VCP or SMR?
 

I have always used the SMR as my price guide but I've seen posts on this forum talking about Vintage Card Prices and would like opinions on which one everyone thinks is the true barometer on vintage values. Thanks!

:confused:

I don't think either is a "true" barometer of value. VCP is closer to reality when it comes to previous prices realized. But like a lot of data, the worth of the numbers is often dependent on the person who's doing the interpreting.

for pre-war, SMR is terribly inaccurate for most issues. As an example, you'd be hard pressed to find a PSA 1 Joe Jax CJ at even twice the SMR number.

SMR = POS

I think that was Einstein's Theory of Price Inaccuracy...

I have never...
 

...thought SMR was worth the paper it was printed on. At least with VCP you can actually get a record of prior sales.

VCP is by far more accurate.

Why doesn't SMR update it's prices based on auction results?

Because that would require work.

VCP does no record BIN's on ebay for some reason, but SMR is pure garbage.

Maybe bobby can confirm but I think VCP is now recording all BIN's since ebay made the store listing and bin's the same.

SMR is one persons theory, VCP is recorded reality.
How you interpret that reality determines how effective it is, but the facts are there.
On one particular set I was following closely, one card in one grade suddenly shot thru the roof in SMR. Sure enough, an advertiser had it in his auction a month later. Thrown them straight into the trash ever since.

choice
 

vcp

hands down.

best,
barry

To me, VCP is like a CARFAX Report - not perfect, but has most of the reported information, gives some peace-of-mind and is a worthwhile barometer.

SMR is like those monthly tabloids at the supermarket checkouts that tell you things like Oprah secretly gave birth to an alien child.

Vintage Card Prices > Sports Market Report

What are people's thoughts on Beckett's Graded Card Investor magazine?

I use it, as it seems to be much more accurate than SMR.

Steve

You know that this will now be reported as "true."

VCP will go up and down as cards are sold.
SMR is good to carry around if no access to computer but prices dont vary the same way as cards are sold.

I say VCP, Cardminer, and card pricer combined. Card pricer tracks raw cards also.

Funny how many people say to use VCP when some that are selling quote SMR for prices because they are higher, or VCP when its higher. :D:D

We have been recording BIN sales for a long time now and now all since eBay did away with the stores.

VCP records the BIN prices from both fixed price ebay listings and auction format BIN listings?

Good question, Jeff. I didn't think that VCP included the eBay "fixed price" BIN sales either. Does it include that now too, Bobby? ...and if so, is that a recent change?

Include me in as one who would like to know as well. Bobby can you please confirm what is and what isn't recorded, and why??

We record everything that is set on a time schedule and has an ending date either fixed or chinese style format. Our only issue is that in the BIN, FIXED or BO posts to VCP after the time set by the seller expires and not the actual day it sold. This is due to the eBay system and there is nothing we can do about it.

So, are you saying that ALL of the BINs on eBay are recorded - regardless of the format - and that it is only a matter of a potential "date of sale" inaccuracy that gets recorded?

Personally, having the exact date of sale isn't as critical to me (as long as it is reasonably close). Making sure that all of the eBay BINs get included in the data is much more important.

Bobby, what Brian said. It can't be made any clearer than that. Without these prices included your data is not accurate.

"Personally, having the exact date of sale isn't as critical to me (as long as it is reasonably close). Making sure that all of the eBay BINs get included in the data is much more important".

How do you determine value of a PSA graded set?
 

Just curious, when i see either a PSA graded set, or a collection of PSA graded cards, how do you determine the value of that set? Do you simply add all the cards together based on SMR price? Do you factor in the grading fee ($10 per card)? Any additional premium to tag on the item because the set is complete?

All eBay store listings have a time schedule and an ending date. Most of them are set to renew on a new time table.

I don't believe they report sets or group of cards, which is a good thing, assigning values to each card would be way too subjective.

We only report single graded card auctions.

and this?

Trying to interpret this
 

to the simplest terms

The role of VCP is to record all transactions and leave the interpretation of the data up to you

The role of SMR is to analyze sales and give you an opinion of what an average sale(s) of a card in a specific grade are.

Thus, the goals of the two groups are different. VCP, by nature, appeals to the more educated collector as they have learned how to read data and make interpretations.

The goal of SMR is to be a starting poing in discussions based on their analysis of market sales and I believe SRP's of their dealers. Thus, they do appeal to a slightly less sophisticated collector.

