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Mantle Avalanche
Obviously, there are any number of factors in play, but I am slightly overwhelmed by the sheer number of choice '51 Bowman and '52 Topps cards of the Mick available at the moment either via an auction house, Ebay or whatever. I wonder if the trigger point for the current avalanche was the live Goldin auction at the National in July where, I think, the Topps example set a new record. And I wonder if the "8" ending tonight in the PWCC auction will reach the magic 500K level? Can I stand the excitement?
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I think there are a lot of investors in at these levels. I don't think that is bad or good, just making a statement.
Only time will tell if the prices are sustained but this 8 will be a record when it ends...It is already 15% above the one sold in the Goldin Live auction. This card is on fire..... http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-M...EAAOSw5VFWMpF8 . |
I think the card tonight will eclipse $500,000 and have no idea when the 52 and 52 tide will peak. I'm anticipating $ to start heading into the higher grade later issues with some vigor.
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The frequency of these cards coming to market should not be surprising; they are not rare. 1952 T Mantle PSA pop 1,293 [117 of which are 7 or better, unqualified]. For contrast: PSA T206 Wagner pop 33 plus 2 qualified cards. Put another way, there are three times as many slabbed PSA 7 or better Mantles than there are Wagners in any grade. And yes, I realize there are some resubs in the PSA list but the overall point remains.
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the RC is a waterfront property on the intercoastal...the 1953 ..if its waterfront its on a canal..maybe navigable ..maybe not...after that I don't really see the rest of the mantles getting that same type of attention...but maybe at the psa 8 level....basically a POP thing....
unfortunately many of my waterfront cards are just on a drainage ditches |
Is the '52 a RC?
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I've always thought the 52T rookie designation was weird. The 51 Bowman is a 10x better looking card anyway. |
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Personally I like his '51 Bowman as much as the '52 Topps. |
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but yeah when a hobby goes down the main cards keep their value and the rest goes in the tank..so that is a possibility..like i said before..even in the housing crisis years ago the waterfront properties were still going strong..people threw their money on the 'safe' stuff... houses across the street inland were getting crushed even though they were in the same neighborhood, sometimes just across the street...i have seen mantles psa 8s do well in later years..so they still doing well...but i judge a waterfront property/card a few ways: 1. could there be an exponential rise in price just due to centering (cards going for what was previously though to be 2 or 3 grades higher etc) Call it the pretty picture test..like the ty cobb psa 5.5 that sold today 2. do even bad condition cards cost more than the average person puts in their collection (mantle psa 2s in late years for example can be had for very cheap) A 1952 Topps psa 1 mantle still costs a TTON 3. There are more conditions as well but giving you a gist on what i think...i could be wrong with my whole line of thought..but just giving you what i mean by waterfront properties.. |
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Demand sometimes overwhelms supply.
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Mantle is the new T206 in board topics. :D
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That 52 Mantle is a Beauty Rob
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I started collecting
as a 7 year old in 1979. I have been hearing how overpriced this card is since that time yet it continues to increase in value. It often has these huge jumps in price throughout its history. They level off and may make a minor pull back but its always far above previous levels. Then a time period passes and we go through this process all over again.
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I'm more mystified about the PWCC 52T hammer price because with all the emphasis people seem to put on eye appeal and centering, the image has a tilt within its' borders - unless it's a scanner issue, which I doubt. (Maybe a 9-10 with a qualifier, instead?:D:D.) PSA registry thingie;)
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http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.d...p2047675.l2565 . |
What to do if no pay.
If you are PWCC and the high bidder doesn't pay for the 52 Mantle...you cant relist it right? nobody would want to consign a card like that again..
Thus, we may be seeing this card at another AH in 2016...... |
The first PSA 6100,000 52 Mantle?
I am surprised but can't say shocked that a PSA 6 is at 82,000 at Goodwin auction already. I know it is a beautiful card but has the market gone crazy? Has Mickey become the darling of every Wall Street investor? Markets make the price but can anyone say bubble.
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There are 3 1952 Mantle PSA 10's out there. Wonder what one of them would bring. 3 Million?
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52 psa 10 guess
If an 8 is going for 500,000 then a 9 would be 1.5 million, and a ten probably 3 mil or more. Some hedge fund manager yankee fan would know that a 10 is so rare that they may never get another chance. So my guess is it could top 3 million, possibly 5 million.
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Mantle 10
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1952 Mantle
Anyone have a 9 for 1.5 I can make a nice commission and still get you the 1.5. It is a minimum 2 million dollar card in a PSA 9 at the current time. I believe a 10 could hit 5 or more if offered for sale. Remember the fit Rosen through when Marshall bought his. Guess he doesn't feel it was such a stupid move anymore.
