never been more confident of the bright future we face in this hobby than I do today. This is not a bubble, or at least I am confident from my position that this is not a bubble. Sure, some individual cards may get pushed higher than is sustainable and need to eventually correct, but I can’t help but view the above comments from a glass-half-full perspective… the fact that only 10-30 people can change a market is incredible! What happens when the 10-30 investors becomes 20-40? What happens when it gets to be 100-200?

Considering the recent unprecedented ROI with sportscards and also considering the love of sports and the inherent wealth investors are ready and willing to invest towards collectibles, it seems awkward indeed to argue that demand for the top 1% is going anywhere but up. As the largest auction house in the country for sportscards, we are already seeing a new generation of investors entering the hobby and this trend is on an upward track. Sure, supply may run in spurts as some more nervous collectors may choose to fire-sale in light of recent trends, but these mini-liquidations will soon dry up and the sturdier breed will be happy to continue betting on the market. I suppose it’s possible that greater supply could also come from new cards being graded, but this too is unlikely to add any meaningful % to the current population. I for one will be shocked if the population of 1952 Mantle PSA 8s rise by more than 10% in the next five years (same for PSA 8 Clemente rookies). Yep, I for one feel the “well is dry” and what little water we have is all we’ll ever have. Just my two cents but in light of the harsh supply/demand principals considered, I feel the 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 8 may be the most undervalued card in the entire hobby. As a pure commodity it might someday be considered “priceless” to some investors.

Brent Huigens
PWCC Auctions, LLC
brent@pwccauctions.com

When the well is dry, they will be turning to other wells. It's a process with collectors/investors as they will look for even more rare cards to buy and instead of buying an 8 they will buy a 5 of a card that has less than ten known or it's the highest grade for that issue.

I think chances are very good that if one of the collectors/investors gets out of the hobby, that there will be two or three ore people to replace them. There are 7000 people dying each day in America and 11,000 are being born. We are adding 4000 people a day to our Country and that's not counting people coming here to live from other Countries. So, chances are really good we will continue too see growth in the hobby.

PWCC has done a great job in keeping the auction format alive on EBay which we all miss from a decade ago. Leon, Bill, and Elliot have done a great job running the board (at different times) for almost 20 years. This provides education for all collectors young and old, which is key for the growth!

All I know is that if this is not a "bubble", then I am done. I'm in my early 50s, and simply can not compete monetarily with these "investors". Heck, with the prices I'm seeing, I can't even hope to obtain a PSA 5 Clemente RC, or a PSA 7 Reggie Jackson :mad:

The hobby I've known for 40+ years is history :mad:


Steve

I am like Steve D. I can't afford to play. But, I can still afford most cards in Vg or Vg-Ex. I can deal with that.

I'd agree with nearly everything Brent has written except for the above. Being involved in multiple hobbies all of them for a good deal more than 10 years, I'd say that demand is the primary and nearly only driver in hobbies.

What's considered "rare" varies from one hobby to the next, and in general even the things that would be rare in any hobby also need a couple other elements to create demand. Popularity of the subject or object is of course almost a necessity, as is a good story that either explains the rarity or Adds to the interest in the item in some way.

That tends to be true in any hobby, cards for sure, stamps as well. perhaps less so in coins and I can't quite get a handle on it for art since each piece is unique unless you collect prints.

I stopped counting the number of things I had collected that were more rare than the top tier items in the various hobbies. After decades of collecting needless to say it's become a fairly large number.
Wagner? maybe 60 plus a few known. There are lots of cards that are less common than that.
The upside down airplane stamp (Scott C3a ) 100 issued. There are probably more US stamps that are less common as there are C3as
But none are airmail stamps which is a popular area, and none have the same sort of great story behind them. (The CIA invert is less common, and has a great story, but about 60 years less time to become legendary)

The larger point is that sportscards is unique in some respects compared to other hobbies. With the very rarest coins and stamps (And bicycles and whatever) There is no lower grade population for prices to trickle down to. So whatever a 1913 liberty nickel sells for really only applies to that coin and the other 4 known. The coin market has embraced condition rarities for more common coins but as far as I can see, there's been little effect on the prices of lower condition examples.

With cards it seems to be sorting itself out. As the 10s and 9s become too much for most of us, the number of people willing to settle for an 8 rises, and so does the demand and price.
In the same way, one of the "special" cards being in a set boosts the whole set. T206s are generally pretty common, and benefit from the popularity of the Wagner. The same could be said for 52 Topps, 86 Fleer basketball and a few other sets. Without the special card they'd simply be another set.

