Mantle Avalanche
 

Obviously, there are any number of factors in play, but I am slightly overwhelmed by the sheer number of choice '51 Bowman and '52 Topps cards of the Mick available at the moment either via an auction house, Ebay or whatever. I wonder if the trigger point for the current avalanche was the live Goldin auction at the National in July where, I think, the Topps example set a new record. And I wonder if the "8" ending tonight in the PWCC auction will reach the magic 500K level? Can I stand the excitement?

I think there are a lot of investors in at these levels. I don't think that is bad or good, just making a statement.
Only time will tell if the prices are sustained but this 8 will be a record when it ends...It is already 15% above the one sold in the Goldin Live auction. This card is on fire.....

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-M...EAAOSw5VFWMpF8


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I think the card tonight will eclipse $500,000 and have no idea when the 52 and 52 tide will peak. I'm anticipating $ to start heading into the higher grade later issues with some vigor.

Those cards are so plentiful even in high grade that I am not sure you will see that spillover effect, but who knows.

It seems to me that later Mantle issues in 8 or 9 have already been going up quite a bit lately. Especially centered ones.

The frequency of these cards coming to market should not be surprising; they are not rare. 1952 T Mantle PSA pop 1,293 [117 of which are 7 or better, unqualified]. For contrast: PSA T206 Wagner pop 33 plus 2 qualified cards. Put another way, there are three times as many slabbed PSA 7 or better Mantles than there are Wagners in any grade. And yes, I realize there are some resubs in the PSA list but the overall point remains.

the RC is a waterfront property on the intercoastal...the 1953 ..if its waterfront its on a canal..maybe navigable ..maybe not...after that I don't really see the rest of the mantles getting that same type of attention...but maybe at the psa 8 level....basically a POP thing....

unfortunately many of my waterfront cards are just on a drainage ditches

Is the '52 a RC?

According to SGC it is, for some reason.

I've always thought the 52T rookie designation was weird. The 51 Bowman is a 10x better looking card anyway.

Same type of attention? No. However it's Mantle and he's arguably a top 5-10 player collected. If his cards ( all years) don't do well in the future, that doesn't bode well for the hobby in general. I'm reminded often that scarcity/rarity almost always takes a backseat to popularity and they don't come much more popular that the Mick

Topps is the biggest and most prolific card company ever. The '52 Topps Mantle is iconic and his FTC (First Topps Card). These analogies remind me of the T206 Wags. Most non collectors think it's his rarest card. It's nowhere close but it is his most known and iconic hence the price. Same as the '52 Mick.

Personally I like his '51 Bowman as much as the '52 Topps.

I get the whole Topps mystique, it's just weird a lot of people think the 52T is Mantle's rookie. Interestingly though, that doesn't seem to be the case with Mays. I think you're on to something with an FTC designation though. That makes the most sense to me.

Well that settles it. :)

in theory every 1952 Topps cards is the FTC.....yeah i know about those topps 51s..but you know what im talking about

i agree with some of what you said...mantle cards do have a premium versus regular cards and its definitely about popularity which impacts scarcity or not...lots of cards are very very rare but no one wants them so theres no value there...

but yeah when a hobby goes down the main cards keep their value and the rest goes in the tank..so that is a possibility..like i said before..even in the housing crisis years ago the waterfront properties were still going strong..people threw their money on the 'safe' stuff... houses across the street inland were getting crushed even though they were in the same neighborhood, sometimes just across the street...i have seen mantles psa 8s do well in later years..so they still doing well...but i judge a waterfront property/card a few ways:

1. could there be an exponential rise in price just due to centering (cards going for what was previously though to be 2 or 3 grades higher etc) Call it the pretty picture test..like the ty cobb psa 5.5 that sold today

2. do even bad condition cards cost more than the average person puts in their collection (mantle psa 2s in late years for example can be had for very cheap) A 1952 Topps psa 1 mantle still costs a TTON

3. There are more conditions as well but giving you a gist on what i think...i could be wrong with my whole line of thought..but just giving you what i mean by waterfront properties..