Will either way ever be perfect; no -- but remember it depends on what your goal is as a buyer of a seller

Regards
Rich

i like to use ebay completed listings as a guide as well. i know for rare cards this info may not be available, but for cards that show up on ebay more frequently this is also a great (and quick) way to get some pricing. i know vcp records the data, but i can stay on ebay and move to the next card without surfing through another website. of course, for rare cards, vcp is the best format.

So VCP is unable to record price data from fixed price listings? That is a shame, since these types of sales make up such a large percentage of transactions on ebay.

If VCP can somehow figure out a way to get around this, it should try to post all the information available, and not be selective.

I'm not sure why this information is so important. Most fixed price listings are overpriced anyway and are purchased by those who don't want to be patient and wait for an auction.

If the card is so rare that there is no information on VCP, Then I don't know how one fixed price sale can help determine the market value.

SMR = Pravda

a sale is a sale... and all sale info should be reported to get an accurate idea of the market value of a card. if you only report selective data... that is not a true idea of market value.

Agreed. "Overpriced" is subjective.

Sociologically, it's always fascinating to me how people are much quicker to respond critically to a post then to read it carefully.

It's not one fixed-price sale. It's lots of fixed-price sales. And it doesn't really matter why someone BIN'd an overpriced sale - impatience or whatever. That's as totally legitimate a data point as when someone that patiently shops, snipes, and wins classic ebay auctions.

Omitting fixed-price sales definitely skew the numbers. Many hobbyists are using online pricing services to draw a line in the sand and say "not a penny more" when they buy cards. This affects the market by putting a damper on prices because many subscribers believe that online pricing numbers reflect "true market". The more true market transactions left out, the less "true market" the numbers become. But people mistakenly rely on them.

I'm curious too as to where the line is drawn in price reporting. I had always understood that it was auction only and used that info as part of my overall thinking in a transaction. But I think somewhere Bobby said/mentioned that they now include fixed-price sales, so I also am interested if this has changed.

To me, if it's a reliable number, it should be reported if the electronic gathering process is reasonable as to burden (on VCP, cardpricer, etc) and reliability (not subject to widespread manipulation by parties to the reported transactions).

Joann

PS - Rich Klein's post above about the difference between SMR and online price guides is completely awesome. What a great distillation of the issue. I wish more people would take the "sophisticated collector" audience of the online guides to heart, understand the responsibility to interpret the reports, and not take the numbers as hard fast gospel on exact value. Nice post Rich!

You would rather have no information for rare cards than information for fixed price sales?

Most people would rather have more information available at their hands. They can then take that information and weigh the information as they deem appropriate.

Matthew. This information is very important because the sole purpose of VCP is to record all sales of cards at auction. That's what the subscriber pays for. If their data is missing fixed priced auction items it's not an accurate level. I have purchased many cards at the fixed price level which were not over priced as I'm sure many on here have as well. Those transactions need to be included on VCP and not held hostage with those items that are outrageously listed. Those so called overpriced examples, (yes, there is alot of them) won't be selling anyway so your only keeping out the fair fixed priced BIN's that are actually turning in the market. Bobby if your listening, how doesn't this make sense??

Vcp
 

A sale is a sale, whether it may be a "overpriced" BIN or not. VCP users are fairly astute I would think. The site offers detail about what transactions comprise the "composite" average for a certain card right? If you have a card that is routinely trading the 5-600$ range and there is one BIN transaction for $1500 that skews the average most collectors/buyers will discount the legitimacy of that while formulating their buy price, but it is still a legitimate transaction and needs to be reported. The site does need to make very clear the difference between ebay auctions and BINS. To a much smaller extent don't we already do this when we back out the Buyer's Premium from the auction house's reported sales?

I guess your right, I was just stating my opinion. I have hit the BIN too when I see a fair price. I usually knew the price was fair because it resembled previous auctions or whats current on VCP. The BINs either resemble SMR, VCP, completed listings or are overpriced. I personally don't care. To me the most important info is in there.

Just not all of it though. Bobby, feel free to jump in.

Tony
 

I think you are right on and you are not getting accurate info or you moneys worth if all the info isn't there.

If you are going to offer a service for a premium you need to be through.

Bobby -listen to you customers, its good buisness.

But is the most important info there? I think VCP is very helpful, but how much of the market is it reporting? It isn't reporting raw or groups already. We can make general blanket statements about overpriced BINs because it is and easy target, but do we have know what percentage of single card graded sales are BINs? If it is 10% then I am OK with VCP, if it is 50% I have serious concerns. I have no idea what percentage of sales it is actually reporting, and this fact worries me.

