Most overrated baseball superstar ever?
 

My choice is Pete Rose.

Other than hitting singles and running over catchers in all-star games, he didn't really do anything well. Yes two gold gloves, but his defensive WAR numbers show him as a consistent liability in the field. Terrible base stealer (in an era when teams counted on their table setter to steal a lot of em). Even with his durability, the only reason he got near Cobb's record was the abundance of plate appearances at the top of the big red machine for all those years.

Barely hit over .300 lifetime playing in a fairly hitter-friendly park for many years.
Lifetime OPS well inferior to Gwynn and Carew, despite those guys playing on bad teams with less protection behind them.

I think that about covers it :)

Reggie Jackson.

Makes me sick to see his number on the same wall as real Yankees. His legacy is baffling to me. The guy hit 563 home runs, but hung around for 5 seasons to hit 99 of them while putting up a combined 5 season WAR of 0.0. That is not a typo either.

Does he get into the HOF with 462 home runs?

I'd guess he still easily would have. Add in about 12 all star appearances before your cutoff and going out of his mind over the course of five world series (especially for the Yankees).

But yeah, his career would've had a better legacy if he'd bowed out a few years earlier. Probably hung around for the salary too. Looks like actually made more money in those last 5 zero WAR years than the rest of his career combined

Jeter. He is better than other HOFer's but his stature in baseball is just over hyped more than anyone else.

definitely Jeter...…..

All time Mickey Mantle by a country mile.

To you fine gentlemen that said Jeter please name one player that tried harder.:) I am not a fan and don't own a single Jeter card. I did go to a lot of Yankee games and he seemed to try his absolute hardest on every play.

name 1 player that trier harder...………..Pete Rose.

Amen brother. If he played anywhere else he would be Paul Molitor

I agree, Charlie Hustle! He willed himself to be the player he was. Was not blessed with as much skill as most HOFers but got there on his own.

Just go to baseballreference.com and see the amont of times Jeter led the league in any category and then Mantle. Mantle on this list is absurd by a country mile:D

I have had that discussion with a fellow member and long time friend a few times. We always agree they both gave it all.:)

Nolan Ryan

Not Pete Rose but "Opinions are Like Assholes Everyone has One"

I completely agree. His stats stink. Beyond over rated. I don't care how fast he could throw. I don't care that he played for some crummy teams. A lot of pitchers did and they still had great stats.
324 wins and 292 losses. Pretty close to being a 500 pitcher. I guess that would be average. 27 years in the majors.

Going to throw out some bait: Lloyd Waner

Career WAR of 27.9 ties him for 931 on the career WAR list and is the lowest ranked HOFer in the list of top 1000 players.

Lifetime .316 average. Not too shabby.

Jeter , way over hyped. no power, no speed - he stayed healthy and accumulated a lot of hits. yea hes a hof but boy, hes very over rated

5 rings got Catfish Hunter into the Hof without counting stats. Reggie Jackson would have made it easy with a MVP, 2 WS MVP and 5 rings.

Most overrated baseball player?
 

I've got one current and a couple 30+ year old mentions, as I've watched them play and still can't figure out whey people think they are good or "great":

1) Bryce Harper- I'll never get it. He's laughing all the way to the bank.

2) Bobby Bonilla, Strawberry, Dykstra, et al- nope, not that good.

3) Ozzie Smith- he turned flips on the field and batted .260. Seems like a nice guy though.

There are people who are/were fans of course, but that's my group.

He turned 1 spectacular year into a $300M contract. Good player but definitely the most overrated active player.

LOL on both points. Mantle is 7th all-time in OPS+. I'm sorry, but when the names on an all-time list for league adjusted one base plus power are Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Gehrig, Trout and Hornsby, how, exactly, are you overrated?

And Jeter "tried harder"?

This is a joke post, right? Jeter is tied for 60th in career WAR, yet he's tenth in career plate appearances. A 5+ WAR is considered All Star level. In 18 seasons of at least 119 games (and more than 145 in all but two of those), he had a 5+ WAR 6 times. 6 all-star seasons in 18.

He was a singles hitter that hit accidentally hit an occasional extra base hit, and played subpar defense. He's in the Hall because he hit for average, played longer than Jesus was on the Earth, and was Captain of the Yankees.

If we're talking about Reggie sticking around too long to pad his stats, Jeter is guilty of the same. His last five seasons, he was a below average offensive player. This is 2010-2014. At the end of the 2009 season, he had 2,747 hits. His last five seasons, when he amassed 718 hits, his OPS+ was 94. 6 points below league average. Only a decent 2012 season saves that last five from being a complete dumpster fire. 2010-2014 he was worth a combined 3.8 bWAR. The New York Yankees paid Derek Jeter $82,239,364 to be worth, on average, about 0.7 WAR per season.

