Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?
 

Hi there - I wanted to spark a debate.

I'm 31 and started collecting 1948 Leafs. I do it because I enjoy it and though it's a pricy set, I like the "pop art" feel of the cards. However, among my peers, it seems I'm on an island when it comes to baseball cards. My generation (X) were the kiddos in the late 80s racing to buy cards, that's all we did in between playing sandlot games. I remember the packs of cards front and center in EVERY package store.

Not only do kids younger than me not even play sandlot pickup games anymore (unless you count an impromptu game on PS3), but they're not buying packs of cards and they're not that "into" baseball, and I say this as a whole. Sure there are young kids at shows and sure there are some young collectors, but I say this as a widespread phenomenon.

I wonder when these kids are 40, 50, 60, etc. and have the buying power to go after a set like a 48 Leaf, will it even cross their minds? Is baseball even that much of a widespread interest? I'm saying this as myself probably the younger side (again, age 31) of expensive set collecting. I don't even see the POTENTIAL for interest.

Although I realize posting in a baseball card forum is bias to begin with, because we're all collectors and we probably think card collecting is the bee's knees, but I wonder, looking 50 years down the road, is lack of demand going to make a 1948 Leaf Set, with "short print" not even meaning anything to anyone in my generation, going to be commanding the prices they command today?

I'm just looking for some intelligent banter on the matter! And yes, as a young new collector for high-priced cards, I do have a vested interest in what you are all saying, because though I enjoy collecting, I would like to have some value to trade in decades to come!

It's pretty hard to look fifty years down the road, and there is a real concern that the hobby is getting smaller. And you are correct that most young kids today don't collect baseball cards. That aside, I think as kids grow into adults they often find pleasure in collecting things. I think there will always be collectors of baseball cards, but I am less confident the hobby will continue to grow the way it has in recent years. If you like to collect do so, and try not to focus too much on the investment part of it.

I think cards will always have their place as a piece of American history and thus there will always be demand. To what degree compared to today I have no idea.

Stamp and coin collecting still exists, and I would think kids have much less interest in these things than baseball.

People just like to collect things.

I believe anything post WWII is due for a correction as the generation who saw those players leaves us and takes their market demand with them. There will still be demand as Mantle, Mays and Aaron are classic players, but the market demand will be smaller.

Re : Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?
 

Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

I would answer no (pre-war stuff). As long as folks have disposable income, and there are humans with collecting genes, this hobby will survive. I do believe it is cyclical to some degree, as when times are robust, the hobby has growth spurts, then settles down a bit. Of course the very scarce to rare market for cards to me has never been stronger. (They ain't making anymore of it!)

bound to decline?
 

Let me begin by pointing out that all human things are bound to pass away. Having said that, I don't think that baseball card collecting is necessarily going to fade away soon. As to the sport's popularity, it really depends on where you live. It remains huge in the northeast USA. Where I live, the southwest, baseball is clearly the most popular participatory sport for kids under 12. It's really thriving in places like southern Calf., Nevada, and Arizona. It is true that card collecting is not so popular, but it is bound to remain attractive to substantial numbers of people because, as was said, people like to collect stuff, and because baseball cards are readily collectable.

With pre-WWII cards, the economy helps or hurts their value more than demographics. Nearly every person will have some type of appreciation for a Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth card. I think you already see a softening of the cards in the late 50's and 60's. With many of those sets, the Mantle and the hi # series are the only cards with any type of demand. I would suspect that 30 years from now, my son would be more inclined to want to own a Cy Young instead of a Sandy Koufax. Much of the demand for the 50's and 60's stars is from the aging baby boomers that grew up watching them. I am curious what the 1952 Topps Mantle will sell for in 30 years when most collectors would have never seen him play.

I truly believe people will still collect. Heck, if you asked me 3 years ago if I'd start collecting again, I'd say you were crazy... and yet here I am more interested in the hobby than ever.

As a HS teacher, I have found that 95% of my male students are very much into baseball, and all sports in general. I asked them about baseball cards, and a majority said they collected when they were younger. One expressed to me that he would love to one day own a Ted Williams RC.. another mentioned Lou Gehrig...

The interest is out there... its just very different than our generation (I'll be 30 this month) in that baseball card shops and even shows are not as common, and the internet seems to be the major marketplace.

Aloha! I have collected cards since the fifties. My brother since the forties. We both agree that the "hobby" was waaaay more fun when cards were'nt worth a bunch of cash. I remember turning down 500 different t-206's in the late sixties for a dollar a piece.....5 hundred for 5 hundred. I remember being shocked when first hearing of a single card selling for 100 bucks. I remember buying a complete 53 topps set for $30.00. I remember in the late eighties 52 topps high #s for 5 bucks a piece in some dealers books.
This hobby has become more like coins and stamps since grading companies have sprung up. Also in this economy (which I don't think will ever recover) card prices will decline drastically. In a post apocolyptic world all of us would trade our complete collections for food or water or medications or ammuntion, if we needed it.
That being said, I will still continue to collect but "at my back I always hear time's winged chariot hurrying near". I suspect someday soon, perhaps in my lifetime our beautiful cardboard wafers will be valueless. I buy now only rarely. And only if I don't need the $.........meantime I am cashing in on many of my duplicates to "get ready when the fan hits the poop". Food, water, shelter, clothing, meds, and guns and ammo....thats the way to go. PS check out the history of the great "tulip bulb mania" to see what will become of this hobby. Mahalo, Just my thoughts.
(graded cards suck.....raw is the way to go)

Cardboard Junkie- interesting that you feel the economy will never recover. While I'm not sure that's true, the same thought has crossed my mind too. America is changing drastically, and we will all need to learn how to cope with these changes. Of course if it is in fact true then I would not put much faith in baseball cards as an investment.

My guess is the economy will get better, but it is still many years away. What we are experiencing now is not ending any time soon.

I don't care much. I am collecting for me. The fact that there will be some value to my hobby is a bonus. If I bowled three nights a week or played weekend softball tournaments, there would be no residual value from my hobby.

i don't think I would put $10,000 into cards for a long term investment, but put considerable money into it for the immediate return of owning (at least for a while) something I enjoy.