I'm ok as long as they report the net54 B/S/T sales :p

Now that's a must!! :D

Can someone point me to the post where Bobby said they don't record fixed price/BIN sales?

:confused:

Matt,

Post #23 is confusing, at best.

I interpret post #23 to mean that VCP does record fixed price formats. Their only problem is the data won't record the date of sale accurately. If a BIN or BO is listed for 30 days and sells on day 6 the pricing data will not transfer to VCP until the full 30 days have passed.

Tim - that's how I read it as well, though Jim, I agree it should have been worded more clearly.

Tim, Matt,

I don't disagree. The problem is the wording. He should just say "We do record ALL BIN transactions, but there is a delay, on Ebay's end, in getting us that info."


Anyone assuming that I know what a "chinese style format" is, is starting off on the wrong foot.

He said it "posts to VCP," that seemed pretty clear, no?

He said "We record everything that is set on a time schedule..." so BIN items that do not have a scheduled end date but are sold are NOT recorded, like the example below. That's how I interpreted what Bobby said. (and yes, it was kinda cryptic)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1931-New-York-Gi...item5886233210

So, all those types of sales are not included then? I'd imagine that would be quite a large quantity of sales that are not represented.

Bobby, I am a believer in your service, a subscriber, and an active user. Can you comment on whether these type of BIN sales are going to be included in your service and when? Thank you in advance for your response.

And to answer a question two of you sent via PM, VCP also includes all fixed price & auction style sales from GrandSlamBids.com as well.

Actually Bobby is the only one that can answer the question at hand here. He's chimed in briefly a couple times, but in my opinion has not answered the question clearly. In fact a couple of his responses have me reading his post more than once because I'm left scratching my head. Bobby, pop in spend a few minutes, (at least) and give us a detailed "clear breakdown" of how fixed auctions with a BIN are in fact recorded on VCP. Many of your customers are clearly needing clarification here. Thank you......

I took Bobby to mean that if an auction, (1, 3, 5, 7 or 10 day) includes a BIN and someone does the BIN and thus closes the auction early, this information is included in VCP. EBay store listings are not included, (they can continue to relist so there is no end date). This is my take, but I also admit that I do not know what the chinese style format is.

VCP has also stopped reporting some of the auction houses information. If they do not take corrective action, it will be reduced to an eBay 7-10 auction reporting.

Actually a normal eBay auction is not a normal auction. There is not an opportunity for someone who is out bid at the close to raise their bid. With the sniping, it is more like a sealed bid auction. One of the points to consider is that not all eBay user know that sniping services even exist.

It sure seems
 

with the way Ebay has changed over the last twelve months, if non-auction style BINs are not recorded in VCP, then there is a significant number of sales that are occurring but not reflected in VCPs database.

This is all the more potentially troubling, given that fixed-price [non-auction] BINs typically reflect higher sales prices than many counterparts in the auction format.

You have to excuse my untimely responses currently I am in Seoul Korea so there is a bit of a time difference.

Chinese style is any auction that is set with a time format so our system knows when the ending time is to finalize the transactions. You see this for many fixed price auctions, Best offers and Buy it now as well as for the standard type auction. When there is no end time associated with the item we have no way of knowing whether that card sold or not using the API system set up by eBay. The only way to find out if a card has sold or not with no time limit is by having a person physically view the pages and that is not very doable.

Even if eBay doesn't support it in their API, you might could write some code to parse the Completed items pages.

If we did that then we would be in violation of our agreement with eBay and can lose our licenses.

Surely, Bobby
 

Surely you can work with Ebay to find a way to capture these sales without violating some agreement. It would be in Ebay's advantage to have a complete set of data.


Just took a random sampling of the last 200 completed items with SGC in the title and priced between $50 and $150. 75 items did not sell, 93 items sold via auction and were recorded by VCP, and 32 items sold via stores and will not be picked up by VCP. That's roughly 25% of completed sales from a small window sample (SGC cards between $50-$150).

Here are some specific examples that are not recorded in VCP and speak to the need for changing the business model:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Charle...item334abe5027

T205 Phillippe: sale price $155
VCP Average for PSA 5: $76.50 (last sale 6/13/10)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-E96-Phila-C...item1e5c8bba2b

E96 Konetchy: sale price $90
VCP average: $71.67 (last sale 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1921-E121-80-Car...item563c68832b

E121 Collins: sale price $275
VCP Average: $225 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-T206-Ty-Cob...item335a065d94

T206 Cobb Bat On: sale price $800
VCP Average: $438 (last sale 2008)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-E91-C-A-Car...item2c54886a72

E91 Wagner: sale price $800
VCP Average: $492.20 (last sale 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Fred-C...item5883805f9f

T205 Clarke: sale price $140
VCP Average: $100.25 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-1911-T206-T...item2ead128d34

T206 Cobb Red: sale price $580
VCP Average: $457 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1934-1936-Diamon...item2ea9c1a03b

1935 Diamond Star Hornsby: sale price $225
VCP Average: $133.50 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/E94-Napoleon-Laj...item4ceff1b638

E94 Lajoie: sale price $1150
VCP Average: no sale history in SGC 30 or PSA 2

I understand. Is the problem that the query you send to eBay via the webservice API call requires an ending date in order to return results?