He was terrible. They paid him $21,641,947 per win above replacement.

I would agree that Ryan's a bit overrated-he walked too many batters for my taste.

But please tell me that you're not using win-loss record as the basis for your comment. Nolan Ryan was, objectively, the best pitcher in the National League in 1987. Led the NL in ERA (2.76), ERA+ (142) and FIP (2.47). He struck out a league-leading 270 batters at age 40, finished 5th in the Cy Young, and finished with an 8-16 record.

He probably should have won the Cy Young. FIP shows he was the best pitcher at controlling the things only a pitcher can directly determine themselves. He outpitched teammate Mike Scott across the board, and Scott was 16-13. If Ryan had finished with that record, he wins the award. Steve Bedrosian ended up winning it with 40 saves. Rick Sutcliff, Rick Reuschel and Orel Hershiser finished ahead of him, and Dwight Gooden tied him. He outpitched them all.

By your logic, Ryan was below average because he had a .333 winning percentage. :rolleyes:

Since his MVP 2015 season, Harper's 162 game averages 2016-2019:

.265 AVG, 107 runs, 34 doubles, 34 home runs, 109 RBI, 114 walks, 159 K, .386 OBP/.507 SLG/.893 OPS, 131 OPS+.

Baseball Reference lists the following similar batters through age 26:

1. Andruw Jones
2. Justin Upton
3. Ken Griffey Jr
4. Eddie Mathews
5. Jose Canseco
6. Mike Trout
7. Ruben Sierra
8. Miguel Cabrera
9. Frank Robinson
10. Manny Machado

Three Hall of Famers, and two locks for Cooperstown. I understand that subconsciously, a lot of people don't like him. But a 27 year old guy that hits 35 home runs a year, walks well over 100 times, outproduces the league by 30+ percent, and has a ridiculous ceiling....I'd take that any day of the week.

Counterpoint:

Looking at Baseball Reference, between 2013 and 2019, Harper accumulated 26.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for an average season of 3.80 WAR. Over the same period, Brett Gardner accumulated 27.0 WAR for an average season of 3.86.

So, the operative question isn't whether you'll take that level of production any day of the week. Rather, are you willing to pay twice as much for it? :)

Most overrated player
 

Bill- the term "overrated" combines things players can and cannot control. It doesn't matter if I "like" Bryce Harper or not, the fact is his former team won the Series the very year after he left- if that's not a "hello" fact, I don't know what is... Although I admit I don't follow him closely, I'd bet old Bryce is a "master of the meaningless homerun" as well ( a la Adam Dunn, who was good for hitting dingers when his team was up by 8 or down by 8). The combo of press+talent+ his ego should translate to Harper setting the world on fire- and a 265 average isn't doing it. He is the very definition of overrated- he's paid way too much and produces too little, while his teams wallow.

I agree on Jeter, Ryan, and Rose. I'll add Banks and Koufax.

Not great but an easy way to ID players that accumulated WAR or counting stats based on playing well past their expiration or useful date.
Take Games played divided by WAR for hitters and IP divided by WAR for pitchers.


Jeter 38.53 Games per WAR
Rose 44.69 Games per WAR
Banks 37.29 Games per WAR
Point of reference Ruth 15.44 Not counting his pitching WAR, therefore lower is clearly better.

2 guys that don't get nearly the same press.
Eddie Mathews 24.85 Games per WAR
Rod Carew 30.37 Games per WAR


Koufax 43.77 IP per WAR
Ryan 64.43 IP per WAR
Point of reference Walter Johnson 38.93.

1 guy that doesn't get enough press.
Pedro Martinez 32.83 IP per WAR

If you don't like WAR, the guys I mentioned have the counting stats.

But if you go by the defensive WAR numbers, Ozzie's defense was every bit as good (and valuable) as his reputation. He was the best infielder in the history of the game, and by a big margin.

It has me envision that old Bugs Bunny baseball cartoon. "First base Ozzie Smith, second base Ozzie Smith, shortstop Ozzie Smith....."

Most overrated baseball player?
 

Hi John- yes, Ozzie was a wonderful one-dimensional player (okay, I'll give another 1/2 dimension for being a steady but not monstrous stolen base guy). I actually "like" him, but again the term "overrated" is key. Why isn't Dave Concepcion in the Hall, by the way? Eerily similar offensive stats, same position, GREAT defensive player, led the 76 Reds in Game Winnings RBIs, similar tenure in MLB, on 2 WS winners. Concepcion is a wonderful player who is not "overrated". And don't get me started on Phil Rizzuto being in the Hall...