Same questions have been brought up for last 25 years... yet the values have always gone up.
If someone would have told me 25 years ago that people in the future would be paying 4 figures for a common topps card in MINT condition (PSA registry hype), I would have laughed in their face!! :) ......these same exact cards sold in the $1 bin in any card show back then.

Some prices are just plain crazy IMO, but collectors collect what they want, and their is alot of extra $$ out there to be spent.

PS 1949 Leaf :)

I think the prices of modern cards won't hold up even with the chase cards. I think it's going to be function of supply and demand. There are just too many shiny cards out there. Even a Jeter or Pujols rookie, there are thousands upon thousands of those cards. For the chase refractors like the Strasburg phenomenon last year, I think people will realize that those cards really aren't that valuable. I think people will continue to collect, but they will still be drawn into prewar and vintage cards since the supply is so much less than modern. Therefore, I think these older cards will still hold their value. Now, I don't know if they can continue a strong uptrend like before. I think you could have purchased a T206 Green Cobb 10-15 years ago during the dot com boom still considerably less than you can right now with high unemployment. There may still be gradual appreciation, but I don't know if you can still expect exponential growth like before. I also don't know about card condition at the high end. There is so little difference between PSA 8 and 10 (or SGC or whatever), is the price difference really worth it? That I don't know.

Good points raised by Matt and Mike about the baby boomers and 50's/60's stuff, couldn't agree more. I suspect the appeal of 50/60's stuff is that these collectors also collected these same sets when they were kids. While the appeal of prewar has more to do with early baseball history.

Well there is history in 1950's cards too. Aren't Mays, Aaron, and Mantle, among others, part of baseball history? Sure, the 50's and 60's cards got a huge boost from baby boomers, who are now at an age where more will leave the hobby than enter. But a 1952 Topps set, always a classic, is approaching 60 years old and is also a part of history.

Sure, I think E, T, and N cards have a better chance to increase in value than Topps and Bowman, but I find it hard to believe that the better sets from this latter era won't be avidly collected in the future.

Economic fear factor
 

I disagree with Cardboard Junkie that the world is coming to an end. Economic downturns always bring out the "fear factor" in people. Guns and ammo sales always spike during economic downturns. Although you can't see the light at the end of the tunnel yet, its there. Unemployment will once again be below 6%, people will feel foolish for having 5 handguns at their house and 2 years worth of canned soup in the basement, and people will feel "normal again".

The Wall Street Journal had an article on youth baseball participation earlier this year:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000..._share_twitter

As someone who has worked in local government for 10 years, I can say without any hesitation more kids are playing soccer. Why? More action, cheaper and the games are shorter. When they kids are getting older and decide what game they like best (and what they are good at), they follow in that direction.

Concerning economy, it will recover. When there was the change from agrarian to industrial society, there was economic issues. We are in the midst of a change from industrial (manufacturing) to service delivery. People need to be retrained and re-educated.

Concerning cards, I see the market as more "collectibles" than cards. Show someone an REA catalog and they will read it cover to cover. It just takes a spark to get them involved.

The internet IS the marketplace. I got back into the hobby 4 years ago (I am 34) and have never been to a show or card store.

Definitely a big part of history Barry, as will be 70's/80's/90's cards too. Just personally think that the new vintage collector entering the hobby 20 years from now and with no personal ties to 50/60's (such as collecting it as a kid or seeing these players play), will naturally gravitate towards the older, more diverse stuff. Maybe for no other reason than the perception that older is usually better when it comes to collectibles.

Michael

I appreciate what you say. I am not enthusiastic at all that unemployment will drop below 6%. In fact, I suspect long term it will stick around 9-10%, maybe worse.The healthcare system will no doubt have a huge negative impact on our economy. I know, I work in it all week. However, your positivity certainly at least gives me some hope. In the health care field(I dont know, you may work in it), we are not enthusiastic at all.

On the other hand, agree with Frank. I suspect prewar Baseball will only climb, though perhaps slowly.

Jeff- I think there are many post-war sets, such as 1949 Bowman, 1952 Topps, 1953 Bowman, and 1957 to name a few, that will always be widely collected. Will they be as popular as T206? Perhaps not. But they will have their supporters.

Agreed Barry, there will always be collectors of it. I just think the # of those new collectors may shift a little towards earlier stuff after the baby boomers no longer collect.

My kids love baseball. I have lived in several states in this great union. I have seen towns that have 14 fields and so many people that want to play they don't have room for it.

I think we will see a steady increase in interest in this hobby. Everything is a mindset. If we say "the economy sucks" then the economy sucks but if we keep positive then things are good. We watch too much of those 24 hours news channels.

I think if the kids aren't playing pick up games then we should encourage them to do it. My kids beg me do take them to the park and play baseball all the time.

This is a hobby that tells a story. That's the part we must always remember. Teach this to everyone that will listen. Heck my wife couldn't tell you who Ty Cobb is but if she knows all about the Merkle Boner cause she liked the story when I told it to her.

The new card hobby isn't the same as what it was in the past. But in ways it is better. We have graded cards, we have blogs, we have ebay, and now some of us have money of our own to by what we want. Find the good things to focus on and not so much the negative.

Just my two cents. :rolleyes:

Jon

With the possibility of the dollar being outed, maybe the IMF could use cards as the new base currency!! No wait, they would have to be foreign cards...... Ughhhhhhh.......

value/interest
 

Interesting topic... It does make some sense to think 20-30 yrs from now.... the 40-50 yr olds will want the stuff they grew up with/or admired as kids....which then makes sense to say...Why would that collector be into 30s/40s cards.
I know a fairly major dealer who always says...the kid stuff like Pokeyman and Pogs,etc... that junk will be valuable( again) some day..when those kids get to the age of having the extra cash and want to go back and find that stuff that they loved as kids.