All that is the sort of thing that any hobby is based on. Trust me on this, a couple of my hobbies are so obscure there are no items like the Wagner etc, and luckily for me very little monetary value. Good since I can afford a lot of cool stuff. Not so good since that same cool stuff often gets thrown out because it's "worthless" - Just like cards when I first got into them more seriously in the late 70's. People would toss out worn old cards because only the nice ones were worth anything.
Without dealers tracking the stuff down, collectors wanting it, and yes, investors of varying degrees of disposable income any hobby would be less than it is.

Steve B

.
1) Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.

You'd know best, as you are shipping them.

I can't imagine collecting can possibly be fun for anyone who thinks like this.

The up swing in prices has happened in all grades. So unless someone has a print run on all the key rookies. We don't know how many can be out in the world.

The rising prices are not only found in the card collecting hobby. So maybe it's that darn tv again. Shows like American pickers,pawn stars, antique roadshow has put collecting and flipping in the public eye like never before.

Outlets like eBay , Amazon , comc, have made it easy to buy sell and flip.we can do it all from our phones at any time of the day.

When I talk to adults my age(34)and tell them I collect cards. They all have found memory's of collecting when they were young. And ask questions about the hobbie. So that allows me to believe that others are just jumping back in.

I'm happy for the people who make a killing when selling their plastic cases that also happen that contain opinions and cards (in that order of importance).

And, I get a big grin on my face when the buyer loses a bunch of money trying to get a return on their "investment", oh wait, that doesn't actually happen, because they have a better chance of cracking and resubmitting for an even better opinion, and then THEY become the ones making a killing.

Good for them. Everybody wins.

Happy collecting,
Doug Goodman

One possible thing to do is stay ahead of the curve and buy cards that are not in play yet. When Mantle got hot, who was buying Rose? When Clemente got hot, who is buying Robinson (Jackie)? If Ruth gets hot then buy Cobb and then if Cobb is hot go to Wojo and etc... Tons of cards and everything happens in cycles.

So who do we buy now? 😎

I'm gonna say this trend keeps moving north into 70's cards

Ozzie smith
Eddie Murray
Etc

The part here that concerns me, and I hope it is not the case is that I hope these 10 to 30 people that are pushing the market are truly collector/investors, and not card dealers who are in collusion with other card dealers to basically exchange inventory among themselves while pushing the value of their entire holdings up.

Yes...a highly possible scenario.

Watch out Hobby when the next T206 Honus hits the market. Dutch tulips step aside, this is the real deal. I bet a few of the lucky holders of the "Holy Grail" are getting itchy palms just wondering how much the old boy might fetch. Lots and lots of Benjamins for one baseball card. Hmmm

As interesting as this all is academically, to an average upper middle class professional person who collects as a leisure activity (like me) what happens with five and six figure PSA-labeled RCs has as much relevance as a discussion of prices on brownstones on Park Avenue in Manhattan. I am not in the market for one, I will never be in the market for one, and I don't really care whether it sells for $10,000 or $10,000,000, because over a certain price level I have no foreseeable stake in the outcome.

If I happened to be holding one of these marquee cards right now I would certainly liquidate it and replace it with a nice looking example in a holder with a lower number. That's just common sense for a collector like me: when I can pay for a year of college tuition by selling a single card and still have enough change to buy a nice looking one for myself, that card is gone.

The sole effect this has on a commoner like me (besides just making me sad about where a hobby I enjoy is going) is to push me to get into cards I've wanted but not had any urgency to get, simply because I know that there will be more competition for these cards now that the specimens in high end slabs have been priced out of most collectors' ranges. Which is why these pasteboard treasures both are and are not commodities like gold. When the price of gold rises to dizzying heights, investors move to another commodity, but when a 1954 Aaron rises precipitously, us Aaron collectors can't just 'skip' it and not have his RC. We downshift to lower grade specimens. Over the last two years I've bought or traded into numerous lower grade specimens of cards that have made the 'investor' list, and I am interested in obtaining more of them, provided they are available at my price points.

Forget the Benjamins; Woodrow Wilsons.

The thing is, those "investors" who pay $150k for a rose rookie are going to want to flip it for $200k and soon too, eventually there is going to come a time when some of these "whales" (to use gambling parlance) are going to liquidate everything and someone , or several ones, are going to be left holding the bag as the prices become unsustainable. Sure some cards will always rise, but they tend to do it slowly, these 1000% bumps in just a few months are going to cause a landslide eventually.

