T206 ed walsh blue old mill sgc 30!
 

Already been discussed in a long thread from the national. I know this seller well and have done alot of deals with him in the past. I am convinced this card without a doubt is the real deal, and i am considering trying to structure a deal to purchase it. I know it's almost impossible, but i would really appreciate any thoughts or comments as to the estimated value. I have already spoken with dave, and we both agreed to post this.......thanks in advance

Some lunatic(s) will probably pay 50K+ for that thing!

Is it value protected via SGC? 10-20k.

Well, someone paid $20k for a "only known example" of a Piedmont 350. So it needs to be at least $21K.

Seems like outing the deal here may not work out in your favor;
i.e. Bidding war

problem is...someone like me...who has no interest in the card will give an honest answer...whereas someone who's interested...like Kevin...would obviously prefer to hear low estimates?!

what does SMR say?

For being a tough back and of a new color I think this will help give you an idea of value.
A regular old mil is worth about 1.25x premium.
Because it a blue I think that adds another 2x to the equation.

So what ever a SGC 30 Walsh goes for just times that by 2.5 and I think both of yall will come out with smiles on this deal.

This was a joke.

a 1of1 the only way to know is at auction I feel. Its the only one so its hard to price as nothing like it has sold

:D

I should have known that posting this on net54 would be a 100%, no doubt about it, absolute waste of time..... I must admit, i was warned by a couple of people.

If that card were offered in REA or another major auction, it's realistic to think it would bring at least $40,000-$50,000.

I would definitely think north of $20K. $20-40K would be my estimate. Just depends who wants it at auction. How many high rollers want it after it hits $20K?

Anyone have a picture of that card?

Most of the "high rollers" are not variation collectors, nor upgraders, they focus more on completion of extremely difficult sets. Many of them could care less what's on the back.

Edited to add, I have held the card and louped it front and back and feel it's legit, even after I first had reservations.

Call me crazy but I actually think the card would be worth more if another surfaced... This would give a bit of legitimacy to the card. Right now, I feel like it is hard to discount the fact that this may just be a freak because of the failure to change ink, color fading, etc. I know back collectors can pay crazy prices, but I can conceivably see this card being a $10k or less card.

I don't think it's a waste of time, people who know about the set are giving you real answers. I too think it's probably around 50 K. I think that's a crazy number, and a realistic number at the same time.

I can't see paying $40-50K for the card. Once you are talking that much money, you're competing against some other really nice choices. I know that I'd rather be able to say that I owned a $50K T206 Plank than a $50K T206 Old Mill Blue back.

I'd put the over/under at $25k.

Over 25k. Not sure if you were hoping to hear of something like less than 5k, but I think that card is worth over 25k.

blue om
 

alot of great answers so far:)......another found would legitimize it possibly:confused:....i don't feel this is a 50 k plus card......i find brown om much more appealing , since brown om are actual printers scrap....if this was a hand cut card, i would put it at 25 k or better......if blue om were comparable to brown om and other examples were found, especially hand cut as if off a sheet the printer was experimenting with ink, then the skys the limit...


but, that is not the case with this card...

i put it at 5k-10k purely as a curiousity




.....why has it been held a secret for this long????????????:confused::confused:

i'm not feeling this one ....through my ignorance with it... please forgive me, and in all due respect....it just doesn't" do it for me".....

only one man 's opinion, and you know what they say about those:o;)


Kevin, wish you all the luck with this card...i dont know the seller but wish him luck also....

:D


Please let us know what the hammer is!! don't hold out:D

I could not rationalize it going above the cost of a Plank in similar grade, which is 30 K or so? I am sure someone else might point that it is less numerous. i would say it is less significant in my eyes, but both are pretty cool.

A sgc30 plank value is arround 30 to 40 k yes. But i think it is more near 40 . 30k for a sgc30 is a great deal.

$20k-$50k? Give me a break. I wouldn't give you $50 for it.