In his prime, I've always thought that Pedro was the best pitcher to ever lace 'em up.

Naturally the lack of career bulk really hurts his legacy (with how so many people focus mostly on that side of someone's numbers), but it makes me roll my eyes when those "greatest of all time" lists assume that the stone age pitchers were the best to every play.

You'd think it'd be beyond obvious that the game wasn't nearly the same back then when Young and Johnson started five games per week

Ozzie's lifetime overall WAR was almost double Concepcion's (which includes his offensive production also being more valuable). He had a lot better plate discipline and stole almost twice as many bases.

Defensively, Concepcion was exceptional. But he can't compare to Ozzie's numbers there either. Then again, no one can!

I consider 580 career stolen bases monstrous. Sure Ozzie didn’t have power and that hurts his OPS. But he was a VERY good hitter for a 5+ year period and finished with 2,460 hits. He got on base. And one of the best defensive players ever. My dad used to say “hit it to Ozzie” when they were in a tough spot. Invariably they would and he would bail them out of a tough situation. Long live the Wizard!

Most overrated baseball player?
 

Ozzie defenders- gents, he's a HOF player, I didn't say he was a scrub. The bar is "overrated", so when some of the other contributors stole a couple of my picks, I went to Ozzie. (I couldn't name Rizzuto because I didn't see him play, but boy oh boy...)

Most overrated baseball player?
 

Holy cow- I just looked at your user names. NOW I know why you are defending Ozzie, you're StL fans! I win by default:)

My "cards" refers just to sportscards. I have no Stl basis.

But speaking of, I also assumed that your OH was Ohio (thus Concepcion) :p

Saying that right after talking about accumulated WAR.. it IS a counting stat.

I know he's not a top tier guy, but Rock Raines making the Hall is a joke. He was good at 1 stat (stealing bags), if that's all you have to do why isn't Kenny Lofton in the hall? He never even had 200 hits in a season even though he had over 700 plate appearances 4x's. He wasn't even a top 20 in MVP voting his last 10 years along with no all-star appearances. 2600 hits to boot. I'll never get it.

They let in 2160 career hit Larry Walker last year. In his amazing career he got 200 hits once. It has become the Hall of OK let him in.:rolleyes:

I was going to go with Ryan because of the walks but I completely forgot the insane lack of contact hitters got off him. He averaged 6.6 hits per nine innings for 27 YEARS! :O

For me it might be Jack Morris. 3.90 ERA, under 2500 K's, 200+ wild pitches among other things. He really only has the wins plus Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. Sure, Maz is mostly remembered for his dramatic homer off the Yanks but he was an elite defender and more defensive guys need to be in (coughBOB GRICHcough)

I'm a Tiger fan and I'd agree that his HoF credentials are questionable at best. I can't ever remember him being referred anywhere close to superstar status though.

Nolan Ryan would easily be second on my list.

One thing I've never seen mentioned is how pitcher-friendly the Astrodome was in the '80s. The home/road splits are night and day. Look at Mike Scott's as well. Both of those guys had the numbers of a #3 or #4 in the rotation national league starter on the road.

Ryan/strikeouts and Rose/base hits. Shiny things that they hung around long enough to do more of than anyone else. Quantity well over quality.

As far as the hobby goes, Ryan is my clear cut #1 for overrated sportscard lore.

The career overall stats may not be as impressive as other top pitchers, but Ryan could do things that nobody else could. Ryan had the most awe inspiring Wow factor of any pitcher ever - he still holds Guiness Book Records for fastest pitch, he threw more no-hitters than anyone...ever...in the entire history of the sport. You don't have a "nothing to average" pitcher come out and toss 7 no-hitters...and how many 1-hitters? Could you imaging Ryan pitching in Dodger Stadium in the mid-1960's with the higher pitchers mound like Koufax had?
Sorry some of you feel the way you do about Ryan.

Yes he was all those things. Doesn't change the fact that he would've had around a league-average ERA overall for his career if he hadn't pitched in Houston throughout the '80s.

He was one of a kind, awe-inspiring, and insanely difficult to hit a baseball off of. But none of that translated into being highly effective throughout his career.

Nolan Ryan’s ERA+ was higher during his time with the Angels and Rangers than it was in his time with the Astros.

I wonder what the league average was for career. His career OPS was 99.

Ryan was effective enough to notch well over 300 wins on poor/avg. teams. Put him on pennant winners and he could have come close to 400 wins. He has 51 MLB records (some of which will never be broken), earn 1st year ballot HOF with 98.8%. Yeah, his walks were the downfall which led to higher ERA, but when you pitch an astronomical amount of pitches kinda comes with the territory. Similar to blasting Cy Young for most losses, or hammering Pujols Ripken and Hank Aaron for tops on the list for most Double Plays hit into. Ryan was quite effective.