It's not just weird, it's flat out wrong. A second year card is not a rookie. But SGC labels it a rookie.

You made my point. Mantle is the most valuable post war player. Put that with the biggest and by far most prolific card mfg'er and you have a perfect storm. Not a rare card but actually scarce due to it's desirability (this could be debated).

well also basically when it was real close to a rookie year you would see the FTC designation...also the legend of the 1952 Topps Mantle grows...IN Fact even the past few weeks may of added to the legend...there may be some 30 year olds following these sales and 20 years from now they are bidding 500k because of what they are experiencing now...some people buy fancy cars for their definition of 'success' some buy artwork or cards..to each their own....I just don't see those same 30 year olds bidding more than the current SMR is for 1952 Topps commons 30 years from now.....

Demand sometimes overwhelms supply.

Personally I like Mantle's '52B more than the '52T as well, maybe its only cuz I can afford it :)

Mantle is the new T206 in board topics. :D

That 52 Mantle is a Beauty Rob

I started collecting
 

as a 7 year old in 1979. I have been hearing how overpriced this card is since that time yet it continues to increase in value. It often has these huge jumps in price throughout its history. They level off and may make a minor pull back but its always far above previous levels. Then a time period passes and we go through this process all over again.

I'm more mystified about the PWCC 52T hammer price because with all the emphasis people seem to put on eye appeal and centering, the image has a tilt within its' borders - unless it's a scanner issue, which I doubt. (Maybe a 9-10 with a qualifier, instead?:D:D.) PSA registry thingie;)

3 bidders at 460k or more.....very very strong. It's a great 8 though maybe not the absolute best. The consignor should be quite happy on that one.

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.d...p2047675.l2565


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What to do if no pay.
 

If you are PWCC and the high bidder doesn't pay for the 52 Mantle...you cant relist it right? nobody would want to consign a card like that again..

Thus, we may be seeing this card at another AH in 2016......

The first PSA 6100,000 52 Mantle?
 

I am surprised but can't say shocked that a PSA 6 is at 82,000 at Goodwin auction already. I know it is a beautiful card but has the market gone crazy? Has Mickey become the darling of every Wall Street investor? Markets make the price but can anyone say bubble.

There are 3 1952 Mantle PSA 10's out there. Wonder what one of them would bring. 3 Million?

52 psa 10 guess
 

If an 8 is going for 500,000 then a 9 would be 1.5 million, and a ten probably 3 mil or more. Some hedge fund manager yankee fan would know that a 10 is so rare that they may never get another chance. So my guess is it could top 3 million, possibly 5 million.

I would not be surprised to see it break the trimmed Wagner record if auctioned today. Like you said it could be years or decades before another came up. 5 mil doesn't sound impossible.

All depends on how badly the second hedge fund manager yankee fan wants it.

Mantle 10
 

No doubt a mantle PSA 10 would top the PSA 8 wagner in price. The hype on a 10 at auction would be extraordinary. The guys making a billion a year on Wall Street would jump at it. Price, sky is the limit but would set the record for any card ever sold.

1952 Mantle
 

Anyone have a 9 for 1.5 I can make a nice commission and still get you the 1.5. It is a minimum 2 million dollar card in a PSA 9 at the current time. I believe a 10 could hit 5 or more if offered for sale. Remember the fit Rosen through when Marshall bought his. Guess he doesn't feel it was such a stupid move anymore.

Who would have thought a decent but not great 6 would go for 85k?

I think in 5=10 years we will say who would of thought psa 6's would go for 30k after seeing them go for 60-130k...housing bubble all over again....I know if I bought one it would be with the intention of selling it in a year or two to 'flip' it...no way I hold for years and years..

I agree. It just seems like there are too many of them for the price to continue to rise. I can see well centered 8s, 9s and 10s rising, but the rest seems to be a huge bubble to me.