The other side of the coin is,...in the present time,why do collectors in their 30s40s collect Goudey cards .when they never knew or admired Cochrane,Dickey,Waner,etc...as kids growing up

I don't want to take an overly bleak view; I mean, 10% unemployment is 90% employment, right? Certain people collect stuff. Like all of us. Baseball remains hugely popular and a part of American cultural history. It will always be a subject of collection. The only question is whether we've seen a peak to the market for cards. I think we've seen a peak for a while with the pre-2008 prices. I think we've seen the short term bottom some time last year. I think it will take years for prices to rebound--but they will go on. It will beat down some collectors who have to get out now but those who can hold long term and who won't need the money have no reason to panic. Personally, I am liquidating my high grade postwar cards and rebuying the same cards in 'collector' grades for a fraction of the price, and finding that I enjoy having them raw in albums far more than slabbed in stacks, and I can get far more cards for tbe buck to enjoy. That's my adjustment to the new normal; don't expect others will agree.

Another reality is that there are several eras of collection that have very little to do with one another. Anything older than WWII is one epoch, the boomer era cards are another--say post WWII to 1973. The 1970s to 1980 are another. The rest is modern. I do not see any real value to post 1980 base sets. You can have them all for the asking for pennies a card.

Feeling like a kid
 

@hangman...Im 34 and I love the 1915 cj and 34 goudey set more gthan any other cards and I started collecting when I was 5 or so. BB cards were a HUGE part of childhood as my father took me to shows and he eventually started collecting.

Now, when I get my 48 bowman mmcoskey or my 1915 cj alexander I feel like a kid again. I open it, have a special place for the new addition, show it to the wife, talk over and over again about it...I feel like a kid again EVEN if I never saw the guy play. Its our history, who we are. Im basically willing to do this b/c most adults havent felt like a kid in a LOOOOOng time and I think thats a shame. I hope my collection stays valuable but at the same time Ive received more value from it than any amount of $$$ could give me. We just need more kids to feel like kids and get them away from all the electronics.

like a kid
 

Ranier,
I see your point, but 30 yrs down the road..your 64..who's to say that the "now 34 yr olds" will be into CJ's and Goudeys, or maybe the statement should be in 30 yrs there will be LESS younger collectors attracted to CJ's and Goudeys

Baseball seems to be becoming more international. I have always thought that in a decade or two that international market will become more likely to participate in collecting items from a century ago. We may be selling our prewar stuff to someone in Korea or Japan.

I think the fact that you are 31 and collecting Leafs says that there will always be interest. I know a lot of folks younger than you that are passionate about older cards. I am not too worried.
JimB

Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?
 

After cherry picking the shiny stuff, dealers should donate the thousands of unwanted cards to Elementary schools. It's the only way that kids will become interested in BB cards. Otherwise, kids will stay away because of the high prices.

My third graders go nuts when I auction off 100 cards at once at monthly auctions. (Children earn scholar dollars for scholarly traits. They maintain a check register for credits & debits. Things from the DollarTree store, etc are then auctioned off. BB cards are the most popular.)

With the possible exception of true rarities, I think values will gradually decline over time due to the combined effect of long-term economic conditions and aging baby boomers.

Even if cards stay the same price, they are sill dropping in value. Since baseball cards carry limited value or interest overseas, their value is strictly based on their relationship in regards to the American dollar.. Basically, if they don't follow suit with inflation, they are becoming less valuable. I'd see the sports that have more of a growing global interest showing more upside investment-wise in the future due to their global value. That said, Soccer cards carry very little value as they currently sit, so I'd see Boxing cards/collectibles having the most to gain in a volatile economy. Possibly even Hockey or Basketball, since those are the sports in which foreign countries are showing the biggest increase in interest in regards to the American professionalized leagues and their history.

rdwyer, what a great idea about the schools. Absolutely brilliant. There are so many worthless cards out there, but kindergarden kids aren't concerned with value. They'd just be interested in the novelty. I wonder how you'd go about making that a reality.

Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?
 

grundle20:

Very easy. Contact any Elementary school and ask if they want them. Most Principals will use them to either bribe or reward students. Spread them around to as many schools as possible. Some schools will use them in school fundraising. So you would be helping not only the school, but also the students.

Joe - sorry for the delayed reply.

No I am not in healthcare. But healthcare and education are two major economic drivers. Both are still growth fields and until they collapse, the economy will be fine. Believe me when I say this...don't be concerned with unemployment, be concerned with the country's infrastructure. You won't believe how bad the sewer and water systems are.

To get back on topic...the hobby will ebb and flow. When I came back, I was HOF rookie cards. Now I am more into what I think is "cool or interesting" and sold off the HOFers. If the 48 Leaf set is interesting to someone, then they go after it. There is something for everyone.

grundle20
 

Let's go back to 1982 and for example I'll talk about the 1949 Leaf BB cards that you collect. I was acquiring this set's scarce 2nd series
commons for $25 (Ex cards) to complete my 98-card set. Nowadays these same SP Leafs go for $500 each.

I really lucked out at a BB card show in NJ by acquiring the Leaf Satchell Paige for a cash/trade deal equalling $200. Nowadays the same
Leaf Paige goes for $10,000+.

The U.S. economy in the early 1980's, when you were born, was suffering. High unemployment and high Interest rates. Most people were
stashing their cash into Savings accounts and getting up to a 20% return. Not many were "investing" in collectibles in the early 1980's.

By the end of that decade, the hobby was doing great, as unemployment dropped and Interest rates were down around 7%.

Baseball card values levelled off from 1990 to 1998. Then, started going up again in the late 1990's to their current values. Currently, low
Interest rates have offset the failing economy and card values are certainly looking good. However, the Sub-prime Home Mortgage problem
is not going away; and, may actually get worse. This factor may affect card values in the future.

Finally, I don't see as many kids getting into BB card collecting as did in the 1980's and 1990's. Therefore, this hobby's growth is diminishing.
There are quite a few factors causing this....but, that's a story for another time.


P.S.......Sorry, I corrected you regarding the year of the Leaf cards. I collected them as a kid; and, trust me they were issued in the Spring
and Summer of 1949. I wrote an article on this set in the OLD CARDBOARD Magazine (Issue #9). You'll find it very interesting and it explains
why these cards are a 1949-only issue.


TED Z

i think about football in relation to baseball. Football is clearly the most popular sport in America and its really not even that close. Wonder if classic football cards will eventually gain in popularity quicker than baseball cards going forward.

