Wow - Modern Card
 

I was just chatting with a friend who mentioned to me he thought this card would end over $20k.
http://cgi.ebay.com/2010-BOWMAN-CHRO...QQcmdZViewItem

I think it's good every once and a while to get a wake-up call like that about other parts of our hobby. I couldn't fathom spending that on a card just made a few months ago, but apparently many people would.

I've got two words for the buyer...
 

Brien Taylor

Yes, but would you trade your entire collection for it? :D

I wonder what this went for 8 years ago. Mark Prior

http://cgi.ebay.com/01-DONRUSS-ELITE...item56380b3cbc

There is a great line buried in the description by this seller.


"All cards are Nmt/Mt Or better unless professionally graded."



I guess that comment might sway a few votes in the grading poll. :D

I don't understand the concept of manufactured scarcity. Who cares??

Let's see.....

David Clyde.....Mark Fidrych.....Mark Prior.....Kerry Wood.....Joe Jay.....Herb Score.....Todd Van Poppel.....Ben McDonald.....

Hopefully not, but you just never know.


Steve

Ive been watching it for a couple days now, Collector Weekly says it now has "880 watchers" on eBay.

Actually 5 out of the top 6 "Most Watched" cards are 2010 Strasburg's

I could amass a fairly decent collection for that type of money.

A few words to the buyer.... A fool and his money are soon parted! To the seller, congrats on winning a ridiculous lottery!

It's all hyped. Who know, perhaps there are shill biddings

Totally unreal, by my way of thinking. Even assuming Strasberg becomes a phenom (and since I share in Nats season tix, I certainly hope he does), he will sign so many cards during the next five years that I can't imagine this one retaining its value.

Perhaps it's too soon to track re-sales of high-priced insert cards with manufactured scarcity (I recall a LeBron card that sold for a small fortune), but I would suspect that their values decrease significantly over time.

Mark

Whatever this one sells for will likely be the highest price it ever achieves. It can only go down from here.

Hell, even if he became the next Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Pedro Martinez or Tom Seaver, I can't really see the justification.

God forbid he only turns into a Don Sutton, Jack Morris or Fergie Jenkins.

I agree....over the years it was fun to speculate on upcoming talent and getting something from them early, but if you have to spend 10K for something , that is not getting him early.

Unfortunately, I have learned my lesson and if I want to add a memorabilia piece or autographed piece to my collection, they HAVE to be in the HOF or headed there.....very few exceptions. I once passed on Gale Sayers at an autograph show for Erict Rhett, TB...........what a dum dum.

GIDDY UP!

It isn't even his rookie card, I looked on ebay and he has cards from 2008. :confused::confused:

e.g., http://cgi.ebay.com/STEPHEN-STRASBUR...item335d573cdd

I don't think this has a happy ending for whoever wins this. :eek:

Last Night
 

Saw highlights of him pitching last night in the minors: wicked stuff! Ah, no on the card. Ugly card too!:eek:

Sounds like the second coming of Gregg Jeffries:)

Hey
 

Hey, look at the upside, you'd get $162 eBay bucks if you win :)

1 of 1 and they can't even get the centering perfect? That thing should grade an 11, step it up Topps.

Hasn't this piece of crap already been talked about (and moved by Leon) from this VINTAGE card forum? Honestly wouldn't pay more than $5 for it...is this being advertised by the seller in these forums?

Once ever few years these cards come around, its fun to watch the bidding.

Even the non 1/1 Strasburg cards (there are others too) are getting good bids.

Wonder if "Merkle" (K.O.) wins this shiny 1/1..... he has been known to win some of these newer "hype" cards in the past. Like that Gordon thing a couple years back.

PS there are 968 watchers now, how many of them are you guys :)

Can you say CLOSE MINDED. Quite an infantile display if you ask me.

If you wouldn't pay more than $5 for it, that would be pretty dumb considering it will sell for over $10,000.

Speaking of phenoms....