Value is in the eye of the beholder, though. The guy that might possibly spend 30-50 K on this card probably already has a Plank, but I personally can't rationalize spending more then a couple grand on the card. I was guessing much higher because I'm sure, at the national, the seller already received offers between 5 and 10 K and didn't take any of them.

:D:D

I'm still not sure how SGC could grade this being the only example known. I mean, what are they comparing it to? Especially when there are reprints with blue OM backs WITH factory #'s, and they don't say reprint.....in a recent thread there was a scan of a red OM back, factory# and didn't say reprint.

I don't know, I didn't see it in person, and am skeptical by nature-but I'd have to pass on it as well. More power to whoever buys it, let the force be with you :D

By the way-if it's not PB blue, what T206 blue would you compare this with? Piedmont? Uzit?

Sincerely, Clayton

I can guarantee an offer was made at nationals for 30k+ cash. They are a board member also. If they want to make it know that's up to them. So Kevin if your thinking below that I'm not sure. You never know though. Good luck on the deal.

This card still blows my mind. The front looks fake...flip it over, and you have a blue background...and that convinces people that it's real? A fake looking front and a previously unknown back? And people are talking 30K on it? I think this is the moment when the cool printing freak collectors officially go insane.

If you did a simple test of the text on the front...say take text from 50-100 t206's...and mix a couple good fakes in there...like the reback/fronted impossible combinations...and most skeptical collectors rank this card as the most likely to be fake. That's based on the front...and now how does a blue back make you feel? Better?

I also dislike the 'shade' variations...red to orange (except for the t210's), black to brown...etc. So yeah, a legit blue wouldn't impress me much. But if it were candy apple green, then I'd give 10K ;-) (patiently waiting for one to appear...I'll give it a month before one is "discovered")

Mac

A lot of us got a close look at it at the National and I didn't hear one person say it wasn't legitimate. As far as the mania over back collecting, I'm with you.


Bill

I am a back collector but not necessarily of a variant color (at least at the price level of the T206 color variations). I would guess this card to be 25k-40k in auction and 30k is probably close to the mark. Just a guess on my part though.

That astounds me really...don't know how to link the thread/pic of it or I would. The font on it is BLACK, it has artificially rounded corners, the color looks off...and it has a blue old mill back. Now tell me again why you would think it's real??? What I look for on fake t206's...font color/style, unrealistic wear, coloring,...and maybe a back that is known to exist. The Walsh fails all of these tests. I'm not saying it's a terrible fake...but I would say it's a fake on the front alone. 100 times out 100, I'd call it a fake. Then add a blue old mill back??? I need to get into the card printing business...

I think that something so unique requires an extra burden of proof. This card fails a normal test that I do on my $10-$15 t206's. No history behind the card, fails the most basic tests, looks amazingly similar to blue old mill repro's that are out there...and people want to say it's real?

Mac

Have you held it in your hand?

Peter, I think your 1st post was an honest one, Really!

Unless you've held a card in your hand and examined it in person it is simply impossible to give an educated opinion on whether it is a counterfeit. The skill level of the people on this board who've spoken up and at SGC who've seen the card in person is about as high as you can hope for in this hobby and if all of them are confident that the card is a genuine T206, then it is either the greatest forgery of all time--which I find it hard to believe would be anything but a Wagner--or genuine. I don't find that that inconceivable that in all of the thousands of sheets run for this set with dozens of backs in various colors that someone somewhere in the sequence ran a sheet with the wrong ink.

As for what it is and what it is worth, it is not a variation needed for a master set [which I define as an intended change by the mfg], it is an error card. It is worth whatever someone will pay for it. My SWAG is about $5,000-$10,000 but I could see a couple of well-heeled collectors beat each others' brains out for it and push it substantially higher.

I'd have taken the $30K in cash [provided it was actually cash] at the natty and gone on a spending spree...

Not yet...I think it's common to think a card is real, then hold it and think it's fake...rarer to say a card is fake, then hold it and think it's real.