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

I'll hold them after you croak ;)

I hope there are 1000s of collectors like you that would be GREAT for the hobby..but time will tell...if we see Mantles hitting the market that were bought a year or two ago we know those aren't collectors like you..

Nice looking 52T Mantles in any grade are scarce relative to the demand for them. The number of guys who want a nice one in each grade/price range far outstrips the supply.

Well said. +1.

I think many folks, like myself, want one or have wanted one with much desire, but the card has taken another of its periodical "surges" you mention.

When one misses the boat like this, a human being has two ways they can react (of course among others)...

One choice is to work harder to try and obtain one ASAP.

The other choice is to soothe oneself by saying, "The card price is gonna crash, so I'm actually happy that I can't get one right now."

I am not deluding myself. The card is an icon to any baseball card collector, and even "hobby outsiders" I have met greet that card with a pure smile.

I am choosing to work harder and one day get one.

I think to wait ten years or even five for something I love-- when life can be nasty, brutish, and short, as the saying goes---- is folly. Especially when realizing that history, lots of history, says the card---- and undoubtedly its nicer specimens in each and every grade---- will keep rising in price. Especially when the view that prices will suddenly come down out of nowhere in ten years is likely (in my own opinion, thinking from a psychology point of view) a view that comes from a place of not having what one desires.

In summation, I tip my cap to those who already own one (a double tip of the cap if the card is even partially centered!). It must give you gentlemen much pleasure to hold and look at. I will know that pleasure soon.

I agree 100%. Not rare but very "scarce" for whatever reasons.

There was no shortage in the last Heritage auction.

Goodwin now at 100.

Mantle
 

I collect Topps, Bowman and Fleer sets so collecting Mantle has just been a necessity. I think I have all of his Bowman and Topps issues except the 61 Dice, 66 Punch Out and 68 Disc. But being a variations collector as well, that meant 2 of the 52s.

I have no idea who is right about the future, but glad I bought when I did rather than wait for the prices to come down. Don't think I would have made it. :)

yeah like you said there are more ways to react than just two.......but prices just don't continue to come up or you cant assume that ...I remember they said that about real estate.....there is a thing called price adjustment...anyway we shall see in 5-10 years......you can post something on the that time capsule thread I started and open it 10 years from now and can show how you were right..

Mr. Mets, you remind me of myself 13 years ago when I was thinking about a T206 Plank. I just missed a PSA 3 that sold for $12k. I decided to go harder for the next one...and the next and the next ... but I finally got one.

It was the best collecting move I ever made. If I had waited for the price to drop? Well, that same PSA 3 that I missed is selling around $70k today. So good luck getting the Mantle, and once you get it I hope that you enjoy it as much as I enjoy my Plank. :)

I think with recent prices you will start to see more pop up that people had bought purely for investment purposes. Only time will tell if the market can sustain these prices, but I can't imagine they will keep this pace up. Anyone who bought a centered 5 or better more than a year ago has to be pretty happy right now.

not sustainable
 

These rapid escalations are never sustainable. Yes, it seems like now everyone must own a 52 Mantle and therefore the price can only rise. We know that is how bubbles occur. Of course the Mantle is worth what someone will pay for it until the bubble pops. You have to wonder who will be the one losing a ton of money on a 150k PSA 6 which it seems will happen soon. We can all say we are in it for the joy of collecting but I want joy and a good investment. Loving my 52 at a good acquisition price will give me more joy than seeing it drop 50% in the next recession. Just saying be careful my collecting friends because crazy price rises are just that, crazy.

People probably said the same thing went it went from 1K to 3K, whenever that was.

People ignore bubbles
 

Anytime a price jumps about 500% in 5 years with inflation being about 10% , it is a strange economic phenomenon. In 2010 the PSA 6 was about 18-20k. The 7 was about 35. Yes, obviously demand has increased enough to bid up the price 500%. Anytime you have such a rapid rise, it is important to ask why and is it a rationale investment. It seems we are in the classic argument made during bubbles. That is "I better buy now because in a year the price will double." Since no one can ever predict exactly when a bubble will burst it could be a PSA 7 will sell for 300k in a year, or 75k if it pops.