The average WAR of a Hall of Fame electee is actually trending up, especially over the last 20 years.

I mean, when was the last time we had a really terrible BBWAA electee? Other than Baines and maybe Morris, even the vets have been solid.

On original topic - I agree on Jackson and Rose.

No Hall of Famer, but Joe Carter and his RBI’s is a classic example.

Ryan was great at what he did, strikeouts and having dominant enough stuff to produce 7 no hitters. I will never argue he wasn't good or shouldn't be in the HOF, but some fans think he's a Top 5 or 10 pitcher of all time and, IMO he's not close to that. Thats why I think he's overrated.

John may not be guilty but I will admit I am! :)This is a great thread, I enjoy it.

OPS+ is a worthless stat to compare different players from different eras. No one is taking .298/.421/.557/.977 over .325/.398/.579/.977. It also doesn't adjust for park even though it claims to. Proof that Mantle is overrated. He might be top 20-25, but no where close to 7th.

"Might be top 20-25"......?

Mantle's lifetime road OPS was .958. His WAR/season is also top 10 caliber.

I understand people thinking he's a little overrated (though I don't agree), but this is taking it way too far.

Yeah, I am little bored ... waiting for the "Last Dance". Here is my ramble, right or not that's ok. Effective vs. Efficient. Ryan ranks #20 on career WAR for pitchers - just behind Steve Carlton at #19, and ahead of such notables as Bob Gibson, Carl Hubbell, Kershaw, Bob Feller and Verlander. Pretty decent if you consider WAR to be effectiveness. Now efficiency, I will admit Ryan not very efficient - he pitched sooo many pitches to get the average out and win. Strikeout pitchers do tend to be less efficient than easier throwing grounder/fly ball/control pitchers - takes more pitches to get the out - more pitches thrown has higher chance of walks, more walks tends to give up more runs.

Back to original topic, most overrated. A lot of modern-ish players listed, but going way back I might say Joe Jackson was overrated. Looking at his stats compared to contemporaries Cobb, Speaker, Hornsby & Heilman a bit later, Jackson overall not quite as good as you might expect.

Harold Baines anyone? I guess he's actually fairly rated by most except HOF voters. I definitely agree with Rose, Ryan, and Jeter.

Rose bated just over .300 for his career and while his average definitely fell off over the end of his career... he stuck around in order to be the hit king and people treat him as though it wasn't as such. Should be a HOFer based on his play but would be a middle of the road HOFer IMO and doesn't belong anywhere near the greats of the game even though most fans put him in that camp.

Ryan, like Rose, just played a long time. Also, like Rose, is a middle of the road HOFer but gets unjustifiably ranked among the best of the best by many fans.

Derek Jeter, in my mind, was seldom the best player on his team and should still be fighting to get in the HOF (albeit would eventually make it). I think his image and the fact he had a long career in the biggest market in the world is why he's ranked where he is.

Harper, also is overrated but not nearly as much as Kris Bryant. Bryant is today's Kevin Mass and thankfully people are starting to realize it. Still he is massively overrated IMO.

On the flip side it would be nice to look at the most underrated players. I would throw Dale Murphy, Lefty O'Doul, Gwynn, and Molitor in that camp to start. IMO, Murphy and O'Doul should be in the hall (even though O'Doul had a very short career). Sisler and Heilmann are also very underrated as well for batting over .400 but most casual fans have no clue who they even are (I don't care what era they played in).

The OP labeled his thread most overrated baseball superstar ever, not most overrated HOFer ever.

Harold Baines was a steady quality player, but I would never have called him a superstar.


My three all-time favorite players have been mentioned in this thread, but I do not think any of them are overrated. I would gladly pay to see any of them play at any time of their careers.
.

Actually, he was fairly rated by Hall of Fame voters, meaning the BBWAA, who never voted him anywhere close to election in 15 years. Another veteran's committee fail.

I'm not sure these fall in the same category. Ryan as a 2 WAR season in his second to last season, and a 5.2 WAR season the year before that. Looking at Rose, you have to go back 8 seasons to get to his last 2 WAR season.

While Ryan's season wasn't going well (4.88 ERA through 13 starts), it's worth noting that he retired not because of ineffectiveness, but because of an injury.

McCovey.

Still managed 521 homers and a .889 OPS despite missing plenty of games over his final 10 seasons and hitting behind Mays. What career numbers would those two have had if they'd been reversed in the lineup all those years? Many managers back then were pretty vocal about how unusually much they pitched around McCovey

As a hitter, anyway. Never saw him play, but according to the defensive WAR stats, he needed a cartoon-sized novelty glove to play first base.