I stole this scan from the old post on the card. It's a better young reprint with the blue old mill back. This card was sold as a fake...with a blue old mill back...and it still looks better than the walsh. Does anybody think the Walsh looks better than the young?

http://i.imgur.com/eTHBg.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/BiAeP.jpg
http://www.net54baseball.com/attachm...1&d=1343940302

Now that I see it again, I think the dealer should've took that 30 K.

I didn t hold the card in my hand so it is hard to make my opinion. And i also have 100% confidence in SGC .

For the price i am not a back expert so i have no idea of how much this card can bring at auction but it is extremely interresting to see it.

Obviously that Pic Chris posted is blown out(white from flash)...but what's up with the seemingly disappearing border on upper 1/3 of the rt side and also seen in a similar spot on the left side.

I've been staring at the lettering in the words "Base Ball Subjects" and "Large Assortment" for awhile now, and looking at the back of the known Young blue OM reprint, and looking at the same words on the back of this Walsh blue OM, and am noticing something similar- squiggly lines on the same letters (i.e. the "E" in "Base" and the "E" in "Subjects").... the "A's" the "T's" and the "B's".......maybe it's just my eyes though.

Sincerely, Clayton

*edit to add,,,may not of explained what I meant well enough-I'm talking about uniformity and characteristics(sp?) of the same letters of the same sizes

Yes. The print quality is very different.

While the color of the name and team can be a red flag, black or very dark brown is not a solid indicator of a fake, especially on a computer monitor where so many things affect the displayed color.

Steve B

I still think its fake. The black lettering, the known reprinted back color, the weird wear and the fact that these blue reprints have been around for at least 20 years which is the same time the owner has said they've owned the card are all red flags to me. Then again SGC is the best no doubt. I would not make an offer on the card but that's just me.

Edited to add that even the seemingly one of one freak printing errors like ghost prints and cards printed with only yellow and brown ink or cards with huge splotches across their fronts and even cards with crazy over printed backs all appear in multiple examples of cards from this set.

Gut check
 

I put a lot of faith in the board members and experts that have seen and held the card and deemed it legit. Everyone of you has more experience than I do in cards in general and T206 in particular.

That said ... while its hard to make a call from only seeing the posted images, my gut reaction from the front only was "it doesn't look right". Can't precisely explain why, but so be it - I'd pass on it as anything more than a curiosity.

--
Mike

Mike, i agree with Your second point, though i am also one who has not seen this card in person.

However, over the course of 4+ decades, i've seen and owned more than my fair share of T206's, and based upon the scan alone, there is something that just doesn't seem right about this card.

Hopefully my impression is incorrect.

I could not make a judgment off an atrocious photo like that.

Next time I will get some professional equiptment for pics then.

For all you Nay Sayers I can say probably 100% of you have not even seen more than a pic. I have personally held the card raw, louped it, and hit it with a black light. Unless someone recreated the lithograpy spot on I will stand behind SGC and everyone else that handled the card. All that have seen it say its good. That solidifies it more than the guys looking at a computer screen saying no.

I think people have a bigger issue with the lack of a reasonable explanation for how such a card could have been made in a sole individual printing. As I said every printing anomaly, even the most extreme of them, seem to have at least one other example except this card.

I guess I'm a Nay Sayer so I feel compelled to respond. I have not seen the card in person & have never attempted to discredit anyone who has. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, mine is just different than others-and I am no "expert" by any means- but I have learned enough over the past 4-5 years to have hesitations about this card.

I guess people get annoyed that EVERYONE doesn't just accept the card because the majority already has-especially after SGC gives it their stamp of approval. In most cases, I would be on board with this scenario. My gut is holding me back- I don't know what else to say. A good friend from this board saw the card at the National and he also said it looked real. I HIGHLY value his opinion- but I am still skeptical.

This may sound stupid-but- did anyone who held the raw card "smell" it? :)
Just curious. And, by the way- card doctors know how to get around the "black light" and the "loupe" by now-ask Kevin S. (he responded about this card in the other thread).