How about buying cards you enjoy and WANT to collect?

that's my plan. I am out of the market for high end cards anyway so I have been focusing on Braves I can afford and HOF'ers of my childhood (late 70's and 80's) as well as some pre-war guys I really liked. It makes it sustainable and affordable while still getting nice cards.

Not to mention you can get really good deals on raw rookies these days. I got a Tony Gwynn for $12 that would probably grade 8 or above as it's perfectly centered and has no apparent flaws to the eye. Graded? I probably couldn't afford it!

That cards I "want" to collect are high dollar..

I certainly can't go out and compete with the guys paying crazy dollars right now..nor would I... Even if I could (I think)?

I would rather have a handful of really nice investment type cards than boxes of average/low value stuff.


Just my preference... Everyone should collect as they see fit.. That's the fun of it!

Wall of worry
 

As long as they are many who are concerned about this being a bubble getting ready to pop, then there is still more upside. This is called climbing the "wall of worry". We won't reach a top until most of the skeptics have given up being skeptical

Curious???
 

What's Peter Spaeth's take on Brent's post.
Peter you live on this site, I know you've read Brent's post at least half dozen times. Why are you so quiet?

Great post.

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on optimism, and die on euphoria."

Sir John Templeton

It certainly doesn't feel euphoric like the message board activity surrounding unopened did. No shortage of skeptics that's for sure.

Personally for me, we are in a SAD state of the hobby. I believe a big % of the people who have cards are truly collectors. People that love the hobby. You get a small % who want to capitalize and make money and drive the prices through the roof.

You just have to many people that are more worried about the numerical grade than just a nice looking card. I am with Adam, if I had any of "high graded" cards, I would be cashing out and finding the nicest card in 2-3 grades lower.

Somebody is going to get killed when the bubble bursts. Unlike Brent, I do believe it is a bubble. I know I won't get stuck holding the bag.

Here, here to the vg/ex card......centered with no creases. Maybe a tobacco card stain on the back.

Mark

Come on folks, get happy.
 

I assume a lot of folks here have decent collections with some truly nice stuff.

Don't worry about keeping up with the Jones'. Enjoy what you have as there is good chance it has gone up in value more recently than in the last bunch of years.

Market goes up - people get sour grapes. Market goes down - the sky is falling. Be happy with what you have. Pat yourselves on the back for squirreling away a few truly nice items.

There are still nice items to be had at reasonable prices. $125. could have just got you a B18 Blanket Walter Johnson SGC slabbed and nice looking. Or a grand could get you a 1940 Jimmie Foxx SGC 88 with near perfect centering (pop of 9). I just spent little over $600. on a PSA 5 1952 Bowman Willie Mays - very happy. Keep hunting for what you truly like - not necessarily those B.S. "rookie" cards.

Agreed. There is nobody on this planet that can convince me that these recent and ridiculous prices on high profile rookies is where the market truly is, and that the prices are spot on. Something is going on, big time. If not, where have they been in the last 25 years? We are seeing prices that don't even make sense to people that have been in the hobby for 25 years plus...

I guess, but you (as a net54 community) cant criticize the craziness but when sell your own cards cite the prior sales to support your high price...you cant have it both ways..... i talking generally not directly the the person quoted.

If you listen you can hear it
It's the laughter in the street
It's the motion in the music
And the fire beneath your feet
All the signs are right this time
You don't have to try so very hard
If you live in this world
You're feelin' the change of the guard

All the cowboys and your neighbors
Can you swallow up your pride
Take your guns off it you're willin'
And you know we're on your side
If you want to get through the years
It's high time you played your card
If you live in this world
You're feelin' the change of the guard

You know how I found net54 ? I would google things about cards. I noticed that
I could find some answers here. So after a while decided to sign up.

so if someone was new to the hobby wouldn't they Google things about it?
So where are they ? They must be a few that are members on net54 .
If they wanted more info and to see pics of examples they would find it here.

Where are these "investors" or "new collectors "?chime in if you fit the
In to one of those.

This most recent activity has me looking to stay in front of the herd. If this is a real demand, we'll see Football, Basketball, and (gulp..) Hockey HOF's trending upwards.