Here is a card that just ended, this 17 year old kid has not even been drafted yet... But he will be a great player Im sure...
http://cgi.ebay.com/2010-Bowman-Chro...mZ270579237416


if you dont know Bryce Harper, read about him

Sports Illustrated article
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...6215/index.htm

Strasburg wasnt even drafted out of HS!
Harper left HS 2 years early to get Drafted (next month, he will be #1).
I like the part where "he went 12 for 12 with 11 HRs and a Double"

Pretty crazy, but I would rather have that card than many of the high grade vintage PSA 9's and 10's which are trimmed. A 1965 Topps leader card sold PSA 10 for $120,000+ a few years back. That is MUCH crazier to me than the Strasburg.

Maybe the buyer will post it here, ask for opinions, say how much he's going to enjoy it, then consign it a week later to an auction house.

.....but please, not before he has it graded!

Us pre-war collectors like to feel we call the shots in the hobby. But probably 80% or more of hobbyists are exclusively shiny.....and that's where the money's at. What's interesting to me though is that most shiny collector's I've communicated with are more open minded and appreciative of pre-war than the other way around.

Did you type a few too many zeroes? $120,000 is crazy!

Ichieh, sell that Rose and go for it, bro'. :D:D

orioles,

That is probably because a lot of people who collect pre-war cards have gotten BURNED in the past 20 years by the shiny crap. They have learned their lesson by LOSING money.

Wait 10 to 20 years and see how many of the collectors of these shiny cards are STILL collecting and then see WHAT they are collecting. My guess is that a LOT will have STOPPED collecting because they got burned by the hype and overproduction of the cards.

Imagine this Strasburg card selling for $15,000 dollars and then a year later it selling for $10,000 (or less). Imagine if a "regular" collector (not a guy like Keith Olbermann) paid the big bucks for the card thinking he would be able to sell it for a higher amount later.

It doesn't (or shouldn't, any way) take too many bad experiences like that for a collector to get burned out and either quit collecting altogether or switch to something that is enjoyable and at least holds its value better (pre-war cards, for example).

David

Zzzzzzzzzz.......zzzzzzzzzzz

Good point. I love all cards, vintage and new. It's amusing how "snobbish" some vintage collectors can be. They act as if new stuff is just trash, even when a card from 2010 can pull $10,000. That's impressive to me, not crazy. I'll take vintage graded HOFers all day long over that Strasburg, but I'm not going to sit here and act like it's not amazing that it will get over 10-grand.

Two words for anyone over 40 years old: Joe Charboneau.

There's nothing wrong with collecting new issues, and there's nothing wrong with someone paying $ 10,000 for a Strasburg card.

If, however, the buyer is motivated to buy the card (in whole or part) as an investment, then he hopes it will increase in value over time. I suspect that high-priced insert cards, as a rule, decrease in value over time, but that's just a guess. I would be curious to see any data regarding re-sale of these kinds of cards.

I do open some shinies now and then, if i pulled that card, i wouldn't enjoy it... id enjoy the ridiculous amounts of cash alot more, after i sold it of course.

i generally dont sell my cards, but with shiny ones, i never get too attached to most of them. With the exception of my UFC cards and my Peyton collection.

I would say 80% is too low
 

It's probably 90-95 percent shiny; and when you go to a show, that is the only time that you see a larger percentage of vintage collectors. And of course, the catalog auctions are heavily vintage as well

my understanding and view
 

Rich- My understanding and view is that you are closer with the 95% than the 90%, as far as shiny to vintage. I would guess we (pre war) hold less than a 5% stake in collector population. However, I would guess we have more staying power.:eek: (almost went for a joke but better not)

Yes, those collectors of shiny cards have no soul!

Leon, I couldn't imagine what joke you would have went for....

From the scan that card looks like one of those early 1970s era Kelloggs 3-D cards.

Conspiracy theory - no, it's not the magic bullet theory, it's much more simple than that. Bowman (or who ever owns that company now) is placing shill bids on this card in an effor to draw attention to the auction so that people think this garbage is actually worth something. Future sales driven by mindless idiots purchasing their other products (in hopes of finding the next $20K card in a $4 pack) is the driving force behind the shill bids.

If you don't hear from me anymore then that means that the Bowman folks have sent someone over to my house to extinguish the source of their exposure... gonna be a good day... only 630AM and I'll be working on a third Martini...