Funny to hear everyone state their ages. I too am 34 and I don't collect much of anything from the 50's, for many of the reasons already discussed here. I collect Aaron because my parents were at the game at the old Atlanta Fulton County Stadium when he broke the HR record, so we have sort of a family connection with Aaron and the Braves in general. But other than Aaron, I don't touch 50's stuff because I never saw any of the guys play, and more importantly I don't have ANY attachment or sentimental view toward that era.

I do feel an attachment to most all N series cards because I view them more as historical pieces and also as artwork. I recognize that our country invented the game of baseball and THOSE were the guys who were there as the game was first created. That kind of historical appeal, I agree, will never go away.

In this global economy, America's middle-class will continue to be squeezed. As the standard of living in this country heads downward, the very American hobby of Baseball card collecting will almost certainly follow the same path. In American, the lower economic classes never have participated in the hobby for obvious monetary reasons. With many more projected to join their ranks in the future the hobby will largely dwindle down to affluent history buffs.

I sincerely doubt it. Football is very much an event driven thing. Most fans don't care if it's Leroy Kelly or Thurman Thomas or Ahmad Bradshaw tottin the rock...it's just the result that matters.

History in football is not nearly as appreciated. Most guys you'll find at your average NFL game have no idea who Pete Pihos or Tommy McDonald were. And there's a good reason for that.

It is absurd to compare the eras. A decent DIII team could probably play with most NFL squads of the 30s. As late as the 1960s, players as a whole were either far smaller or far slower than the modern player. It's not to say they didn't have great accomplishments...they did...or that the best then wouldn't be the best now...I think Jim Brown may well be the greatest American athlete...but we're talking about a mean.

Football players have short careers as a rule which keeps them from building a strong fan base over more than a decade.

They don't look on the field like they look on the street. They have a helmet on.

These are just a few of the reasons...I think football card collecting, for the most part, will be a lot like penny collecting. It's a great hobby but not necessarily a great investment.

the best and rarest will be ok as investments
 

i do collect and consider what I buy to be investments. I only buy Cards that are timeless and will be known 100 years from now. That means Pre 1900 and pre war. I think Cobb, Ruth, Mantle, DiMaggio, Wagner will be enduring figures always popular with adult collectors. While kids today are not huge fans I think baseball will remain part of Americana and will be collectible. I am assuming they will keep up with inflation plus some upside depending on the economy.

Adult rich folks will want that high grade Cobb regardless of their affection for modern baseball. i no longer watch games anymore but love the history of the game and collect from the era I never was part of seeing personally.

I took a quick look at the stock market during the same time frame. From mid-1982 to mid-2011, the Dow and NASDAQ went up 15-fold and 16-fold. Not much different than those 1949 Leafs which went up 20-fold.

That being said, the 1949 Leafs were still better and even if they were the same, I bet owning the cards were more fun.

We've added more than 75 million people...
 

...to our nation since 1980! Roughly 33% more people. Even a diminished interest in baseball / collecting cards in 50 years could potentially equate to a much larger market than today.

I agree Jason.:)

What about tulips? Does anyone foresee the market coming back for them?

Tulips don't have Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Mantle, etc. If tulips were in the shape of those that had accomplished great things and had been the idol of thousands they might make a comeback. I don't believe that sports collectibles are invincible and not susceptible to economic decline that plagues every market from time to time, but as long as sports are an important part of the American psyche, it is hard to imagine a total collapse of the market. However, if there was a total collpase of the market, wouldn't it be awesome to be able to get all of those items that are completely out of range for a relative bargain.

We're Safe for at Least 30 3ears
 

Here's my two (or maybe three) cents:

-I think that vintage pre-war will maintain value for a long-time to come. After all, it seems like a large percentage of us responding (myself included) are in our early 30s. We will continue to buy cards for at least 30 years to come. Plus, as we get older and our kids move out, we should have more disposable income. So I think vintage cards are safe to at least keep pace with inflation for 30+ years.

-I believe that currently produced limited numbered cards of key sets will be worth good money in the future. This is because all of us are watching these people play and there's something exciting about owning a rookie card of a player you've seen play. (specifically the Pujols rookies could continue to climb to crazy prices)

[parenthetical side note: are there more '52 Topps Mantles out there or Pujols Bowman Chrome cards (print run of 500)? I'd rather own a Pujols rookie in a heart beat because I never saw Mantle play and have seen Pujols (plus I am a Red Sox fan and wouldn't spend money on anything Yankees)

-I think cards from the 60s and 70s will stay stagnant or go down in price. Our generation never saw those guys play. We will either gravitate to the pre-war *old and rare is cool) or the modern, but why do I care about cards from the 1960s?

-I believe that the oddball and rare vintage cards will continue to rise the most. The internet makes it easy to research the esoteric and oddball cards that in the past were overlooked.

-I think the international market will also help. The World Baseball Classic should help to drive interest in international markets.

-I think soccer cards will actually rise in price, specifically cards of Pele from the 1950s. Globally soccer is the most popular sport and cards (or stickers from Panini) are part of this allure. Some day some American whiz kid will do for soccer cards what Tiger Woods did for golf cards (who woulda' thought that mid-80s Golf cards would be worth anything? Or an SI for Kids card?)

-In a nutshell, if you are investing you should be selective to only rare (true for both vintage and modern) and aim for a 7 year investment or less. If you are collecting then buy what you enjoy and know you will get more from your hobby some day than if your hobby was owning horses.

JR
 

You lost me when you tried to argue that a limited Pujols rc would be worth more than a '52 Mantle in the future...plus a bunch of other stuff you said. It's important not to project your personal preferences to the market as a whole

As much as I hate to say it, I'm bearish on the hobby over the long haul. The game itself is still popular with kids, but baseball cards have almost no hold on the imagination or interest of today's children. I suppose there's hope that Pokemon and other gaming cards or even fads like Silly Bandz might prime kids for later collecting behavior, but I see little future nostalgic attachment to baseball cards. There will always be a market, of course, but I doubt that natural population growth will offset the dwindling percentage of young people that collect.

Great Post!!!!:cool:

I'll post more later
 

But one of the most important aspects of this discussion has already been brought up -- which is the cost of the new products for anyone to enter.