I still haven't bought from these sports, but it's looking awfully compelling now, and who wouldn't want to own a Jerry West or Walter Payton Rookie card.

I'm betting there is 3-5 players

I know that David Hall (president of Collector's Universe, parent company of PSA) has been working on a master set of T206 and driving up prices of many of the tougher backs in that set, but does anybody know if he has been buying any of the high-end postwar stuff being discussed in this thread? He apparently has very deep pockets.

Define player

+1 - couldn't have said it any better myself.

I'm more of a minnow than a piranha, and I can't find my lighter right now, but I think my experience is relevant here.

Brent, you bring up the examples of coins and fine art. I was active in the rare coin market for about 10 years, from the late 1970s to the late 80s, mostly on the dealer side, so I had a front-row seat for the commodification of coins--both rare and not-so-rare. There were a number of factors behind the change in the marketplace:

• Inflation and interest rates were relatively high, so cash investments were getting hammered. This led to a flight to value, especially precious metals.
• For a short period individuals were allowed to put non-cash items into their IRAs, increasing the demand.
• Several very high-profile collections came on the market that caught the public's attention (Garrett, Eliasberg, Jerry Buss, etc.).

Back in the boom days of the coin market, early- to mid-80s, the poster child for all the craziness was proof 3-cent nickels (look it up). Original mintage numbers for each date are fairly high (500 to a few thousand each year), so these are not what you'd call rare, or even particularly scarce. Within about 6 months the active trading price of these coins went from around $2,500 up to $8,000 or more. I had several of these pass through my hands. Not a one went to a long-time collector. Some went from hand to hand, while others went to people looking to protect their money. Current value, 30 years on? A nice clean MS-63 1878 proof (a proof-only date) sold not that long ago for a bit under $2,000.

Yes, this is an isolated example. It was part of a years-long trend, though, that brought many people into the market for the first time. This influx can be a good thing, but if those new people are the "Ooh! Shiny!" folk, then they're not going to last long or provide long-term price support. Some of them will get hooked by the allure of the product and stay around, but soon enough most will move on to the next thing. And yes, you do still see record prices set. But that's for the rarest of the rare, and Mantles don't qualify there. As a whole, the high end coin market turned out to be a lousy investment.

Where I see the similarity is that, at the time, even the sophisticated coin dealers completely bought into the idea that the trend would continue. For lots of reasons that's natural; if you don't believe in your product or the market, maybe you should be doing something else. I'm not saying that baseball cards are tulip bulbs, but I believe, based on what I've seen, that at some point the music will stop.

I guess I really don't understand the "I feel sad for the hobby" thread running through so much of this. Collect what you want and be happy. If there are people pushing prices to ridiculous levels steer clear and be happy. The fact that record numbers of people are paying attention to collecting vintage cards is a good thing for all of us. No doubt some of you would rather be in a dark basement trading cards with some kind of secret handshake society but those days are gone. I'm not trying to be an ass, but so much of this gloom and doom is starting to seem like sour grapes that people are being priced out of some cards. Deal with it and if others lose their shirt well that's that. I can't afford to live in a penthouse apartment on 5th Avenue in NYC for $50 million dollars, but that doesn't mean that the person who buys it is stark raving crazy. If the very top end of the hobby is crazy we are in good company with art works, collector cards, real estate, and plenty of other things.

As others have noted, Brent has better visibility into the drivers of the hobby than probably anyone else, so his insights are appreciated.

As a collector and hobby enthusiast for the past 40 years (yikes), I've seen the evolution of the hobby to an industry. Back in 1984, the Clemente Rookie could be had for under $100 in mint condition. So what changed? Why would that card command over $475,000 in 2016?

It was gradual at first, but the introduction of price guides, the internet, Ebay, auction houses and PSA were significant drivers. However, in my humble opinion, what has turbo-charged everything in recent years has been the PSA Registry and Population Report.

The Registry and Population Report changed the game: it taps into the EGO, which is a powerful driver for many. Sportscards have, more than ever, become a serious investment vehicle for many well-heeled individuals. Those who want to have the best, be it as a collector or investor will drive prices higher and higher. Cards are dis-proportionally higher in price at PSA10 vs PSA9 because of this dynamic. What boggles the mind though, are some of the prices commanded for recently issued cards (1986 and newer). To me, this area of the market would seem to be more vulnerable to correction. The older stuff will always be gold.

I expect that if/when "big fish" leave the market, others will readily step in to take their place. For those who want to collect on a budget, you can still do it although at lower grades.