If investors are the ones buying and bidding up the price, then they will be the first to panic and sell if we hit hard economic times. Collectors will hold a lot longer but no one wants to take a bath. Just my two cents on the Mantle mania.

right when the flippers all of the sudden cant flip that's the danger time...the great great cards in collections for years or until the collector dies those are fine..but its when those flippers cant find anymore flippers..thats something to find out and see what hpapens..

feeding the frenzy
 

I am concerned that there are a lot of people in the hobby who have a vested interest in feeding the frenzy for a hot card. Telling potential buyers in auction catalogs that Mantles are a great investment and they are likely to rise only fuels the bubble. Anyone who has one is happy with the meteoric rise, and anyone who gets a buyers commission is also thrilled to take 19%-20% of a rising price. I am a collector who bought the 52 at a decent price years ago. I am happy my card is worth a lot more, but as a collector I am concerned what this rise indicates for collectors. I know any collectible market has collectors, investors, and speculators. Each segment has its place but when speculators dominate, there is trouble ahead.

My thought is that those that are willing to pay these mad prices don't care if the economy tanks simply because most likely they are the uber rich, eg. hedge and private dudes who simply want the best of a fixed supply commodity, ie. a '52 Topps Mick and have more than enough liquid funds to do whatever feels good when a copy comes around, and my what a flood we are now witnessing. Still if we go into another recession, I suspect holders of high grade copies will just sit tight rather than take a loss by selling. They didn't become the 1% by making stupid investments.

hope you are right
 

Even the very rich take losses. Look at luxury real estate, the high end art market, jewelry. In a recession the uber rich, many of whom live well above their means, need to raise cash. They have lots of assets, but also lots of debt. Yes, the guys making a billion a year are immune, but the rest of the rich go into debt and bankruptcy like the rest of us. Just saying the guy who paid 500k for the psa 8 might need to sell in a financial crisis to prevent foreclosure on the beach house.

This card often
 

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

Yep, I bet at 5k people were shaking their heads and saying it can't keep going up.

A Fun Debate
 

Who knows who is right about the long term price. The back and forth on the Mantle mania on this board is interesting and fun to consider. My cards have been a much better financial investment than my stocks/real estate. I bought most in the late 1990's and some in the recession of 2008. I am always a little afraid that these printed cardboard pieces have no intrinsic value and will eventually be worthless. I know there will always be a market for rare cards, but when my selling mantle can fund a new Mercedes or a college education I shake my head in wonder.

Right on the money. I'd bet most people who say it's overpriced don't have one and secretly want one, if they're honest with themselves. There's no such thing as overpriced anyway, a person will pay what they will, and that's the price at that moment in time.

I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine.

Yeah I agree re no intrinsic value but that is true of almost any collectible, no? As long as people have disposable income, they will value collectibles, it's human nature And if they don't have any income it will be because the economy is so bad that stocks won't be worth anything either.

like I said, if we see the exact cards that had huge price increases going back on the market, like the 100k cards, then we will know its flippers and not guys like MattyC..we can only hope there are more MattyCs in the world and not flippers but time will tell.....im sure people will draw attention on this forum when the see a same card hit the market again in a year or two.....no way those sellers are those people that loved the card for the intrinsic pleasure its a flipper..we shall see

I am beginning to think that The Mick has become the new Honus and the hedgies and those like them, disappointed that a Honus has not been seen in the marketplace for some time, are directing their awesome monetary firepower at the '52 Topps Mantle, the 2nd prize. If that line of logic is at all correct, then watch out the next time that a Honus is offered up, which will inevitably happen. Fireworks!