Let's face it, when most of us were young, the average cost to enter by buying packs was at the most 50 cents. Now, the only inexpsnive way to enter is through packs at a place such as target or walmart.

I'll do more later -- but this is a big 1st stop into this whole isue

Rich

I agree, Rich. Another related issue is the extreme difference between worthless base sets and extremely valuable chase cards. The chase has always been a factor busting a pack--I can recall the thrill of finding a Hank Aaron instead of a Hank Allen in a new pack--but it has become so much more extreme over the years. Now, you open a pack of [expensive] cards, pull the chase cards, and throw away the base cards. For example, at the Baltimore National I busted a box of cards, pulled one chase card that I was able to flip to a dealer for the cost of the box, and walked away with a stack of worthless base cards. When we were kids and Topps was the only game in town, everyone collected the set. Even a double of a common card had its use as a trader. IMO the downfall of the modern card market was the creation of the factory set and the rise of the extreme insert card. Set buyers need not work a set and pack busters received items with no use or value that they toss aside [I think we've all seen pack busters at open tables at shows leave the base cards with the empty box and wrappers and walk away; I know I have seen that].

I agree about the factory sets. There is no point or economic advantage to buying packs now except for the chase cards. It is pretty much like buying a scratchers ticket, buying the chance and what is left is garbage. I was thinking the other day how easy it would be for Topps to not produce and sell the factory set. I am no business man, but I bet there would be a long term gain that would cover whatever short-term loss they'd have from not selling sets.

The only way I pick up cards for my son now is to buy "cast-off" boxes of commons. Packs are too expensive, and he's too young to care about insert cards anyway. And I can sometimes get a lot of jersey cards from ebay and make him a grab bag with an insert anyway.

Segmenting The Market
 

We have collected rare high-grade baseball type cards and significant
memorabilia (excluding autographs,balls and equipment) for more than three decades.

In the past 5 years,75% of our significant transactions ($1500+) have emanated from one of the top twelve baseball and sports auction firms.

On average we bid on 100-150 items per year. From 2007-2009 our winning
percentage hovered between 15% and 25%. Over the past 18 months, it has risen to nearly 40%.

We attribute this to five factors

(1) Five major collectors who have left the hobby or passed away
(2) Highly priced items tend to bring out 2nd, 3rd and 4th examples
quickly and prices drop accordingly
(3) A weak economy
(4) A number of sets and items have gone out of fashion
(5) concerns about integrity in the hobby.

Within our sphere of collecting, we believe that overall prices on many items have dropped by 15-20%. We believe the hobby still has a great future, but as prices rise, it will require sophisticated (and often wealthy) collectors to maintain or increase the price levels of many of the better items.

Over the past two years, the notable exceptions to the price drop have been

T205 PSA 8 or SGC 88
Ramly PSA 7 and PSA 8
E-96- SCG 84/PSA7 and SCG 88 and PSA 8
E-97- SCG-84/PSA 7 and SCG 88 and PSA 8
Wilson Wieners 1954- PSA 8 (NQ)

Would welcome your comments.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

Hi Bruce- good post, and welcome back!:)

Welcome Back Bruce Kotter :)
 

Your dreams were your ticket out

In all seriousness, like I say on many occassions, Bruce is absolutely correct when it comes to high end merchandise. In just about any field; the highest end merchandise is not only going to maintain it's value but will grow exponetially higher than most other items.

For the rest of us mortals, the decision is a bit harder; the odds are real good that not all the value of cards will maintain. The longer we are away from when the cards were produced; the less we care about the Jim Qualls of the world. Thus, we do need a lower Barrier To Entry (BTE) to get collectors back into the game. I'm giong to use the National as an example. I may be a couple of dollars off here but stay with my point.

In 1984, The National was hend at the no longer existing Aspen Hotel in Parsipanny NJ. There was no fee to park and admission was somewhere between $3-5. One also received a free autograph, granted the best player was Bobby Thomson with the admittance if so desired.

Nowadays, the cheapest admission to get in is $18 -- (usually Sunday about noon it does become Free) and there are advanced MVP badges which gets one double the promo sets, some free autographs, etc. I think that cost is about $150 and yes it is worth it on many levels. But just like when our pack price went from 50 cents or so in 1991 for the basic packs to whatever some of the most expenisve packs are today --- and some go past $50 -- then we are shutting out future generations which is problematic.

Yes, even when packs were cheap -- people only wanted the good cards. At the store I used to frequent in the late 80's -- people would buy the 1985 packs and if Gooden, Clemens, Big Mac, E Davis, etc did not come out -- then the rest of the cards would be left on the counter. Same principle Adam brought up about the commons from his box after he sold the "chase" card. But again, the issue is the cost of entry -- whether it is to the National or to an unopened product.

So, unless we can get future generations in at a level they can afford, the hoddy many decrease just because there are less people entering because of the price.

Regards
Rich

Not to cause trouble . . . okay, I'm causing trouble. But did anyone ever figure out who comprises the rest of "we"?

I was going to ask the very same thing. :)

Gettin back to the discussion at hand:

The last, large scale hobby participation of kids is the generation now entering their early thirties. They were the first generation to enter the hobby with an eye on investment, due to the excessive greed and shortsightedness of manufacturer's and dealer's. It has forever changed the hobby landscape. A large part of the longterm decline can be traced to how those late 80's/early 90's investments turned out, IMHO. It's still a hobby. My golf clubs are a much worse investment, yet are well worth the cost to me in terms of the pleasure I derive from their use. My card collecting hobby fits into the same basic category-- one of life's pleasant deversions. A balancing act to the serious stuff.

If the opinions of the posters here, on this topic, that fall into that early thirty-something demographic group are correct and the postwar cards have a drop in value due to their lack of interest, in favor of the prewar stuff, I'll happily jump in at the reduced prices. Although I am also not old enough to remember most of the 50's, 60's, and early 70's, I see the Topps series issued era as arguably the best of all time. I'll always feel a closer kinship to this era of early TV and classic radio than I ever could for anything from 1911. Then again, I'm not looking at it as an investment and can strictly allow my passions to rule.

In your early thirties and you have no interest in cards from the 60's and 70's because "you never saw them play?" Yet, there is interest among this age group in cards from the much more distant past? Sounds like investment still is the force leading the younger generation of card collector. It is, at the heart of the matter, resembling the cautionary tulip investment tale.