I’ll go with bruce sutter for most overrated. For most underrated, Any of the top negro league players other than Paige maybe. Especially the pre-1940s guys.

Gardner is the little engine that could. He's a good player. He's steady, never spectacular. He's been an All Star once, and has won one Gold Glove. He also plays a good number of his games at center field, so he's getting a WAR adjustment Harper doesn't. He also played 79 more games over that period, a half season's worth. 334 more plate appearances.

Harper is erratic. That's his biggest problem. He has a great season, then a below average one. Another season that would have put him in contention for the MVP had he not gotten hurt, then a down season.

Harper has a real strong arm, but he's not a good defensive outfielder. Gardner is. He makes up a good deal of WAR from his defense. Offensively, though, there's no comparison. Gardner is 4% above league average as an offensive player 2013-2019. Harper is 39% above league average with a 139 OPS+. 35% better than Gardner. If he keeps that up, stays healthy, and has a few more big seasons, which I think he will, that's Hall of Fame caliber. Look at some of the players with a career OPS+ of around 140:

143-Eddie Mathews, Harmon Killebrew
142-Cap Anson, Mike Piazza
141-Eddie Collins, Chipper Jones, Larry Walker
140-Vlad Guerrero, Duke Snider
139-Reggie Jackson

Harper is at 137 now, 139 since his rookie season. Stathead has an interesting "did you know" on Harper's page: his 1.149 OPS with RISP was the highest by a Phillies player since Mike Schmidt in 1981.

And after a slow start, Harper had a really strong second half in 2019. His numbers after the All Star Break (July 9):

.270 AVG, 67 games, 45 runs, 19 HR, 52 RBI, 40 BB, .376 OBP/.564 SLG/.941 OPS. 147 OPS+

He was OPS'ing 1.841 in 22 spring training PAs, with 3 HR and 11 RBI before baseball was called for the virus. Obviously that's not against constant MLB caliber pitching. But he was crushing the ball. 20 bases (3 doubles, 3 homers) in 18 AB. That Phillies team has some real offensive potential.

The fact that his team won the World Series the year after he left is interesting. I certainly wouldn't call that a "hello" fact. There's nothing "factual" about it, besides that it happened. I would put their World Series win more on the fact that their two starting pitching studs were absolutely dominant in the post season, than anything to do with Harper's departure.

Strasburg was 5-0 in 6 games (5 starts), with a 1.98 ERA and 47 Ks in 36 1/3 IP.
Scherzer was 3-0 in 6 games (5 starts), with a 2.40 ERA and 37 Ks in 30 IP.

When your top two starters are a combined 8-0 in the playoffs, you'll be almost impossible to beat.

Oh, and besides those two dominant starting pitchers, the Nationals offense hit 231 home runs, ranked first in the National League in AVG, OBP, third in SLG, and second in OPS. So, they hit a little.

As far as Harper goes.

First...batting average? Did I slip through a wormhole back to the year 1985? The guy gets on base. He walks like crazy, and has ridiculous power potential. Give me a guy that has a .400 OBP and hits the ball out of the park. But just a FYI, he's not a .265 hitter. He's a lifetime .276 hitter, and a .278 hitter the last five years.

And, next time you're going to make an assumption...don't. Actually look it up, because it's not hard to do.

Last year, with runners in scoring position (RISP), Harper hit .357 with 10 HR and 75 RBI...in only 126 at bats. As I stated in my last post, Harper's 1.149 OPS (.459 OBP/.690 SLG) with RISP is the highest by a Phillies player since Mike Schmidt in 1981.

With any men on base, he hit .331 with 20 HR, 99 RBI in 254 AB. He slashed .422 OBP/.665 SLG/1.087 OPS.

So, 20 of his 35 home runs came with men on base. Those are all elite numbers.

He produces too little? What part of a 1.149 OPS with men in scoring position leads you to believe that? Harper was 8th in the NL with 114 RBI-a career high, a year after he recorded 100 RBI for the first time.

Oh, and by the way, the last five years? Harper's 144 OPS+ is the fifth best in baseball (minimum 2,000 AB)

1. Mike Trout 183
2. J.D. Martinez 152
3. Nelson Cruz 151
4. Joey Votto 146
5. Bryce Harper 144 (tied with Freddie Freeman)

If I eliminate the extremes of his MVP 2015 season, and his down 2016, his 136 OPS+ is still tenth in baseball.

He's an elite hitter, any way you care to cut it. The guy walks like crazy.