I mean no disrespect to ANYONE who has seen the card in person and believes it to be real, I just want to be clear on that.

Sincerely, Clayton

+1 Yes

Sincerely, Clayton

Maybe I missed this in a previous thread. But if an original regular Old Mill T206 card was placed directly in the hot sun, back side up for a long period does the black ink turn blue from the UV? I know black ballpoint kinda fades to a dark purple after a while. How about setting it under some sort of artificial light for a very long period of time? Just some crazy thoughts...considering sunlight will fade the paint right off an automobile.

By saying you need more than one for proof you are saying all single example cards are discredited. The hobby has left no stone unturned looking for the Tango Eggs Cobb and finally one surfaced after Several years of heavy debate and discussion. So that card is fake also till another surfaces?

Yes I smelled the card. Sounds weird but the simple fact I use a wrap around loupe the card(s) are always extremely close to my face. You also can't deni the fact that the card has the floral lithography characteristics. The simple fact that by SGC slabbing this card would destroy their reputation if it came out to be fake is a pretty big issue as well as some of the most respected names in the hobby staking their reps on this as well. It's hard to deni the facts but as always when the herd goes right there is always those few that stray right.

Didn't SGC (along with PSA) also encapsulate an Old Mill black overprint that turned out to be fake?

This may be why some people are still skeptical when a new Old Mill anomaly hits the market.

Old Mill black overprint apology forum

I'm not saying there has to be two of EVERY card. It just seems logical that cards from this particular set, of which probably hundred of thousands were made, there would have to be at least two of everything. Especially considering as I've said there are at least two of even the most extreme, semmingly one off printing freaks from this set (yellow and brown ink only cards, cards with huge color splotches across the fronts, ghost images, severely miscut half of one card half of another cards, grossly over-printed backs, etc.). There's no comparing cards printed for the T206 set to Tango Eggs or any other obscure type set when looking for variables or considering population numbers.

Edited to add we also know without a doubt that these cards were printed in sheets. That's why there would have to be at least two and why there are two of every other printing anomaly.

I looked for that post, but couldn't find it in the original thread. Was it in another one? The only way around the blacklight that I know of is very obvious, and I can't think of any way to make modern printing look like
the type of lithography used on T206s. It should be possible to duplicate the entire process, so I wouldn't rule that out.

I did post an explanation of how this card could have happened at the factory, but it was at the very end of the original thread. I've copied and pasted it below.

"Ok, so here's a theory- Or just a crazy guess if you want to call it that.

T206s are being printed, a batch of fronts are done and backs are being printed. Polar bear on one press, Old mill on another. It gets late in the afternoon, and the guy running the Old mill press realizes he's going to run low on ink a bit before quitting time. So he asks the guy next to him who's runnning a dark blue if he'll have any extra. He will, and shortly before quitting the first guy adds that extra to his ink reservoir. Blue mixes with the black he's running, making some very dark blue backs, and transitioning to a color close to the blue but not quite, maybe just a bit darker.
The day ends, the presses are washed down removing the days ink, and the handful of sheets slips by QC if there is any because the colors are close until the last few sheets. They're cut and distributed, probably not even getting into the same carton.

-Most pressmen do their own QC in the time I was at the print shop I only did QC once. And that was on a program for an event where we had to look for perfect copies that would be presented to the dignitaries presenting papers. Try finding 50-75 flawless copies out of 5000 of anything."


The pics taken at an angle that were posted in the original thread show the name and team as brown, at least on my monitor. Computer monitors aren't known for precise color rendering, and digital cameras aren't much better.

I'd love to see a scan taken at 800-1200dpi. The differences are really obvious at that level.

Steve B

+100

Hi Andrew-

I'm not sure how you are taking my posts- I'm only wanting to have a rational discussion about the card, I'm not trying to convince anyone that the card is real or fake, in fact, I have not used the word fake. But, you are correct, I am not following the herd on this one.