Feel free to skip to last paragraph if in a hurry... Collector's census
 

I' ve been reading this thread for a few days and had to chime in. I, like many of the others to post am in my 30's (34). Being this age I feel like I came from one of the last generations, who as small kids enjoyed the gum almost as much as the cards. I still have my old shoebox of circa 1980-1984 Topps cards, which also included 5 mysterious/AMAZING cards from a time prior to my existence, 1971. I doubt many people much younger kept and carried their collections around in shoeboxes.

I enjoyed bringing my box to school everyday, sticking cards to my desk, trading between classes, etc.. Loved my cards so much, I wrote my name on the back of most. Around 1986-1987 this changed for us. At this point we'd all upgraded to binders with plastic pages. People started coming to school with 1987 Topps Mark McGwires in sleeves, which in the Bay Area were selling for $7. It was amazing! There were a few dozen hot cards that were worth the cost of 2, 5, 10 packs. Everything changed. All of a sudden some kids (w/ generous parents) had 3 and 4 year old Mattingly, Strawberry, and Gooden rookies. One kid even had the Rated Rookie Canseco. Our innocent hobby had become something very different... BUT needless to say much more exciting at the time.

I've often wondered about the questions being asked. Will cards' demand fade over time.. specifically once my generation, the last to have collected in the same style kids had from 1914-1970, ages? Younger people may continue to be drawn by baseball's incredible history, or the obvious investment/$$$$ motivations.. But I think there'll generally lack the nostalgia of collecting with that total innocence. For me I like to think it's more that nostalgia and love for history that drives me to spend lots and lots of money now.. I have never sold a card.. Though the investment side minded side of me is always present.

ANYWAY- sorry for the long windedness.. The main point/idea I want to add, is this- I've always wondered about the demographic makeup of the current collecting population. I've come across dozens of threads surveying back variations/errors/font colors, most of which yield interesting data. I'm curious if similar data on collectors' info (age, collecting interests/goals, willingness to spend) has, or can be gathered. Most who've posted seem to think the age of collectors is a general indication of the health, and future of the hobby (more younger=better). Can we gather this data? Maybe just starting with info based on what's listed in Net54 user profiles.. Then possibly get more specific and chart.. % of different age ranges, what different ages collect or even spend in a year, will they continue, etc?? It seems like a big task, but any real data from a poll/survey could be very interesting.

Good points again, Rich, on the cost to buy packs. This I published on my web site after the last National:

Ringside was there at a corporate booth with a box-breaking promotion: break a box of the 2010 product at their table and get an entry in a drawing for signed memorabilia. I broke down one box but didn't win anything in the drawings. As for the product itself, my feelings were mixed. The box I broke had only 40 cards in it. They were very thick (4 normal cards thick each). which is really inconvenient. Most of the cards were retired fighters, which I found disappointing. Of the 40 cards I pulled (no dupes) only two--Floyd Mayweather and Miguel Cotto--were of active fighters. As for inserts, it is just gambling, plain and simple. The final pack I opened had a "1 of 1" card of Vito Antuofermo. Not even signed. I could have cared less but the guys working the table acted like I'd pulled out a golden ticket to the Wonka factory. A dealer sitting next to me breaking down boxes of Sport Kings product invited me over to his table and bought the card for more than I paid for the entire box! I will confess that I am baffled by the insert mania of the modern card market. I totally "get" autographed cards' appeal. I even see (though do not share enthusiasm for) the appeal of fighter-worn swatch cards. But the 1 of 1 and parallel set stuff is alien to me. I just do not understand the appeal of manufactured rarity. Why is a card that was intentionally made 1 of 1 and that isn't even signed and doesn't contain any fight-worn equipment swatches worth money to anyone? It seems so contrived. As for the base product, my feeling is that if collectors are going to basically throw away the base cards, the set is a failure. And what's with all the old dudes? I'd much, much rather see a set of base cards devoted to active fighters with autographs (like the 2008 Topps Co-Signers) or fight-worn materials on each "significant" card. We also need cards at base price far below the price point of the Ringside cards. At $85 a box retail for the TKO--40 cards total spread through 10 packs--and $175 for the KO--16 cards total but guaranteed at least 2 autographs and 1 memorabilia card--the issue is way too pricey to get a casual collector interested. I had to think long and hard over buying a TKO box and even then I'd not have done it but for the drawing promotion. My trepidation was financial--even the TKO boxes, which guarantee nothing by way of insert cards, cost over $2 per card.

Interesting thread. Agree with a lot of points that have been posted especially the following in no particular order.

High entry cost for kids to get started in the hobby
Demographics
Cyclical nature of the hobby
Economy
Different sports competing for the interest of today's youth. (soccer)


Personally I left the hobby in the early 1990's as it wasn't fun anymore and I refused to pay over $1.00 per pack for new cards. lol:eek:

I returned to the hobby in 2008 as cards I have always been interested in, (pre-world war II) seemed to be decent values when found on the internet.

IMHO, some things that will help the hobby..

Internet- ie message boards:)
Integrity or some form of policing in the hobby--in some ways I think that card grading helps the hobby. (I realize there are some cons to grading as well)
A marquee player who can capture the nation's attention ie Jordan in the NBA
Oddly enough a return of wealthy investors purchasing high profile cards in which the purchase makes headlines.

Just my two cents on a rainy day in my area.:)

Ian

There were 2 particular threads in 2010 dealing with the demographics of the net54 population such as age, career, education, etc.

Thanks Joe.. I'll take a look for them. I joined a couple months ago, and am slowly, but steadily reading through some of the older threads. I'll venture to guess a large drop off in the 18-29 group for vintage/pre war.

One other aspect to consider about the lack of
 

18-29 is that in many cases; these are the people who are just getting into the job world; marrying -- having kids, etc. They have not yet built up extra money for vintage cards and frankly in that age group -- they are usually more into modern cards.

Leon came to a little show my local card show owner had in his store and when I commented about how the audience at that show looked younger than at the more traditional card shows, he pointed out that the target audience was a bit different.