There may be bumps along the way and economic downturns, but I see no end to the long-term trend higher. We probably will look back at this time and wonder why we didn't buy more of what we love at those "low, low prices of 2016."

Maybe I am wrong, however all of this makes me chuckle. Everybody is trying to solve some master puzzle if this is a bubble or not. Who cares? To me this is simple...

I say people should buy cards and have fun with what you are doing and if you are not comfortable with the price then don't buy it.

Carry on...

Steve, collectors can be very passionate about their interests. That being the case, they may take it personally when they feel like their interests are being unduly manipulated.

I've seen no data to suggest that record numbers of people are collecting vintage cards. Just because prices are rising exponentially in a certain segment doesn't mean they became more popular. Clearly the hobby/industry is below the level it was during the boom of the early 1990s in terms of popularity.

But you're right, some of it is sour grapes.

Here is My opinion of what is going on:

1. Record low interest rates pushing people toward risk assets.
2. Money laundering
3. Rampant speculation
4. People buying on emotion


Stuff like this always ends well. Be careful. Please note I do not blame pwcc for any of this, they are simply a successful business in the midst of this.

Seems to me that 99% of the cards people talk about here are completely removed from the supposed bubble. I venture out to card shows once in a while and there's no one there selling any 52 Mantles. More likely a 85 Ray Knight or Ron Darling. While the activity at the very top of the market looks like cold investing and not any kind of collecting, I'm not sure why it distresses people so much. If you live in Iowa and want to buy a nice house, do you really care what's going on in New York City or Chicago real estate prices? If its manipulation, so be it. Have you heard about the stock market? Not sure but I suspect there are some people manipulating the prices there to.

Prices
 

As usual I am lost. I am still trying to understand bitcoins.

It distresses people, it makes them sad. Personally,I am sick of the headlines over prices. It isn't fun to have your pastime commoditized. If I go play a round of golf I don't want to hear how valuable the land under the green is. Reality bites; doesn't need to intrude into baseball cards. Plus when the news is all about money in cards a certain element many of us have in common gets ideas about what "your" cards could do for "us" if they were sold off.

unlike real estate though, the price of a PSA 9 that escalates by 1000% in 6 months DOES impact those collectors just trying to grab a psa 6 or 7 for their collections. People think "well if a psa 9 is now worth $100k, (versus the $10k it was 6 months ago) shouldn't my 6 be worth $2500 instead of $250? and all of a sudden you have a market that becomes falsely inflated and the avg collectors who save up to buy their "one big card" miss out.

Despite claims
 

Despite claims there has been nowhere near the same growth in price of low grade rose, Ryan, Stargell, Yaz, Brett and other rookies. If any increase has occurred in low end it is minuscule. 1952 mantle has but that seemed to be taking off before this other price increase started and I'm not sure the two are connected.

Nick,
Honestly I haven't seen that very often.
I was just thinking this week that I've seen an awful lot of auctions getting weak prices for what look to me like really nice cards. Goudeys, Play Balls, 55 Topps, etc. There are also many items in some of these auctions that don't even draw a bid. I don't want to single anyone out, but was just breezing through an auction closing in the coming days and was amazed at the $7 and $9 bids for some nice cards. I realize those may increase at the end, but I think you could just as easily make the opposite argument: the inflation in a small subset of cards has badly weakened the market for cards that are slightly off center or mid grade. Do I have empirical support for this? No. But it seems that way to me. Take out the Mantles, Ruths, Clementes, rose Rookie cards, and some others and things look very different.

Well said Brady!!

change of pace from: prices, shilling, bubbles, theories....
 

Yet.

I would not expect the same rate of growth, but historically speaking when a marquee card in top # slab goes up dramatically, collectors do tend to downshift. I mean as a Hank Aaron collector I cannot afford a near mint RC but I definitely can afford a lower grade one, and I cannot just 'skip' the RC for my collection. There has been growth, though. A vg Aaron RC averaged around $525 two years ago. The most recent one closed on eBay for $760 and that was down a bit from the recent averages of about $900. A vg Clemente RC was a $600 card two years ago; now it runs around $800 on average and a recent one closed at $1295.

That makes sense in context: is an 8 really worth 20x a 6? Is it worth 100x a 4? Not to everyone. If I can get a card with similar eye appeal but a technical flaw like a corner ding for a tiny % of the cost, maybe that is where I go? And if I go there, doesn't it stand to reason that other collectors will do the same and drive up prices on those replacement items?