The last five seasons, most walks in baseball:

1. Joey Votto 569
2. Mike Trout 534
3. Bryce Harper 529

The last five seasons, highest SLG In baseball (min. 2,000 AB):

1. Mike Trout .605
2. J.D. Martinez .585
3. Nolan Arenado .575
9. Bryce Harper .535

And three of the guys ahead of him, Freddie Freeman and Trevor Story (.537) and Charlie Blackmon (.536) are within 2 points. Oh, and Blackmon and Story both play at Coors Field. As does Nolan Arenado. When you consider their SLG splits, Harper's a top 5-6 slugger in baseball the last five seasons.

Bryce Harper is a top 5 offensive player in baseball the last half decade. The last three seasons, he's easily top ten. Is he paid too much? Aren't they all?

So, no, he doesn't produce too little. That's a patently false statement. And "his teams wallow"? You know there are 40 players on a playoff roster, right? Unlike other sports, a hitter only comes to the plate again after 8 others have taken their cuts. Harper can't take 50 shots a game like Kobe Bryant or James Harden. He can't throw the ball 50 times like Drew Brees, or take slap shots from all over the ice like Alex Ovechkin. That's part of the beauty of baseball. I'm not sure how much you think one position player can impact a team's overall win loss.

Let's look at his recent teams.

2019 Phillies 81-81. The pitching staff was 11th of 15 in NL ERA. Not sure what Harper could have done there.
2018 Nats 82-80. They clearly underachieved. Not all on Harper. Pythagorean W-L was 92-70. 771 runs scored, 682 runs allowed.
2017 Nats 97-65 Lost the NLDS 3-2 to the Cubs
2016 Nats 95-67 Lost the NLDS 3-2 to the Dodgers

I would hardly call his teams "wallowers". Last year's Phillies team was pretty much rebuilt. Reamulto, Harper, Segura and McCutchen were all brought in. Some teams need time to adjust. The '18 Nats underperformed. The 2016 and 2017 were among the best teams in baseball.

Again, factually inaccurate.

Any other generalizations and assumptions you want disproven?

He might be top 20-25?

http://williamgregory.net/images/laughing.gif

You're so obtuse, it's comical.

I ran a report for all position players in the modern era (from 1919 forward), sorted by WAR. Minimum 2,000 games played. 201 players in total. Mickey Mantle is 11th all-time in WAR for modern era position players.

But hold on. I exported the workbook that Baseball Reference's index tool created, and imported it into Microsoft Excel. I then eliminated all data but WAR, and games played. I then created a simple formula to compute the rate (# of games played per WAR) for all those players.

These are the big boys. The position players that have created the most value (WAR) of all modern era players.

Mickey Mantle has the 6th-best rate of WAR of the 201 players with over 2,000 games played in the modern era. He's behind only Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig and Willie Mays.

First column ranks rate of WAR. Second column ranks total WAR
https://i.imgur.com/843ZKUw.png

Mantle played in 2,401 games, and generated 110.2 WAR. 2,401 games is 14.82098765432099 162 game seasons. Per 162 games played, he averaged 7.44 WAR. An MVP season is 8 WAR. His average season was MVP caliber.

And his peak? His peak is ridiculous. From 1952, when he was 20 years old, through the 1962 season, when he turned 30, he played 1,579 games and amassed 89.2 bWAR. 1,579 games played is 9.746913580246914 162 game seasons. That means during his 11 year peak, he averaged 9.75 WAR per 162 games played.

So please, for the love of God--stop embarrassing yourself, man.

Mickey Mantle is inarguably one of the ten best offensive players of the modern era, and one of the truly elite players in baseball history. End of discussion.

Oh, and by the way, let's look just at the players in the game, in their primes, at the same time Mantle was. A 11 year period from 1954 to 1964.

During this period:
Mickey Mantle was between age 22-32
Willie Mays 23-33
Frank Robinson 20-28
Hank Aaron 20-30
Duke Snider 27-37
Stan Musial 33-42
Eddie Mathews 22-32
Orlando Cepeda 20-26
Rocky Colaviro 21-30
Al Kaline 19-29
Ernie Banks 23-33
Joe Adcock 26-36
Roger Maris 22-29
Jackie Jensen 27-34
Roy Sievers 27-37
Gil Hodges 30-39

Here's a link to the spreadsheet. While their ages don't perfectly line up, it's pretty close for some of the greatest hitters in the history of the game. Besides Mantle, Mays is in his prime. Aaron is in his prime. This includes several of Frank Robinson's prime years. All of Eddie Mathew's prime. Al Kaline's Prime. Ernie Banks' prime. A good chunk of Orlando Cepeda's prime. Even Stan Musial, playing into his early 40s, is still a force to be reckoned with for this decade, though his later years will have dropped his averages.

You get the point.