Yes for many reasons there are less 18-29 years old here, but that is not always a function of interest in cards; rather a function of interest in what type of cards

Rich

One big thumbs up to the hobby in decades to come
 

As long as there is baseball, the nature of the game is such that there will always be interest in its history--that history is what we hold in our hands every time we buy a Cobb, Ruth, DiMaggio, Matty, Jackson, etc. It is, as several previous posters have pointed out, a story of America, and early Americana that is both rare and significant has and will continue to gain and retain substantial value. Just a few weeks ago, I watched an episode of "Pawn Stars," where the pawn shop owner turned TV star made an offer of $125,000 for a rare John Wilkes Booth wanted poster WHICH ITS' OWNER, A COLLECTOR/DEALER OF SIGNIFICANT ITEMS OF THE ERA, TURNED DOWN!

Baseball cards, as collectibles, are not now and have not been in the past, separate and distinct from other collecting areas with regard to the forces driving collectible markets. Instead, they are merely different examples of the very same phenomenon. There have always been economic upturns and downturns, accompanied by many a prediction that "the sky is falling!" I have at least attempted to study the coin market dilligently for the last 20 years or so, because it became obvious to me that coins had already gone through many of the things our hobby later experienced (Topps and company didn't start the contrived scarcity phenomen with their insert cards, for example; Philadelphia mint officials did that with their creation of scarce to downright rare pattern coins in the 1850's, which were intended from the outset to generate a personal profit by being sold to collectors), and the same, basic collector mind-set prevailed in that forum. Coin collectors have believed that values had peaked since at least the 1930's! Yet the following examples of truly rare and significant coins well illustrate what has happened in the coin market over the last half-century or so (values taken from well-known coin dealer Jeff Garrett's book, "100 Greatest U.S. Coins," published by Whittman):

1796 "No Stars" quarter eagle ($2.50 gold piece)--1960: $2500;
1980: $20,000; 2003: $75,000; 2005: $85,000;
2008: $150,000 Note that this is a coin which is believed to have a
surviving mintage of 100-200 examples. Values given are for one in
about uncirculated condition [think ex-mint to near-mint for cards]

1802 half dime--this one is a coin where less than 50 examples are
believed to have survived (a number, which in coins, is deemed to
warrant being categorized as extremely rare)--1960: $2000;
1980: $25,000; 2003: $75,000; 2005: $100,000;
2008: $150,000 Values given are for an example in extremely fine
(think EX+ in cards).

It might be interesting to note that these two examples were picked entirely at random from the book, simply by opening it to the pages where they were discussed without forethought. It is also noteworthy that the advancing average age of collectors, and a seeming inability to attract younger participants to collecting, has been a source of major concern in that field for at least 20 years!

Coins also went through the equivalent of our late '80's, early '90's era, where cards like the '89 Upper Deck Griffey Jr., '90 Leaf Frank Thomas, etc., which were actually quite common, soared in book value, based primarily on speculative investing. Only in coins, the speculative but quite common items were the darlings of the late '50's to early '60's, like rolls of 1950D nickels (which went from $100 per roll to as much as $1300, then fell back to the $300 range), or later on, common date and mintmark Morgan silver dollars, graded and slabbed in extremely high mint grade (can anyone say modern PSA 10 cards?).

The point is, of course, that rare and significant items have an inherent ability to withstand changing trends and economic times and conditions--always have, always will. It's simply part of the human psyche that these things are highly desireable and thus valuable.

But what if I'm wrong? Can the bottom fall out of the market? I think the answer to that one lies in the reasons for the downturn, but would suggest that barring an ability on the part of counterfeitors to utilize modern technology to duplicate original vintage cards to the point that their product was truly indistinguishable from the original, what would happen is that there would be a lot of people like me and others who are members of this board that would be delighted to jump back into the market to pick up items like E107 HOF's, 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruths, 1907 W600 Cobbs and 1910 T210 Jacksons at a mere fraction of their current values! So many, in fact, that there wouldn't be much of a fall in values to be had, for very long. As the bottoming out occurred and was followed by a resurgence as the market picked up steam, new collectors/investors would be drawn in, and it wouldn't be long before rare and significant items were booking at their old values.

As I've posted before, my wife, upon accompanying me to one of the Strongsville shows in the early '90s, thought $5,000 was too much to pay for a 1916 M101-4 Ruth rookie in near-mint/mint condition. Undoubtedly, she believed an old piece of cardboard with ancient ink on it would never be more valuable than it was at that time. The flaw in that line of thinking is that we collectors are not buying an old piece of cardboard with ink configured thereon to present Mr. Ruth's image--what we are buying is part of baseball's storied, glorious past; indeed, as best we can accomplish it, WE ARE BUYING BABE RUTH HIMSELF, just as purchasers of ancient Roman coins are buying a part of that empire, a still-preserved portion of days of glory and world dominance that we cannot help but see as utterly fascinating.

Just my $2.50 worth!

Best regards, and what a great thread!

Larry

Larry, incredibly well said..

Larry- I've always been wary of judging the soundness of any collectibles market by looking at the prices of extreme rarities. Most collectors don't buy 1802 half dimes; they more likely are buying coins, cards, or anything in the $50-250 range. In fact, I'll bet 90% of the transactions are for these moderately priced items. Studying those might give a more accurate picture of the strength or weakness of the market.

Couple of more things
 

Both Larry and Barry are correct

The very hiigh end material is not always indiciative *sic* of the market however, when the high end stuff goes up in price and gets noticed then in many cases the rest of the material goes up as well

2nd --- yes most of the trading is obviously done on a lower end, since we're talking about rarities, they just don't show up that often

And one other issue to go with why we don't have many 18-29 year old here (in addition, usually at that age we don't have the perspective that we gather a biit later)

The other issue is that beginning with the true movement of the hobby to a focus on adults after the BB Strike of 94-85, there ended up being an insane growth on number of products.

That culminated in 2004 when we had approximately 90 products issues or one ever 4 days. About 20 years earlier -- we really had maybe 5-6 major products for a year which also allowed collectors to go backwards in time easier.