Seriously, that is embarrassing they didn't get the centering right.

I would guess that there are a few test versions of this card floating around in some Bowman employee's desk, it wouldn't be a fun day for the ultimate recipient of this card if some of those surfaced...

tidbit: no #1 overall draft pick has ever won a cy young award.

When these cards come up I always think about the guy who traded/sold his whole collection in pursuit to pick up every Rick Ankiel RC numbered to 100. It was the hot card at the time and going for decent money, I wonder if he is still working on them ?

My $0.02 worth of pop-psychology for the day - Im going to guess (and hope) that the buyers of such items are taken in by the allure of the card, the potential of the player and the relative hobby status that comes with owning one of these "it" cards. I dont think many of these cards go to cool, calculated business men who see it as an upside-potential, retirement-setting money maker. Cool calculated business men know that anything (anywhere - Im looking at you gold buyers of the 70s, certain IPO stock buyers of the 80s, house flippers of the 00s) that has been hyped has already lost it's investment potential.

Well, I guess the upside for the lucky buyer is.........even if he were to put it in his bicycle spokes, it would still be the highest graded card of it's type, extant.


;)

Fake Scarcity is all it is. Make everyone pay big bucks to try and pull the miracle. That price is ridiculous. I do hope the kid makes it tho, and I hope to see him pitch on tv at some point this year.

Maybe its my age, and my two stages of pack opening. As a real little one starting in 69, and playing the scratchoff games w my friend in 1970 packs, and then trading the coins in 71. Later, in 78 when I got back into it, playing whiffle ball and riding my bike w my friend Chris to 7-11 and buying 78 wax packs by the handful. and constantly seeing Woody Fryman, and screaming when one of those "trophy cards" came out. haha.

Now, I still love the hobby and seeing a great item, but I see the new cards really are just "lottery now". The thrill of building a set, etc. seems to be gone. And yes, the Strasburg card itself.If I had 8000+ to spend on sports stuff, Id buy cool memorabilia or some awesome tobacco cards, not a single card that can blind you for life when the reflection off the sun hits your eyes.

I hear that guy Ty Cobb is going to be something. Might want to pick up a few of his cards for that kind of money in case he makes it big. :)

Somebody help me on this please........is the price because of the "1 of 1",,,,,or because of the player on it,and the "1 of 1"?

I only ask because there is probably another version of this card,maybe missing one part of the shiny element,and #'d "1 of 5,000",,,,,,right?

And maybe another version,with no #'s,that may be the identical card,but worth nothing minus the serial #'s...........

Clayton

there are other versions of it, they will be slightly different, probably a different color or no refractor or something, I bet there are minimum 5 tiers of this same card. It is done in most sets, they put 1 of 1 press plates or parallels, it is a marketing tool and works very well for the card companies.

Bets card i ever pulled was a Messier Auto jersey #/ 25 which i sold on the bay for $625 usd at the time when the dollar was at .63 so around $900 cdn. Not bad for a card i won in a pack war.

Superfractors are the very pinnacle of modern baseball card collecting. This is the best card anyone will ever own of Strasburg. The only difference between the million+ dollar 1/1 PSA 8 T206 Wagner is the fact that Wagner is a Hall of Famer. This is peanuts compared to the Wagner. What's crazier, the fact that someone would pay over a million dollars for one card or over $10,000.

Clayton you are missing the point, this is the super platinum chrome ultra refractor metal multiple orgasm 1/1 rookie card (well, third year card if you count his 08 rookie cards) of the greatest pitcher of all time (ok, he has yet to pitch an inning, but whatever).

that is funny stuff!

What's crazier? I would have to go with spending $10K on a card of a player who has yet to play a game in the big leagues.

Just my $.02.

Baseball cards are subjective, so I don't understand the hate towards modern card collecting/cards. People buy what they want, just as you do. I'm fairly certain hardly any modern collectors would give you grief over spending some insane price for a vintage common you need for a set. How much money have you spent on common non-Hall of Famer vintage cards. What's the difference.