I highly doubt SGC's rep would be destroyed because they slabbed this card (if it did turn out to be a "Frankenstein") because they are only human, and mistakes will be made. I love SGC, and I prefer the way they grade cards. But that doesn't mean they are flawless and will never get something wrong.

And the same goes for the most respected names in the hobby- why would their reputation be on the line?? :confused: I'm missing that point.

What I am saying is that I would think before SGC slabbed this as a "Blue Back" they should have at least one other to compare it to- otherwise, I'd think they would just label it "Old Mill".......

Packs already made the points I would make, I feel like a broken record. For all those who say the card is the real deal-more power to you and don't mind me. If you want to spend thousands on it, by all means, have at it.

Sincerely, Clayton

Hi Steve-

Kevin did respond about the card in that thread, but not about a black light or a loupe..,I didn't word that quite right :o I should of said " and of anyone I could think of who would know how to get around those things, I would think it would be him" or something to that effect :)

I did read your post and it is a good theory, but it's like much of the mysteries of T206....we can try to make sense of things, but proving it is difficult,if not impossible. I tried for months to come up with some kind of proof (a theory I had) that the fronts of the cards were printed at the ALC and sent to the factories to have the backs printed on them "at the factories" but could not find anything to solidify my theory....I almost started a thread about it, I was pretty convinced that the 150 series had both front and back printed at the ALC but maybe the 350 and 460 series were shipped to the factories to have them print the backs (one color ink, one pass-as opposed to a six step process). After running this by a few people, I realized my theory wasn't right * although I still wonder :D*

Thanks for your response, I always enjoy your posts, very informative about printing processes-I learn alot from your posts.

Sincerely, Clayton

+1 And thanks for posting that link.

Sincerely, Clayton

You can put me on the highly skeptical side of the ledger. Based on nothing more than the obvious -- the color of the printing.

We now live in a T206 economy where slight deviations from the norm create huge prices. The incentive to create a deviation, coupled with the relative ease of creating only the slightest deviation, is so great.

I will take as a given that the Walsh is an authentic Old Mill T206 card. I will not take as a given that the color of the ink was blue when it left the factory over 100 years ago. I would need some additional circumstantial evidence.

This has been mentioned before, but some non-sport Old Mill cards have blue ink like the kind this T206 has. Take a look at the border around Walsh's portrait. That ink is also blue (not black), i.e., it's not just the back that's different.

If a typical hobby pattern holds, another one of these may appear. Many 'one-of-a-kind' items turn out not to be unique. We've seen this many times before. I'd be just as skeptical as some of the posters here if I hadn't held the card in my hand. But, I did, and I'm confident it's legitimate.


Bill

Good points, Bill. Maybe Chris will provide us with a blow-up of the front borders of a 'normal' Walsh vs this one.

Hey Bill,

Which non sport Old Mills have the same color ink? In person, this looks like the same color as T42 Old Mills?

Rob

Ah, that makes sense now.
It should be possible to add a UV blocker to get around the blacklight, but all the ones I know of would be very obvious.

And it's so true that a lot of the details about T206 or nearly every card set of the era will probably remain unproven. Unless someone turns up some paperwork from ALC or from ATC we can't know what was made when or in what quantity.

There's a lot of stuff I could pin down if I had access to some real science equipment. Like what the exact makeup of the black old mill ink was. Most black inks can't turn blue. Carbon particles in a hardener won't ever fade or turn, Iron gall ink fades brown, but not Brown OM brown and it wasn't used in lithography since it's not oil based. Some dyes can change. I vaguely recall making some stuff with my chemistry set that could be changed. But I've never seen it used anywhere and I'm not sure if it changed both ways or just from blue to black. (I seem to remember it changing both ways depending on what was added, but it was over 40 years ago)

And I'm constantly learning things that change things slightly. Like recently I found out that one particular printing of Stamps from New Zealand can be identified from another nearly identical one by the reaction of the paper to blacklight. One shows green, the other doesn't. And that printing was pre 1900. So some old papers do react, which I never knew.