Look at Mantle, against some of the best the game has ever produced, at the same times of their careers. He tops them all. Nobody in the Majors combined Mantle's power and on base ability. And you'll notice, Mantle was a .312 hitter. His career average only dropped when his knees gave out, and he couldn't run anymore. In his prime, he was literally unstoppable.

https://i.imgur.com/H5d46dP.png

Just stop with this 20-25 BS.

I think the 'stache just did a mike-drop, if that's still a thing!

Most over-rated players
 

I think "the 'stache" needs to switch to decaf... If ANY of you would go out of your way to watch Bryce Harper play a game, other than the "stache"- pay just to watch Harper, that is- signify by saying aye, please...
Stache- it sounds very much like I (and others who don't much care for Bryce) struck a nerve because you "like" him as a player. That's fine, you can favor anyone you like. The question at hand is "overrated" player, however, and I stand by my comments all day long. You carried on about him at length, like he is part of the Second Coming, and my response is "meh". He could well be on the ARod track, meaning the teams he leaves somehow become better for it. Is he a "good" player? Yes, but nothing more. Time will tell...
So, since the term "overrated" clearly connotes opinion on the part of the individual, I'll stick with my original picks. In the end, anyone who is how own biggest fan is likely "overrated", yes?
Does this count as a mic drop?

FWIW, I was talking about his Mantle argument.

Most overrated player
 

Hi Early- ah, I see. No questions Mantle was awesome. Harper? Not so much.

If anything, Mantle might be underrated. If he doesn't hurt himself in ST his rookie year...he may have been the best ever,

First of all, please stop with the condescending attitude. I don't need to switch anything. And I didn't need you to explain what overrated means. I'm not a child whose hand you need to hold.

Secondly, I didn't "carry on about him like he was part of the second coming". I took the time to provide factual evidence to disprove your absurd conclusion, where you relied on conjecture, and nothing more. Had you left at it "I feel he is overrated", fine. That is mere opinion, and one I have no issue with. But then you started tossing out reasons for your thinking so, reasons that had absolutely no basis in reality, whatsoever. And when you do so, you leave yourself open to rebuke.

First, trying to prove that his leaving the Nationals had anything at all to do with them winning the World Series, is plain silly. It is coincidence. You think the Nationals would have traded him if they could have afforded him? It's not the first time a team lets a star get away because of money, and it won't be the last.

Second, the rest of your post was complete fiction. You admitted that you didn't follow him that much, but assumed that he hit empty home runs (demonstrably false), and his teams "wallowed"; again, easily demonstrated to be inaccurate.

Furthermore, where did I say I would pay money just to watch him play? Another assumption. I don't even like Harper. I think he's an immature ass that needs to grow up. But to opine that he's not an elite talent is simply foolish. Or, do you think teams like the Phillies just give out $27 million a year to merely "good" players?

In the five years he's played since age 22, when some players are first starting to come to the Majors, he's had one historic MVP season, and another MVP caliber season cut short by injury:

In 2017, he hit .319, scored 95 runs, with 27 doubles, 29 home runs, 87 RBI, and slashed .413/.595/1.008, 250 total bases. In 111 games played. Take those numbers out to 158 games played, his average of the 159 games played in 2018 and in 17 in 2019, and this is where he ends up:

.319 AVG, 135 runs, 38 doubles, 41 home runs, 124 RBI, 356 total bases. 156 OPS+

So, he's the unanimous National League MVP in 2015. He finished 12th in the MVP in 2017, even though he missed 51 games, nearly a third of the season. Since the Nats went on to win 97 games in 2017, there's a very good chance a healthy Harper wins his second MVP in three years.

And that's merely "good"? Two MVP seasons before age 25?

His OPS+ In 2015 was 198.

Since 1919 (minimum 500 AB), there have been a grand total of 27 better individual seasons than Harper's 198 OPS+.

Here's the report on Baseball-Reference.

8 were by Babe Ruth
3 were by Lou Gehrig
3 were by Ted Williams
3 were by Rogers Hornsby
2 were by Jimmie Foxx
2 were by Mickey Mantle
1 each by Frank Robinson, Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Dick Allen, Norm Cash, Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi and Sammy Sosa.

Not bad for a "good" player, huh?

He had a drop off in performance in 2018, but that can be attributed to his recovering from his knee injury. He hyperextended it in August of 2017, and was able to return at the end of the season. But he struggled mightily, which isn't surprising given the injury. In 5 games before the end of the season, he hit .167 (5 for 18), and in the playoffs, .211 (4 for 19).

At the 2018 All Star break (July 17), through 94 games, he was hitting .214 and slashing .365/.468/.833. He'd struck out 102 times in 327 at bats. He did have 23 home runs, though. He clearly wasn't all the way back.