:D:D Thanks Peter,I didn't realize it was the multiple orgasm refractor-that explains it,and it all makes sense now :D

Thanks again,Clayton

Actually I kinda agree with you on commons, as I am not a set builder.

Is there really such a thing as a prewar common ?

My guess is many of the posts that ridicule the collecting of modern cards are made by folks who collect graded, pre-war cards. And some of these folks probably don't appreciate posts in other threads by the faction of Net54 that thinks collectors who prefer graded cards aren't real collectors or are "slab collectors, not card collectors."

So, to recap, it's not OK to criticize collectors who prefer graded cards over raw ones, but it is perfectly fine to criticize collectors who choose to spend their money on modern cards instead of pre-war or vintage issues.

Seriously? Now there is some serious disposable discretionary income at work.

I would have to think that these folks are willing to lay out $10,000+ just to say they had the "only" one. I can't think that they seriously think of it as an investment. Hell he's a pitcher and besides the fact he hasn't thrown the first pitch in the majors yet he could be one serious arm injury away from amounting to nada.

I wonder if his mother still has her first ultrasound image of him, now there's a real rookie for ya!

I'm curious if the person who wins it intends on holding it for a short period of time to do a flip. Granted, it could be a gamble but for during the first game or two, I doubt it. Guy comes up, throws a great first game or two, and throw it back up for hopefully a profitable flip.

In any event, to each his own. There are just way too many facets to this hobby to say one is wrong/dumb and the other is right/smart. Whatever makes someone happy with the hobby is OK in my book.

Just as an FYI his 08 cards are minor league cards. This is his true rookie card and as mentioned before this is THE card everyone wants. Yes there are plenty of different versions on this card but even the base chrome card is going for around $25-30 which is nuts for something out of a brand new product without an autograph.

No one seems to complain about Pujols rookie autograph rookie cards which sell for $5000+ all that time. LeBron has some crazy expensive cards like $15K+++ it's just the nature of the beast.

James G

Since I know absolutely nothing about modern cards, may I ask how did the seller find this apparently unique card? Did he open a pack and hit the jackpot? How are these distributed?

To average folks (meaning those who don't collect sports cards) we are all insane because we are willing to pay hundreds, if not thousands of dollar for a piece of cardboard, whether it's 1/1 modern card, or rare vintage cards.

So James does that mean an 85 Topps McGwire is a minor league card? Wasn't that a Team USA card too? Not sure I understand the difference, particularly where the major companies for years have been making cards of all these guys long before they are in the majors.

Fair enough, but it seems to me there is a difference between buying a card of a HOFer and just speculating on a kid who has never thrown a pitch in the majors -- particularly where the "scarcity" of the card is completely artificial as a result of a deliberate manufacturing decision.

Barry,
I hang around another site that caters to the "prospector" and the guy selling this particular card posted his "hit" on that site. If I remember correctly, he purchased a case of the product and got this one in there. I do not know the insertion rate of these superfractor 1/1 cards but I would guess one per case.

I stopped picking up modern (Though I do want a Mauer RC) but still like to hang around the other site and see what people are getting. It's all interesting to me.

Thanks Bill. So it's kind of like finding a lottery ticket.

One thing that strikes me odd is that there is a history of these unique or nearly unique multi-thousand dollar cards going back to the 1990's. And if I am correct nearly all of them turn out to be worth a fraction of the purchase price, or in some cases become virtually worthless. Given that fact, why do people keep spending such insane amounts for them? Do any of these $10,000+ cards actually increase in value over the years? It's easy to say people can collect whatever they want and pay whatever they think something is worth, but nobody likes to see their $10,000 card one day be worth fifty bucks.

Pretty much like the lottery.

The only thing I can think of as to why this is going so high is the potential buyer wants to get it before he makes it to the pros and hope that Strasburg has a big couple of initial games. After that, maybe he can flip it for more. That is just a guess to me though, I never got into the prospecting end of things.

I've never seen any modern cards sell like this initially and then keep going up. I guess the Pujols Bowman Chrome autographed rookie card goes against that grain but other than that, I can't think of anything and I don't even remember if that card sold highly at the outset. I do know that card was a redemption.