and then there's the 1951
 

While the 52T has been been taking off like a rocket, the same seems to be holding true for the 51B. I had been in the market for one all year and then my hopes of getting a nice one -centered, no roller marks - in a low grade steadily dwindled. I finally ended up getting a PSA 2 with those criteria but I spent more than I wanted to (I began the year with hopes of getting a PSA 3 around $3K - ended up getting a 2 for closer to $4K). Three PSA 2s went over the weekend - Goldin and a couple on ebay in the $3500-4500 range. Is any of this price correction for a seemingly undervalued card? If the 52T averages $11K in PSA2, certainly the "true rookie" card should be at least half as much in same condition? Speculators or price correction amongst collectors?

eh its a whole different animal..many collectors don't even collect bowman..only topps for postwar......plus dead centered can impact value as much as 20-40% versus cards of the same grade in these waterfront property cards..

I think the difference could be 100% or more. Take that 6 that just sold for 120k. And off center tilted 6 that just missed being OC would probably go for for less than half of that

+1 on both. The "big boys" can throw hundreds of thousands (or more) around like nickels--they aren't "investing," they just want and can afford the best available. It's only a sign that our hobby is maturing, just like coins did, but faster, due to the facilitation of communication between prospective buyers and sellers regarding any scarce to rare items through use of the internet. As I've said before, in the '90's, you used to either have to go to a lot of quality shows to find that highly sought after card, or get lucky through an SCD ad. Now, the large number of prime auction houses and a continuing search on ebay makes task of finding even a pretty rare item far easier.

Regards,

Larry

That would be a treat, indeed, for those of us holding Wagners far rarer than the T206--a rising tide lifts all ships!

Happy collecting,

Larry

Absolutely a big +1. People like collecting history, especially Americana in this country, and a key card has every bit as much intrinsic value as any other collectible. The card is an instant, just a single moment in the prime of the player's life left behind, which connects you to him and takes you back to the time. That is value--psychological value, but substantial value nonetheless. The 1933 Double Eagle that auctioned off at $7+ million would have a bullion value of a microscopic fraction of that, and people don't spend 8 figures on a '60's Ferrari to drive it around, not even at the Monteray vintage car races. They spend that kind of money because they like these objects, they gain prestige in owning the best for their collections, and they are able to do so.

Good posts,

Larry

status symbol....but I don't see people buying a beat up mantle for that...it would be the better looking ones.....those 60's Ferraris that are bought are always in excellent shape..not beat up

ok how about 111k for the PSA 6 and climbing
 

Yes, a very nice centered 6 on Goodwin. But 111k already and still time to bid. Will enjoy watching where this one nets out tonight. Will we see 150k with the premium?

Wonder when the bubble will burst lol
Reminds me of the good old days in the real estate market 2005-2007 :D
Fun to watch i will admit. Wish i had a Mantle to sell.
Kind of seeing these outrageous #'s for lots of high end cards and even some mid grade ones.
Enjoy

a lot of times on the big cards 90% of the bidding is already completed sometimes even the highest bid....days to go or hours to go is meaningless sometimes...the excitement already over but we shall see

Is someone thinking that card has a bump in it? Otherwise the price seems absurd. A very nice 6 was hanging around ebay forever unsold at 60. Then again, Matty C can probably defend it. :D

a 6 for 60k would be a steal!!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-M...3D401019500585

Yeah we are starting to border on the absurd.

yes it is looking bubbly!
 

Looks like that mid level 6 on mile high will go for 67+ so 70-75 seems like the new normal for the 6. I see the ebay 6 got re-listed for much more.

impressed by seller 'stuffbysil' selling 3 1952 Micks --holy cow!! and sold one in past 6 months.
a 8oc, 6, and a 4 talking big volume for what looks like a jeweler/card collector. Defintely HIGH-END stuff he has.
These prices are pure madness to think a '2' is reaching 15k prices.

I remember not going higher on a beautiful 4 when it went for around 8k or so.....Anything halfway decent is 5 figures now.