One thing I'd be interested in seeing is how the relative prices of these cards in various grades vary over time. When a top grade card skyrockets does the multiple it now fetches over the next grades down tend to narrow back down to typical (whether due to price drops at the top or price rises at the bottom) or does the spread remain? What is the historical price differential between the various grades? The answer to that question might suggest where to invest next, in a HOF RC that hasn't grown faster relative to lower grade specimens. I wish I had the time and the mathematical chops to resolve that.

Adam
 

You pointed out two cards I purposely did not mention. I feel both like mantle started their rise prior to this recent boom and are definetly harder in good eye appeal lower grades than those I mentioned. I am honestly not sure those and mantle are solely being driven by these 30 buyers. Maybe but these are at least more defensible in their increases than the current levels on rose and Ryan in particular. I have a friend who sells my stuff for me on eBay, a big name dealer everyone knows, we have sold out of all the hot cards in higher grades but both of us still have several of these listed in lower grades and have sold feW to none over the last 4 month boom where we literally were cleaned out of high end examples. So I honestly don't think it's happened to the extent one would think. If the high end pricing surge continues you maybe right and the prices at the lower end may indeed rise but remember these prices will bring more submissions of these cards and most will be at the lower end increasing supply and maybe not increasing price. You also need to take into account who is buying what sometimes a high price on a mid lower end card is it because a doctor or two have seen it and think they can fix or minimize its flaws or is it being driven by collectors?

I’m wondering about two related things: 1) Are members of the group who are buying cards at record prices also selling them? Is there collusion within the group to guarantee certain cards sell at a predetermined level? Using an eBay search, its easy to see recent 1958 Jim Brown PSA 8 rookie sales:

04-24: 4401
05-08: 2199
06-14: 6499
06-23: 17,500

It could be that despite 3 sales within 2 months, there were bidders who thought the 06-23 card was so unlikely to come up again, that 17.5K was a good price. How many of us think that is smart/rational behavior though? Call it rationality or common sense or whatever, but I can’t help but think the 17.5K price tag may have some other purpose. What the end game is, I have some thoughts, but I’m not sure.

Yes, buying 7 and 8's T206s..... (Edit)My bad, this is obviously pre-war, sorry....

I've been looking for a 1951 Bowman Willie Mays card for several years, for my 500 home run club set, preferably a PSA 5 to match my Mantle '51 Bowman. 2 years ago, you could get a PSA 5 Mays for around $1,500. Now, you can't get a PSA 3 for that. I've been the underbidder several times on Mays RCs, but always got outbid.

Same thing with Ernie Banks' '54 Topps. I've wanted a PSA 6 to match my Aaron RC. Now, it's tough to find a PSA 4 Banks for what a 6 went for 2 years ago.

Reggie Jackson: Ditto. Can't find a 7 for what an 8 was going for 2 years ago.

Steve

Great reference! I wonder how may got it?

Chase would be more realistic, and I'd guess you know why, but does anyone else?

Steve B

Yes...we've all seen the big bills.

I've never seen the two big ones in person, but did often win a few beers using them as bar trivia questions. The top one isn't believed to have circulated publicly but was used for transferring largish sums between banks.

Steve B

The $100k Wilson bill is illegal to own as it was only used between banks. It has an orange back as it is a Gold Certificate. The $10k Chase bill is the largest bill one can legally own. It was issued as both a Federal Reserve note and a Gold Certificate. Another hobby of mine. :rolleyes:

I have been seeing this with autographs on eBay. I have been outbid by the same 2 or 3 dealers on a number of items only to see them relisted a few weeks or months later for 2x the price. They are obviously trying to hook a novice into overpaying for the item to drive up the overall value. This business model makes me sick to my stomach. Seems like a used car salesman approach.

That was great. Then the kid took the card from Mint 9 to a fair 2 in one fell swoop :) but I don't think he cared.

edited to add, guess I didn't see the thread concerning this... :confused:

+1

One good thing that has come from all this ,IMO, is that raw cards seem to have dropped a fair bit. I got a raw Waddell T206 for $35 that probably grades as a PSA1. I got a raw Bonds Tiffany rookie for $15, raw 68 Yaz in damn near mint condition for $8 and am about to add a very rare and desirable raw pre-war card for peanuts as well. It seems that the rush to nab high PSA graded cards has left a lot of nice stuff that is ungraded going for really low prices.