To go back and answer why people continue to drop money on cards knowing that past history shows them dropping? I can only think that they believe the card they are after THIS time will be different.

I guess everybody likes to think they are a little smarter than the next guy.

Or, some guys just like to blow money because they can. Every day people pay a lot of money for brand new vehicles that they know will depreciate as soon as they leave the car lot. There are people who spend what I would call outrageous prices for a bottle of wine that they intend to drink....Maybe the buyer of this card doesn't care if it depreciates? I also doubt the buyer will look to flip right away...if he's smart he knows that taking himself out of the equation probably already makes it a sure loser.

I am just thankful that a guy with such disposable income is not in the pre-war market competing with me for cards I want. IMO, there is a 50/50 shot that this card isn't worth more then $100 in 10 years.

I've found plenty of guys with what seems like unlimited funds collecting pre-war cards. :(

Me too - I'm just glad this fellow doesn't make it 1 more :)

Could be one of those rare birds that collects shiny and vintage.

Two things
 

I think Leon was going for a line similar to the vintage collectors are like a pimiple on an elephant's butt (and when I googled that line, there is actually a legit term for that expression) in terms of the overall part of the card market. If he had another line in mind; let's hear it -- :)

And the psychology of buying cards like this is actually pretty simple. Everyone wants to be proven right, and when the new card market was actually like a mini stock market in the late 80's-early 90's everyone remembered when they hit on players like Cecil Fielder who went from 3 cent obscurity to $3 overnight in 1990 and forgot the Gregg Jeffries mess when his 1988 Donruss went from a market high of $10 early in 1988 to the quarter it books for today (and the real worth is less than that)

You always remember the hits; not the stiffs and the memory of the hits is what keeps you going in this "prospector" game.

We always talk here (at least some of us) about being just caretakers of these cards; well, the new card people in many cases move those cards even quicker. And that is still true today. About 2004; anything unopened 2001 was HOT because of two players: Prior and Pujols. Prior, well he never was the same after 2003. Pijols, assuming nothing ever comes out about HGH or anything else, is now eligible for the HOF and will make the HOF and on the 1st ballot when his time comes.

So, even in 2004; with players with SOME experience, you still had the 50/50 shot.

At a local store in 1984; just as the season began, I remember a person saying he was going for the Mets and wasn't really interested in Mattingly. By the end of the year; he realized he blew that opportunity. It happens, you hit on some and lose on some. But to got back, you ALWAYS remember the winners


Rich

Rich - the thing is, that even if Jeffries made the HOF, that card wouldn't be worth $10 nowadays. Same here - I can't fathom this card could possibly be worth $20k 20 years from now, even if the guy is the second coming of Tom Seaver. So, even when you guess correctly and "win" you still lose.

Matt
 

In reality the point is to "win" about the player's performance and remember that you won about how the player did on the field. As it turned out, with very rare exceptions; cards from the over produced era (87-94) are not worth nearly as much as they were back in those days. In fact; the standard buy price for a collection from that era is 10 for a penny. I looked at a collection of nearly 800K cards a few weeks ago and the seller originally wanted 30K and eventually realized within a couple of hours that $1500 was all he would ever get and although they did not get sold; he will spend more in storage over the years than just getting out of those cards.

It's about the turn over and yes the 88 Donruss Jeffries, which in early 88 sold for $10 in the NY area; is part of a set which you can purchase for less than that individual price.

I think it will take about 30 more years to clean up that over produced mess and we'll probably have landfills before these cards ever come close to those values again

The card is currently at $9200 with nearly a week left to go- yikes!!

And the high bidder is a 0 feedback guy. That makes you wonder....

It doesn't make me wonder. It just proves you can register for eBay while inebriated!

I put a link to this card when it was at a $20,000 bin. For a joke I asked what would you rather have this Strasburgh or a 1951 Bowman Mantle SGC 8 (they both are asking for the same price). I was just trying to show how stupid modern rookie card collecting can be for a card that has a player with no MLB experience. Even if he is the next Koufax this card will be worth less than half of what it goes for 10 years from now. Its like buying a brand new car, it will never hold it's value.