That's another story for another day -- but the current monopoly in baseball cards by Topps is not neccessarily a bad thing because it controls the number of products issued. If, let's say Panini was granted a licence again to print BB cards --- then there would also have to be a limit on combined products from the 2 companies.

This is a different story, but we'll go more into this later as well

Rich

i have to jump on the money bandwagon one of the reasons why i do not buy cards in packs today is the huge cost...and remembering when i used to but packs get that great card currently worth $50..i keep it and 4 months later the fad has passed and i am sitting with a piece of junk that no one wants..i still have tons of shaq rookies....this being said i have always loved old collectibles and for my money i would rather own the $450 1953 mantle than the 450 $1 shaq rookies i want to throw away...that is why i collect the older cards, i was burned to much on packs..and now do i rally want to spend $5 a pack??????

Yes, Larry, very well put. Additionally, after looking through the posts and giving a "thumbs up or thumbs down" vote, you were also in the minority in feeling that the hobby will continue to see an upward trend.

Thumbs up in the minority
 

Great! That means increased opportunity in the short term! As well-respected coin dealer/proflic author Q. David Bowers once said about the 1936 Cincinnati commemorative half dollars (a not really rare item, with a total mintage of 5,005 sets), after they had taken a cyclical downturn in the early days of their collectability in 1939 from $50.00 per three-coin set (one example from each of the three mints) to $15.00, that was the time to buy them--a nice, hand-picked MS-65 set subsequently did quite nicely, appreciating fairly gradually over the years until it soared to $7,000 in 1987, at the time of a speculative boom. A set currently lists at $2175 raw, unslabbed. And by the way, Barry, the more common but still truly collectable coins also went up, but at a lower rate over the last 20 years, in direct proportion to their surviving mintages and popularity of their series. Sort of like '60's stars in PSA 8--nice and collectible, but a lot of them out there. ECON 101 in action. These types of cards will probably demonstrate the characteristics of their counterparts in coins, and be more cyclical in value, which is allright too. Just be aware of their price history.

The lesson I learned from the coin analogy was to buy rare, and buy significant (HOF'ers, and preferably upper echelon HOF'ers). There are newly emerging cards that fit this bill, and not just those that are currently at the top end of the market--does anyone think that the last Lections Ruth that sold will set the high water mark for this card for all time? If it does, then the one I bought for $6200 some years back from Mastro is in trouble. If they do think that, then how do they explain a 1933 Buttercream Ruth going for $111,000 at one of the REA auctions a few years ago? Broken down into the simplest terms, each of these cards have two things going for them: They're Babe Ruth, and they are extremely rare! IMHO, the 1907 Dietsche Fielding Cobb, barring a discovery of a hoard of them, is still in the process of emerging into a well-respected and significant great rarity, as are several of his other true rookie postcards (love the Wolverine News portrait, but haven't run across one at a time when finances would have permitted its purchase, in light of other recent buys). I see great longterm futures for each of these cards, and others like them. Hell, the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth was just emerging a bit over 20 years ago, when it might have been easy to simply dismiss its ability to draw collectors' dollars out of their bank accounts as a fad--after all, the '33 Goudey's were where the real Ruths were found then. Ditto cards like the '23-'24 Exhibit Ruth for prospective exponential growth, where the toughest part should not presently be buying but finding one (although I might be surprised at the price, should one come on the market)!

Look outside the envelope, think outside the box, and analyze and imagine what can likely be, rather than simply looking at what the market presently is (my philosophy is definitely that the glass is half full, rather than half empty--I've found that I've won quite a few court cases that otherwise would have been lost through abandonment thinking that way). But really, all value concerns aside, sometimes you just have to buy what you like, and those are some of the best buys you'll make in your heart. And if your purchases substantially increase in value and provide significant financial security for very rainey days, all the better! Immensely interesting thread.

Best wishes,

Larry

Who takes the grading fee hit and how long can it go on?
 

(graded cards suck.....raw is the way to go)[/QUOTE]

Great comments here. While were discussing this, I was thinking of the thousands of graded cards that sell for a few dollars each. I see that the lowest PSA price is 5.00 (and shipping) for 100 or more cards valued under $100.00 each. Look on ebay or at a show and you'll see decent graded cards such as 50's-70's commons/hi's, stars selling and sometimes not selling for a few dollars.
Who's taking the huge hit on the grading fees? How long can it go on with people losing money like this?
I like PSA but at this point I feel it's just a nice expensive holder for cards!

Bill - I think you're right in many instances. Think about WHY PSA allows cards valued under $100 bucks to be graded for five bucks. I mean, the market for the people buying cards under $100 bucks, how much of a margin is there really for a dealer to buy a raw, get it graded, and *pray* that with some stroke of luck that card comes back a 6 or higher. Any card with a value under $100 dollars, at the $5 grade PLUS insurance and shipping they make you pay, I mean, geez, you just ate up at least 7-9% of the card's value when it's under $100 to begin with!

Clearly, the exceptions are getting rare, desired cards graded. Why? Again, the price of grading those cards are not 7-9% of the value. Heck, grading cards like that could be half a percent or 1% of value, or even LESS. Clearly, having an amazingly valuable card graded for the "high rollers" of the hobby is worth it's weight.

That's my two cents - it's a question of grading as a factor of card value. If those mathematics come to 5% of card price or higher, forget it, you need to sell at a margin that's not worth the time, cost and effort.

Great thread! I think many of us will pass the love for the history to our kids. I love 50's and 60's cards because my dad did. I am doing everything I can to get my kids into it as well!

Chris, I think that is terrific! Hope you have tons of fun together!

Sincerely,

Larry

My mother has decided that she wants to sell things on ebay as a hobby, she retired recently. She is into Hummel spoons, antique jewlery, glass type art, etc. So I suggested she search around to see what type of things are getting bid on and that may give her an idea of what people seem to be interested in. She is very new to ebay, so as an example, I told her to look at T206 baseball cards.

She called me back later and said " out of every type of item I searched for, NOTHING was being bid on like those old baseball cards you told me to look at"....:D

Clayton, great post! My mom is into amber/antiques and her auctions usually end with 1 or 2 bids. Maybe we just don't appreciate how popular our hobby is!

agreed
 

agreed.

Popular hobby = addiction = popular hobby = addiction :)