After the break, he did much better.

.300 AVG, 65 games, 46 runs, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 52 walks, 67 Ks, slash line .434/.538/.972.

His post All Star break numbers, taken to a full 162 game season, are MVP caliber:

.300 AVG, 115 runs, 50 doubles, 27 home runs, 115 RBI, 130 walks.

In an "off" 2018, he still hit 34 home runs, drove in 100, and led baseball with 130 walks.

In 2019, he hit 35 home runs, walked 99 times, and drove in a career high 114 runs.

So....

In 2015 unanimous National League MVP
2016 down season
2017 MVP front runner when he hurt his knee, hitting .326 slashing .419/.614/1.034.
2018 first half way below average after returning from injury, MVP second half
2019 All Star caliber season

You can stand by your comments. But when your statement is based purely in fantasy, don't take umbrage when somebody exposes your opinion as a dumb one. Even after I've produced indisputable evidence that Harper is, indeed, and elite offensive player, your only response is "meh", and, "I'll stick by my original opinion".

It's too bad that you're the kind of person that, when presented with facts, decides to stubbornly adhere to your original comment. Even after you admitted that you "really didn't pay attention" to him. That's okay, though. I know not to put any credence in anything you say about the game again.

Unsolicited remarks that you first made to others in this thread. But when one of them responds and treats you the same way, you tell them not to be condescending.

You may have a high level of baseball stat expertise, but your hypocrisy just surpassed it.

Overrated means public perception is that the player is better than they really are. Nothing you pointed out about Harper screams 300 million dollars to me. He is always going to be lumped in with Trout but he isn't Trout.

I think the MVP was Stanton's in 2017 no matter what Harper did. That was a monster year.

The Phillies were 2 games below .500 without Harper and then paid him 300 million to win one extra game. That makes him overrated in my book. He had no effect on his team despite being billed as its savior.

Lol...that was my first thought.

Uhh this is literally the opposite of a mic drop

I don't really understand how anyone can have a different opinion on Harper. The Phillies went 80-82 in 2018. They spent 300 million dollars on one player to go 81-81 in 2019.

What makes that player properly valued?

OK, but where was his former team without him? Oh yeah, World Series champs.

Stache- my final word on you:
First, as other commenters so astutely observed, you don't like it that I treated YOU, the way you treated others prior to my opinion on Harper. Frankly, it's fun to toy with clowns like you- you know, the kind who quote stats but couldn't play, and simply cannot believe it when someone doesn't bow to your stat prowess. (In other words, you may have been had by this "dumb" commenter, hoss…)
Finally, you will NOT change my mind on Harper- especially after referring to him as "erratic" yourself. Harper is a talented player who has been, to this point, forgettable- despite that talent, despite the notoriety, despite his ego- just a guy who provides stat geeks with caffeine fueled rage when someone doubts their paper conclusions. It's been 8 seasons and nobody cares about Bryce Harper but Harper himself- and you. Again, when you are the "stud" who leaves a team, and that team IMMEDIATELY wins the Series, the word "overrated" clearly is in play. Keep trying though- with another commenter- because "I know not to put any credence in anything you say about the game again".
Thanks nolemmings, packs, howard38, cardsagain74- you called it correctly, and better, than I did.

Thanks for proving my point. DiMaggio's lifetime road OPS was 1.016 and that is with losing age 28-30 seasons to World War 2.

LOL. WAR what is it good for? Absolutely nothing! Joe DiMaggio not even included in your list proves my point.

Bill- please don't ever actually 'drop the mic' - some of us thrive on your research!


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That changes nothing about whether Mantle had a top 10 career. It only shows how much better Dimaggio was than his base numbers (since he was a right-handed hitter in Yankee stadium in that era).

Your other post about Dimaggio is wrong too, because he said that his chart only includes those with at least 2000 games. Dimaggio's career didn't have that many (otherwise he would've been way up there too)

Another thing about the WAR numbers: look at the top 10 of that list, especially if you replace A Rod with Dimaggio. Most every day fans with no concept of the fancy modern statistical metrics would agree that those were pretty much the 10 best position baseball players of the modern era.

The only thing it doesn't account for is how much being a catcher hurts your offensive numbers, especially careerwise. Maybe substitute Bench in for someone.

But overall, the WAR numbers appear to do a great job of representing a player's ability, career accomplishments, and value to his team

Rollie Fingers seems overrated to me.

What I have always found amazing is the the lack of popularity of the Topps baseball cards of some of these guys on this list. Specifically, Musial, Robinson, and Mathews. Clearly some of the greatest hitters in the Topps era, yet their Topps cards (other than rookies) are priced ridiculously low compared to Mantle or Clemente.