Steve B

Steve B

Hey Rob -

Right, the T42 (Series 2) "Bird Series" has the Old Mill blue backs. We were trying to find one at the National to compare to the T206, but couldn't locate one. Those don't sell for $30K each, in case anyone's wondering.


Bill

Here's a link for others to see.

http://www1.coe.neu.edu/~dan/T42/backs.html

Rob

Hopefully scans of the blue OM will be available next week.

Creepy Walsh....with an unknown name on top....only example I got.

http://i.imgur.com/1h0gk.jpg

How about 25k, Bill?

That is not a good deductive argument against the legitimacy of any card. It has a formal fallacy. A good deductive argument has to have all true premises from which the conclusion is reached:

All men are mortal
I am a man
I am mortal.

The argument against the card is:

All genuine Old Mill cards are black backed
This card is blue-backed
This card is not a genuine Old Mill

Problem is, no one here has seen every Old Mill card ever made. The first leg of the argument is invalid. It is a fallacy of division variation: ascribing an attribute to every member of a class because every known member of the class has it. Doesn't rule out the exceptional cases within the unknown part of the group.

I am willing to be wrong. I am just stating a case and making points.

Chris,

If I were to take a guess at your "unknown name" Walsh, my guess would be Lumley, Brooklyn is the name on the top.

The two o's in Brooklyn stand out to me. After looking at the team checklist for Brooklyn I think the first letter of the player's name is an "L". That narrows it down to Lennox or Lumley. Just from what I see in your scan my money is on Lumley.


Jantz

I think you're right...
 

I think you nailed that one Jantz. Good eye.

Still no bid on it

http://www.hugginsandscott.com/cgi-b...l?itemid=51236

I would bet there is at least one bidder on the card. Especially after seeing some of the red hindu prices. I would imagine 15000 would be a bargain in some person's eyes.

In response to g vezina c55,

Considering how some (many? most?) people on this board have questions about the authenticity of the blue backed Old Mill Walsh and then seeing as how Mastro has been recently reported as going to plead guilty for various things (including card doctoring?) could we assume that the people who have the money to afford this Walsh are gun shy in pulling the trigger on it?

David

i saw all the thread on the board about this Walsh card.

Perhaps you are corect in your reflexion about all the accusation about mastro, card doctoring etc...

I am impatient to see if anyone will bid on this card.

Personally i have no opinion about this card, i never see it in real and never holded in my hand so i can t have any real opinion.

2 days left !

From the auction description....

Ah-HA! Respect our authoritah! :)

I agree that this auction will be a bit interesting to watch and see where it ends. The bar is set with the $15K opening bid, but I am wondering if this auction might do better with a lower starting number.

Do you think it will garner an opening bid?

I'm not sure it will.

AndyH

.

I think you need to find another before this one gets a bid that high. With a back like that, they would've ran off at least one sheet, so there would be others out there. Just one sheet seems unrealistic to assume though, because there really isn't an error here. They had no troubles letting piedmonts go from dark blue to light blue and every blue in between, so why would this set off alarms.

So until you find others, that price is a pretty big leap because the worst case scenario if they're wrong is you have an SGC30 Walsh with an Old Mill back. I might pay double the going rate of a Walsh to take the risk, but I'm not going 150x the price!

John, your read on this makes perfect sense to me, but along with all the board skepticism, there were also plenty here who gave it their blessing - guys who have the dough to back up their beliefs.

Assuming this goes for ONLY $15,000...as a T206 collector, if I had that much to spend on one card, this would not be the one. In fact, it wouldn't make my top 100 - and that's only for T206's.

I'll believe that someone is willing to spend that much when I see the bid placed. Until a second one shows up, it is a huge risk. This seems like a case where having more known copies is better, to a certain point obviously.

I don't think the starting price is too high though. If it was mine, I'd certainly want to sell it for as much as possible. I would hate to take a much lower number only to have a couple other copies surface, thus legitimizing the card and driving the price up.