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As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event. |
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I think many folks, like myself, want one or have wanted one with much desire, but the card has taken another of its periodical "surges" you mention. When one misses the boat like this, a human being has two ways they can react (of course among others)... One choice is to work harder to try and obtain one ASAP. The other choice is to soothe oneself by saying, "The card price is gonna crash, so I'm actually happy that I can't get one right now." I am not deluding myself. The card is an icon to any baseball card collector, and even "hobby outsiders" I have met greet that card with a pure smile. I am choosing to work harder and one day get one. I think to wait ten years or even five for something I love-- when life can be nasty, brutish, and short, as the saying goes---- is folly. Especially when realizing that history, lots of history, says the card---- and undoubtedly its nicer specimens in each and every grade---- will keep rising in price. Especially when the view that prices will suddenly come down out of nowhere in ten years is likely (in my own opinion, thinking from a psychology point of view) a view that comes from a place of not having what one desires. In summation, I tip my cap to those who already own one (a double tip of the cap if the card is even partially centered!). It must give you gentlemen much pleasure to hold and look at. I will know that pleasure soon. |
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Mantle
I collect Topps, Bowman and Fleer sets so collecting Mantle has just been a necessity. I think I have all of his Bowman and Topps issues except the 61 Dice, 66 Punch Out and 68 Disc. But being a variations collector as well, that meant 2 of the 52s.
I have no idea who is right about the future, but glad I bought when I did rather than wait for the prices to come down. Don't think I would have made it. :) |
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It was the best collecting move I ever made. If I had waited for the price to drop? Well, that same PSA 3 that I missed is selling around $70k today. So good luck getting the Mantle, and once you get it I hope that you enjoy it as much as I enjoy my Plank. :) |
I think with recent prices you will start to see more pop up that people had bought purely for investment purposes. Only time will tell if the market can sustain these prices, but I can't imagine they will keep this pace up. Anyone who bought a centered 5 or better more than a year ago has to be pretty happy right now.
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not sustainable
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People ignore bubbles
Anytime a price jumps about 500% in 5 years with inflation being about 10% , it is a strange economic phenomenon. In 2010 the PSA 6 was about 18-20k. The 7 was about 35. Yes, obviously demand has increased enough to bid up the price 500%. Anytime you have such a rapid rise, it is important to ask why and is it a rationale investment. It seems we are in the classic argument made during bubbles. That is "I better buy now because in a year the price will double." Since no one can ever predict exactly when a bubble will burst it could be a PSA 7 will sell for 300k in a year, or 75k if it pops.
If investors are the ones buying and bidding up the price, then they will be the first to panic and sell if we hit hard economic times. Collectors will hold a lot longer but no one wants to take a bath. Just my two cents on the Mantle mania. |
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feeding the frenzy
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My thought is that those that are willing to pay these mad prices don't care if the economy tanks simply because most likely they are the uber rich, eg. hedge and private dudes who simply want the best of a fixed supply commodity, ie. a '52 Topps Mick and have more than enough liquid funds to do whatever feels good when a copy comes around, and my what a flood we are now witnessing. Still if we go into another recession, I suspect holders of high grade copies will just sit tight rather than take a loss by selling. They didn't become the 1% by making stupid investments.
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hope you are right
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This card often
Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.
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A Fun Debate
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I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine. |
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I am beginning to think that The Mick has become the new Honus and the hedgies and those like them, disappointed that a Honus has not been seen in the marketplace for some time, are directing their awesome monetary firepower at the '52 Topps Mantle, the 2nd prize. If that line of logic is at all correct, then watch out the next time that a Honus is offered up, which will inevitably happen. Fireworks!
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and then there's the 1951
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Regards, Larry |
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Happy collecting, Larry |
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Good posts, Larry |
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ok how about 111k for the PSA 6 and climbing
Yes, a very nice centered 6 on Goodwin. But 111k already and still time to bid. Will enjoy watching where this one nets out tonight. Will we see 150k with the premium?
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Wonder when the bubble will burst lol
Reminds me of the good old days in the real estate market 2005-2007 :D Fun to watch i will admit. Wish i had a Mantle to sell. Kind of seeing these outrageous #'s for lots of high end cards and even some mid grade ones. Enjoy |
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http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-M...3D401019500585 |
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yes it is looking bubbly!
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impressed by seller 'stuffbysil' selling 3 1952 Micks --holy cow!! and sold one in past 6 months.
a 8oc, 6, and a 4 talking big volume for what looks like a jeweler/card collector. Defintely HIGH-END stuff he has. These prices are pure madness to think a '2' is reaching 15k prices. |
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