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day! :D

deleted

Time to sell the collection and stock up on guns, ammo, bottled water, and canned food?

Don't forget batteries, a flashlight, candles and matches ;)

Steve

There is no disputing that the current debt globally is unsustainable. You will continue to see the treasury yields fall to reduce the interest expense to prolong the inevitable which is indeed a serious financial issue as you suggest. That said it isn't stopping people from buying luxury real estate, 170 million dollar pieces of art, 52 million dollar cars and so on.

If indeed we see an event of epic proportion that is as serious as you believe is coming, the best investment one could make today is guns, ammunition and silver coins. If all paper money becomes worthless than so to will trading cards but who cares. Your F'ed regardless so why not enjoy them while you can.

The super rich will be safe in an environment like the one you describe as they will buy large plots of land before paper money has no value and be self sufficient should they need to be. Anyone buying a $500,000 baseball card has to be liquid for at least 10 million or more I would think and perhaps even higher. They will find a way to survive don't you worry. In the mean time they can whip out their rare cards and be reminded of how awesome they are and also be reminded that they can afford a piece of cardboard that very few can.

37
 

Wish I was younger. I am going to miss all that stuff

Tidal, not tital.

Have a nice day yourself, Sir!:)

if we mention your promo can we get a discount on purchases from your ebay store ;)

Thanks to Brent for posting, as from experience I attest he cares about the hobby foremost. I disagree though, and believe (using nothing but rationality) that the market has to correct at some point. Which is the most likely scenario? Something, collectible in nature, that has risen 500%-1000% in the span of a couple dozen months will continue to exponentially grow or that something collectible in nature that has risen 500%-1000% in a span of a couple dozen months will stagnate?

Common sense tells me it obviously won't continue growing at the same pace. I don't understand why the only two futures the market holds in the vast majority of collector's minds are "exponential growth" and "collapse". The two most popular phrases in the hobby are now "don't miss the train" and "don't get left holding the bag." Couldn't it, you know, just settle and correct? Sports card are hot investments right now, but I'm assuming hot investments are hot when they're cheap. I'm baffled that smart people with plenty of money (and obviously, surely, have heard of buy low - sell high) think we're just at the start of market growth. I don't know, could be wrong. Personally I don't have a dog in the hunt. If I can afford something in a 9 I buy a 9. If I can only afford a 2 my heart doesn't really break.

Happy collecting guys.

Since you are proofreading, you missed "ubsurd" as well. ;)

First off, this latest phenomenon of skyrocketing high-grade rookie cards from the '50's and '60s makes leaves me highly skeptical. I can recall the superficial manipulation of silver prices in the late 1970's by the Hunt brothers and there was another event in the mid-90's where modern rookie cards were being horded and re-sold on the early days of the internet by a group of dealers that also ended badly. Obviously, some unknown person or persons are jacking up the prices of these cards and it's not the natural progression of hobbyists at-large.

I also have a great distrust for anything associated with PSA. These ridiculously high prices will only bring more scammers out of the woodwork and will only elevate the frequency of card altering, card restoration, phony holders and flips, questionable bump-ups among many of the well-documented PSA-related scandals.

So in the final analysis, it's the label and the holder that's the commodity - not the card and that's not a good thing.

I was following this Gibson . . . A mid-grade that sold for nearly 10x VCP.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/351767229283...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

That's nuts! 2016 is the year that everyone lost their darn minds.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...ea681d2b00.png

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...e446d61d51.png

That is insane. Not even two months ago one sold for $250, centered as nicely as that one. For that kind of money, you could get an '8'!! Definitely makes all the 'conspiracy theorists' come out.

In April (not even 3 months ago), four PSA 8 Gibson RCs sold on ebay (all BINs), for $2,000 or less!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...cAAOSwoudW-zav

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-5...MAAOSw5dNWkVFs

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BOB-GIBSON-1...cAAOSwhkRWdfUC

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...cAAOSw-W5UrUvS

Just before those four, PWCC sold a PSA 8 for $2,577:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...YAAOSwgApXAB2N

Just after the four BINs above, another PSA 8 sold for a BIN (best offer), of $2,595 or less:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-TOPPS-N...wAAOSw8aNXGtPT

The mindset of the buyers these days is utter stupidity!

Steve

Ive got a 6.5 Gibson rookie in my store below. Any takers? Lol

Maybe Gibson is the next Rose? :)