Marc thanks so much for uploading the data above. This does prove that there is a huge amount of auctions being excluded and not represented on VCP which does in fact make the overall final value incorrect on the product which is registered on VCP. Ebay's selling format has changed greatly since VCP was originally introduced, but it now seems that VCP needs to find a way to follow suit so it picks up these auctions. With so many auctions now on Ebay listed in sellers stores with fixed BIN's in my opinion VCP is missing upwards of 30%+ of all card transactions on Ebay today. Folks that's alot when you take into consideration just how many cards are listed per day, per week, per month!!!

Tony -- all the moreso given the fact that many of the fixed BIN sales via Ebay stores transact at significantly greater prices than they might fetch via the auction format. It gives buyers a false sense of valuation, when they enter a potential transaction with the notion "I won't pay more than the latest VCP price", if that price is artificially depressed because it is missing a number of store sales that happened at higher valuations.

Perhaps VCP should be renamed VCPS (Vintage Card Pricer Sometimes).

The only thing worse than no data, is partial data...

So, if I understand correctly...

The accusation is that a significant portion of eBay BIN sales are not making it into VCP data and that these data points conceivably represent prices that are "higher than average." In so doing, VCP would be inadvertantly skewing the data downward by reporting what is likely the midrange and lower end of sales. Thus, the more people use VCP as a "top end" for what they are willing to pay, the more it would contribute a downward spiral of prices. Is that a fair summary of what is being discussed?

Obviously, people's behavior is it is not Bobby's or VCP's fault, but if incomplete data leads to inaccurate "average prices" and people are led to believe that it is accurate, then there is a bigger underlying problem.

So if ebay will not play ball and allow the non-timed sales to be captured, what is the solution? Is some data better than no data?

Even if Bobby could collect the fixed priced sales with no end time his data would still be just be a fraction of the number of sales for any given card in the market. I use his service and realize that it's not every sale of every card, but in most cases it is enough information to make the service of value to me.

Wow, you really changed my mind with this one...

However, I really don't need to know how much Levi sold his cards for :D

yes.

My thoughts exactly.

I say yes IF everyone understands it's partial.

But only with a clear, simple and complete understanding of what's included and what's missing.

People think they are getting VCP but are unknowingly getting VCPS...

But why wouldn't eBay "Play ball"?
I can understand if they wanted no information changing hands, like some auction houses.
But they allow the release of data via auctions, so really why do they care
if some lots are sold via fixed prices?

I don't think eBay will not necessairly "play ball", but it is a general part of their user agreement. Now the information I have is dated, but when I looked into setting up an automated price retrieval service off of eBay completed items (mainly for my own information before VCP or CardPricer existed) I read their user agreement. From my recollection, eBay owned the data and you were not allowed to use that data or harvest it without using their API to avoid people writing programs to get the information for free. It sounds like the API needs some updating to get all of the information. I am sure this is not a problem for only baseball cards. If VCP were my company I would be on the phone with my account manager finding out when I can access this information through the API and if I couldn't figuring out a workaround so I could do it in a licensed manner.

Is VCP still only using the past 12 months of prices to calculate their average VCP value? I know they changed over to doing it that way a couple of years ago and I always thought that was kind of a mistake.

It seemed to unjustly lower the averages on many of the very lightly traded cards (cards that sell only once a year or so).

It also really lowered the average value of the common PSA 8 and 9 type cards from the 1970's and 80's when eBay sellers started listing them for .99¢ and charging $5 or $6 for shipping ... to recoup the normal $3 to $5 they were getting before on those same cards. Although now with the trend of free shipping, I'd imagine that may be leveling out again.

I guess I just wonder if VCP's method of only using the past 12 months prices to come up with their average, during what has arguably been a year or two of dropping prices for many card issues, has in any way lead to a more drastic decrease in prices? And will it artificially slow any rebound of the market (by about a year) whenever they do start moving up in price again?

Just a thought.

Mike